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Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues. K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. Patwardhan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Regional Climate Change Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Scenarios for India and
Implications for Water Availability Implications for Water Availability IssuesIssues
K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarCIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,
BoulderBoulder
K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. PatwardhanPrasanna and S.K. Patwardhan
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, IndiaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Indian Summer Monsoon FlowIndian Summer Monsoon Flow
Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)
Summer Monsoon(mm/season)
Annual(mm/year)
Mean Annual Cycle of Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly RainfallAll-India Mean Monthly Rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
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300
350
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Ra
infa
ll (m
m/m
on
th)
All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)
Agriculture Agriculture FactsFacts
India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of themIndia lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them Roughly 65% of the population is ruralRoughly 65% of the population is rural India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was
about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this periodabout 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor forceAgriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDPAgriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4 thth in the world in the world About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultureAbout 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture
IRRIGATIONIRRIGATION Crop
Area under crop (mn.
hec)
Irrigated area under crop (mn. hec.)
Irrigated area as % of
total area under crops
Foodgrains 121 45 37
Rice 43 19 45
Wheat 23 19 84
Non-foodgrains 61 19 31
Groundnut 9 2 20
Cotton 7 3 33
Sugarcane 4 3 86
Total 183 64 35
Total Total Foodgrain Foodgrain Production in Production in India and its India and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall
India’s Water SituationIndia’s Water Situation
Proposed River LinkagesProposed River Linkages
Development of Climate Change Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian Temperature over the Indian regionregion
Potential Impacts:Potential Impacts:
• Water ResourcesWater Resources• AgricultureAgriculture• Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise
and many more sectors…and many more sectors…
Development of Future Development of Future Scenarios of Rainfall & Scenarios of Rainfall & Temperature over IndiaTemperature over India
• IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs)IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs)• SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs)SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs)• SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs)SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs)
Simulations are generally available for about 200 Simulations are generally available for about 200 years (~1870s till 2100)years (~1870s till 2100)
A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies
A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions
B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and introduction of clean technologies
B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability
IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios
5 state-of-the-art climate models rununtil 2100 with various emission scenarios
AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDCAOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC
Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are generated for the Indian region. The models used are:
1. Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model.2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model.3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model.4. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model.6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3)7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.
Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMscoupled AOGCMs
Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the control simulations of coupled AOGCMscontrol simulations of coupled AOGCMs
Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMssimulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs
AOGCM AOGCM Scenarios of Scenarios of all-India all-India summer summer monsoon monsoon rainfall and rainfall and mean annual mean annual surface surface temperaturetemperature
AOGCM AOGCM Projected Projected change in change in summer summer monsoon monsoon rainfall, relative rainfall, relative to 1961-90to 1961-90
2041-602041-60 2061-802061-80
AOGCM AOGCM Projected Projected change in mean change in mean annual surface annual surface air temperature, air temperature, relative to 1961-relative to 1961-9090
2041-602041-60 2061-802061-80
Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a)(IS92a)
High-resolution Climate High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios using Change Scenarios using Regional Climate Model Regional Climate Model (( HadRM2/HadRM2/
HadRM3)HadRM3)
GCMs to GCMs to Regional Regional Adaptive Adaptive Responses : Responses : Modelling PathModelling Path
The Hadley Centre Regional Climate The Hadley Centre Regional Climate ModelsModels
(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS)(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS)
High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCMsea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM
Formulation identical to HadAMFormulation identical to HadAM
Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°
One-way nestingOne-way nesting
Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian regionCentre using HadRM2 for the Indian region
HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development at an change simulations and scenario development at an advanced stage by using PRECIS at IITMadvanced stage by using PRECIS at IITM
Model OrographyModel OrographyGCMGCM RCMRCM
HadRM2 scenariosHadRM2 scenarios
Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)
Each experiment has 20 years dataEach experiment has 20 years data Monthly and Daily data on various Monthly and Daily data on various
parametersparameters Regridded data with uniform horizontal Regridded data with uniform horizontal
grid spacinggrid spacing Spatial means for administrative units Spatial means for administrative units
(states)(states)
Indian Indian Summer Summer Monsoon Monsoon Simulations Simulations by HadRM2by HadRM2
All-India Mean Monthly All-India Mean Monthly RainfallRainfall
0
1
2
3
4
5
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8
9
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
/da
y)
Observed
CTL
GHG (2041-60)
State-wise mean monsoon State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : precipitation change scenarios :
HadRM2HadRM2
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
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10
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JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Rai
nfa
ll C
han
ge
(% o
f C
TL
)
Indian Annual Indian Annual Surface Surface Temperature Temperature Simulations by Simulations by HadRM2HadRM2
State-wise Mean Annual Temperature State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2Change Scenarios : HadRM2
0
1
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3
4
5
6
JK PB HP HR UP BH WB AS MG TP AR NL MN MZ OR MP RJ GJ MH KK AP TN KL
Tem
pera
ture
Ch
an
ge (C
)
Simulation of Monsoon Simulation of Monsoon Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in HadRM2 and Likely Future HadRM2 and Likely Future ChangesChanges
• Changes in Monsoon Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios.GHG Scenarios.
• Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones.Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones.• Intensity of Storms.Intensity of Storms.
Criteria adopted for the identification of cyclonic storms
(this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions)
At least 2 At least 2 daysdays
DurationDuration
> 15 m/s> 15 m/sMax. Wind Max. Wind SpeedSpeed
< -5hPa< -5hPaSLP SLP DepartureDeparture
Local Local MinimumMinimum
Sea level Sea level Pressure Pressure (SLP)(SLP)
A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional modelA typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model
Monsoon Monsoon Depression Depression Tracks as Tracks as simulated in simulated in HadRM2 control HadRM2 control and GHG and GHG ExperimentsExperiments
Pre and Post-Pre and Post-Monsoon Monsoon Cyclonic Storms Cyclonic Storms and likely and likely Changes in GHG Changes in GHG RunsRuns
Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60
NATCOM Workshop, IIM NATCOM Workshop, IIM Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003
Likely Changes in Extreme Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN
Temperatures in India
HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall IntensityIntensity
Change in Annual number of rainy daysChange in Annual number of rainy days Change in rainfall per rainy dayChange in rainfall per rainy day
Impact of Climate Change
on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in
India
Location of Stations
Considered in Extreme
Temperature Analysis
HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature ExtremesExtremes
Change in extreme Maximum TemperatureChange in extreme Maximum Temperature Change in extreme Minimum TemperatureChange in extreme Minimum Temperature
River Basins under StudyRiver Basins under Study
Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG ScenariosScenarios