53
Regional Climate Modeling Fedor Mesinger NCEP Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Univ. Maryland, College Park, MD [email protected] [email protected] Entrenamiento en Modelado Numérico de Escenarios de Cambios Climáticos CPTEC, 13-18 July 2008

Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

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Page 1: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Regional Climate Mod

eling

Fed

or M

esinger

NCEP Environmental M

odeling Center, Cam

p Springs, MD

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Univ. M

aryland, College

Park, M

D

fedor.mesinge

[email protected]

fedor.mesinge

[email protected]

Entrenamiento en M

odelad

o Num

érico de

Escenarios de Cam

bios Climáticos

CPT

EC, 13-18 July 2008

Page 2: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Contents

• W

hat is it; some history

• Issues

Added

value?

Lateral bound

ary cond

itions: the prob

lem, schem

es, “spe

ctral nudging”

More on added

value: can one (should one try to) add value at large

scales?

Resolution vs dom

ain size

Resolution vs dom

ain size

. . . . .

• Applications

. . . . .

Exam

ple: Climate ch

ange

in Med

iterranean (A1B

Scenario)

Page 3: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

What is it ?

Effortto ach

ieve “ad

ded

value” by running a regional

mod

el (“RCM”) driven by lateral bound

ary cond

itions

(LBCs) of a glob

al mod

el

(A variation: in ad

dition, nud

ge large

scales inside the

RCM)

Also: ach

ieve added

value for a reg

ion of interest by

Also: ach

ieve added

value for a reg

ion of interest by

statistical means

Page 4: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Som

e history

• Dickinson et al. (1989): Enh

anced M

M4 (radiation, land

surface),

but ran a sequence of short (few

days) integrations;

• Giorgi and Bates (1989): “perfect” bound

ary cond

itions, month long

integrations;

• Giorgi (1990): GCM-driven ex

periments

. . . multi-year, decad

al, . . .

Resolution: 50-125 km initially, nowad

ays ~50 and

~25 km, and less . .

Coupled

RCMs (regional ocean, ocean/ice, chem

istry, . . .)

More detail and m

ore references: review

paper by Giorgi (2006)

Page 5: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Issues: ad

ded

value

How

/ for what features can one “add value”?

(Higher resolution ! Additional processes also…)

• Fine scale topographic features

(e.g., precipitation over Great Britain, GCM vs RCM)

• Extrem

e events;

• Com

plex

coastlines;

• M

esoscale circulations driven by surface heterogeneity

• M

esoscale circulations driven by surface heterogeneity

• . . . . .

Page 6: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Exam

ple:

Fro

m:

Gio

rgi (2

00

6)

Page 7: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Issues: ad

ded

value

How

/ for what features can one “add value”?

(Higher resolution ! Additional processes also…)

• Fine scale topographic features

(e.g., precipitation over Great Britain, GCM vs RCM)

• Extrem

e events;

• Com

plex

coastlines;

• M

esoscale circulations driven by surface heterogeneity

• M

esoscale circulations driven by surface heterogeneity

• . . . . .

Page 8: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

The prob

lem:

Considered

already in

Charney (1962):

Linearize

d shallow-w

ater

eqs., one space dimension,

characteristics;

“at least tw

o cond

itions have

•Lateral bound

ary

cond

ition schem

e(s)

“at least tw

o cond

itions have

to be specified at inflow

points and

one

cond

ition at

outflow”.

Page 9: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 10: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 11: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Sub

sequently:

Sundström (1973)

How

ever:

Davies (1976): “bound

ary

relaxation schem

e”

Almost all LA

mod

els:

Davies (“relaxation LB

Cs”):

Outside row: specify allvariab

les

Row

1 grid line inside: specify, e.g.,

0.875

*YDM+ 0.125

*YLA

M

Row

2 grid lines inside:

0.750

*YDM+ 0.250

*YLA

M

. . .

Page 12: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 13: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 14: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

(as required

by the mathem

atical nature of the

initial-bound

ary value prob

lem we are solving)

Page 15: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

The schem

e (M

esinge

r 1977)

• At the inflow

bound

ary points, all variab

les prescribed

;

• At the outflowbound

ary points, tangential velocity

extrapolated

from the inside(characteristics!);

• The row of grid points next to the bound

ary row,

“buffer row”; variables four-point average

d(this couples

the gravity waves on tw

o C-sub

grids of the E-grid, will be

explained in the Eta presentation)

the gravity waves on tw

o C-sub

grids of the E-grid, will be

explained in the Eta presentation)

Thus: N

o “bound

ary relaxation” !

Page 16: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 17: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 18: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

“limitation”:

Near inflow

bound

aries, LA mod

el cannot do better -

it can only do worse -that its driver mod

el

Thus: have bound

aries as far as affordab

le !

Page 19: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

The

Eta sch

.one

Page 20: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Work in progress:

Com

pare the Eta LBC sch

eme, against Davies’:

Use GCM (ECMWF) LB

Cs and drive the Eta using one

and the other, look at the difference

(Katarina Veljovi

ć, Un. Belgrad

e)

Page 21: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 22: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis
Page 23: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Verification effort in progress in the style of the precip verification:

area of wind speed

s > so and

so, observed

, forecast, hits (O

,F,H)

Page 24: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Another BC (BC related

?) issue: “spe

ctral nudging”inside the dom

ain !

Motivation:

“An

fu

nd

am

en

tal a

ssu

mp

tio

n in

usin

g R

CM

sta

tes th

at th

e la

rge

-sca

le

atm

osp

he

ric c

ircu

latio

n in

th

e d

rivin

g d

ata

an

d in

th

e R

CM

sh

ou

ld r

em

ain

the

sa

me

at a

ll tim

e”

(Lu

ca

s-P

ich

er

et a

l., 2

00

4)

De

nis

et a

l. (

20

02

): “t

he

in

effe

ctive

ne

ss o

f th

e n

estin

g fo

r co

ntr

olli

ng

th

e

larg

e s

ca

les o

ve

r th

e w

ho

le d

om

ain

”.

Thus,“s

pectr

al nudgin

g”

(Kid

a e

t a

l., 1

99

1, W

ald

ron

et a

l. 1

99

6; vo

n

Sto

rch

et a

l. 2

00

0):

pro

vid

e larg

e s

cale

forc

ing t

o the m

odel

field

s t

hro

ughout

the e

ntire

model dom

ain

A lot

of dis

cussio

n a

t:http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/pielke/links/Downscale/

Page 25: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Ca

str

o, C

. L

., R

. A

. P

ielk

e, S

r., a

nd

G. L

eo

ncin

i: 2

00

5: D

yn

am

ica

l

do

wn

sca

ling

: A

sse

ssm

en

t o

f va

lue

re

tain

ed

an

d a

dd

ed

usin

g th

e R

eg

ion

al

Atm

osp

he

ric M

od

elin

g S

yste

m (

RA

MS

). J

. Ge

op

hys

. Re

s., 11

0, D

05

10

8,

do

i:1

0.1

02

9/2

00

4JD

00

47

21

Castro et al., 4 types of dow

nscaling:

Type 1: NWP (results dep

ends on initial condition);

Type 2: “Perfect” LBCs (=reanalysis)

Type 3: GCM (=predicted) LBCs, but still specified SSTs inside

Type 4: Fully predicted, both LBCs and inside the RCM dom

ain

*

Type 4: Fully predicted, both LBCs and inside the RCM dom

ain

* In the pape

r as pub

lished

, GCM also

includ

ed within Type 2

Page 26: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Ca

str

o, C

. L

., R

. A

. P

ielk

e, S

r., a

nd

G. L

eo

ncin

i: 2

00

5: D

yn

am

ica

l

do

wn

sca

ling

: A

sse

ssm

en

t o

f va

lue

re

tain

ed

an

d a

dd

ed

usin

g th

e R

eg

ion

al

Atm

osp

he

ric M

od

elin

g S

yste

m (

RA

MS

). J

. Ge

op

hys

. Re

s., 11

0, D

05

10

8,

do

i:1

0.1

02

9/2

00

4JD

00

47

21

Castro et al., 4 types of dow

nscaling:

Type 1: NWP (results dep

ends on initial condition);

Type 2: “Perfect” LBCs (=reanalysis)

Type 3: GCM (=predicted) LBCs, but still specified SSTs inside

Type 4: Fully predicted, both LBCs and inside the RCM dom

ain

Type 4: Fully predicted, both LBCs and inside the RCM dom

ain

Castro et al.: Type 2, conclusions:

“Absent interior nudging . . . . failure of the RCM to correctly retain value of

the large scale . . .”

“. . . underestimation of kinetic energy …” “The results here and past stud

ies

suggest the only solution to alle

viate this problem is to constrain the RCM with

the large-scale mod

el (or reanalysis) values.”

Page 27: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

The discussion: 35 ve

ry small fontpages of e-m

ails …

One e-m

ail:

Hi Barry

I do not see how

a regional mod

el can reproduce realistic

long wave patterns, as these are hem

isph

eric features.Roger

Page 28: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

fm:

• W

e are solving our RCM mod

el equations as an initial-bound

ary value

prob

lem. Doing things inside the dom

ain beyond what RCM equations tell

us is in conflict with our science.

Alternative formulation of the same idea: an air parcel inside the RCM

know

s ab

out forces acting on it, heating it undergoes, etc. It has no

allegiance to a given scale !! (It has no idea what goes on on the opposite

side of the glob

e!)

• If the RCM is not doing well the large scales inside the dom

ain, there

• If the RCM is not doing well the large scales inside the dom

ain, there

must be a reason for it;

Page 29: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

fm:

• W

e are solving our RCM mod

el equations as an initial-bound

ary value

prob

lem. Doing things inside the dom

ain beyond what RCM equations tell

us is in conflict with our science.

Alternative formulation of the same idea: an air parcel inside the RCM

know

s ab

out forces acting on it, heating it undergoes, etc. It has no

allegiance to a given scale !! (It has no idea what goes on on the opposite

side of the glob

e!)

• If the RCM is not doing well the large scales inside the dom

ain, there

• If the RCM is not doing well the large scales inside the dom

ain, there

must be a reason for it;

Page 30: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

fm, cont’d:

• Type 2 experiments in which reanalysis is declared truth and

an RCM’s

performance is assessed

according to how

close to the reanalysis it gets

are not appropriate to answer this question. The purpose of an RCM is

to im

proveupon what we have !

Note that in a “though

t ex

periment” a perfect RCM, one that by

definition would beh

ave ex

actly as the real atm

osph

ere, in a Type 2

experiment would depart from

reanalysis more and m

ore as the dom

ain

gets bigger! (LBCs are not perfect !!)

• There areresults, Type 3, in which improvem

ent in large scales can

hardly be questioned

!

Page 31: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

fm, cont’d:

• Type 2 experiments in which reanalysis is declared truth and

an RCM’s

performance is assessed

according to how

close to the reanalysis it gets

are not appropriate to answer this question. The purpose of an RCM is

to im

proveupon what we have !

Note that in a “though

t ex

periment” a perfect RCM, one that by

definition would beh

ave ex

actly as the real atm

osph

ere, in a Type 2

experiment would depart from

reanalysis more and m

ore as the dom

ain

gets bigger! (LBCs are not perfect !!)

• There areresults, Type 3, in which improvem

ent in large scales can

hardly be questioned

!

Page 32: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Fennessy and

Altshuler,

2002:

9 ensem

ble

mem

bers

precip

difference

1993-1988

Obs.:

COLA

GCM:

difference

1993-1988

Obs.:

GCM+

Eta:

Page 33: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Dom

ain size

?

Many pe

ople: th

ings get worse as the dom

ain size

gets bigge

r

One cannot improve on large

scales if the dom

ain size

is

small !

small !

Page 34: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

ME

ĐU

NA

RO

DN

I S

IMP

OZ

IJU

M

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A

EX

AM

PL

E F

RO

M T

HE

“S

INTA

” P

RO

JE

CT: IP

CC

A1

B

CH

AN

GE

SC

EN

AR

IO D

YN

AM

ICA

L D

OW

NS

CA

LIN

G

FO

R T

HE

ME

DIT

ER

RA

NE

AN

RE

GIO

N

Exam

ple:

Borivo

j Rajk

ovi

ćV

ladim

ir Đ

urđ

evi

ćM

inor

changes:

fm

Inst

itute

of M

ete

oro

logy,

Facu

lty o

f P

hys

ics,

Belg

rade U

niv

ers

ity

Dalj,

maj 2

008.

Page 35: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

••The first com

ple

teT

he first com

ple

te

math

em

atical th

eory

of ic

e a

ges

math

em

atical th

eory

of ic

e a

ges

* C

limate

variabili

ty a

s c

onsequence o

f

* C

limate

variabili

ty a

s c

onsequence o

f

astr

onom

ical para

mete

rsastr

onom

ical para

mete

rs

* * T

1 1

9,2

2,2

4 k

yr

T1 1

9,2

2,2

4 k

yr

* * T

2 4

1 k

yr

T2 4

1 k

yr

* * T

3 9

5,1

25,4

00 k

yr

T3 9

5,1

25,4

00 k

yr

Page 36: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

++R

esults fro

m S

INTA

pro

ject

Results fro

m S

INTA

pro

ject

((SI

SIm

ula

tions o

f clim

ate

cha

mula

tions o

f clim

ate

chaNN

ge in t

he m

edi

ge in t

he m

ediTT

err

anean

err

anean

AAre

a)

rea)

Pro

ject part

ners

:P

roje

ct part

ners

:

+N

atio

na

l In

stitu

te o

f G

eo

ph

ysic

s a

nd

Vo

lca

no

log

y

(IN

GV

), B

olo

gn

a,

Ita

ly.

pro

vid

e g

lob

al c

lima

te c

ha

ng

e e

xpe

rim

en

ts in

teg

ratio

ns.

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

+In

stitu

te o

f M

ete

oro

logy,

Belg

rade U

niv

ers

ity,

Belg

rade, S

erb

ia.

+R

epublic

Hid

rom

ete

oro

logic

al S

erv

ice o

f S

erb

ia, B

elg

rade, S

erb

ia.

dyn

am

ica

l do

wn

sca

ling

with

a r

eg

ion

al m

od

el,

usi

ng

initi

al a

nd

bo

un

da

ry

con

diti

on

fro

m a

glo

ba

l mo

de

l.

Page 37: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Page 38: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

The m

ost probable estimates and their ranges of global surface

The m

ost probable estimates and their ranges of global surface

worm

ing for the period 2080

worm

ing for the period 2080--2099 relative to 1980

2099 relative to 1980--1999

1999

SC

EN

AR

IO M

OS

T P

RO

B.

R

AN

GE

SC

EN

AR

IO M

OS

T P

RO

B.

R

AN

GE

B1

1

.8

1

.1

B1

1

.8

1

.1 --

2.9

2.9

A1

T

2

.4

1

.4

A1

T

2

.4

1

.4 --

3.8

3.8

B2

2

.4

1

.4

B2

2

.4

1

.4 --

3.8

3.8

A1

B

A1

B

2.8

1.7

2

.8

1

.7 --

4.4

4.4

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

A1

B

A1

B

2.8

1.7

2

.8

1

.7 --

4.4

4.4

A2

3

.4

2

.0

A2

3

.4

2

.0 --

5.4

5.4

A1

FI

4

.0

2

.4

A1

FI

4

.0

2

.4 --

6.4

6.4

#

0

.6

0

.3#

0.6

0.3

--0.9

0

.9

Page 39: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Ide

a o

f d

yn

am

ica

l Id

ea

of

dyn

am

ica

l downscaling

downscaling

: b

ett

er

rep

rese

nta

tio

n o

f lo

ca

l :

be

tte

r re

pre

se

nta

tio

n o

f lo

ca

l

fea

ture

s:

oro

gra

ph

y, s

oil,

ve

ge

tatio

n .

..fe

atu

res:

oro

gra

ph

y, s

oil,

ve

ge

tatio

n .

..

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Page 40: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

‣CRCM: ClimEta/E

BU-POM

‣T

wo

-wa

y r

eg

ion

al co

up

led

mo

de

l, g

rid

po

int,

pri

mitiv

e e

qu

atio

n,

an

d h

yd

rosta

tic.

‣A

tmo

sp

he

ric c

om

po

ne

nt

is E

ta m

od

el (EBU

=E

ta

Be

lgra

de

Un

ive

rsity)

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Be

lgra

de

Un

ive

rsity)

‣O

ce

an

co

mp

on

en

t is

PO

M

‣M

od

els

exch

an

ge

atm

osp

he

ric s

urf

ace

flu

xe

s

an

d S

ST

eve

ry p

hysic

al tim

e s

tep

of

atm

osp

he

ric m

od

el (~

18

0 s

)

Page 41: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

‣C

limate

change

experim

entsetup

‣P

rese

nt clim

ate

in

teg

ratio

n: 1961-1990

,

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08 ‣

Pre

se

nt clim

ate

in

teg

ratio

n: 1961-1990

,

‣F

utu

re c

lima

te in

teg

ratio

n: 2071-2100

(A1

B

Sce

na

rio

)

Page 42: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

‣Atm

ospheric m

odel:

‣0

.25

ho

rizo

nta

l re

so

lutio

n (

25

-30

km

) / 3

2 la

ye

rs;

‣6

h la

tera

l b

ou

nd

ary

co

nd

itio

n fro

m S

INT

EX

in

teg

ratio

ns;

‣A

nn

ua

l cycle

of ve

ge

tatio

n fra

ctio

n;

‣U

pg

rad

ed

ra

dia

tio

n (

va

ria

ble

GH

Gs)

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

‣U

pg

rad

ed

ra

dia

tio

n (

va

ria

ble

GH

Gs)

‣S

ST

bo

tto

m b

ou

nd

ary

co

nd

itio

n fro

m S

INT

EX

ove

r u

nco

up

led

se

as.

‣Ocean m

odel:

‣0

.2 h

ori

zo

nta

l re

so

lutio

n / 2

1 v

ert

ica

l le

ve

ls (

Me

dite

rra

ne

an

Se

a),

‣In

itia

l co

nd

itio

n: M

OD

B fo

r 1

96

1 / S

INT

EX

fo

r 2

07

1.

Page 43: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Acro

nym

s:

POM:

Princeton Ocean M

odel

SIN

TEX:

Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV, Bologna) Global

GCM: http://www.cmcc.it/w

eb/pub

lic/ANS/m

odels/ingv-sxg

MODB:

Med

iterranean O

ceanic Data Base

Page 44: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

•M

odel dom

ain

s

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Page 45: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

‣Verification of present climate (1961-1990)

integration

‣T

his

verificatio

n s

how

s c

apabili

ty o

f m

odel to

repro

duce p

resent

clim

ate

(Manuscript in press in 'A

nnales Geoph

ysicae’)

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

(Manuscript in press in 'A

nnales Geoph

ysicae’)

‣S

easonal m

eans o

f 2 m

tem

pera

ture

‣W

inte

r se

aso

n: D

ec/J

an

/Fe

b

‣S

um

me

r se

aso

n: J

un

/Ju

l/A

ug

Page 46: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

bia

sm

ae

rmse

EP

/CR

U-0

.21

1.8

82

.15

CRU: Climate Research Unit, Un. East Anglia

Page 47: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

bia

sm

ae

rmse

EP

/CR

U2

.63

2.9

63

.42

Page 48: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

Diffe

rences b

etw

een

Diffe

rences b

etw

een 2071

2071--2100

2100

and

and 1961

1961--1990

1990

::

‣‣S

easonal m

ean tem

pera

ture

, S

easonal m

ean tem

pera

ture

,

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

‣‣pre

cip

itation a

nd 1

0 m

win

d s

peed

pre

cip

itation a

nd 1

0 m

win

d s

peed

diffe

rences.

diffe

rences.

Page 49: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: Jun J

uly

August

SE

AS

ON

: Jun J

uly

August

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Se

rbia

: te

mp

. in

cre

ase

2.0

Se

rbia

: te

mp

. in

cre

ase

2.0

--2.4

2

.4

de

gd

eg

Ita

ly:

tem

p.

incre

ase

1.8

Ita

ly:

tem

p.

incre

ase

1.8

--2.4

2

.4

de

gd

eg

Alp

s: 2.6

Alp

s: 2.6

--3.2

3.2

deg.

deg.

Se

rbia

: te

mp

. in

cre

ase

3.4

Se

rbia

: te

mp

. in

cre

ase

3.4

--3.8

3

.8

de

gd

eg

Ita

ly:

tem

p.

incre

ase

3.2

Ita

ly:

tem

p.

incre

ase

3.2

--4.0

4

.0

de

gd

eg

Page 50: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: Jun J

uly

August

SE

AS

ON

: Jun J

uly

August

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Italy

costa

l are

a: over

70%

It

aly

costa

l are

a: over

70%

less

less

Se

rbia

: p

rec.

de

cre

ase

10

Se

rbia

: p

rec.

de

cre

ase

10

--

30

%3

0%

Ita

ly:

pre

c.

de

cre

ase

10

Ita

ly:

pre

c.

de

cre

ase

10

--40

%4

0%

Se

rbia

: p

rec.

de

cre

ase

10

Se

rbia

: p

rec.

de

cre

ase

10

--

30

%3

0%

Ita

ly:

pre

c.

de

cre

ase

10

Ita

ly:

pre

c.

de

cre

ase

10

--50

%5

0%

Page 51: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: D

ecem

ber

January

Febru

ary

SE

AS

ON

: Jun J

uly

S

EA

SO

N: Jun J

uly

August

August

ST

VA

RA

LA

ŠT

VO

MIL

UT

INA

MIL

AN

KO

VIĆ

A _

__

__

____

____

____

____

Da

lj/m

aj,

20

08

Bipolar changes

Serbia:

Serbia:

--No

rth

No

rth

--we

st

pa

rt d

ecre

ase

we

st

pa

rt d

ecre

ase

+S

ou

th+

So

uth

--ea

st

pa

rt in

cre

ase

ea

st

pa

rt in

cre

ase

Italy:

Italy:

Ma

x in

cre

ase

ove

r A

dri

atic

Ma

x in

cre

ase

ove

r A

dri

atic

Serbia:

Serbia:

--South

South

--west part

w

est part

decre

ase

decre

ase

+N

ort

h+

Nort

h--e

ast part

east part

incre

ase

incre

ase

Italy:

Italy:

Page 52: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

This was done using:

PC

pro

cessor

: In

tel D

ual-C

ore

Xeon

5160 @

3.0

0G

Hz

4 G

B r

am

Inte

l F

ort

ran C

om

pile

r V

ers

ion 9

.1

Model, a

tmosphere

: 7

9 x

105 p

oin

ts, 3

2 layers

dlm

d =

dphd =

0.2

5, d

t b=

90 s

Model, M

editerr

anean:

193 x

153 p

oin

ts,

21 levels

dx =

dy =

~20 k

m

exchange o

f fluxes a

nd S

ST

every

180 s

(every

atm

ospheric p

hysic

s t

ime s

tep)

30 y

ears

done in ≤

2 m

onth

s

Page 53: Regional Climate Modeling NCEP Environmental Modeling …pnud.cptec.inpe.br/itens/entrenamiento/apresentacoes/Apres03... · the same at all time”(Lucas-Picher et al., 2004) Denis

References (more in Giorgi 2006)

Lu

ca

s-P

ich

er,

P.,

D.

Ca

ya

, a

nd

S.

Bin

er,

20

04

: R

CM

’s in

tern

al

va

ria

bili

ty a

s a

fu

nctio

n o

f d

om

ain

siz

e.

Re

s. A

ctiv

itie

s A

tmo

s.

Oce

an

ic M

od

elli

ng

, W

MO

, G

en

eva

, C

AS

/JS

C W

GN

E R

ep

.

34

, 7

.27

-7.2

8.

Me

sin

ge

r, F

., 1

97

7: F

orw

ard

-ba

ckw

ard

sch

em

e, a

nd

its

use

in a

lim

ite

d a

rea

mo

de

l. C

on

trib

. Atm

os.

Ph

ys.,50

, 2

00

-21

0.

Su

nd

str

öm

, A

., 1

97

3: T

he

ore

tica

l an

d p

ractica

l p

rob

lem

s in

form

ula

ting b

ou

nd

ary

co

nd

itio

ns fo

r a

lim

ite

d a

rea

mo

de

l.

Re

p. D

M-9

, In

st.

Me

teo

rolo

gy,

Un

iv.

Sto

ckh

olm

.

Wald

ron, K

. M

., J

. P

ae

gle

, a

nd

J.

D.

Ho

rel, 1

99

6: S

en

sitiv

ity

of a

sp

ectr

ally

filt

ere

d a

nd

nu

dge

d li

mite

d-a

rea

mo

de

l to

ou

ter

Ch

arn

ey,

J.

19

62

: In

tegra

tio

n o

f th

e p

rim

itiv

e a

nd

ba

lan

ce

equ

atio

ns. P

roc.

In

tern

. Sym

p.

Nu

me

rica

l We

ath

er

Pre

dic

tion

,

To

kyo

, Ja

pa

n M

ete

or.

Age

ncy,

13

1-1

52.

Da

vie

s, H

. C

., 1

97

6: A

la

tera

l b

ou

nd

ary

fo

rmu

latio

n fo

r m

ulti-

leve

l p

red

ictio

n m

od

els

. Q

ua

rt. J

. R

oy.

Me

teo

r. S

oc.

, 102

,

40

5-4

18

.

Dic

kin

so

n, R

. E

., R

. M

. E

rric

o,

F.

Gio

rgi, a

nd

G. T.

Ba

tes,

19

89

: A

re

gio

na

l clim

ate

mo

de

l fo

r th

e w

este

rn U

nite

d S

tate

s.

Clim

atic

Ch

an

ge

, 15

, 3

83

-42

2.

Fe

nn

essy,

M.

J.,

an

d E

. L

. A

ltsh

ule

r, 2

00

2: S

ea

so

na

l Clim

ate

o

f a

sp

ectr

ally

filt

ere

d a

nd

nu

dge

d li

mite

d-a

rea

mo

de

l to

ou

ter

mo

de

l op

tio

ns. M

on

. We

a. R

ev.

, 124

, 5

29

-54

7.

Fe

nn

essy,

M.

J.,

an

d E

. L

. A

ltsh

ule

r, 2

00

2: S

ea

so

na

l Clim

ate

Pre

dic

tab

ility

in

an

AG

CM

an

d a

Ne

ste

d R

egio

na

l M

od

el.

Am

erica

n G

eo

ph

ysic

al U

nio

n, F

all

Me

etin

g 2

00

2, a

bstr

act

#A

61

E-0

6 (

Ava

ilab

le o

nlin

e a

t

htt

p:/

/ad

sa

bs.h

arv

ard

.edu/a

bs/2

00

2A

GU

FM

.A6

1E

..0

6F

)

Gio

rgi, F

., 2

00

6: R

egio

na

l clim

ate

mo

de

ling: S

tatu

s a

nd

pe

rsp

ective

s. J.

Ph

ys. I

V F

ran

ce, 139

, 1

01

–118

, D

OI:

10

.10

51/jp

4:2

00

61390

08 [A

va

ilab

le o

nlin

e a

t

htt

p:/

/jp

4.jo

urn

ald

ephysiq

ue

.org

/]

Gio

rgi, F

., a

nd

G. T.

Ba

tes, 1

98

9: T

he

clim

ato

logic

al s

kill

of

a

regio

na

l clim

ate

mo

de

l o

ve

r co

mp

lex te

rra

in. M

on

. We

a. R

ev.

, 117, 2

32

5–

2347.