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Regional
Morning Pack
REGIONAL MORNING PACK 28 Feb 2020
Summary
The Big Picture
DBS Economics & Strategy Varying impact of COVID-19 on China credit
Stocks
Singapore
AEM Holdings Ltd: Upward trajectory still in play
Delfi Ltd: Getting sweeter
Frencken Group Limited: Outlook remains positive
Mapletree Logistics Trust: Safe harbour in rough seas
Venture Corporation: Back on a growth path
China / Hong Kong
China Everbright Greentech Ltd: Improving cashflow and earnings quality
China Vanke: Hidden value of new businesses
HK Exchanges & Clearing: Trading momentum continues despite global epidemic concerns
Sino Land: Enviable financials, compelling valuations
Wheelock & Co: Unexpected restructuring move
Malaysia
Bumi Armada: Grossly undervalued
Cahya Mata Sarawak: Caught by surprise
Genting Malaysia: Casino duty and major key units drag earnings
Hong Leong Bank: Strong at the halfway point
Hong Leong Financial Group: A better quarter across all businesses
Kimlun Corp: Expect stronger manufacturing contributions
Media Prima Bhd: Rays of hope
OCK Group: Solar and towers driving growth
Public Bank: Oversold and undervalued
Serba Dinamik Holdings: Riding on robust order book
TSH Resources: Lifted by robust CPO prices
Unisem: A clean slate for FY20
Refer to important disclosures at the end of each report
Regional
Morning Pack
Thailand
Bumrungrad Hospital: Hold for long term outlook
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services: Sustainable growth outlook
Berli Jucker Public Co. Ltd: 4Q19 earnings supported by tax benefits
Frasers Property (Thailand) Pcl: Expect huge asset divestment gains in 2QFY20
Minor International: 4Q19 results lifted by strong real estate performance
Osotsapa Pcl: Steady and strong growth in 2020
Quality Houses: Hold on for yields
Wha Premium Growth Freehold: Offering decent yield and IRR
Indonesia
Astra Agro Lestari: Will ageing trees stifle growth?
The Big Picture
DBS Economics & Strategy
Varying impact of COVID-19 on China credit
• The COVID-19 fallout on onshore credit markets has eased in February, helped by policy palliatives.
• With spreads stabilizing on “anti-epidemic” bonds on top of a sharp decline in CGB yields, corporate bond
funding costs have eased materially.
• However, credit differentiation has accentuated for industries that have been hit disproportionately. Risks
for firms in vulnerable industries cannot be discounted, even with broader easing of credit conditions.
Read more…
Stocks to watch
Singapore
AEM Holdings Ltd (AEM SP): BUY
Market Cap: US$419m | Average Daily Value: US$9.1m
Last Traded Price: S$2.17; Price Target: S$2.52 (Upside 16.1%) (Prev S$2.38)
Lee Keng LING / Singapore Research Team
Upward trajectory still in play
• FY19 earnings above expectations on higher sales (+23% y-o-y) and gross profit margin of 40.5%
• Sales guidance revised to S$360-380m (+9%)
• Final dividend of 3.1Scts/share
• Maintain BUY with a slightly higher TP of S$2.52
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Delfi Ltd (DELFI SP): BUY
Market Cap: US$422m | Average Daily Value: US$0.51m
Last Traded Price: S$0.97; Price Target: S$1.55 (Upside 60.6%) (Prev S$1.51)
Alfie YEO / Singapore Research Team
Getting sweeter
• FY19 results in line, premiumisation strategy delivering sales growth and stronger margins
• Final DPS of 1.45 Scts declared
• Raised FY20/ 21F earnings by 3% in anticipation of better margins
• Maintain BUY with a slightly higher TP of S$1.55
Read more…
Frencken Group Limited (FRKN SP): BUY
Market Cap: US$263m | Average Daily Value: US$1.00m
Last Traded Price: S$0.865; Price Target: S$1.06 (Upside 22.2%)
Lee Keng LING
Outlook remains positive
• FY19 results in line; net profit surged 41% on margin improvement
• Expect Semiconductor and Medical segments to grow y-o-y in 1Q20
• Industrial Automation division to decline in 1Q20 but outlook still positive for key customer
• No change in forecasts; maintain BUY and S$1.06 TP
Read more…
Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT SP): HOLD (downgrade from BUY)
Market Cap: US$5,280m | Average Daily Value: US$14.99m
Last Traded Price: S$1.940; Price Target: S$1.90 (Downside 2.1%)
Derek TAN / Singapore Research Team
Safe harbour in rough seas
• Downgrade to HOLD on valuations, TP S$1.90.
• COVID-19 outbreak may have indirect impact on its operations in China, Hong Kong and Singapore
• Acquisitions will still feature to supplement growth
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Venture Corporation (VMS SP): BUY (Upgrade from HOLD)
Market Cap: US$3,413m | Average Daily Value: US$12.1m
Last Traded Price: S$16.51; Price Target: S$18.50 (Upside 12.1%) (Prev S$17.20)
Lee Keng LING
Back on a growth path
• FY19 results slightly above expectations; net margins back to 10% level
• Maintains DPS of 70 Scts; strong cash position
• Expect stronger 2H 2020 led by new products and new partners
• Raised FY20F/FY21F earnings by 6%/7%; upgrade to BUY with higher TP of S$18.50
Read more…
China / Hong Kong
China Everbright Greentech Ltd (1257 HK) : BUY
Market Cap: US$2,066m | Average Daily Value: US$1166.00m
Last Traded Price: HK$4.40; Price Target 12-mth:HK$7.20 (63.6% upside) (Prev HK$8.80)
Patricia YEUNG
Improving cashflow and earnings quality
• FY19 results largely in line with upside surprise from gross margins in biomass projects
• Increasing revenue from steam generation to improve cashflow and project IRR
• Enhanced earnings quality with significant reduction in construction revenue
• Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$7.20
Read more…
China Vanke (H) (2202 HK) : BUY
China Vanke (A) (000002 CH) : BUY
Total Market Cap: US$47,829m | Average Daily Value (H): US$23.94m
(H) Last Traded Price: HK$30.30; Price Target 12-mth (H): HK$36.16 (19.3% upside) (Prev HK$35.40)
(A) Last Traded Price (A): RMB30.11; Price Target 12-mth (A): RMB32.87 (9.2% upside) (Prev RMB30.80)
Ken HE/Danielle WANG/Jason LAM
Hidden value of new businesses
• BUY Vanke-A/H for high revenue visibility, understated balance sheet and attractive yield
• Excluding GLP, property management and IPs, the rest of Vanke is only trading at c.4x PE
• Cut FY19/20F EPS by 4%/6% on lower sales and completion assumptions
• TP lifted to Rmb32.87/HK$36.16 after rolling over to FY20F EPS
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
HK Exchanges & Clearing (388 HK) : BUY
Market Cap: US$42,044m | Average Daily Value: US$138.14m
Last Traded Price: HK$259.80; Price Target 12-mth:HK$316 (21.6% upside)
Dennis LAM/Byron LAM
Trading momentum continues despite global epidemic concerns
• 4Q19 earnings in line with expectations
• COVID-19 pressures HKEx’s share price but impact on HKSE turnover is minimal
• A healthy IPO pipeline and more secondary listings to be key growth themes
• Maintain BUY with TP at HK$316
Read more…
Sino Land (83 HK) : BUY
Market Cap: US$9.465m | Average Daily Value: US$8.70m
Last Traded Price: HK$10.60; Price Target 12-mth: HK$13.50 (27.4% upside) (Prev HK$13.86)
Jeff YAU/Ian CHUI/Jason LAM
Enviable financials, compelling valuations
• Underlying interim earnings grew 15% to HK$2.72bn, 12% above our estimate, due to lower-than-expected administrative costs and higher-than-expected finance income
• Capital Tower in Kowloon Bay provided the mainstay of development earnings
• Net cash improved to HK$37.3bn representing >50% of its market capitalisation
• BUY with HK$13.50 TP
Read more…
Wheelock & Co (20 HK) : BUY
Market Cap: US$12,413m | Average Daily Value: US$5.30m
Last Traded Price: HK$47.25; Price Target 12-mth: HK$57.15 (21.0% upside)
Jeff YAU/Ian CHUI/Jason LAM
Unexpected restructuring move
• Woo Family proposes to privatise Wheelock & Co
• For each Wheelock & Co share held, minority shareholders will receive HK$12 in cash and distribution of one share each of Wharf REIC and Wharf Holdings
• The issue of business overlap between Wharf and Wheelock has yet to be addressed, expect more restructuring moves to come
• Positive to Wheelock’s share price; TP under review
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Malaysia
Bumi Armada (BAB MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$466m | Average Daily Value: US$5.3m
Last Traded Price: RM0.34; Price Target: RM0.75 (Upside 123.9%)
Jin Wu LOW
Grossly undervalued
• FY19 results in line with expectations
• Achieved utilisation of 100% for owned units
• Expect profit to improve through better performance across both FPO and OMS segments
• Maintain BUY and TP of RM0.75, based on 13.5x FY20 EPS
Read more…
Cahya Mata Sarawak (CMS MK): HOLD
Market Cap: US$520m | Average Daily Value: US$0.62m
Last Traded Price: RM2.05; Price Target: RM2.25 (Upside 9.7%)
Abdul Azim Muhthar
Caught by surprise
• Weak 4Q19 results on unexpectedly lower cement and road maintenance contributions
• Associate OM Sarawak likely recorded losses in the quarter
• COVID-19 could weigh on OM Sarawak’s contribution in coming quarters
• Maintain HOLD with TP of RM2.25
Read more…
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): FULLY VALUED
Market Cap: US$3,934m | Average Daily Value: US$7.75m
Last Traded Price: RM2.93; Price Target: RM2.65 (Downside 9.7%) (Prev RM2.90)
King Yoong CHEAH
Casino duty and major key units drag earnings
• FY19 earnings missed expectations on lower than expected contributions from its key operations
• Higher than expected dividend payout; raise our FY20/21 dividend payout ratio forecast from 70% to 80%
• Cut forward earnings forecast by 2-10%
• Maintain FULLY VALUED with a lower TP of RM2.65
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Hong Leong Bank (HLBK MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$7,771m | Average Daily Value: US$3.9m
Last Traded Price: RM15.18; Price Target: RM19.20 (Upside 26.5%) (Prev RM20.20)
CHIN Jin Han
Strong at the halfway point
• In-line 1HFY20 showing; strong performance from robust revenue growth and expense control
• Loans growth beat the industry again while NIM improved
• ROE guidance moderated; trim FY20-22F earnings by 1-2% for additional rate cut in March but mitigated by stronger BOCD contribution
• Maintain BUY with RM19.20 TP
Read more…
Hong Leong Financial Group (HLFG MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$4,252m | Average Daily Value: US$0.76m
Last Traded Price: RM15.72; Price Target: RM20.25 (Upside 28.8%) (Prev RM21.25)
CHIN Jin Han
A better quarter across all businesses
• 1HFY20 earnings within expectations; good contributions across all business lines
• HLBK earnings driven by strong revenue growth on margin recovery, loans growth and investment & trading income growth
• Better revenue at HLA on continued increase in premiums while HLCAP was buoyed by its asset management arm
• Trimmed FY20-22F earnings by 3% each mainly from imputing rate cuts in FY20; TP lowered to RM20.25 but maintain BUY
Read more…
Kimlun Corp (KICB MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$88m | Average Daily Value: US$0.04m
Last Traded Price: RM1.09; Price Target: RM1.80 (Upside 65.1%) (Prev RM2.16)
Tjen San CHONG
Expect stronger manufacturing contributions
• 4Q19 performance below expectations
• GP margins picked up q-o-q due to better construction margins
• Expect more manufacturing jobs in 2020
• BUY with lower TP of RM1.80
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Media Prima Bhd (MPR MK): HOLD (upgrade from FULLY VALUED)
Market Cap: US$47m | Average Daily Value: US$0.09m
Last Traded Price: RM0.18; Price Target: RM0.20 (Upside 13.5%) (Prev RM0.21)
Abdul Azim Muhthar
Rays of hope
• Returned to black in 4Q19; improvement across all segments
• To narrow losses in FY20 on lower operating costs
• Trading at 0.3x book; this is below -2 SD of its 5-year P/BV mean
• Upgrade to HOLD with TP of 20 sen
Read more…
OCK Group Bhd (OCK MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$131m | Average Daily Value: US$0.57m
Last Traded Price: RM0.58; Price Target: RM0.75 (Upside 29.3%)
Woo Kim TOH
Solar and towers driving growth
• 4Q19 net profit of RM7.2m within expectations
• Key beneficiary of NFCP rollout in Malaysia
• Growing recurring income with acquisition of solar farms and expansion of tower business
• Maintain BUY with unchanged RM0.75 TP based on 20x FY20 PE
Read more…
Public Bank (PBK MK): BUY (upgrade from HOLD)
Market Cap: US$15,769m | Average Daily Value: US$16.2m
Last Traded Price: RM17.20; Price Target: RM19.70 (Upside 14.5%) (Prev RM21.15)
CHIN Jin Han
Oversold and undervalued
• FY19 earnings in line, generally stable earnings with targets met
• Well-equipped to weather challenges despite revenue headwinds ahead
• Market undervaluing its status as a safe haven in a challenging market environment
• Upgrade to BUY with RM19.70 TP
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Serba Dinamik Holdings (SDH MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$1,704m | Average Daily Value: US$3.3m
Last Traded Price: RM2.34; Price Target: RM2.70 (Upside 15.4%)
Jin Wu LOW
Riding on robust order book
• FY19 results in line with expectations
• Achieved order book target of RM10bn for FY19
• Confident of achieving order book target of RM15bn
• Maintain BUY and TP of RM2.70
Read more…
TSH Resources (TSH MK): BUY
Market Cap: US$403m | Average Daily Value: US$0.28m
Last Traded Price: RM1.23; Price Target: RM1.60 (Upside 30.1%) (Prev RM1.30)
Jin Wu LOW
Lifted by robust CPO prices
• FY19 earnings in line with forecast
• Expect yields to remain steady on higher CPO prices
• Higher CPO prices to boost earnings going forward
• Maintain BUY with DCF-derived TP of RM1.60
Read more…
Unisem (UNI MK): HOLD
Market Cap: US$379m | Average Daily Value: US$0.08m
Last Traded Price: RM2.21; Price Target: RM2.00 (Downside 9.5%)
Woo Kim TOH
A clean slate for FY20
• 4Q19 core earnings of RM27m exceeded our and consensus estimates
• Exceptional items were mainly related to the ongoing closure of its Batam plant
• Keeping our tepid FY20-21 forecasts, amid global economic uncertainty and COVID-19 outbreak
• Share price has corrected; upgrade to HOLD with unchanged RM2.00 TP (based on 1.1x P/BV)
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Thailand
Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): HOLD
Market Cap: US$2,563m | Average Daily Value: US$7.14m
Last Traded Price: Bt112.00; Price Target: Bt125.00 (Upside 11.6%) (Prev Bt136.00)
Thailand Research Team / Nantika WIANGPHOEM
Hold for long term outlook
• 4Q20 earnings of Bt886m on flat revenue growth and margin contraction
• COVID-19 outbreak expected to impact 1Q20-2Q20
• Declared 2H19 DPS of Bt2.05, ex-dividend (XD) on 13 Mar 20.
• Maintain HOLD rating with lower TP of Bt126 based on DCF
Read more…
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$11,638m | Average Daily Value: US$24.32m
Last Traded Price: Bt23.20; Price Target: Bt26.00 (Upside 12.1%) (Prev Bt28.00)
Thailand Research Team / Nantika WIANGPHOEM
Sustainable growth outlook
• Core profit came in at Bt2,372m (flat y-o-y,-18% q-o-q)
• Expect outlook to worsen in FY20F on the back of Covid-19 outbreak before turning around in FY21F
• Declared 2H19 DPS of Bt30 with an ex-dividend (XD) of 11 Mar 2020
• Maintain BUY call with lower DCF-based TP of Bt26.00
Read more…
Berli Jucker Public Co. Ltd (BJC TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$4,680m | Average Daily Value: US$15.18m
Last Traded Price: Bt37.00; Price Target: Bt52.00 (Upside 40.5%)
Nantika WIANGPHOEM
4Q19 earnings supported by tax benefits
• 4Q19 core earnings came in at Bt2.5bn (+7% y-o-y and +42% q-o-q) on the back of lower tax expenses
• Modern supply chain business (Big C) continued to show deep negative SSSG of -6.3% on slowdown in domestic consumption
• Consumer supply chain performance remained strong while healthcare & technology performance was poor
• Earnings forecasts and TP are under review
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Frasers Property (Thailand) Pcl (FPT TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$802m | Average Daily Value: US$0.09m
Last Traded Price: Bt12.60; Price Target: Bt18.10 (Upside 43.7%)
Chanpen SIRITHANARATTANAKUL
Expect huge asset divestment gains in 2QFY20
• Selling 61.2m units of FTREIT shares for Bt943m, estimated gain of Bt500m to be recognised in 2QFY20
• This is on top of estimated Bt100m+ gain from land sale to Midea Group in 2QFY20
• These are parts of its plan to bring down its gearing, with more to come
• Maintain BUY with DCF-based TP of Bt18.1
Read more…
Minor International (MINT TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$3,952m | Average Daily Value: US$12.29m
Last Traded Price: Bt27.25; Price Target: Bt38.00 (Upside 39.4%)
Nantika WIANGPHOEM
4Q19 results lifted by strong real estate performance
• Impressive 4Q19 results driven by real estate sales while hotel and food segments showed signs of improvement
• 1Q10 will be hit by Covid-19, with both y-o-y and q-o-q earnings contraction likely to materialise
• Long-term outlook remains intact from hotel and food outlet expansion, along with efficiency improvement
• Maintain BUY with unchanged DCF-based TP of Bt38
Read more…
Osotsapa Pcl (OSP TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$4,030m | Average Daily Value: US$15.29m
Last Traded Price: Bt42.50; Price Target: Bt48.00 (Upside 12.9%)
Nantika WIANGPHOEM
Steady and strong growth in 2020
• 4Q19 core earnings came in at Bt821m (+11.8% y-o-y, +0.4% q-o-q), in line with our and consensus’ estimates
• Covid-19’s negative direct impact is expected to be minimal and the coronavirus outbreak may benefit its health and hygiene-related products
• Better outlook for 2020 driven by both topline growth and margin expansion
• Maintain BUY with unchanged DCF-based TP of Bt48
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Quality Houses (QH TB): HOLD
Market Cap: US$794m | Average Daily Value: US$2.4m
Last Traded Price: Bt2.36; Price Target: Bt2.90 (Upside 22.9%) (Prev Bt3.10)
Thailand Research Team / Thaninee Satirareungchai
Hold on for yields
• QH posted weak 4Q19 earnings of Bt675m (-14% y-o-y, -6% q-o-q) on lower-than-expected transfers
• Conservative plan for 2020: (i) the launch of only low-rise projects worth Bt6.5bn (-12% y-o-y), (ii) presales target of Bt9.5bn (+27% y-o-y), and (iii) transfer target of Bt9.5bn (+2% y-o-y)
• Expect residential business to remain weak in 1Q20
• Maintain HOLD with TP of Bt3.10, backed by decent yield
Read more…
WHA Premium Growth Freehold & Leasehold REIT (WHART TB): BUY
Market Cap: US$1,143m | Average Daily Value: US$0.94m
Last Traded Price: Bt16.10; Price Target: Bt18.10 (Upside 12.4%) (Prev Bt18.70)
Chanpen SIRITHANARATTANAKUL
Offering decent yield and IRR
• 4Q19 results slightly below expectation due to high opex
• Occupancy rate rose further to 93% at end-2019
• Offering decent yield of 4.8% and IRR of 6.1%
• Maintain BUY with DCF-based TP of Bt18.10
Read more…
Indonesia
Astra Agro Lestari (AALI IJ): HOLD
Market Cap: US$1,449m | Average Daily Value: US$0.85m
Last Traded Price: Rp10,525; Price Target: Rp11,200 (Upside 6.4%) (Prev Rp12,500)
William SIMADIPUTRA
Will ageing trees stifle growth?
• 4Q19 earnings below forecast
• Sustained earnings in upcoming quarters needed before revisiting our rating and TP
• 40% of trees above 20 years old; production may stall if replanting is insufficient
• Maintain HOLD with lower TP of Rp11,200
Read more…
Regional
Morning Pack
Market Data
Source: DBS Bank, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Key Indices
Closed % chg
as of Vs YTD QTD MTD
Indices 27 Feb Previous (%) (%) (%)
Asia
Shanghai A 2,991 0.1 (1.9) (1.9) 0.5
STI 3,112 (0.2) (3.4) (3.4) (1.3)
BSE Sensex 39,746 (0.4) (3.7) (3.7) (2.4)
Hang Seng 26,779 0.3 (5.0) (5.0) 1.8
HSCEI Index 10,593 0.9 (5.1) (5.1) 3.4
MXFEJ index 615 (0.2) (5.2) (5.2) (0.4)
KLCI 1,506 0.7 (5.2) (5.2) (1.7)
Taiex 11,292 (1.2) (5.9) (5.9) (1.8)
KOSPI 2,055 (1.1) (6.5) (6.5) (3.0)
Nikkei 225 21,948 (2.1) (7.2) (7.2) (5.4)
HSCCI Index 4,148 0.5 (8.6) (8.6) 1.2
PCOMP 6,968 0.8 (10.8) (10.8) (3.2)
SET 1,395 2.1 (11.7) (11.7) (7.9)
JCI Index 5,536 (2.7) (12.1) (12.1) (6.8)
U.S./Others
Dow Jones 25,767 (4.4) (9.7) (9.7) (8.8)
S&P 2,979 (4.4) (7.8) (7.8) (7.7)
NASDAQ 8,566 (4.6) (4.5) (4.5) (6.4)
FTSE 100 6,796 (3.5) (9.9) (9.9) (6.7)
DAX Index 12,367 (3.2) (6.7) (6.7) (4.7)
Commodity Indicators
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DBS Bank
-10.6% 3.0%
-2.9%
-5.2%
-8.2%
8.5%
-15.6%
-7.2%7.2%
1.3%
-1.4%
-8.6%
-17.1%-23.5%
-5.6%
-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Nickel Spot
Coal Spot
Tin
Steel (weekly)
Copper
Gold Spot
Soybean Oil Spot
Soybean Spot
Sugar #11
Rice
Wheat Spot
TSL Crude Palm Oil
Palm Oil Spot (FOB Msia)
Crude Oil Brent Spot
Corn Spot
YTD % chng
184%
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
US IG CDS
YTD % chng
Earnings Gth (%) PE (x)
20F 21F 20F 21F
Singapore 2.5 9.0 13.8 12.6
HK HSI 6.7 8.5 10.3 9.5
HK HSCCI (Red) 9.1 10.7 8.4 7.6
HK HSCEI (H) 5.1 9.2 8.1 7.4
CSI300 22.3 12.1 11.9 10.6
SH Comp 45.4 (10.3) 9.8 10.9
SZ Comp 113.7 15.5 18.6 16.1
Thailand 7.7 4.1 14.9 14.2
Indonesia 8.6 4.9 15.6 14.8
Commodities Latest Closing Previous
Closing
Nickel Spot USD/mt 12,478 12,372
Coal Spot USD/mt 67 70
Tin USD/mt 16,680 16,725
Steel (weekly) RMB/mt 460 470
Copper USD/lb 5,670 5,685
Gold Spot USD/t. oz 1,646 1,645
Soybean Oil Spot USD/pound 29 29
Soybean Spot USD/bushel 9 9
Sugar #11 USD/lb 14 15
Rice USD/cwt 14 14
Wheat Spot USD/bushel 6 6
TSL Crude Palm Oil USD/mt 745 745
Palm Oil Spot (FOB
Msia)
RM/mt 2,510 2,545
Crude Oil Brent Spot USD/barrel 51 53
Corn Spot USD/bushel 4 4
Credit Spreads
US IG CDS 39 28
Regional
Morning Pack
Regional Equity Picks
Blue Chips (Provides steady growth over a longer time period)
Company Exch Sector
Price
27 Feb 20
(LCY)
12-mth
Target
Price
(LCY)
Total
Return
(%)
% Chg
-1w
% Chg
since
Entry
Date
Date of
Entry
to List
Mcap
US$m
3mths Avg
Daily T/O
US$m
CapitaLand CAPL SP SP Real Estate 3.64 4.50 27 (2.4) -2.9 2-Jan-20 13,157 21.9
Thai Beverage Public
Company THBEV SP SP Consumer Staples 0.81 1.04 31 (4.7) 2.5 17-Feb-20 14,492 11.0
UOB UOB SP SP Financial 25.27 27.20 13 (2.3) -3.1 29-Oct-19 30,219 44.5
Yangzijiang YZJSGD SP SP Industrials 0.98 1.68 77 (6.3) -12.9 2-Jan-20 2,739 23.9
Bank of China
(Hong Kong) 2388 HK HK Financial 27.10 33.00 27 (2.0) -3.6 7-Nov-19 36,758 33.3
China Merchants
Bank 3968 HK HK Financial 37.85 45.30 23 (2.3) -3.3 7-Feb-20 122,463 71.9
HK Ex & Clearing 388 HK HK Financial 260.80 316.00 24 (3.9) 3.8 7-Nov-19 42,198 138.3
Ping An Insurance 2318 HK HK Financial 88.35 115.00 33 (3.5) -6.0 7-Nov-19 207,197 329.5
Sun Hung Kai
Properties 16 HK HK Real Estate 113.10 134.40 23 (0.5) -6.1 6-Nov-19 42,046 49.6
Tencent Holdings
Ltd 700 HK HK Communication Services 399.20 466.00 17 (2.6) 4.4 3-Jan-20 489,241 884.2
Malaysia Airports MAHB MK MK Industrials 6.85 10.25 52 (0.4) -20.0 18-Jul-19 2,699 5.4
RHB Bank RHBBANK MK MK Financial 5.61 6.40 18 (1.1) -1.6 1-Apr-19 5,342 5.4
Central Pattana CPN TB TB Real Estate 55.250 69.00 27 (7.5) -14.0 17-Jan-20 7,834 13.7
CP ALL CPALL TB TB Consumer Staples 67.500 82.50 24 (4.3) -9.1 17-Jan-20 19,156 59.1
AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ IJ Industrials 2,750.0 5,000 84 (10.1) -11.9 13-Feb-20 787 2.8
Bumi Serpong
Damai BSDE IJ IJ Real Estate 1,030.0 1,800 75 (9.6) -7.6 13-Feb-20 1,413 0.9
United Tractors UNTR IJ IJ Energy 17,575 26,900 59 (4.6) -22.7 7-Aug-19 4,674 5.3
Deletion: Genting Singapore
Dividend (Provides steady income stream)
Company Exch Sector
Price
27 Feb 20
(LCY)
12-mth
Target
Price
(LCY)
Total Return
(%)
% Chg
-1w
% Chg
since
Entry
Date
Date of
Entry
to List
Mcap
US$m
3mths Avg
Daily T/O
US$m
CDL Hopsitality
Trusts CDREIT SP SP REITs 1.450 1.75 27 (6.5) -8.8 30-Aug-19 1,261 CDL
Hopsit
ality
Trusts
Koufu Group Ltd KOUFU SP SP Consumer Discretionary 0.720 0.84 20 (3.4) -0.7 14-Oct-19 286 Koufu
Group
Ltd SIA Engineering SIE SP SP Industrials 2.470 3.30 38 (5.0) -6.8 4-Nov-19 1,983 SIA
Engine
ering StarHub STH SP SP Communication Services 1.550 1.72 17 3.3 2.0 24-Feb-20 1,922 StarHu
b Link REIT 823 HK HK REITs 74.050 96.60 34 (4.9) -18.3 6-Aug-19 19,628 Link
REIT Berjaya Sports Toto BST MK MK Consumer Discretionary 2.560 3.10 27 (2.7) 18.0 17-Dec-18 819 Berjaya
Sports
Toto Bermaz Auto BAUTO MK MK Consumer Discretionary 1.750 2.55 58 (6.4) -33.5 18-Jul-19 483 Berma
z Auto Matrix Concepts
Holdings MCH MK MK Real Estate 1.910 2.40 32 (2.1) -2.6 7-Mar-19 373
Matrix
Conce
pts
Holdin
gs
Sunway REIT SREIT MK MK REITs 1.900 2.10 16 0.5 9.8 9-Jun-17 1,329 Sunwa
y REIT AIM Industrial
Growth Freehold
and Leasehold AIMIRT TB TB REITs 12.600 15.60 30 (8.7) 4.1 22-Apr-19 62
AIM
Industr
ial
Growt
h
Freehol
d and
Leaseh
old
Digital Telecom
Infrastructure Fund DIF TB TB Communication Services 16.200 18.50 20 (4.1) -8.0 19-Aug-19 5,441
Digital
Teleco
m
Infrastr
ucture
Fund
Bank Negara
Indonesia BBNI IJ IJ Financial 7,075 8,500 24 (10.7) 0.0 25-Nov-20 9,407 Bank
Negara
Indone
sia
Regional
Morning Pack
Growth (Provides capital growth over 12 months)
Company Exch Sector
Price
27 Feb 20
(LCY)
12-mth
Target
Price
(LCY)
Total
Return
(%)
% Chg
-1w
% Chg
since
Entry
Date
Date of
Entry
to List
Mcap
US$m
3mths Avg
Daily T/O
US$m
CapitaLand CAPL SP SP Real Estate 3.640 4.50 27 (2.4) -2.9 2-Jan-20 13,157 21.9
Air China 753 HK HK Industrials 6.390 10.00 59 (8.5) -9.4 6-Dec-19 11,907 18.5
Alibaba Group 9988 HK HK Consumer Discretionary 205.200 278.00 35 (4.8) -4.8 21-Feb-20 564,987 467.3
China Railway Construction
Corp 1186 HK HK Industrials 8.930 12.50 43 2.6 0.3 3-Jan-20 15,557 11.0
China Tower 788 HK HK Communication Services 1.950 3.10 60 5.4 23.4 6-Dec-19 44,031 89.8
China Yuhua Education * 6169 HK HK Consumer Discretionary 6.130 6.20 3 (1.4) 13.9 6-Dec-19 2,626 9.1
OCK Group OCK MK MK Communication Services 0.570 0.75 32 (7.3) -4.2 20-Jan-20 130 0.6
Sunway Bhd SWB MK MK Real Estate 1.790 2.30 34 (1.1) 8.3 18-Jul-19 2,084 1.3
Chularat Hospital CHG TB TB Health Care 2.520 3.00 21 (3.8) -3.1 20-Nov-19 876 3.4
Ratchaphruek Hospital RPH TB TB Health Care 6.100 8.20 37 (2.4) -18.1 22-Oct-19 105 0.1
Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ IJ Financial 7,350 8,300 15 (8.1) -2.3 19-Dec-19 24,456 25.9
* Target Price under review
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P, DBS Bank, DBS Vickers
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Regional
Morning Pack
DBS Bank Ltd recommendations are based on an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)
HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)
FULLY VALUED (negative total return, i.e., > -10% over the next 12 months)
SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)
*Share price appreciation + dividends
Completed Date: 28 Feb 2020 08:03:33 (SGT)
Dissemination Date: 28 Feb 2020 09:11:27 (SGT)
Sources for all charts and tables are DBS Bank unless otherwise specified
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by DBS Bank. This report is solely intended for the clients of DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated
corporations and affiliates only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii)
redistributed without the prior written consent of DBS Bank.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to
DBS Bank Ltd, its respective connected and associated corporations, affiliates and their respective directors, officers, employees and agents
(collectively, the “DBS Group”) have not conducted due diligence on any of the companies, verified any information or sources or taken into
account any other factors which we may consider to be relevant or appropriate in preparing the research. Accordingly, we do not make any
representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the research set out in this report. Opinions expressed are
subject to change without notice. This research is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not
have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the
information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate
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any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this
document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. The DBS Group, along
with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this
document. The DBS Group, may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to
perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there
can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or
condensed, it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report and the DBS Group is
under no obligation to update the information in this report.
This publication has not been reviewed or authorized by any regulatory authority in Singapore, Hong Kong or elsewhere. There is no planned
schedule or frequency for updating research publication relating to any issuer.
The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and
assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on
which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from
actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO
BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by the DBS Group (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that:
(a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and
(b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk
assessments stated therein.
Regional
Morning Pack
Please contact the primary analyst for valuation methodologies and assumptions associated with the covered companies or price targets.
Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies)
mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to
the commodity referred to in this report.
DBSVUSA, a US-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, has not participated in any public
offering of securities as a manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months and does not
engage in market-making.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the
companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst(s) also certifies that no part of his/her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report. The research analyst
(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that he or his associate 0F
1 does not serve as an officer
of the issuer or the new listing applicant (which includes in the case of a real estate investment trust, an officer of the management company of
the real estate investment trust; and in the case of any other entity, an officer or its equivalent counterparty of the entity who is responsible for
the management of the issuer or the new listing applicant) and the research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the content of this research report
or his associate does not have financial interests1F
2 in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant that the analyst reviews. DBS Group has
procedures in place to eliminate, avoid and manage any potential conflicts of interests that may arise in connection with the production of
research reports. The research analyst(s) responsible for this report operates as part of a separate and independent team to the investment
banking function of the DBS Group and procedures are in place to ensure that confidential information held by either the research or investment
banking function is handled appropriately. There is no direct link of DBS Group's compensation to any specific investment banking function of
the DBS Group.
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
1. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“DBSVS”) or their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have proprietary
positions in CapitaLand, Genting Singapore, Thai Beverage Public Company, UOB, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Bank of China Hong Kong,
China Merchants Bank, HK Exchanges & Clearing, Ping An Insurance, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Tencent, Central Pattana, CP ALL, CDL
Hospitality Trusts, StarHub, Link REIT, Air China, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, China Railway Construction, China Tower Corp Ltd,
recommended in this report as of 31 Jan ,2020.
2. Neither DBS Bank Ltd nor DBS HK market makes in equity securities of the issuer(s) or company(ies) mentioned in this Research Report.
3. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates have a net long position exceeding 0.5% of the total issued share
capital in CDL Hospitality Trusts, StarHub recommended in this report as of 31 Jan 2020.
4. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, DBSVUSA, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates beneficially own a total of 1% of any class of common
securities of CDL Hospitality Trusts, as of 31 Jan 2020.
Compensation for investment banking services:
5. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12
months for investment banking services from CapitaLand, Bank of China Hong Kong, China Merchants Bank, Sun Hung Kai Properties,
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd, Koufu Group Limited, China Railway Construction, as of 31 Jan 2020.
1 An associate is defined as (i) the spouse, or any minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, of the analyst; (ii) the trustee of a trust of
which the analyst, his spouse, minor child (natural or adopted) or minor step-child, is a beneficiary or discretionary object; or (iii) another person
accustomed or obliged to act in accordance with the directions or instructions of the analyst.
2 Financial interest is defined as interests that are commonly known financial interest, such as investment in the securities in respect of an issuer or
a new listing applicant, or financial accommodation arrangement between the issuer or the new listing applicant and the firm or analysis. This
term does not include commercial lending conducted at arm's length, or investments in any collective investment scheme other than an issuer or
new listing applicant notwithstanding the fact that the scheme has investments in securities in respect of an issuer or a new listing applicant.
Regional
Morning Pack
6. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA, within the next 3 months, will receive or intend to seek
compensation for investment banking services from Bank of China Hong Kong, China Merchants Bank, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd as of 31
Jan 2020.
7. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS HK, DBSVS, their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have managed or co-managed a public offering of
securities for CapitaLand, , Sun Hung Kai Properties, China Railway Construction, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd in the past 12 months, as of
31 Jan 2020.
8. DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any public offering of securities as a
manager or co-manager or in any other investment banking transaction in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain
further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this
document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
Directorship/trustee interests:
9. Nihal Vijaya Devadas Kaviratne CBE, a member of DBS Group Holdings Board of Directors, is a Director of StarHub as of 31 Dec 2019.
Disclosure of previous investment recommendation produced:
10. DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates may have published other
investment recommendations in respect of the same securities / instruments recommended in this research report during the preceding 12
months. Please contact the primary analyst listed in the first page of this report to view previous investment recommendations published by
DBS Bank Ltd, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (''DBSVS''), their subsidiaries and/or other affiliates in the preceding 12 months.
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General This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of
or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would
be contrary to law or regulation.
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Services Licence no. 475946.
DBSVS and DBSV HK are exempted from the requirement to hold an Australian Financial Services Licence under the
Corporation Act 2001 (“CA”) in respect of financial services provided to the recipients. Both DBS Bank Ltd and DBSVS are
regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the laws of Singapore, and DBSV HK is regulated by the Hong
Kong Securities and Futures Commission under the laws of Hong Kong, which differ from Australian laws.
Distribution of this report is intended only for “wholesale investors” within the meaning of the CA.
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carry on the regulated activity of advising on securities in Hong Kong pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance
(Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong). This report is being distributed in Hong Kong and is attributable to DBS Bank
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on the regulated activity of advising on securities pursuant to the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the
Laws of Hong Kong). DBS Bank Ltd., Hong Kong Branch is a limited liability company incorporated in Singapore.
For any query regarding the materials herein, please contact Carol Wu (Reg No. 8283) at [email protected]
Indonesia This report is being distributed in Indonesia by PT DBS Vickers Sekuritas Indonesia.
Regional
Morning Pack
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connected and associated corporations, affiliates, their directors, officers, employees, agents and parties related or
associated with any of them may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities mentioned herein and
may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking/corporate advisory and other services for the subject
companies. They may also have received compensation and/or seek to obtain compensation for broking, investment
banking/corporate advisory and other services from the subject companies.
Wong Ming Tek, Executive Director, ADBSR
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entities, affiliates or other foreign research houses pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial
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arising from, or in connection with the report.
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United
Kingdom
This report is produced by DBS Bank Ltd which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
This report is disseminated in the United Kingdom by DBS Vickers Securities (UK) Ltd, ("DBSVUK"). DBSVUK is authorised
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In respect of the United Kingdom, this report is solely intended for the clients of DBSVUK, its respective connected and
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International
Financial
Centre
This research report is being distributed by DBS Bank Ltd., (DIFC Branch) having its office at units 608 - 610, 6th Floor,
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DFSA rulebook) and no other person may act upon it.
United Arab
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This report is provided by DBS Bank Ltd (Company Regn. No. 196800306E) which is an Exempt Financial Adviser as
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purposes only and should not be relied upon or acted on by the recipient or considered as a solicitation or inducement to
buy or sell any financial product. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular
investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual clients. You should contact your relationship manager or
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complete. This report or any portion thereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without our written consent.
Regional
Morning Pack
United States This report was prepared by DBS Bank Ltd. DBSVUSA did not participate in its preparation. The research analyst(s)
named on this report are not registered as research analysts with FINRA and are not associated persons of DBSVUSA. The
research analyst(s) are not subject to FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on analyst compensation, communications with a
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HONG KONG
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Contact: Carol Wu
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