Register ProjectionsSchool Year 2009 – 2010

SSO / ISC Webcast

Office of Student Enrollment

Note: Register projection numbers presented in this document are for illustration purposes only.

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What are the Goals of this Webcast?

The goals of this webcast are to provide ISC / SSO users with:

1. An overview of the 2009-10 register projection process and timeline

2. An explanation of how Student Enrollment creates the initial register projection for each school

3. Instructions on how to use the register projection website

4. Role of Network Level Core Teams

Goals for the Webcast

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2009-10 Register Projection Process and Timeline

Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline

Date Task

December 2008 Student Enrollment shared preliminary projections data with schools and Core Teams

December 2008Student Enrollment met with Network-Level Core Teams regarding register projection process

Dec. 15th- Jan. 12th 2009Sharepoint Platform was available for Network-Level Core Teams and other DOE stakeholders to share feedback regarding 2009-10 enrollment

Dec. 15th- Jan. 12th 2009 Special Education Student Projection (SESP) Application was launched for ES/MS Principals

Feb. 24th – Feb. 25th 2009 Webcasts for Register Projection Site

February 23, 2009 Initial Projections posted on Register Projection site

Feb. 23rd - Mar. 6th 2009 Principals review Initial Projections and submit Requests for Review if necessary

Late MarchStudent Enrollment and Network-Level Core Teams collaborate to review projections and appeals

April 6, 2009 Final Projections posted on Enrollment Projection site

April 6th – April 10th 2009 Principals log-on to Enrollment Projection site and acknowledge final projections

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What was involved in each step of the process so far?

STEP 1: Student Enrollment shared preliminary projections data to PrincipalsIn December 2008, Student Enrollment provided preliminary information, including:

Historical and current enrollment detailsProjected discharge, holdover, and articulation rates

STEP 2: Student Enrollment met with Network Level Core TeamsStudent Enrollment met with Core Teams in December 2008 to prepare for the projections process.

STEP 3: Student Enrollment collected feedback on initial data via Sharepoint Student Enrollment collected feedback on initial data from Dec15 th – Jan 12thon Sharepoint.

The purpose of the sharepoint site was to collect enrollment changes and concerns for 2009-10Information came from Network Level Core Teams (in collaboration with Principals)Information also came from the offices of Portfolio Development and Finance and AdministrationThis information was analyzed by Student Enrollment and incorporated into Initial Projections

STEP 4: SESP application launched to ES/MS PrincipalsThe Special Education Student Projection (SESP) tool was available for ES/MS principals

The purpose of the tool was to gather student level Special Ed projection information for 2009-10Student Enrollment analyzed this information and used it to create the 2009-10 Projections

STEP 5: Student Enrollment created 2009-10 Initial ProjectionsStudent Enrollment created 2009-10 initial enrollment projections for each school

Projections were based on enrollment trends as well as information from sharepoint and SESP

Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline (continued)

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What is involved in each of the NEXT STEPS?

STEP 1: Participate in a WebcastWebcasts will be held for Principals on February 24th and 25th and for SSO/ISCs on Feb 23rd and 25th , users should:

Participate in a webcast to learn about the Projection Process and the Register Projection siteOR listen to a recorded version of the webcast if they are unable to participate in a live webcast

STEP 2: Review Initial Register Projections During this review period from February 23, 2009 – March 6, 2009, principals will:

Review the historical enrollment information to help inform the review processReview the initial register projection for your school for 2009-2010Discuss any questions or concerns with Network Level Core TeamDecide if they agree or disagree with the projections and select one of two options:

Agree that the figures are reasonable, orSubmit a “Request for Review” of the initial projections

STEP 3: Student Enrollment consults with Network Level Core Teams In March, Student Enrollment will meet with Core Team representatives to discuss “requests for review”

Principals should discuss their enrollment concerns with Network Leaders

STEP 4: Principal Certification of Final Register Projections During the week of April 6, 2009 to April 10, 2009:

Student Enrollment will post the 2009-10 Final Register ProjectionsLog-on to the Register Projection site to view and certify final 2009-10 register projections

Overview of the Register Projection Process and Timeline (continued)

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Projection Methodology

How does Student Enrollment create the Initial Projections?

Methodology for K-8 Gen Ed; High School Gen Ed and Special Ed

There are five key parts of the register projection:

1. Current Students Returning: Based on historical data, we estimate the number of current students we expect will still be enrolled in each school on October 31, 2009.

2. New Admits: We estimate the number of students who will be newly admitted for the 2009-10 school year who will be on the school register as of October 31, 2009.

3. Gross Register Projection: The Gross Register Projection is the sum of the current students returning and new admits.

4. LTA students: To estimate the number of LTA students, we assume the same LTA percentage by grade as in the October 31, 2008 audited register and apply that percentage to the projected gross register.

5. Net Register Projection: Subtracting LTAs from the gross register projection gives the net register projection. Initial school budget allocations are based on this net register projection.

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Projection Methodology (continued)

How does Student Enrollment project the Current Students Returning?

Student Enrollment begins with the current student population (as of 10/31/2008)

We then project how many of these students we expect will remain in each school for the 2009-10 school year

Student Enrollment analyzes the previous two years of enrollment data for each school and creates expected articulation, discharge and holdover rates of students Rates are created across grade level and service category Rates are applied to the current student population to determine how many

current students Student Enrollment expects will remain in your school for 2009-10

Students expected to remain in each school for the 2009-10 school year include articulating students and holdovers

We also incorporate an estimate for additional students admitted to each school through OTC from November 1, 2008 to June 30, 2009

This provides us with a projection for the number of Current Students Returning

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Projection Methodology (continued)

How does Student Enrollment project the New Admits?

Student Enrollment uses the number of new students admitted to each school during the previous school year as a base for projecting the 2009-10 New Admits.

New Admits include students who will be newly admitted to each school between July 2, 2009 and October 31, 2009, and who will be on register on October 31, 2009. These students can be admitted in one of two ways:List notice: List notice students due to articulation and/or through a choice process

(e.g. High School Admissions Process (HSAPS))Over-The-Counter: OTC admits between July 2, 2009 and October 31, 2009

(including NCLB transfers)

NOTE: NCLB seat targets are a portion of the projected number of OTC new admits.

In the Spring, all schools listed as In Good Standing by the NY State Education Department will be contacted by the Office of Student Enrollment (NCLB PSC team) to review NCLB seat

targets.

Next week, schools will receive a memo about the upcoming Spring NCLB PSC program.

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Projection Methodology (continued)

How does Student Enrollment project the Net Register Projection?

Initial school budget allocations are based on the Net Register Projection, which is the total number of students we project will be enrolled at each school on October 31, 2009, exclusive of LTA (Long Term Absence) students.

To determine the Net Register Projection, Student Enrollment begins by creating the Gross Register Projection for each school, which is inclusive of LTA students.

Gross Register Projection = Current Students Returning + New Admits

We then project the number of students we expect will become LTA students. To estimate the number of LTAs, we assume the same LTA percentage by grade as in the October 31, 2008 audited register and apply that percentage to the gross register projection.

By subtracting the projected LTAs from the gross register projection Student Enrollment creates the Net Register Projection.

Gross Register Projection – LTAs = Net Register Projection

.

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Projection Methodology (continued)

How does Student Enrollment create Initial Enrollment Projections?

For the 2009-10 initial enrollment projections, Student Enrollment also took the following information into consideration when creating the initial projections:

Feedback from Network Level Core Teams, shared via Sharepoint site

Feedback from Finance and Administration (F&A) and the Office of Portfolio Development (OPD)

.

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Projection Methodology (Continued)

Methodology for K-8 Special Education projections

Students currently attending The Special Education Student Projections tool (SESP) enabled Principals and other school

personnel to project the number of classes needed in order to serve and meet the needs of all students currently attending.

SESP included data points reflecting: Special education enrollment percentages for the school and district. Initial referral rates for the school and district. Information regarding recommendation trends and the number of students transferred due

to a change in recommendation during the 2007-08 school year.

Classes for articulating students Classes for students in articulating grades were projected and communicated to schools during

the time provided for the SESP exercise, to the greatest extent possible. Student Enrollment considered both zoning and enrollment percentages in determining where the

classes are being projected.

Revisions Time is built into the calendar to continue to refine and revise special education projections as the

needs of students are monitored.

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Using the Register Projection Site

How do I use the Register Projection Site?

The following slides will provide information on:

1. Logging on to the Register Projection Site

2. Information on type of access by user

3. How to request access to the site (if you cannot log-on)

4. Description of each section of the site

5. Timeline

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A link to the Register Projection Site will be available on the School Resources Page of the DOE Intranet:http://intranet.nycboe.net/schoolresources

Users may be prompted for a Username and password (this is same as the Outlook email account).

In addition, a link to the Register Projection Website will also be available for Principals on the Enrollment page on the Principals’ Portal

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

How do I access the Register Projection Site?

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Which Schools will I have access to see on the register projection site?

ISC and SSO users will have READ-ONLY access to the register projection site. Principals are the only users who will have the ability to request changes to the

initial projections. ISC and SSO users will be able to view the projections, but not submit any

change/comments.

ISC and SSO users will have access to see their schools in their respective SSO/ISC. ISC Users will have access to see all of the schools in their ISC. SSO Managers will have access to see the schools in their SSO organization. SSO Network Leaders will have access to see the schools in their network.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

How do I request access to the website if I cannot log on?

If you cannot log on to the Register Projection Site, please email Student Enrollment at projections@schools.nyc.gov.

In your request, please include:

Name

Job Title

School District and Number (for school-based users)

District/Office (for central users)

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What will I see when I successfully log-on to the website?

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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What will I see when I successfully log-on to the website?

ISC and SSO Managers will see a roll-up page by district or network for their schools.

On this page, you can see total projections by grade and by row category. You can also see the number of schools in each district or network (Total Schools or SCH),

the number of schools that have Requested a Review (No. Rsp or RSP), and the number of schools that have completed Final Principal Certification (Final Cert. or FPC).

When you click on the blue highlighted link, it will take you to a District Rollup (for ISCs) or Network Rollup (for SSOs).

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

ISC Rollup

SSO Rollup

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What will I see when I successfully log-on to the website?

SSO Network Leaders will be directed to the Network Rollup from the main page, ISC and SSO Managers will reach the District or Network Rollup from the ISC or SSO Rollup pages.

This page shows school summaries for the schools in the District or Network.

For each school you can see the Status of Request for Review (ST), the status of the Principal Acknowledgement of the Initial Projected Register (PA), and the status of the Final Principal Certification (FN). As on the previous slide, you can also see the total projection by grade and by row category.

Clicking on the School Name will take you to the school’s projection page.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

District or Network Rollup

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What will I see when I successfully log-on to a school page?

The School Projection page initially has six tabs (more details on the following pages): 1. Initial Projections 2. Historical Information 3. Current Population 4. Reference Information 5. Space Data 6. View All

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

001MISC

John Smith

Empowerment Network 1.3

52 Chambers Street, New York, NY 10007 212-374-6786

01 M

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What information will be in the Initial Projections Tab?

The Initial Projections Tab contains the Initial 2009-10 enrollment projections by grade and by student type. It also contains information regarding the current Pre-K enrollment as well as the projected 2009-10 Pre-K enrollment.

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What information will be in the Historical Information Tab?

The Historical Information Tab contains a summary of school enrollment by grade for each of the past five years. This data is taken from the Net Audited Register for each year.

John Smith

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What information will be in the Current Population Tab?

The Current Population Tab contains a summary of 2008 school enrollment by grade and student type. This data is taken from the 10/31/2008 Net Audited Register.

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What information will be in the Reference Information Tab?

The Reference Information Tab contains a summary of the methodology used by Student Enrollment to create the 2009-10 Initial Projections.

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What information will be in the Space Data Tab?

The Space Data Tab contains information regarding the building usage for 2009-10. It also includes space and capacity information for the organization and building which is taken from the 2007-08 Blue Book and 2007-08 Room Survey.

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What information will be in the View All Tab?

The View All Tab will show all the data from the other five tabs in one tab so that you can view and print all the data at once.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What will Principals see when they use the Register Projection Site?

SSO/ISC users will have read-only access to the Register Projection Site

Principals have the ability to request changes to their projections and provide Student Enrollment with comments through the Register Projection Site

The next set of slides describe what principals will see as they use the Register Projection Site.

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

How do Principals respond to the Initial Projections?On the Initial Projections tab, see the buttons at the top right.

001MISC

John Smith

Empowerment Network 1.3

52 Chambers Street, New York, NY 10007 212-374-6786

01 M

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What do Principals do if they agree with the Initial Projections?Click the “Agree” buttonThen the Principal Review Status will change to “In Agreement”

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Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

What do Principals do if they want to Request a Review?Click the “Request a Review” button

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A New “Principal Review” tab will open

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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What will the “Principal Review” tab allow Principals to do?

On the top section of the Principal Review tab, users can enter comments and specify what type of comment they are entering.

Select what type of comment you are entering (you can select more than one)

Enter any comments that explain the requested changes to the register projection.

NOTE: Principals should be as specific as possible in your comments. This will allow Student Enrollment to better understand the rationale for your request.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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What will the “Principal Review” tab allow Principals to do?

On the bottom section of the Principal Review tab, Principals can enter proposed changes in sections A –G for the school’s applicable grades.

The “NET CHANGE from Initial Projections” shows the difference between the request for review and the Initial Projections

After updating the figures, the “Save” button must clicked!

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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How do Principals modify a Previously Submitted Request?

If a Principal wants to modify their request after already submitting a response, the following process should be followed:

1. Log-on to the site2. If the Principal wants to agree, but they previously requested a review, they should click

the “Agree” button at the top right. The “Principal Review” tab will no longer appear, and the Principal Review Status will change to “In Agreement”

2. If the Principal wants to request a review, but previously agreed, they should click the “Request a Review” button at the top right.

3. Repeat steps highlighted in the previous slides to enter your changes.

* Modifications can be made from February 23, 2009 to March 6, 2009* After March 6, 2008 modifications WILL NOT be accepted

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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When does the principal review period close? What happens after that date?

On March 6, 2009 the review period for principals will be closed. Principals can still log on to the register projection site to view their Initial Projections and Requests for Review during this period, but they will no longer be able to make changes to their Request for Review.

Beginning on March 6, 2009, Student Enrollment will review the principal appeals with Network Level Core teams and with other offices.

During this time, the Site Status at the top right of the school’s projection page will be “In Final Review”

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

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How do Principals view their Final Register Projections?

On April 6, 2009 principals will receive an email from Student Enrollment stating that the Register Projections have been finalized. Principals will be instructed to access the Register Projections Website to certify that they have seen their FINAL register projections. Final Certification must be made by April 10, 2009.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

The Site Status will say “In Principal

Certification”

A Final Projections tab will now be

visible. Click on the tab to see your final projections.

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What is the next step for Principals to Certify Final Register Projections?

Once Principals have seen their Final Projections, they need to click the purple “Approve” button at the top right of the screen to certify that they have seen the 2009-10 Final Projections.

Using the Register Projection Site (continued)

Once the projections are

certified, the Principal

Certification Status will say “Finalized”

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What is the Role of the Network Level Core Teams?

February 23rd – March 6th: Principal Review PeriodMake principals aware of available resources (training materials, webcasts, etc)Ensure that principals review initial projections during the principal review periodAssist principals with “requests for review” if necessary

March 9th – April 3rd: Administrative Review PeriodDiscuss enrollment concerns and requests for review with your principalsMeet with Student Enrollment to discuss final projections

April 6th: Finalized ProjectionsEnsure that principals understand their final projections and complete the principal certification

Throughout the ProcessThroughout the 2009-10 projection process, Network Level Core Teams can help Principals to:

Understand the projections, budgeting, and process.Work through space issues with the space planners.Plan for special education classes.

Role of the Network Level Core Teams

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What Resources and Support are available throughout this process?

Resources are available on the website, including a copy of this presentation, a glossary of terms, and a register projection process memorandum, which you can refer to as you complete the process.

Technical problems such as logging on the DOE intranet, should be directed to the DOE Help Desk (718-935-5100)

If you have problems accessing the Register Projections Site or questions regarding a school’s historical or projected enrollment data, they should be directed to the Office of Student Enrollment by email at Projections@schools.nyc.gov

Resources and Support for Principals

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What are the Important Dates?

February 23, 2009 – March 6, 2009 Register Projection website opens to principals February 4, 2008 Principals will have two weeks to complete their review of the initial register projections

March 6, 2009 *Last date for principals to submit initial register projection appeals*

April 6, 2009– April 10, 2009 Final projections posted on the Register Projection website Principals log back on to website to certify their final register projection

Final Review of Important Dates