Upload
others
View
1
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
11/12/12
1
Connection Science: Reinventing Companies, Governments,
and Society in the Wake of Big Data
Alex Pentland MIT
Image: Be5encourt et al
Financial crashes… Digital Mobs… Cyberattacks…
Why aren’t there
Sustainable Digital Systems?
11/12/12 Copyright alex pentland 2012
The root problem is that Adam Smith and Karl Marx
Only had half the story
11/12/12 Copyright alex pentland 2012
Society isn’t made up of markets, classes, parties, or professions.
It is made up of billions of individuals and interactions, and the details
ARE IMPORTANT
11/12/12
2
Connection Science
going beyond markets and classes
Andrew Lo MIT Sloan
Financial Connections Increased interconnectedness of financial insCtuCons (banks,
hedge funds, brokers, and insurance companies) amplified systemic problems and served as a major factor in the Financial Crisis of 2007-‐2009
Cascades • Recent work shows that, significant aggregate volaClity can result from micro
variability, and provides a framework for the analysis of the relaConship between the network structure of an economy and its aggregate volaClity
Network representaCons of two symmetric economies:
DiversificaCon argument holds.
An economy where one sector supplier of all other sectors:
Sectoral shocks don’t average out.
Asu Ozdaglar, MIT LIDS Daron Acemoglu, MIT Econ
Sustainable Investment
some people isolated from info poor decisions some people are in echo boxes fads and bubbles
11/12/12 Copyright alex pentland 2012
11/12/12
3
Copyright alex pentland 2012
InformaCon Flow
Return on Investmen
t Social vs n
on-‐social investors
ROI for 2.7 Million Investors, 1 Year
Isolated
Echo chamber
Connections and Productivity
Engagement: Density of sharing of informaCon within group
ExploraCon: HarvesCng New Ideas outside of group
Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved
Breakthrough Idea of the Year
Engineering Connections
Fixing things by changing the connections
11/12/12
4
Discovering Connections
Copyright alex pentland 2012
The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland
Patterns of Buying The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek
iPhone Android
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland
Patterns of Health The Next Google -‐ cover Newsweek
HIV
diabetes
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland
Designing Cities for High GDP, Low Crime
Starbucks
Extra Cops
11/12/12
5
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland
Demand
Top 10 Internet of Things Product – NY Times
Supply Designing Mobility Systems Designing Purpose-Based
Organizations 40th Anniversary of the Internet Grand Challenge
Pickard, Pan, Rahwan,Cebrian,Madan,Crane,Pentland Copyright alex pentland 2012
Tuning Social Networks Dynamics Predict Social Media Success 1,015 Social Network Deployments
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved
density clustering reciprocal
deMontjoye, Pentland
Synchronous `Complex Contagion’
Asynchronous `Simple Contagion’
Asynchronized Synchronized Asynchronized Synchronized Asynchronized Synchronized
Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved
Tuning For Productivity
Average Call Handle Time
Engagemen
t:f Face-‐to-‐Face Network
Productivity correlated with group engagement
11/12/12
6
Changing coffee break structure produced:
20% decrease stress $15M / year savings
Copyright alex pentland 2012 all rights reserved Copyright alex pentland 2012
Tuning connections by `nudges’ Get isolated users engage others
Get echo chamber users explore outside
Financial Tuning:
6% Increase ROI for 2.7 M Investors
Nudge Deployment
Ret
urn
on In
vest
men
t Information Flow
Copyright alex pentland 2012
Day Number
echo chamber InformaCon flow
sweet spot InformaCon flow
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved
Personal Data is the fuel drive smart cites and new
services…
But who can we trust with this data?
11/12/12
7
The New Deal on Data first proposed by Alex Pentland, 2008
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved
Now building the world’s first open source implementation In collaboration with
World Economic Forum World Wide Web Consortium Telefonica
Resulted in: EU Data Human Rights US Data Bill of Rights
What Are Trust Networks? like the SWIFT inter-‐bank network
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved
YOU Service Provider
Personal Information Questions and Answers
Legal `Shadow’ enforces rights and obligations
Code IS Contract.
• Secure Distributed Iden>ty: OpenID Connect, organic biometrics.
• Interoperability: All of the data is in one place in a well-‐defined format..heterogeneous encrypCon
• Auditability: User can verify what data is read and what data about him leaves the system.
• Privacy-‐Preserving Computa>on: Only answers no raw data. The sensiCve computaCon on your data is done within your PDS.
• Distributed Compu>ng: Leverages the data from mulCple PDSes in a distributed and privacy-‐preserving fashion.
openPDS
Toward A Sustainable Digital Ecology
11/12/12
8
• Open public data is expected to boost EU’s economy by €40 billion Euros each year
• We aim at exploiCng the potenCal of (open) big data, through the creaCon of a plajorm to share living data and open data among research, industrial and insCtuConal partners and extract value from them.
• We use Tren>no as the pilot territory, because of its highly commi5ed Public AdministraCon
• We involve all the main industrial actors that can provide Big Data over the territory: DolomiC Energia, Autobrennero, Poste Italiane, TrenCno TrasporC
• By involving the populaCon in the process of creaCng and exploiCng data, we sense the territory
Data from private companies and ProvenCal Authority
Tren>no Open Living Data Project (TOLD)
Applica>on scenarios: Mobility:
• Online efficient private traffic • Public transportaCon on the fly route
balancing Safety:
• DetecCon and support in dangerous situaCons (e.g. fires, avalanches, etc.)
Health: • RecogniCon and predicCon of
epidemic spread Urban & Local business planning:
• Understand economically depressed areas)
• Help companies to plan investment
• A joint project between
Data from individuals
Mobile Territorial Lab • Understand the needs and the behaviour of users.
• Provide individuals mobile phone equipped with a sensing middleware to collect the data generated to be analyzed (starCng community: young families with newborns)
• Short term outcomes: 1. Developing and tesCng a new model
of DATA OWNERSHIP
2. Understanding the dynamics of people’s needs
3. Understanding people’s interac>ons
in the generated social networks
A joint project between:
Connection Science and Engineering at MIT
11/12/12
9
Copyright 2012 Alex Pentland All Rights Reserved
Forbes, 8/10, Mining Human Behavior
http://connection.mit.edu http://media.mit.edu/~pentland [email protected]