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REINVENTING METRO
Opportunities For Our Region’s Future (December 12, 2017)
Today’s objective
To share the detailed foundation,
upon which SORTA’s potential
future service scenarios are built,
to inform this Board and guide
community decision-making.
2
Let‘s all get on the same page again
• Presented conceptual plan in Q1 (February Board Retreat)
• Continued work and public outreach/engagement
• In July, two things occurred:
o Change in state law re: sales tax increments
o Board agreed to maintain 20% Farebox Recovery Rate (FRR) assuming regular fare
increases
• This has led to some plan refinements/adjustments
• And, the community discussion has changed
3
4
“Candidates for Cincinnati City Council
overwhelmingly told The Enquirer that extending
the Cincinnati Bell Connector route was not a
priority … Instead, about half the candidates
surveyed and both mayoral candidates have said
their priority is the bus system.”
The Cincinnati Enquirer
October 31, 2017
“At a minimum, Amazon will give preference to cities
that have a metropolitan population of at least one
million, a strong university system, and a site with
access to a quality public transportation system.”
Site Selection magazine
November 2017
Our Riders and
Our Priorities
About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)
Most of our riders
are African
American, of
modest income
and depend on
METRO
Nearly 7 of 10
(66%) identify as
African
American
5 of 10 (50%)
make less than
$15,000
annually and
8 of 10 (81%)
make less than
$35,000
annually
More than
6 of 10 (63%)
do not own a car
6
About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)
Most of our
riders use
METRO to get to
and from work
and school
7 of 10 (73%)
are employed
More than
6 of 10 (64%)
ride the bus for
work and
another
1 of 10 (9%)
ride the bus to
and from
school
7
About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)
Most of our
riders have a
relatively short
walk to their
initial bus stop
More than 5 of 10
(53%) walk to their
initial bus stop
within 5 minutes
Another 2 of 10
(22%) walk to their
initial bus stop
within 5-10 minutes
8
About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)
Our riders identified these as the top three areas to improve:
Buses
running on
time
(47%)
Frequency
of service
(38%)
Time buses
stop
running in
the evening
(32%)
9
Our system design priorities are
FREQUENCY Wait time between buses
Priority: Shorter waits,
dependable service
SPAN How long buses run each day
Priority: Covering shift work
TRIP TIME Time on the bus
Priority: Faster trip times S
PA
N
RIDER
SATISFACTION
CAPITAL FUNDING
10
Our priorities also have been informed by
Extensive
Community Input:
onboard surveys; community surveys; community and
advocacy groups; local elected officials; business
community leaders; SORTA Board
Detailed Ridership
and Route Analysis:
categorized by type of route, time of day, and day type
(Weekday, Saturday, Sunday)
Expert Input: AECOM; UC Economics Center community impact
study on job locations, jobs served by transit and
community economic impact
11
Analysis of Route Categories
• “Major Local” routes are more efficient: higher population and job density
• Currently, “Crosstown” service only represents about 10% of the total service
Route Category % of Total Ridership
(2016)
% of Total Cost
(2016)
Major Local (7) 50% 41%
Local (14) 33% 33%
Crosstown (5) 10% 12%
Express (20) 7% 14%
12
Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center)
80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route.
Area Total Jobs Job Proximity
Uptown 54,141 53,820 (99%)
Downtown 48,993 48,993 (100%)
Despite good coverage in the urban core, much of our service is inconvenient due to lack of frequency and span.
13
Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center)
80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route.
Area Total Jobs Job Proximity
SycamoreTwps./Mont. 36,090 25,757 (77%)
Springdale/Forest Park 26,604 16,581 (62%)
Blue Ash 35,691 20,418 (57%)
Sharonville/Evendale 30,722 10,228 (33%)
We have poor coverage in north-central Hamilton county, and our service is both insufficient and inconvenient due to lack of frequency and span.
14
Underlying
Budget Assumptions
Underlying budget assumptions
• Operating expense growth: 2.5% oBased on 5-year history
oRepresents total expense growth
• Earnings tax: 2.3% growth rate
• Sales tax: 0.4% growth rate
• Earnings tax: oA. 20% FRR
oB. 36% FRR - set to achieve break-even
• Sales tax (0.5% - 1.0%): o20% FRR
Expenses Revenues
Capital
• Capital assumption: 21 buses/yr. o Beginning in 2022
o Based on historical average
16
Scenario Options
(Earnings Tax)
Earnings Tax Scenarios
20% FRR FRR to achieve break-even
• Additional revenue of $54.2 million
• Lowers our Total Deficit to $183.9 million
• Lowers ridership from ~13.3 million in 2019 to ~10.6 million by 2028
• Base fares increase from $1.75 to $3.30 by 2028 o $0.20 in 2019 and $0.15 thereafter
• FRR of ~36% required
• Lowers ridership from ~12.1 million in 2019 to <2 million by 2028
• Base fares increase from $1.75 to $8.90 by 2028
18
Earnings Tax: FRR 20%
• 20% FRR (000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Total
Farebox Recovery Ratio 18.9% 19.2% 19.5% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6% 19.6%
Ridership (Less A ccess) 13,265 12,890 12,539 12,210 11,899 11,604 11,324 11,056 10,800 10,555
Total Revenue 90,942 97,444 99,436 102,230 104,846 107,361 109,846 112,215 114,532 117,025
Total Expenses 100,044 102,324 104,711 107,214 109,841 112,598 115,496 118,544 121,751 125,130
Net Income (Deficit) (9,102) (4,880) (5,276) (4,984) (4,995) (5,237) (5,650) (6,328) (7,220) (8,105) (61,777)
Capital Deficit (33,349) (31,742) (13,142) 114 (35,448) 5,711 (2,697) (16,285) (1,204) 5,890 (122,152)
Total Deficit (42,451) (36,622) (18,418) (4,871) (40,443) 474 (8,347) (22,613) (8,424) (2,215) (183,929)
19
Earnings Tax – Break-even
(000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Total
Farebox Recovery Ratio 23.1% 27.6% 31.8% 34.1% 36.2% 38.1% 39.9% 41.5% 42.9% 44.1% 35.9%
Ridership (Less A ccess) 12,130 10,505 8,900 7,725 6,572 5,433 4,310 3,201 2,107 1,028
Total Revenue 96,283 106,650 112,442 117,718 122,769 127,690 132,553 137,272 141,861 146,400
Total Expenses 100,044 102,324 104,711 107,214 109,841 112,598 115,496 118,544 121,751 125,130
Net Income (Deficit) ($3,761) $4,326 $7,731 $10,504 $12,929 $15,092 $17,057 $18,728 $20,110 $21,269 $123,986
Capital Deficit (33,349) (31,742) (13,142) 114 (35,448) 5,711 (2,697) (16,285) (1,204) 5,890 (122,152)
Total Deficit (37,110) (27,416) (5,411) 10,618 (22,520) 20,803 14,361 2,444 18,906 27,160 1,834
20
Scenario Options
(Sales Tax)
0.5% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• No service improvements
• Projected deficit: $30 M ($3 M / year average) oReduced from $184 M deficit in similar earnings tax scenario
• Required fare increase: $1.55 (2028) oFrom $1.75 to $3.30
• Minor service reductions or other cost reduction strategies may be required
• Continue to seek opportunities for service optimization oFleet diversification, route restructuring, fare simplification, etc.
• Continue to look for innovations and new technologies
22
0.5% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
23
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.50% Sales Tax 74.0 74.4 74.7 75.0 75.3 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.4 76.7 754.2Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)New Revenue 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.9 54.2
Excess 26.2 22.6 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 21.8 21.3 229.1
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (2.9) (6.8) (7.8) (0.4) 0.0 (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (20.9)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 1.4 2.4 4.9 9.9 (6.2) 9.5 8.3 1.2 (2.8) 1.8 30.4
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) (19.2) (22.3) (5.6) 13.9 (22.6) 16.1 6.4 (9.1) 3.9 8.6 (30.0)
New Bus Service 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Bus Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (19.2) (22.3) (5.6) 13.9 (22.6) 16.1 6.4 (9.1) 3.9 8.6 (30.0)
0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• Amount available for service expansion: $170 M
• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)
• Ridership: 13.8 M to 14.7 M
• Current capital and operating deficits eliminated – financial sustainability
• Opportunities to add new service
24
0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
25
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.60% Sales Tax 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.5 90.9 91.2 91.6 91.9 92.2 92.4 909.6Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)New Revenue 1.8 4.3 7.4 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.8 15.8 102.3
Excess 41.8 39.8 42.9 43.8 43.9 43.9 44.0 44.2 44.1 44.0 432.6
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (17.3) (1.1) (1.4) (1.0) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (24.3)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 2.7 25.4 30.7 30.0 14.2 31.0 29.8 23.0 19.4 24.4 230.5
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) (17.9) 0.6 20.1 34.0 (2.2) 37.7 27.9 12.7 26.0 31.2 170.1
New Bus Service (3.8) (8.2) (14.3) (17.7) (18.2) (18.6) (19.2) (19.7) (20.3) (20.9) (160.8)
New Bus Capital (5.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (2.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (7.3)
New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (27.0) (7.6) 5.8 16.3 (20.4) 17.0 8.7 (7.0) 5.8 10.3 2.0
Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday
New Routes
Galbraith Crosstown
Blue Ash Circulator
Sharonville
Circulator
Kenwood/Mariemont
(4)
Galbraith Crosstown
Kenwood/
Mariemont
(2)
Galbraith Crosstown
Kenwood/
Mariemont
(2)
Alignment
Changes to
Existing
Routes
4, 25X, 43, 46, 67,
75X, 77X (7) 4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)
Frequency
Improvements
4, 16, 28, 32, 41, 51,
78 (7) 4, 16, 31, 32, 51 (5) 4, 16, 17, 20, 31, 32 (6)
Span
Improvements
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,
32, 41, 51 (9)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,
32, 41, 51 (9)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,
16, 20, 32, 41, 51 (11)
• 4 new bus routes • 7 route alignment changes • 9 routes with more
frequent service • 11 routes with longer
hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6
major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery
• Access service growth for people with disabilities
• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride
0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept
26
0.6% Sales Tax
New routes and route extensions
0.6% Sales Tax
Routes with increased frequency
0.6% Sales Tax
Routes with increased span of service
0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• Amount available for service expansion: $393 M
• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)
• Ridership: 13.8 M to 17.4 M
• Opportunities to add significant new bus service
30
0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
31
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.70% Sales Tax 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.1 106.5 107.0 107.3 107.7 108.1 108.4 1,066.5Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)
New Revenue 2.6 7.3 13.6 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 173.0 Excess 58.0 58.3 64.6 67.4 67.7 68.1 68.5 69.0 69.2 69.4 660.2
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (17.6) (2.2) (2.9) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (28.7)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 18.5 42.8 50.9 52.7 38.0 55.1 54.1 47.7 44.4 49.6 453.8
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) (2.1) 18.0 40.4 56.7 21.5 61.8 52.2 37.4 51.0 56.5 393.4
New Bus Service (5.8) (16.6) (31.6) (39.8) (40.8) (41.9) (43.0) (44.2) (45.5) (46.8) (356.0)
New Bus Capital (17.0) (16.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (2.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (35.7)
New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (25.0) (14.7) 8.8 16.9 (19.3) 17.3 9.2 (6.8) 5.5 9.6 1.6
0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept
Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday
New Routes
Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator
Sharonville Circulator Kenwood/Mariemont
Northside/Oakley Crosstown Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park
Anderson/Kenwood (8)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont
Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park
Anderson/Kenwood (5)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont
Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park
Anderson/Kenwood (5)
Alignment Changes to Existing Routes
4, 23X, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (8)
4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)
Frequency Improvements
4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X,
40X, 52X, 74X (29)
4, 16, 28, 31, 32, 51 (6) 4, 16, 17, 20, 28, 31, 32 (7)
Span Improvements
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32, 41, 51, 64 (14)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir. (12)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,
Sharonville Cir. (14)
• 8 new bus routes • 8 route alignment changes • 29 routes with more
frequent service • 18 routes with longer
hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6
major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery
• Access service growth for people with disabilities
• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride
32
0.7% Sales Tax
New routes and route extensions
0.7% Sales Tax
Routes with increased frequency
0.7% Sales Tax
Routes with increased span of service
0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• Amount available for service expansion: $543 M
• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)
• Ridership: 13.8 M to 17.2 M
• Opportunities to add significant new bus service
• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage
• 1 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridor possible (20-year financial model)
36
0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
37
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.80% Sales Tax 120.2 120.8 121.3 121.9 122.4 122.8 123.3 123.7 124.1 124.5 1,224.9Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)
New Revenue 2.4 6.8 12.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 20.2 21.9 23.2 24.5 163.4 Excess 73.4 73.4 79.2 81.7 82.0 82.5 83.3 84.2 84.5 84.8 809.0
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (17.6) (2.0) (2.6) (1.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.9) (0.7) (0.8) (28.2)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 33.9 58.1 65.7 67.1 52.3 69.5 68.8 62.8 59.7 65.0 603.0
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) 13.4 33.3 55.2 71.1 35.9 76.1 66.9 52.5 66.3 71.8 542.6
New Bus Service (5.4) (15.0) (28.1) (35.4) (36.3) (37.3) (39.4) (41.6) (42.8) (44.1) (325.4)
New Bus Capital (37.3) (35.9) (36.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.1) (1.2) (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (112.6)
New BRT Capital (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (13.4)
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (30.8) (18.8) (10.2) 34.4 (1.8) 36.4 25.0 8.4 22.2 26.4 91.2
0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept
Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday
New Routes
Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator
Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont
Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Uptown / Reading BRT
(9)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont
Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park
Anderson/Kenwood Uptown/Reading BRT
(6)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont
Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park
Anderson/Kenwood Uptown/Reading BRT
(6)
Alignment Changes to Existing Routes
4, 23X, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (8)
4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)
Frequency Improvements
4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 51, 61, 64, 78
(19) 4, 16, 28, 31, 32, 51 (6) 4, 16, 28, 17, 20, 31, 32 (7)
Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21,
51, 32, 41, 64 (14)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir. (12)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,
Sharonville Cir. (14)
• 1 BRT corridor • 8 new bus routes • 8 route alignment changes • 19 routes with more
frequent service • 18 routes with longer
hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6
major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery
• Access service growth for people with disabilities
• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride
• 3rd bus garage 38
0.8% Sales Tax
New routes and route extensions
0.8% Sales Tax
Routes with increased frequency
0.8% Sales Tax
Routes with increased span of service
0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• Amount available for service expansion: $729 M
• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)
• Ridership: 13.8 M to 18.8 M
• Opportunities to add significant new bus service
• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage
• 4 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors possible (20-year financial model)
42
0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
43
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.90% Sales Tax 135.9 136.5 137.2 137.8 138.3 138.9 139.4 139.9 140.3 140.7 1,384.8Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)
New Revenue 2.6 7.6 14.0 18.0 19.3 20.7 23.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 192.3
Excess 89.2 89.9 96.6 99.6 100.1 100.6 103.1 105.7 106.2 106.7 997.8
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (17.7) (2.3) (3.0) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (1.6) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (30.9)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 49.7 74.3 82.8 84.9 70.4 87.6 87.8 83.5 81.3 86.8 789.2
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) 29.1 49.6 72.3 88.9 53.9 94.3 86.0 73.2 88.0 93.6 728.8
New Bus Service (6.0) (17.2) (32.8) (41.4) (42.5) (43.6) (50.1) (56.9) (58.5) (60.2) (409.2)
New Bus Capital (38.9) (37.4) (37.6) 0.0 0.0 (3.2) (1.8) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 (120.7)
New BRT Capital (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (55.0)
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (21.3) (10.6) (3.7) 42.0 5.9 42.0 28.6 9.0 24.0 27.9 143.9
0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept
Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday
New Routes
Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator
Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont
Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT, Hamilton BRT Glenway BRT, Montgomery BRT
(13)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont
Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT,
Montgomery BRT (10)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont
Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT
Montgomery BRT (10)
Alignment Changes to Existing Routes
4, 23X, 24, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (9) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4)
Frequency Improvements
1, 4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 50, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X, 40X, 52X,
74X (32)
4, 16, 19, 21, 28, 31, 32, 51, 64 (8) 4, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31,
32, 64 (6)
Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32,
41, 51, 64 (14)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir.
(12)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,
Sharonville Cir. (14)
• 4 BRT corridors • 9 new bus routes • 9 route alignment changes • 32 routes with more
frequent service • 18 routes with longer
hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6
major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery
• Access service growth for people with disabilities
• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride
• 3rd bus garage 44
0.9% Sales Tax
New routes and route extensions
0.9% Sales Tax
Routes with increased frequency
0.9% Sales Tax
Routes with increased span of service
1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview
• Amount available for service expansion: $890 M
• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)
• Ridership: 13.8 M to 18.8 M
• Opportunities to add significant new bus service
• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage
• 4 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors possible (20-year financial model)
48
1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection
49
($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total1.00% Sales Tax 151.7 152.4 153.2 153.8 154.5 155.1 155.6 156.2 156.7 157.2 1,546.2Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)
New Revenue 2.6 7.6 14.0 18.0 19.3 20.7 23.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 192.3
Excess 105.1 105.8 112.6 115.7 116.2 116.8 119.3 122.0 122.6 123.1 1159.3
Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)
Reserve Requirement (17.7) (2.3) (3.0) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (1.6) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (30.9)
SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)
Surplus / (Deficit) 65.6 90.2 98.8 100.9 86.5 103.8 104.1 99.8 97.7 103.2 950.6
Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)
Total Surplus / (Deficit) 45.0 65.5 88.2 104.9 70.0 110.5 102.2 89.5 104.3 110.1 890.2
New Bus Service (6.0) (17.2) (32.8) (41.4) (42.5) (43.6) (50.1) (56.9) (58.5) (60.2) (409.2)
New Bus Capital (38.9) (37.4) (37.6) - - (3.2) (1.8) (1.8) - - (120.7)
New BRT Capital (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (55.0)
Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (5.5) 5.4 12.3 58.0 22.1 58.2 44.9 25.3 40.3 44.3 305.3
1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept
50
Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday
New Routes
Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator
Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont
Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT, Hamilton BRT Glenway BRT, Montgomery BRT
(13)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont
Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT,
Montgomery BRT (10)
Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont
Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park
Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson
Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT
Montgomery BRT (10)
Alignment Changes to Existing Routes
4, 23X, 24, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (9) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4)
Frequency Improvements
1, 4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 50, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X, 40X, 52X,
74X (32)
4, 16, 19, 21, 28, 31, 32, 51, 64 (8) 4, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31,
32, 64 (6)
Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32,
41, 51, 64 (14)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir.
(12)
4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,
Sharonville Cir. (14)
• 4 BRT corridors • 9 new bus routes • 9 route alignment changes • 32 routes with more
frequent service • 18 routes with longer
hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6
major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery
• Access service growth for people with disabilities
• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride
• 3rd bus garage
1.0% Sales Tax
New routes and route extensions
1.0% Sales Tax
Routes with increased frequency
1.0% Sales Tax
Routes with increased span of service
Summary of new service levels
54
0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90% 1.00%
Bus Rapid Transit corridor (new) 1 4 4
New routes 4 8 8 9 9
Route alignment changes 7 8 8 9 9
More frequent service on routes 9 29 19* 32 32
Service every 15 minutes or better all day, every day on major routes
Crosstown service every 30 minutes or better all day, every day
Longer hours of services on routes 11 18 18 18 18
More weekend service
24-Hour service on major corridors 6 6 6 6 6
Access service growth for people with disabilities
New transit centers 3 3 3 3 3 3
New park & ride 1 1 1 1 1 1
New bus garage
Note: 0.80%, 0.90% and 1.00% assumes 80% federal funding for BRT capital costs.
*At 0.80%, Bus Rapid Transit, a third operating facility, and a 20-year projection are required, increasing both capital and ongoing maintenance
costs. This means less money available for some system improvements compared to 0.70%
Discussion
New routes and route extensions
.8% .9% 1.0%
.6% .7% .5%
56
Routes with increased frequency
.8% .9% 1.0%
.6% .7% .5%
57
Routes with increased span of service
.8% .9% 1.0%
.6% .7% .5%
58