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REINVENTING METRO Opportunities For Our Region’s Future (December 12, 2017)

REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

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Page 1: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

REINVENTING METRO

Opportunities For Our Region’s Future (December 12, 2017)

Page 2: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Today’s objective

To share the detailed foundation,

upon which SORTA’s potential

future service scenarios are built,

to inform this Board and guide

community decision-making.

2

Page 3: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Let‘s all get on the same page again

• Presented conceptual plan in Q1 (February Board Retreat)

• Continued work and public outreach/engagement

• In July, two things occurred:

o Change in state law re: sales tax increments

o Board agreed to maintain 20% Farebox Recovery Rate (FRR) assuming regular fare

increases

• This has led to some plan refinements/adjustments

• And, the community discussion has changed

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Page 4: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

4

“Candidates for Cincinnati City Council

overwhelmingly told The Enquirer that extending

the Cincinnati Bell Connector route was not a

priority … Instead, about half the candidates

surveyed and both mayoral candidates have said

their priority is the bus system.”

The Cincinnati Enquirer

October 31, 2017

“At a minimum, Amazon will give preference to cities

that have a metropolitan population of at least one

million, a strong university system, and a site with

access to a quality public transportation system.”

Site Selection magazine

November 2017

Page 5: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Our Riders and

Our Priorities

Page 6: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)

Most of our riders

are African

American, of

modest income

and depend on

METRO

Nearly 7 of 10

(66%) identify as

African

American

5 of 10 (50%)

make less than

$15,000

annually and

8 of 10 (81%)

make less than

$35,000

annually

More than

6 of 10 (63%)

do not own a car

6

Page 7: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)

Most of our

riders use

METRO to get to

and from work

and school

7 of 10 (73%)

are employed

More than

6 of 10 (64%)

ride the bus for

work and

another

1 of 10 (9%)

ride the bus to

and from

school

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Page 8: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)

Most of our

riders have a

relatively short

walk to their

initial bus stop

More than 5 of 10

(53%) walk to their

initial bus stop

within 5 minutes

Another 2 of 10

(22%) walk to their

initial bus stop

within 5-10 minutes

8

Page 9: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

About our riders (2015 rider survey; 5,000+ responses)

Our riders identified these as the top three areas to improve:

Buses

running on

time

(47%)

Frequency

of service

(38%)

Time buses

stop

running in

the evening

(32%)

9

Page 10: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Our system design priorities are

FREQUENCY Wait time between buses

Priority: Shorter waits,

dependable service

SPAN How long buses run each day

Priority: Covering shift work

TRIP TIME Time on the bus

Priority: Faster trip times S

PA

N

RIDER

SATISFACTION

CAPITAL FUNDING

10

Page 11: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Our priorities also have been informed by

Extensive

Community Input:

onboard surveys; community surveys; community and

advocacy groups; local elected officials; business

community leaders; SORTA Board

Detailed Ridership

and Route Analysis:

categorized by type of route, time of day, and day type

(Weekday, Saturday, Sunday)

Expert Input: AECOM; UC Economics Center community impact

study on job locations, jobs served by transit and

community economic impact

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Page 12: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Analysis of Route Categories

• “Major Local” routes are more efficient: higher population and job density

• Currently, “Crosstown” service only represents about 10% of the total service

Route Category % of Total Ridership

(2016)

% of Total Cost

(2016)

Major Local (7) 50% 41%

Local (14) 33% 33%

Crosstown (5) 10% 12%

Express (20) 7% 14%

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Page 13: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center)

80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route.

Area Total Jobs Job Proximity

Uptown 54,141 53,820 (99%)

Downtown 48,993 48,993 (100%)

Despite good coverage in the urban core, much of our service is inconvenient due to lack of frequency and span.

13

Page 14: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center)

80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route.

Area Total Jobs Job Proximity

SycamoreTwps./Mont. 36,090 25,757 (77%)

Springdale/Forest Park 26,604 16,581 (62%)

Blue Ash 35,691 20,418 (57%)

Sharonville/Evendale 30,722 10,228 (33%)

We have poor coverage in north-central Hamilton county, and our service is both insufficient and inconvenient due to lack of frequency and span.

14

Page 15: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Underlying

Budget Assumptions

Page 16: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Underlying budget assumptions

• Operating expense growth: 2.5% oBased on 5-year history

oRepresents total expense growth

• Earnings tax: 2.3% growth rate

• Sales tax: 0.4% growth rate

• Earnings tax: oA. 20% FRR

oB. 36% FRR - set to achieve break-even

• Sales tax (0.5% - 1.0%): o20% FRR

Expenses Revenues

Capital

• Capital assumption: 21 buses/yr. o Beginning in 2022

o Based on historical average

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Page 17: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Scenario Options

(Earnings Tax)

Page 18: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Earnings Tax Scenarios

20% FRR FRR to achieve break-even

• Additional revenue of $54.2 million

• Lowers our Total Deficit to $183.9 million

• Lowers ridership from ~13.3 million in 2019 to ~10.6 million by 2028

• Base fares increase from $1.75 to $3.30 by 2028 o $0.20 in 2019 and $0.15 thereafter

• FRR of ~36% required

• Lowers ridership from ~12.1 million in 2019 to <2 million by 2028

• Base fares increase from $1.75 to $8.90 by 2028

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Page 19: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Earnings Tax: FRR 20%

• 20% FRR (000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Total

Farebox Recovery Ratio 18.9% 19.2% 19.5% 19.7% 19.8% 19.9% 19.9% 19.8% 19.7% 19.6% 19.6%

Ridership (Less A ccess) 13,265 12,890 12,539 12,210 11,899 11,604 11,324 11,056 10,800 10,555

Total Revenue 90,942 97,444 99,436 102,230 104,846 107,361 109,846 112,215 114,532 117,025

Total Expenses 100,044 102,324 104,711 107,214 109,841 112,598 115,496 118,544 121,751 125,130

Net Income (Deficit) (9,102) (4,880) (5,276) (4,984) (4,995) (5,237) (5,650) (6,328) (7,220) (8,105) (61,777)

Capital Deficit (33,349) (31,742) (13,142) 114 (35,448) 5,711 (2,697) (16,285) (1,204) 5,890 (122,152)

Total Deficit (42,451) (36,622) (18,418) (4,871) (40,443) 474 (8,347) (22,613) (8,424) (2,215) (183,929)

19

Page 20: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Earnings Tax – Break-even

(000) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection Total

Farebox Recovery Ratio 23.1% 27.6% 31.8% 34.1% 36.2% 38.1% 39.9% 41.5% 42.9% 44.1% 35.9%

Ridership (Less A ccess) 12,130 10,505 8,900 7,725 6,572 5,433 4,310 3,201 2,107 1,028

Total Revenue 96,283 106,650 112,442 117,718 122,769 127,690 132,553 137,272 141,861 146,400

Total Expenses 100,044 102,324 104,711 107,214 109,841 112,598 115,496 118,544 121,751 125,130

Net Income (Deficit) ($3,761) $4,326 $7,731 $10,504 $12,929 $15,092 $17,057 $18,728 $20,110 $21,269 $123,986

Capital Deficit (33,349) (31,742) (13,142) 114 (35,448) 5,711 (2,697) (16,285) (1,204) 5,890 (122,152)

Total Deficit (37,110) (27,416) (5,411) 10,618 (22,520) 20,803 14,361 2,444 18,906 27,160 1,834

20

Page 21: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Scenario Options

(Sales Tax)

Page 22: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.5% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• No service improvements

• Projected deficit: $30 M ($3 M / year average) oReduced from $184 M deficit in similar earnings tax scenario

• Required fare increase: $1.55 (2028) oFrom $1.75 to $3.30

• Minor service reductions or other cost reduction strategies may be required

• Continue to seek opportunities for service optimization oFleet diversification, route restructuring, fare simplification, etc.

• Continue to look for innovations and new technologies

22

Page 23: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.5% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

23

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.50% Sales Tax 74.0 74.4 74.7 75.0 75.3 75.6 75.9 76.2 76.4 76.7 754.2Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)New Revenue 1.4 2.4 3.4 4.3 5.2 6.0 6.8 7.5 8.2 8.9 54.2

Excess 26.2 22.6 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 21.8 21.3 229.1

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (2.9) (6.8) (7.8) (0.4) 0.0 (0.9) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (20.9)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 1.4 2.4 4.9 9.9 (6.2) 9.5 8.3 1.2 (2.8) 1.8 30.4

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) (19.2) (22.3) (5.6) 13.9 (22.6) 16.1 6.4 (9.1) 3.9 8.6 (30.0)

New Bus Service 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

New Bus Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (19.2) (22.3) (5.6) 13.9 (22.6) 16.1 6.4 (9.1) 3.9 8.6 (30.0)

Page 24: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• Amount available for service expansion: $170 M

• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)

• Ridership: 13.8 M to 14.7 M

• Current capital and operating deficits eliminated – financial sustainability

• Opportunities to add new service

24

Page 25: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

25

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.60% Sales Tax 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.5 90.9 91.2 91.6 91.9 92.2 92.4 909.6Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)New Revenue 1.8 4.3 7.4 9.5 10.6 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.8 15.8 102.3

Excess 41.8 39.8 42.9 43.8 43.9 43.9 44.0 44.2 44.1 44.0 432.6

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (17.3) (1.1) (1.4) (1.0) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (24.3)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 2.7 25.4 30.7 30.0 14.2 31.0 29.8 23.0 19.4 24.4 230.5

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) (17.9) 0.6 20.1 34.0 (2.2) 37.7 27.9 12.7 26.0 31.2 170.1

New Bus Service (3.8) (8.2) (14.3) (17.7) (18.2) (18.6) (19.2) (19.7) (20.3) (20.9) (160.8)

New Bus Capital (5.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (2.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (7.3)

New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (27.0) (7.6) 5.8 16.3 (20.4) 17.0 8.7 (7.0) 5.8 10.3 2.0

Page 26: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday

New Routes

Galbraith Crosstown

Blue Ash Circulator

Sharonville

Circulator

Kenwood/Mariemont

(4)

Galbraith Crosstown

Kenwood/

Mariemont

(2)

Galbraith Crosstown

Kenwood/

Mariemont

(2)

Alignment

Changes to

Existing

Routes

4, 25X, 43, 46, 67,

75X, 77X (7) 4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)

Frequency

Improvements

4, 16, 28, 32, 41, 51,

78 (7) 4, 16, 31, 32, 51 (5) 4, 16, 17, 20, 31, 32 (6)

Span

Improvements

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,

32, 41, 51 (9)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,

32, 41, 51 (9)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78,

16, 20, 32, 41, 51 (11)

• 4 new bus routes • 7 route alignment changes • 9 routes with more

frequent service • 11 routes with longer

hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6

major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery

• Access service growth for people with disabilities

• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride

0.6% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept

26

Page 27: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.6% Sales Tax

New routes and route extensions

Page 28: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.6% Sales Tax

Routes with increased frequency

Page 29: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.6% Sales Tax

Routes with increased span of service

Page 30: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• Amount available for service expansion: $393 M

• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)

• Ridership: 13.8 M to 17.4 M

• Opportunities to add significant new bus service

30

Page 31: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

31

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.70% Sales Tax 104.6 105.1 105.6 106.1 106.5 107.0 107.3 107.7 108.1 108.4 1,066.5Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)

New Revenue 2.6 7.3 13.6 17.5 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 173.0 Excess 58.0 58.3 64.6 67.4 67.7 68.1 68.5 69.0 69.2 69.4 660.2

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (17.6) (2.2) (2.9) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) (0.8) (28.7)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 18.5 42.8 50.9 52.7 38.0 55.1 54.1 47.7 44.4 49.6 453.8

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) (2.1) 18.0 40.4 56.7 21.5 61.8 52.2 37.4 51.0 56.5 393.4

New Bus Service (5.8) (16.6) (31.6) (39.8) (40.8) (41.9) (43.0) (44.2) (45.5) (46.8) (356.0)

New Bus Capital (17.0) (16.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (2.6) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (35.7)

New BRT Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (25.0) (14.7) 8.8 16.9 (19.3) 17.3 9.2 (6.8) 5.5 9.6 1.6

Page 32: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept

Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday

New Routes

Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator

Sharonville Circulator Kenwood/Mariemont

Northside/Oakley Crosstown Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park

Anderson/Kenwood (8)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont

Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park

Anderson/Kenwood (5)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont

Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park

Anderson/Kenwood (5)

Alignment Changes to Existing Routes

4, 23X, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (8)

4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)

Frequency Improvements

4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X,

40X, 52X, 74X (29)

4, 16, 28, 31, 32, 51 (6) 4, 16, 17, 20, 28, 31, 32 (7)

Span Improvements

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32, 41, 51, 64 (14)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir. (12)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,

Sharonville Cir. (14)

• 8 new bus routes • 8 route alignment changes • 29 routes with more

frequent service • 18 routes with longer

hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6

major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery

• Access service growth for people with disabilities

• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride

32

Page 33: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax

New routes and route extensions

Page 34: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax

Routes with increased frequency

Page 35: REINVENTING METRO...2012/12/17  · Analysis of jobs access (UC Economics Center) 80% of Hamilton County jobs are within a ¼-mile of a bus route. Area Total Jobs Job Proximity SycamoreTwps./Mont

0.7% Sales Tax

Routes with increased span of service

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0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• Amount available for service expansion: $543 M

• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)

• Ridership: 13.8 M to 17.2 M

• Opportunities to add significant new bus service

• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage

• 1 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridor possible (20-year financial model)

36

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0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

37

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.80% Sales Tax 120.2 120.8 121.3 121.9 122.4 122.8 123.3 123.7 124.1 124.5 1,224.9Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)

New Revenue 2.4 6.8 12.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 20.2 21.9 23.2 24.5 163.4 Excess 73.4 73.4 79.2 81.7 82.0 82.5 83.3 84.2 84.5 84.8 809.0

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (17.6) (2.0) (2.6) (1.6) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.9) (0.7) (0.8) (28.2)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 33.9 58.1 65.7 67.1 52.3 69.5 68.8 62.8 59.7 65.0 603.0

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) 13.4 33.3 55.2 71.1 35.9 76.1 66.9 52.5 66.3 71.8 542.6

New Bus Service (5.4) (15.0) (28.1) (35.4) (36.3) (37.3) (39.4) (41.6) (42.8) (44.1) (325.4)

New Bus Capital (37.3) (35.9) (36.0) 0.0 0.0 (1.1) (1.2) (1.1) 0.0 0.0 (112.6)

New BRT Capital (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (1.3) (13.4)

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (30.8) (18.8) (10.2) 34.4 (1.8) 36.4 25.0 8.4 22.2 26.4 91.2

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0.8% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept

Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday

New Routes

Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator

Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont

Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Uptown / Reading BRT

(9)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont

Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park

Anderson/Kenwood Uptown/Reading BRT

(6)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood/Mariemont

Addyston/Western Hills Westwood/Forest Park

Anderson/Kenwood Uptown/Reading BRT

(6)

Alignment Changes to Existing Routes

4, 23X, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (8)

4, 43, 46 (3) 4, 43, 46 (3)

Frequency Improvements

4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 51, 61, 64, 78

(19) 4, 16, 28, 31, 32, 51 (6) 4, 16, 28, 17, 20, 31, 32 (7)

Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21,

51, 32, 41, 64 (14)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir. (12)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,

Sharonville Cir. (14)

• 1 BRT corridor • 8 new bus routes • 8 route alignment changes • 19 routes with more

frequent service • 18 routes with longer

hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6

major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery

• Access service growth for people with disabilities

• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride

• 3rd bus garage 38

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0.8% Sales Tax

New routes and route extensions

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0.8% Sales Tax

Routes with increased frequency

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0.8% Sales Tax

Routes with increased span of service

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0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• Amount available for service expansion: $729 M

• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)

• Ridership: 13.8 M to 18.8 M

• Opportunities to add significant new bus service

• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage

• 4 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors possible (20-year financial model)

42

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0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

43

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total0.90% Sales Tax 135.9 136.5 137.2 137.8 138.3 138.9 139.4 139.9 140.3 140.7 1,384.8Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)

New Revenue 2.6 7.6 14.0 18.0 19.3 20.7 23.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 192.3

Excess 89.2 89.9 96.6 99.6 100.1 100.6 103.1 105.7 106.2 106.7 997.8

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (17.7) (2.3) (3.0) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (1.6) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (30.9)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 49.7 74.3 82.8 84.9 70.4 87.6 87.8 83.5 81.3 86.8 789.2

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) 29.1 49.6 72.3 88.9 53.9 94.3 86.0 73.2 88.0 93.6 728.8

New Bus Service (6.0) (17.2) (32.8) (41.4) (42.5) (43.6) (50.1) (56.9) (58.5) (60.2) (409.2)

New Bus Capital (38.9) (37.4) (37.6) 0.0 0.0 (3.2) (1.8) (1.8) 0.0 0.0 (120.7)

New BRT Capital (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (55.0)

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (21.3) (10.6) (3.7) 42.0 5.9 42.0 28.6 9.0 24.0 27.9 143.9

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0.9% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept

Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday

New Routes

Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator

Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont

Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT, Hamilton BRT Glenway BRT, Montgomery BRT

(13)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont

Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT,

Montgomery BRT (10)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont

Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT

Montgomery BRT (10)

Alignment Changes to Existing Routes

4, 23X, 24, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (9) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4)

Frequency Improvements

1, 4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 50, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X, 40X, 52X,

74X (32)

4, 16, 19, 21, 28, 31, 32, 51, 64 (8) 4, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31,

32, 64 (6)

Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32,

41, 51, 64 (14)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir.

(12)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,

Sharonville Cir. (14)

• 4 BRT corridors • 9 new bus routes • 9 route alignment changes • 32 routes with more

frequent service • 18 routes with longer

hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6

major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery

• Access service growth for people with disabilities

• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride

• 3rd bus garage 44

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0.9% Sales Tax

New routes and route extensions

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0.9% Sales Tax

Routes with increased frequency

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0.9% Sales Tax

Routes with increased span of service

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1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Overview

• Amount available for service expansion: $890 M

• Required fare increase of $1.05 oFrom $1.75 to $2.80 (2028)

• Ridership: 13.8 M to 18.8 M

• Opportunities to add significant new bus service

• Fleet size requires capital for 3rd garage

• 4 Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridors possible (20-year financial model)

48

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1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Financial Projection

49

($M ) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Total1.00% Sales Tax 151.7 152.4 153.2 153.8 154.5 155.1 155.6 156.2 156.7 157.2 1,546.2Less Transit Tax (2.3% Growth) (49.2) (54.2) (54.6) (56.2) (57.6) (58.9) (60.2) (61.4) (62.8) (64.2) (579.3)

New Revenue 2.6 7.6 14.0 18.0 19.3 20.7 23.9 27.3 28.7 30.1 192.3

Excess 105.1 105.8 112.6 115.7 116.2 116.8 119.3 122.0 122.6 123.1 1159.3

Operating Deficit (9.1) (6.4) (8.2) (9.0) (10.1) (11.4) (12.9) (14.6) (16.2) (18.1) (116.0)

Reserve Requirement (17.7) (2.3) (3.0) (1.8) (0.6) (0.6) (1.6) (1.6) (0.8) (0.9) (30.9)

SORTA Infrastructure (12.8) (7.0) (2.6) (3.9) (19.0) (0.9) (0.8) (6.0) (7.8) (0.9) (61.8)

Surplus / (Deficit) 65.6 90.2 98.8 100.9 86.5 103.8 104.1 99.8 97.7 103.2 950.6

Buses (20.6) (24.7) (10.5) 4.0 (16.5) 6.7 (1.9) (10.3) 6.6 6.8 (60.4)

Total Surplus / (Deficit) 45.0 65.5 88.2 104.9 70.0 110.5 102.2 89.5 104.3 110.1 890.2

New Bus Service (6.0) (17.2) (32.8) (41.4) (42.5) (43.6) (50.1) (56.9) (58.5) (60.2) (409.2)

New Bus Capital (38.9) (37.4) (37.6) - - (3.2) (1.8) (1.8) - - (120.7)

New BRT Capital (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (5.5) (55.0)

Ending Surplus / (Deficit) (5.5) 5.4 12.3 58.0 22.1 58.2 44.9 25.3 40.3 44.3 305.3

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1.0% Sales Tax (20% FRR): Service Plan Concept

50

Changes Weekday Saturday Sunday

New Routes

Galbraith Crosstown Blue Ash Circulator

Sharonville Circulator Kenwood / Mariemont

Northside / Oakley Crosstown Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT, Hamilton BRT Glenway BRT, Montgomery BRT

(13)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont

Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT,

Montgomery BRT (10)

Galbraith Crosstown Kenwood / Mariemont

Addyston / Western Hills Westwood / Forest Park

Anderson / Kenwood Madisonville / Anderson

Uptown/Reading BRT Hamilton BRT, Glenway BRT

Montgomery BRT (10)

Alignment Changes to Existing Routes

4, 23X, 24, 25X, 43, 46, 67, 75X, 77X (9) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4) 4, 24, 43, 46 (4)

Frequency Improvements

1, 4, 6, 11, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33, 41, 43, 46, 50, 51, 61, 64, 78, 2X, 3X, 14X, 15X, 23X, 29X, 30X, 40X, 52X,

74X (32)

4, 16, 19, 21, 28, 31, 32, 51, 64 (8) 4, 16, 17, 19, 20, 21, 28, 31,

32, 64 (6)

Span Improvements 4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 6, 19, 20, 21, 32,

41, 51, 64 (14)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir., Sharonville Cir.

(12)

4, 11, 17, 33, 43, 78, 16, 20, 32, 41, 51, 67, Blue Ash Cir.,

Sharonville Cir. (14)

• 4 BRT corridors • 9 new bus routes • 9 route alignment changes • 32 routes with more

frequent service • 18 routes with longer

hours of service • More weekend service • 24-hour service on 6

major corridors: Glenway, Hamilton, Vine, Reading, Madison, Montgomery

• Access service growth for people with disabilities

• 3 new transit centers and 1 new park & ride

• 3rd bus garage

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1.0% Sales Tax

New routes and route extensions

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1.0% Sales Tax

Routes with increased frequency

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1.0% Sales Tax

Routes with increased span of service

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Summary of new service levels

54

0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90% 1.00%

Bus Rapid Transit corridor (new) 1 4 4

New routes 4 8 8 9 9

Route alignment changes 7 8 8 9 9

More frequent service on routes 9 29 19* 32 32

Service every 15 minutes or better all day, every day on major routes

Crosstown service every 30 minutes or better all day, every day

Longer hours of services on routes 11 18 18 18 18

More weekend service

24-Hour service on major corridors 6 6 6 6 6

Access service growth for people with disabilities

New transit centers 3 3 3 3 3 3

New park & ride 1 1 1 1 1 1

New bus garage

Note: 0.80%, 0.90% and 1.00% assumes 80% federal funding for BRT capital costs.

*At 0.80%, Bus Rapid Transit, a third operating facility, and a 20-year projection are required, increasing both capital and ongoing maintenance

costs. This means less money available for some system improvements compared to 0.70%

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Discussion

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New routes and route extensions

.8% .9% 1.0%

.6% .7% .5%

56

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Routes with increased frequency

.8% .9% 1.0%

.6% .7% .5%

57

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Routes with increased span of service

.8% .9% 1.0%

.6% .7% .5%

58