Relevance and utility ofRelevance and utility of AIACC PROJECT AF07AIACC PROJECT AF07

for stakeholders and decisionmakers and for for stakeholders and decisionmakers and for informing policy choicesinforming policy choices

George GreenGeorge Green

Water Research Commission, South AfricaWater Research Commission, South Africa

Development of Regional Climate Development of Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Sub-Sahara Change Scenarios for Sub-Sahara

AfricaAfrica seeks to:seeks to:

(a)(a) extend existing capacity among African extend existing capacity among African scientists with regard to selection and scientists with regard to selection and implementation of methodologies for implementation of methodologies for constructing regional climate-change constructing regional climate-change scenarios from GCMsscenarios from GCMs

(b)(b) provide a comprehensive scenario base provide a comprehensive scenario base for impact studies in Africa. for impact studies in Africa.

Project relevanceProject relevance and utilityand utility

Relevance of objectivesRelevance of objectives

Relevance and utility of results and Relevance and utility of results and outcomesoutcomes

Relevance of objectives from water resources Relevance of objectives from water resources perspectiveperspective

Plausible, scientifically-founded scenarios of climate change at appropriate Plausible, scientifically-founded scenarios of climate change at appropriate scales are essential for meaningful assessments of:scales are essential for meaningful assessments of:– potential impacts of climate changepotential impacts of climate change– adequacy/inadequacy of adaptation strategies, some of which may already have adequacy/inadequacy of adaptation strategies, some of which may already have

been developed to cope with current climate variability,been developed to cope with current climate variability,especially when policy-making needs to be informed.especially when policy-making needs to be informed.

Conversely, decision-makers and policy-makers who are uncertain about Conversely, decision-makers and policy-makers who are uncertain about the reality or extent of projected changes in climate, would avoid thinking the reality or extent of projected changes in climate, would avoid thinking and acting beyond the need to cope with current climate variability. and acting beyond the need to cope with current climate variability.

Greater confidence in ranges of probable climate changes at scales of Greater confidence in ranges of probable climate changes at scales of national and local interest will, however, engender greater willingness to national and local interest will, however, engender greater willingness to respond promptly and appropriately, even if the confidence bands are respond promptly and appropriately, even if the confidence bands are initially fairly broad. initially fairly broad.

Therefore, Project AF07 objectives are of fundamental relevance both for Therefore, Project AF07 objectives are of fundamental relevance both for policy-makers as well as for more direct users (including AIACC policy-makers as well as for more direct users (including AIACC investigators currently engaged in assessment of impacts, vulnerabilities investigators currently engaged in assessment of impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation options). and adaptation options).

Indicator of relevance of objectivesIndicator of relevance of objectives - - AF07 has served as point of departure for a nationally-focused, multi-AF07 has served as point of departure for a nationally-focused, multi-disciplinary project on climate change for the RSA water sector. Key disciplinary project on climate change for the RSA water sector. Key questions relate to: questions relate to:

Scenario plausibility, closeness to reality, confidence intervalsScenario plausibility, closeness to reality, confidence intervalsDownscaling limitsDownscaling limitsClimate change-associated climate variabilityClimate change-associated climate variability (frequency, magnitude, and (frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme events)duration of extreme events)Likely land-use, hydrological and water yield changes and interactions Likely land-use, hydrological and water yield changes and interactions (scenarios required to provide input to hydrological models sensitive to land (scenarios required to provide input to hydrological models sensitive to land use changes)use changes)Water-related socio-economic impacts and adaptation Water-related socio-economic impacts and adaptation (relating to (relating to sustainability of water-based livelihoods)sustainability of water-based livelihoods)Detection and monitoring Detection and monitoring (signals, impacts, adaptation)(signals, impacts, adaptation)

Project being undertaken by a team of climatologists, hydrologists and Project being undertaken by a team of climatologists, hydrologists and social scientists from four South African universities. Objectives refined at social scientists from four South African universities. Objectives refined at an inception workshop involving major stakeholders, who are encouraged to an inception workshop involving major stakeholders, who are encouraged to interact with the project team on a continuous basisinteract with the project team on a continuous basis. .

RelevanceRelevance and utility of current AIACC and utility of current AIACC projectproject

Progress reported suggests that Project AF07 is Progress reported suggests that Project AF07 is succeeding well in meeting its stated objectives.succeeding well in meeting its stated objectives.– There has been a dramatic increase in the capacity of There has been a dramatic increase in the capacity of

African scientists to get to grips with issues related to African scientists to get to grips with issues related to the downscaling of climate change scenarios.the downscaling of climate change scenarios.

– Investigators are learning how best to exploit Investigators are learning how best to exploit strengths/ avoid weaknesses inherent in the GCM strengths/ avoid weaknesses inherent in the GCM projections to be used for downscaling to regional and projections to be used for downscaling to regional and even to point scales.even to point scales.

– Development of downscaling methods has been Development of downscaling methods has been accomplished early enough for at least some of the accomplished early enough for at least some of the current AIACC impact studies to derive some benefit current AIACC impact studies to derive some benefit from these methods. from these methods.

Recommendation for increasing relevance/utilityRecommendation for increasing relevance/utility Possibly too late for the current round of AIACC impact studies to Possibly too late for the current round of AIACC impact studies to benefit fully from the sounder climate change scenarios made benefit fully from the sounder climate change scenarios made possible through AF07possible through AF07

However, the relevance and utility of AF07 could still be enhanced:However, the relevance and utility of AF07 could still be enhanced:

– Through incorporating firmer climate-change Through incorporating firmer climate-change scenarios in follow-on projects, especially scenarios in follow-on projects, especially where this where this is necessary for results to gain acceptance as a basis is necessary for results to gain acceptance as a basis for policy-makingfor policy-making. Consider supporting such projects. . Consider supporting such projects.

– In future projects, the generation of appropriate, In future projects, the generation of appropriate, project-specific, climate-change scenarios should project-specific, climate-change scenarios should preferably not happen outside the projects, but should preferably not happen outside the projects, but should rather be done as an integral part of a multi-rather be done as an integral part of a multi-disciplinary approach.disciplinary approach.