Relevance of LACAf biofuels for global sustainability · Biofuels markets are evolving fast and at rates higher than conventional fossil fuels. Currently, bioethanol and biodiesel

Relevance of LACAf biofuels for global sustainability

Sergio C. Trindadea, Luiz A. Horta Nogueirab and Glaucia M. Souzac

aSE2T International, Ltd, Scarsdale, NY, USA; bN�ucleo Interdisciplinar de Planejamento Energ�etico, Universidade de Campinas, S~ao Paulo,Brazil; cInstituto de Qu�ımica, Universidade de S~ao Paulo, S~ao Paulo, Brazil

ABSTRACTBioenergy is critical to combat climate change, an ominous threat to life on earth as we know it.The strong political appeal of measures to combat climate change provides a unique opportunityfor realizing the potential of sustainable bioenergy in Latin America, Caribbean and Africa via pro-duction, consumption and free international trade. This paper focuses on the development pros-pects of sustainable biofuels markets in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa - LACAf, regionswith large potential to become global suppliers of biofuels, where 500–900 million hectares ofland are available for bioenergy production while simultaneously enhancing food security and bio-diversity. Biofuels markets are evolving fast and at rates higher than conventional fossil fuels.Currently, bioethanol and biodiesel provide about 3% of the world’s transportation fuels. In themost promising scenario, most of Latin American countries could implement at least E10. In Africa,ethanol could displace at least 15% of gasoline consumption. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is themethod of choice used for sustainability certification. A Biofuture Platform was created to serve asa political and policy forum.

Abbrevations: BAU: Business as usual; B05, B10, B100: Fuel blends containing 5,10 and 100% bio-diesel; CARB: California Air Resources Board; CBio: RenovaBio GHG emission reduction certificates;E05, E10, E100: Fuel blends containing 5, 10 and 100% ethanol; EPA: United States EnvironmentalProtection Agency; EU: European Union; GHG: Greenhouse Gases; IEA: International Energy Agency;iLUC: Indirect land-use change; IRENA: International Renewable Energy Agency; ISAF: InternationalAlcohol Fuels Symposia; LCA: Life Cycle Analysis; LACAf: Latin America, Caribbean and Africa; L/tc:Liters per tonne of cane; Mtoe: Million tonnes of oil equivalent; NF: New Frameworks; OEM:Original equipment manufacturers; RenovaBio: Brazilian National Biofuels Policy; RED: EuropeanUnion Renewable Energy Directive; REN21: Think tank and global inclusive stakeholder network onrenewable energy policy; RFS: Renewable Fuels Standards; SCOPE: Scientific Committee onProblems of the Environment; WWF: World Wildlife Fund

ARTICLE HISTORYReceived 17 August 2019Accepted 8 October 2019

KEYWORDSClimate change; low carbonliquid fuels; life cycleanalysis; sustainablebiofuels in Latin Americaand Africa;Biofuture Platform

Introduction

This paper stems from a presentation under the same title atthe XXIII International Symposium on Alcohol Fuels inHangzhou, China, hosted by Zhejiang University, inNovember 2019 [1] largely based on the conclusions of theSCOPE assessment on Bioenergy Sustainability: Latin Americaand Africa [2] and motivated by a growing consensus thatalong with other renewable sources of energy, modern bio-energy can play a critical role in meeting energy servicesdemand, supporting sustainable development and strength-ening resilience in managing climate change [3].

Mobility today is primarily provided by fossil fuels andrepresents about 29% of global energy consumption [4].Solar radiation and wind can provide electricity, but mod-ern bioenergy is an especially appealing option, as, in add-ition to electricity, it can quickly and competitively providepremium fuels that fit into the present liquid fuels’ infra-structure and vehicular fleet features. Besides, bioenergy issolar energy stored as chemical energy, which can be usedwhenever needed, without storage or backup, rather thanother forms of intermittent and non-dispatchable energysources. Furthermore, better energy access through theproduction of bioenergy in rural regions can improve

agricultural productivity, enhance land use management,reduce land degradation, increase economic gains by add-ing energy services to the agricultural value chain, improvefamily income and create employment, rural and otherwise[5]. Bioenergy is a complex energy system, considering itsmultiple linkages with environment, society, land uses, andthe economy, among others. But its positive effects andimpacts can be very relevant and represent a changetowards better living conditions in a broad sense, especiallyin low income areas [6].

This paper focuses on the development prospects ofsustainable biofuels markets in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, regions with large potential to become glo-bal suppliers of biofuels, where 500–900 million hectares ofland are available for bioenergy production while simultan-eously enhancing food security and biodiversity [7].Sustainable bioenergy can be deployed in large scale andprovide energy security in the transportation services spacein a short period of time. For instance, in Brazil, the signifi-cant share of ethanol, which substitutes for gasoline showshow quickly the transition to renewables can be made.Nowadays sugarcane contributes with 17% of the country’senergy mix and about 50% of the gasoline needs.

CONTACT Sergio C. Trindade [email protected] SE2T International, Ltd, 1A Dickel Road, Scarsdale, NY 10583� 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

BIOFUELShttps://doi.org/10.1080/17597269.2019.1679566

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Furthermore, this can be expanded significantly. TheBrazilian ethanol production by 2045 could displace up to13.7% of crude oil consumption and 5.6% of the world’sCO2 emissions relative to 2014 [8]. This could be achievedwithout using preserved forest areas or land necessary forfood production systems in the country. On a global scale,locally produced transportation fuels made with local bio-mass allow countries to do an ‘end-run’ around energysecurity challenges.

Currently, bioethanol and biodiesel provide about 3% ofthe world’s transportation fuels. But there are many chal-lenges to the market penetration of biofuels for transporta-tion. They stem from many fronts. One of them isperceived technology uncertainty, often baseless. Forexample, concerns about vehicle warranties and enginedurability with the use of ethanol gasoline blends areunfounded, as demonstrated by the massive use of suchblends in the USA, Brazil and elsewhere. Another exampleis the issue of phase separation in ethanol gasoline blends,which can be easily demonstrated through the ternarysolubility diagram water-ethanol-gasoline to be utterlyexaggerated. Despite the challenges, biofuels could provideup to 30% of road transportation energy demand by 2060with projected improvements in technology [3].

The next sections review the current status of liquid bio-fuels in Latin America and Southern Africa, assess their

expansion potential on a sound and competitive basis, discussthe sustainability evaluation and indicators, present the recentadvances in the Brazilian biofuel’s market and conclude withrecommendations on promoting sustainable ethanol marketsabroad. Sustainable international biofuels trade and the devel-opment of sustainable bioenergy in Latin America and Africacan thus lead the way towards global sustainability. Moreover,since bioenergy is critical to combat climate change, sustain-able biofuels deployed on a global scale would help limit theimpact of this ominous threat to humanity.

Current status of vehicular biofuels in LatinAmerica and Southern Africa

Biofuels markets are evolving fast and at rates higher thanconventional fossil fuels. The production of ethanol andbiodiesel, which in 2007 was equivalent to 37 million tonsof oil equivalent (Mtoe), boosted to over 84 Mtoe in 2017,an annual growth rate of 11.4% [9]. As indicated in Figure1, several countries have adopted biofuels, generally intro-ducing blending mandates, driven by different reasons,such as local and global environmental benefits, socioeco-nomic development and energy security. In 2018, 150 bil-lion liters of liquid biofuel (as ethanol and biodiesel) wereproduced, equivalent to about 2.33 million barrels of oilper day [3]. Currently, this production is concentrated in afew countries, United States, Brazil, European Union andChina respond for more than 80% of global biofuel produc-tion, as shown in Figure 2. Nevertheless, other countriesare increasing their production and use in Latin America,Africa and Asia. An updated briefing on biofuels programsin developing countries is presented in Table 1.

We focus our study on sugarcane since it is largely usedfor sugar production in the world (more than 100 coun-tries) and consider its large potential for CO2 emissionsmitigation an important asset to highlight. To further arguethe case, we estimated the CO2 emissions reduction thatcan be obtained through gasoline substitution by ethanolfrom sugarcane, assuming its production in a selectedgroup of countries of Latin America, the Caribbean andSouthern Africa. As indicated in Table 2, it was considered

Figure 1. Countries adopting biofuels blending mandates (based on [10]).

Figure 2. Distribution of liquid biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) productionper country or group of countries in 2018 (data from [3]).

2 S. C. TRINDADE ET AL.

Table 1. Survey of selected national biofuel programs Latin America and Africa.

Country Biofuel program Status/remarks References

AfricaAngola In 2010 a legislation introducing E10 was approved,

using ethanol from sugarcane. BIOCOM distilleryproduction capacity in 2020/2021 will be 33million liters of ethanol.

In development. An Angolan company secured acontract for exporting 8.5 million liters of ethanolto Europe in 2019.

[10–13]

Ethiopia The Biofuel Development and Utilization Strategy ofEthiopia launched in 2007 promotes ethanolfrom sugarcane as cooking fuel and for blendingwith gasoline as a transport fuel, initially as E5and since 2011 as E10. In 2016 were produced20 million liters of ethanol.

Mandate implemented. New plants are underconstruction, to increase production capacity,based on sugarcane.

[14,15]

Kenya Kenya has an ethanol blend mandate in place since2010 and an installed production capacity forethanol. Initiatives fostering ethanol for cookinghave been developed.

Mandate not implemented. Mumias sugar mill hasan ethanol plant producing 120,000 liters/day,using molasses as feedstock.

[16,17]

Malawi In 1982, Malawi adopted E10 blending usingethanol produced from sugarcane molasses. By2004, the total production capacity reached 36million liters per year.

A project to increase ethanol production was putforward, allowing E20 blending and the use ofpure hydrous ethanol in flexible fuel engines.

[18,19]

South Africa Although a Biofuels Industry Strategy was set in2006 and a Mandatory Blending Regulation ofBiofuels with Petrol and Diesel came into effectin October 2015, South African government plansto start biofuels blending in 2019.

Under development. [20,21]

Uganda The Ugandan Renewable Energy Policy launched in2007 supports the blending of biofuels with upto 20 percent, and the legal framework required,the Biofuels Act was approved in June 2018.Since 2017 Kakira Sugar Ltd. Is operating a 20million liters per year, based onsugarcane molasses.

Mandate not implemented. [22,23]

Zimbabwe The Ethanol Petrol Blending Regulations set in 2011introduced standards for E10. In 2013 theblending mandate was increased to E15 andthen decreased to E5 in 2015 due to lowsupplies. Ethanol is produced from sugarcane.

Ethanol production and use implemented. Biodieselproduction from jatropha was limited due lackof feedstock.

[24,25]

Latin AmericaArgentina National Biofuels Law, approved in 2007 established

blends mandates progressively adjusted, since2016 adopted E12 and B10. In 2018 produced1.15 billion liters of ethanol from sugarcane andcorn and 2.76 billion liters of biodiesel fromsoybean oil.

Implemented. Argentina exports biodiesel to US,Europe and Latin American countries.

[26]

Bolivia On March 2018, Bolivian Government announcedthe country would begin ethanol productionfrom sugarcane and use, starting as E10 and setto rise to E25 in 2025. In 2018 produced 80million liters of ethanol, with plans to reach 380million liters by 2025.

Implemented. There are official plans to introduceflexible fuel cars and pure ethanol useafter 2025.

[27]

Brazil Currently pure hydrous ethanol and E27 withethanol from sugarcane and B10 with biodieselmainly from soybean oil and tallow are marketedin all gas stations in Brazil. Production figures for2018 were 30.7 billion liters of fuel ethanol (for adomestic demand at 26.6 billion liters) and 5.4billion liters of biodiesel. Since 2017, ethanol isalso limitedly produced from corn.

Biofuels are consolidated in the Brazilian energytransport matrix, and mandates are fullyimplemented. Flexible Fuel Vehicles representabout 77% of 36.5 million units lightvehicles fleet.

[28,29]

Colombia Colombian biofuels strategy was established by lawissued by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in2001 for ethanol and in 2004 for biodiesel,setting fuel quality standards, specific taxes,pricing schemes and blending mandate. Withprogressive increase in biofuel content. Since2016 E10 and B10 are adopted nationwide.Production capacity of ethanol from sugarcane is600 million liters and of palm oil-based biodieselis 700 million liters.

Implemented. [30,31]

Costa Rica After developing ethanol blending programs duringfew years after Oils Shocks, and several studiesconfirming the feasibility of biofuels for CostaRica, in 2007 a Biofuels Regulation was approved,and the National Biofuels Commission wascreated. In 2008 this commission put forward theNational Biofuels Program, establishing blendingmandates (up to 8% for ethanol and up to 5%for biodiesel). The production capacity of ethanolfrom sugarcane is estimated in 42 million litersyearly. Biodiesel production is still tobe deployed.

Although a regulatory framework was in place,difficulties delayed the ethanol blendingprogram, such as the definition of the role ofstate-owned oil company. These obstacles werecleared and in April 2019, ethanol blends startedto be sold, initially as E8, with plans tointroduce E10.

[32,33]

(continued)

BIOFUELS 3

Table 1. Continued.

Country Biofuel program Status/remarks References

Ecuador In 2010 the Government of Ecuador issued theRegulation for Blending Fuels, allowing thedistribution of an E5 gasoline, called Eco Pa�ıs.Initially a two years Pilot Program was developedin the Guayaquil region. In 2015 all Ecuadorianlowlands areas, where ethanol from sugarcane isproduced, were supplied with Eco Pa�ıs, which inthis year begun to be available also in otherregions. In 2017 the total production of ethanolreached 83 million liters and 41% of Ecuadoriangas stations sold Eco Pa�ıs.

Implemented E5, with plans put forward foradopting E10. The potential ethanol demand foradopting E10 countrywide is estimated as 400million liters per year. The use of ethanol hasbeen supported by a well-designedmarketing plan.

[34,35]

Mexico Several studies assessing feedstocks andtechnologies to produce biofuels in the Mexicandiversified geography have been developedduring the last decades and were the basis tothe Law for the Promotion and Development ofBiofuels, issued in February 2008 aiming toimplement a biofuels market in Mexico. However,this law was more oriented to define roles in thefederal administration to regulate the biofuelindustry, such as the formation of an Inter-Ministerial Commission for the Development ofBiofuels, than setting incentives and blendingmandates. Thus, under the active full monopolyof PEMEX, the state-owned oil company, theprogress of biofuels in Mexico has been slow, asindicated by plans proposed, discussed andapproved but frequently postponed. Hence,despite of a national standard for E10 and anumber of assessments on biofuels feasibility,including advanced biofuels and aviationapplications, biofuels still are marginalcontributors to the Mexican transportenergy demand.

In 2016, it was reported an E2 ethanol mandate inplace in Guadalajara, and plans to expand theblending mandate to Mexico City and Monterrey.In general, there is a public resistance againstethanol, based on misconceptions about theirenvironmental impacts and consequenceson engines.

[10,36–38]

Paraguay Paraguay developed an ethanol market similar to itsneighbor Brazil, initially introducing ethanolblends and more recently, adopting biodieselfrom soybean. In 2005 it was issued the Law ofPromotion of Biofuels, amended in the followingyears preserving the main principles, confirmingthe production of biofuels to be of ‘nationalinterest’, prioritizing sugarcane as feedstock andintroducing E85 distribution. The currentblending mandates, for all fuel distributed to gasstations are E25 gasoline and B1 diesel. In 2016were produced 215 million liters of ethanol(estimated 65% from sugarcane) and theinstalled production capacity is 340 million litersper year. The annual biodiesel production isaround 12 million liters.

Fully implemented. Petropar, the national state-owned oil company is supporter of biofuels, withstakes in production and fueldownstream activities.

[39,40]

Peru The Law of Promotion of the Market of Biofuels,approved in 2003 and regulated in 2007, was thestarting point to introduce biofuels in Peru.Effectively, the blending mandates, currently B5and E7.8, were established in 2009 for biodiesel(B2 up to 2011) and 2010 for ethanol. In 2016were produced 122 million liters of ethanol,exported 113 million liters, imported 160 millionliters and consumed 173 million liters. Forbiodiesel, in 2016 were produced 60 millionliters, for a consumption of 325 million liters.

Implemented. Ethanol is produced from sugarcane,certified as low carbon emission biofuel andpartially exported as premium biofuel. Ethanol isalso imported at low prices from US. Mostbiodiesel consumed has been importedfrom Argentina.

[41,42]

Uruguay The legal framework of biofuels was set in 2007,promoting and regulating the production,commercialization and use of ethanol andbiodiesel. Ethanol blending started in 2010 withE2, the current mandate is E10. Since 2012biodiesel mandate is B5. Biofuel demand must befulfilled with locally produced biofuels, althoughthe government can allow exceptions fornational interest. In 2017, biofuels use was 79ktoe, 6% of energy consumption for transport.Positive socioeconomic and environmentalimpacts have been demonstrated.

Implemented. Created in 2006, Alcohols of Uruguay,ALUR, a state-controlled company owned by thenational oil companies of Uruguay (90%) andVenezuela (10%), has implemented an integratedproduction of biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel),food (sugar), cattle feed, and biomasselectricity generation.

[43–45]


sugarcane production in 1% of pasture area in those coun-tries, with an average annual yield of 80 t/ha and assuminga mitigation effect of 0.114 t CO2eq/t cane. This valuecomes from the reference Life Cycle Emissions of 27.0gCO2eq/MJ for anhydrous ethanol and 87,4 gCO2eq/MJ, asadopted on the Renovabio program baseline figures inBrazil [47]. Under this scenario, further evaluated in thenext section, it would be possible to avoid annually theemission of almost 50 million tons of CO2 eq, 58% in LatinAmerica and the Caribbean and 42% in Southern Africa.

Although opportunities for biofuels production and usehave been identified and, in some cases, assessed in othercountries, challenges remain limiting the market develop-ment. It is worth mentioning that many developing coun-tries, almost a century ago, developed pioneeringinitiatives and even national programs for ethanol blendingto gasoline, which were gradually abandoned mainly dueto low price of petroleum, such as Chile, Cuba, Mali, PuertoRico, South Africa and Sudan, referring only to LatinAmerican and African countries not included in the previ-ous table. However, there were notable exceptions: Brazil,where since 1931 ethanol has been mandatorily added toall gasoline distributed to gas stations, as presented inFigure 3; India, that started to blend ethanol to gasoline inUttar Pradesh and Bihar during the 30’s and until at least1948, when 9 million liters of fuel ethanol was consumedand the Indian Alcohol Act mandated 20% blending; andUnited Kingdom, where from 1928 up to 1968 NationalDistillers regularly sold Cleveland Discol, an E10 gasoline,until BP bought and converted this company to chemicalfeedstock supplier [49].

From these diverse experiences of introducing biofuels,particularly more mature in Latin America, where successesand failures have been observed, it is possible to extractsome relevant lessons:

a. Ethanol generally comes first for its production iseasier and can be readily deployed in connectionwith sugarcane mills processing sugarcane;

b. Blending mandates are an effective strategy forintroducing biofuels, but should be defined care-fully and adopted progressively, considering thesupply and market conditions and constraints;

c. Clear government support is necessary to implementa sustainable biofuels market. Consistent legislative/regulatory frameworks are essential, including pricingmechanisms, tax structure and incentives to invest-ors, as well as promoting inclusive dialogues amongrelevant stakeholders and ensuring environment andworker’s rights protection;

d. The oil industry attitude is crucial. They are ownersand operators of fuels terminals where biofuelsblending takes place. The impact of biofuels in thevalue chain of fuels in the market, may affect theindustry losses or gains. Thus, biofuel marketexpansion may threaten the oil industry profitabilityand become a decisive factor of biofuels success.

e. Obviously, the OEMs (original equipment manufac-turers) who build the engines that consume bio-fuels play a key role in market penetration ofbiofuels. Although there are no technical reasons tooppose the utilization of biofuels, the OEMs may bedriven by other considerations in specific markets,such as promoting new technologies based on elec-tric or hybrid drivetrains.

f. Public communication and information are alsoimportant, to reduce misinformation about biofuelsimpacts in production and use, and improve under-standing of driving forces and expected benefits toindividuals and society at large.

g. As is the case with all commercial fuels, the com-bination of local production and trade of biofuelshelps stabilize the biofuels market. Thus, trade bar-riers should be avoided.

Prospects of ethanol from sugarcane in LatinAmerica and Southern Africa

The potential of bioenergy from sugarcane in LatinAmerica, the Caribbean and Southern Africa – LACAf wasanalyzed by [50]. The main conclusions are that sugarcanebioenergy is a strategic approach for development in theLACAf and a potential source of clean, affordable and

Table 2. Current sugarcane production and in 1% of the pasture land inselected countries of Latin America and Southern Africa.

Country1% of pasturearea (1000 ha)a

Sugarcanepotentialproduction(1000 t)b

GHG emissionannuallymitigated

(Mt CO2/year)c

Latin America and the CaribbeanArgentina 1085 86,800 9.90Bolivia 330 26,400 3.01Colombia 392 31,360 3.58Costa Rica 13 1040 0.12Cuba 28 2240 0.26Dominican Republic 12 960 0.11Ecuador 50 4000 0.46El Salvador 6 480 0.05Guatemala 20 1600 0.18Honduras 18 1440 0.16Mexico 2 160 0.02Nicaragua 809 64,720 7.38Panama 33 2640 0.30Paraguay 15 1200 0.14Peru 170 13,600 1.55Venezuela 188 15,040 1.71Subtotal 3171 253,680 28.92Southern AfricaAngola 571 45,696 5.21Malawi 20 1568 0.18Mauritius

sustainable energy for the world via trade. Such prospectswould depend strongly on stable policies, unhindered bio-fuels trade and the full implementation of the ParisAccords on climate change.

Globally, the drivers for the market penetration of bio-fuels, ethanol in particular, have varied over the years.Initially, ethanol’s high-octane value led to its substitution fortetraethyl lead. Then, at the onset of the oil crises of 1973and 1979, gasoline substitution was the key driver. Later on,local environmental air quality issues became the main mov-ing force, especially reduction of emissions of carbon monox-ide, particulates, unburned hydrocarbons and NOx. Lately,the concern over mitigation greenhouse gas emissions tolimit climate change impacts became important.

All along, penetration challenges included issues such asland use changes affecting natural ecosystems, habitats,flora and fauna; food versus fuel dichotomy; technicalissues in the end-use as exemplified by materials compati-bility, engine durability, solubility and phase separation.These barriers had limited scientific or technical basis, andoften resulted from lack of knowledge and sometimes fromcommercial interests of some stakeholders. An importantchallenge still is the constraints on international trade ofbiofuels, especially ethanol. All commercial energy (electri-city, coal, oil and gas) is traded internationally supportedby futures and options markets, without much obstacles,except biofuels.

For example, phase separation in water-ethanol-gasolineblends has been demonstrated scientifically not to be anissue of concern in spark ignition engines even in cold climesas depicted in Figure 4 [52]. With respect to fuel composition,materials compatibility and engine durability, the WorldwideFuel Charter developed by the major international enginemanufacturers shows the appropriate measures to effectivelyuse ethanol and biodiesel as fuels [53].

Many countries of Latin America, the Caribbean andSouthern Africa present common features regarding theirenergy scenario: high dependence on imported fossil fuels,favorable conditions to develop modern bioenergy produc-tion, appropriate climate, plentiful high-quality land forexpanding agricultural production, little or no competitionamong land uses. Focused on wet tropical and subtropicalcountries of this region, an assessment of bioenergy (ethanoland electricity) production potential from sugarcane wasdone [50]. The results are briefly presented below.

Two ethanol scenarios were studied, exploring the shortterm and improved prospects, particularly with regards tofeedstock availability:

Business as usual (BAU): considers ethanol produced only fromsugarcane molasses, a by-product from the existing sugarcaneproduction with a yield of 10 liters per ton of cane (tc), notaffecting the sugar production.

New frameworks (NF): considers sugarcane cultivated on 1% ofthe current pasture land, with an average yield of 80 t/ha.Pasture lands are usually underutilized and by applying betterpractices, such as rotational grazing and integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems, is possible to increase theproductivity without compromising the grazing activity [54]. Inthis scenario, it is assumed that ethanol is produced frommolasses in existing sugar mills with a yield of 10 liter/tc anddirect juice in new sugar mills with a yield of 80 liter/tc.

Both scenarios assume that sugarcane is processed insugar mills with a crushing capacity of one million tons peryear and distillery self-consumption of 30 kWh/t cane. Theuse of ethanol is considered in blends with gasoline and,in African countries, also as cooking fuel. Details of meth-odology are available in [5,55]. Table 2 presents the sugar-cane production in 2015 and potential production ofsugarcane using a relatively small fraction of the nationalland in selected Latin American and Southern African coun-tries. The potential for avoided emissions is also shown, asmentioned earlier in this article. As could be expected, thesugarcane potential production varies over a wide range,indicating that possibly different approaches would beneeded to deal with the economies of scale of sugarcaneprojects. Based on these projections of feedstock availabil-ity, Figure 5 presents the potential ethanol production forboth scenarios. Aiming to evaluate the importance of etha-nol production in relation to the domestic demand, thelevel of blending which can be achieved in each scenario isalso shown. Typically blending up to 10% in gasoline (E10)have been adopted without any technical difficulties inconventional carbureted Otto engines, and requiring simpleadjusts to higher blends, have been progressively intro-duced in some countries, such as Brazil and Paraguay withE27, and Argentina with E20. In countries where ethanolsurpluses are available, as indicated in this figure, besidesother uses and trade, pure ethanol or flexible vehicles (ableto use any ethanol/gasoline blend) can be introduced.

For the BAU scenario, just using the current availabilityof molasses as feedstock for ethanol production, countriessuch as Cuba, Guatemala and Nicaragua could almostimmediately displace at least 10% of gasoline consumption.In Africa, countries as Malawi, Mauritius, Swaziland andZimbabwe could easily reach E10, as already implementedin Malawi and Zimbabwe. For the NF scenario, most ofLatin American countries could implement at least E10, andin Bolivia, Colombia, Nicaragua, Paraguay and Peru it wouldbe possible to adopt E20. In Africa, ethanol could displaceat least 15% of gasoline consumption, except in countriesas Mauritius and Tanzania due to their low availability ofpasture land. On the other hand, the ethanol potential inZambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique is larger than the cur-rent gasoline consumption in transport, which suggeststhese three countries could become large exportersof ethanol.

Figure 4. Ethanol-gasoline-water ternary phase diagram [51, 52].


For the African countries, the prospects for ethanol useas cooking fuel seems especially promising. In this region,solid biomass (wood and charcoal) is the main source ofenergy for preparing food, typically burned in low effi-ciency and smoky stoves, associated to serious healthproblems and deforestation. Ethanol stoves, clean andmore efficient, has been promoted as an alternative tech-nology and had good public acceptation [56]. To evaluatethis context, it was assumed that a typical household use1.5 kg of firewood per capita per day, obtained from0.9 ha of forest for wood gathering [57], which can bedisplaced by 360 liters of ethanol per year. For the NFscenario, the African countries studied could meet atleast 50% of the cooking fuel demand with ethanol,except Malawi, Mauritius and Tanzania due to their lowavailability of pasture land. Thus, approximately 85 milliontons of firewood per year (in 2030) could be saved by

implementing the NF scenario in these African countries,reducing deforestation remarkably.

The increasing focus on sustainability

Among the renewable energy options bioenergy is consid-ered the one with the largest potential to contribute tosustainable development goals [58] and generation of jobsin developing regions [2]. Governments around the worldare motivated to promote bioenergy and biofuels, and sev-eral conditions for achieving GHG emission savings. Inmany countries, significant research is taking place todefine sustainable practices for mitigating emissions andfor social advancement. Interdisciplinary and transversal ini-tiatives are being deployed to define principles, indicatorsand standards. For many years now, the Global BioenergyPartnership (GBEP) is developing and testing a set of

Figure 5. Potential ethanol supply in Latin America, the Caribbean and Southern Africa and blending level that can accomplished considering the nationalgasoline demand. E indicates the potential gasoline blend that could be achieved in each country, from 2015 data in [50].

BIOFUELS 7

sustainability indicators in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia,Egypt, Ethiopia, Germany, Ghana, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya,The Netherlands, Paraguay, Uruguay and Vietnam [59].These indicators are voluntary and not used for certificationpurposes.

Life cycle analysis (LCA) is the method of choice used bymost for certification of carbon emissions. Carbon intensityaccounting for greenhouse gas balances of bioenergy sys-tems in comparison with fossil energy systems (g CO2 eq./MJ) was developed by IEA Bioenergy [60]. The result of lifecycle GHG emissions can vary significantly though depend-ing on the LCA approach used, type and characteristics offeedstocks, system boundaries, functional unit, referenceenergy systems, conversion technologies, treatment of co-products, direct/indirect land-use change, amongothers [61].

A general approach in policy is to define biofuels asconventional or advanced depending on the feedstockused to produce it. This concept, used in the RenewableEnergy Directive of European Commission [62], classifies asconventional those that use starch and sucrose as sourceand as advanced those produced from lignocellulosiccrops, grasses, waste, agricultural and forest residues(second generation biofuels) as well as from algae (thirdgeneration biofuels) [63]. This approach has led to distor-tions. The definition of advanced biofuels should refer tothe resulting sustainability outcome and emissions mitiga-tion capacity rather than the technological route throughwhich they are produced or which feedstock is used [64].Sustainability implies evaluating the whole productionchain from feedstocks and conversion to end use. In fact,when considering the whole chain, bioethanol derivedfrom starch or sucrose can be as sustainable or better thanlignocellulosic bioethanol produced from residues. It cansignificantly contribute to decreasing GHG, and in thisrespect, first-generation sugarcane bioethanol produced inBrazil is also classified as an advanced biofuel [65].

Using another approach, the International EnergyAgency recommends that the biofuels sustainability defin-ition be based on the actual GHG performance of specificroutes from feedstock to energy, rather than a classificationbased on feedstocks or technologies introducing the term‘novel advanced biofuels’ to discriminate between levels ofmaturity [66].

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions savings compared withfossil fuels are used to certify biofuels in the USA [67] andmore recently Brazil by the Renovabio program [68] whichprovides a market-based incentive by issuing GHG emis-sions reduction certificates to biofuels producers that canbe traded in the stock market and purchased by fuel dis-tributors. These certificates are named ‘Cbio’ (an acronymfor Decarbonization Credit), with one Cbio correspondingto a reduction of one ton of carbon dioxide equivalent(CO2eq) in comparison to fossil fuel emissions. Biofuels pro-duction must be certified through an LCA analysis in orderfor a producer to be able to obtain Cbio certificates.

Different policy instruments take into consideration esti-mates of indirect land use changes (ILUC) [69], includingthe EU REDII (Renewable Energy Directive II), the USA EPA(Environmental Protection Agency) and the CalifornianCARB (California Air Resources Board Low Carbon FuelStandard), but to different extents. REDII recently

determined that first generation biofuels with a high risk ofILUC will no longer count towards the EU’s renewableenergy goals from 2030. Incremental knowledge accumula-tion has changed the results of ILUC estimates when effortsare made to account as much as possible to the complex-ities of the agricultural systems and markets. iLUC factors,from the initial GHG estimates of 104 g CO2-equivalent(CO2-e) per megajoule (MJ) of US corn ethanol, withimproved model values decreased to as low as 6 g CO2 e/MJ. For comparison, the emission factor of gasoline is 92 gCO2 e/MJ. In the case of sugarcane estimates decreasedfrom 111 to 13.9 g CO2e/MJ, almost a ten-fold decrease[69]. The fact is that bioenergy expansion does not need tobe made at the expense of native forests. Taking the mostconservative approach, a study considered only the landareas suitable for rainfed agriculture and concluded thatafter excluding anticipated demands for cropland, naturalforests and forest plantations, urban land (including allow-ance for expansion), and increased land for biodiversityprotection (as recommended by the World Wildlife Fund) atotal of over 900 Mha is available for bioenergy. Also, theyestimated that only 50–200 Mha is required for productionof 135 EJ of modern bioenergy by 2050 [7]. Most of thispotentially available land is located in Latin America andAfrica, currently categorized as pasture, although not all ofit has livestock on it, and is managed at very low intensityif at all.

The growing consensus around the world of the urgentneed to transition to a low carbon economy and the giantpotential of bioenergy has indicated the need for inter-national collaboration. The apparent lack of a dedicatedmultilateral agency focused on attending to the needs ofthose rapidly scaling up sustainable bioenergy productionled to the establishment of the Biofuture Platform [70], anintergovernmental, inclusive stakeholders’ alliance of coun-tries dedicated to promoting collaboration, dialogue andawareness raising in the low carbon bioenergy and bio-economy fields. The role of the Biofuture Platform is toserve as a political, policy and communication forum, cata-lyzing other initiatives and leveraging knowledge and tech-nical expertise developed by agencies and programs suchas IEA Bioenergy Taskforces, IRENA, the IEA, and others,seeking to accelerate change at the national level for thedeployment of bioenergy and biomass derived bioproductsto scale.

Conclusions and recommendations

Bioenergy can help Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africaface the uncertainty that future climate change presents. Itcan not only reduce greenhouse gases, but help to bringaccess to secure, reliable energy and create more resilientinfrastructures and essential services to withstand climatechange [2].

We estimate that in 25 countries from Latin Americaand Africa a total of 437Mt of sugarcane could be pro-duced anually using only 1% of their pastureland. About50Mt CO2eq of avoided emissions could be achieved ifethanol production and use were to be adopted, promot-ing domestic use and trade of surpluses, bringing positiveimpacts in several levels.


In fact, sustainable bioenergy deployment in LatinAmerica and Africa and in the world at large:

� plays a critical role in global sustainable development� is crucial to reach a renewable energy mix� has unique features over and beyond hydro, solar and

wind provision of electricity� has large scalability and sustainability potential� promotes local production and agricultural growth and

broader rural development� expands and can co-exist with food security and

biodiversity� improves soil quality when energy crops substi-

tute pastures� produces feedstock that can be combined with forest

preservation/recovery� promotes business innovation� drives the bioeconomy supported by International

cooperation and trade

The sustainability of biofuels depends on internationaltrade [71]. Bioenergy trade today is based on first gener-ation biofuels, which are tied up to the agricultural market[72]. Disengaging biofuels from agriculture would allow sig-nificant market expansion without the hindrances of agri-cultural commodity restraints and associated uncertaintyand volatility. Stable policies and a well-established futuresand options market would help a great deal.

This development depends on the increased globaldemand for biofuels. The market penetration of large-scalelower cost second-generation biofuels, whose feedstockswould be cellulosic in nature can stimulate deployment ofnew technologies while existing ones guarantee a fast tran-sition. Current EU policy proposals lead in this direction.

With the increasing political relevance of climatechange, the competitiveness of sustainable biofuels mayincrease as they add to sustainability. The demand for sus-tainability would likely increase value in biofuels trade, andsustainability itself could be traded.

A significant scale of biofuels can be achieved in thelong-term future, by future generation biofuels supple-menting the supply of first-generation biofuels. Then, astructural base for markets could be established to movefrom opportunistic trade to a more stable, structured andsustainable trade. Biofuels then would have become trulyenergy commodities.

In sum, with proper preparation, policies, implementa-tion, financing, international trade, and monitoring, bioen-ergy can help bring both economic and environmentalhealth and prosperity, in a word – sustainability – to LatinAmerica and Africa and the world at large.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding

We would like to acknowledge funding from State of S~ao PauloFoundation (FAPESP Proc. 2018/16098-3).

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AbstractIntroductionCurrent status of vehicular biofuels in Latin America and Southern AfricaProspects of ethanol from sugarcane in Latin America and Southern AfricaThe increasing focus on sustainabilityConclusions and recommendationsDisclosure statementReferences

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