Upload
nguyentram
View
219
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 9960 10000 9700
Markets shrugged off weak GDP data and posted decent gains today, thanks to firm global markets. After a flat start, Nifty moved gradually higher and closed around the day’s high. In line with the benchmark, noticeable recovery was witnessed across the board wherein realty, pharma, media and auto pack gained maximum.
Though Nifty has managed to surpass the 9900 zone but the actual test is to sustain above 10000. We haven’t seen any decisive move yet and indications are still mixed. Traders should continue with stock specific trading approach and see how market behaves at higher levels.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
AUTO STABLE
ENERGY STABLE
REALTY WEAK
News
Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD FYTD
FII 78 -15996 -25368
DII 510 16207 41047
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 149541 12492
IDXOPT 2644237 226925
STKFUTS 684422 53734
Derivative Ideas **
Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose after settlement agreement with US-based Vivus to resolve a long-pending patent litigation related to anti-obesity pill Qsymia. The settlement agreement permits the company to begin selling a generic version of Qsymia on June 1, 2025, or earlier under certain circumstances. In the event of a launch earlier than June 1, 2025, Vivus will receive a royalty on sales of the generic version of Qsymia. The drug is used to manage chronic overweight in adults with obesity symptoms.
Among some key auto sales numbers released for the month of August, Bajaj Auto reported 3% jump in total sales to 335,031 units compared to 325,347 units reported in the same month of last year. Total motorcycles sales of Eicher Motors rose 22% to 67,977 units in August 2017 over August 2016.
Tata Motors reported 14% jump in passenger and commercial vehicles (including exports). The company's domestic sales of commercial and passenger vehicles rose 26% to 45,906 units due to growing demand across segments and increased positive customer sentiments.
*FII & DII data as on 31st August 2017
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
DLF BUY 191.60 188-190 180 210
RBLBANK BUY 535.35 530-535 515 570
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL TARGET
BANKNIFTY
Buy
24500CE
/Sell
25000CE
40 188-190 120 310
2 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Castrol India Ltd
Castrol India Ltd (CIL) reported disappointing numbers for Q2CY17 with a net revenue and PAT de-growth of 10.3% & 33.3% YoY respectively. A sharp fall in the
gross margins (-629 bps) and EBITDA margins (-861bps) was disappointing. Steep volume decline in CV segment, muted realisations and higher base oil prices impacted the overall growth.
While Q2CY17 was largely hit due to GST transition and lingering effect of demonetization, we expect a gradual revival in H2CY17, led by improved volume
offtake and stability in the base oil prices. However, meaningful revival could take time. Lower tax incidence under lubricants due to GST is likely to benefit CIL in the long term. We maintain BUY with revised target price of Rs 426.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
CASTROLIND 389.90 426 9-12 Months 389
BANKNIFTY has witnessed fresh long buildup. We
advocate doing BankNifty Bull call spread through
options as per levels mentioned below.
Strategy: Buy BankNifty 28Sep 24500 CE and sell
BankNifty 28Sep 25000 CE, between 188-190, stop
loss at 120, target 310.
Derivative Ideas
DLF Limited (DLF) RBL Bank Limited (RBLBANK)
DLF has rebounded strongly of late after testing
the support area around 155 and formed a fresh
buying pivot as well. Traders can utilise this to
initiate fresh longs in the given range.
RBLBANK has been consolidating in a broader range
for last three months or so. At current juncture, it is
trading on the verge of breakout. We suggest
accumulating in given range and hold with the
recommended levels for breakout.
3 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
Cigniti Technologies Ltd. 5-Oct-16 419 538 28.3% 220.7
Fiem Industries 26-Dec-16 1,089 1,315 20.8% 949.5
Greenply Industries 3-Feb-17 268 304 13.4% 275.1
Arman Financial Services 22-Feb-17 226 340 50.0% 217.2
Berger Paints (I) Ltd 15-Mar-17 230 273 18.7% 250.0
Indo Count Industries Ltd. 17-May-17 198 240 21.2% 116.1
SML Isuzu 25-May-17 1,247 1,525 22.3% 944.9
Tv Today Network 2-June-17 263 335 27.3% 255.9
APL Apollo Tubes 12-July-17 1,596 2,352 47.4% 1,585.0
Force Motors 27-July-17 4,104 4,897 19.3% 3,849.0
Zee Entertainment Enterprises 28-July-17 539 592 9.8% 523.7
CRISIL 01-Aug-17 1,858 2,419 30.2% 1,905.5
Sutlej Textiles 01-Aug-17 894 951 6.3% 894.9
LIC Housing Finance 09-Aug-17 681 748 9.8% 681.3
Eicher Motors Ltd 09-Aug-17 31,630 40,467 27.9% 31,772.4
Wonderla Holidays 17-Aug-17 339 430 26.8% 345.9
Manpasand Beverages 17-Aug-17 803 891 11.0% 805.1
The Byke Hospitality 17-Aug-17 195 242 24.1% 186.0
Century Plyboards 18-Aug-17 251 307 22.3% 252.0
NRB Bearings 18-Aug-17 118 139 17.8% 120.1
Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd 18-Aug-17 362 416 14.8% 357.7
Avanti Feeds 21-Aug-17 1,921 2,240 16.6% 1,857.3
Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. 23-Aug-17 93 125 34.4% 98.9
Jamna Auto Industries 31-Aug-17 252 279 10.7 % 254.6
Mold-Tek Packaging Limited 31-Aug-17 301 340 13.0 % 309.6
Swaraj Engines Ltd 31-Aug-17 1,985 2,201 10.9% 2,115.1
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd 01-Sept-17 360 460 27.7% 361.4
Castrol India 01-Sept-17 389 426 9.6% 389.9
4 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — September 2017 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
03 04
Kriti Industries India Ltd
Kriti Nutrients Ltd
Foods & Inns Ltd
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd
Sintex Industries Ltd
Jindal Hotels Ltd
Hindustan Composites Ltd
Karma Energy Ltd
Advanced Enzyme Tech-nologies Ltd
Shivalik Rasayan Ltd
Wires & Fabriks SA Ltd
Navkar Builders Ltd
Jai Corp Ltd
05
Force Motors Ltd
ION Exchange India Ltd
Datamatics Global Services Ltd
Priya Ltd
Star Paper Mills Ltd
Hindalco Industries Ltd
Tips Industries Ltd
Care Ratings Ltd
Castrol India Ltd
06
Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd
Coral India Finance & Hous-ing Ltd
Banswara Syntex Ltd
Balkrishna Industries Ltd
Simplex Castings Ltd
India Gelatine & Chemical Ltd
Kiran Vyapar Ltd
Balmer Lawrie & Co Ltd
KCP Sugar and Industries Corp Ltd
Asian Granito India Ltd
07
Petronet LNG Ltd
Caplin Point Laboratories Ltd
Vardhman Textiles Ltd
PNB Gilts Ltd
Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd
Vardhman Holdings Ltd
Pressman Advertising Ltd
Strides Shasun Ltd
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd
Comfort Intech Ltd
Banco Products India Ltd
Subros Ltd
NBCC India Ltd
Sinclairs Hotels Ltd
B&A Ltd
Arrow Greentech Ltd
Escorts Ltd
NTPC Ltd
Godfrey Phillips India Ltd
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd
Nahar Industrial Enterprises Ltd
Ganesh Housing Corp Ltd
NBI Industrial Finance Co Ltd
Beekay Steel Industries Ltd
Orient Abrasives Ltd
Mercator Ltd
Avantel Ltd
Rubfila International Ltd
Centrum Capital Ltd
Manaksia Ltd
08
Manaksia Industries Ltd
ARO Granite Industries Ltd
V-Mart Retail Ltd
Victoria Mills Ltd
Pokarna Ltd
Whirlpool of India Ltd
Bigbloc Construction Ltd
Sharda Cropchem Ltd
Abhijit Trading Co Ltd
LT Foods Ltd
Swastika Investmart Ltd
Marathon Nextgen Realty Ltd
KRBL Ltd
Byke Hospitality Ltd/The
Byke Hospitality Ltd/The
Orient Refractories Ltd
Orient Beverages Ltd
Andrew Yule & Co Ltd
Sanco Trans Ltd
09
5 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Corporate Action Calendar — September 2017 (Stock Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
03 04
05 06 07
Reliance Industries Ltd
08 09
Economic Calendar — September 2017
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
03 04
05
Nikkei India PMI Services
Nikkei India PMI Composite
06 07 08
Trade Balance
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
09
Corporate Action Calendar — September 2017 (Stock Buyback)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
03 04
Bayer CropScience Ltd
05 06 07 08 09
6 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 1st September’17
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 8.7% 425 390
Amara Raja Batteries Auto March 22, 2017 10.3% 868 801
TV Today Network Media & Ent. May 10, 2017 9.5% 279 256
RBL Bank Financial Services July 11, 2017 9.8% 532 535
Muthoot Finance Financial Services July 26, 2017 10.1% 482 476
Talwalkars Better value
Fitness Health Fitness July 27, 2017 9.9% 302 290
Va Tech Wabag Infrastructure August 16, 2017 9.6% 636 612
Nilkamal Plastic Products August 17, 2017 9.3% 1,682 1,568
CDSL BFSI August 23, 2017 9.8% 334 338
Cash 13.0%
Total 100%
7 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Historical Performance as on 1st September’17
Performance Matrix 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha -2.2% 7.9% 3.9% 34.3%
Nifty 3.7% 12.1% 13.7% 26.5%
Outperformance -5.9% -4.2% -9.8% 7.8%
8 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
9 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]
Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]
Ajit Mishra [email protected]
Archana Gude [email protected]
Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]
Siji A Philip [email protected]
Suhanee Shome [email protected]
Team Members
10 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
September 4, 2017
Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html
Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:
Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.