Religion and Fertility: A Note

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Religion and Fertility: A Note

"Religion is humanity's sensitivity to the ultimate meaning of existence, … It further provides guidelines for thought and action under all circumstances"(Kirkland, 1976: 13).

How does it affect fertility among groups of various affiliations?



Literature offers four ways: the characteristics, particular theology, minority and the interaction hypotheses (Goldscheider, 1971 and Chamie, 1981).

At the same time, because social variables may affect fertility only through proximate variables (Davis and Blake, 1956: 211-235), religion will affect fertility if it affects these variables.


Traditionally, studies in developed countries compare fertility levels between Catholics, Protestants and Jews.


Generally, the finding is that Catholics have the highest fertility level, followed by Protestants with Jews having the lowest.

Notestein (1936) Class Differences in Fertility

Freedman, Whelpton & Smit (1961) Socio-Economic Factors in Religious Differentials in Fertility

Pitcher, Peterson and Kunz (1974) Residency Differentials in Mormon Fertility

Long (1970) Fertility Patterns among Religious Groups in Canada

Of late, the influence of religion on demographic behavior is said to be more significant in developing countries as developed countries become more secularized.


There is also more emphasis on religiosity as opposed to affiliation alone, as per Weeks' (2005) caution that "religiosity may be more important than actual religious belief" (p 443).

Thus, some studies have measured religiousness based on responses to “questions concerning beliefs”, such as if respondents “think that religion is important; feel that they are religious; believe in God,” among others (Westoff and Frejka, 2007: 798 – 799), and also on religious practices such as "How often do you attend religious services?" or "Apart from such special occasions as weddings, funerals and baptism, how often nowadays do you attend services or meetings connected with your religion?" (Adsera, 2006a: 275)

In addition, many studies are devoted to comparing fertility rates of Muslims and followers of other religions

Knodel, Gray, Sriwatcharin & Peracca (1999) Religion and Reproduction: Muslims in Buddhist Thailand

Morgan, Stash, Smith & Mason (2002) Muslim and Non-Muslim Differences in Female Autonomy and Fertility: Evidence from Four Asian Countries

Alagarajan (2003) An analysis of fertility differentials by religion in Kerala state: A test of interaction hypothesis

Bhat & Zavier (2005) Role of Religion in Fertility Decline: The Case of Indian Muslims

Adsera (2006a) Religion and Changes in Family-Size Norms in Developed Countries

Adsera (2006b) Marital Fertility and Religion in Spain, 1985 and 1999

Westoff & Marshall (2009) Hispanic Fertility, Religion and Religiousness in the U.S.

Westoff & Frejka (2007) Religiousness and Fertility among European Muslims

Kaufmann (2009) Islamism, Religiosity and Fertility in the Muslim World

Kaddour (2009) Christian-Muslim fertility differences in poor settings in Greater Beirut, Lebanon

Tim B. Heaton (2011) Does Religion Influence Fertility in Developing Countries

Tim B. Heaton (2011) Does Religion Influence Fertility in Developing Countries

Muslims have higher fertility rate than other religious groups

Religious women have more children


Malaysia?


Weeks (2005: 443) noted that “religion and ethnicity are inextricably bound up with each other.”

Morgan, Stash, Smith & Mason (2002) Muslim and Non-Muslim Differences in Female Autonomy and Fertility: Evidence from Four Asian Countries

Govindasamy and DaVanzo (1992) Ethnicity and Fertility Differentials in Peninsular Malaysia: Do Policies Matter?

Leete (2007) Malaysia: From Kampung to Twin Towers

Tey, Ng & Yew (2011) Proximate Determinants of Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia

Malay Chinese Indian

1957 48.1 43.3 49.7

1967 35.9 33.3 36.7

1977 33.8 26.4 29.7

1987 34.6 19.0 25.6

1997 29.0 20.1 22.8

2007 20.0 13.3 15.3

Crude Birth Rates by Ethnicity, Peninsular Malaysia, 1957-2007

Che Hashim (2011) Religion and Fertility in Malaysia


Fertility levels are different among ethnic groups.

Malays have the highest fertility rate.

Muslims have higher fertility compared to other religious groups

Wikimedia Commons

MPFS 41 (Semenanjung Malaysia)?

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Main_Page

Fertility - the total number of children ever born alive (CEB)

Variables defined

Intermediate Variable - age at first marriage.

Religion: Islam, Buddhism/other traditional Chinese religions, Hinduism and Christianity.

Explanatory Variables

Education level: No schooling, Primary, Secondary, College/University (Bates, Maselko and Schuler, 2007, Raymo, 2003)

Premarital employment: Working, Not working before marriage (Hirschman, 1985)

Place of residence during childhood: Urban, Rural (White, Muhidin , Andrzejewski, Tagoe, Knight and Reed, 2008)

MPFS 41 (SM) 3538 ever married women aged 15 – 49 (i) professing affiliation with a religion, and (ii) stating information age at first marriage and place of residence during

childhood

Religion N Mean

Islam 2489 3.5

Buddhism/other

traditional Chinese religions

640 2.7

Hinduism 315 2.7

Christianity 94 2.4

Total 3538 3.3

Fertility levels are different among religious groups, with Muslims having the highest.

Religion N Mean

Islam 2489 22.2

Buddhism/other

traditional Chinese

religions

640 23.4

Hinduism 315 22.7

Christianity 94 23.8

Total 3538 22.5

Age at first marriage is different among religious groups, with Muslims having the lowest.

Higher level of education is associated with higher age at first marriage.

Education level N Mean

No schooling 119 19.8

Primary 769 21.1

Secondary 2278 22.6

College/University 372 25.4

Total 3538 22.5

Living in an urban setting as a child is associated with higher age at first marriage.

Place of

residence

N Mean

Urban 1152 23.0

Rural 2386 22.2

Total 3538 22.5

Premarital employment is associated with higher age at first marriage.

Did you work before marriage? N Mean

No 656 19.8

Yes 2882 23.1

Total 3538 22.5

Religion is associated with education level.

Religion is associated with place of residence.

Religion is associated with premarital employment.


Each of the explanatory variables that affect age at marriage has a significant relationship with religion but the association is weak.

Age at marriage is significantly different among religious groups

I suspect I could further consider the interaction between religion and each of the other three factors to find the quantum of religion's effect on age at marriage, but that is for later.

Basically, that is all that I may say with regards to MPFS41 (Sem Mal).

The change in Nagelkerke R2 after adding religion is only 0.006, as opposed to when working experience and education level are entered (0.122 and 0.118, respectively)

However, for today, I present the results of a logistic regression analysis (Forward LR) on predicting if a woman will marry earlier at 21 years old or later.


Thus, I am inclined to conclude that the influence of religion on age at first marriage is not much.

B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1(a) WORKING EXPERIENCE -1.609 .092 307.446 1 .000 .200 Constant 1.020 .042 583.762 1 .000 2.772 Step 2(b) EDULEVEL 198.714 3 .000 NO SCHOOLING -4.011 .358 125.866 1 .000 .018 PRIMARY -3.342 .306 119.494 1 .000 .035 SECONDARY -2.579 .300 73.895 1 .000 .076 WORKING EXPERIENCE -1.529 .097 249.579 1 .000 .217 Constant 3.682 .297 153.208 1 .000 39.715 Step 3(c) EDULEVEL 207.801 3 .000 NO SCHOOLING -4.047 .358 127.418 1 .000 .017 PRIMARY -3.421 .307 124.272 1 .000 .033 SECONDARY -2.579 .300 73.892 1 .000 .076 WORKING EXPERIENCE -1.455 .099 217.587 1 .000 .233 REFISLAM 16.852 3 .001 CHRITIANITY -.084 .262 .102 1 .750 .920 BUDDHISM/OTHER CHINESE RELIGIONS .448 .111 16.370 1 .000 1.566 HINDUISM .124 .137 .825 1 .364 1.132 Constant 3.600 .298 145.459 1 .000 36.589

a Variable(s) entered on step 1: WORKING EXPERIENCE.

b Variable(s) entered on step 2: EDULEVEL.

c Variable(s) entered on step 3: REFISLAM.

Unless the more religious group of the global population is able to overcome the effects of modernization, and somehow reverse the decline in fertility, I believe we should heed Chamie's warning. He anticipated an earlier peak in population with greater pace of decline in fertility than that used in the UN (2011) projection. Before stabilizing at less than 10 billion at the end of the 21st century, there will be far reaching consequences on“… climate change, biodiversity, the environment, water supplies and international migration” (last para), apart from issues of a rapidly ageing society and change in racial composition.


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Religion and Fertility: A Note