Remarks by Cano Velez XIX Congreso Economist As Puebla 2012, Translation by Jorge Lera

8/2/2019 Remarks by Cano Velez XIX Congreso Economist As Puebla 2012, Translation by Jorge Lera.

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Remarks by Deputy Jesus Alberto Cano Velez, opening XIX

National Congress of Economists National Project Towards a New

Development held on March 2, 2012, Exhibitor Center of Puebla1

Economists in Mexico, we are extremely pleased firstly because we returned to

Puebla to a very special anfitrona state governor, our friend, Rafael Moreno Valle,

who is an economist and former president of the College of Economists of Puebla

State, besides being the second time is performed a national congress of the union

in this state.

Just the first was when the governor presided over the College of Economists of

Puebla and today everyone economists, we are very pleased Mr. Governor,

because you are a great host, great economist friend, but above all, we are very

pleased the great support we are giving.

Thank you very much Mr. Governor.

I thank my friend Roberto Moya, Financial Secretary of the State of Puebla, his

words of welcome and support they have given us.

Mtro. Victor Mata Temoltzin, President of the College of Economists of the State of

Puebla.

Dr. Rogelio Montemayor, for his great involvement in the work to chair the Special

Committee of the National Development Project.

Our friend, Senator Raul Mejia and president of the League of Revolutionary

Economists, thanks for being present with your friends.

And Paul Rodriguez Regordosa, fellow Member "hijacked" by the governor to workhard for the good of Puebla.

All the presidents of the State Colleges.

1Translation by Jorge Lera Meja, Vice president of the National College of Economists, Northeast

Zone (Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas states).


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My friends, former presidents of the National Association of Economists.

The deputies, senators, in short, friends all.

It has been almost two years since I became Chairman of the National Council of

Directors of National Association of Economists.

We had the opportunity to share our ideas and proposals. We were able to discuss

and contrast positions through an enriching exercise for our guild.

Regional Forums, divided in 8 regional and 2 national forums, we had great clarity

of what economists, businessmen, industrialists, academics and social

organizations now think what is happening in Mexico, but above all, what want for

the future of our country.

Not only that, now after much work we not only diagnose the situation in the

country, but we can also present an agenda with the necessary steps to get out ofeconomic stagnation.

Worldwide, there are now fears and hopes. The world is being discussed in a crisis

like never before in the past 80 years.

A crisis is the result of many circumstances where authoritarian regimes have

fallen, especially in the countries of North Africa, that there have been problems of

dogmatic kind in the Arab countries, problems in central Europe, the euro-zone

where there are extraordinary circumstances result of a flood of economic and

political factors in the process of becoming the European Union.

The United States continues, from the 2008 crisis and 2009 - in a slow recovery

and is not expected in the short term, a real breakthrough, it definitely impacts us

here in Mexico.

He said that Europe still does not resolve the crisis despite the agreement on

Greece's debt, but what happens with Italy, Portugal, Spain and other European

countries like Ireland?

Growth for Europe this year, estimated by analysts is zero. That is the fact that he

is living.

Poverty is increasing worldwide. The World Bank notes that there are 1.290 million

poor people in the world living on $ 1.25 a day and that is 22% of the population.

The central debate persists economists. What have we learned from the crisis or

multicrisis taking place in the world?


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The market took too many risks with the portfolio of mortgage loans before the

crisis, and again did not measure the market risk involved while the debts of

European countries, the market was wrong.

Asia and emerging countries like China, India, Singapore, are growing at rapid

rates in recent years. China in 25 years it has sustained 10 percent annualaverage; India at 8 per cent, etc., and we see things happen.

Resent Western powers fear of losing their role as major decision makers of the

world economy.

What about Mexico?

While we have on public finances solvency, appropriate macroeconomic

parameters, the exchange rate to anchor inflation, trade deficit and relatively

"controlled" interest rates "low" and the largest reserves in the history of ourcountry That is what these economists-not-call the government's "fiscal

responsibility".

But the Mexicans and the 57 million poor people do not eat with the fiscal

responsibility.

On the other hand, I insist, we have a country that grows a little. In 10 years we

have grown to 1.7 percent on average per year over the past 30 years we have

grown on average to 2.2 average per year.Is the model or are the Mexicans?

It is estimated that in 2012 will grow at 3 percent. A good compared with previous

years and with 57 million poor.

Extreme poverty is almost irreducible. According to CONEVAL only 6 percent of

families who are beneficiaries of the Oportunidades program, overcome poverty

after 6 years of support.

There is an effect that the government does not measure. Between 2000 and2006, remittances increased from 6.572 million to $ 25.566 million dollars. This

trend stagnated, as the figure for 2011 was 22.730 million.

Stagnated since the U.S. crisis will hit our migrants also that the tightening of

immigration policies were relevant prompting many people to return, kettles

remittances became a palliative or a Stop poverty in our country.


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We are dedicated in 2001, 2002 to 2008, literally to export 400 thousand per year

average Mexicans to the United States, which although we were sending

remittances is a topic that we think the Mexicans because we are giving

opportunity to our fellow citizens to stay and have a decent life, especially to be

gainfully employed.

Rising unemployment, do not generate the jobs that are needed, we need a million

jobs per year average but today we have nearly 8 million young people between

14 and 29 who neither study nor work.

66 percent of the employed population earns up to 2 minimum wages, this is the

result of the 2010 INEGI Census of Population.

So obviously we have a narrow market that becomes an obstacle to economic

growth, and of course a vicious circle.

Persist poorly in the PISA tests and Liaison. Our education system does not make

the workforce more productive, then we have a weak and incapable of creating

equitable conditions.

Not collect enough. Our oil revenues in 2011 accounted for 33.6 percent of the

total, not only that but every day growing share of oil revenues on public finances.

Informality and a tax system that encourages it. We have a system of pensions

and social security in only half of the Mexican population.

The supposed universal health coverage in contrast to OECD data, which indicatesthat 47% of health expenditures in Mexico is covered citizens, against 12% in theU.S.

Therefore, we have found in perverse incentives and public policies on income,spending and often contradictory.

We have not achieved the ideal of a democratic, economically efficient, socially just

and full freedom for the people but on the contrary, full of privilege.

Not respecting the rule of law. The Mexicans have many fears: social inequality,insecurity and new forms of crime.

In the field: drought, frost, floods, dismantling of the national industry,

indiscriminate opening.

Despite growing insecurity budgetary resources. A bigger budget, more insecurity,

more social spending, poorer.


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A system of law enforcement and justice administration corrupt, inefficient and

discretionary.

A very unfortunate prison system in crisis, corruption and very promiscuous.

The state does not regulate key markets. Continue with the privileges of the few,monopolies, oligopolies national and regional concentration of product generated.

The poorest decile holds 2% of GDP and the richest decile, holds 40% of GDP.

Credit to the private sector in Mexico represents only 24.6 percent of GDP, while in

Brazil is 57 percent, 86.3 percent in Chile and China 130 percent.

The Development Bank has a stake of less than 5 percent of GDP when Brazil

reached levels close to 30 percent.

In the telecommunications sector, the OECD notes that Mexicans lose 1.8 percentof GDP by the lack of competition.

We have regulatory agencies that are independent and not excessively intrusive

federal government.

We are in the country where nothing happens. As the world discussing debate

what to do in the future, we are stunned, watching what happens in the world, like

we were in the cinema watching a movie and eating popcorn.

It seems that we conform to the mediocre growth but limiting ourselves to have

sound public finances and we model the world and still presume.

The market dominates the inductive growth policies. If anything, we pale programs

languishing in the bureaucracy or for not believing in them.

Mexico can not take another lost decade. We are looking to pass the famous

"demographic bulge" without seeing results.

The question is: Where do you walk?

To consume is to have purchasing power. How can we induce the domestic marketas a lever for development if workers, laborers, employees have no buying power

because they have no permanent employment or have no disposable income,

attractive enough.

It needs growth, employment and productivity.


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You have to support entrepreneurs, government has to be a facilitator, not

numbing, a government sponsor as required by the Constitution.

Not only trying to promote consumption. This trend has led many countries,

particularly the United States and some Europeans have many serious problems.

We must return to basics: Work-Saving-Investment that are key to economic

activity.

It requires a growth strategy to address the economic instability that dominates

the landscape.

Breaking paradigms. The world is breaking paradigms and we follow the same

recipe.

This strategy I mentioned, to some extent has worked since the 2008 crisis and2009 to the United States with President Obama.

There should be incentives for spending-indeed, to increase productivity and

increasing real wages urgently increase the domestic market as mentioned above

and recognize that not all countries can be net exporters. It is clear that if there

are adjustments to deficits also have to adjust the surplus.

All that was mentioned and that Dr. Montemayor mentioned in the document that

is available to you. It is the great effort of thousands of economists debate in the

last two years we have discussed throughout the country.

But an inclusive and participatory discussion with all stakeholders, national and

regional, so the role of the College we have carried on their backs is precisely to

find that New College has become the center of the national economic debate.

These discussions were, say Tyrians and Trojans; Keynesian economists and

neoliberals, monetarist, chile, sweet butter, as it should be the National Association

of Economists, inclusive, participatory and pluralistic.

Today we present the result of hard work coordinated by Dr. Rogelio Montemayorand we are not outside it must be said when election-even though the College is

an apolitical organization and academic, can not be outside, because we are public

figures, the election debate to come in Mexico.

A watershed in the political and social life of the country we should take it and

participate, therefore, this paper, the results will be discussed today, they will


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improve and change and we will present it to the presidential candidates as a

result of the effort of all Mexicans, as an important element for them to take into

account, because citizens organized into guilds or chambers, is the fundamental

force of renewal of a country.

That's what you need to tell the candidates for President of the Republic, plus it isa solid proposal, discussed with vision of what Mexicans want for tomorrow.

We will present it to the presidential candidates and we will also make a

presentation to expect not only the document, but within the College to develop

their economic proposals they will present to society.

In the process we are, therefore, gentlemen and friends all held this meeting, I

welcome the anfitriona and gratitude to the state governor, I welcome you all are

here, students, academics, teachers, professors, economists, businessmen and is

held great event that will be very important.

Before closing, I say that just died President of the College of Economists of the

State of Mexico, a great friend, Carlos Salinas Gutierrez and if I may ask one

minute of silence for our friend.

Thank you very much.

Documents

Remarks by Cano Velez XIX Congreso Economist As Puebla 2012, Translation by Jorge Lera