REMEMBERING NINE OF THE WORST NATURAL DISASTERS. Part 3. (in terms of casualties) Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, Vienna, Virginia, USA AUGUST 1975 TYPHOON NINA AND BANQAIO DAM FAILURE:CHINA DEATH TOLL ESTIMATED AT 229,000. Fast Forward to 2015 GLOBAL GOAL: Implementing the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction From WCDRR LEARNING FROM GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES PART 1: TYPHOONS WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE TYPHOONS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION FLASH FLOODING (MUDFLOWS) LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) CAUSES OF RISK GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORIES EXAMPLE: SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN - - -A DISASTER LABORATORY FOR THE PHILIPPINES IN PAID OFF IN 2014 SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN DEVASTATED THE PHILIPPINES NOVEMBER 8-10, 2013 HAIYAN REACHED THE PHILIPPINES: FRIDAY, NOV. 8 HAIYAN: A SUPER TYPHOON WE PERPETUATE A FLAWED PREMISE: TYPHOON DISASTERS, WHICH OCCUR ANNUALLY, SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY NATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS ADOPT AND IMPLEMENT POLICIES THAT WILL LEAD TO THEIR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: IT USUALLY TAKES MULTIPLE DISASTERS BEFORE A STRICKEN NATION WILL ADOPT POLICIES TO MOVE TOWARDS TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE FACT: MOST UNAFFECTED NATIONS DONT EVEN TRY TO LEARN ANYTHING NEW FROM ANOTHER NATIONS DISASTERS AND CERTAINLY DONT CHANGE THEIR EXISTING POLICIES 2014 TYPHOON SEASON TYPHOON RAMMASUN Tuesday, July 15, 2014 TYPHOON RAMMASUN (a Thai term for God of Thunder) (AKA GLENDA locally) IMPACTED THE PHILIPPINES Wednesday, July 16, 2014 Rammasun (CAT 3) was the strongest storm to threaten the country since Haiyan, a Cat-5 "super typhoon" that wiped out nearly everything in its path when it crossed over the central Philippines in November, 2013. TYPHOON RAMMASUN JULY 14 Typhoon Rammasun (the 7 th storm of 2014 to hit the Philippines) arrived at Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre. RAMMASUN WAS HEADED FOR MANILLATHE FIRST DIRECT HIT ON THE CAPITOL IN FOUR YEARSON JULY 14, 2014 TYPHOON RAMMASUNS PREDICTED PATH THE PREMISE: BY NOW, THE PHILIPPINES SHOULD HAVE LEARNED THE LESSONS FROM PAST TYPHOONS DISASTER ON WHAT TO DO BEFORE, DURING, AND AFTER A TYPHOON STRIKES - - - (AND THEY DID!!) THE PEOPLE OF THE PHILIPPINES APPLIED THE VITAL LESSONS LEARNED 8 MONTHS EARLIER FROM HAIYAN, AND MANY OTHERS TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS At least 300,000 people had already fled from their homes in Albay province alone. However, many people were unwilling to evacuate. TIMELY ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS Schools were closed. International flights were cancelled. The army was placed on high alert. PHYSICAL DETAILS Typhoon Rammasun, with gusts of up to 160 kph (99 mph) and sustained winds of 130 kph (81 mph) near its centre, hit land over Rapu-Rapu island in the eastern province of Albay JULY 15,TYPHOON RAMMASUN WAS HEADED TOWARDS MANILLA GOOD NEWS ON JULY 16: The eye of Typhoon Rammasun made a late shift away from Manila, significantly reducing the damage to the capitol city of 17 million people. LESSON: THE TIMING OF ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS IS VITAL The people who know: 1) what to expect (e.g., high-velocity winds, rain, flash floods, landslides, and storm surge), 2) where and when it will happen, and 3) what they should (and should not) do to prepare will survive. JULY 14-16: TRACKING THE STORM IN MANILA OFFICE LESSON: TIMELY EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION SAVES LIVES The people who have timely early warning in conjunction with a community evacuation plan that facilitates getting out of harms way from the risks associated with storm surge, high winds, flooding, and landslides will survive. A MAJOR FACTOR: FORTUNATELY, GOOD COMMUNICATIONS HAD MOTIVATED OVER 400,000 PEOPLE TO EVACUATE AN EVACUATION CENTER: LEGAZPI CITY LESSON: EMERGENCY RESPONSE SAVES LIVES The Uncontrollable and Unthinkable events will always hinder the timing of emergency response operations. LESSON: EMERGENCY MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS SAVES LIVES Damaged hospitals and medical facilities combined with lack of clean drinking water, food, and medicine, and high levels of morbidity and mortality will quickly overrun the local communitys capacity for emergency health care. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Flooded streets Bridges washed out or impassible Sea wall damaged Airport closed; planes damaged on the runway Landslides STRANDED AT INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: MANILA Typhoon Rammasuns peak winds of 150 kilometers (93 miles) per hour and gusts up to 185 kph (115 mph) caused major socio-economic impacts SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS The Capitals functions were shut down for a time Downed trees Power outages 20,000+ Roofs ripped off Major roads blocked by debris MANILA BAY: TRYING TO REINFORCE FRAGILE HOUSES LESSON: WIND ENGINEERED BUILDINGS SAVE LIVES Buildings engineered to withstand the risks from a typhoons high velocity winds will maintain their function and protect occupants and users from death and injury. SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS Damage to crops (rice and corn) was estimated at around 668 million pesos, or about $15 million. Good News: According to the Mayor of Manila, no deaths. However, 77 deaths were ultimately reported in other locations. MANILA BAY: EXAMPLE OF DAMAGE TO FRAGILE HOUSES REPLACING LIQUID GAS IN HOME FLOODED STREETS: QUEZON CITY FLOODED STREETS: QUEZON CITY, GREATER MANILA LOCAL S AND R Search and Rescue and Relief Efforts Will be Hampered by Landslides and Damaged Road Systems LESSON: All Kinds of Things Will go Wrong During the Emergency Response Period When the Uncontrollable and Unthinkable Happen. DOWNED TREE: MANILA STRENGTHENING A DAMAGED SEA WALL DAMAGED BRIDGE LESSON: THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY ALWAYS PROVIDES AID The International Community provides millions to billions of dollars in relief to help pick up the pieces, but this strategy is not enough by itself to ensure disaster resilience. WEDNESDAY, JULY 2014 A weakened Rammasun heading toward China's Hainan Island and northern Vietnam. WARNING: It could strengthen again in the open water- - - (and it did!) FACT: TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE POLICIES BASED ON LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST TYPHOON LABORATORIES ARE NEEDED BY MANY NATIONS PILLARS OF TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE Preparedness Adoption and Implementation of a Modern Wind Engineering Building Code Time,y Early Warning and Evacuation Timely Emergency Response (including Emergency Medical Services) Cost-Effective Recovery COMMUNITIES COMMUNITIES DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS TYPHOON HAZARDS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION TYPHOON RISK RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION FORECASTS/SCENARIOS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS THE CHALLENGE: POLICY CHANGES: CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE KINDS OF TURNING POINTS NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS TYPHOON RESILIENCE CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE USING EDUCATIONAL SURGES CONTAINING THE PAST AND PRESENT LESSONS TO FOSTER AND ACCELERATE THE CREATION OF TURNING POINTS CREATING TURNING POINTS FOR TYPHOON DISASTER RESILIENCE INTEGRATION OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL SOLUTIONS WITH POLITICAL SOLUTIONS FOR POLICIES ON PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, EARLY WARNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY