RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: THE CASE OF MOROCCO (Simulation 2010-2040) PROJECT: FEM34-02 Co-directors: Prof. A

RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE

MEDITERRANEAN: THE CASE OF MOROCCO (Simulation 2010-2040)

PROJECT: FEM34-02

Co-directors: Prof. A. Lorca & Prof. de Arce

RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: MOROCCO AND THE MEDITERRANEAN SOLAR PLAN

RESEARCH TEAM:

Prof. Idriss El Abbassi (Université Mohamed V)Prof. Abdelhamid El Bouhadi (Université Mohamed V)Prof. Rafael de Arce (UAM – AGREEM)Prof. Gonzalo Escribano (UNED)Mr. AyacheKhellaf(Université Mohamed V)Prof. Alejandro Lorca (UAM – AGREEM)Prof. Ramón Mahia (UAM – AGREEM)Prof. Jose María Marín (UNED)Prof. Eva Medina (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)Prof. Lahcen Oulhaj (Université Mohamed V)Prof. Said Tounsi (Université Mohamed V)


Project Narrative Renewable Energies (RES) have become an identity sign of EU’s Energy Policy.

The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) has launched the Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) to support RES deployment in the region.

Morocco is probably on of the best positioned country to implement the Mediterranean Solar Plan.

The MSP would help Morocco to supply its domestic electricity markets with RES, and may be to export a surplus benefiting from the new green energy trade.


Within this regional and national context, the main objective of this project is to analyze the

economic effects of building Concentrated Solar Plants (CSP), Photovoltaic (PV) and Wind farms (WP) installation in Morocco

during the next 30 years.

Concerned Technologies in the MSP

SI

MULATION

SCHEMA


RES ElectricityMix in Morocco (Baseline,MW)

CSP(PARAB. THROUGH) WIND POWER

PHOTOVOLTAIC TOTAL

2010 20 284 13 317

2012 20 1,192 20 1,232

2015 225 1,595 50 1,870

2020 416 2,000 80 2,496

2030 1,299 3,390 128 4,816

2040 2,893 5,777 205 8,875

Parabolic Through

Tower Plant

Photovoltaic

Windmills

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2006 2007 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

C t Storage

C t Power Block

C t Solar Field

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000 2006 2007 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Storage

Tower

Power block

Solar Field

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

4,500.0

5,000.0

2009 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Bateries/Storage

PV modules

BOS

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Tower

Power block

Electric Installation

Evolution of CostsbyTechnology

Methodology I: Production Effect

“SECTORIZED” INVESTMENT / BUSINESS PLAN

DIRECT EF. INDUCED DEMAND

TOTAL EFFECT

INDUCED DEMAND (DIRECT + INDIRECT)

DISAGGREGATION BY SECTOR

P' = (I-A)-1D

Δ VALUE ADDED

DOMESTIC / INTERNATIONAL COEFFICIENTS

I-O FINAL DEMAND INCREASE

=

=

Δ EMPLOYMENT

Value added Coefficient Employment Coefficient

TIME DECOMPOSITION

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY TIME

SERIES MODELS

t

tt COE

GOS Coef_GOS

Methodology II: Induced Demand Effect

PRODUCTION EFFECT EMPLOYMENT INCREASE

DIRECT EF. INDUCED DEMAND

TOTAL EF.

INDUCED DEMAND (DIRECT + INDIRECT)

DETAIL BY CONSUMPTION

STANDARD BASKET

P' = (I-A)-1D

Δ VALUE ADDED

SALARIES

(+) NEW YIELD(-) TAXES (-) SAVES

Δ CONSUMPTION YIELD

=

=

Δ EMPLOYMENT

Value added Coefficient Employment Coefficient


Scenarios of Simulation and Main ResultsPROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF

IMPORTED COMPONENTSNO YES

EXPORTING

NO BASELINE “SMART”

20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY “EXPORTS”“SMART

EXPORTS”

INCREASING THE INSTALLED

CAPACITY IN RENEWABLES

TO EXPORT WITH...

...CSP PLANTS CSP EXPORTS -

...PV PLANTS PV EXPORTS -

...WIND FARMS

WF EXPORTS -


Scenarios of Simulation and Main ResultsPROGRESSIVE REDUCTION OF

IMPORTED COMPONENTSNO YES

EXPORTING

NOBASELINE

+1.17% GDP+265,730 Empl

“SMART”+1.59% GDP

+401,671 Empl.

20% OF RENEWABLE ENERGY“EXPORTS”+1.41% GDP

+318,876 Empl.

“SMART EXPORTS”

+1.91% GDP+482,005 Empl.

INCREASING THE INSTALLED

CAPACITY IN RENEWABLES

TO EXPORT WITH...

...CSP PLANTS+1.27% GDP

+289,369 Mill.-

...PV PLANTS+1.24% GDP

+282,631 Empl.-

...WIND FARMS

+1.6% GDP+415,032 Empl.

-


TOTAL INVESTMENT BY SCENARIO (,000 EUROS)

2010 2020 2030 2040

BASELINE SCENARIO 407,970 1,043,078 3,573,795 5,950,772

EXPORTS OF 20% SURPLUS 407,970 1,251,693 4,288,554 7,140,926CSP 407,970 1,416,230 4,834,630 8,041,514PV 407,970 1,826,916 3,876,471 7,678,002WIND 407,970 1,288,267 2,268,991 5,194,873

FINAL REMARKS

RES deployment entails a significant direct economic impact for Morocco in terms of GDP and employment .

Additionally, preliminary results of a GEM shows that the increase in energy capacity could increase potential growth, rising real GDP growth between 0.1%-0.4%, lowering consumption and exporting prices and noticeable increasing labor income and public savings and revenues.

Comparing technologies, wind farms seems the tech alternative that produces more benefits in terms of GDP and employment growth is the installation of wind farms.

Technology import dependency limits the positive impact of RES deployment.


SOME ADITIONAL MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS

Taking into account the General Equilibrium Model of the “Haut Commisariat du Plan de Maroc”:

Real GDP growth could be higher by 0.4% in the first years to 0.1% in the end would mean that the potential growth will increase with the increase in energy capacity.

Increase of labor income which will be higher by 1.71%.

Government savings which will increase by 3.8%.

Total government revenue will be higher by 0.64%

Documents

RENEWABLE ENERGIES AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEDITERRANEAN: THE CASE OF MOROCCO (Simulation 2010-2040) PROJECT: FEM34-02 Co-directors: Prof. A