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Renewable Energy in TransportRenewable Energy in Transport
Amela AjanovicAmela Ajanovic
Energy Energy EconomicsEconomics Group (EEG) Group (EEG) at at thethe Institute of Power Systems and Energy Institute of Power Systems and Energy EconomicsEconomicsVienna University of TechnologyVienna University of [email protected]@eeg.tuwien.ac.at
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
Content
• Introduction• State of the art of biofuels• Potentials of biofuels• Biofuels: Environmental impacts & costs• Hydrogen from RES: Environmental impacts
& costs• Conclusions
Objective
Core objectives:
• to analyse the prospects of biofuels and hydrogen from RES from economic and ecological points-of-view• to identify the potentials of a sustainable use of biofuels• to discuss the future prospects of biofuels and hydrogen
Motivation
The list of objectives for implementation of biofuel policies:
• security of energy supply; • environmental improvement, including mitigation of
climate change; • creation of new outlets or demand for agricultural
products;• stimulating regional development and contributing to
enhanced economic activity
A survey on biofuels
Classi-fication
Feedstock Biodiesel Ethanol FT-Diesel
Bio-DME
Bio-SNG
1st Oil crops Rapeseed x Sunflower x Sugar crops Sugar beet x Sugar cane x Starch crops Wheat x Maize x Triticale x Sweet sorghum x Organic waste Used oils/fats x Residues from
agriculture Digestible x x
2nd Lignocellulosic crops
Woody plants x x x x
Herbaceous plants
x x x x
Residues from agriculture
Non-digestible (straw)
x x x x
Residues from forestry
x x x x
Residues from wood industry
x x x x
Recent Trends in Ethanol Production
Biofuels production is rising rapidly in many parts of the world in response to higher oil price, which are making ethanol more competitive, especially where reinforced by government incentives and rules on fuel specification.
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mili
on li
tres
Brazil USA Canada China India EU Other
Quelle: WEO 2006, Fo. Licht, 2007
Recent Trends in Biodiesel Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mto
e
EU US Other
Quelle: WEO 2006, Fo. Licht, 2007
Biodiesel in EU
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
German
yFranc
eIta
lyAus
triaPort
ugal
Spain
Belgium UK
Greece
The Neth
erland
sDen
markPola
ndSwed
en
Czech
Rep.
Slovakia
Finlan
dRom
ania
Lithu
aniaSlove
niaBulg
aria
Latvi
aHun
garyIre
land
CyprusMalt
aEsto
nia
Luxe
mburg
'000
tonn
es
Biodiesel production by country, 2007
Share of biofuels in scenarios to 2030
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
World USA EU Brazil
2004 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
Share of biofuels in road-transport fuel consumption in energy terms
Quelle: WEO, 2006
Land requirements for biofuels production
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
US and Canada
EU
Developing Asia
Latin America
World
% arable land2005 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
Quelle: WEO, 2006
Biofuels generation potential
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9A
TB
EB
G CY
CZ
DK
EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LA LT LU MT NL
PL
PT
RO SK SI
ES
SE
UKRES
(Dom
estic
) Bio
fuel
gen
erat
ion
pote
ntia
l [M
toe]
Additional long term (2030) potentialAchieved potential 2005
Biofuels generation potential
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
AT
BE BG CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LA LT LU MT NL
PL
PT
RO SK SI
ES SE UK
EU
27
RES
-T -
Bio
fuel
gene
ratio
npo
tent
ial
[% o
f gro
sstr
ansp
ortf
ueld
eman
d]
RES share 2005
RES long term (2030) potential - share on 2030 demand (baseline case)
RES long term (2030) potential - share on 2030 demand (energy efficiency case)
The Environmental Impact of Biofuels
The net impact on greenhouse-gas emissions of replacing conventional fuels with biofuels depends on several factors. These include:
• type of crop,• the amount and type of energy embedded in the fertilizer used
to grow the crop and in the water used, • emissions from fertilizer production, • the resulting crop yield, • the energy used in gathering and transporting the feedstock to
the biorafinery, • alternative land uses, and • the energy intensity of the conversion process.
The energy balance is dependent on the specific pathway, particularly with regards to the fate of by-products.
Well-to-Wheels Pathways
WTW
WTT TTW
+
Feedstock Fuels Powertrain
Ethanol WTW total energy
DDGS - Distillers Dried Grains with SolublesCHP - Combined heat and power AF – Annimal food
0100200300400500600700
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to fod
der
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to he
at
Whe
at, co
nv N
G boile
r,DDGS as
AF
Whe
at, co
nv N
G boile
r,DDGS as
fuel
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
AF
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
fuel
W W
ood
F Woo
dW
heat
straw
Conve
ntion
al ga
solin
eWTW
tota
l ene
rgy
(MJ/
100
km)
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Ethanol WTW fossil energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to fod
der
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to he
at
Whe
at, co
nv N
G boile
r,DDGS as
AF
Whe
at, co
nv N
G boile
r,DDGS as
fuel
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
AF
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
fuel
W W
ood
F Woo
dW
heat
straw
Conve
ntion
al ga
solin
eW
TW fo
ssil
ener
gy (M
J/10
0 km
)
23%
43%
73%
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Biodiesel WTW total energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
RME: gly. aschemical
RME: gly. asanimal feed
SME:gly. aschemical
SME:gly. asanimal feed
Conventionaldiesel
WTW
tota
l ene
rgy
(MJ/
100
km)
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Biodiesel WTW fossil energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
RME: gly. aschemical
RME: gly. asanimal feed
SME:gly. aschemical
SME:gly. asanimal feed
Conventionaldiesel
WTW
foss
il en
ergy
(MJ/
100
km)
64%
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Bioethanol WTW GHG balance
020406080
100120140160180
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to fod
der
Sugar
beet,
pulp
to he
at
Whe
at, co
nv N
G boile
r,DDGS as
AF
Wheat,
conv
NG bo
iler,D
DGS as fu
el
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
AF
Whe
at, N
G GT+C
HP;DDGS as
fuel
W Woo
dF W
ood
Whe
at str
aw
Conve
ntion
al ga
solin
e
GH
G g
CO
2eq/
km 30% - 65%
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Biodiesel WTW GHG balance
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
RME: gly. aschemical
RME: gly. asanimal feed
SME:gly. aschemical
SME:gly. asanimal feed
Conventionaldiesel
GH
G g
CO
2/km
53%
Quelle: WTW, 2007
Bioethanol Production Costs(incl. subsidies)
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
2030 Reference Scenario
2005
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
2030 Reference Scenario
2005
2030 Alternative Policy Scenario
2030 Reference Scenario
2005
dollars (2005) per litre of gasoline equivalent
Feedstock (net) Chemicals and energy Operating and maintenance Capital
Brazil
USA
EU
Quelle: WEO, 2006
Biodiesel Production Costs(incl. subsidies)
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
2030 Alternative PolicyScenario
2030 Reference Scenario
2005
2030 Alternative PolicyScenario
2030 Reference Scenario
2005
dollar (2005) per litre of diesel equivalent
Feedstock (net) Chemicals and energy Operating and maintenance Capital
USA
EU
Quelle: WEO, 2006
Hydrogen supply chain
H2-storage
Primary energy
Wasserstofferzeugung
H2-Handling
H2-Transport
Stationary applications
Mobile applications
H2-Production
Cost of H2-RES supply chain
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
GH Hydropower (Large)
GH Hydropower (Small)
GH Wind power
GH Photovoltaic
GH Biomass
GH Biogas
GH Natural gas
GH Natural gas with CO2-capture
Costs of hydrogen (Euro/kWh)
Production Handling Transport Storage Refuelling
H2-RES
Quelle: Öko-Wasserstoff, 2006
Cost of energy services-mobility from H2-RES
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
FC LDV GH Hydropower (Big)
ICE LDV LH Hydropower
FC LDV GH Hydropower (Small)
FC LDV GH Wind power
FC LDV GH Photovoltaic
FC LDV GH Biomass
FC LDV GH Biogas
FC LDV GH Natural Gas
FC LDV GH Natural Gas with CO2-capture
ICE LDV GH Wind power
ICE LDV Diesel
ICE LDV Biodiesel
E-Car Hydropower
Travel costs per kilometre (Euro/km)
Fuel Cost Capital Cost
Quelle: Öko-Wasserstoff, 2006
Scenarios for H2-RES: Mobile applications
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
Tota
l tra
nspo
rt co
sts
(€/k
m)
FC PR=10%FC PR=20%FC PR=30%ICE-H2 PR=10%ICE-H2 PR=20%ICE-H2 PR=30%ICE-Diesel-2 €ICE Diesel price cons tant
FC
ICE-H2
ICE-Diesel
Quelle: Öko-Wasserstoff, 2006
WTW energy balance for H2-RES
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5
FC LDV GH Hydropower (large)
ICE LDV LH Hydropower (large)
FC LDV GH Hydropower (small)
FC LDV GH PV
FC LDV GH Wind
FC LDV GH Biomass
FC LDV GH Biogas
ICE LDV Diesel
kWh/km
Quelle: Öko-Wasserstoff, 2006
WTW GHG balance for H2-RES
0 50 100 150 200 250
FC LDV GH Hydropower (large)
ICE LDV LH Hydropower (large)
FC LDV GH Hydropower (small)
FC LDV GH PV
FC LDV GH Wind
FC LDV GH Biomass
FC LDV GH Biogas
ICE LDV Diesel
g CO2eq./km
Quelle: Öko-Wasserstoff, 2006
Conclusions - Biofuels
The fossil energy and GHG savings of conventionally produced biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel are critically dependent on manufacturing processes and use of by-products.
The GHG balance is particularly uncertain because of nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture.
Future biofuels costs depend on land availability for biofuels crops production, agricultural productivity and conversion efficiency over time, but also on the political will to support biofuels for transport until they become competitive with conventional fuels.
Conclusions – Hydrogen from RES
Currently, from an economic point-of-view there is no argument for using renewable energy via the detour over hydrogen compared to the direct use of renewable energy.
A rapid increase of fuel cell vehicles with hydrogen on the market is not expected in the near future, because the hydrogen infrastructure is still not available and the costs of the fuel cells are still very high.
From a pure economic point-of-view hydrogen from RES could become attractive for transport at the earliest by about 2035.
Thank you for attention!
