Report of the Planning Coordination Committee

December 2006 WECC BOD MeetingCabo Del Sol, Los Cabos

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WECC Probabilistic Based Reliability Criteria (PBRC) Members can apply for adjustment in the performance requirements

with respect to the WECC Disturbance Performance Table WECC BOD approved a Seven Step Process describing the information

necessary to request a performance level adjustment (Dec 2004) Adjustments to Category D performance must not result in

cascading unless Estimated MTBF is greater than 300 years, or Initiating disturbances and corresponding impacts are confined to either

a radial system or a local network. Four adjustments from level C to level D performance have been

approved to date These have been for circuits that share a common right-of-way for a

portion of their length. NERC treats loss of circuits on separate structures as Category D

Extreme Event (TPL-004)

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Category Upgrade of North Gila 2nd Line APS proposes to build a

second 117 mile 500 kV transmission line in parallel with the existing Hassayampa – North Gila line in the same transmission corridor.

While such a line meets the required level C performance, the voltage dip performance is marginal. To mitigate the risk of the

potential future derates in the event modest system changes, APS selected to apply for a performance category adjustment.

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Expected System Performance

Double line outage resulted in voltage dip of 29.5% (level C limit is 30%) With no dips > 20% lasting longer than 40 cycles No frequency dip violations

MTBF calculation performed using analytic method from Kangley-Echo Lake analysis with outage statistics from Palo Verde-Westwing and Navajo-Westwing corridors.

APS calculated a MTBF of 21 to 2,700 years compared to a PBRC requirement of 33 years. If the contribution from terminal equipment related outages is omitted,

the MTBF rises to 42 years. Using robust line design features, the performance is expected to be on

the high end of the range. Most design features of the proposed line are the same or nearly

identical to Palo Verde – Westwing 500 lines which have been granted a performance adjustment.

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PCC Recommendation

PCC Recommends Board approval of Arizona Public Service Company’s (APS) request for a change from Category C to Category D with no cascading for the North Gila parallel line.

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Transmission Outage Database

Transmission Reliability Database Task Force (TRDTF) has developed a process and the supporting documentation to annually gather forced outage data on 200 kV and higher transmission facilities Will facilitate the probabilistic planning the work of RPEWG in

assessing performance category upgrades under the PBRC. The database will allow the RPEWG to monitor facility outage

data and recommend changes in the required performance category for individual facilities as necessary.

An annual report on forced outage performance would be generated.

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Database Implementation

Data would be collected once a year in the first quarter of the year. Begin data collect data with 2006 and without gathering earlier outage info.

The incremental burden on members to report this information will be modest as most members collect these data in varying formats for their own internal uses.

DOE has indicated its desire to begin collecting transmission outage data as part of its EIA data gathering process. WECC is participating in the NERC task force formed to address the DOE needs.

Will ensure that the WECC data collection is sufficient to meet potential NERC requirements.

To ensure consistency and quality of the information received, the TRDTF has prepared a detailed description for data reporting and will be conduction a workshop.

Confidentiality proposal has been prepared and will be submitted to the Board in April.

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PCC and OC Recommendation

PCC and OC recommend Board approval of the Transmission Reliability Database Task Force recommendation of a process for a WECC-Wide Common Outage Database and to charge WECC staff to collect the data.

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Other Items Approved By PCC

Loads and Resources Data Confidentiality (Board Consent Agenda)

Generation Testing Model Validation Implementation Plan Plan to address the backlog generators

awaiting their 5 year re-test following the Board approval of the new testing policy

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Project Advancement in Regional Planning or Path Rating Processes Initiating Regional Planning or Path Rating

Processes BC to Northern California Transmission Project –

PG&E Path 27 Upgrade – LADWP Ely Transmission Project - SPPC Path 51 Redefinition – SRP

Path 46 (East of River) Near Term Rating Increase Progressed through Phase 2 and into Phase 3

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Information Items – Modeling Improvements WECC Dynamic Modeling Procedure

Improve the quality of the WECC Master Dynamic Data File Assist WECC staff in managing submittals of models Clarify modeling procedure for WECC members Improve interaction with program developers

Identify need for new models and improvement to existing models Identify and report compatibility and conversion issues

Electronic Data Base System (EDBS) SRWG has evaluated an EDBS to address the remaining unresolved base case

data preparation process issues. Would utilize automated features for data error checks and coordination. SRWG estimates EDBS may save conservatively 50% or more of the time required to

prepare base cases once implemented. TSS established a Task Force to evaluate the proposal and the possibility for

coordination with the West-Wide System Model development Modeling Workshop (Held in Nov)

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Loads and Resources

Resource Adequacy Framework White Paper Surveys the landscape of potential resource adequacy

frameworks that could be applied in the Western Interconnection.

Provides background on specific WECC and PCC goals Summarizes frameworks that are currently in place or proposed

by others within the West Summarizes NERC and other regional council approaches Discusses frameworks that could be applied by WECC to

implement the Board and PCC goals Identifies implementation challenges and a proposed timetable

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Resource Adequacy Guideline Development Timeline

2006 2010

2007 PSA

2008 PSA

2009 PSA

2010 PSA

2006 2010

2007 PSA

2008 PSA

2009 PSA

2010 PSA

CAPACITY

2007 2008 2009

Understand uncertainties and models for application with Resource Adequacy framework

Same as 2008 PSA unless new model ready

New model with full application of uncertainties into resource adequacy framework

Building Block Reserve Margin

Better regional integration

Apply Resource Adequacy Framework (metric & target)

Probablistic integration of energy and capacity

ENERGY

2007 2008 2009

Determinstic integration of energy and capacity using Promod or other applicable model

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2007 Power Supply Assessment and the L&R Data Collection Cycle PSA development schedule currently begins in the Fall and results

in a recommendation to the July Board meeting. Data collection occurs Nov-Jan

NERC cycles for semiannual supply assessments Summer assessment information in March Winter assessment information in September

Current cycles have the NERC summer assessment being issued while the PSA is being developed PSA issued 4-6 weeks later may not be consistent

Since the PSA is intended to focus primarily on the upcoming season, the LRS is considering the merits of moving the PSA cycle by one quarter later. This would result in the PSA being reviewed by the PCC in October and approved by the Board in December.

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Questions?

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Current LRS Work Plan

Capacity Planning Reserve Margin Assessment More Sophisticated Analysis 2007-8 Probabilistic Based Assessment 2009 at the earliest

Requires Major Changes To Methodology Data Requirement Models

Will Require Consultants and Additional WECC Staff To Achieve Qualified and Available Personnel/Consultants May be Hard To Find

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Accelerated LRS Work Plan

Probabilistic Planning Reserve Margin Assessment More Sophisticated Analysis 2007 Probabilistic Based Assessment 2008 At The Earliest

Must have Additional Consultants To Achieve Issue Is Obtaining Qualified and Available Personnel

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Current LRS Work Plan – More Detail

2006

Capacity

Energy

Capacity

Energy

Approval

1. Modify L&R data request as appropriate2. Replace PSDC with new RA framework3. PSA: SAM or other appropriate model

1. Develop RA framework including preliminaary numeric values and present to PCC (Mar/Jun 07)2. PCC Forward to BOD for approval3. WECC BOD approval mid 2007

20082007

1. Review models (e.g., Promod) and new modeling approaches for deterministic integation of energy & capacity2. PSA: Integrate PNW and other sub-regions analysis

CALENDAR YEARS

1. Examine NERC SISR2. Evaluate how regions rely on each other3. PSA: Apply better regional integration into PSA

1. Augment PSDC with a building block reserve margin2. PSA: SAM assessment

2007PSA

2008PSA

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Current LRS Work Plan – Continued

2006

Capacity

Energy

Approval

Capacity

Energy

Approval

2007 2008

2010PSA

1. Update metric or guidelines presented to PCC mid 20082. If appropriate, PCC forward to BOD for approval3. WECC BOD approval mid 2008

1. Understand Uncertainties (e.g., How to translate into metric and how to model and assess)2. Model assessment for evaluation that captures uncertainties3. Implement new L&R data request as appropriate for new model4. PSA: Implement into 2010 PSA

1. Implement new L&R data request as appropriate2. PSA: For new model implement into 2010 PSA

2009PSA

1. Update metric or guidelines presented to PCC mid 20082. If appropriate, PCC forward to BOD for approval3. WECC BOD approval mid 2008

1. Review model status, is it ready to use?2. Modify L&R data request as appropriate for new model (if ready)3. PSA: Integrated model if ready to use, otherwise same as 2008 PSA

1. Understand uncertainty application into probabilistic assessment2. Review model status, is it ready to used in 2008?3. Modify L&R data request as apropriate for new model (if ready)4. PSA: SAM assessmetn unless new model ready

2009

Accelerated Work Plan Would Merge 2008-2010 Into Two Years