Principles of Macroeconomics

Submitted to: Mr. Zia Abbas Rizvi

Project Reporton

International TradeTrade deficit- A case of Pakistan

Prepared by

Ghulam Mustafa Memon (10107) Ahmed Mujtaba (6775)

Abdul Qayoom Shah (10150) Madeha Malik (10714)

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Abstract

In most countries, International trade represents a significant share of gross domestic product  (GDP). While international trade has been present throughout much of history, its economic, social, and political importance has been on the rise in recent centuries. Industrialization, advanced transportation, globalization, multinational corporations, and outsourcing are all having a major impact on the international trade system. Increasing international trade is crucial to the continuance of globalization. International trade is a major source of economic revenue for any nation that is considered a world power. Without international trade, nations would be limited to the goods and services produced within their own borders. In this report we talk about a case of Pakistan imports and exports and a significant change in trade deficit.

Pakistan's trade performance recorded a significant improvement during FY09. Country's trade deficit recorded a large 18.5 percent contraction during FY09, breaking from the rising trend witnessed since FY03. This was due to a 12.9 percent fall in imports during FY09 which outpaced the impact of 6.7 percent fall in exports during this period.

In the wake of the global recession and a fall in international commodity prices, some slowdown in country's import and export growth was expected during FY09. The impact of these developments, however, was intensified by a broad range of domestic factors -especially the energy crisis that led to a greater than expected fall in both exports and imports during this period. Resultantly, exports and imports both recorded a broad based decline during FY09.

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Review of Literature

The global situation:

The global financial crises has severely hurt global aggregate demand, decimated liquidity in the international capital markets, and reduced investor confidence. Consequently, world trade, investment and industrial production fell sharply from the last quarter of 2008. These developments adversely impacted social indicators globally, as unemployment is on rise and poverty is likely to increase in developing economies. Indeed, falling demand for emerging economies exports directly translated into slowing GDP growth. This impact was heightened by the uncertainty (and increasing risk aversion) in international credit markets. The countries with substantial macroeconomic imbalances were particularly badly hit, as the access to international capital flows was abruptly curtailed, and their governments were often not in a position to initiate counter-cyclical fiscal or monetary policies.

Current Scenario of Pakistan

According to the Statistics Division, in September 2009, exports rose 2.62 per cent to $1.52 billion and imports fell 4.31 per cent to $2.42 billion over previous month. A reduced trade deficit is a very encouraging sign for the country which is struggling to safeguard its economy from external shocks as a result of current account deficit, a factor that has disturbed the country’s financial balance sheet for the last couple of years.

The FBS data show that trade deficit during September 2009 narrowed by 55.9 per cent over September 2008. In the first quarter (July-September) of fiscal year 2009-10, the trade deficit dropped by 44.74 per cent (or $2.50 billion) to $3.09 billion compared to $5.59 billion in the corresponding period of last year. Imports stood at $7.58 billion during the period under review while exports totaled $4.49 billion. During the same period of last fiscal, imports stood at $10.81 billion and exports $5.21 billion. That depicted a 29.85 per cent decline in imports and 13.86 per cent fall in exports.

During FY09, exports declined by 6.0 percent against commendable increase of 18.2 percent in the previous year. A large part of this fall stemmed from contraction in textile exports amid shrinking external demand due to global crises and severe domestic power shortages. However, strong increase in rice and cement exports moderated the overall fall in exports during the period. The increase in the former was principally driven by bumper rice crop while the increase in latter mainly stemmed from strong demand from Middle East and some African countries. More than

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two-third of the 10.5 percent contraction in imports during FY09, on the other hand, was due to lower petroleum group, telecom group and raw cotton imports. Fall in petroleum group, in turn, was largely (95 percent) caused by fall in oil prices while lower telecom group imports mainly owed to imposition of custom duty on cellular phones and increase in GST on the telecom sector. Likewise, lower raw cotton imports largely reflected better domestic cotton crop and lower domestic demand.

In Nov-June FY09, steep fall in import prices, subsiding aggregate demand pressures and significant exchange rate depreciation all contributed to a sustained contraction in imports. This fall in imports, supported by strong growth in remittances, allowed a large contraction in the current account deficit. In fact, the improvement in current account deficit would have been even higher, were it not for a fall in foreign exchange earnings, and had there not been a fall in exports during the period. Fall in exports, in turn, probably owed substantially to the severe power shortages and unstable security situation, which further aggravated the impact of slowing demand in Pakistan‘s major export markets.

The above figure depicts the historical perspective which portrays the effect of imports and exports on current account deficit for last 19 years including GDP growth rate and oil prices.

Pakistan has little to gain from the system because of handful of its exportable products, resultant of lack of diversification in export destinations as well as export items offered. Accordingly Pakistan is facing a persistent trade deficit. It has eroded country’s forex reserves and also put pressure on the value of currency. Pakistan, on account of its increasing trade imbalances, is unable to invest in hi-tech machinery and equipment to adhere to demanded standards of products under preferential trade agreements already signed and to be signed with industrially rich countries and also countries in South and South East Asia. Besides above high cost and delays from inefficient practices at Customs, ports and transportation agencies prevent the

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desired/envisaged enhancement in export volume.

Challenges for our exports

The principle reason for growing disconnect between the evolving global market structure and our export performance is the erosion of the competitiveness of Pakistan’s traditional exports in general and the country’s weakness in diversifying its product and market mix. The challenges faced by Pakistan exports include:

-Infrastructure deficit, particularly in energy.-Poor innovation and technological infrastructure.-Low labor productivity.-Low levels of manufacturing value addition.-Little Foreign Direct Investment in manufacturing and exportable sectors.-Anti-export bias in taxation. -Increasing costs of exports as compared to imports.-Lack of product and geographical diversification in exports.- Absence of economies of scale in the production processes, especially in the Small and Medium Enterprise sector which accounts for a vast majority of the enterprises in the country.

Our ImportsImports registered a negative growth of 1.5 percent in July-February 2009. The imports stood at $ 23.8 billion as against $ 24.1 billion in the comparable period of last year. The growth in imports reflects impact of substantial fall in oil and food imports in monetary terms and these two items were responsible for 80 percent of additional imports bill last year. Import compression measures coupled with massive fall in international oil prices have started paying dividends and imports witnessed marked slowdown during the last two months.

The monthly import bill on account of petroleum has lost one-third of its value. The additional import bill during the period July-February 2008-09 on account of petroleum and wheat was just above the $1.0 billion. This massive addition is neutralized by massive negative contributions from non-food and non-oil imports. Other positive contributors to additional import bill are power generating machines which have added $435.2 million, agricultural chemicals other than fertilizer ($213.4 million), and electrical machines & appliances ($92 million). The non-food and non-oil imports showed negative growth of 7.8 percent which implies on drastic import compression.

The unit value of import of crude oil is still depicting 45 percent increase in the period July-February 2008-09. The unit value of soya been and palm oil are also showing massive increases of 62.9% and 22.8%, respectively in this period. This clearly reflects the time lag involved in translating the benefit of lowering of prices in the international market into the import bill. The

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consumer durables, transport group and telecom sectors are responding positively to the import compression measures. The current growth in imports is coming from only a narrow range of products and corrective measures are needed accordingly in these items.

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Introduction

Pakistan has bilateral and multilateral trade agreements with many nations and international organizations. Pakistan’s exports are highly concentrated by commodity; currently the majority of exports originate in the textiles and apparels sectors. The bulk of Pakistan’s trade is with countries outside of South Asia. For example, textile exports are concentrated in China, Bangladesh and Hong Kong. Leather exports are concentrated in Hong Kong, Italy and Republic of South Korea. Vegetables and fruits are mainly exported to the United Arab Emirates, India, Japan and Sri Lanka. Fish and fish products are exported to China, Japan, UK and USA, while surgical instruments are largely destined for Germany and the USA. This pattern reflects in part Pakistan’s specialization in products that are also exported by its neighbors. Recent analysis by the World Bank indicates the potential for greater trade with India, notably in light manufactured products (for example bicycle components and fans).

Fluctuating world demand for its exports, domestic political uncertainty, and the impact of occasional droughts on its agricultural production have all contributed to variability in Pakistan's trade deficit. By looking at trade performance of Pakistan for the year 2008-09, we have witnessed unprecedented economic downturn especially in our major markets of export i.e. USA & EU. Consumption decreased in the developed world and the global trade shrank by 9%. Global recession adversely affected exporting countries and Pakistan is no exception to it. Exports from Pakistan declined to US$ 17.8 billion as compared to previous year’s exports of US$ 19.1 billion. Imports also witnessed a relative decline and fell by 13% as Pakistan’s imports during 2008-09 stood at US $ 34.9 billion as compared to US $ 40.4 billion in 2007-08.

During 2008-9, the export of Textiles, which account for around 54% of Pakistan’s total exports, dropped from US$ 10.6 billion to US$ 9.6 billion. The major losers in this regard were Readymade Garments, which dropped by 21.7%, Cotton Yarn, which dropped by 15%, Bed linen, which dropped by 10.2%, Art Silk & Synthetic Textiles, which dropped by 22.1% and Cotton Fabric by 4.0%. The exports of finished leather and leather manufacturers dropped from US$ 1.1 billion to US$ 0.8 billion registering a drop 24.5%. The Rice exports have registered an impressive growth from US$ 1.84 billion to US$ 1.99 with an increase of 8.2%. Engineering goods also registered an increase of 26.1% from US$ 211.3 to US$ 266.4 million. In this regard, the major contributors have been the specialized machinery, transport equipment, electric fans etc. The export of Jewelry also rose from US$ 213.4 million to US$ 288.4 million, registering an increase of 35%.

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The dismal performance of textile exports can be attributed, beside their structural issues, to rising cost of production owing to increase in domestic cotton prices and stifling power shortages. In addition, the deteriorating law and order situation in the country also resulted in reported diversion of export orders to other countries. Poor quality of cotton on account of contaminated cotton issue has also adversely affected the export of spinning industry.

Furthermore, textile exports appear to have also suffered from the slowdown in the US economy that has been the largest destination for Pakistani exports during the last few years. In addition, Pakistan also faced tough competition from China, India, Bangladesh and Turkey in the EU market for textile apparel. In the case of bed wear exports; its exports to EU market are rising after the reduction of anti-dumping duty on this category from the previous level of 13.1 percent to 5.8 percent.

Taking a long term view of Pakistan’s export performance over the last ten years, Pakistan’s share in the global market, according to WTO data, has declined by more than 1/3 to 0.13% in 2009 from 0.21 % in 1999.

During the last few decades, the global trade has undergone a major structural change as far as the product composition and geography of trade is concerned. There has been an explosion of non textile manufactured exports at the global level. Whereas, the share of non-textile manufactured in Pakistan’s exports has gone down from an already low figure of US $ 5.83 billion (25.08%) in 2007-08 to US $ 3.12 billion in 2008-09 (17.32 %). At the same time, our competitor economies, particularly in Asia, have significantly enhanced their share in non-textile manufactured. As far as the Textile and Clothing sectors are concerned, the rate of growth in Clothing is much higher than Textiles in the international market. Whereas, Pakistan, managing to keep its market share in Textiles to an extent, has been slow in benefiting from the expansion in higher value Clothing sector.

The world faces an unprecedented energy crisis, record high prices of agricultural commodities, and global competitive markets for manufactured products. We are short of energy, low in agricultural productivity and have a small and uncompetitive manufacturing base that is responsible for stagnant exports – a major cause of the trade deficit. 

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Methodology: The following steps were taken to execute the study:

A comprehensive study & research to get the maximum data from various internet sources, our

instructor, books and research articles.

It was a group project report. Each member participated by reading articles and different material.

We then discussed every article and compiled successfully the final report.

Many research journals and articles were thoroughly reviewed.

Articles published in various newspapers like Daily Dawn, The news, business recorder, jang etc

and magazine Pakistan & Gulf Economist were thoroughly reviewed.

Other sources like business plus, articles by economists and research analysts were also used.

Statistical data from official websites like statistical bureau of Pakistan, State Bank of Pakistan,

Trading development authority of Pakistan, Export bureau, and others.

This report covers all the facts and figures to show the trade deficit of Pakistan and position year

by year.

The format of this report is according to what our instructor told us in class, all the heading are covered in our report.

Graphs and statistical data are enclosed at the end of the report.

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Conclusion

A reduced trade deficit is a very encouraging sign for the country which is struggling to safeguard its economy from external shocks as a result of current account deficit, a factor that has disturbed the country’s financial balance sheet for the last couple of years.

The merchandise trade deficit improved by 6.9 percent and declined from $12.5 billion in July-February FY08 to $ 11.6 billion in July-February FY09. The substantial decrease of 42.0 percent in imports outstripped otherwise significant decline of 17.9 percent in export growth which caused the trade deficit to improve by 6.9 percent. This is the first ever improvement in the last three years or so.

The trend has been portrayed in the above graph.

While this trend of decline in import is welcome trend the slower growth in exports is, however, worrisome and cannot be easily dismissed as a byproduct of global recession because most of our exportable commodities are relatively cheaper and, as such, their demand is largely inelastic in the world market. Apparently, Pakistan could have earned more from its exports if the authorities had succeeded in removing some of the major bottlenecks like energy shortages and poor law and order situation, which is affecting the overall economic activity very adversely in the country. In addition, it would have been much more preferable if the recent reduction in trade deficit could have resulted primarily from higher growth in exports rather than the decline in imports.

Curbing imports drastically is the only option as a short terms measure. As long-term measures, they suggest an all out well coordinated plan to improve our exports for which they are convinced, there is vast potential. In order to restrict the level of imports the Government has taken some measures. It has imposed additional duties on more than 370 items and State Bank has enhanced LC margin to 100% on import of Luxury items. These measures are not enough in view of the seriousness of the problem; they maintained and suggested a total ban on import of all non-essential items at least for a period of one year. They are of the view that through prudent exploitation of national resources and planning we can boost our exports to cut our trade deficit 10

drastically. There is a vast potential and exports surplus available in textiles, carpet, leather and sports goods provided necessary incentives to these industries.

Agriculture is another sector with huge unexploited potential. A country that is currently footing $5 billion bill on food imports could in fact reduce it to $1.5 billion, plus export agricultural products of around $5 billion in one year if the government pays proper attention to this sector. The legal system relating to agricultural marketing is in favor of trade and industry that marginalizes the farmers. This is the reason that high commodity rates have not benefited farmers much. Productivity of most of the major crops of Pakistan farmers is much below the global standard.

Another neglected sector from export point of view is the services sector, which has big potential. Export of services accounts for about 30% of exports worldwide. However, unfortunately in our country the Ministry of Commerce has no much expertise in this area.

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Policy Recommendation

The following points are recommended to improve trade deficit of Pakistan:

Pakistan needs more measures to cut on its petroleum imports either through looking into alternative fuel sources or demand management. The import of edibles also needs to be looked into carefully and may be given priority for domestic substitution.

Government need to steps to enable the firms and entrepreneurs to become globally competitive and export those products which are valued more in the international market. This would involve structural transformation in the form of increased mobility of labor and capital across sectors and change their production processes and ultimately the content of exports.

A total ban on import of all non-essential items at least for a period of one year

Deepen and diversify export markets particularly our major trading partners US and EU as well as countries with which Pakistan has signed a free trade agreement such as China, Malaysia and Sri Lanka.

Promote trade in services which globally have a more stable demand pattern and are less prone to detrimental external shocks seen for the case of commodity trading. Acquire and upgrade technology level so that Pakistan can move away from the traditional and low value export products.

Rationalize the tariff policy keeping in view the structure of value addition in various industries.

Promote agro-processed exports

Devise a medium term strategy to boost exports of gems and jewellery.

Provide incentives to facilitate technology acquisition, adoption, replacement with the

twin objectives of energy efficiency and environmental protection

Pakistan does not have a comprehensive energy policy; it has made limited progress in agricultural productivity; its main industry – textiles – is struggling to compete in global markets; its real interest rates remain negative; and the domestic capital markets do not have the depth to mobilize capital to meet its development needs. So Pakistan needs to focus on all these issues.

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The government must try to develop a consensus among the provinces on water and hydro power issues. Regardless of the reservations of small provinces, they all must come to an agreement on what our long- term needs are.

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Reference

1 Trade Development Authority of Pakistan http://www.epb.gov.pk/v1/statistics/index.php

2 State Bank of Pakistan http://www.sbp.gov.pk/ecodata/index2.asp#externalState Bank of Pakistan Annual Report for 2008-2009

3 The Federal Bureau of Statistics http://www.statpak.gov.pk/

4 Newspapers & Magazine

http://www.brecorder.com.pk/ http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=202564 http://www.thenews.com.pk/blog/blog_details.asp?id=234 http://jang.com.pk/thenews/nov2008-weekly/busrev-17-11-2008/index.html http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Business/10-Mar-2009/Trade-deficit-imports-decrease-in-Feb http://www.pakistaneconomist.com

5 Pakistan’s Economy: The regional comparison.http://thefinancialdaily.com/NewsDetail/81470.aspx

6 Pakistan’s Trade Policy, 1999–2008: An Assessment by Mirza Qamar Baig, PIDE.

7 External trade sector is worrisome! http://finance.kalpoint.com

8 http://www.opfblog.com/2596/pakistan-economic-survey-paints-a-dismal-picture/

9 http://forum.pakistanidefence.com/lofiversion/index.php/t59133.html

10 http://web.worldbank.org

11 Report on Trade Related Challenges Facing Exporters in Pakistan by PIDE

12 Article: Continuity or change in policy?By Yousuf Nazar http://www.dawnnews.tv/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/in-paper-magazine/economic-and-business/continuity+or+change+in+policy

13 Article: July trade deficit narrows by 31 per cent By Mubarak Zeb Khan Wednesday, 12 Aug, 2009 Dawn news

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14 Article: Trade with neighbours by Mohiuddin Aazim Monday, 17 Aug, 2009 Dawn news

15 Article: Trade deficit down 44.74pc in July-Sept By: Imran Ali Kundi | Published: October 11, 2009 Dawn news

16 Report by Merrill Lynch Research Report by Muzammil Aslam, Economist, KASB Securities. 10 July 2008

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Appendix Table 1: Import and Exports of Pakistan 25 years

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Table 2

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Chart 2

Textile sector of Pakistan

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Table 3 - Structure of Exports($ Million)

 Particulars 

July-February Change AbsoluteIncrease/Decrease

% Contribution to Increase inExports2007-08 2008-09 (%)

A. Food Group 1,425.1 2,099.3 47.3 674.3 136.2

B. Textile Group 6,854.0 6,470.4 -5.6 -383.6 -77.5

C. Petroleum Group 730.8 589.2 -19.4 -141.6 -28.6

D. Other Manufacturer 2,232.7 2,444.4 9.5 211.7 42.7

E. All Other Items 417.9 552.4 32.2 134.5 27.2

    Total 11,660.512,155.

74.2 495.2 100.0

Non-Textile 4,806.5 5,685.3 18.3 - -

Share of Textile 58.8 53.2 - - -

Share of Non-Textile 41.2 46.8 - - -

Table 4 - Structure of Imports($ Million)

    July-February   Absolute Increase

% Cont. of absolute increase  Particulars 2007-08 2008-09 % Change

  Total Imports 24,137.9 23,770.5 -1.5 -367.4 100.0

A Food Group 2,511.3 2,749.6 9.5 238.4 -64.9

  Wheat Unmilled 369.0 838.0 127.1 469.0 127.7

B Machinery Group 3,497.9 3,698.0 5.7 200.1 -54.5

  Power Gen. Machine 647.9 1083.1 67.2 435.2 -118.5

C Petroleum Group 6,340.2 6,921.2 9.2 581.0 -158.1

D Textile Group 1604.7 1037.4 -35.4 -567.3 154.4

E Agri Chemicals Group

3,653.6 3,528.9 -3.4 -124.7 33.9

  Fertilizer 625.5 365.7 -41.5 -259.8 70.7

F Consumer Durables 3,259.2 2,026.5 -37.8 -1,232.7 335.5

  Road motor Vehicles 855.8 622.8 -27.2 -233.0 63.4

G Telecom 1,427.9 716.3 -49.8 -711.6 193.7

H Raw Materials 2,192.2 2,096.3 -4.4 -95.9 26.1

I. Others 1,862.4 2,165.0 16.2 302.6 -82.4

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  Non-Food, Non-Oil 15,286.4 14,099.7 -7.8 -1186.7 258.1

  Non-Oil Imports 17,797.7 16,849.3 -5.3 -948.3 323.0

Table 5

PAKISTAN TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICIT 1976-2008

(Rs in millions)

 

S.No   Years          Trade Deficit Budget Deficit

01      1976          9212          13065 02      1977          11718         13261 03      1978          14835          14416 04      1979          19463          18250 05      1980          23519          16127 06      1981          24264          16637 07      1982          33212          19076 08      1983          33709          27940 09      1984          39368          27712 10      1985          51799          39416 11      1986          11354          44586 12      1987          29076          48529 13      1989          34106          63352 14      1989          45658          62068 15      1990          42384          62840 16      1991          32832          89193 17      1992          58161          89971 18      1993           81615          107525 19      1994          52751          92179 20      1995          69719          105352 21      1996          102834         137839 22      1997          139688          156588 23      1998          63178          204560 24      1999          75622          179177 25      2000          90114          196600 26      2001          87930          164900 27      2002          73683          202150 28      2003          62078          177400 29      2004          188789          162000 30      2005          368991          216967

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31      2006          726317          325300 32      2007          822494          502011 33      2008          1304153        683400

Table 6

Export Data – Commodity wise

S. COMMODITY BY COUNTRIES 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 NO

.   EXPORT %

SHARE EXPORT %

SHARE EXPORT %

SHARE

A TEXTILE & GARMENTS CATEGORY

1 RAW COTTON 68,151 0.41 50,226 0.30 70,122 0.37

2 COTTON YARN 1,382,874 8.41 1,428,041 8.41 1,300,968 6.83

3 YARN OTHER THAN COTTON YARN 36,996 0.22 67,193 0.40 46,792 0.25

4 COTTON CLOTH 2,108,183 12.81 2,026,388 11.94 2,010,611 10.55

5 KNITTED CROACHED FABRICS 51,378 0.31 63,568 0.37 71,666 0.38

6 READY-MADE GARMENTS 1,309,990 7.96 1,384,775 8.16 1,452,477 7.62

7 KNITWEARS 1,751,494 10.65 1,961,048 11.55 1,872,030 9.83

8 TEXTILE MADE UPS. 3,043,582 18.50 3,069,651 18.08 2,440,569 12.81

a) BED WARE 2,038,064 12.39 1,995,899 11.76 1,903,501 9.99

b) TOWELS 587,641 3.57 602,547 3.55 613,065 3.22

c) TEXTILE MADE UPS (EXCL.TOWEL&BEDWARE) 417,877 2.54 471,205 2.78 537,068 2.82

9 TENTS AND CANVAS 38,902 0.24 69,060 0.41 71,050 0.37

10 ART SILK AND SYNTHETIC TEXTIL 200,308 1.22 419,724 2.47 410,308 2.15

B OTHER CORE CATEGORIES

1 RICE 1,157,814 7.04 1,125,819 6.63 1,836,063 9.64

a) RICE BASMATI 479,616 2.92 556,320 3.28 1,068,862 5.61

b) RICE OTHER VARIETIES 678,198 4.12 569,499 3.35 767,201 4.03 1,157,8

14 7.0

4 1,125,8

19 6.63 1,836,063 9.64

2 LEATHER PRODUCTS 1,014,948 6.17 911,065 5.37 1,114,760 5.85

a) LEATHER 292,394 1.78 356,884 2.10 415,261 2.18

b) APPAREL & CLOTHING 501,786 3.05 388,115 2.29 528,154 2.77

c) LEATHER GLOVES 151,459 0.92 132,589 0.78 161,168 0.85

d) OTHER LEATHER MANUFACTURES 69,309 0.42 33,477 0.20 10,177 0.05 1,014,948

6.17

911,065

5.37

1,114,760 5.85

3 FOOTWEAR 145,220 0.88 1,144,516 6.74 124,135 0.65

4 SPORTS GOODS 343,329 2.09 288,383 1.70 302,723 1.59

5 CARPETS 257,263 1.56 233,334 1.37 216,620 1.14

6 SURGICAL GOODS,MEDICAL 163,078 0.99 190,789 1.12 261,072 1.37

7 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 825,654 5.02 858,379 5.06 1,259,330 6.61

8 MOLASSES 43,592 0.26 28,085 0.17 54,681 0.29

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Table 7Cumulative Imports by Major Countries

(Millions)

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Table 8Cumulative Exports by Major Countries (Million Rs)

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Table 9

Chart 3

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Chart 4

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