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Research Center for Energy &Environment
Case study on Quang Tri wind power project and the
needs for capability development
Dr. Nguyen Duc MinhDr. Nguyen Tien Nguyen
Research Center for Energy & EnvironmentAddress: Nguyen Chi Thanh Road
Building: Regional Hydrometeorological Centers of Red River Delta Tel: 08-4-7733686- E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.rcee.net
Research Center for Energy &Environment
Sustainability: + COP7: Renewable energy use is sustainable
technology + Vietnam government set high priority for
renewable energy development.- Additionality: + CO2 additional reduction is certain. + Technology transfer is promising.
CDM eligibility
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+ Country level: BAU projection for energy demand.
+ Sectoral level: Master Plan V for electricity expansion to 2010 with outlook to 2020.
+ Project level: Coal fired plants.
- Plan for new coal fired plants and their technological specifications.
- Averaged indicator of 20% top-plants.
- Be sure that while wind power comes to grid, coal power will be correspondingly reduced.
Baseline
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+ Boundary: Only inside of plants, wind or coal. + Time: 2002-2008, 2008-2012 and 2012-2020. + Direct leakage: - Up-stream of coal cycle is not taken into
consideration. - Emission during material production and
manufacture is neglected. + Indirect leakage is not discovered.
Project boundary and leakage
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Methodology-levelized generation cost
Construction period N years
commissioning
Life time: M years
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1. Investment capital($/kW)
- Overnight: Po.
- Final( total) Investment capital: P
P= P1(1+IDC)(N-1) +......+Pn = Po/N*((1+IDC)N-1)/IDC
IDC: Annual interest during construction.
2. Generation cost( GC:$/kWh)
GC = INC + OM + Fuel:
INC:Investment cost. Payback the Investment Capital
OM: Fixed O&M cost.
Methodology-levelized generation cost
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+ INC:
Assumption: - Electricity price is unchanged during life time of projects.
- Electricity generation is unchanged over the years.
- DR: Discount rate = 10%
- LF : Load factor %
INC = P*(1+DR)M*DR/((1+DR)M - 1)/LF/8760
+ OM: Fixed O&M is given in $/kW/year. Then OM = Fixed O&M / LF/8760
INC and OM
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Inputs and results for GCParameters Unit Coal plant Wind power Unit capacity MWe 600 1.25 Overnight Investment US$/kWe 973 1000 Construction period year 3 2 Interest rate during construction %/year 10 10 Total Investment Capital US$/kWe 1072.5 1050 Life time year 30 20 Load factor % 70 25,30,35,40 Efficiency %( LHV) 34 100 Emission factor gC/kWh 276 0 Discount Rate %/year 10 10 Fuel Price US$/GJ 1.23 0 Fixed O&M cost US$/kWe/year 31.4 20.2 Variable O&M cost US$/kWh 0.00175 0 Results Capital Investment cost US$/kWh 0.0186 0.0563, 0.0469,
0.0402,0.0352 O&M Cost US$/kWh 0.0051 0.00916,0.00763,
0.00654,0.00572 Fuel Cost US$/kWh 0.0130 0 Generation Cost US$/kWh 0.0367 0.0655, 0.0545,
0.0467, 0.0409
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Carbon avoided
• Based on previous results, one kWh of Wind power abates 276 gC or 1013g CO2.
• One Wind tower of 1250 kW capacity with load factor of 30%( the supposed to be more probable capacity) can abate 3327.7 tons CO2 annually
• The Wind field with 20MW capacity has 16 towers (1.25MW each). The amount of carbon avoided depends on towers introduction scheme. The proposal scheme and results of Carbon avoided are shown in the following table:
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Carbon avoidedTime Towers in
Operation Electric generation
kWh Carbon avoided
tons CO2
Cumulative tons CO2
2004 1 3,285,000 3,327.68 2005 3 9,855,000 9,983.119 2006 10 32,850,000 33,276.8 2007 16 52,560,000 53,242.89 2004-2007:
99,830.5 2008-2012 16 52,560,000
annually 53,242.89
annually 2008-
2012:266,214.4 2013-2023 16 52,560,000
annually 53,242.89
annually 2013-
2023:585,671.7 2024 15 49,275,000 49,571.6 2025 13 42,705,000 43,259.85 2026 6 19,710,000 19,966.24 2027 0 0 0 Total 1,064,514.3
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CO2 reduction cost
RC($/TCO2)=(GCw-GCc)/Emission factor
+ Carbon reduction cost with coal fired plant as base line can be calculated based on results of levelized generation cost: CO2 reduction cost($/TCO2) = 987.2*( 1.63736/X-0.0367) Wind Capacityfactor%
25 30 35 40
Red. Cost($/TCO2)
28.43 17.65 9.95 4.18
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Price of CO2 in dependence on electricity price, paid by EVN:
CO2 price($/TCO2)=(GCw-Pr)/Emission factor
X(%) 25 30 35 40 Pr :price of EVN ($/KWh)
0.04 25.169 14.393 6.695 0.922 0.0425 22.701 11.925 4.227 -1.546 0.045 20.233 9.456 1.759 -4.014
0.0475 17.765 6.988 -0.709 -6.482 0.05 15.297 4.520 -3.177 -8.950
Formula: CO2 price( $/TCO2) = 987.2*( 1.63736/X-P).
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CO2 red. cost vs. wind apacity factor and elec. price
-15
-10
-50
5
10
1520
25
30
25 30 35 40
Wind capacity factor%
CO2
Red.
cos
t $/T
CO2
elec. Price=0.04$/kWh elec. Price=0.0425$/kWhelec.price=0.0475$/kWh elec. Price=0.05$/kWhelc. Price =).045$/kWh
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RCEE wind speed measurement tower in Cua Tung
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Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation
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Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation
1. Institutional Framworks2. Methodology and Technology
Transfer3. Financial issues4. The role of NGOs
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Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation (Cont.)
• 1. Institutional Issues:+ International aspect: It is expected the Procedure for CDM will be completed .+ National aspect: After ratification of KP Protocol by the Government, an institutional and legal system for CDM implementation will be set up.
Training on the institutional issue is needed
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Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation (Cont.)
2. Methodology and Technology Transfer
+ Methodology approach such as Baseline should be defined
+Environmental friendly technology for different sectors should be introduced
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Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation (Cont.)
3. Financial Issues:+ Transaction cost
+ Economic aspect of the project
+ CO2 price
+ Investment Capital
Financial Approach should be introduced
Research Center for Energy &Environment
Capacity Needs for CDM Project Implementation (Cont.)
4. The role of NGOs+ In Vietnam, NGOs are more interested in CDM
+ Advantage of NGOs is the ability of flexibility in action
+ Disadvantage of NGO is lack of resources.
A combination of Government and Non-Government Organizations is the best solution
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Thank you for Attention.