Research & Forecast Report - … & Forecast Report TAMPA Q3 2017 ... As a comparison, ... Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF

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Research & Forecast Report

TAMPAQ3 2017 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Sep-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Effective Rent Per Unit $1,110 $1,112 $1,129 $1,144 $1,147 $1,043 $1,101 $1,131 $1,158 $1,193 $1,240 $1,279

Per Sq. Ft $1.18 $1.18 $1.20 $1.21 $1.21 $1.10 $1.17 $1.20 $1.23 $1.26 $1.31 $1.35

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 6.0% 5.6% 2.7% 2.4% 3.1% 3.9% 3.1%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly -0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 1.3%

Occupancy Rate 94.7% 94.9% 95.0% 95.2% 95.1% 95.5% 95.3% 95.0% 94.6% 95.0% 95.3% 94.9%

Occupancy Change - Annually -0.9% -0.7% -0.6% -0.2% -0.1% 0.7% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -0.4%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-6.40 $-7.11 $-5.48 $-4.02 $-3.73 $-3.74 $-4.46

As a % of Asking Rent -0.6% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% -0.4% -0.4%

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

RECENT SALESDate Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Oct-17 The Commons 3408 Lancaster Ct Egypt Lake-Leto

200 1972 24,050,000.00 120,250

Oct-17 Seneca at Cypress Creek 1810 Sweetbroom Cir Wesley Chapel 451 2010 78,865,000.00 174,867

Sep-17 The Preserve at Mobbly Bay

8210 Solano Bay Loop Tampa 316 2000 / 2008 47,000,000.00 148,734

Aug-17 Sanctuary at Highland Oaks

10246 Douglas Oak Cir Brandon 456 2002 70,000,000.00 153,509

Aug-17 Northgreen at Carrollwood 3831 Northgreen Ave Tampa 438 1986 / 2017 63,688,262.00 145,407

Aug-17 Boardwalk at Morris Bridge Apts

8800 Boardwalk Dr Tampa 146 2001 / 2006 27,400,000.00 187,671

Jul-17 Element 812 N Franklin St Tampa 395 2008 118,500,000.00 300,000

Jul-17 Fountainwood Manor 2810 University Sq Tampa 79 1980 / 1998 4,800,000.00 60,759

Jul-17 Gateway on 4th Apartments

501 116th Ave N Saint Petersburg

304 1975 / 2013 32,882,000.00 108,164

Jul-17 Oaks at Temple Terrace 5518 Terrace Ct Temple Terrace 128 1970 / 2005 8,850,000.00 69,141

Jul-17 Columns at East Bay 3660 E Bay Dr Largo 196 1986 20,300,000.00 103,571

Jul-17 Hamlin at Lake Brandon Apartments

1508 Ladora Dr Brandon 360 2003 60,000,000.00 166,667

Jun-17 Venue at North Campus 13702 N 42nd St Tampa 148 2012 33,654,110.40 227,393

Jun-17 Sunstone Palms 2225 E 131st Ave Tampa 536 1975 . 1995 41,700,000.00 77,799

Jun-17 Wind Tree 8540 Congress St Port Richey 324 1978 8,250,000.00 25,463

Jun-17 The Lakes at Port Richey 8228 Chasco Woods Blvd New Port Richey

288 1986 / 2016 29,001,600.00 100,700

Jun-17 Pearce at Pavilion 3603 Pavilion Palms Cir Riverview 250 2016 49,927,791.70 199,711

May-17 Aarans Walk Condominiums (bulk cond)

13101 Aarans Pond Dr Tampa 109 1972 5,362,650.00 49,199

May-17 St Charles Row 1175 Pinellas Point Dr S Saint Petersburg

368 1972 / 1997 37,465,000.00 101,807

May-17 Enclave At Wesley Chapel 1930 Devonwood Dr Wesley Chapel 312 2005 / 2016 52,500,000.00 168,269

May-17 The Park At Aberdeen 2902 Sycamore Ct Tampa 320 1972 / 2008 24,100,000.00 75,313


Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 3Q17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Total Units Absorbed 6,710 5,626 1,731 3,996 350,478 5,371 3,517 5,461 4,047 1,657

New Supply 4,012 3,987 4,704 5,325 387,002 5,416 4,746 4,026 3,204 3,869

Inventory Growth 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual August-17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Employment (000s) 1,208.4 1,250.9 1,296.8 1,336.5 146,541.0 1,333.0 1,359.4 1,383.9 1,411.7 1,436.8

Job Gain (000s) 32.0 42.5 45.9 39.6 2,100.0 36.2 26.4 24.6 27.8 25.1

Job Growth (%) 2.7% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2.8% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8%

Total Residential Permitting 12,427 15,283 17,180 16,581 1,120,198 20,109 21,102 19,061 18,147 20,447

Relative Change 3.4% 23.0% 12.4% 10.7% 6.1% 17.0% 4.9% -9.7% -4.8% 12.7%

Single Family Units Permitted 7,269 9,046 10,683 11,209 723,217

Relative Change -0.8% 24.4% 18.1% 19.2% 9.8%

Multifamily Units Permitted 4,896 6,044 6,332 5,286 364,705

Relative Change 9.8% 23.4% 4.8% -2.6% -1.0%

Multifamily as a % of Total 39.4% 39.5% 36.9% 31.9% 32.6%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.7 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.0 2.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 4.4 5.8 5.1 4.2 3.2

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 7.2 8.7 7.6 7.3 5.7

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area was 3.1% in August 2017, reflecting 39,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.5%.

Axiometrics forecasts Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.0% in 2018, with 26,405 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.9% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 25,804 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 5,568 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in August 2017, down -764 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 18,046 units were permitted in the 12 months ending August 2017, an increase of 866 units from the prior year’s total.


IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of October 15, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 4,770 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, of which, 3,538 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 3,231 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,686 per unit, or $1.71 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,604, or $1.63 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-82.40. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,148 per unit ($1.22 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,144 per unit, or $1.21 per square foot, in 3Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-4.02.

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend

Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent

Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central Tampa 768 799 2,397 3,964 1,192 15 $2,018 $2.03 $1,876 $1.89

Clearwater 379 47 360 786 101 9 $1,393 $1.67 $1,330 $1.60

North St. Petersburg 278 253 531 301 18 $1,621 $1.58 $1,532 $1.50

South Hillsborough County 260 250 366 876 197 15 $1,411 $1.43 $1,364 $1.38

University North 144 418 562 372 18 $1,388 $1.36 $1,287 $1.26

Other 2,136 1,713 976 4,825 989 12 $1,545 $1.57 $1,505 $1.53

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 3,543 3,231 4,770 11,544 3,152 14 $1,697 $1.72 $1,606 $1.63*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period


SARASOTADOWNTOWN TAMPA

Key

Lease-Up

Under Construction

Proposed

GREATER TAMPA

Downtown Tampa

PIPELINE MAP

22

43

27

48

32

53

37

58

23

44

28

49

33

543859

24

45

29

50

34

55

39

60

2546

30

51

35

56

40

61

26

47

3152

36

57

41

42

1

6

11

16

2

7

12

17

3

8

1318

4

9

14

19

510

15

20

21

62

67

72

77

6368

73

78

64

69

74

65

70

75

66

71

76


PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsLease Up1 Peridot Palms Lease Up Parkland Development Corporation 10601 Gandy Blvd N Brighton Bay 3812 Grady Square Lease Up Wisdom Development Group, Inc. 2615 N Grady Ave Carver City-Lincoln Garde 3003 The Fitzgerald Lease Up Florida Crystals Corporation 1211 E Kennedy Blvd Channel District 3004 Aida Palms Lease Up Green Mills 140 Aida Sr City of Lakeland 965 Aurora Lease Up The Richman Group 124 S Morgan St Downtown 3516 Aer Lease Up American Land Ventures 330 3rd Ave Downtown St Petersburg 3587 The Hermitage Apartment

HomesLease Up The Allen Morris Company 151 7th St S Downtown St Petersburg 348

8 500 Harbour Island Lease Up Forge Capital Partners 500 Knights Run Ave Harbour Island 2359 Icon Harbour Island Lease Up The Related Companies 301 Harbour Place Dr Harbour Island 34010 Havana Square Lease Up Southern Roofing 400 N Rome Ave North Hyde Park 27411 Integra Junction Lease Up Hines Interests Limited

Partnership15175 Integra Junction Outer Pasco County 322

12 Alta at Magnolia Park Lease Up Wood Partners 9155 Canopy Oak Ln Outer Southeast Tampa 29213 Ariva Luxury Apartments Lease Up Daniel Reiter 4100 Clubhouse Rd Outlying Polk County 31214 Legacy Union Square Lease Up Goldberg Companies, Inc. 8300 Osceola Polk Line Rd Outlying Polk County 15215 The Avenue Apartments Lease Up Village Partners 6720 S Florida Ave Outlying Polk County 26416 Springs at Bee Ridge Lease Up Continental Properties Company,

Inc.5900 Wilkinson Rd Sarasota 360

17 The Desota Lease Up Carter USA 1415 2nd St Sarasota 18018 The Nolen Lease Up Forge Capital Partners 949 Cleveland St South Clearwater 25019 M South Lease Up Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 5110 S Manhattan Ave Sun Bay South 10820 The Lodge at Hidden River Lease Up Oxford Properties 14059 Riveredge Dr Temple Terrace 30021 The Point at Bella Grove Lease Up Waypoint Residential LLC 8310 Bella Grove Cir Whitfield 180

Units 5,703

Under Construction22 Altis Grand Central Under Construction The Altman Companies 548 W Grand Central Ave Alice Kelly's 31423 Tampa Tribune Building Under Construction The Related Companies 202 S Parker St Alice Kelly's 40024 Lenox of Bloomingdale Under Construction The Richman Group of Florida, Inc. 5910 Robert Tolle Dr Brandon 24025 Tessera of Brandon Under Construction Srh Dev Llc 1320 Oakfield Dr Brandon 13826 Burlington Post Under Construction Green Mills 3201 Burlington Ave Central Plaza 8627 Skyline Fifth - Phase II Under Construction Latitude One Partners LLC 3151 3rd Ave N Central Plaza 12328 The Channel Club Under Construction ECI Group 1115 E Twiggs St Channel District 32329 Avanti Under Construction The NRP Group, LLC 201 4th Ave S Downtown St Petersburg 36630 Dunedin Commons Under Construction Dunedin Commons Llc 375 Patricia Ave Dunedin 28031 Bainbridge Ybor City Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 1512 E 12th Ave Historic Ybor 24032 The Alexander at Countryside Under Construction Alexander Investments

International, Inc2524 Alexander Pl North Clearwater 330

33 Park at Wellington - Phase II Under Construction Rieger, Matthew 4311 Jordana Way Northwest Holiday 11034 Seazen Under Construction ZOM, Inc. 7616 W Courtney Campbell

CswyOuter Central Tampa 323

35 Mystic Pointe Under Construction Rane Property Management, LLC 17053 State Road 54 Outer Pasco County 25236 Azola Magnolia Park Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 9374 Progress Blvd Outer Southeast Tampa 36637 Champions Vue Apartments Under Construction Srvp Llc 7396 State Route 25 Outlying Polk County 32638 Legacy Union Square Under Construction Goldberg Companies, Inc. Osceola Polk Line Rd Outlying Polk County 19039 Charleston on 66 Under Construction Theodore F Bertuca 12700 66th St Pinellas Park 25840 Palms of Pinellas Under Construction Pinellas County Housing Authority 13101 S Belcher Rd Pinellas Park 10241 50 Paramount Under Construction Renovatio Realty Group 50 Paramount Dr Sarasota 28442 Anson at Palmer Ranch Under Construction A.G. Spanos Companies 6201 Sawyer Loop Rd Sarasota 23943 Arcos Under Construction Forge Capital Partners 1401 Fruitville Rd Sarasota 22844 Bold Lofts Under Construction Hub2pointo Llc 1659 2nd St Sarasota 9745 Elan Rosemary Under Construction PGIM Real Estate 710 N Lemon Ave Sarasota 28646 Vue at Belleair Under Construction Flournoy Companies 2517 Belleair Rd South Clearwater 33947 The Tempo at Encore Under Construction JMG Realty, Inc. 1102 Ray Charles Blvd South Nebraska 20448 The Addison on Long Bayou Under Construction ContraVest 10260 Bayou Grande Ave South Seminole 247


PIPELINE DETAIL, cont.49 M South - Phase II Under Construction Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 5110 S Manhattan Ave Sun Bay South 18050 Westshore Ave Under Construction BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South 47651 Westshore Marina District Under Construction The Related Group of Florida 5000-5098 W Gandy St Sun Bay South 39652 The Pearl Under Construction Soho Capital 350 W Palm Ave Tampa Heights 30053 Parker's Landing Under Construction Cortland Partners 6348 Longboat Blvd Tampa Shores 35054 Main Street Landing Under Construction Onicx 5500 Main St Town of New Port Richey 8055 930 Central Flats Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 930 Central Ave University Park 21856 AER in the Arts District Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 259 W Tyler St Uptown Tampa 34457 Nine15 Under Construction H. J. Russell & Company 915 N Franklin St Uptown Tampa 36258 Novel Riverwalk Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 109 W Fortune Dr Uptown Tampa 39559 Altis Wiregrass Ranch Under Construction The Altman Companies 28878 Golden Vista Blvd Wesley Chapel 37560 Oasis at Highwoods Preserve Under Construction Picerne Real Estate Group 18300 Highwoods Preserve

PkyWest Meadows 295

61 11363 Countryway Blvd Under Construction Pleasants Corp 11363 Countryway Blvd Westchase 113Units 10,575

Proposed62 Proposed MF/Office Proposed Skyway Capital Partners 2907 W Bay to Bay Blvd Bayshore Gardens/Palma

Center125

63 5th Ave Residences Proposed The Richman Group 555 Martin Luther King Jr. St Campbell Park 13264 MetWest Apartments Proposed MetLife, Inc. 4050 W Boy Scout Blvd Carver City-Lincoln Garde 25465 211 3rd St S Proposed American Land Ventures 211 3rd St S Downtown St Petersburg 20166 801 Central Ave Proposed 801 Central-st Pete Llc 801 Central Ave Downtown St Petersburg 35467 Grand Bohemian Apartments Proposed Greenfield Partners LLC N 2nd St Downtown St Petersburg 30668 First North Lofts Proposed DevMar Development, LLC 1636 2nd St N Historic Old Northeast 21469 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Proposed BBC Rocky Point, LLC 3015 N Rocky Point Dr Outer Central Tampa 25870 Bermuda Bay Apartments Proposed Shamrock Realty Advisors S Westshore Blvd & W Pres Port Tampa City 35271 5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Proposed Gries Investments Inc 5145 S Dale Mabry Hwy Sun Bay South 30072 5220 S West Shore Blvd Proposed The Bainbridge Companies 5220 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South 35173 Waterside West Apartments Proposed IMDC Acquisitions 5320 S West Shore Blvd Sun Bay South 19274 Westshore Ave Proposed BTI Partners Westshore Ave Sun Bay South 43175 Meres Crossing Apartments Proposed DDA Development 1250 S Pinellas Ave Tarpon Springs 23676 200 E Madison St Proposed Urban Core Holdings LLC 200 E Madison St Uptown Tampa 12077 Wiregrass Apartments Proposed Forest City Realty Trust, Inc. State Road 56 Wesley Chapel 24978 Serenity at Lake Wales Proposed Equinox Companies Chalet Suzanne Rd Winter Haven/Lake Wales 335

Units 4,410

Total Units 20,688

# Name Status Owner Address Market Units


Venue at Lakewood RanchSarasota, FLUnits: 237

VENUE AT LAKEWOOD RANCH | Sarasota, FL

CHALLENGE: The challenge for this property was to sell prior to stabilization, and upon 65% occupancy in a market that no longer supports pre-sales.

STRATEGY & RESULTS: To sell this community, which was still under construction, our team was able to leverage our years of experience in order to match the seller with a buyer whose tastes in property acquisition met those of the property.

The East Region Multifamily Advisor Group provided Broker representation to both the buyer and seller. Additionally, We provided the clients with market research, property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations. We were successful in achieving the highest price on record in the Sarasota market, even prior to stabilization.

CLIENT: Davis Development UNITS: 237

OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings

Grandville on SaxonOrange City, FLUnits: 316

San Marin ApartmentsTampa, FLUnits: 193

Grand Reserve at Park IsleClearwater, FLUnits: 390

WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

33,500MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.3B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES


WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.

www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

Craig BrownASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 407 312 9349

Will MathewsSENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | PRINCIPAL | EAST REGION


AT YOUR SERVICE

Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION


Documents

Research & Forecast Report - … & Forecast Report TAMPA Q3 2017 ... As a comparison, ... Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF