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EAST-WEST CENTER

A Quarterly Newsletter

from the East-West Center

Honolulu, Hawaii

Vol. 1, No. 2

July-September, 1994

I N THIS ISSUE

Research Digest Asia-PacificAviation: Sky's the Limit 2

Profile James Dorian

Mining Asia's New Frontier 4

Research Projects A New Era

of Water Scarcity 5

Publications Land PolicyProblems in East Asia e

Viewpoint Housing Asia'sUrban Poor 7

China's Demographic Dilemma

Continued pressure by Chinese leaders to control population growth by further reducingfertility levels could accelerate the nation's growing problem of population aging, accord-

ing to a team of demographers from the East-West Center and China.In their 1994 study, "Below Replacement Fertility in China? A Close Look at Recent

Evidence," EWC Senior Fellow Griffith Feeney and Yuan Jianhua of the Beijing Institute

of Information and Control examine a controversial 1992 national survey that indicatesfertility levels in China fell from 2.04 children per woman in 1990 to 1.65 children perwoman in 1991. The 1992 survey, conducted by China's State Family Planning Commis-

sion, interviewed 106,873 women throughout the country."Because population aging is a problem that will unfold over the next half century,

China's birth planning authorities must consider the long-term consequences of current

policies," Feeney said.The survey has been a subject of contention among Chinese demographers, Feeney

and Yuen report. Recent changes in national birth planning policy, which make heads of

political and administrative units personally responsible for meeting birth planning tar-gets, may have created strong motives for under-reporting on the 1992 survey, they say.

Nevertheless, the 1992 survey does not, on balance, counteract results from five previ-

ous national statistical investigations (including two national censuses) that provide a "con-sistent picture of very low, fluctuating but generally declining levels of fertility," the re-searchers conclude.

These surveys, conducted between 1982 and 1990, were widely disseminated bothwithin and without China and judged to be of exceptionally high overall quality, they say.

The U.S. Congress established the East- Even allowing for substantial under-reporting of births of between 10-20 percent on theWest Center in 1960 to.foster mutual 1992 survey, Feeney and Yuan say it still appears likely that Chinese fertility fell to re-understanding and cooperation among placement levels during the early 1990s, or two children per woman.theh o n ofot e ver mnts and p theeoth gove ns a, i

d

oft

g espl

nts

e

r the `Near or below replacement level Fertility has a number of implications for the econom

United States. Through research, and society in China," Feeney says. "Fertility decline has the immediate effect of reducing

educarion, dialogue and outreach, the the proportion of young people in a population and raising the proportion of older people.Center promotes responsible develop- IF Chinese authorities continue to push fertility levels down to stated policy aims of onemerit, long-term stability, and human child per woman, within the next 50 years they could be looking at an imbalance of olddignity for all people in the region and

people that is unprecedented. The result would be a demographic situation with whichhelps prepare the United States For

the world has no experience. 'constructive involvement in Asia and

the pacific. Concern about population aging in China is not new. By virtue of the sheer size of itspopulation (1.2 billion), China already has the world's largest elderly population. China's

recent success in reducing fertility only exacerbates the problem. Some demographerspredict that by the year 2025 the number of people in China 65 years and older will

Continued on page 2

RESEARCH DIGEST

Contenued from page I

double to 12.9 percent of the population.

It is expected to double again by 2050.The situation has parallels in Japan,

where 20 percent of the population is ex-

pected to be over 65 by the year 2025. Butunlike Japan, a wealthy, developed country

of some 125 million people, China is a rela-tively poor developing country that does nothave resources to deal with problems that

population aging creates, Feeney says.

The increased share of the aged will shift

the major concern of social support fromchildren to the elderly, leading to increases

in expenditures for pensions, public healthservices, social welfare and social relief.

"The cost to China in the long term to

reduce future population growth will be apopulation in which persons of labor forceages will be required to support historically

unprecedented numbers of older people,"

he says. "Which is more important, mini-

mizing future population growth, or secur-ing a more favorable ratio of working age

persons to retirement age persons? This is a

tradeoff that China will have to look at."For more information, contact Griffith

Feeney in Honolulu at (808) 944-7456.

EAST-WEST CENTER

Asia-Pacific Observer 1076-5549), VOL. I, NO. 2, July-

September, 1994. The Observer is published quar-

terly by the East-West Center Office of Public Pro-

grams. It is sent without charge to readers interested

in the Center, Second-class postage is paid at Hono-

lulu, Hawaii.

Director of Public Programs: Webster K. Nolan

Editor, Grady Timmons

POSTMASTER; Address changes should be sent to

Asia-Pacific Observer, Eas y-Wesr Center, 1777 East-

West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Please include

mailing code label.

Asia-Pacific Aviation: Sky's the Limit

Spectacular growth rates in air travel within Asia and the Pacific have transformed the

region into the world's fastest growing market for passengers, aircraft purchases and air-

port renovation, say analysts at the East-West Center.

The number of passengers on scheduled international flights to, from and within Asiaand the Pacific will reach 375 million by 2010, a fourfold increase from 1990, according

to a forthcoming report by Center researchers Sumner La Croix and David Wolff. Duringthat time period, Asia's share of the world market will grow from 18.9 percent to 27.6percent, while the U.S. market, currently the world's largest with a 42 percent share, will

shrink to 36.1 percent.To keep pace with demand, the passen-

ger aircraft fleet serving Asia and the Pa-cific will expand by more than 50 percent

- by 2010, La Croix says. Thus, the regionwill account for the world's largest increase

E ± ° _ in aircraft purchasing, maintenance and re-

pair, generating tremendous revenues for0 firms that service and supply the aviation

° industry.

"The boom in air travel is already strain-

ing airport capacity within the region," La Croix says. "By 1995, nearly half of the major

airports in the region may have to turn flights away unless improvements are made."Several factors are fueling the growth of air travel in the region, La Croix says.

These include rising Asian incomes that will double intra-Asian tourism by the year

2000, the comparably longer distances in the region, and strong export growth and for-eign investment flows that have increased demand for air cargo services and business

travel_

To meet increased demand for air travel, more fuel-efficient planes that travel longerdistances and carry 600 to 900 passengers will be added to existing fleets of aircraft, LaCroix says. Presently, five of the nine global air carriers most likely to purchase the larger

aircraft are located in the region.But the region's new dynamism is also presenting the aviation industry with a formi-

dable set of challenges, La Croix says. Among them:• Asia is joining a worldwide trend towards privatization of government-owned air-

lines. Within the last decade, airlines in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, the

Philippines, Singapore andThailand have been wholly or partially privatized. Privatization

will increase airline efficiency and promote greater competition within the industry. Manymajor carriers will either merge, shrink operations or go out of business in the new com-

petitive climate.

• Airport capacity is not keeping pace with demand, Although expansion plans arealready in place in Japan, Sydney, Bangkok, Hong Kong and elsewhere, infrastructure

costs are prohibitive. Billions of dollars could be saved if countries work together to installsatellite-based navigation systems that allow existing airport infrastructure to be used more

intensively.

• A lack of region-wide planning and coordination could jeopardize the industry'slong-term growth. Presently, the airline industry is not covered by the GATT agreement

ASIA-PACIFIC OBSERVER 2

and there is no multilateral arrangement for

air service in Asia and the Pacific. Instead,there is an extensive system of over 2,000

bilateral agreements. The result is higherprices and a very regulated form of trade.

Organizations such as APEC could helpfacilitate a regional framework for more lib-eralized air service, similar to ongoing ex-

periments in Europe, as well as coordinateinvestment in airport infrastructure and

satellite navigation systems. Policyrnakers–should examine the possibility of includ-

ing the airline industry in next the GATT

agreement, La Croix says.For more information, contact Sumner LaCroix in Honolulu at (808) 944-7479

Building Blocks to FreeTrade

The recently concluded North AmericanFreeTrade Agreement and the newly formed

European Community present Asian na-tions with a dilemma of how best to ensure

their economic future. But proposals call-ing for a preferential Asian trading arrange-ment, or trade bloc, are premature, says an

EWC economist, who suggests that the bestway to promote trade liberalization in Asiais to strengthen APEC through a "buildingblock" process.

"Economic interdependence within the

region, spurred on by increasing trade andinvestment ties, has grown markedly," saysCenter Fellow Pearl Imada Iboshi. "The

i mportant point here is that this growth hasbeen based on market forces, not preferen-tial arrangements. A way is needed to en-hance this process to ensure the region's

continued economic viability."Forming an Asian trade bloc to accom-

plish this goal is not feasible for several rea-sons, Iboshi says. Reliance on exports to the

United States, for example, is still strong

among Asian nations, and Japan has notshown that it can assume the role of replac-

ing the American market within Asia.Some Asian nations also fear that creat-

ing an economic bloc would only spur pro-tectionism and economic confrontation

from other rival blocs, This could provetroublesome for a region whose economiesdepend on export-led growth, she says.

A better option, Iboshi says, is to

strengthen APEC, or the Asia-Pacific Eco-nomic Cooperation process. Established in1989, APEC has grown from an informaldialogue group to a Formalized institution

that addresses pressing economic issues. Its17 member nations include Japan, SouthKorea, China, ChineseTaipei, Hong Kong,

Australia, New Zealand, Canada, theUnited Stares, Mexico, Papua New Guinea

and the six-member nations of the Associa-tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)

— Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thai-

land, Brunei and the Philippines. Chile willalso soon be admitted as a member.

APEC presages a new Asian-Pacific eco-

nomic community, but with some charac-teristics that differ significantly from the

economic communities of Europe and

NAFTA. Moreover, agreeing on an appro-priate agenda for APEC will require recon-

ciling the differing North American and

Asian views among its members on how toapproach regional economic cooperation,Iboshi says.

"The so-called North American view isthat APEC should adopt a ` legalistic' ap-

proach with time tables for rapid institu-tionalization," she says. "A predominantview is that APEC should adopt an 'evolu-tionary' approach that is cautious, low-key

and does not force the pace of institutionaldevelopment but allows consensus to evolveslowly." , ~

Fortunately, Iboshi says, the two viewshave begun to merge. "The APEC leader-

ship seems to agree on a vision of free tradein the area' and on creating an Asia-Pacific

community that benefits its members with-

out discriminating against nations from

outside the region," she says. "The ques-

tion is how to go about doing it."In a recent paper presented at a June

conference of APEC scholars held in

Singapore, Iboshi and Seiji Naya, chair ofthe Department of Economics at the Uni-

versity of Hawaii, suggest an approachthatthey developed while working on a USAID-

sponsored project to increase private invest-ment and trade links between the UnitedStates and ASEAN.

"APEC ministers and the various APECworking groups in their respective meetingsshould focus on ` building blocks' of regional

trade and investment," she says. "Multilat-eral and bilateral trade agreements consistof specific policies that work toward liber-

alization or removal of trade and investmentbarriers. These policies comprise the build-ing blocks of economic cooperation."

Such building blocks include everythingfrom reducing the disparity of tariff levelsto cooperation in setting labeling and pack-

aging requirements. Harmonizing policiesfor investment and competition, coopera-

tion in developing infrastructure, and en-

vironmental protection are areas where thebuilding-block approach appears mostpromising, she says.

"We believe that the convergence ofNorth American and Asian approaches toregional cooperation will push APEC tomethodically tackle complex issues sur-rounding trade, investment and develop-ment in the region," she says. "The'build-ing block' strategy may be the best way forAPEC members to cope with the post-Uru-guay Round global , economy. APEC pro-

vides its member countries with the oppor-tunity to demonstrate their commitment toavision ofopen regionalism. With the rightapproach, APEC can become the drivingforce behind continued liberalization in glo-

bal trade and investment. "

For more information, contact Pearl Imada

Iboshi at (808) 944-7350 .

ASIA - PACIFIC OSSERVER- 3

PROFILE

0E

Cr

Jim Dorian:Mining Asia's New Frontier

The word "China' evokes images from avast repository of history: the Great Wall,

the Long March, Tiananmen Square. Butfor East-West Center fellow James Dorian,China is repository of a different kind—

a huge storehouse of mineral and energy re-

sources that are critical to the nation'sfuture and the role that China will play in

the global economy.

Dorian has spent more than a decadestudying the development potential of

China's mineral and energy resources.Inevitably, his study of China led him intothe former Soviet Union, so that his area of

expertise now embraces the newly formedCommonwealth of Independent States

(CIS).With two books published in the last two

years--Minerals, Energy and Economic De-

velopment in China ( Oxford University

Press, 1994) and CIS Energy and Minerals

Development: Prospects, Problems and Oppor-

tunities for Cooperation (Kluwer Academic

Publishers, 1993) — Dorian has become asought after minerals and energy economist

because of his work in an area of the world

where economic development has global

implications,"China, Russia and the Central Asian

Republics represent the world's major newfrontier for minerals and energy explora-tion," he says. "Authorities in all these coun-

tries are looking at development of theirnations' huge resource endowments as the

key to economic modernization, politicalstability and successful transitions to

market economies."Consider these facts, he says: China is

the world's second largest producer oFcoal,the sixth largest producer of oil, and pos-sesses more than 160 types of minerals.

Among the states of the former SovietUnion, Russia has the world's largest min-

ing industry, Turkmenistan is the world's

second largest producer of natural gas,

Uzbekistan has the world's fourth largestgold reserves, and Kazakhstan is being calledthe "new Kuwait" because of its oil potential.

Small wonder then that Dorian's exper-tise about the mining and energy industriesin the world's major communist and former

communist states is in demand. "Jim is aWesterner trained in capital markets who

also understands how socialist centralizedplanning influences energy and mineraldevelopment and trade," says Fereidun

Fesharaki, director of the Center's Programon Resources: Energy and Minerals. "Heis in a perfect position to promote under-standing between Asian governments that

are trying to use their resource endowmentsto rebuild their economies, and Western

investors who have the money and technol-

ogy to help them achieve these goals."Dorian began his academic career study-

ing geology at Pennsylvania State Univer-

sity. He soon realized, however, that he

wanted to broaden his area of expertise.

Turning to a related field, mineral and en-ergy economics, he earned his M.S. from

West Virginia University in 1983 and his

Ph.D. from the University of Hawaii in1987. His combined educational back-

ground turned out to be fortuitous, he says,because knowledge of both geology and re-source economics is critical to thoroughly

understanding the mining industry.His most receni: book on mineral and

energy development in China, a single au-thor work, is an outgrowth of his disserta-tion thesis and is the most comprehensive

and up-to-date volume of its kind. "Untilrecently, mining in China was run as asocial program," he says. "It was used topromote political goals, such as increased

employment. But there was a cost involved.When you are trying to employ as manypeople as possible, you do not achieve

efficiency in production or utilize the besttechnology."

Dorian's experience in China proved in-

valuable when he turned his attention tostudying the former Soviet Union in the late

1980s. In addition to the 1993 book on CISmineral and energy development, for which

he was the lead editor, he has also producedextended special reports on mining in theformer Soviet Union for the London-based

Financial Times (1993) and the Economist

Intelligence Unit (1991).

His current work in the former SovietUnion focuses on the Central Asian Repub-lics. He recently helped organize a confer-

ence in Washington D.C. that brought to-gether corporate interests, ambassadors andhigh-ranking officials from the United

States and five of the republics to promotestronger economic ties in the area of re-source development.

"China, Russia and the Central AsianRepublics are all in a transitional phase,moving from highly centralized and con-trolled mining and energy industries to ones

that respond to market forces," he says."Such dramatic change is posing difficult

problems. It's a new world with new mea-sures for success. The goal now is to makeprofits, not meet political objectives."

For more information, contact JamesDorian at (808) 944-7548 .

ASIA - PACIFIC OBSERVER 4

RESEARCH PROJECTS

A New Era of Water Scarcity

In Beijing, farmers had to dig thousands ofwells to maintain their crops after the city

began taking large amounts of water from

the countryside. In Manila, authoritiescould not account for 50 percent of the wa-ter supply because of leakage and illegal

taps. In Madras, water obtained from out-lying areas brought protests from rural resi-

dents who were deprived of their sources.Throughout Asia, urbanization is produc-

ing intense conflicts over water and challeng-ing the traditional ways that water is devel-oped and managed. But for the region as a

whole, a water crisis is not looming, accord-ing to an EWC environmental scientist.

"For most of Asia, conflicts over water

are solvable," says Center Senior FellowJames E. Nickum. "But From now on, theseconflicts are not going to be resolved in the

old way."The "old" way was to find and develop

new sources of water. "In the past, waterwas considered an unlimited and almost

free good," Nickum says. "But we are run-ning out of new sources of supply. In thefuture, people will need to find ways to

change demand and use less water."The shift from supply-side options to de-

mand-oriented solutions is at the heart of

the forthcoming book, Metropolitan Water

Use Conflicts in Asia and the Pacific

(Westview Press), coedited by Nickum and

K. William Easter of the University of Min-

nesota, with contributions from U.S. andAsian scholars who participated in a five-

year cooperative project conducted by the

Center and the United Nations Center forRegional Development in Nagoya, Japan.

The volume, which examines such prob-lems as growing water pollution, aging in-frastructure and the lack of coordinatedpolicies among government agencies, is anoutgrowth of an earlier joint project onwater resources management in north

China's Beijing-Tianjin region. That ac-

tiviry, carried out by the EWC and the State

Science and Technology Commission ofChina, clearly identified both the growingconflict between urban and agricultural

water users and the increasing need to adopt

demand management policies to resolve the

conflict, Nickum says.The question that followed was whether

si milar conflicts and management prescrip-

tions might apply to other Asia-Pacific cit-

ies. The answer was yes. "This book pre-sents case studies of seven different urban

areas — Beijing, Manila, Seoul, Bangkok,Madras, Osaka, Nagoya and Honolulu,"Nickum says. "Each city has a different

conflict, but all are driven by the increas-ing economic and environmental costs ofdeveloping new supplies, intensifying com-petition between new and old users, and

the growing importance of water quality."One-half of the world's mega-cities (cit-

ies with populations of 10 million or more)

are in Asia and the Pacific, Nickum says.Nonetheless, Asia is the least urbanized re-gion in the world in terms of share of popu-

lation living in the cities. Since most ofthe population in Asia is still rural and in-creasingly mobile, the stresses of urbaniza-

tion — including conflicts over water -are likely to dominate the political, eco-

EEE

UEr

nomic and environmental scene in the years

ahead, he says."The conflict between city and farm is

particularly acute because most of Asia's ma-

-jor cities are located within the world's mostextensively irrigated farmland," he says.

"Supply-side options to develop or treat ad-ditional water arc increasingly expensiveboth economically and politically, making

demand-oriented solutions more and more

attractive as alternatives."Ways of reducing demand include

changes in how water is priced and distrib-

uted, recycling efforts, active waste and

leakage reduction programs, new regula-

tions for toilets, faucets and shower heads,i mproved irrigation technology that saveswater, and educational campaigns that stresswater conservation.

"The basic philosophy behind a demand-oriented approach is that there is only somuch water — how can we do more with

it?" Nickum says. "The world has enteredan era of increasing water scarcity. Cities

in Asia and the Pacific have to consume less

and conserve more. Its people have to thinkof water as something they pay more forand use more wisely."

For more information, contact James E.

Nickum at (808) 944-7254 .

ASIA - PACIFIC OBSERVER 5

PUBLICATIONS

Publications Spotlight

Land Policy Problems in EastAsia: TowardNew Choices, A Comparative Study of Ja-

pan, Korea and Taiwan, edited by BruceKoppel and D. Young Kim. East-West Cen-

ter and Korean Research Institute for Hu-man Settlements. 460 pp. $20.00. Order

from EWC Distribution Office, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848, USA.

Land policy problems will remain keyissues in the industrialization, urbanizationand socio-political development of Japan,Korea and Taiwan, argue the editors of this

new volume. During the1980s, high land prices

and concerns aboutspeculation, idle land,

land use and housingaffordability all drew

widespread attention. Ifleft unaddressed, theseand other problems

Bruce Koppel could have serious im-

plications for sustaining

economic development and maintaining so-cial stability in East Asia.

A primary aim of this volume, the edi-

tors say, was to reassess land policy experi-ences in East Asia, identify common issuesfacing Japan, Korea andTaiwan, and explore

new choices for the future- A second aimwas to address the growing interest through-out South and Southeast Asia in the devel-

opment experience of East Asia. The bookexplores what elements of the East Asian

experience are worthy of imitation or ad-aptation and which are unique to East Asiaand do not have wider applicability.

Beyond that, the volume addresses

several fundamental issues that transcendmainstream land policy debates, includ-

ing the future of agriculture, environmen-talism and urban management, and theimpact that globalization in trade, com-

munications, travel and technological in-

terdependence will have on land problems

and policies -

Books in Brief

An Emerging China In a World oflnterde-pendence: A Report to the Trilateral Com-mission, by Yoichi Funabashi, Michel

Oksenberg and Henirich Weiss. The Trilat-eral Commission: New York, Paris, Tokyo.

84 pp. $12.00. Order from the Trilateral

Commission, 345 East 46th Street, New

York, NY 10017.This report to theTrilateral Commission

charts a course for dealing with China. It

considers Chinas rise more of an opportu-nity than a threat, and recommends a widerange of economic, strategic and political

actions that would facilitate China's involve-ment in the world community. At the same

time, it recommends that expectations be

kept realistic.

Tropical Deforestation: The Tyranny of

Time, by Ooi Jin Bee. Singapore Univer-sity Press: Singapore. 176 pp. $32.00 (hard-cover), $24.00 (paperback). Add 10 percent

of cover price for postage and handling.Order from Singapore University Press, Na-

tional University of Singapore, Kent Ridge,

Singapore 0511.The author addresses the now familiar

problem of deforestation from an unfamiliarangle, focusing on the time factor in the natu-ral regeneration of the tropical rain forest. Heexamines the economic and practical impli-

cations of the very long period of time neededfor such forests to regrow and concludes that

the tyranny of time makes it unlikely that theprocess of deforestation in the tropical rain

forest countries can be halted.

Cultural Change in Rural Indonesia. Im-

pact of Village Development, by Selo

Soemardjan and Kennon Breazeale with the

collaboration of Godwin Chu. SebelasMaret University Press: Surakarta, Indone-

sia. 223 pp. $15.00. Order from EWC Dis-tribution Office, 1777 East-West Road,Honolulu HI 96848. Or call (808) 944-7145.

Reflecting an awareness that the devel-opment of Indonesia must be rooted in its

huge rural population, the Indonesian

government initiated in the late 1960s a

wide range of village development pro-grams, including rural electrification, lit-eracy campaigns, family planning, village

cooperatives and intensification of rice pro-

duction. This book represents the first sys-

tematic study of the impact of national de-velopment on social and cultural changesin Indonesia.

Japan's Long-Term Petroleum Supply Strat-

egy: Policy Options for the Government andIndustry, by Fereidun Fesharaki, The Insti-tute of Energy Economics: Tokyo. 98 pp.

No charge. Available only in Japanese. Toobtain a copy, contact Tsutomu Toichi, In-

stitute of Energy Economics, ShuwaKamiyacho Bldg., 3-13 Toranomom 4-

chrome, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105, Japan.

This EWC report, commissioned byJapan's Ministry of International Trade and

Industry, concentrates on the global and re-gional factors that affect Japan's long-termsecurity of petroleum supplies. The study

examines Japan's role in acquiring a stablesupply of crude oil and refined products,

the implications of Japan's policies towarddiversification of oil supply sources and de-velopment of overseas oil resources, and

evaluates Japan's current stockpiling pro-gram and policies toward the Middle East-ern oil-producing countries.

U.S. Japan Trade: Get Smart, Not Just

Tough, by Paula Stern. EWC Asia-Pacific

Issues Paper, No. 12, April 1994, 8 pp. NoCharge ; Order from the EWC Distribution

Office, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu,HI 96848. Or call (808) 944-7145.

The latest U.S.-Japan trade dispute andthe shuffle in Japan's top leadership should

not divert U.S. attention from the need todesign a new trade policy towards Japan. A

"get tough" policy driven by disputes in-volving specific industries is inadequate, saysthe author. The United States also needs aget-smart approach more focused on resolv-

ing fundamental trade imbalances andpushing for growth and deregulation in

Japan -

ASIA-PACIFIC OBSERVER 6

EL

it

VIEWPOINT

Housing Asia's Urban Poor

by Yok•shlu F. Les

Asia's towering skyscrapers stand as a sym-.

bol of the region's growing prosperity. Butbeneath their gleaming facade is a dark un-derside: the shanties and squatter settle-

ments that house hundreds of millions ofAsias urban poor. That these contrastingrealities coexist is symptomatic of the un-

willingness or inability of governments andmarkets to deal with land as a central forcein shaping the quality of urban environ-

me nts.Most Asian cities are becoming increas-

ingly segregated because of bad planningand ineffective land-use management. Onlythe rich can afford to live in well-serviced

areas, while most of the poor, who have lim-ited access to land, must survive on periph-eral and often dangerous sires that lack wa-

ter, sanitation, roads and electricity.The chaotic, unplanned physical expan-

sion of cities has created property booms

and exacerbated land speculation, upped thecost of providing basic infrastructure, in-creased traffic congestion and pollution, and

forced the poor into slums and squattersettlements.

Land-related problems persist in manyAsian cities despite the success of a variety

of land reform policies and programs thathave been well-tested elsewhere. This sug-

gests that the effective management of ur-

ban land is more a political and institutional

issue than a technical one. It is not the "whatto do" that is lacking in much land policythinking but the "will to do it."

• One problem is that in many Asian

countries, different government agenciesclaim jurisdiction over urban land. In many

cases, no single government agency hasenough power to decide and implement a

comprehensive land policy, and no mecha-nism exists to set priorities and to integrateconflicting views into a coherent policy. The

urban citizenry fails to understand the truenature of the problem because in many casesbenefits from urban land reform are indi-

rect, and therefore invisible, while its costsare directly felt.

Few governments in Asia have formu-

lated a comprehensive urban land policy

that clearly identifies the government's ob-

jectives, and coordinates the government's

land activities to these objectives. ManyAsian cities are without sound land title reg-istration systems. In the United States, prop-

erty taxes often contribute more than halfof the municipal government revenue. In

contrast, some Asian local governmentsderive as little as 2 percent of their income

from property taxes, primarily because theylack of effective urban land valuation andtaxation systems.

-Extensive areas of suitable land in manyAsian cities lie idle or are not being usedefficiently, despite extremely high demand

and high prices. For example, 66 percentof government-owned land in Dhaka and

up to 48 percent of the land in India's larg-est cities is either vacant or under-utilized_

The existence of high-density slums and

squatter settlements within cities that alsohave substantial tracts of vacant land fur-ther supports the notion that the real prob-

lem is not shortage of land but inefficientuse and inequitable distribution of land.

Government actions are needed to

greatly increase the supply and reduce the

cost of all the components of a livable habi-tat, including land sites that are within easy

reach of employment opportunities for thepoor. Governments should also tap the in-

creases in urban land values as a source ofpublic development funds. In most cases,

these funds are sufficient to cover the costsincurred by urban growth, including instal-

lation of public infrastructure.There is no single solution to the urban

land crisis. There are, however, a numberof promising possibilities, which can be used

alone or in combination.

• Coordinate physical land-use planningwith urban infrastructure projects such assewerage and highways;

• Itnprove land registration and taxationsystems that allow urban authorities to en-

hance their revenue base to invest in infra-structure;

• Implement land inheritance and trans-

fer laws to counter trends toward land ac-cumulation by large land-holding familiesthrough generations;

• Initiate land-banking and land-pool-ing schemes that allow governments to in-crease the pool of land to exchange for low-

cost housing sites in the city;• Institute land readjustment projects that

produce low-cost land and housing sites;

• Introduce tenancy reforms to establishclear rights of tenants; and

• Provide incentives for self-help com-munity-based slum improvement projects.

The future of Asias cities cannot be left

to private developers- alone. If authoritieswant to make the urban environment morelivable, they must deal with the centralityof land in their urban management poli-cies. The technical problems in urban land

reform are soluble. The major challenge forAsia's governments lies in mustering the

political will to overcome the interests of

those who benefit from the status quo.Yok-shiu F Lee is a fellow in the EWC's

Program on the Environment. For more in-

formation, contact Lee at (808) 944-7251.

ASIA - PACIFIC 015SRVER 7

NEWS OF THE CENTER

Coming Up

Restoring the Ecology of VietnamAugust 6-20, Vinh Phu Province,VietnamU.S. and Vietnamese scholars will restudy Vietnam's

Vinh Phu Province to compare conditions of thearea in 1989 to the p resent, and to identify changesthat have occurred since responsibility for land

management and restorative ecology shifted from

cooperative control to private ownership.

Sponsors: EWC and University of California,Berkeley. EWC contact: Terry Rambo, (808)944-7272.

Majority/Minority Issues in MulticulturalismAugust 11-13, Honolulu.

An inter'national group of scholars will examinethe nature of majority/minori ty issues of identity

which are ofgrowing importance throughoutAsIa

and a major determinant of which groups havepolitical representation and access to power.

Sponsor: EWC. EWC contact: Dru Gladney,

(808) 944-7367 .

Internal Migration in China

August 22 -September 19, East-West CenterGovernmentpolicy in China has encouragedpopu-

lation movement to take advantage of changingeconomic opportunities. At this workshop, EWC

and Chinese scholars will analyze the relationship

between population migration and economic de-velopment to determine the success ofgovernment

policies.Sponsors: State Statistical Bureau of China,

Beijing University, EWC. EWC contact: MinjaKini Choe. (808) 944-7475 .

Changing Portrayals of Women in Media

September 20-23, site to be announcedHumanities scholars from the United States andAsia will examine the changing role and rep resen-

tations of women and feminism in different cul-

tures and in different media.

Sponsors: EWC and University of Hawaii. EWCcontact: Wimal Dissanayake, (808) 944-7302.

Listings reflect only a small number of pro-grammed Center activities. A complete three-month calendar of conferences, workshops andseminars is available through the Office of Pub-

lic Programs. Call (808) 944-7351 to be put onthe mailing list.

Japanese Emperor Akihito and Empress Michikoconcluded their recent 16-day goodwill tour of

the United States with a June 25 stop at the East-West Center. -

6 ^ The imperial couple,

who had visited theCenter in 1964, weregreeted by EWC Presi-

I dent MichelOksenbergand his wife Lois. Be-

fore meeting with s tu-

dents, researchers andmembers of the EWCBoard of Governors, the

The Imperial Couple Emperor and Empresstoured an exhibit trac-

ing the 34-year relationship between Japan andthe Center, and viewed the Center's Japanese gar-den, where they were shown a coral shower tree

they planted 30 years ago.President Oksenberg said he hoped the im-

perial couple's visit would underscore the im-portance of U.S.—Japan relations, especiallyheading into next year's 50th anniversa ry of theend of World War 1I. "Despite our current ten-

sions and economic differences, the reality is ourtwo countries are totally intertwined and facean inescapable future together," he said .

The United States government stands ready tobe a leader in controlling world population

growth and will play an aggressive role at theInternational Conference on Population and De-velopment scheduled for September in Cairo,according to U.S. Under Secretary of State ForGlobal Affairs Timothy Wirth.

Wirth, a former U.S. senator from Colorado,

spoke on U.S. population policy to 83 partici-pants from 24 countries attending the June 7opening ceremonies of the Center's 25th Sum-mer Seminar on Population. The program pro-

vides a forum for scholars, policymakers andanalysts to examine major population issues.

Wirth said President Bill Clinton informed

the United Nations last fall that population andsustainable development would be one of threebroad organizing principles guiding U.S. foreignpolicy in the coming years, reversing a long trend

of neglect in this area. Many in the Congress

and in the Administration would like to haveU.S. support for family planning—which

Clinton increased from $375 million to $500million during his first year in office—upped toa billion dollars by the year 2000, he said.

Wirth expressed optimism about the upcom-

ing UN conference in Cairo. He said there isworldwide recognition of the necessity to bring

resources together to focus on the populationproblem and to empower women at thegrassroots level as the primary agents of change.

"The Cairo conference will he for populationwhat the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio was for the

environment," he said. "Just about every nationaround the world is embracing the goal of popu-

lation stabilization. If countries want to do that,the United States stands ready to help ."

U.S. PresidentClinton's

June 3 decision toextend "most favorednation" trading statusto China reflectedrecommendationsmade by former U.S.

National SecurityAdviser ZbigniewBrzezinski during a

Zbigniew Brzezinski May 24 Center speech.

Speaking to an audi-

ence of 500 as part of the First Hawaiian Lec-ture Series, Brzezinski said the United Statesshould renew the MFN agreement while setting"general" rather than specific conditions regard-

ing Chinas human rights progress. Brzczinskihad just returned from a week in Beijing withEWC President Michel Oksenberg, where theymet with senior Chinese officials.

Brzczinski, the national security adviser un-

der President Jimmy Carter, said a revival of co-operation is needed today between the UnitedStates and China to deal with such issues as theNorth Korean nuclear arms threat and possible

Soviet empire-building in Central Asia."In order to discuss these issues meaningfully,

we must treat China like a partner," he said.

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