11

Research Requirements of an Research Requirements of an Ecosystem Approach to Ecosystem Approach to

FisheriesFisheries

A A ScotianScotian Shelf Case StudyShelf Case Study

Mike Sinclair, Bob O'Boyle & Mike Sinclair, Bob O'Boyle & TanaTana WorcesterWorcester

Bedford Institute of OceanographyBedford Institute of Oceanography

CanadaCanada

22

OutlineOutline

�� EAF EAF -- related issues specific to Eastern related issues specific to Eastern ScotianScotianShelfShelf�� Will not discuss industry Will not discuss industry -- industry issues industry issues

•• E.g. fisheries & petroleum conflictsE.g. fisheries & petroleum conflicts

�� Research priorities for EAF in this area for next 3 Research priorities for EAF in this area for next 3 -- 5 years5 years

�� Broader research implications of regional Broader research implications of regional experienceexperience

33

2

3 5

2H

2G

2J

3P 4T

3K

3L

3M

3N

3O 4V

4R 4S

4W

4X

5Y

5Z 6A 40

45

50

55

60

Greenland

Newfoundland

Nova Scotia

Cape Cod

Atlantic Ocean

6 6B

6C

6D 6E 6F 6G 6H

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

35

Georges Bank

Browns Bank

Banquereau Bank

Grand Banks

Newfoundland RegionQuebec Region

Gulf Region

Canada

U.S.A.

200 mile limit

4

Eastern Eastern ScotianScotian ShelfShelf

Atlantic Canadian 'lab' since 1998

44

ApproachApproach�� Types of IssuesTypes of Issues

�� Impact of fishery on ecosystemImpact of fishery on ecosystem

�� Impact of ecosystem on fisheryImpact of ecosystem on fishery

�� MultispeciesMultispecies management (manipulation of ecosystem)management (manipulation of ecosystem)

�� Sources of IssuesSources of Issues�� ESSIM Management PlanESSIM Management Plan

�� Ecosystem Status Report for ESSIM AreaEcosystem Status Report for ESSIM Area

�� Paper prepared for SCOR 2004 Paris SymposiumPaper prepared for SCOR 2004 Paris Symposium

�� ScotiaScotia--Fundy Fishing Industry RoundtableFundy Fishing Industry Roundtable

�� Classified issues using Canada's nationally established Classified issues using Canada's nationally established conservation objectivesconservation objectives�� BiodiversityBiodiversity

�� ProductivityProductivity

�� HabitatHabitat

Challenge of interpreting causality &

cumulative effects

55

EconomicDimension

Social &Cultural

Dimension

Sustainabilityof

HumanUsage

MaintainCommunities

MaintainSpecies

MaintainPopulations

ConserveEcosystem

Components(Biodiversity)

MaintainPrimary

Productivity

MaintainTrophic

Structure

MaintainPopulationGeneration

Time

ConserveComponent's

Role(Productivity)

ConserveCritical

Landscape/Bottomscape

ConserveWater

ColumnProperties

ConserveWaterQuality

ConserveBiota

Quality

ConservePhysical/Chemical Properties

EnvironmentalDimension

Conservationof

Species &Habitats

DFODFOConservationConservation

ObjectivesObjectives

Traditional

Fisheries

Management

Intent is for

Fisheries Management

to address all objectives

66

Approach (cont'd)Approach (cont'd)

�� For each objective, management question posed & For each objective, management question posed & associated research identifiedassociated research identified

�� Assessed probability that research can resolve Assessed probability that research can resolve issue in 3 issue in 3 -- 5 years5 years�� Is it tractable?Is it tractable?

�� Judged scope of research effort (who can do?)Judged scope of research effort (who can do?)�� Institute (BIO & St. Andrew's Biological Station)Institute (BIO & St. Andrew's Biological Station)

�� Atlantic Coast (Newfoundland Shelf to Gulf of Maine)Atlantic Coast (Newfoundland Shelf to Gulf of Maine)

�� Global (International collaboration)Global (International collaboration)

77

National Conservation Objective Fishe rie s Oil & Gas Tr ans por t M ilitaryOthe r Stake holde rs (NGOs

& Public)Spe cific Ecos ys tem Com ponents

on ESS re lated to the Is sues

M aintain com m unities Modif ication of Bottom habitat Ef fects on Benthic BiotaImpact of

Explosives on Bottom Diversity

Protection of Fragile Benthic Communities I.e. Coral and in

Gully

Diversity of the benthic community, the coral community and the high diversity

benthic community in the Gully

M aintain speciesProtection of Species at Risk, low

productivity & narrow niche species

Drilling Waste and Noise (seismic & acoustic)

Ef fects on marine mammals & sea turtles

Impact of Shipping Noise on Marine Mammals, Ship/w hale

collis ions, Introduction of Invasive Species through Ballast w ater

Impact of Noise on Marine life

Protection of Northern Bottlenose Whale &

Leatherback Turtles & other Species at Risk

Overall Species Diversity & specif ically the status of species designated

Endangered or Threatened

M aintain populationsMaintenance of Population

Richness w ithin Management units

Genetic Diversity of populations under Human Pressure

M aintain pr im ary productionImpact of Produced Water

Discharges on Primary Productivity

Impact of pollution on Primary Productivity

Productivity of Base of Food Chain

M aintain trophic s tructure Harvesting of f orage species Harvesting of KrillProductiviity of Each Trophic Level (incl. Forage species) and Energy Transfer

along Food Chain

M aintain m ean generation tim es of populations

Fishing Mortality on directed & by-catch species

Drilling Waste and Noise (seismic & acoustic)

Ef fects on f ish larvae, f ish and shellf ish

Impact of oily discharges on Seabirds

Grow th & Recruitment Productivity of Individual Populations

Conse rve e cosys te m 's phys ical features - cr itical

bottom scape

Drilling muds disposal and contaminant degradation

Sediment Quality

Conse rve e cosys te m 's phys ical features - w ate r

colum n prope rties

Fishing Noise Impacts on Ecosystem

Seismic Impacts on Ecosystem

Shipping Noise Impacts on Ecosystem

Miltary Noise Impacts on Ecosystem

Overall Sound Environment

Conse rve e cosys te m 's chem ical feature s - w ate r

qualityShip-source Pollution

Produced Water Discharge, Contaminant

Biodegradation & Biotransformation

Oil PollutionShip-Source

PollutionOverall Chemical Environment

Conse rve e cosys te m 's chem ical features - biota quality

Bioaccumulation Biocontamination Physiological Processes of Biota

Identification of Issues & 'Ecosystem Identification of Issues & 'Ecosystem Components' in ESSIM AreaComponents' in ESSIM Area

88

Management NeedsManagement NeedsGeorges Bank FisheriesGeorges Bank Fisheries

GF HF SF L/CF

Productivity

Primary Limit alteration of essential nutrient concentrations affecting primary production

Community Limit trophic level catch biomass with respect to trophic demands of higher levels

Limit total catch biomass within system production capacity

Population Keep fishing mortality moderate

Permit sufficient spawning biomass to evade exploitation

Promote positive biomass change when biomass is low

Manage % size/age/sex of capture

Prevent disturbing activity in spawning areas/seasons

Manage discarded catch

Biodiversity

Biotope/seascape Limit % area disturbed of seascape/biotope types

Species Limit incidental bycatch or mortality

Minimize change in distribution of invasive species

Population Distribute population component catch as a % of component biomass

Habitat

Bottom Limit % area disturbed of habitat types

Water Column Limit amounts of contaminants, toxins and waste introduced in habitat

Minimize amount of lost of gear

Control noise level/frequency with respect to species of risk

99

Biodiversity IssuesBiodiversity Issues•• Can fisheries management & industry respond Can fisheries management & industry respond

to large scale ecosystem community changes?to large scale ecosystem community changes?

•• What can be done to recover species at risk ?What can be done to recover species at risk ?

•• How should speciesHow should species--atat--risk be monitored?risk be monitored?

•• Do present management practices allow Do present management practices allow accurate discard & byaccurate discard & by--catch estimates?catch estimates?

•• Should fisheries management be concerned Should fisheries management be concerned about population substructure?about population substructure?

1010

Can fisheries management & industry Can fisheries management & industry respond to large scale ecosystem respond to large scale ecosystem community changes?community changes?

�� Investigate Investigate biogeographicbiogeographic characteristics of characteristics of fish/invertebrate communities & how these fish/invertebrate communities & how these respond to circulation/mixingrespond to circulation/mixing

�� Revisit 1990s East Coast of North America Revisit 1990s East Coast of North America Strategic Assessment Project (ECNASAP)Strategic Assessment Project (ECNASAP)

Tractability: High Tractability: High Scale: CoastScale: Coast

1111

Species ScaleDistributions

Identified transitions in bottom

communities consistent with

circulation & mixing patterns

Movement in transition zones in response to North Atlantic Oscillation

(NAO)

Mahon et. al. 1998Mahon et. al. 1998

1212

Newfoundland

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40

35

40

45

50

55

60

Bottom Community Transition

Zones

When NAO Positive

Tendency for Northern

Transition Zone to move South

& Southern

Transition Zones to move North

Are these patternsAre these patternsPredictable?Predictable?

1313

�� Determine if Determine if snow crabsnow crab & & shrimpshrimp are sustainable are sustainable populations or Gulf populations or Gulf extension during cold extension during cold conditions.conditions.

Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: InstituteScale: Institute

Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Institute Scale: Institute

�� Determine what is controlling the Determine what is controlling the invasion rate of invasion rate of CodiumCodium..

1414

�� Survivorship of leatherback Survivorship of leatherback turtles released from large turtles released from large pelagic pelagic longlineslonglines

�� Juvenile mortality & location of Juvenile mortality & location of porbeagleporbeagle puppingpupping groundsgrounds

�� Prediction of life history Prediction of life history characteristics of data poor characteristics of data poor speciesspecies

Tractability: HighTractability: High

Scale: InstituteScale: Institute

What can be done to recover species at risk ?What can be done to recover species at risk ?

Tractability: Medium Tractability: Medium

Scale: InstituteScale: Institute

Tractability: Medium Tractability: Medium

Scale: CoastScale: Coast

1515

Issues with other species

(e.g. BarndoorSkate)

Survey CPUE

How should speciesHow should species--atat--risk be monitored?risk be monitored?

�� Investigate whether bottom trawl surveys Investigate whether bottom trawl surveys provide reliable indicators of abundanceprovide reliable indicators of abundance�� CuskCusk hard to sample but show dramatic decline hard to sample but show dramatic decline

in abundance; is this real or due to contraction in abundance; is this real or due to contraction to preferred habitat?to preferred habitat?

Tractability: MediumTractability: Medium

Scale: Coast Scale: Coast

1616

BarndoorBarndoor Skate & SurveysSkate & SurveysSize is ImportantSize is Important

Trawl Trawl SurveySurvey

LonglineLonglineSurveySurvey

Mature Mature SkateSkate

Immature Immature SkateSkate

?

LonglineLongline Survey samples all size groupsSurvey samples all size groupsTrawl Survey samples predominantly immature skateTrawl Survey samples predominantly immature skate

Monitoring species at risk requiresMonitoring species at risk requiresconsistent time series of consistent time series of SpawnersSpawners

1717

Do present management practices allow Do present management practices allow accurate discard & byaccurate discard & by--catch estimates? catch estimates?

�� Impact of discarding on nonImpact of discarding on non--commercial speciescommercial species

�� Estimation of discard & byEstimation of discard & by--catch in ESS fisheriescatch in ESS fisheries�� May 2006 workshop uncovered significant data issuesMay 2006 workshop uncovered significant data issues

Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: InstituteScale: Institute

Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: InstituteScale: Institute

Also Productivity Issue

1818

Prior to 1984, ESS cod composed of Prior to 1984, ESS cod composed of spring & fall spawning componentsspring & fall spawning components

Determine if reDetermine if re--establishment of spring establishment of spring spawning component necessary for spawning component necessary for

recovery?recovery?1979-84

1988-92

Similar questions for other species

E.g. What is link between ESS and Bay

of Fundy Herring?

Should fisheries management be concerned Should fisheries management be concerned about population substructure? about population substructure?

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Institute Scale: Institute

1919

Productivity IssuesProductivity Issues•• What are management implications of What are management implications of

systematic removal of large fish on systematic removal of large fish on ecosystem functioning?ecosystem functioning?

•• What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for for ScotianScotian Shelf stocks?Shelf stocks?

•• Have current harvest practices caused Have current harvest practices caused growth reduction in gadoids?growth reduction in gadoids?

•• Does management need to consider impact Does management need to consider impact of climate change?of climate change?

2020

�� ESS ecosystem ESS ecosystem regulationregulation�� bottom bottom -- up or top up or top -- down?down?

�� Frank et al (2003) Frank et al (2003) suggests top suggests top -- downdown

What are management What are management implications of systematic implications of systematic removal of large fish on removal of large fish on ecosystem functioning?ecosystem functioning?

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Global Scale: Global

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

2121

Similar pattern seen in other

depleted finfish (e.g. wolffish &

skate)

Are these species in

predator traps?

Survey Z

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Coast Scale: Coast

�� Determine source & impact of high M on cod Determine source & impact of high M on cod

2222

Pups Recent evidencefor drop in r

Predicted

Observed

�� Role of grey sealsRole of grey seals�� Determine what population processes (e.g., Determine what population processes (e.g.,

density density -- dependent) regulate seals dependent) regulate seals

Roughly 700,000t of prey consumed each year compared to 6,000t 40 yr ago

Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: Coast Scale: Coast

2323

�� Investigate food requirements & Investigate food requirements & consumption estimates of apex consumption estimates of apex predators (seals, sea birds, etc) predators (seals, sea birds, etc)

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: Institute Scale: Institute

ESS Cod consumed using 3 different model assumption s

2424

��Are current seal consumption Are current seal consumption estimates accurate?estimates accurate?�� Issues with stomach samplesIssues with stomach samples

•• Biased towards small prey?Biased towards small prey?

•• Fishermen observe cod belly bitesFishermen observe cod belly bites

�� Issues with fatty acid analysisIssues with fatty acid analysis•• Reproducible?Reproducible?

Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: InstituteScale: Institute

2525

What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for What is minimum Spawning Stock Biomass for ScotianScotian Shelf stocks?Shelf stocks?

�� Determine longDetermine long--term changes in SSBterm changes in SSB�� ESS Cod good example of ESS Cod good example of Pauly'sPauly's 'Shifting Baseline 'Shifting Baseline

Syndrome'Syndrome'

MSY

Recent Assessments Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: InstituteScale: Institute

2626

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

NE ArcticNorth SeaFaroesIcelandic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

5Z4X bof4X wss4VW

ScotianScotian ShelfShelf NE AtlanticNE Atlantic

Weight (kg) at Age 7Weight (kg) at Age 7

Have current harvest practices caused growth Have current harvest practices caused growth reduction in gadoids?reduction in gadoids?

�� Determine relative roles of environment Determine relative roles of environment & genetic selection on haddock growth & genetic selection on haddock growth

Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Institute Scale: Institute

2727

Does management need to consider Does management need to consider impact of climate change?impact of climate change?

�� Trends in fish recruitment in relation to Trends in fish recruitment in relation to climate changeclimate change�� Link between timing of spring phytoplankton Link between timing of spring phytoplankton

bloom & ESS haddock recruitmentbloom & ESS haddock recruitment

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: CoastScale: Coast

Also Productivity IssueAlso Productivity Issue

2828

Habitat IssuesHabitat Issues

•• Are fishery closures & gear restrictions Are fishery closures & gear restrictions adequate to protect benthic habitat?adequate to protect benthic habitat?

•• Can impacts of climate change on Can impacts of climate change on habitat be predicted?habitat be predicted?

2929

Are fishery closures & gear restrictions Are fishery closures & gear restrictions adequate to protect benthic habitat?adequate to protect benthic habitat?

��Determine if benthic community spatial Determine if benthic community spatial patterns can be predicted from geological, patterns can be predicted from geological, oceanographic & biological observations oceanographic & biological observations

��Determine proportion of each benthic habitat Determine proportion of each benthic habitat type that needs to be protectedtype that needs to be protected

�� Sensitivity of benthic communitiesSensitivity of benthic communities

Tractability: MediumTractability: MediumScale: Global Scale: Global

3030

Influence of geology, oceanography & Influence of geology, oceanography & biology on life history traitsbiology on life history traits

Areas of Potentially

Higher Sensitivity

Areas of Potentially

Higher Sensitivity

Scope for Growth

Dis

turb

ance

High Productivity (Benign)

Low Productivity (Adverse)

Sta

ble

Dis

turb

ed

De

pth

Gra

insi

zeC

urr

en

t

Food AvailabilityWater temperatureVariability in temperatureOxygen Saturation

Wav

e he

ight

/per

iod

Stratification

Lowest Risk to

Impact

HighestRisk

toImpact

Lowest Risk to

Impact

HighestRisk

toImpact

Scope for Growth

Dis

turb

ance

High Productivity (Benign)

Low Productivity (Adverse)

Sta

ble

Dis

turb

ed

De

pth

Gra

insi

zeC

urr

en

t

Food AvailabilityWater temperatureVariability in temperatureOxygen Saturation

Wav

e he

ight

/per

iod

Stratification

Lowest Risk to

Impact

HighestRisk

toImpact

Lowest Risk to

Impact

HighestRisk

toImpact

3131

�� Determine relationship between size & location of Determine relationship between size & location of protected areas & benthic community conservation protected areas & benthic community conservation

Current ClosuresCurrent Closures

Biodiversity

Fishery

Tractability: Low Tractability: Low Scale: Global Scale: Global

3232

�� Mechanism whereby climate change Mechanism whereby climate change influences ESS oceanographyinfluences ESS oceanography�� Impacts on benthic & pelagic habitatImpacts on benthic & pelagic habitat

�� Implications of North Atlantic Oscillation Implications of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)(NAO)

Can impacts of climate change Can impacts of climate change on habitat be predicted?on habitat be predicted?

Tractability: LowTractability: LowScale: CoastScale: Coast

3333

• Linkage of Scotian Shelf with larger North Atlantic atmospheric system

• Different response to NAO north & south of Halifax

• Periodic? Predictable?

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

NAO Winter

Anomaly

1970 - 2003 bottom C0 differences

(neg - pos anomaly)

3434

Summary of Tractability & Scale Summary of Tractability & Scale TractabilityTractability

�� HighHigh 22�� MediumMedium 77�� LowLow 1212

ScaleScale

�� InstituteInstitute 1212�� CoastCoast 66�� GlobalGlobal 33

•• Management of ecosystemManagement of ecosystem•• Knowledge wonKnowledge won’’t be available in 3 t be available in 3 –– 5 years5 years

•• Management of researchManagement of research•• Considerable progress can be made at institute levelConsiderable progress can be made at institute level•• Partnerships at regional & global scale required for Partnerships at regional & global scale required for

several key issuesseveral key issues

ImplicationsImplications

3535

Emergent Research Issues Emergent Research Issues requiring international collaborationrequiring international collaboration

�� Link biodiversity to productivity & resilienceLink biodiversity to productivity & resilience

�� Ecosystem regulation (bottom Ecosystem regulation (bottom -- up & top up & top --down)down)

�� Link between habitat type & sensitivityLink between habitat type & sensitivity

�� Spatial scales of connectivity between Spatial scales of connectivity between benthic communitiesbenthic communities

SCOR SCOR WG?WG?

3636

Shortfalls of ApproachShortfalls of Approach

�� Focus on needs by conservation objectiveFocus on needs by conservation objective�� Requires prioritization of management issues Requires prioritization of management issues

�� Misses ecosystem level synthesisMisses ecosystem level synthesis

�� Need forNeed for�� ‘‘Ecological Risk AnalysisEcological Risk Analysis’’

•• Qualitative / QuantitativeQualitative / Quantitative

�� Contextual ecosystem modelingContextual ecosystem modeling•• EgEg. Atlantis, . Atlantis, EcopathEcopath with with EcosimEcosim ((EwEEwE))

3737

Thank You!Thank You!