Residential Annual Validation Suspension Update

1

Residential Annual Validation Suspension Update

Presented by ERCOT Staff to

Profiling Working Group

09/29/2005

2

Residential Survey Update

• Survey was mailed on August 30, 2005

• Response rate is 11.0% as of 09/16/2005 (about the same as the pilot survey)

• Response data is being provided by the Market Research firm

• Next steps• Response validation• Statistical Assignment Algorithm development• Apply algorithm to all ESIIDS with Profile Assignment Changes and

determine accuracy

• Algorithm will also be applied to evaluate overall assignment accuracy and the accuracy impact of proposed changes for Annual Validation 2006

3

Data Aggregation Test Runs

• Test environment has been created and snapshot of Production Lodestar taken as of 07/30/2005

• Stratified Sample of 30 trade days has been selected• 3 Strata based on difference between RESLOWR and RESHIWR profile• 10 days per stratum

• Baseline Data Aggregation Runs have been completed and statistics captured

• Profile IDs have been updated (old ones saved to a temporary table to allow us to revert back to original assignments) to reflect Annual Validation

• 578,000 Residential Assignment changes

• Next steps• Data Aggregation Re-Runs to capture the affect to the assignment changes• Analyze and summarize differences

• Will revert assignments to allow for testing of revised assignment algorithm(s)

• Will perform similar analysis on Business to obtain Annual Validation impacts for Residential only, Business only and Both

4

Statistical Assignment Algorithm

• Regression between actual meter readings for a premise and the RESHIWR and RESLOWR profile consumption for the same time periods

• Use reads during shoulder and winter months for several years

• Assign to profile with a better fit

• Omit reads during periods of very low use (no/low occupancy)

• Omit outlier reads and require some reads to exceed a minimum kWh/day threshold in order to assign RESHIWR

• Parameters of assignment process determined from use of Residential Survey response data

5

Statistical ApproachRESHIWR Example

6

Statistical ApproachRESLOWR Example

7

Statistical ApproachMiss-assignment Example

8

IMPACT OF PROFILE ASSIGNMENT MISCLASSIFICATION

• PROFILE ASSIGNMENT ERRORS CREATE TWO TYPES OF LOAD PROFILE ESTIMATION DIFFERENCES

• ASSIGNMENT OF BILLING KWH TO THE DAYS WITHIN THE BILLING PERIOD

• (RESHIWR assigns more kWh than RESLOWR to cold days)

• ASSIGNMENT OF DAILY KWH TO THE INTERVALS WITHIN THE DAY

• (RESHIWR assigns more kWh to morning intervals)

9

wzone=COAST gr oup=2004/ 05

mon_ pct _ l o mon_ pct _ hi

Dai l y Per cent

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usedat e

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10


Hi / Lo Rat i o

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11

Coast ResidentialProfile Comparison

COAST - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.72676

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad

RESLOWR RESLOWR MISS-CLASSIFIED RESHIWR RESHIWR MISS-CLASSIFIED

COAST - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.91584

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


COAST - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.82226

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


COAST - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.13726

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


12

COAST HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

hi _ l o_ r at i o_ r MI DPOI NT

0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2

hi_lo_ratio_r Frequency Percent

0.5 127 0.62

0.6 1161 5.71

0.7 1828 8.98

0.8 2790 13.71

0.9 4087 20.09

1 3453 16.97

1.1 1945 9.56

1.2 1277 6.28

1.3 1075 5.28

1.4 837 4.11

1.5 641 3.15

1.6 455 2.24

1.7 291 1.43

1.8 173 0.85

1.9 114 0.56

2 60 0.29

2.1 21 0.10

2.2 9 0.04

2.3 4 0.02

50% of intervals have > 15% difference

13

wzone=EAST gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

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usedat e

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14


Hi / Lo Rat i o

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050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

15

East ResidentialProfile Comparison

EAST - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.73126

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


EAST - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.91931

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


EAST - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio =0.81454

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


EAST - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.10533

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


16

EAST HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.5 235 1.15

0.6 1202 5.91

0.7 1801 8.85

0.8 3177 15.61

0.9 3876 19.05

1 3106 15.26

1.1 1952 9.59

1.2 1266 6.22

1.3 960 4.72

1.4 822 4.04

1.5 658 3.23

1.6 507 2.49

1.7 387 1.90

1.8 184 0.90

1.9 114 0.56

2 68 0.33

2.1 22 0.11

2.2 10 0.05

2.3 1 0.00


17

wzone=FWEST gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

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Hi / Lo Rat i o

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

19

Fwest ResidentialProfile Comparison

FWEST - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.73991

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


FWEST - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.10325

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


FWEST - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.08446

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


FWEST - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.73049

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


20

FWEST HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.5 126 0.62

0.6 1211 5.95

0.7 2720 13.37

0.8 3667 18.02

0.9 2802 13.77

1 2614 12.85

1.1 1922 9.45

1.2 1586 7.79

1.3 1110 5.46

1.4 803 3.95

1.5 579 2.85

1.6 397 1.95

1.7 329 1.62

1.8 216 1.06

1.9 137 0.67

2 72 0.35

2.1 34 0.17

2.2 22 0.11

2.3 1 0.00


21

wzone=NCENT gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

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22


Hi / Lo Rat i o

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

23

Ncent ResidentialProfile Comparison

NCENT - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.70873

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


NCENT - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.88097

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


NCENT - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.98041

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


NCENT - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.08476

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93Interval

Lo

ad


24

NCENT HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.4 15 0.07

0.5 385 1.89

0.6 1201 5.90

0.7 1815 8.92

0.8 3179 15.62

0.9 3707 18.22

1 2965 14.57

1.1 1963 9.65

1.2 1408 6.92

1.3 1101 5.41

1.4 868 4.27

1.5 630 3.10

1.6 436 2.14

1.7 310 1.52

1.8 178 0.87

1.9 110 0.54

2 37 0.18

2.1 27 0.13

2.2 13 0.06


25

wzone=NORTH gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

26


Hi / Lo Rat i o

0. 5

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0. 8

0. 9

1. 0

1. 1

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2. 0

usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

27

North ResidentialProfile Comparison

NORTH - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.68039

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


NORTH - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.8288

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


NORTH - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.03304

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


NORTH - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.03070

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

IntervalL

oad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


28

NORTH HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.4 28 0.14

0.5 417 2.05

0.6 1197 5.88

0.7 2185 10.74

0.8 3132 15.39

0.9 3318 16.31

1 2609 12.82

1.1 2055 10.10

1.2 1615 7.94

1.3 1036 5.09

1.4 1047 5.15

1.5 601 2.95

1.6 495 2.43

1.7 350 1.72

1.8 171 0.84

1.9 55 0.27

2 23 0.11

2.1 14 0.07


29

wzone=SCENT gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

0. 00

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Hi / Lo Rat i o

0. 5

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050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

31

Scent ResidentialProfile Comparison

SCENT - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.82528

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SCENT - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.92427

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SCENT - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.86686

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SCENT - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.12072

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

IntervalL

oad



0.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.020

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


32

SCENT HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.5 2 0.01

0.6 186 0.91

0.7 1286 6.32

0.8 3173 15.59

0.9 5216 25.63

1 4340 21.33

1.1 2321 11.41

1.2 1562 7.68

1.3 945 4.64

1.4 596 2.93

1.5 304 1.49

1.6 195 0.96

1.7 116 0.57

1.8 66 0.32

1.9 29 0.14

2 11 0.05


33

wzone=SOUTH gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

0. 00

0. 01

0. 02

0. 03

0. 04

0. 05

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

34


Hi / Lo Rat i o

0. 5

0. 6

0. 7

0. 8

0. 9

1. 0

1. 1

1. 2

1. 3

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1. 5

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

35

South ResidentialProfile Comparison

SOUTH - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.94302

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SOUTH - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.82076

0.0000.0020.0040.0060.0080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.020

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SOUTH - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.87601

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


SOUTH - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.31871

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


36

SOUTH HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.6 368 1.81

0.7 1400 6.88

0.8 2745 13.49

0.9 5147 25.29

1 4428 21.76

1.1 1987 9.77

1.2 1179 5.79

1.3 789 3.88

1.4 620 3.05

1.5 456 2.24

1.6 391 1.92

1.7 301 1.48

1.8 215 1.06

1.9 141 0.69

2 66 0.32

2.1 31 0.15

2.2 22 0.11

2.3 14 0.07

2.4 33 0.16

2.5 14 0.07

2.6 1 0.00


37

wzone=WEST gr oup=2004/ 05


Dai l y Per cent

0. 00

0. 01

0. 02

0. 03

0. 04

0. 05

0. 06

0. 07

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usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

38


Hi / Lo Rat i o

0. 5

0. 6

0. 7

0. 8

0. 9

1. 0

1. 1

1. 2

1. 3

1. 4

1. 5

1. 6

1. 7

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1. 9

2. 0

usedat e

050104 060104 070104 080104 090104 100104 110104 120104 010105 020105 030105 040105 050105

39

West ResidentialProfile Comparison

WEST - October 22, 200420th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.78101

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


WEST - November 13, 200340th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.02573

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


WEST - November 22, 20035th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 0.67546

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


WEST - December 19, 200380th Percentile HI/LO Ratio = 1.18088

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad



0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

0.030

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Interval

Lo

ad


40

WEST HI/LO RATIO INTERVAL PERCENT OF MONTHLY KWH OCT 2004 – APR 2005


FREQUENCY

0

1000

2000

3000

4000


0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 8 0. 9 1. 0 1. 1 1. 2 1. 3 1. 4 1. 5 1. 6 1. 7 1. 8 1. 9 2. 0 2. 1 2. 2


0.4 1 0.00

0.5 221 1.09

0.6 1285 6.32

0.7 2464 12.11

0.8 3697 18.17

0.9 3189 15.67

1 2280 11.21

1.1 1943 9.55

1.2 1467 7.21

1.3 1057 5.19

1.4 791 3.89

1.5 571 2.81

1.6 456 2.24

1.7 355 1.74

1.8 212 1.04

1.9 169 0.83

2 109 0.54

2.1 41 0.20

2.2 26 0.13

2.3 13 0.06

2.4 1 0.00


41

Residential ProfileComparison Summary

COMPARISON OF RESHIWR VS RESLOWR PROFILESMEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENT DIFFERENCE

INTERVAL AS A PERCENT OF DAY DAY AS A PERCENT OF MONTH INTERVAL AS A PERCENT OF MONTH

SHOULDER SUMMER WINTER SHOULDER SUMMER WINTER SHOULDER SUMMER WINTER

COAST 2001/02 9.1% 4.2% 15.5% 15.5% 1.5% 20.6% 18.1% 4.5% 26.2%2002/03 9.6% 4.1% 14.5% 13.7% 1.4% 21.6% 16.7% 4.5% 25.8%2003/04 8.3% 4.1% 14.6% 12.0% 1.2% 19.7% 15.1% 4.3% 24.4%2004/05 8.8% 4.1% 13.0% 13.2% 1.3% 24.8% 16.3% 4.4% 27.8%

EAST 2001/02 13.1% 4.8% 21.0% 15.1% 1.5% 16.7% 20.3% 5.1% 27.4%2002/03 14.3% 4.6% 19.6% 13.2% 1.4% 17.5% 19.7% 4.9% 26.3%2003/04 12.2% 4.6% 20.5% 12.0% 1.4% 16.3% 17.9% 4.9% 26.6%2004/05 12.7% 4.7% 18.5% 11.5% 1.3% 21.1% 17.6% 5.0% 28.3%

FWEST 2001/02 15.8% 7.3% 23.0% 15.2% 2.2% 12.4% 22.0% 7.6% 25.7%2002/03 15.4% 7.2% 22.2% 14.3% 2.2% 13.2% 21.2% 7.5% 26.4%2003/04 14.0% 7.4% 21.6% 15.2% 2.2% 12.7% 21.2% 7.8% 25.1%2004/05 15.8% 7.6% 20.3% 14.6% 2.9% 15.7% 21.9% 8.2% 25.2%

NCENT 2001/02 13.6% 4.5% 21.1% 16.2% 1.4% 14.5% 21.3% 4.8% 26.0%2002/03 14.8% 4.8% 20.0% 13.8% 1.6% 14.9% 20.4% 5.1% 24.8%2003/04 12.4% 4.7% 20.2% 12.7% 1.4% 16.5% 18.8% 4.9% 26.1%2004/05 13.3% 4.8% 19.4% 13.0% 1.8% 18.8% 18.8% 5.4% 27.0%

NORTH 2001/02 15.3% 5.0% 21.4% 17.4% 1.7% 12.8% 23.1% 5.3% 24.9%2002/03 16.6% 5.3% 20.6% 14.5% 2.2% 13.3% 22.2% 5.8% 24.3%2003/04 14.2% 5.1% 21.3% 13.8% 1.8% 14.4% 20.7% 5.4% 25.7%2004/05 14.9% 5.4% 20.4% 13.9% 2.2% 16.8% 20.5% 6.1% 26.2%

SCENT 2001/02 9.3% 4.6% 15.6% 9.9% 1.3% 12.5% 13.8% 4.8% 21.1%2002/03 9.7% 4.5% 13.8% 8.4% 1.5% 13.3% 13.1% 4.7% 19.8%2003/04 8.6% 4.5% 14.5% 8.3% 1.3% 13.3% 12.4% 4.7% 20.4%2004/05 8.8% 4.4% 12.5% 8.2% 1.3% 15.3% 12.4% 4.6% 19.7%

SOUTH 2001/02 7.6% 4.2% 14.1% 11.2% 1.0% 21.1% 13.9% 4.3% 26.2%2002/03 8.6% 4.2% 13.7% 10.6% 1.0% 22.9% 13.8% 4.4% 26.9%2003/04 7.4% 4.2% 13.9% 9.2% 1.0% 21.6% 12.2% 4.3% 25.4%2004/05 7.7% 4.3% 12.3% 8.9% 1.2% 24.2% 12.3% 4.5% 27.1%

WEST 2001/02 14.1% 6.8% 21.0% 16.2% 2.5% 14.7% 21.8% 7.3% 26.4%2002/03 14.8% 6.9% 20.0% 14.9% 2.3% 14.8% 21.3% 7.3% 25.8%2003/04 13.5% 6.9% 19.9% 14.5% 2.4% 16.7% 21.2% 7.4% 26.5%2004/05 14.5% 7.3% 19.1% 15.2% 3.4% 19.1% 21.6% 8.2% 27.1%

42

BUSINESS LOAD FACTOR DYNAMIC ASSIGNMENT ISSUES

Presented by ERCOT Staff to

Profiling Working Group

09/29/2005

43

BUSINESS LOAD FACTOR DYNAMIC ASSIGNMENT ISSUES

• Load Factor is calculated for assignment year (e.g. May 2004 – April 2005)

• Transactions to change Profile Type are submitted in October and applied for next 12 months

• Year-to-year, season-to-season and month-to-month Load Factors can be out of sync with actual use

• For example, a high Load Factor monthly read can be settled with a low Load Factor Profile

44

PROFILE ID ASSIGNMENT LAGESIID PROFILE TYPES OUT OF PHASE

PROFILE ASSIGNMENT

2002 2003 2004 ESIIDsWRONG

2003WRONG

2004RIGHT BOTH

YEARSWRONG ONE

YEARWRONG TWO

YEARS

BUSHILF BUSHILF BUSHILF 14,825 0 0 14,825 0 0BUSMEDLF BUSHILF BUSHILF 2,855 2,855 0 0 2,855 0BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF BUSHILF 2,695 0 2,695 0 2,695 0BUSHILF BUSMEDLF BUSHILF 1,255 1,255 1,255 0 0 1,255BUSLOLF BUSHILF BUSHILF 286 286 0 0 286 0BUSLOLF BUSLOLF BUSHILF 270 0 270 0 270 0BUSLOLF BUSHILF BUSHILF 215 215 0 0 215 0BUSMEDLF BUSLOLF BUSHILF 104 104 104 0 0 104BUSHILF BUSLOLF BUSHILF 50 50 50 0 0 50

BUSHILF TOTAL 22,555 4,765 4,374 14,825 6,321 1,40921.1% 19.4% 65.7% 28.0% 6.2%

BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF 43,665 0 0 43,665 0 0BUSLODLF BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF 6,121 6,121 0 0 6,121 0BUSLODLF BUSLODLF BUSMEDLF 5,709 0 5,709 0 5,709 0BUSMEDLF BUSLODLF BUSMEDLF 2,683 2,683 2,683 0 0 2,683BUSHILF BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF 2,394 2,394 0 0 2,394 0BUSHILF BUSHILF BUSMEDLF 2,185 0 2,185 0 2,185 0BUSMEDLF BUSHILF BUSMEDLF 1,873 1,873 1,873 0 0 1,873BUSLOLF BUSHILF BUSMEDLF 144 144 144 0 0 144BUSHILF BUSLOLF BUSMEDLF 128 128 128 0 0 128

BUSMEDLF TOTAL 64,902 13,343 12,722 43,665 16,409 4,82820.6% 19.6% 67.3% 25.3% 7.4%

BUSLOLF BUSLOLF BUSLOLF 164,232 0 0 164,232 0 0BUSMEDLF BUSLOLF BUSLOLF 6,090 6,090 0 0 6,090 0BUSMEDLF BUSMEDLF BUSLOLF 5,157 0 5,157 0 5,157 0BUSLOLF BUSMEDLF BUSLOLF 3,829 3,829 3,829 0 0 3,829BUSHILF BUSLOLF BUSLOLF 412 412 0 0 412 0BUSHILF BUSMEDLF BUSLOLF 377 377 377 0 0 377BUSHILF BUSHILF BUSLOLF 236 0 236 0 236 0BUSLOLF BUSHILF BUSLOLF 200 200 200 0 0 200BUSMEDLF BUSHILF BUSLOLF 146 146 146 0 0 146

BUSLOLF TOTAL 180,679 11,054 9,945 164,232 11,895 4,5526.1% 5.5% 90.9% 6.6% 2.5%

TOTAL 268,136 29,162 27,041 222,722 34,625 10,78910.9% 10.1% 83.1% 12.9% 4.0%

Note: table is based on ESIIDs with complete data for all three years

Because of the assignment lag, we discover during Annual Validation that, for some ESIIDs, the previous assignment is inconsistent with actual use during the year for which the previous assignment was used in settlement

45

MONTHLY READS AND ANNUAL USE BYASSIGNED PROFILE TYPE VS MONTHLY LOAD FACTOR

PERCENT OF MONTHLY READS PRECENT OF ANNUAL KWH

LOAD FACTOR CATEGORY LOAD FACTOR CATEGORYTDSP ASSIGNED PROFILE TYPE LOW MEDIUM HIGH LOW MEDIUM HIGH

AEPC BUSLOLF 88.5% 9.9% 1.6% 78.9% 18.9% 2.2%BUSMEDLF 42.4% 44.7% 12.9% 14.3% 62.3% 23.4%BUSHILF 4.2% 17.2% 78.6% 0.6% 13.3% 86.1%

PERCENT CORRECT 74.3% 74.3%

AEPN BUSLOLF 88.4% 9.0% 2.6% 80.5% 17.0% 2.5%BUSMEDLF 40.4% 44.3% 15.3% 14.5% 66.1% 19.4%BUSHILF 5.1% 15.0% 79.9% 0.7% 13.8% 85.5%


CNP BUSLOLF 87.4% 11.0% 1.6% 78.4% 19.0% 2.6%BUSMEDLF 36.3% 49.6% 14.1% 15.5% 63.8% 20.7%BUSHILF 6.0% 22.1% 71.9% 1.2% 17.7% 81.1%


NUE BUSLOLF 98.8% 1.2% 0.0% 97.1% 2.9% 0.0%BUSMEDLF 22.6% 71.8% 5.6% 20.2% 77.5% 2.3%BUSHILF 0.0% 10.7% 89.3% 0.0% 8.9% 91.1%


SHRY BUSLOLF 57.8% 25.8% 16.4% 59.6% 30.2% 10.1%BUSMEDLF 35.0% 32.4% 32.6% 16.0% 38.0% 46.1%BUSHILF 8.8% 9.8% 81.4% 2.0% 4.0% 94.0%


TED BUSLOLF 90.2% 9.0% 0.8% 81.3% 17.3% 1.4%BUSMEDLF 36.5% 52.3% 11.2% 13.3% 67.3% 19.4%BUSHILF 3.7% 20.4% 75.9% 0.6% 13.4% 86.1%


TNMP BUSLOLF 89.6% 8.9% 1.5% 80.0% 18.2% 1.8%BUSMEDLF 39.5% 45.2% 15.3% 15.0% 60.4% 24.5%BUSHILF 5.5% 19.8% 74.7% 0.8% 12.5% 86.6%


TOTAL BUSLOLF 89.1% 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 0.0% 0.0%BUSMEDLF 37.7% 49.6% 12.7% 14.3% 65.1% 20.7%BUSHILF 4.6% 20.1% 75.2% 0.8% 14.6% 84.5%


ERCOT receives monthly kWh and kW reads from TDSPs indicate a monthly load factor … these can be inconsistent with the Profile Assignment

46

PERCENT OF ESIIDs WITH"MISS-PROFILED" READS

NUMBER OF "MISS-PROFILED" READS

TDSP ASSIGNED PROFILE TYPE 0 1 2 - 3 4 - 5 6 - 10 >10

AEPC BUSLOLF 58.5% 11.0% 11.5% 7.7% 9.5% 1.8%BUSMEDLF 5.3% 6.0% 13.8% 15.2% 32.9% 26.7%BUSHILF 28.2% 16.1% 19.7% 13.8% 17.8% 4.3%TOTAL 40.0% 9.8% 12.7% 10.4% 17.3% 9.7%

AEPN BUSLOLF 60.7% 10.4% 10.7% 7.2% 8.1% 3.0%BUSMEDLF 6.4% 8.1% 15.8% 13.8% 30.2% 25.7%BUSHILF 31.0% 15.2% 19.3% 14.2% 16.7% 3.7%TOTAL 39.5% 10.1% 13.2% 10.1% 16.4% 10.8%

CNP BUSLOLF 54.2% 12.5% 11.7% 8.3% 11.4% 1.9%BUSMEDLF 5.5% 7.2% 14.5% 15.3% 34.1% 23.4%BUSHILF 25.4% 11.2% 15.7% 14.2% 24.3% 9.1%TOTAL 33.2% 10.4% 13.1% 11.5% 21.1% 10.7%

NUE BUSLOLF 83.3% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%BUSMEDLF 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 20.0% 0.1%BUSHILF 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%TOTAL 46.2% 15.4% 7.7% 23.1% 7.7% 0.1%

SHRY BUSLOLF 10.3% 20.7% 13.8% 5.2% 24.1% 25.9%BUSMEDLF 5.4% 7.5% 14.0% 18.3% 30.1% 24.7%BUSHILF 21.4% 42.9% 7.1% 14.3% 7.1% 7.1%TOTAL 8.4% 14.9% 13.3% 13.7% 26.2% 23.6%

TED BUSLOLF 62.2% 10.2% 10.9% 8.2% 7.4% 1.2%BUSMEDLF 8.4% 8.4% 15.1% 15.8% 31.1% 21.2%BUSHILF 27.8% 13.8% 17.8% 13.3% 21.5% 5.8%TOTAL 41.3% 9.9% 12.8% 11.2% 16.5% 8.3%

TNMP BUSLOLF 61.9% 10.9% 9.9% 7.2% 8.3% 1.8%BUSMEDLF 4.8% 5.9% 13.4% 14.4% 33.5% 27.9%BUSHILF 24.4% 13.1% 20.9% 14.7% 20.6% 6.3%TOTAL 41.0% 9.5% 11.8% 10.0% 17.2% 10.4%

TOTAL BUSLOLF 59.4% 11.0% 11.1% 8.0% 8.9% 1.6%BUSMEDLF 6.8% 7.5% 14.7% 15.4% 32.4% 23.2%BUSHILF 27.1% 13.4% 17.7% 13.8% 21.5% 6.5%TOTAL 38.8% 10.0% 12.8% 11.0% 17.9% 9.4%

The majority of ESIIDs have one or more monthly reads which are inconsistent with the Profile Assignment

Documents

Residential Annual Validation Suspension Update