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Residential Survey Task Force. Update to RMS July 13, 2005. Survey Objectives. Develop a more accurate algorithm to predict the presence and use of electric heat for residential customers. Algorithm inputs are premise level historical usage and weather zone - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Residential Survey Task Force
Update to RMS
July 13, 2005
Survey Objectives Develop a more accurate algorithm to predict the
presence and use of electric heat for residential customers.
Algorithm inputs are premise level historical usage and weather zone
Algorithm output is probability of having electric heat
Collect data to support analysis to potentially develop new profile types
Two-Phased Survey Approach
Phase 1: Pilot mail survey to 1,000 customers, equally distributed across all weather zones
Estimate response rate for phase 2 Assess response accuracy
Phase 2: Full mail survey Go/No-Go decision based on pilot responses
Evaluate accuracy based on usage history Analyze response rate to determine sample size required
to achieve statistically significant results Ensure the budget supports the required sample size
Draw sample based on pilot response rate results
Survey Administration Reducing Customer Confusion
Bilingual (English/Spanish) versions ERCOT supported 24-hour, bilingual, toll-free telephone number ERCOT supported web page containing ERCOT background, survey question
details, toll-free telephone number, and “Frequently Asked Questions” (FAQs)
Minimizing Call Center Impacts Cover letter will refer customer questions/concerns to toll-free number FAQs will be provided to REPs to be used as training materials for the call
centers
Improving Response Rate Postage-paid return envelope ERCOT purchased customer name associated with address information
Correlating ESI-ID to Response Bar-coded survey form linking ESI-ID to response
Survey Update Completed:
Approval of Survey at May TAC meeting. Bilingual versions of the cover letter and survey. ERCOT website posted. Procurement activities with the firm to provide names
for sampled addresses. Procurement activities with selected Market Research
firm. Survey population (stratified by profile type and weather
zone) has been identified and addresses are being validated against databases.
Code development to validate responses regarding heating type.
Survey mailed out on June 9, with responses by July 7.
Survey Response Review
Wzone Profile Type mailed returned % returned % by WzoneCOAST RESHIWR 63 1 1.59%
RESLOWR 62 4 6.45% 4.00%
EAST RESHIWR 63 11 17.46%RESLOWR 62 7 11.29% 14.40%
FWEST RESHIWR 63 2 3.17%RESLOWR 62 11 17.74% 10.40%
NCENT RESHIWR 63 3 4.76%RESLOWR 62 7 11.29% 8.00%
NORTH RESHIWR 63 10 15.87%RESLOWR 62 12 19.35% 17.60%
SCENT RESHIWR 63 8 12.70%RESLOWR 62 6 9.68% 11.20%
SOUTH RESHIWR 63 5 7.94%RESLOWR 62 3 4.84% 6.40%
WEST RESHIWR 63 8 12.70%RESLOWR 62 7 11.29% 12.00%
total 1,000 105 10.50%
Pilot Survey Forms Returned as of July 2, 2005
Survey Response Review Responses to question #2 (primary heating system)
84% accurate response to electric vs. gas heat based on multi-year consumption analysis
Response breakdown: 53 Electricity 50 Natural or bottle gas 1 Invalid 1 Other or not sure
Zero (0) phone inquiries to contact number provided.
8.8% overall valid response rate
Go/No-Go Evaluation Criteria Evaluate accuracy based on usage history
84% accurate response to electric vs. gas heat based on multi-year consumption analysis
Analyze response rate to determine sample size required to achieve statistically significant results
8.8% overall valid response rate 40,000 surveys to be mailed, equally stratified by
profile type and weather zone
Ensure the budget supports the required sample size
Remaining budget supports additional 40,000 surveys
Projected Residential Survey Timeline
Conduct Pilot Survey
RSTF/RMS Review
TAC Review
Conduct Full Survey
Responses provided to ERCOT
ERCOT analysis of survey responses
PWG review of analysis
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
RSTF Recommendation
Recommend approval of the full mail survey and move the resolution forward to TAC for approval Unanimous approval by RSTF