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Resilient Systems EngineeringResilient Systems Engineering
Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION
bybyJack RingJack Ring
CTO, Educe LLCCTO, Educe LLCFellow, INCOSEFellow, INCOSE
1/24/11 1
Resilient Systems EngineeringResilient Systems Engineering
Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION
bybyJack RingJack Ring
CTO, Educe LLCCTO, Educe LLCFellow, INCOSEFellow, INCOSE
1/24/11 2
You don’t know Jack?You don’t know Jack?• 1957 – 2010. • System Test & Evaluation. • System Engineering. • Object technology, 1971.• Action research, intelligent enterprises. • Enterprise architect, Starshine Planet, world-wide youth education in
mind, body, spirit, heath and wealth.• Tutorials: INCOSE 1994, 2001, 2003, 2005, IL 2005.• Member: INCOSE (Fellow), ISSS, IEEE SMC, ACM, etc• Co-chair, INCOSE WG’s for
– Autonomous Systems T&E, 2009 -– Motor Sports as learning environment, 2008 -– Intelligent Enterprises, 2002 – 2007
• Member, Kennen Technologies LLC, OntoPilot LLC, Educe LLC
1/24/11 3©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
In the next 45 minutes ---In the next 45 minutes ---Me @ 50%, You @ 50%Me @ 50%, You @ 50%
1/24/11 4©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient System Resilient System Stress vs. StrainStress vs. Strain
1/24/11 5©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient: Replace Resilient: Replace circa 1920circa 1920
Upper airplane lost one of its wheels. Gladys Ingles installing
a replacement wheel in flight .
She transfers from wing to wing. Expertly works herself down to the undercarriage only a few feet from a spinning prop .
She installs the wheel then stands on the wing of the repaired plane to a successful landing .
:// . 365. / 365_ . ? =1235http www oshkosh org ok DiscussionBoardTopic aspx id &bo=147 =180 =5584ardid &forumid &topicid
With the replacement wheel strapped to her back she rides the wing of a rescue plane to the plane that lacks the wheel.
1/24/11 6
Current Views, con’t.Current Views, con’t.
• J. Fiksel – Dow Chemical Corp. “… the capacity to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of turbulent change – Key elements of resilience include capable employees, an agile supply chain, effective decision processes, and strong external relationships.
1/24/11 9©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Semiotics of SystemsSemiotics of Systemse = entity
= relation
e e = ‘system’
e
ee= ‘system’ (explicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (implicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (soft)
1/24/11 13©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Semiotics of SystemsSemiotics of Systemse = entity
= relation
e e = ‘system’
e
ee= ‘system’ (explicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (implicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (soft)
= behavior = π
e
eeRS
S = Stimulus, R = Response
System DoesSystem Does
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
14
Semiotics of SystemsSemiotics of Systemse = entity
= relation
e e = ‘system’
e
ee= ‘system’ (explicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (implicit)
e
ee= ‘system’ (soft)
e =
e
eeEntity can contain a system
e
ee
e
e
e
eee
System of Systems(promulgates ambiguity)
= behavior = π
e
eeRS
S = Stimulus, R = Response
System DoesSystem Does
1/24/11 15©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
A Goal
Action Triggers
Energy
Competency
Situation
Closure, G-S
GS System
OUTPUTS
Response
Status Reports
Learning
Goal AttainmentSensitivity to DisturbanceStability Limits
MeasuresCulture
Business ClimateCompeting Goals
Situation
INPUTS
Request
Resources
Time
Disturbances
Resilient System Meta-modelResilient System Meta-model
1/24/11 16©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
A Goal
Action Triggers
Energy
Competency
Situation
Closure, G-S
GS System
OUTPUTS
Response
Status Reports
Learning
Goal AttainmentSensitivity to DisturbanceStability Limits
MeasuresCulture
Business ClimateCompeting Goals
Situation
INPUTS
Request
Resources
Time
Disturbances
Resilient System Meta-modelResilient System Meta-model
1/24/11 17©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
18
Closure Metrics Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, ParsimonyRange, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony
Time
Step ChangeGoal
B
A
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
19
Closure Metrics Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, ParsimonyRange, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony
Time
Step ChangeGoal
B
A
EnterpriseResponse
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
20
Closure Metrics Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, ParsimonyRange, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony
Time
Step ChangeGoal
B
A
EnterpriseResponse
Next Change
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient Systems Example CategoriesResilient Systems Example Categories
OutIn
Situation
Pr = Problem SpaceVal = Value SpaceS = StimulusR = ResponseSit = Situationπ = System Transfer
Function
1/24/11 21©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient Systems Example CategoriesResilient Systems Example Categories
ProblemSpace
Class
Typef(t)
ValueSpace
ClassType
f(t)OutIn
Situation
Pr = Problem SpaceVal = Value SpaceS = StimulusR = ResponseSit = Situationπ = System Transfer
Function
1/24/11 22©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient Systems Example CategoriesResilient Systems Example Categories
ProblemSpace
Class
Typef(t)
ValueSpace
ClassType
f(t)OutIn
Situation
Pr = Problem SpaceVal = Value SpaceS = StimulusR = ResponseSit = Situationπ = System Transfer
Function
Value
ClassType
π
1/24/11 23©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient Systems Example CategoriesResilient Systems Example Categories
π = f(k) = ballistic
π = f(O) = governor
π = f(I) = compensator
π = f(π) = self-test, auto repair
π = f(Sit, O) = homeostatic
π = f(Val) = goal-seeking
π = f(Pr) = self-organizing
π = f(Pr, Val) = autopoietic
π = f(all) = autocatalytic
ProblemSpace
Class
Typef(t)
ValueSpace
ClassType
f(t)OutIn
Situation
Pr = Problem SpaceVal = Value SpaceS = StimulusR = ResponseSit = Situationπ = System Transfer
Function
Value
ClassType
π
1/24/11 24©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Resilient System Engineering PraxisResilient System Engineering Praxis
1/24/11 25©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
System Context
System1.
Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield
The Essence of Creating SystemsThe Essence of Creating Systems
1/24/11 26©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
System Context
System1.
Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield
ProblemSuppression
System2.
Problem System;Content, Process,Behavior
The Essence of Creating SystemsThe Essence of Creating Systems
1/24/11 27©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
System Context
System1.
Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield
Problem SuppressionSystem: Content3.
ProblemSuppression
System2.
Problem System;Content, Process,Behavior
The Essence of Creating SystemsThe Essence of Creating Systems
1/24/11 28©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
System Context
System1.
Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield
Problem SuppressionSystem: Content3.
Problem Suppression System: Content, Process, Behavior
4.t1
t2
t3
ProblemSuppression
System2.
Problem System;Content, Process,Behavior
The Essence of Creating SystemsThe Essence of Creating Systems
1/24/11 29©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
30
Problematic Situation DimensionsProblematic Situation Dimensions
Extent
Variety
Ambiguity
Low Med High
State-determined
Stochastic
Non-deterministic
‘Wicked’ Problems
Extent: # of cognatesVariety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporalAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload
Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
31
Problematic Situation DimensionsProblematic Situation Dimensions
Extent
Variety
Ambiguity
Low Med High
State-determined
Stochastic
Non-deterministic
‘Wicked’ Problems
Extent: # of cognatesVariety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporalAmbiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload
Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ
1/24/11©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
MTTE(K) = 10 yrMTTE(K) = 10 yr 1 yr 1 yr 0.1 yr 0.1 yr
MTTE = Mean Time To Emergence, K = Knowledge
System Engineering ContributionsSystem Engineering Contributions
• Language the Project• Model the Intended System
(including Closure > Variety & Ambiguity)
• Converge Creativity to (design) Closure
1/24/11 33©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
SystemEngineering
EngineeringOf Systems
Worth of SE ContributionsWorth of SE Contributions
Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161
ProblematicSituation
SystemsEngineering
EngineeringOf SystemsM(PSys)
SCI = XError = Φ
M(PSS)SCI = X/K1
Error = Φ/K2
1/24/11 34©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Worth of SE ContributionsWorth of SE Contributions
SCI = (N/7) (V/5) (K/10) = (1/350) NVKWhere: N is Miller Index, V is Spreadthink index and K = DeMorgan index
Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161
SCI > X(i) indicates M(PSS) Not Ready for Engineering (i)
ProblematicSituation
SystemsEngineering
EngineeringOf SystemsM(PSys)
SCI = XError = Φ
M(PSS)SCI = X/K1
Error = Φ/K2
e.g., Warfield’s Situation Complexity Index
1/24/11 35©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Raise your hand for the ideal Associate ---Raise your hand for the ideal Associate ---
What kind of SE What kind of SE should we be?should we be?
Clings to Clings to
mental model. mental model.
Co-evolves to Co-evolves to
fit the situation.fit the situation.
___ autocatalytic
___ autopoietic,
___ self-organizing,
___ goal-seeking,
___ homeostatic,
___ self-test and repair
___ compensator,
___ governor,
___ ballistic, 1/24/11 38
©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
1/24/11 39
1: Competency in Language of SE 1: Competency in Language of SE
“We (animals having a frontal lobe) started using our language for reasoning before we learned to use our language for the purpose of communicating with one another. …The correct use of propositions and chains of propositions is critical to appropriate adult behavior.”“Language and Human Behavior,” Prof. Derek Bickerton, U. of Washington Press, 1995,
Human language and knowledge is:
Extensible in both facts and propositions, apparently without limit.
The source of our unique, powerful abilities of abstraction, imagination, synthesis and prescription.
©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Linear, Associative, Janusian, Hegelian, ?
1/24/11 41
2. Relationships Pattern: EDAC 2. Relationships Pattern: EDAC
Passes completed < 80%, Goals/Shots on Goal < 1/7
2. Relationships Pattern: Chaordic?2. Relationships Pattern: Chaordic?
1/24/11
10,000 hours N Error Detections and Corrections
42©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
25%
50%
75%
100%
5 10 15 20
Size of Workgroup
Encouraging, Admonishing
Anxious,Insincere
Critical,Destructive
Interpersonal style isdominant factor with 5X leverage onachievement
UnexploredTerritoryof the IntelligentEnterprise
Per
cen
t A
chie
vem
ent
3. Objective vs. Team Player?3. Objective vs. Team Player?(highly simplified)(highly simplified)
Workgroup Efficiency Limit
©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Adapted from Amity and Enmity, R. Starkermann43
PSE’s Interact as
2nd Order, Implicit Systems
UnconsciousConscious
Self realization goals
Will Powers
disturbances
“Amity and Enmity” by R. Starkerman [email protected] ISBN 3-908730-29-5 Fig. V-9
44
Frances Ford CoppolaFrances Ford CoppolaCinema Director Cinema Director
“The secret to making a good movie is -- getting everyone to make the same movie.”
1/24/11 45©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
4. Closure (G-S) Rules for System Engineering4. Closure (G-S) Rules for System Engineering
Within Dynamic and Integrity LimitsX, d(X)/dt, d2(X)/dt2
•Thermodynamics: mass, momentum and energy•Informatics: data, information and knowledge •Teleonomics: skills, rate of learning, and rate of invention •Human social dynamics: trust, enthusiasm, co-evolution•Economic: Investment, ROI, Liquidity •Ecology: Waste, Fads, Unintended Consequences
Adjust: Gradients on relationshipsArrange: Pattern of relationshipsCo-align: Content of system with context constraints.
9/15/10 46©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
System ActionsObserveOrientDecideAct
See also ---See also ---
1/24/11 47
Observe --- Orient --- Decide --- Act(Col. John Boyd cycle)
Plan --- Do --- Check --- Adjust(Shewhart cycle)
Plan --- Do --- Check --- Act(Deming cycle)
Double Loop Learning(Argyris & Schon)
Second order cybernetics(von Foerster, et al)
5. The Reflective Practitioner5. The Reflective PractitionerFour ascending levels of behavior:
1. Know how. 2. Reflection -- on how 'know how' was applied. 3. Knowing-in-action (devising while doing) 4. Reflection-in-action.
A Practitioner must have two kinds of knowing:– Objectivist - descriptive– Constructivist – prescriptive - world making
Designing cannot be taught -- but can be coachedDesigning: knowledge-in-action, holistic, honors unspecified (unspecifiable?) design qualities (aesthetics)
Methods of Coaching The Reflective Practitioner– Joint experimentation, – Follow Me!– Hall of Mirrors
Educating the Reflective Practitioner, Donald Schon, Jossey Bass, 19871/24/11 48
©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Take-aways?Take-aways?
• System IS, DOES, KNOWS (some even LEARN!). • Problem Systems, Problem Suppression Systems, Gestation
Systems (SE and EofS)• At least 9 categories of resilient systems.• SE, a gestation system, reduces EVA for the E of S cadre
• By people, • Pursuing MOE’s @ standard of care by requisite variety.• Achieving knowledge exchange and choice making• Using coherent language, appropriate interpersonal style,
and proactive, mutual error detection and correction.
1/24/11 49©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!
Clarifications?Clarifications?
1/24/11 50©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
The castle, Hawkins, besiege the castle!castle!
Thank YouThank You
Clarifications?Clarifications?
1/24/11 51©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted
Further ReadingFurther Reading
Jackson, S., Architecting Resilient Systems: Accident Avoidance and Survival and Recovery from Disruptions, John Wiley and Sons.
The Infrastructure Security Partnership (TISP) (www.tisp.org)international Resilience Engineering Network. www.resilience-engineering.org
Hollnagel, E., D. Woods, N. Leveson Resilience Engineering: Concepts and Precepts, Ashgate Publishing Limited
Fiksel, J., Design for Environment: A Guide to Sustainable Product Development, was published by McGraw-Hill in 2009.
Gunderson, L. H. 2000 ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - IN THEORY AND APPLICATION Annual Review of Ecology & Systematics, 31: 425
Sobel-Lojeski, K., Reilly, R., Uniting the Virtual Workforce, Wiley, 2008 Sobel-Lojeski, K., Leading the Virtual Workforce, Wiley, 2009Dove, Rick, Response Ability: the language, structure and culture of the agile
enterprise, Wiley, 2001. Ring, J. (ed) About Intelligent Enterprises, a collection of knowledge claims,
INCOSE IS07 CD.1/24/11 52