RESTRICTED gati covX AE16 FII.~A ~A-I Vol. · 2016-07-11 · RESTRICTED gati covX p AE16 FII.~A ~A-I Vol. 3 This report is for offlcial use only by the Bank Group and specifically

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gati covX AE16FII.~A ~A-I Vol. 3

This report is for offlcial use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizationsor persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. TheBank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or oompleteness of the report.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

IN

EAST AFRICA

VOLUME III - TANZANIA

PART I - A PROGRAM OF PREINVESTMENT STUDIES

PART II - ANNEX: HEALTH AND POPULATION

July 30, 1971

Eastern Africa Department

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THE MISSION

This report is based on the findings of amission which visited Kenya, Tanzania andUganda during November-December 1970. Themission consisted of the following:

J.H. Collier (IBRD) Chief of MissionP. Engelmann (IBRD) Preinvestment AdviserK.G.V. Krishna (IBRD) Chief Economist

J.R. Burrows (IBRD) Economist (Kenya)G.E. Okurume (IBRD) Economist (Uganda)S. Farag (IBRD) Economist (Tanzania)

W. Schaefer-Kehnert (IBRD) Sr. AgriculturalistD.J. Wood (IBRD) Agricultural EconomistJ. Edwards (IBRD) Agricultural Specialist (Kenya)J.P. Dumoulin (IBRD) Agricultural EngineerI. Abushar (Cons.) Crops Specialist (Kenya)N.M. Mutter (Cons.) Crops Specialist (Tanzania)R.K. Ellinger (IBRD-ADS) Agricultural Specialist (Uganda)F. Thornley (IBRD-ADS) Agricultural Specialist (Uganda)R.G. Grimshaw (IBRD) Agricultural Specialist (Tanzania)R.F. McMahon (IBRD) Education SpecialistS.M. Noor (IBRD) Education SpecialistB. Kesic (Cons.) Public Health SpecialistJ. Marchat (WHO) Public Health SpecialistN.R. Fendall (Cons.) Population SpecialistG. Wyatt (IBRD) Power EngineerJ.F. Hurlebaus (IBRD) Water Supply EconomistS.H. Dennis (Cons.) Water Supply EngineerD.H.F. Bickers (IBRD) Transport EconomistF.D.T. Reid (IBRD) Highway EngineerS. Hayden (Cons.) Aviation SpecialistA.J. Hayman (IBRD) Tourism SpecialistA.P. Van Huyck (Cons.) Urban and Housing Specialist

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST AFRICA

VOLUME III: TANZANIA

CONTENTS

Page No.

A NOTE ON PREINVESTMENT STUDY PROGRAMS

PART I - A PROGRAM OF PREINVESTMENT STUDIES

SUMMARY

1 * A ICULTURE .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * e e a e e v v v . .v .o e 1

3. HEALTH AND POPULATION ..................... ¢sv* 46

4. INDUSTRY ................. .. ....0...*.........60

5. TRANSPORTAND ..... ION...........................ee....O. 72

PART II - ANNEX: HEALTH AND POPULATION

(i) Health(ii) Population

A NOTE ON PREINVESTMENT STUDY PROGRAMS

1. The preinvestmant study/1 programs prepared by the 1970 missionfor Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are presented in Volumes II, III and IVrespectively. Those studies which cover more than one country, or theregion as a whole, are presented in Volume V. This note briefly sets outthe objectives and scope of these programs, and explains the approach andmethods used in their preparation.

Objectives and Scope

2. The programs of preinvestment studies presented in this reportare intended to:

(1) assist the Governments of Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda andthe East African Community in defining and schedulingstudies which accord with their development objectives;

(2) provide the UNDP and other agencies with a sound basis forallocating funds for preinvestment assistance in the EastAfrican region; and

(3) accelerate and improve the preparation of development proj-ects in this region, for possible financing by internationalor bilateral lending agencies.

3. The programs consist of recommendations on the priority andscope of proposed studies and, in most cases, estimates of the time andresources required for study execution. These estimates are generally toan accuracy of plus or minus thirty percent.

4. An attempt was made to identify and include in the programs allimportant studies required for investment decisions in the next five years.As a minimum goal, however, the recommended programs are intended to coverall studies that should be started within the next two years.

5. No attempt was made to define all details of the studies proposedin the programs. Further elaboration of study scope and refinement., of thecost estimate will be needed beftre Governments can make formal application

/1 The term "preinvestment study" as used in this report means units of workwhich (a) must be completed prior to investment decisions relating toprojects or sectors significant for national or regional development and(b) will require the assignment of a team of experts or consulting firm(s).The purpose of these studies may be to (1) establish investment priorities,(2) determine the feasibility of individual projects, or (3) definechanges in governmental policies, operations and institutions necessaryfor the successful implementation or functioning of investment projects.

Page 2

to the UNDP (or other development assistance agency) for financing of a

specific study. This additional-work is expected to be done by the Govern-ments or by agencies interested in sponsoring or assisting the studies, as

part of the steps following adoption of the program./l

6. The programs do not include work related to final engineering of

projects, preparation of contract documents for construction or procurement,and more specialized types of studies such as those required to draft legis-lation that would implement reccmmended policy and administrative changes.These activities are considered to be in the "investment" rather than the

"preinvestnent" stage.

Approach and Methods Used

7. Prior to the departure of the 1970 Economic Mission -co East Africa,discussions were held with the Finance and Planning Ministries of Kenya,Tanzania and Uganda, with representatives of the East African Community, andwith the Resident Representatives of the UNDP in each country, on the proposedapproach to preparing preinvestment study programs. These agencies compiledinventories of completed, current and proposed preinvestment studies known tothem. These inventories and supplementary information provided by varioussectoral ministries and bilateral agencies were reviewed and avaluated.

8. Based -h the available information about existing studies and a

general review of development prospects in the major sectors, additional needsfor future studies were identified. In most sectors, the approach to thiswork was as follows:

(1) star ting with a development strategy for the sector as a whole,both the principal investment needs and the policies and insti-tutibnal changes necessary for the development of the sectorwere identified;

(2) where deficiencies in the knowledge of sector problems and re-

sources could be observed, an attempt was made to define theareas where further study is needed to provide a proper basis forinvestment planning;

(3) working back from prospective investments, the studies needed forestablishing project feasibility and the best alternative were

considered; and

(4) based on a review of government operations and of the administra-tive framework in each sector, the advisory services or studies

needed for improving policies, organization, management and per-sonnel training were identified, as required for the successfulexecution of projects.

/1 The World Bank Group will not necessarily be associated with the financ-ing or execution of studies recommended in this report or with the

financing of the investment projects resulting from the studies.

Page 3

9. This resulted in a broad outline of the overall needs for prein-vestment studies in the sectors. These results were discussed with the Fi-nance and Planning MviLnistries, other responsible Government and Communityagencies, the Resident Representative of the UNDP and the participatingspecialized UN organizations. The Mission's exchanges of views with theseagencies fomed the basis for selection of the studies to be included in therecommended program.

10. Outlines were prepared of the scope of the work to be accomplishedby the proposed studies. No attempt was made, however, to define the scopeof studies with the accuracy needed for the actual execution of this work;nor was it considered practical in most cases to make a thorough analysis ofall available data and to evaluate alternative study designs in sufficientdepth to ensure that optimum solutions had been found. Within the timeavailable, preliminary judgements were mada on these subjects, so as toprovide a meaningful basis for the study program. The result at thisstage is merely a "preliminary designt of each of the studies which in-cludes:

(1) a statement of purpose, containing the main questions tobe answered and the development objectives that would beserved;

(2) an indication of the type of detail (or degree of accuracy)expected in the study results;

(3) an outline of main areas of investigation, with a list ofthe important study tasks; and

(4) a general assessment of data availability and of the dif-ficulties likely to be encountered in data collection.

11. Based on this "preliminary design", the probable duration andapproximate cost of most of the studies were estimated. In several casesit was not possible within the time available to make more than an estinateof the broad order of magnitude of study costs. For most of the proposedstudies, however, tentative budgets could be prepared by assessilng thelikely composition of the study team and the approximate number of man-months required in each categocry of staff. Basic information on the recom-mended studies has been summarized on "Study Data Sheets" which are pre-sented at the end of each sectoral chapter in Volumes II, III, IV and V ofthis report.

SUMMARY

1. This volume presents a proposed program of preinvestmentstudies for Tanzania. The program has been prepared by the Bankmission, in cooperation with the Ministry of Finance, the Ministryof Planning, the planning units of various other ministries of theGovernment of Tanzania, the Resident Office of the UNDP in Dar esSalaam, and several specialized agencies of the United Nations./lIn addition, the mission was assisted in its work by the East Afri-can Community, by the staff of several bilateral aid agencies, andby private and autonomous organizations in Tanzania.

2. This volume contains the program of preinvestment studieswhich relate to Tanzania alone./2 It comprises 30 studies whichare considered to be of high priority for the country's development;their total cost is expected to be in the order of US$7.8 millionequivalent.

3. Total investments in Tanzania, which may be initiated overthe next decade on the basis of these proposed studies, could rangein the order of US$l1O million equivalent. An important part of theproposed program, however, deals with institutional problems andwith the planning aspects of sectoral or regional development. Whilesuch studies may not cover specific projects, their execution is con-sidered to be of high priority as a prerequisite for future project

implementation. The sectoral classification of the proposed studiesand their suggested timing are given in the following tabulation:

/1 In particular, FAO, WHO and UNESCO.

/2 In addition to the studies presented in this volume, eight stud-ies that would affect Tanzania are presented in Volume V ofthis report on "Regional Preinvestment Studies".

- ii -

Summary of Recommended Preinvestment Study Program in Tanzania

TotalNumber of Proposed Studies Number of

andPgeted Starting Year/a ProposedSector FY71-2 FY72-3 Studies

1. Agriculture 10 5 152. Education & Training - 3 33. Health & Population 3 2 54. Industry 4 1 55. Powert - - -6. Water Supply- --7. Telecommxuications/cC8. Transporation 1 1 29. Tourismn-..

10. Urban Development & Housing b - _

Total: 18 12 30

a mThe suggested starting year is the fiscal year in which fieldworkfor the proposed studies should coirmence. The fiscal year inTanzania starts on July 1 and ends on June 30.

/b These sectors are to be covered at a later stage.7' A brief resume of this sector is included in Volume V. No specific

preinvestment studies are required in this sector.

4. Each chapter in this volume corntains a brief discussion on thebackground and key issues of the sectors, together with an explanationof the rationale for the proposed studies. In most Instances, the textsrefer to previous Bank reports in which a more detailed discussion ofthe sectors can be found, but for health and population, detailed discus-sions are included in the annex...* to this volume.

5. The text of each chapter is followed by (1) a list of all stud-ies proposed in the sector, and (2) Study Data Sheets which provide anoutline of the studies' purpose, scope, timing and related data; in mostinstances, information is provided on the recommended staffing and tenta-tive budget for the studies. Notations have also been made of the inter-est expressed by potential sponsors of the studies, but only wihen themission had specific information on this subject from the sponsoringagency. In general, it is expected that decisions on sources of financingfor the studies will be made after the program as a whole has been reviewedby the Government.

6. While all studies in the recommended program are considered tobe of high priority, the mission has indicated sixteen studies which it

- iii -

believes to be of greatest importance to the future economic and socialdevelopment of Tanzania; these studies are designated by (*) in thelists followiing the introduction to each chapter.

1. In the course of preparing this program, many study proposalswere considered but not included. Judgments made in selecting the stud-.ies were based in part on an assessment of the capacity of agenciesresponsible for administering and financing preinvestment work and onthe resources believed to be available for implementing projects. Thesejudgments slhould be subject to periodic review. If it is found that therecommended program does not fully utilize the capacities of responsibleaigencies and the available resources, additional preinvestment studiesmay be considered for inclusion in the program. If it is found, on theother hand, that these capacities and resources have been overestimated,the size of the orogram should be reduced. In the latter case,the studies designated (*) should be the last to be postponed or deleted.

CHAPTER 1

AGRICULTURE

Background and Key Issues of the Agricultural Sector

1. The Bank's 1970 Economic Report,/l which contains a generalcliscussion of the agricultural sector of Tanzania, indicates that theperformance of this sector during the period 1960-68 was impressive, butuneven. The volume and value of production of flue-cured tobacco, cash-ewnuts, pyrethrum, sugar and food grains rose substantially. On thecther hand, the overall rate of growth of the agricultural sector wasadversely affected by the steep fall in the price of sisal, quota restric-tions on coffee exports, and lower prices for tea. Cotton production,which had risen rapidly in the early sixties, had subsequently declined.The size of the national herd had increased, and consumption of meat inrural areas had increased, but off-take at official markets had been dis-appointing.

2. The Second Five-Year Plan (1969-74) emphasizes the importanceof rural development. Increased production is planned for the majorityof crops, to be achieved largely from smallholdings, grouped, whereverpossible, in communal activity. Priority is given to increasing produc-tion of export crops with good market prospects, including cotton, flue-cured tobacco, cashewnuts and tea. In addition, self-sufficiency in foodgrains is a major objective of the development program.

3. It is noted in the Bank report that the institutional arrange-ments for planning are, in general, satisfactory and that most of theproduction targets are feasible. Targets for tea and tobacco might evenbes exceeded. Programs for a number of other crops, including cotton,resquire more detailed planning, and it is doubtful if it is economicallysound to attempt to attain self-sufficiency in soft wheat production.For livestock development, a well-defined strategy and integrated approachare required to realize the considerable potential which exists. Overall,the most important determinant of the success of the agricultural programwill be the availability of trained and experienced manpower.

Proposed Preinvestment Studies

4. Of the total investment proposed in the Second Five-Year Plan,the agricultural sector accounts for Sh 1,831 million (US$261 million),or 23 percent. For a number of high-priority projects, including cotton,tea, tobacco, food grains and sugar, planned investments are alreadycovered by ongoing preinvestment and feasibility studies. These are notincluded in the attached list of proposed studies.

/1 Report N[o. AE-7: "The Economic Development and Prospects of Tanzania,"March 17, 1970.

5. Out of a total of fifteen preinvestment studies recommended forthe agricultural sector, eight are in the field of crop production. Fourof these cover development programs for the horticultural, sisal, pyrethrumand oilseeds industries (1-1, 1-2, 1-5 and 1-7). Historic data are avail-able on production and market outlets, and a number of ad hoc studies havebeen conducted in recent years. A thorough review of the current situationand demand forecasts by multidisciplinary teams of specialists are now re-quired. In addition, development projects should be formulated, includingdetailed recommendations for phased implementation. Three studies forcashewnuts, grain crops and cotton (1-6, 1-8, and 1-10) are concerned main-ly with storage and transport problems from farm to processing factory orcentral storage points. These studies are complementary to a number ofongoing development projects. One study proposed for the wet-processingof Arabica coffee from cherry to parchment (1-9) is concerned with quali-ty in relation to market requirements, and includes an analysis of theoperation of existing processing stations.

6. Four studies are recammended for the development of the live-stock industry. They are complementary to the planning of a second-phase livestock project, presently prepared by the Ministry of Agricul-ture with Bank assistance. Two of these studies, dealing with the dairy(1-3) and the pig and poultry industries (1-12), should not only resultin an overall program for the development of these industries but alsoin detailed development plans suitable for external financing. The twoother studies deal with regional aspects of cattle development and areclosely related to ongoing studies. The Kitulo Plateau FeasibilityStudy (1-11) is linked to a current UNDP/FAO research program in thatarea, and the Masai range development study (1-14) is designed to expandthe scope of an ongoing USAID project.

7. One study (1-15) deals with comprehensive development plans forthe lower Rufiji area. This study is contingent upon a Government decisionon whether or not to proceed with the construction of the Stiegler's Gorgedam and associated industrial projects. Such a dam would provide hydro-power, flood control, and possibilities for supplementary irrigation overa large area. Investment in a first-stage project covering about 12,500ha. would occur during the period of the Third Five-Year Plan.

8. Finally, two studies recammended for the forestry sub-sectorare intended to exploit the good potential which exists for the develop-ment of hard and soft wood industries. The study concerned with softwood (1-4) will investigate the possibilities of sawn timber, wood pulpand wood fuel production and, if feasible, prepare an investment projectcovering both forest plantations and related processing industries. Thestudy concerned with hard wood (1-13) has to await the outcome of aforest inventory study presently being carried-out with Canadian assist-ance.

-3 -

9. In the fisheries sub-sector, Tanzania will benefit from theproposed Lake Victoria commercial fish stocks assessment (see Study 1-2,Volume V, "A Program of Regional Preinvestment Studiest),which isrelated to an ongoing study on possible investments in commercial fishingand fish meal production on Lake Victoria, being carried out under aUNDP/FAO project. Further studies in the fisheries sector are not con-sidered necessary at this stage, as investments foreseen in the currentPlan are alxeady under study, and future investments will largely dependon the outcome of long-term research and training programs.

10. A number of other possible studies were examined in the courseof the mission but were not included in the final list of recommendedstudies because they were either properly covered under existing multi-lateral and bilateral assistance agreements, or were not considered to beof sufficient priority to be undertaken in the foreseeable future, orwould have overtaxed locally available skilled manpower and financial re-sources.

Suggested Estimated EstimatedStudy Starting Duration Cost

No. Na of Proposed_Stuy Year in Months (U$ millions)

(*) 1-1 Horticultural Development FY71-2 10 0.15

(*) 1-2 Sisal Diversification FY71-2 9 0.19

(*) 1-3 National Dairy Develop- FY71-2 9 O.l5ment

(*) 1-4 Forest Industry Develop- FY71-2 12 0.24ment (soft wood)

1-5 Pyrethrum Industry FY71-2 8 0.10

1-6 Cashewnut Industry FY71-2 18 0.13

1-7 Oilseeds Industry FY72-3 10 0.20

1-8 Grain Crops Storage and FY71-2 4 0.06Handling (Farm to Mill/Silo)

1-9 Coffee Pulperies FY71-2 4 0.09Development

1-10 Seed Cotton Handling FY72-3 4 0.06

(- 1-11 Kitulo Plateau Feasi- FY71-2 9-12 0.18bility Study

(*) 1-12 Pig and Poultry FY71-2 6 0.07Development

(*) 1-13 Forest Industries FY72-3 9 0.09Development (hard wood)

(W) 1-14 Masai Range Development FY72-3 36 0.88

:l-15 Lower Rufiji River A ri- FY72-3 24 1.50cultural Development/a

4.09

/a This study is contingent on Government's decision regarding develop-ment of Stiegler's Gorge.

(*) Highest priority studies.

- 5 -FORM.No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(1It-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - 1 (1)

Area: Country: Sector(3): Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

I. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Horticultural Development

2. PURPOSE: To prepare a program for the development of an horticultural industry within theframework of the agricultural industry. The objectives would be to meet the growth in demand,effect reductions in the level of imports of horticultural produce which can be grown andprocessed within Tanzania, and develop potential export crops, or processed products.

3. SCOPE: The study should:(a) review past trends in production and consumption and the current marketing arrangements,

and prepare forecasts of internal demand and export possibilities;(b) define those areas most suited for specialized, and market-oriented production; and the

nature and optimum siting of market structures, storage facilities and processing units,together with estimates of capital and recurrent costs, and financial returns; and

(c) make recommendations on institutional arrangements, including research and extensionservices, and pricing policies designed to guide production into development areas.

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problemns

-Current investigations by Ministry -Papers and Statistics by Marketingof Agriculture and other Government Section of Ministry of Agriculture;agencies and Research Centres; -Economic Research Bureau papers;

-Household Budget Surveys; -"A Turn-Key Project for a National-Agricultural Census 1971/72. Cold Chain Operation... " NAFCO.

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date

i1 oonths FY 71 -2

6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

Some of the scope described above-has been covered by work of The Ministryof Agriculture in early 1971

7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known):

(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)

- New and improved market structures and equipment. 1.5 million- Processing and preserving installations. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

- Crop production. 1.0 million/Bilateral donors

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APDDate: January 1971

9. S)TAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: High priority. Sheet Revised by: J. P. Dumoulin

Development of the Horticultural Industry has proo ltem(s) Revised: Feb. '71: 5,9. 4(b),gressed very slowly. There is an immediate need forevaluation of resources and planning for development. Dept. or Agency: IB.D/PMEA -

Date: January 1971 7/20/71______________________________________________________________________ . ______________

- 6 -FORM NG. 386.01 INTERNATICNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(1.169) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATICN

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 1-1 (2)

(to be filled in when possible)

1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff:

Horticulturist 1 10Agricultural Economist 1 10Engineer (Processing) 1 10

Total: 3

(b) Local Professional Staff

(c) Local Supporting Staff

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency T

(a) Professional Staff Costs 90,000 90,000(b) Equipment - 16,000 16,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 10,000 3A4,000 44,000

(d) Total 100,000 50,000 150,000

3. OTHER CCMMENTS

Imports into Tanzania of horticultural processed produce, from the East AfricanCommunity were valued at Sh 2.2 million in 1969, and fresh produce at Sh 2.5 million.

Imports of processed produce from 3rd. countries were valued at Sh 3.1 million,and fresh produce at Sh 1.3 million.

Principal processed items, from East African Community, included jans, juicesof tomato, pineapple and passion fruit, tinned pineapple and canned vegetables.Fresh produce was principally vegetables.

About 70 percent of imports of processed produce, from third countries, werecomprised of tomato juice and puree, tinned pineapple and juice, and passion fruit juice.Fresh produce was mainly apples, grapes and other fruit.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville Mutter

Dept. or Agency: Consultant-IBRD/APD

Date: January 1971W. SchaetTer -Kehnert/

Supplement Revised by: T.P. Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised: Feb.'71 :2

Dept. or Agency: IBFD/PMEA/APD

Date: January l71l

FORM V5. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(II-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION


Area: Country: Sector(s):

Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Sisal Diversification

2. PIURPOSE-To prepare a program for the alternative use of land going out of sisal, including

cropping programs, perennial tree crops, fatstock and dairy production.

3. SCOPE:The study should:

(a) prepare topographical maps of the defined areas indicating land capability together withsupporting data;

(b) make recommendations on alternative use of these areas, including intensive productionof sisal, other crops, fatstock and livestock production; on farm organization andfarming systems; and on any necessary development of the infrastructure;

(c) indicate phase implementation including establishment of pilot pm jects.

'4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems

- Current crop and livestock - Photo mosaics and printpilot projects of Tanganyika laydowns;Sisal Corporation and private - Previous soil and land useestates. studies, including analyses

and classification by ResearchStation, Mlingano;

- Improved Sisal Production, ILACo 1966.


About 9 months but dependent whether study owers FY 71-2all sisal areas or only those of Tanganyika Sisal Corporation.




- Investment in sisal production, including 12.0 millionmechanical equipment for production and (c) Financing Need and Potential Sourceprocessing;

- Investment in alternative crops and livestock, 8.0 million IBRD/IDA/bilateralincluding processing plants. donors.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville Mutter

190,000 Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRBD/APDDate: January - 1971

9. SrAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Medium Priority Sheet Revised by: W.Schaefer -Keh. P.Enge -Decisions on sisal replanting and/or alterna- Itms Reie- Dt. DiiiiM? g 1 mania

tive crop development are fairly urgent as clearing .s e Fe`1 a 14 ^ , .5 b)I costs are escalating and land reverts to bush. Dept. or Agency: BRD/ MA / A PD IBRD

Date: January - 1971 7/20/ 1______________________________________________________________ __________________ -I. ________________

FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 1 - 2 (2)




Agriculturist (crops) 2 18Agriculturist (stock) 1 6Agricultural Economist 1 9Engineer 1 3

Total: 5 36




(a) Professional Staff Costs 108,000 4,000 112,000(b) Equipment _ 20,000 20,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 1 2,000 L6,000 58,000

(d) Total 120,000 70,000 190,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The study would be principally concerned with major sisal areas, of which 116,000 hais owned by the parastatal Tanganyika Sisal Corporation, with 68,000 ha under sisal.

The total area of sisal estates was 392,000 ha in 1969 of which 197,000 ha under sisalwas cut. Total fibre production was 209,000 tons, of which 166,000 tons was exported.

The ILACO study of 1966, on Improvements of Methods in the Production of Sisal,indicated for comparative purposes, differences in growing costs between extensive and inten-sive methods.

(a) Extensive MethodYield (fibre) 8 tons per cycleCost of fibre per ton (Sh ) 295/50Number of man-days/ton, 144/8 18

(b) Intensive MethodYield (fibre) 17.5 tons per cycle (yields of more than 20 tons are

obtained)Cost of fibre per ton (Sh ) 181/40Number of man-days/ton,300/17.5 17

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APDDate: January - 1971

W. chaefer -Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised: Feb. '71 :2

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEk/APD

Date: January - .Ls(

FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNAT'IONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(Il-t9) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 _ 3 (1)

Area: Country: Sector(s):Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

1. hAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: National Dairy Development.

2. PURPOSE:To develop an integrated national dairy development program for Tanzania aimed

at; reducing the importation of dairy products during the next five to ten years.

3. SCOPE: This study should comprise:

(a) an evaluation of the existing market in Tanzania for milk products in relation tointernal production a'nd imports;

(b) an evaluation of prices and pricing policies for various sectors of the industry;(o) an evaluation of large-scale production as against small-scale production related

to farming systems;(d) an evaluation of priority areas for the development of the milk industry for both

small or large-scale enterprises;(e) an evaluation of alternative investments that could be made in the processing industry

and the phased development of such plants; (con't on 1-3(2), item 3)

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data _ (c) Expected Data Problems- FAO/iBRD 15/69 TAN 4 Livestock Identification - Marketing.

Mission to Tanzania;

- TOG Kilimanjaro/Arusha Dairy Project;- TOG Mara Milk Scheme;- IBRD Economic Mission Report Vo. TI, March 1970.

5. IIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date

- Phase I - an evaluation and development program - 3 months- Phase II - after clearing with Government, the FY 71-2

preparation of a dairy development 6 monthsproject. Total 9 months



(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)Dairy development project. 5 million.

(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

3 million.The UK Govt. has expressed interest.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: R.G. Grinshaw

$150,000 Dept. or Agency: IBD/ PMEADate: January 1971.

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: J bp F_ ___ mannHigh priority to ensure that Government

dairy projects curr-ently being prepared can be Item(s) Revised: Feb. 71: 6,8- (aI related to the conclusions of the study. Dept. or Agency: PMEA -APL

Date: January 1971 7/20/7._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _________________

10 -,: :. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATICONAL FINANCE

9I.f39 ASSOCIATtON RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team | Total Man-Months


'1arketing 1 6.-roduction (feed and animal husbandry) 1 9Processing 1 6Economist (credit and production economist) 1 9

Total: 4 30


(c) Local Supporting Staff : 4 36

'2. TENTATiVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 90,000 90,000(b) Equipment 10, 000 5,000 15,000

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 10,000 35,000 45,000

(d) Total 11 0,000 L40,O0O 1 50,000

(Con't from 1-3(1), item 3 _"Scope):

(f) an evaluation of the existing infrastructure investments in the industry to coverresearch, farmer education, roads, veterinary, credit, etc...

(g) a fully costed project for the first phase of the recommended development programincluding cash flow projections and economic analysis.

3. OTHER CO4DENTS

Dairy products are the largest of the Tanzania food imports valued at about 32million shillings per annum3 (or equivalent to 37,000 gallons of whole milk equivalentper day). Apart from the Dar-es-Salaam market, there is a high demand for milk in certainhigh population rural areas. Thus, there are three major rilk consuming areas within thecountry: Dar-es-Salaam, Arusha-Kilimanjaro and the Southern Highlands area near Mbeya.The Southern Highlands and the Arusha-Kilimanjaro ares are suitable for milk production(if related to improved crop husbandry techniques). The Morogoro area would also be suita-ble for milk production and is in a favorable position to supply whole milk to Dar-es-Salaam.In such an area, the utilization of sisal estates may be of importance as production areas.It should be noted that the majority of the countryts new milk consumers will be in the lowincome groups and it is Government's policy to encourage low cost production of milk, andit is not prepared to encourage, for the long term, a high cost/price milk industry. Noteshould be made of half bred dairy stock required for the production areas (by numbers,location and years).

Supplement Prepared by: RoG. Grimshaw

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/FPESADate: January 1971._______________- _W:cnae.1er-rennertSupplement Revised by: J.YP. Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised: Feb. '71 :2

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEA-A FD

I Date: January 197-1.

- 11 -FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 4 (1)

Area: jCountry: Sector(s):Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Forest Industry Development (softwood)

2. PURPOSE: To prepare a program for the expansion of forest industries, including woodpulpand woodfuel production, to account for existing softwood plantations and the needs forexpanding plantations to meet the requirements for utility timbers from 1975-2000.

3. SCOPE: The study should comprise:

(a) a comprehensive market analysis to determine in detail the future demand andprice estimates for utility timber by consumer sectors, inclusive of the buildingindustry, tobacco industry, urban woodfuel supplies, pulp requirements and exportmarkets;

(b) an evaluation of alternative uses of softwood in relation to existing plantations,market outlets, locality , size of operation and price trends;

(c) plans for expansion of plantations and the selection and phasing of new plantationsin the light of the foregone conclusions;

(d) the phasing and siting of the associated processing industries;and(con't on 1-4(2), item 3)

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data _ (c} Expected Data Problems _

- FAO Wood consumption survey;- UNDP/SF Forestry Industry Development and Planning.- Development of the forestry sector Tanzania,

FAO/SWE/TF24;- Prospects for central lumber yards in Tanzania

FAO/FOI/SF/TAN 15.


12 months.FY 71-2



(a) Description (b) Estimated investment (US$ equivalent)

- Phase I utility timber development project. 15 million.(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

UK/Canada/SIDA/LMRD/IDA

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: R.G. Grimshaw

240, 000 Dept. or Agency: IBRFD/PITE!FDate: January, 1971.

9. STAFF'S COMMENI ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: High Priority. Sheet Revised by: W Dhaee ehnert

This study should be carried out as soon Item(s) Revised: Feb. 171:8,9.as possible, to be ready for inclusion in the 3rd Cy: IBs7RPiEA -AFPe71 9five year development plan. Dept. or Agency:

Date: January 1971.

- 12 -FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE


PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 4 (2)


1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Teamr Total Man-Months


Market Analyst 1 6Silviculturist 1 12Wood pulp expert (Economist) 1 6

Economic and Financial Analyst 1 12Sawmilling and Logging Expert 1 6

Total: 5 42

(b) Local Professional Staff : _

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Drivers and Clericals 5 60

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Total

Currency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 130,000 130,000

(b) Equipment 30,000 10,000 40,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 1 0,000 60,000 70,000

(d) Total 170,000 70,000 2h40,000

(con't from l-41), item- 31 "Scopelt):

(e) a feasibility study and preparation of a first phase investment project inclusive

of plantations, processing industries (sawing, logging and pulp, and infrastructural

requirements).

3. OTHER COI{MKTTS

It should be noted that there is a considerable amount of data available in Tanzani ,

in particular adequate data on production potential of various plantation areas including:

- forest costings and inventory data on existing plantations;

- various reports on possible pulp development in Tanzania;

- timber research station on woodfuel consumption for tobacco;

- results and experiences of UNDP/FAO forest industries development and planning

project.

Supplement Prepared by: R.G. Grimshaw

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PNEk

Date: January 1971

- W.Schaefer-Ke P. E 1-Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin manr

Item(s) Revised: Feb. '71 :2 3

Dept. or Agency: _ _B_W/ Ppua -APD

Date: January 1971( T/20/T

- 13 -FORM Nn. 386 INTERNATItONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL-BAK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(I 1-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 (I

brea: Country: etrsEastern Africa Tanzania Sector(s): Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Pyrethrum Industry.

2. PURPOSE:To prepare a pyrethrum development program consistent with the world market prospects.


(a) analyse Tanzania's potential with respect to existing and alternative markets;(b) make recommendations concerning internal and external marketing institutions and

procedures; sales organization; production research and development; and pricingstrategies;

(c) prepare a pyrethrum project, if feasible, including proposals for staffing of cropresearch and extension services; siting and establishing research facilities; theresearch program; siting and preliminary construction design of pyrethrum driers; andfarm budgets.

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems

- Pyrethrum world market study - statistics of production andconsidered by FAO. exports, Ministry of Agricul-

ture.- Information on export markets,

Mitchell Cotts.

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Stilly (b) Desired Starting Date

8 months FY 71-2



(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)A project covering 25,000 ha with investment 3.5 million.

in crop production, including fertilizers and researche,) Financing Need and Potential Sourceand investment in pyrethrum driers , processing and 2.0 million - BRD/IDAmarketing.


100,000 Dept. or Agency: Consultard IBRD/APDDate: January 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: w-Schaefe er , Engel_High priority. Pyrethrum is a small but impor Itern(s) Revised: _eb I : 8 2,7(a

tant industry with, possibly, good potential. Dept. or Agency: Januar 1971V IBRD

Date: January 197 7n20/71

- us -FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(fl-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 1 - 5(2)(to be filled in when possible)



Agricultural Economist 1 2Agricultural Economist (Marketing) 1 8Agriculturist 1 6Engineer (Processing) 1 3

Total: 19



2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local talCurrency Currency Tota

(a) Professional Staff Costs 5d(00_ 50,000

(b) Equipment : -_(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 20,000 22,000 42,000

(d) Total 78,000 22,000 100,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The proposed world "Pyrethrum IMiarket Study" would include a review of present useof pyrethrin and competitive insecticides, an analyses of factors affecting use of syntheticinsecticides and pyrethrin, and assessment of effect of legislation against toxic chemicals,and likely competition from new synthetic insecticides, and a forecast for potential marketsfor pyrethrin, by areas, over the next 5 anl 10 years.

Fyrethrum production is confined to the northern and southern highland areas.Frm L*CAto 1967, production of dried flowers increased fourfold, from 1,700 to 6,600 tons. By 1969,

production had declined to 3,700 tons. Growers' prices declined from Sh 2/ to Sh 1/70 perpound. Yields per acre have also declined, probably largely due to failure to replant, sinceyields fall sharply in the fourth season. In 1967, Tanzania accounted for 39% of pyrethrinexports from East Africa. Processing and export sales have been the monopoly of MitchellCotts (T) Ltd., under an agreement with the Tanganyika Pyrethrum Board. This agreement willbe terminated in 1972. Producticn is controlled through annual licenses to growers, withinthe export sales volume, as advised by Mitchell Cotts. Significant factors in improvingmarket prospects for pyrethrum are improvements in the pyrethrin products, development ofalternative usage (the main outlet currently being as a quick "knock down" component of house-hold insecticides) and lower unit cost of production, mainly through improvement of the pyre-thrin content of the dried flowers. The latter being a research program of selection andbreeding, and improvements in the drying process.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APDDate: January 1071

IW.7chaefer- eM-ert-Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin.

Item(s) Revised: Feb '71: 2

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PI4EA/APD

Date: January I971

- 15 -FORM No. 386 INTERN9ATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11-691 ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: I - 6(i



1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: CasheTnut Industry

2. PURPOSE:To improve the handling, transportation and storage of raw nuts, and determine

the supply of labor for hand or inechanical processing of the raw nut.

3. SCOPE: rne study should:(a) review the present handling of Tanzania cashew nuts for processing;(b) prepare a project based on forecasts of production between 1975/80, having regard to

the possibilities for local processing, and prepare detailed preliminary constructiondesign of stores, bulk handling facilities and drying facilities together with estimatesof cost and financial returns;

(c) based on experience with current pilot hand-processing units, survey and analyze laboravailabilities on part or full-timre basis by number and location, and

(d) prepare an investment project to develop local processing including preliminary const-ruction design and siting of units.


- Population Census; - Study of Cashew Industry, - The assessment of- Agricultural Census, 1971/72; A.D. Little Inc.; competitive seasonal- Operation of pilot processing - FAO Agricultural Services, requirement for labor;

units. Bulletin No. 6; - Labor turnover.- Cashew Marketing, T{JCT.D/GATT,

1968.

5. T I1ING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date

- Phase I (a and b) - 6 months FY 71 - 2- Phase II (c and d) - 12 months

Total .. . 18 months.

6. COMMENT ON POTENTiAL STUDY SPONSORS:

7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known):(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)

- Construction of stores and driers; 5,0 million.- Installation of mechanical/hand processing (c) Financing Need and Potentia1 Source

units. 3.0 million - IBRD/IDA/bilateraldonors.

8. ORD)ER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville Mutter

Phase 1 *ci,y: 130ofi0 Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APDDate: January 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Medium priority. Sheet Revised by: J P. D ul in P.

Storages, drying and movement of crop is becoming Itee(s) Revised: Feb 171: 3,6,8 8,9lincreasingly difficult and need to be tackled over Dept. or Agency: TBRD/B A - APD IBRDthe next three years.

Date: January 1971 7/20 71

- 16 -FORM NO. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

"I1- 69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.:1(to be filled in when possible)

1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Tean Total Man-Months


Agricultural Economist 1 6Agriculturist 1 3Engineer (Construction) 1 3Statistician 1 6

Total: 4 18


(c) Local Supporting Staff Investigators 10 120

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency l

(a) Professional Staff Costs 55,000 55,000(b) Equipment 10,000 10,000


(d) Total 8o,000 50,000 130,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The priority area for study would be the Mtwara regions currently producing 75% ofthe cashewnut crop, but would include the coastal belt in the Dar-es-SalaamVBagamoyo andTanga areas.

Of Tanzania's current cashewnut production totalling 125,000 tons valued at $17million, 25,000 tons is processed locally (17,500 tons by mainly mechanical methods, and7,500 tons by hand), the balance being shipped as raw nuts to India. Production is expectedto increase at 10% p.a. to about 200,000 tons by 1975.

Local processing by mechanical methods has not been entirely financially satisfac-tory though modifications to the plant at Dar-es-Salaam may effect an improvement in perfor-mance. The more recently installed plant at Mtwara, has yet to be proven.

Hand-processing may be more satisfactory, provided sufficient labor is available,and can be trained to an adequate standard.

F.o.b. value of raw nuts is Sh 1400/- ($200) per metric ton. F.o.b. value ofkernels (processed from 1 ton of raw nuts) is Sh 2000/- ($285).

Cashew trees, once established, are said to require little management beyond keepingthe ground clear of weeds, to conserve moisture and to facilitate the harvesting of soundand dry nuts. The nuts must be allowed to fall to the ground at maturity. Grass/weedcontrol is rarely carried out, possibly due to the time-consuming nature of the operationand the absence of factual data on its economic benefits. Average yield of mature trees mayvary for a number of reasons, between 300 kg/ac, varying between Sh 285 ($40) and Sh 1140($188) at current growers' price of Sh 95 ct./kg forstandard nuts. It is suggested that program of Supplement Prepared by: Neville Mutterresearch, at the Mtwara research center should include Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APDstudies on the effect on yield of weed control with Date: January 1971concurrent studies on alternative methods of control, Dea r1

W caefer -Kehnert/i.e. slashing with implements, rotary grass cutters Supplement Revised by: j.sp pumoulinor other mechanical methods or herbicidal treatment. J.P. D m inThis research may lead to investment in mechanicalV Item(s) Reised:

herbicidal weed control. Dept. or Agency: IBRD/ PMEA

Date: January I9 Yl.

- 17 -FFORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT iNTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCT)ON AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 7(1)

Areai: Country: Sector(s):Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

i. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Oilseeds industry.

12. PURPOSE:To prepare a developmnt program for the production, processing and marketing of

oilseeds.


(a) examine the current domestic oilseeds position, and assess the market requirements;the interchangability of oils, the land capability and alternative investment opportu-nities;

(bo) prepare an investment project including soyabean production; processing of corn oiland soya oil and meal; high grade protein feed, having regard to advances in foodprocessing technology; production techniques; storage methods and facilities; trans-portation; and marketing and pricing policies designed to guide production, togetherwith capital and recurrent costs and financial return.

4. ElACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems

- Sisal Improvement and Diversifi- - Statistics, Min. of Agric.cation Studr (1-2). - NAPB, NAFCO and NDC;

- Castor Oil Production, NDC;- Improvement of Copra Produc-

tion, Fremond, 1969.


FY 72-3

10 months.

6. COMMENT OH POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:



- Investment in production and Tanzania 10.0 millionSisal Corp, State farms; (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

- Investment in processing plants; 6o.o million - IBRD/IDA/bilateral- Investment in farm machinery and equipment. donors.


200,000 Dept. or Agency: CorLsultanit, IBRD/APID

Date: January 1971.

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: J .bPhXr-oulinffennerM4edium priority as it appears that oilseeds

have a good potential for expansion but other propose Item(s)Revised: Feb 171: 6studies have a higher priority. Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PA-

Date: January 1971.

- 18 -FiRm No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE


PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEIMENT No.: 1 - 7(2)(to be filled in when possible)

I. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months


Agriculturist 2 20Agricultural Economist 1 10Ehgineer (Oilseed Processing) 1 10

Total: 40

(b) Local Professional Staff : _

(c) Local Supporting Staff :

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local Total

Currency _ Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs : 120 ,000 _ 120,000(b) Equipment : - 20,000 20,000

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): l000 ,50 000, 60,000

(d) Total 130,000 70,000 200,000

3. OTHER 09MMENTS

Current oilseed production, in Tanzania, is principally subsistance, the widelyfluctuating seasonal surplus being marketed. An exception is cotton seed (a byproduct of

cotton lint production) which is processed locally. The resultant oil is almost entirely

for domestic consumption, the cake and meal being mainly for export. With the exception of

cotton seeds, exports of oilseeds and byproducts valued at Sh 29.5 million ($ 4 m.) in1968, have been on a downward trend. There is little information on total production, domesticonsumption and domestic market sales. Oilseed production is of importance in certain areas,particularly where there are few alternatives for cash crop production.

The study, after examining future requirements for processing, should make recom-

mendations as to the relative merits of expeller or solvent extraction.

The study should, also, evaluate any discrete demand and market premiums for sesame(simsim): (a) as regards its oil and (b) the cake and meal; and make recommendations for

further research on selection and breeding of imported varieties: (a) for increased yield and(b) indehiseent strains, suitable for large-scale production (i.e. combine harvesting) andmethods of husbandry.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APIDate: January 1971

w. Schaerer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin.


Dept. or Agency: IBMD/PMEA -AFPD

Date: January l19 (.

- 19 -FORm No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(1 1-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - o(l)

Area: iCountry: Sector(s):Eastern Africa Tanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Grain Crops Storage and Handling (farm to mill/silo).

To prepare a development program for improvements in farm storage and handling,drying facilities, and transport from farm to mill/silo of grain crops.


(a) review food-grain production in those areas delivering direct to main stores/silos/millin the Arusha, Iringa and Dodoma areas;

(b) examine current storage facilities on-farm and at local cooperative societies or unions(c) analyze methods of grain handling from farm to cooperative societies and from cooperati

ve societies to main stores, together with costs of handling and delivery;(d) assess loss of grain in absolute, qualitative and value tarms;(e) prepare an investment project including preliminary construction design of stores

for bulk handling of grain at farm or society level; siting of such stores; equipmentfor on-farm and society handling of grain; and vehicles for transport to main stores2together with estimates of capital and recurrink costs and financial returns.


- Food Grain Storage inTanzania, SiDA 1968.


4 months. FY 71-2




Investment in construction of stores, 1.5 million.handling equipment and vehicles. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

1.0 million /bilateral donors.


60,000 Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRID/APDDate: January 1971.

Schaefer-Kehnert9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUOY: Sheet Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin

Medium priority. This project is of impor- Item(s) Revised: Feb '71: 6tance in supporting the current investment of $2.4 tmillion in silo storage facilities. Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PIIEk/APD

Date: January 1971





(a) Foreign Professional Staff:Grain Storage 1 4Transport and Haidling 1 4Agricultural Economist 1 14

Total: 3 12



2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TctalCurrency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 36,000 36,OOC(b) Equipment : -_(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 6,000 18,000 24,ooo

(d) Total :42,o0O 18,000 60,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

This study is complementary to the food grain storage project now being implemented,and based on the SIDA report of 1968. Silos for storage of grain, with a total capacity of47,200 tons, are being constructed in the main grain-producing areas, and at the port ofDar-es-Salaam.

Site Silo Capacity

Arusha 8,900 tonsDodoma 8,900Ismani 10,800 I

Iringa Hill 600 "Dar-es -Salaam 18 000

The advantage of this present capital investment, tcLtlling Sh 17 million ($2.4 m)would be enhanced if handling costs into these silos were reduced by bulk-handling from farmto silo. In addition, any overall reduction in handling costs, would improve margins onexport sales.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, TBRD/AFDDate: January 1971

W.Schaefer-KehnertSupplement Revised by: JOP. Dumoulin


Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PNEA/APD

Date: January 1971

- 21 --ORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATINAL FINANCE

(11 .69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Coffee Pulperies Development.

2. PURPOSE:To prepare a program for the improvement of wet-processing of Arabica coffee.


(a) review and analyze the operation of the 28 central pulperies operated by the KilimanjarCoop. Union (13), MerujArusha Coop Union (6), Rungwe Coop. Union (4), and Pare Coop.Union (1), indicating those factors which have contributed to the satisfactory orunsatisfactory financial performance of the various pulperies; and

(b) based on this review and analysis prepare a project for improvement of wet-processingincluding, if feasible, investment in additional processing facilities.


- Statistical data are availablefrom Cooperative Unions and theRural Development Bank.


4 months. FY 71-2

6. CO .vmENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:



Coffee processing projects. 0.5 million(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

0.4 million. IBRD/IDA, possibly ascomponent - second phase agriculturalcredit projeot.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville Mutter90,000 Oept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APD

Date: January 1971

9. STAFF'S CO"4ENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: High priority. Sheet Revised by: I .Schaefer.ehnart/It is highly desirable toanalyse, as soon Item(s) Revised: Feb '71: 6, 8

as possible, the reasons for unsatisfactory perfor- Dept.or Agency: IB/PME -APDmance of the existing central pulperies.

Date: Ja.nuaLry 1971

- 22 -FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATICNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRU(CTIONC AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 1 - 9 (2)(to be filled in when possible)



Agriculturist (Coffee Processing) 1 6Agricultural Economist (Marketing) 1 6Agricultural Economist (experience in econometrics) 1 6

Total: 3 18


(c) Local Supporting Staff Investigators 5 15

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 54,000 _ 5,o00o(b) Equipment

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 6, 00 30,000 36,000

(d) Total 60,000 30,000 90,000

3. OTHER CO9ENTS

A total capital investmerrt of §h- 4 million ($o.6 m) has been made in the 28 cen-tral pulperies of which an IDA loa Aac ts for Sh 1.6 m (with an uncommitted IDA balance

of Sh 0.3 m). These pulperies have a capacity for processing 4,000 tons, or approximately

10% of the total Arabica crop. Performance in economic terms has been unsatisfactory, and,on average, premiums obtained for parchment coffee have barely covered operating costs,estimated at Sh 300/- per ton. Nevertheless, individual pulperies have achieved premiums

between Sh 600/- and Sh 700/-, opposite others at discounts of Sh .500/-, irlicating the

capability of satisfactory performance, under certain conditions. Though "'hand"-processed

parchment (i.e. wet-processed by individuals or groups) has frequently achieved equal or

better returns to the producer, these returns are not the optimum which could be obtainedfrom the inherent quality of the coffee. The study should review the various factors,

capable of statisticalanalysis including design, layout, size, site, output by volume and

class, area command, number of producers (including volume of total production, production

delivered to pulpery and distance), feeder roads/paths to site, transport facilities,

methods of operation (including number and quality of management, days and hours worked)

capital and recurrent costs. In addition, the study should review market requirements,

since premiums for top quality may not be an adequate reward, or incentive, for the time

and effort required, opposite the production of a fair average quality.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville Mutter

Dept. or Agency: Consultant, FBRD/APD

Date: January 1971

W. Schaefer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. lmnoulin.


Dept. or Agency: TBRD/P&EA -APD

Date: January 1) (I

- 23 -FORg NO. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

( 1 1.- 69 ) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - 1o(i)


1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Seed Cotton Handling.

2. PURPOSE:To improve the handling and dispatch of seed cotton into aiid out of primauy buying

posts, methods of transport and receipt at ginnery, including improvements in design ofstores, layout and equipment.


(a) review current methods of.handling seed cotton in Tanzania;(lo) investigate alternative storage and handling methods; and(c) based on the review and investigation, prepare a phased development project, detailing

together with estimtes of capital and recurrent costs and financial return: i. preli-minary construction design of stores; ii. type of vehicles required; iii. type ofweighing scales; iv. mechanical handling equipment; and v. equipment for the data processing of farmerst seed cotton deliveries, receipts of farm inputs, and credit accounts.

,. 13ACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems

- Development of trunk and feeder roads; - Cooperative union and- Proposed "Cotton Production Project", society statistics.

Geita District.


4 months FT 72-3


7. FROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known):

(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment {US$ equivalent)Construction of stores, purchase of 1.5 million

vehicles, scales, handling and office equipment. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

1.0 million, bilateral

donors.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (Us$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville Mutter

60,000 Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/AP)Date: January 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ONl PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY:NediuIm priority Sheet Revised by: W. Schaefer-Kehnert/The current situation is not so unsatis ac- J P Dumoulin

tory as to warrant urgent action. Improvements, Item(s) Revised: Feb 71: 3, 6, 9hcrwever, will be required as the crop to be handled Dept. or Agency: 1BRD/PMEA/AFDapproaches 50C,O00 tons. Date: January 1971

- 24 -; NO.AM 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

x,!.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION


1 TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

Ia) Fo.eign Professional Staff:

Agricultural Economist (Marketing) 1 4Agricultural Economist (Accounting Procedures) 1 4Engineer (Transport and Handling) 1 4

Total: 3 12




(a) Professional Staff Costs 36,000 36,000(b) Equipment _ _ _

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 6 , 000 18 000 24 000

(d) Total 42 000 18,000 6o,ooo

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The study would be principally confined to the Iwanza, Shinyanga, Mara and Taboraregions, currently producing 400,000 bales cotton lint (240,000 tons seed cotton), with atarget production by 1975 of 650,ooo bales (400,000 tons seed cotton). Methods of handlingseed cotton, in and out of primary stores, are largely by hand, and transport is in bagsin open 5-ton lorries. These methods are likely to become increasingly costly, and time-consuming, with consequent delays in primary selling procedures, delivery to ginnery andreturn loads of inputs, particularly fertilizer, for the subsequent crop. In addition,cotton quality may be impaired should the "buying season" be protracted into the onset ofthe Nov./Dec. "rain season", together with delays in the preparation and panting of landfor the new crop. In addition, any delays and frustration are not conducive to farmers'desire to increase production.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/ADate: January 1971

W.Shaefer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised: Feb 171 2

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEA /APD

Date: january 1971

-25 -FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11-1391 ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION




1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Kitulo Plateau Feasibility Study.

2. PURPOSE:To evaluate the economic and technical results of the UNDP/FAO sheep project and

to draw up a full development program to embrace sheep, dairy and beef production for thatarea of the plateau (about 150,000 ha) above the 7,000 ft contour line, in relationshipto netransport and market development (TanZam Highway and Railway),

3. SCOPE: The study should:(a) produce a land use map for the area defining arable and non-arable zones, and the sur-

face water potential in relation to livestock development;(b) evaluate market alternatives for sheep, dairy and meat products and, using the technica

data from the UNDP/FAO project, the study should, in relation to market alternatives,indicate various alternatives for development;

(c). evaluate and recommend the size and type of ownership of the individual enterprisesinvolved and in particular ascertain the role of state or parastatal bodies within thearea;

(d) prepare a phased development program for the area, including detailed physical plans fouinfrastructure and enterprise development, detailed costs and benefits, total projectcosts, financial & economic cash flow analyses, and tentative financial proposals.

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data - (c) Expected Data Problems- FAO/IBRD 115/69 TAN 4 Livestock identification mission to Tanzania; - Marketing and- TOG Dairy Development Kitulo (Cockcroft, Boucheraine); Prices.- UNDP Evaluation Report on Kitulo Sheep Project;- ADS Beef Development Kitulo Plateau;- TOG Government Survey (Baker);- TOG Marketing Studies - Zambia (Baker);- lJniversity of Wales (J.McArthur) - Kitulo Dairy Studies.


9 - 12 months. FY 71-2




Kitulo Plateau development project. 4 million.(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

3 million.


$180,000 Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMTEADate: January 1971

9. SlAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: J P. Dumoul'i. F. -Hiugh priority. The study should not be Item(s) Revised: Feb '1: 6, 8_

undertaken until after the conclusions of the NAationa ltDairy Deeomn ae been established. Dept. or Agency: TBR~D/PMEA /APD IBRDDevelopmentudy Date: Januai'y 1971 7/ 20/ 7

- 26 -FORM No. 386.01 INTERNAT!ONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE


PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: - 1l(2)(to be filled in when possible)

I TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months


Marketing 1 6Production 9Processing 1 3Land Use and Planning 1 6Economist and Credit 1 9

Total: __ 33

(b) Local Professional Staff :

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Drivers, Clerks, etc... 5 45


(a) Professional Staff Costs 99,000 99,000(b) Equioment 18,000 3,000 21,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 3,000000 50,OO 60,ooo

(d) Total 127,000 53,000 180,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Supplement Prepared byRG. GrimshawDept. or Agency: IBRD/ PlNEElDate: January 1971.

W. Schaefer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dnoulin.


Dept. or Agency: [BRD/PMEM/ATD

Date: January 1971

- 27' -Fq-Ul No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - 12(1)


Eastern Africa ITanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Pig and Poultry Development.

2. PURPOSE:To study the technical and economic feasibility of expanding pig and poultry

production, to develop a strategy and program for the development of the industry andto formulate, if feasible, a first pte investment project.


(a) evaluate the current market situation with respect to demand, local supply and importsof pig and poultry products, and forecast future demand under different retail priceassumptions;

(b) develop a strategy and development program for the industry based on forecasted prices;(c) consider feed supply, marketing and institutional requirements; and(d) prepare, if feasible, a first phase investment project for the development of the

industry.


- Pig Development by smallholders in Zambia;- Kongwa Pig Unit - Results NACO;- Poultry industry development in Zambia.


6 months. FY 71- 2

6. COMMENT OK POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known):,a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)

Pig and poultry development project 1.0 millionincluding poultry products marketing scheme. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source


7 0,000 Dept. or Agency: IBEUD/RMEADate: January 1971

9. STAFF'S COMWNT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: .cnaerer-ennert.High priority. The -study would provide mlin

the necessary backgrounld for any future development Item(s) Revised: Feb '71: 8of the industry and should be carried out in the near Dept. or Agency: 1 BRD1/FA /APDf'uture. Date: January 1971

No. 36.01 INTENATILAL DVELOMENT- 28 -FO;'2, flm No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION


rI TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

| ll Foreign Professional Staff:

iig and Poultry Production Specialist 1 6Marketing Economdst 1 6

Total: 2 12


(c) Local Supporting Staff : 2 12

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US_ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 36,000 36,ooo(b) Equipment 4,000 2,000 6,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 4,000 24,ooo 28,000

(d) Total :44,000 26,000 70,000

3. OTHER CO4ENTS

For the development of the pig industry special note should be taken of theexisting supply units at Kongwa and Ngeregere and potential supply zones in the Kili-manjaro/Arusha, Morogoro and Southern Highland areas. For both pig and poultry produc-tion attention should be given to smallholder development as against large-scale para-statal industries.

Supplement Prepared by: R.G. GrimshawDept. or Agency: I BRD/ PMA

Date: January 1971

W.Schaefer-KehnertSupplement Revised by: J.P. Durnoulin 7Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEA/APD

Date: January 1971

- 29 -FORM rJo. 386 INIERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



Eastern Africa I Tanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Forest Industries Development (hard wood).

2. PURPOSE:To prepare a project for the development of saw mills and logging units in the

indigenous hard wood areas being inventoried by CIDA.

3. SCOPE:This study should follow the indigenous forest inventory currently being carried

out by the Canadian Government. The study should:(a) investigate the market for Tanzanian hardwoods and establish prices for exported timbe ;(b) evaluate the Canadian forest inventory study to determine those areas most suitable for

the exploitation of hard woods;(c) locate sites for saw mills and central lumber yards in relation to the source of produc

and point of export from the region or country;(d) recommend type of equipment at saw mills, lumber yards and for logging units;(e) estimate the phased capital and recurrent costs for operating the various units, the

cost of infrastructure and manpower, administrative costs, etc.. (con't on 1-13(2),item 3)

4. EIACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems- FA0/F0l/TAN 15 Prospects for central - Canadian forest

lumber yards in Tanzania; inventory, mid. 1973.- FAC/SWE/TF 24 Development of the

forest sector Tanzania;- UNDP/FA0 Forest Industries

Development Planning (TAN-15).


9 months. FY 72-3




Hard wood saw milling and logging project. 4 million.(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

S IDA/IBRD/IDA/Finland


90,000a Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEA

Date: January 1971.

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P Enre: -High priority. Study should not be Item(s) Revised: Feb 171: 8 o o

undertaken until the Canadian forest inventory is e .AM

completed. Dept. or Agency: IBRD/Pan A -APD IBRDl ~~~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~Date: January 1971. _ _7

_______________________________________________ _______________L____________

- 30 -FoRM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

{1I-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION




Market Economist 1 3Logging Saw Hill Eapert 1 6Economist/Financial Analyst 1 6

Total: 3 15

(b) Local Professional Staff :

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Drivers, Clerks 3 18

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign LocalCurrency Currency Total

(a) Professional Staff Costs : 45GOO 45,000(b) Equipment 10,000 5,000 15,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 6,000 24,000 30,000

(d) Total 61,000 29,000 90,000

(con't from 1-13(1), item 3 "Scope")s

These should be collated into total project costs, economic and cash flow analysisand tentative financial arrangements should be indicated;

(f) special attention should be paid to the institutional and administrative arrange-ments (see study No. 1-4).

Supplement Prepared by: R.G. Grimshaw

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PIIEADate: January 1971.

W.Schaefer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin


Dept. or Agency: TBRD/P1DEA -APD

Date: January 1971.

- 31 -FORM NO. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

('.1. 69 ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATI ON

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - 1 4(1)


1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Masai Range Development.

2. PURPOSE: To expand the scope of the existing USAID Range Development Project. The studywill investigate the ecological and natural resources of the Masai Steppe and suitablecontiguous areas, and will make plans for a phased development program and investmentrequirements.

3. SCOPE: The USAII) team 1 presently developing four or five ranching associations in Masai-

land. The study now proposed should, in collaboration with the USAID team:(a) investigate water and pasture resources of the proposed area (see 2. Purpose);(b) investigate human end stock populations;(c) prepare a land use plan for the development of future ranch associations;(d) prepare physical ranch association plans;(e) detail infrastructural and development costs;(f) assess benefits due to investments;(g) prepare a phased development program indicating total costs, financial and economic casIL

flow analysis, and tentative financing proposals.


- USAID llasai Rancitng Associationt s loan documents; - Herd productivity- UNDP/FAO Sukurmuland and Gogoland studies; and livestock tech-- Kenya Govermnent Masai Group Ranching Scheme. nical coefficients.


The investment study should commence 3 years after FY 72-3the USAID team. will have gained experience on thetechnical, social and economic aspects of range development.




Tanzanian ranching associationproject (phase III livestock development). (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUOE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: R.G. Grimshaw

880,000 Dept. or Agency: IBR.D/PMEADate: January 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT OH PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: High priority. Sheet Revised by: J P. ae e *n gL -The study should not commence until 1972 when Item(s) Revised: eb'71: 5,8,9 9

it is likely that the USAID team will have firm ideas IBRD/ HCA_A?D) -lDon development, and ly which time Goverrunent policy Dept. or Agency:may be firmer. Date: January 1971. 7/20/7

- 32 -CORM No. 386.01 INTERNATICNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

I11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTIMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 1 - 14(2)




Hydrologist 1 36Ecologist 1 36Land Use Planner 1 36Range/Livestock Expert 1 36

Total: 4


(c) Local Supporting Staff : 4 JJ4

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency CurrencyToa

(a) Professional Staff Costs 430,000 4Lo30,00(b) Equipment 150,000 30,000 180,000


(d) Total : 600,000 280,000 880,000

3. OTHER CO1IMENTS

It should be stressed that this study should commence in those priority areas aswill be indicated by the USAID team, thereby giving the USAID team access to development

information for heir own work which has been estimated for 8 years duration.

Supplement Prepared by: R.G. GrimshawDept. or Agency: .BR.D/PMbFADate: January 1971.

W.Schaefer-Kehnert/Supplement Revised by: J.P. Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency: IBRD/ i'NE1-APD

Date: January 1971.

FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATION;ALNINK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11-59) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESNENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 1 - 15(1)


Eastern Africa I Tanzania Agriculture

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Lower Rufiji River Agricultural Development.

2. PURPOSE:To prepare a rogram for agricultural developments in the Lower Rufiji river basin

as a component of the overall resource development program, including irrigation project

formulation.

3. SCOPE: The study should:

(a) prepare a phased program for agricultural development based on a review of previous

studies, and consequent on the Government's decision to construct the Stiegler's

Gorge Dam;

(b) define and prepare an irrigation project giving particulair attention to: detailed soiland land classification; collection of meteorological and hydrological data; prelim-

inary construction design of irrigation works; preparation of farm plans, croppingprograms and budgets;. preliminary construction design and siting of crop storage andprocessing facilities and preliminary design and alignment of feeder roads.


TanZam Railway/Highway Corridor - Rufiji River Basin Survey - HydrologicalAgricultural Development (Study 1-5). FAO IHo. 1269, 1961; - Flood Control.

- US Bureau of ReclamationReconnaissance Survey, 1961;

- Lower M4geta RiverDOS (U) Land Resource Study N.l.


Phase I (a) - 6 months FY 72-3

- Phase II (b) - 18 months

Total... 24 months.

6. C.OMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:


(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment {US$ equivalent)Investment in development project, covering

12,500 ha in irrigation, storage, processing and (c) Financing Need and Potential Sourcefeeder roads for crop and stock production. 10 m otn

10 million.

5. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Neville M4utter

15 million. Dept. or Agency: Consultant, IB2RD/APDDate: January 1971.

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: J.. Duoulin. -

Low; priority. Implementation of the propose! item,s. umoulin.study is contingent upon Government's decision to Item(s) Revised: Feb '1: 3,68proceed with the Stiegler's Gorge Dam. Dept. or Agency: IB3RD/ PEA/APD

Date: January 1971.

- 3L -FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE





Agriculturist (Crops) 2 48Agriculturist (Livestock) 1 12Agricultural Economist 2 36Engineer (Water) 2 36Engineer (Roads) 2 36Engineer (Storage and Processing) 2 24Sociologist 1 12

Total: 12 204

(b) Local Professional Staff: Agriculturist, Economist 4 88



(a) Professional Staff Costs : 602 ,000 4,8000 650, 000(b) Equipment 250,000 250,000 500,o00(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 50,000 300,000 350,000

(d) Total 902 ,000 598,000 1,500,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The Lower Rufiji, covering an area of 5,000 sq. miles, is sparsely populated andundeveloped, largely due to frequent and widespread seasonal flooding. Government policyin recent years, has aimed at further depopulation, due to cost of flood and famine reliefoperations and high costs of social services. A number of preliminary investigations havebeen carried out on the possibilitS of a dam across the Rufiji River at Stieglerts Gorge,and associated generation of hydro-electricity, flood control and irrigation. None ofthese have been progressed, since associated projects have not justified the capital andrecurrent costs. A feasibility study is now to be undertaken, by Kaiser Engineers for amulti-purpose project, including an aluminium smelter using imported alumina or bauxite.Since previous investigations have outlined the agricultural potential of the area, it isconsidered inadvisable to proceed with more-detailed studies, unless a decision to proceedwith dam construction is justified by the feasibility of the associated industrial projects.

With flood control, the area has a good agricultural potential, particularly over200,000 acres of alluvial soils. Cotton, in "good" seasons, has yielded well, and commandeda premium for its yarn-strength quality.

Supplement Prepared by: Neville MlutterDept. or Agency: Consultant, IBRD/APD

Date: January 1971.w. bchaerer-Kennert/

Supplement Revised by: j. p Dumoulin

Item(s) Revised: Feb '71: 1, 2

Dept. or Agency: 1BRD/P7IEA/APD

Date: January 1971

CHAPTER 2

EDUCATION

Background and Key Issues

1. Since independence in 1961, it has been the policy of theGovernmnet to develop educaltion and training, primarily to meet the require-ments of skilled manpower and only secondarily to satisfy limited socialneeds. A large measure of success has been attained in implementing theeducational objectives of the First Five-Year Plan (1964-69), and thesecond Five-Year Plan (1969-74) continues these objectives vithin the frane-work of the following basic policies:

(a) to adhieve self-sufficiency at all skill levels in theeconomy by 1980;

(b) to give every child a primary education as soon as thefinancial circumstances of the Government permit, wyhichis presently planned to be achieved by 1989;

(c) to provide additional or further education and training(secondary, technical and university) only to the extentjustified by the estimated manpower requirement of theeconomy for development; further, to support studentsby bursaries only in post-secondary courses which willproduce specific skills needed for development.

The achievement of these objectives would require a substantial increase ofeducation's share of national expenditure. The proposed expansion of theeducational system appears to be coherent, well planned, financially soundand devoid of scme of the imperfections inherent in the plansof same otherAfrican countries.

2. Although there have recently been significant improvements in thesupply of trained manpower resulting from the planned expansion of theeducation and training system (Table 3-1), there remain a number of factorsw hich are likely to influence the future development of the system. Areview of these factors is given below:

(a) The high and middle-level manpower survey of 1969 indicatesthat, of the approximately 15,000 people employed asprofessionals and sub-professionals, about one-third arenon-citizens, principally engaged in the highly skilled,scientific-based occupations, the arts-based occupationsbeing mainly filled by citizens. The number employed ir.these categories is almost sufficient to meet presentneeds, so that the Government's strategy for profess-sional and sub-professional training :is to ensurethat adequate numbers are produced to replace thenon-citizens now holding these posts. The latest in-dication is that by 1980 Tanzania will be self-

- 36 -

sufficient in professional and sub-professionalcategories, except in some science-based occupations.

(b) The primary system accommodates only about 45 percentof the relevant age group, and therefore implementa-tion of the policy of universal primary educaticn by1989 would probably impose a severe financial strainon the Government. In order to alleviate capital andrecurrent costs, self-help schemes for school con-struction are being actively encouraged. Opportuni-ties for further education or employment for primaryleavers are limited. For example, in 1969, out of theapproximately 59,000 completing primary education,only 7,000 continued in secondary schools; the restcompeted with secondary school leavers for about 16,000jobs generated during the year.

Table 3-1: TANZANIA: GROWTH OF ENROLLMENTSSINCE INDEPENDENCE 1962-70

Year Year Percent Target PercentLevel 1962 1970 Increase 1974 Increase

Primary Education

STD I input 125,521 161,000 28 208,400 29STD VII output 13,730 62,300 354 107,900 73

Total pupil population 518,663 850,900 64 1,140,000 34Total teachers 10,273 18,200 77 25,400 40

Secondary Level

A. Secondary Education

Form I intake 4,810 7,320 52 8,160 12

Form V intake 286 1,530 435 1,870 22Form I-VI population 14,175 30,700 117 34,500 12

Total teachers 789 1,510 91 1,660 10

B. Technical Education 478 621 30 825 33

C. Teacher TraIning - 942 2,140 127 2,850 33

First Year

Higher Education

Intake 102 651 538 1,200 84Output 45 351 680 760 116Intake overseas 348 1147 -58 273 86

Output overseas 150 100 -34 100 0

- 37 -

(o) The major proportion of primary school leavers must

fi-nd self-employrent in rural areas. The curriculumis being progressively revised to prepare childrenprimari4y for rural life, in accord with President1yerere' s thoughts outlined in his paper "Educationfor Self-Reliane"'. The primary schools are being

considered as an integral part of the community in

which they are located, and the urge for commlnityaction already has made many schocls Ancreasirg1yself-reliant.

(d) A-lthough sccndary :evel enrollments and outputs areplanned to meet the needs ci the labor zarket (in-cluding self-employ-ment) or of' higher educaticn,shortfalls of 30 percent are likely vo occur forhigher level, science-based skills in the next 10

years, due to the high failure rate noow prevailingarnng students who have enrolled for science andmathematics-based courses. The high failure ratehas been attributed to: (i) inadequate academicpreparation; (ii) diverse national origin and fre-

quent changes of expatriate teachers; and (iii)relativ-ely inexcxrienced local teachers.

(e) liupleTtentation of the policy to replace exoatri-atesby nationals is proceeding satisactorily. Practically

all non-specia2ised adrninistrative occupations end

82 percent of the professional posts in the pubic

sector are filled by Tanzanians, compared to only 30

percenit in the parastatal sector, and it is expected

that zecoondarp schools will be fully manned byTanzanians by 1977,

(f) Teacher trainring is ceosely geared to the requirementsof the schoolsz etnphasis is placed orn qalaitati-e Li-

provement by introducing upgracing co'rses. 1JLble

training facilities for arts and science teachers are

aiequate, provision for traiLnnrg of' teachers of

agriculture, domestic science, commerce and technicalsubjects are too li-mited.

(g) In technical education, the need is for expansion to

meet the shortage of middle-level technical manpower,

the demand for zwhioh is likely to exceed the present

supply if the econozny expands at the planned rate.

A high and wasteful turnover of technicians trained

at the Dar es Salaam Technical Institute is mainlydue to low wages, indicating that a review cf -rheir

wage structure is necessary.

- 38 -

(h) In higher education, the acute shortage of high-levelmanpower has caused a substantial expansion of Universityfacilities which, because of high failure rates ofsecondary school students pursuing science-based courses,may not be fully utilized.

(i) The parastatal sector, now largely controlled by theGovernment, requires immediate measures for in-serviceupgrading courses in management at all levels for about8,000 people.

(j) Tanzania has, in the past, relied mainly on "on-the job"training for its supply of craftsmen but, subsequentto the establishmlent in 1968, with the help of UNDP,of the Natiornal Industri.al Training Cen-ber and

-Apprenticeship Scheme, an attempt has been made torationalize craftsman training by providing coursesat a training center for 160 trainees yearly. Severalother agencies have training programs but mostly oftoo small a size to be viable. To eliminate theresulting waste.of scarce national assets, it isdesirable that consideration be given to cocrdinatingthose training agencies,

Future Investment Program, 1972-76

3. Although a detailed investment program for the next few yearsmust await the findings of thie manpower survey, it seems likely that emphasiswill be placed on the following:

(a) Rural vocational training centers, sited in ruralareas and coordinated with village development schemes,to provide appropriate vocational training for studentsnot continuing their formal education;

(b) Expansion and improvement of secondary teacher trainingto include teacher involvement in development of self-help cooperative villages and community developmentschemes;

(c) Expansion and impirwement of secondary technical edu-cation and vocational training;

(d) Expansion of paramedical training to staff the in-creasing number of hospitals and other medical facilities;

(e) Introduction of instructional radio and programmedlearning, with specific reference to rural needs, as ameans of increasing the efficiency of the educationsystem;

(f) Expansion of management training;

- 39 -

(g) Development of an organizational structure for non-formal training in the fields of agriculture, industry,commerce and services; in agriculture, the requirementsof rural training needs for services such as extensionwork, marketing, credit schemes, mechanization andcommunity development should be considered.

Proposed Preinvestment Studies

4. In order to assist in a program of this kind, three preinvestmen-tstudies are proposed. When completed, they may provide some direction tonew development strategies. However, each of the preinvestment studiessuggested will not necessarily lead to a specific project, but will iden-tify areas of future investment probably in the form of interrelated projects.The proposed studies are:

Suggested Estimated EstimatedStudy Starting Duration Cost

NO. Name of Proposed Study Year (Months) (US$ Millions)

*) 2-1 Uses of Radio and other FY72-3 12 0.20Corzmnication Media for Formaland Non-Formal Education andTraining.

*) 2-2 Review of Non-Formal Training FY72-3 9 0.17in Relation to Skill Develop-ment

*) 2-3 Inventories of Public and FY72-3 12 0.15Private Facilities for Para-medical and Technical(including agriculture andcommerce) Education andTraining

Total: 0.52

T Highest priority studies.

- 4O -

FORm No. 386 INTERNATtoNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRLCTION AND DEVELOPMENI CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 2-1 (1)


East Africa Tanzania Education

-3i of Radio an Other Comunication Media for Formal and

1. NA4A OF PROPOSED STUDY: .

2. PURPOSE:(a) to determine feasibility of expanded use of new communications media

to help solve edacational and social development problems, and (b) ifwarranted, prepare an action program for such expansion.

3. SCOPE:The stu4y wonld comprise (a) determination of the commmnication needs and related

plans of Governaent services; (b) assessment of the economies of scale to be achieved by

an integrated approach to established needs for education, training and information serviceand activities of all public sectors; (c) determination of the feasibility ot satelliteutilization after consideration of alternative approaches; (d) preparation of an actionprogram, if warranted, including feasibility and requirements on a regional basis (East

Africa).



12 months Fr72-3


The study should be carried out in conjunction with the Ministry of National

Education and East African Posts and Telecommmicatione Corporation



Provision of additional equipped buildings(studios, transmission network) and large (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

scale distribution of equipment.Technical assistance for software. IB

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: RFMcMahon/SMANoorDept. or Agency: PNIA/EducProj Dept.

$200,000 Date: Marsh 22, 1971

9. STAFF'S CO4MENT ON PRIORIIT RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P. Engelmann

Item(s) Revised: 1 9High priority. Dept. or Agency: IBRD

Date: 7/20/71* _,_______________________________ _ ._

-41-FORM NO. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE






Mass-media specialist and leader 1 12Radio engineer 1 12Instructional radio program producer 1 12Programmed instruction specialist 1 12Economist/Financial analyst 1 12

Total: 5 60

(b) Local Professional Staff : Part-time assistance from localprofessional staff as required

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Secretary 1 12


(a) Professional Staff Costs 120,000 60,000 180,000(b) Equipment(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 20,000 20,000

(d) Total 120,000 80,000 200,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Supplement Prepared by: RFMcMahon/SMANoor

Dept. or Agency: PMEA/EducProj Dept.Date: March 22, 1971

Supplement Revised by:

Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 42 -FoRM Nu. 315 INTERNATIONAL DEVELCPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR WNTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(Il-sa- 6 9 1 ASSOCIATION RECDNSTRUCTION AN) DEVELOPMEN,T CORPORATION


Area: Coun'ry: Sector(s)

East Africa Tanzania Education

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Review of Non-Formal Training in Relation to Skill Development

2. PURPOSE: To determine the required organizational machinery necessary to rationalizeand improve efficiency of non-formal training from post-primary to technician

level

3. SCOPE: (a) review and inventory of all non-formal training programs (agriculture, technical

paramedical);(b) critical analysis of training programs - duplications, deficiencies and merits;

(c) recommendations for rationalization and reorganization;(d) comparison with organization machinery in other countries

t legislation and

industrial levy, cf. SENA-Colombia3 SENATI-Perni, INACAP-Chile, Conmission for Technical

Education and Training, Zambia;(e) Terms of reference should include training for rural development, industrial

training, secondary technical schools and Dar-es-Salaam Technical Institute. Agriculture

included in rural development.

_. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems


9 months FY72-3


This study should be coordinated by the 1{inistry of Economic Affairs and

Development Planning.



In conjunction with Study 2-3, it wouldindicate necessary developments in training .Fprograms for agriculture, technical and

paramedical personnel

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ ecuivalent): Sheet Prepared by: RFMcMahon/SlKANoorDept. or Agency: PMEA/EducProj Dept.

$1 70,000 Date: March 22, 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY:. Sheet Revised by: P. Engelmana

Highest priority in sector as findings are Item(s) Revised: 6

urgently needed as a basis for solmd Dept. or Agency: IBRD

! planning. Date: 7/20/71


(1169) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 2-2 (2)(to be filled in when possible)


(a) Foreign Professional Staff:Manager of an existing non-formal training 1 9organization as mission leader

Vocational-technical education specialist 1 9Rural development agricultural specialist 1 9Education economist 1 6Industrial management specialist 1 3Sociologist 1 9Statistician 1 9

Total: 7 54


(c) Iocal Supporting Staff : Secretarial 2 18

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency CurrencyTta

(a) Professional Staff Costs : 100,000 50,000 150,000(b) Equipment 5,00 5,000(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 15,000 15,000

(d) Total . 105,000 65,000 170,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Supplement Prepared by: RFMcMahon/SMANoorDept. or Agency: PMEA/EducProj Dept.Date: March 22, 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 4d4 -,386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTr INIERNATIONAL. 2ANKI FOR INTERNA- IONAL FINANCE

t i-;,9) ASSOCIATION PECONSTRLICTIDN AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 2-3(1)

:Country: Sector(s):

East Africa Tanzania | Education

Inventory of Public and Private FaciLities for General, Paramedical andLAM IF PPOPOSED STUDY: Technical (including Agriculture & Commerce) Education and Training.

|2 p~P(j3S- To provide the education planning authorities, at national and Department level,with a technical survey and analysis of all public education and training estab-lishments, including a utilization study and school distribution maps.

(a) Plot -ill existing public and private operated education and training plants,show road networks and report on transportation facilities, existing and projected;(b) Mske a technical survey of all plants (including equipment & furniture) with aview to:

(i) establishing serviceability potential, major repairs or renovationrequirements;

(ii) preparing (where plans are not available) sketch site map for eachplant and s3ketch showing all spaces and areas;

(iii) establishing present enrollment in each school by grade, by class,and determinning possible capacity if economic utilization factorsapplied;

(iv) making recommendations as to future use (type and level of school/abandonment, etc.), ascertain land available to authorities fornew school construction and reviewing suitability;

(v) map showing situations of homes of students in relation to school(only for hoarding schools).

4. Related Study - UNESC0 tInventory of General Secondary School Facilities in Tanzania,1967.

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Stuidy (b) Desired Starting Date FY72-3Total duration 12 months. However, it is expected that the team would be able todevelop and prepare a plan of action and practical training of survey teams inabout 4 months, followed by the implemnentation of the plan of action by surveyteams with central group supervision and data compilation and output for planning us-,.

6. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:The study would be carried out in conjunction with:(a) Ministry of Educatior(b) Ministry of Labor

7. PROJECT(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known),(a) Description All education investment programs, (b) Estimated lnvestment (US$ equivaient)1973-80, since this is a basic study for identifyinglong-term needs and priorities for construction of (c) Financing Need and Potential Sourcenew schools, upgrading/remodelling of selected schoolsin framework of restructuring, rationalization andconsolidation.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: RFMcMahon,/SMANoorDept. or Agency: PMEA/EdueProj Dept.

l.50,000 Date: March 22, 19719. STAFF'S COM4ENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P. 7h.gelmann j

Considered of highest priority as it is the Item(s) Revised: 1,4,5basic study required for long-term planning Dept.. or Agency: IBRDand short-term programming. r 1ate: 7720/71

-45 -FORM NO. 386 .01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION





Architect or Civil Engineer 1 9Technical education specialist 1 9Agricultural education specialist 1 9Yedical education specialist 1 9

Total: 4 36

(b) Local Professional Staff: Architectural/engineering 5 15Gen. Educ. Spec. 1 9

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Clerical assistants 2 18


(a) Professional Staff Costs 75,0oo 43,0o0 118,000(b) Equipment 2,000 2,000ic) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 30,000 30,000

(d) Total 77,000 73,000 150o000

3. MTHER COMMENTS

Supplement Prepared by: RpMcMahon/SMHUNoorDept. or Agency: PNEA/EducProj Dept.Date: Marlch 22,1971

Supplement Revised by: P, EagelMann

Item(s) Revised: 1(b), 2

Dept, or Agency: I3RD

Date: 7/2U1(i

- 46 -

CHAPTER 3

HEALTH AIN POPULATION /1

Tntroducticn

1. In the last census, held in 1967, the population of Tanzania was12.3 million. During the preceding decade, 1957-67, the annual growth ratew7as of the order of 2.6, compared to 1.8 for the period 1948-58. The crudebirth rate was estimated at L46-48 per 1,000 and the crude death rate at 21;infant mortality was high and life sxpectancy at birth reached only 40 to4W5 years. For the period 1967-75, the annual growth rate is predicted as2.7 percent and by 1980 the population is projected to reach 17.5) million.Beyond this date, the growth rate is foreseen to be approximately 3 percentper annum.

2. An overall population density of 15 persons per kn2 of totalland area becomes a biological density of 276 per kn2 if only arable landis ccnsidered. As in much of Africa, urbanization is proceeding slowlyin Tanzania. In 1967, 95.8 percent of the population lived in rural areas.Tne relatively high proportion of the population remaining on the lend, andthe high cost of developing marginal land, will place a strain on scarceresources. As a consequence of sustained high fertility, the proportionof children under 15 years of age is high, representing 44 4 percent of thetotal population. Of that group, almost 18 percent are children underfive years. By 1980, the proportion under 15 years is estimated to in-crease to 47 percent. This young population structure imposes a heavypressure on the medical and health services.

3. In 1968, 47 percent of the children of the relevant age groupattended primary schools. Because of the Governmentv's policy of limitingthe expansion of primary schools during the First Five-Year Plan, enroll-ment increased only by one percent between 1964 and 1968. Resouirces foreducation are limited while expenditure is heavy - 20 percent of the annualrecurrent budget. The 1967 census indicated that about 81 percent ofchildren in the age group 10-14 years and 75 percent of those 15-19 yearsold living in towns could be considered literate. But for Tanzania as a.-hole the illiteracy rate is approximately 80 percent for adult males and

90 percent for adult females.

Public Health

4. With reference to medical care, the overall target of one dis-pensary per 10,000 population established by the Government has been largely

/1 See also Annex on ItHeaith and Population ,.

- 47 -

met. However, the geographical distribution of the facilities is still uneven,and some villages do not have easily accessible health facilities. In 1969,there were 117 hospitals (52 owned by the Government, 59 by voluntaryagencies, and 6 private). Of a total of 24,383 beds available inthe country, 50 percent were in institutions owned by voluntary agencies.

5. Approximately one-third of the births in the country receivesome kind of medical supervision. As a result of high fertility andunavailability of medical care, maternal mortality is considerable; apartial indicator is the mortality even among the births that occur undersupervision, which is around 5 per 1,000 births. In developed countries,materual mortality among the total population does not exceed 0.3 to 0.5per 1,000.

6. Infant mortality (under one year of age) is by all indicationshigh and probably reaches 160-165 per 1,000 live births. An associationof infection and malnutrition is found in a large proportion of thosedeaths. Mortality in the age group 1-4 is also high, and similar under-lying causes play an important role. Almost twice as many children diein the rural than in urban areas.

7. Less than 10 percent of the Tanzanian population have adequatewater supply; the rest draw water from natural sources without any adequatetreatment. The development of Ujamaa villages, which is being promotedthroughout the country, will encourage concentrated housing. Provisicn ofwater supplies is one of the top priorities in this new type of village.During the first Plan, an average of 60,000 families per year were pro-vided with water.

8. Health problems related to inadequate water provision andsanitation are bacterial pollution and proliferation of bilharzia vectors,which are found in almost all shallow wells and local streams. Thedevelopment of rural water supplies has been given high priority but thereare many difficulties which delay the implementation of these plans, suchas delays in procurement of materials and a shortage of transport ofskilled labor. In the urban areas about 70 percent of the households haveaccess to piped water, but in about one-half of that group the piped wateris not connected inside the house. In effect, less than one-third of theurban population in Dar es Salaam and 16 other towns are served with pipedwater inside the household. Only four towns have a partial seweragesystem. Waste water is treated in only one town. As might be expected,rural sanitation is of a low standard and there is need to develop aprogram for building pit latrines and simple devices. In this situationthe contamination of underground water is inevitable.

9. Several endemic infectious diseases stand out as a criticalarea, requiring priority action by the health services. A number ofepidemics concur to aggravate the health problems. The relatively limitedpreventive measures so far have had little impact on malaria, schistosomiasis,tuberculosis, leprosy, dysentery, helminthic infections and veneral diseases.This group of infectious and parasitic diseases accounts for the largestnumber of cases of illness and death.

- 48 -

10. Among the principal causes of death of hospital in-patientsabout 38 percexŽt are of infectious ethiology. In order of importance, thecauses mentioned in those reports are: respiratory diseases (mainlypneumonia) 15 percent, malaria 8 percent, tuberculosis of lung 5.4 percent,*t.etanus 4.6 percent, dysentery 2.2 percent, measles 1.9 percent, whoopingcough 0.7 percent and helminthiasis 0.3 percent. Malnutrition (especially''washiorkor and other nutritional deficiencies) constitutes about 5 percentof institutional deaths, anemias take 4.2 percent, complications of preg-nancy 3.5 percent and injuries 4,3 percent. About 60 percent of the landarea of Tanzania is infected by tse-tse fly. The number of cases oft.rypanosomiasis reported each year varies from about 300/400 to about 800/900, despite the routine control measures. These measures include aerialand ground spraying insecticides and bush clearing.

11. The seriousness of dietary deficiencies is often underestimatedand it has been noted that deficiencies in proteins, fats and vitamins and,more often than generally believed, deficiencies in the quantity of caloriesare prevalent among the population. It is estimated that approximately one-third of the child population is affected by mal.nutrition. Steps to improvethe nutrition of the population would be the improvement of food crops andsources of animal protein, the development of applied nutrition activitiesthrough improved basic health ser-rices and community villages, and thecreation of Nutrition Rehabilitation Centers.

12. There is a shortage of medical and paramedical persormel.turthermore, the personnel available is often unevenly distributed geogra-phically and among the different sectors (Government, voluntary agencies andprivate sector). Of the 445 registered medical doctors, 43 percent areemployed in Government services, 25 percent by voluntary agencies and therest are working as private practitioners. Nearly 20 percent of theregistered medical doctors are Tanzanians. In addition, there are 102licensed assistant medical officers; of this group, 83 are employed by theGovernment.

1i.3. Government and voluntary agencies are dealing with medical andparamedical training in the country. The long-term general objective is toachieve a self-sufficiency in manpower by 1980. The Faculties of Medicineof Dar es Salaam and Kampala (Uganda) train a large proportion of Tanzanian'medical students. Progress has been made towards this objective in theperiod 1964-69 but greater efforts are planned for 1969-74 and are directedto train physicians, medical auxiliaries, nurses and ancillary staff.

14. Training schemes for auxiliary medical staff will be importantin supplyiing the manpower needed for the rural health services.

Conclusions and Proposed Studies

15. It has been estimated that the increase in the cultivated areais meeting the needs of- about half of the population increase. Urbanizationaccounts only for a small proportion of the total population. The rapidpopulation increase (in the order of 2.6 percent per annum) is puttingpressure on the primary education and health services. The Ministry of

- 49 -

Health believes that fanitly planning should be promoted as part of theeffort to improve maternal and child health services. Family planningis viewed as a means for family spacing rather than limitation.

16. The main problems in the health sector are infectious andparasitic diseases, malnutrition, infant and child mortality, inadequatewater supply, insufficient action on basic health services and lack ofcontrol of quality and distribution of drugs. Shortage of medical andparamedical personnel is the principal limit to the provision of healthservices to the population.

17. The proposed studies are intended to alleviate some of the prob-lems stated above. Among the actions that the Government would need totake are the establishment of epidemiological services, the improvementof basic health services in community villages to include the prevention,control and surveillance of communicable diseases. The establishment ofa strcng central Vector Control Unit as part of the Environmental HealthService, responsible for the surveillance and control of all vectors ofdiseases affecting the population, would help to control schistosomiasisand other parasitic diseases.

18. To alleviate the shortage of medical and paramedical personnelthere is need for a national integrated training program covering themedical profession, nurses and auxiliaries. The list of proposed studiesis as follows:

Suggested Estimated EstimatedStudy Starting Duration CostNo. Name of Proposed Study Year in Months (US$ mil.)

(*) 3-1 Planning and Organization of a FY71-2 6 o.06National Institute of PublicHealth

(*) 3-2 Basic Health Services at the FY71-2 36 0.92Community Level

(*) 3-3 Training Program for Paramedical FY71-2 18 0.20Personnel

3-4 Schistosomiasis Control at the FY72-3 36 o.64Community Level

3-5 Control of Quality and Dis- FY72-3 3 0.03tribution of Drugs

Total: 1.85

Ti) Highest priority studies.

- 50 -FoRM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

III.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



Eastern Africa Tanzania Health and Population

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY. PLANMNIN AND ORGANIZATION OF A NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF PUBLIC HEALTH

2. PURPOSE: To develop a plan for the organization and management of a National Instituteof Public Health in Tanzania and to prepare a recommended program of implementation.

3. SCOPE:(a) To study the ways and means for organizing, through a multi-disciplinary and coordina-

ted approach, a National Institute of Public Health (NIPH), dealing with all technical

public health matters, including:health statistics; epidemiology and related activit-

ies; nutrition; community and family health; environmental health; occupational health;

health education; control of quality of drugs;

(b) To define the objectives and functions of the NIPH and prepare a detailed plan of its

organization, administrative management and staffing;

(c) To prepare a phased development program and budget for the establishment and initial

rpPrnati nnN nf ths NT PR

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Availabie Data (c) Expected Data Problems

The Economic Survey and AnnualPlan 1970/71,p.ll7, Project No.

540b.

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting DateFY71-2

six months


WHO is interested in supporting this study. The Ministry of Health should have primary

responsibility for administration of this study, in collaboration with Ilinistries of Flann-

ing, Agriculture and Labour.



Establishment and operation of a NationalInstitute of Public Health. {c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Dr. Jean P.E. Marchat

60,000 Dept. or Agency: WHO

Date: March 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by:

High priority because of the present weakness of pre- item(s) Revised:

ventive health services and the emphasis pu+ in theSecond Five-Year Plan on the developmient of preven- Dept. or Agency:

tive health activities. Date:

W _ _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. ______________________

- 51 -FORM Nc. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATICON

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEIENT No.: 3-1(2)


l. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff:Public Health Specialist 1 6Management Specialist 1 4Other Consultants 4

Total- 2 14

(b) Local Professional Staff: Public Administration 1 2Architect (provisional) 1 3

(c) Local Supporting Staff Clerk, Typist, Driver 3 18


(a) Professional Staff Costs 55,000 5,000 60,000(b) Equipment : _

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): - _

(d) Total 55,000 5,000 60,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Scome technicaJ units, as the Nutrition and Health Education Units and the OccupationalHealth Section, already exist in the Ministry of Health. They should be integrated intothe proposed National Institute of Public Health.

In connection with the establishment of an NIPH, clarification should be obtained on anumber of activities relating to nutrition: the Swedish International DevelopmentAuthority (SIDA) is interested in erecting a "Food Science and Human Nutrition ResearchInstitute"; the German-Tanzanian Nutrition Research and Training Institute is consider-ing the possibility of creating in Moshi a "Nutrition Research and Training Institute";the Federation of the World Health Foundation, Geneva, and the Danish bilateral assistanceare considering a "Regional Nutrition and Training Institute"; a Research Officer, humanmntrition, is posted in the Ministry of Agriculture; and the Ministry of Agriculture hasplanned for 1970/1974 the construction of a "National Food Science and Nutrition Insti-tute" at an estimated cost of Sh 5,446,000. The present interest of the British bi-lateral assistance for an Institute of Public Health should also be taken into consideration.

Supplement Prepared by: Dr. Jean P.E.MarchatDept. or Agency: WHO

Date: March 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL RANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE111-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION


Area: Country: Sector(s):Eastern A-fri ca Tanzania Health and Population

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: BASIC HEALTH SERVICES AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL

2. PURPOSE: To integrate health activities at the community and Ujamaa villages level into aComnunity Development Scheme.

3. SCOPE:(a) To determine the optimum health activities and related physical facilities, staffing,

technology, procedures, tc achieve integration of health services into community andUjamaa villages and to improve productivity of basic health activites including:health statistics; family health; applied nutrition; control of infectious and para-sitic diseases and zoonosis; medical care and distribution of drugs; environmentalhealth; health education; and to coordinate them with related public services, suchas water supply, sewerage and waste disposal, housing, food hygiene, pollution, vectorcontrol;

(b) To define proper ways and means to integrate these activities at the community levelinto a comprehensive community development program.


5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting DateFy 71.. 2

36 months

6. COI9ENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

WHO is interested in supporting this study. The Ministry of Health should coordinatethis work with the activities of other Ministries.



Development of basic health services as anintegrated part of community development. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8 ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Dr. Jean F.E. Marchat

920,000 Dept. or Agency: WHODate: March 19 l

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Rtised by: P. EngelmannVery high priority for the long-term development of ltem(s) Revised: 1Ihnealth se_rvicezs at cor nity levels. Dept. or Agency: IBED

Date: 7/20/71

- 53 -Fom NO. 386.DI INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOWR INTERNATIONAL. FINANCE

11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 3-2(2)(to be filled in when possible)

I. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: P

l F<l~~~~~~~~~~~Pblic HealtCh 1 36I

Statistician 1 36

Consultants:

Social Economist, Opera-

tional Research Specia-list, System Analyst,

Sociometrv Snecialist, 4 80Other Consultants . .18

i ~~~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~ ~ ~~~~Total: 6 170_General Economist 1 12

(b) Local Professional Staff: Assistant Statistician 2 72

CompDuter staff ProvriS. 6

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Comutr Tystat! D(roiv 62Clerk_ T o as requireDd r_r72

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign local TotalCurrency Currency _

(a) Professional Staff Costs , 700,000 K 130,000 830,000(b) Equipment 30, OG oS 10,000 40,000

(c) Other (Travel. non-prof. staff, etc.): 20,000 30,000 50,000

(d) Total 7 5 000 170,000 920,000

3. OTHER O$4ENTSThe general weakness of Public Health Services, the very low real involvement of Environ-

mental Health Services into the matters of this specific sector and the extremely rapid

inacrease of out-patients attendances to health institutions raise very serious problems.

From 1965 to 1968, the index of out-patients' attendances rose from 100 to 130, when the

index of population growth rose only to 108. The total out-patients attendances, each

working day (300 days a year), represented 1.03% of the Tanzanian population in 1965 and

15 34% in 1968. On an average, the number of out-patients attendances at each dispensary

for one working day was 197 in 1968 and at each Government hospital 638 in 1969. Many

medical units are completely overwhelmed: the high number of patients blocks the way to

other health activities and absorb the main part of financial resources.

On the other hand, three types of services are dealing with out-patients: local authorities

for 62% of patients, Government services for 23% and voluntary agencies for 15%. An

improved coordination and, eventually, a better distribution of the load of patients at-

tendances should be considered.

In other areas, the health component of several projects and activities frequently does not

receive proper consideration. In general, health activities are not really ccordinated

wlth or integrated into other activities of the community.

A new integrated approach of basic health activities,

linked with other activities of the community, is Supplement Prepared by: Dr. Jean P.E.Marchat

tlherefore urgently needed. Dept. or Agency: WHO

Date: March 1971

Supplenent Revised by:|

Item(s) Revised:

DeDt. or Agency:_

__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

- 5L - .'704M NC. 3i;6 INTERNAT!ONAL DEVELOPMENT (NTERNAT!ONAL GA?NK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCT ION ANO DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESThENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 3-3(1)

IArea: Country: Sector(s):

Eastern kfrica Tanzania Health and Population

! OF PROPOSED STUDY: TRAINING PROGRAM FOR PARAMEDICAL PERSONNEL

12. PURPOSE: To establish a national training program for paramedical personnel (professionaland awxiliary staff) which will be task and team-work oriented.

SCOPE: To unify, re-orient and coordinate the paramedical training program of Tanzania by:(a) preparing organizational schemes for a central coordinating body (to coordinate bet-

ween schools, faculty of medicine and other medical or paramedical bodies);(b) defining tasks to be performed by staff members, related to needs;I c) defining categories of personnel to be trained;(d) defining educational objectives;(e) preparing national curricula;(f determining duration of courses, pedagogical methods, types of examinations;(g) planning manpower resources required;th determining number and location of necessary schools

, t -preparing re-organizational scheme cf existing scho&lsdetermining number and categories of teachers;

i ,kpre4arin4 program for re-orientation and training of teachers...ouGn uD&ta5d~ 3t~~1 ~ ~ O) uliner AvaI iavie vaia ic) txpectea uata troDiems

Anrnual Reports,Ministry of Health

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting DateFr'71-2

18 months

l. COMMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

WHO is interested in supporting this study



I Coordination and development of paramedicaltraining program. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Dr.Jean P.E. Marchat

200,000 Dept. or Agency: dODate: March 1971

a. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: _ _X

High priority Item(s) Revised:Dept. or Agency:

Date:




i. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Education and Training(general) 1 18

Pedagogical methods 1 6Manpower planning 1 6Other specialized consul-tants to prepare curriculz 18

Total: 3 48

(b) Local Professional Staff : Architect 1 3

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Clerk; Typist; Driver 3 30

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency l

(a) Professional Staff Costs : 190,000 7,500 197,500(b) Equipment 500 - 500(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 2,000 - 2,000

(d) Total 192,500 7,500 200,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

At the end of 1969, 52 training centers were operating in Tanzania (21 belonging to theGovernment; 31 to the voluntary agencies) to train 16 different categories of paramedicalstaff.

From 1965 through 1969 a total of 2,223 paramedical staff has been qualified: 981 inGovernment centers and 1,242 in voluntary agencies centers.

Out of the total staff qualified, the voluntary agencies gave qualification to:Medical Assistants 100%Midwives 100%Nurses 73%Rural Medical Aides 27%Village Midwives 25%Laboratory Auxiliaries 20%

At present, the coordination between schools is rather weak and training programs shouldbe reviewed and amended.

This study should be coordinated with:(a) Study 2-3 in Chapter 2 of this Volume (Education and Training):"Inventory of

Public and Private Facilities for Para-medical and Technical Education & Training"; Supplement Prepared by: Dr.Jean P.E. Marchatand Dept. or Agency: WHO

Date: March 1971(b) the WHO/UNDP assisted project on Medical

Education. Supplement Revised by:

Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 56 -FoRM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIOfAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION




1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: SCHISTOSOMIASIS CONTROL AT THE COMMUNITY LEVEL

2. PURPOSE: To assess the capacity of local communities (especially Ujamaa Villages) to carryon schistosomiasis control measures on a self-help basis and to make appropriate recommenda-

tions for extending to other regions the pilot scheme now being undertaken in the Mwanza

region.

3. SCOPE: Within five Ujamaa Villages, selected in different ecological areas:

(a) to assess the ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic local situation;

(b) to prepare, in cooperation with the community and in close collaboration with the WHO

assisted project Tanzania-39 "Schistosomiasis Control," a plan of work, self-help

oriented, for the implementation, under local particular features, of control acti-

vities and related measures;

(c) to advise on and to monitor the implementation process;

(d) to evaluate the results achieved; and

(e) to prepare appropriate recommendations for the required training of community residents

and an outline and budget of all related technical assistance.


Reports (bibliography included), Annual reports of the

WHO assisted project, Ministry of Health

Tanzania-39

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting DateFy 7 2. 3

36 months


WHO is interested in supporting this study.

The Ministry of Health should coordinate this effort with the Ministry of Agriculture

and Regional Acdninistrations.



Schistosomiasis control by the population at

the local level. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: Dr. jean P.E.Marchat

640,000 Dept. cr Agency: WHODate: March 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P. Engelmann

High priority as the disease spreading rapidly. Item(s) Revised: 2Dept. or Agency: IBRD

Date: 7/20/71

- 57 -For?M No. 386.01 iNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL-BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

( I 1-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 3-h(2)


(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Public Health Administrato /Epidemiologist 1 36

Sanitary Engineer 1 36Sociologist 1 18Health Educator 1 6Statistician 1 3

Total: 99Health Inspector 13

(b) Local Professional Staff: Health Assistant 6 216

I c) Local Supporting Staff Entomologist Assistant 3 108(;{c) Local Supporting Staff :HatlEuaos27Health Educators 2 72

Clrkn. TSypigt , J.ive =_____ 200

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency Toa

(a) Professional Staff Costs 350,000 160,000 510,000

(b) Equip went 50,000 - 50,000


(d) Total :450000 190,000 1640,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Schistosomiasis is a very prevalent and widespread infection in Tanzania, Sh. haematobium

being common (about 83% of all Schistosomiasis cases), while Sh. mansoni is generally less

common. In 1969, the number of cases reported by hospitals was as follows:

Sh. haematobium Sh. mansoni Total

92,114 15,291 107,403

lhe disease is ranked sixth among all causes of at-patients morbidity with an incidence of

2.h% and tenth for in-patients morbidity with an incidence of 1.34%.

In the pilot area, for instance (WHO assisted project, Tanzania 39, tSchistosomiasis

Control") the prevalence of vesical bilharziasis is around 60%, rising to over 90% in

the 10-l14 years dd age group. In Mwanza area, intestinal bilharziasis is highly endemic,

rising to over 53% on the 11-13 years old age group.

Supplemnent Prepared by: Dr. Jean P.E.Marchat

Dept. or Agency: WHO

IDOate: March 1971


item('s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

FORM m '. 386 tNTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL ANK FOR NTERNATIONAL FINANCEASSOCIAT;CN FECONSTRI-CTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION




i- hAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: CONTROL OF QUALITY AND DISTRIBUTION OF DRUGS

To establish a Central Laboratory for the control of drugs(for human andanimal use) and to institute a control scheme for the distribution of drugs.

3. SCOPE:(a) To assess the present conditions of importation, national fabrication, retail

packaging, storage and distribution of drugs;

(b) To prepare a plan and budget for the establishment and implementation of aCentral Laboratory for the control of quality of drugs;

(c) To propose a control system for each stage of drug distribution and makerecommendations for the required legislation.

4. BACXGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems

WHO is reported to have startedsome work in this area in 1971.

5. TIMING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Dat'Y72-3

three months

6. CO"4ENT OK POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

WHO is interested in supporting this study


(a) Description (b) Estimated investment (US$ equivalent)(a) Improvement of pharmaceutical legislation(b) Laboratory for the control of quality of drugs (c) Financing Need and Potential Source(c) Control of the distribution of drugs.

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by:Dr. Jean P.E. Marchat

25,000 Dept. or Agency: WHODate: March 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P. Elgelman

High priority. Item(s) Revised: 4(a), 9Dept. or Agency: _ _BRD

Date: 7/20/71




1. TIENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff:Chemist 1 3Pharmaceutical legisla-

tion 1 1

Total: 2 4

(b) Local Professional Staff Architect 1 2

(c) Local Supporting Staff : Clerk, Typist. Driver 3 5


(a) Professional Staff Costs 20,000 4 ,000 24,000(b) Equipment _

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 500 500 1 000(d) Total 20,500 4,500 25,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

The total amount of imports of drugs for home consumption was as follows:

1968 1969Total:Sh 20,705,300 21,482,504US$ (Equiv.) 2,957,700 3,068,929

Per capita:Sh - 1.80US$ (Equiv.) - 0.26

Supplement Prepared by: Dr.JeanP.E.MarchatDept. or Agency: WHODate: March 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 60 -

CHAPTER 4

IIDUSTRY

Background and Key Issues

1. For a detailed description of the Tanzanian industrial sector,its major prob]ems and its outlook for the future, see the IBRD Report ofApril 16, 1971l1

2. Because of the rapid depletion of diamond reserves, Tanzania'sminerals industry has now reached a critical stage and the Governmentconsiders it urgent that substitute minerals wzith export potential befound quickly. While at present, coastal black sands and tin appear tobe good candidates for boosting export earnings, there are also indica-tions that Tanzania may have very extensive mineral endowments.

3. The preinvestment study program recommended herein concentrateson minerals. In addition, one study on large-scale manufacturing (ironand steel) is recommended (others may develop from the regional industrialstudies proposed in Volume V).

4. It appears that the coastal beach sands above and below Dar esSalaam are similar in mineral content to those presently mined inMozambique. Preliminary investigation indicates the presence of signi-ficant quantities of ilmenite, rutile, zircon and garnet, of which thefirst two contain concentrations of titanium. There is currently a strongworld market for both ilmenite and rutile, based on their titanium content.Study 4-1 is therefore proposed.

5. Although tin deposits are currently worked on a modest scale,very little geological study has been undertaken and selective prospectingcould turn up rich deposits, which would allow expansion of the presentmining operations. A thorough survey would aid the Government in makingthe changes necessary for efficient tin exploitation. The prcposed study4-2 also calls for recommendations to improve efficiency in both themining and marketing of tin.

6. The existence of coal and iron deposits has been knowm forseveral years, but prospects for coal and iron ore projects have beenenhanced by the new railway and by preliminary studies indicating thatit is technically feasible to produce steel frcm Liganga iron ore andMchuchuma coal. The Government has recently assigned high priority tocoal, iron ore and steel production. Studies of these subjects there-fore have become urgent and should provide the basis for appropriateinvestment decisions in the future.

/1 Industrial Dpvelopment in East Africa: Progress, Policies, Problemsand Prospects, Part III: Tanzania. Part I: East African Communityshould be read in conjunction with Part III.

- 61 -

7. Stud-'es 4-3 and 4-4 are proposed to determine the feasibilityof mining Mchuchuma coal and Liganga iron ore, respectively, and Study 4-5is to investigate the establishment of an iron and steel complex. It isrecnmmended that the studies be undertaken as separate assignments becausethere are possibilities of producing coal and iron ore primarily forexport. The coal and iron ore studies should begin before that for steel,as the results of the former studies will be necessary to complete thelatter.

List of Proposed Studies

Suggested EstimatedS-tudy Starting Duration CostNo. lName of Proposed Study Year (Months) (US $ Million)

(*) 4-1 Coastal beach sands - Yining FY71-2 13 .30potential

(-4) 4-2 Karagwe Tinfield Development FY71-2 6 .08

4-3 Development of Mchuchuma/ FY71-2 15 .15Ketawaka coal deposits

4-4 Development of the Liganga FY71-2 9 .15iron ore deposits

4-5 Iron and Steel Manufacturing FY72-3 6 .15in Tanzania

Total:

(*) Highest priority studies.

- 62 -FORM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE(1I-d9j ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: L1 (1)


East Africa Tnnzania Industry

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Coastal beach sands - tiining potential

2. PURPOSE: To determine the feasibility of mining black sands deposits North and South* of

Dar Es Salaam and prepare a recommended program for development.

3. SCOPE: The study shouldV

(a) carry out a detailed geological survey of the coastal black sands North and South of

Dar Es Salaam to

1) locate the various deposits,

2) assess the exjmnt of the reserves at each location,

3) define the geological and chemical characteristics of each deposit,

L) identify the most promising deposits;

(b) make a market survey to determine the export possibilities for Tanzanian heavy mineral

sands containing ilmenite, nitile, zircon and garnet, through 1985;

(c) recommend potential mining sites and for each site; (cont!d as k-Az 7, .t.a 3)


Preliminary investigation - Mineral division (Ministry of Industry) (1970)

Report by M.A. Walls Worth-Bell (1957)


Phase I: items (a) and (b) of scope - 9 months FY71-2

Phase II: items (c) and (d) of scope - h months (if conclusion of Phase I positive)

13


Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Division of Mineral Resources)



Not known.

Black sand mines North and South of Dar Es SAiaam. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (USs equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A.Cracco/W. Cole

300,000 (tentative, see item 1, page 2) Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPDDate: Feb. 5, 1971

9. STAFF'S COMMENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: _

| bigh priority based on -the potential breakthrough Iten(s) Revised:

that black sands exports could create in the mineralsector. Dept. or Agency:

Date:II_ _ _

- 63 -FURM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATICNAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIATICN RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



1. TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Totai Man-Months


Determination of staffing will follow a more detaileddefinition of scope.

Total: _




(a) Professional Staff Costs

(b) Equipment

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.):

(d) Total

3. OTHER COMMENTS(cont'd from 4-l(i), item 3 t1ScopeII):

1) recommend a specific method of extraction and the size of the mining operations tobe undertaken;

2) assess the infrastructure and transport costs related to its proposed size andlocation;

3) estimate the capital requirements related to its development and the operating

costs involved;) on the basis of estimated revenues and costs appraise its economic and financial

viabiLlity.d) recommeni a program for developrent of mining Tanzaniani black sands.

General Information:Coastal beaches, North and South of Dar Es Salaam, have been found to contain ilmenite,rutile, zircon and garnet. Rutile and to a lesser extent ilmenite, contain high concentratic nE

of titanium wlhich is exneriencing a growing world-wide demand. Particularly encouraging isthe fact that in nearby Mozambique, black sands containing workable ilmenite are alreadyexploited in the north and the south of the country.At a time when Tanzania's mineral development is reaching a critical stage because of theforecasted phasing out of the Mwradui diamond mines, the exploitation of the heavy mineralb:Lack sands could be a major breakthrough in the mineral sector.Preliminary investigations have indicated that mining of the Tanzanian black sands wouldnot present any technological or infrastructural pro-blems and that operations could be done on a large Supplement Prepared by: A. Cracco/w. Colemechanized scale. Dept. or Agency: IBRI):IPD

Date: February 5, 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 64 -FORM No. 386 INTERNAT TERNATIAL EANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(1I-69} ASSOCIAT10' iRCONSTRUCTION AMD DEVELOPMENT CORPORATICER

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 144 (l)


East Africa Tanzania Industry

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUOY. Karagwe Tinfield Development

2. PURPOSE: To survey tin reserves and recommend a program for efficiently exloiting them.

3. ScoPE: This study should comprise:(a) a detailed geological survey of the tinfields in order to locate the most important

tin pockets and assess the extent and the characteristics of the ore reserves;

(Kb recommendations on technical and operational changes to improve efficiency;

(c ) a review of the present organizational structure and recommendations regarding the

establishment of an organization capable of:

(1) operating the Kyerma Syndicate Mine.

(2) organizing a marketing scheme aimed at controlling and increasing local sales

and exports of tin;(d) Preparation of a phased program and budget for development of the tin mining indlustry.


5. TIHING: (a) Duration and Phasing of Study (b) Desired Starting Date

Phase I (a) of scope - 3 months

Phase II (b), (c) & FY71-?

(d) of scope- 3 months

0

6. COMENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Dlivision of Mineral Reso-urces)


(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (IS$ equivalent)

Expansion of tin mining operation.s in Karagwe Not known.(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

B. DRDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (USS equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Cracco/-,W. Cole

Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPD80, 000 Date: Feb. 5, 1971


Important considering the increase in tin exports Item(s) Revised:

which will result from the improvement of the

mining operations in the Karagwe region. Dept. or Agency _

Date:

FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE




i TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Geologist 1 6

Engineers (Mining) 1 3

Marketing Consultant 1 2Financial Analyst 1 2

Total: 4 13


(c) Local Supporting Staff : Geological Assistant 2 12Drivers 3 18



(b) Equipment 15,000 15,000


(cl) Total 68,000 12,000 80,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

Economic deposits of tin are confined to the Karagwe Tinfield where tin has

been mined on a small-scale basis for many years. The geological investigations

carried out in the past were incomplete and may not have located the richest de-

posits. Richer deposits might serve as a basis for more efficient miningprogram. A selective prospecting in the Karagwe area is therefore urgent.

Supplement Prepared by: A. Cracco/W. Cole

Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPD

Date: February 5, 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 66 -

Fo9m N1. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL SANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(II-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION




I. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Development of Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal deposits.

2. PURPOSE:

Complete the geological survey of the Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal fields and appraise the

technical and economic feasibility of developing the mining of coal in this area.

3. SCOPE:(a) Complete the geological survey of the Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal fields. More pre-

cisely the study group should:(1) collect and analyze the available geological data;

(2) prepare and carry out a limited and preliminary exploration program for the

Ketawaka area;(3) after completion of the Ketawaka survey, appraise all the geological data

obtained in order to identify the most promising sites of the Mchuchuma/

Ketawaka coalfield;(4) prepare and carry out a detailed exploration program for the selected

coal-

field sites; (cont'cd on i-3(2), item 3)


- Geological mapping Ketawaka/Mchuchuma coalfield by McKinlay. Report published 1954.

- Investigation by the Colonial Development Co. (C.D.C.) of the Ruhuhu Coalfields (West

Mchuchuma)- Prefeasibility study of the potential development of Liganga iron

ore and Mchuchuma/

Ketawaka coal deposits (Atkins Hatch & Associates - Canada) (1970)

- See proposed studies 4-5 and 4-6


Phase I (a) & (b) - 10 months

Phase II (c)& (d) - 5 months FY71-2

ii months


Ministry of Commerce and Industry (Division of Mineral Resources)



Coal mine (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Cracco/WV. Cole

150,000 Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPDDate: February 5, 1971


Important as the coal could serve-as the basis Item(s) Revised:

for reducing local iron ore or could be exported. Dept. or Agency:

Date:

_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~. ____ ..___ __

-61-FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIAT1IN RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREiNVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 4_ __2)


TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Geologist 1 9

Marketing Consultant 1 2

Mining Engineer 1 5Industrial Economist 1 2Financial Analyst 1 4Trarnsport Consultant 1 1

Total: 6 23


(c) Local Supporting Staff : Assistant 2 18Driver 2 18



(b) Equipment 26,000 ?26,o0o

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 12,000 31,000 43o00O

(cd) Total 119,000 31,000 150,0O

3. OTHER COOMENTS(cont'd from 4-3(1), item 3 "Scope"):

(b) Carry out a market survey which will define the size and distribution of the

Tanzania, EAC and foreign markets for coal and identify the export potential for

Tanzania coal in the EAC, the other neighbouring countries and those located around

the Indian Ocean;

(c) On the basis of the geological and market findings, recommend a mining site and

appraise, technically and economically, the feasibility of mining coal in the

Mchuchuma/Ketawaka region; (d) Recommend scope and budget for any further study.

General Comments:The Ketawaka7Mchuchuma coalfield is located 30 miles SW of the Liganga iron ore deposit.

The coal bearing beds occupy 24 sq. miles but 7.5 sq. miles of this, in the Western Mchuchum

part, have been extensively explored and have been found to contain 189 million long tons

of extractable coal reserves. Underground exploration in the Ketawaka East part of the

field has not been undertaken and appears urgent so that the reserves, structure and charac-teristics of the whole area may be assessed.The Ketawaka/Mchuchuma coal is medium to high volatile bituminous, with ash contents and

calorific values comparable to other Karoo coals.

Characteristics: moisture 15%, fixed carbon 60.3%, volatile matter 24.0%, ash 14.2%.In 1970, Atkins Hatch & Associates, conducted a preliminary study of the potential de-

velopment of Liganga iron ore and Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal deposits. The conclusion of this

study along with the results of previous investigations indicated that it is technicallyfeasible to produce steel from Liganga iron ore and _

Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal and that it is feasible to Supplement Prepared by:A.Cracco/W. Cole

exploit coal deposits irrespective of their Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPD

application in steel making process. Date: February 5, 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 68 -F 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION ANO DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREiNVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 4



- NMWE OF PROPOSED STUDY: Development of the Liganga iron ore deposits.I-_

2. PUWPOSE: To determine the economic and financial feasibility of mining iron ore in the

Liganga area.

3. SCOPE:

(a) On the basis of world supply, demand and quality standards, assess the potential

marketability of the Liganga iron ore in the ElC, the other neighbouring countries

and overseas, particularly around the Indian Ocean;

(b) Depending upon the conclusions of the market study indicate whether any benefaction

which would improve the Liganga ore and make it marketable, should be required and

could be undertaken;

(c) Review the geological data and recommend a mining site, a specific method of extraction

and the size of the operations to be undertaken;

(d) For the proposed mine:-assess the infrastructure and transport cost related to its size and, location

-cont'Id on 4-4(2 ), item 3-4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expectea bafa-Problems

- Detailed geological survey - Geological Survey Department (1957/58)- Prefeasibility study of the potential development of Liganga iron ore and Mchuchuma/

Ketawaka coal denosits. Aikins Hatch & Associates - Canada (1970)

- See proposed study 4-5.

- Ongoing study of prospects for a multinational iron and steel industry (Maxwell Stamp)


Phase I (a) and (b) - 4 months FY71-2

Phase II (c) (d) & (e)- 5 months (if bench and pilot plant tests (see comments)

9 and/or conclusion of Phase I are positive)


Financing for this stucd has been provided by NORAAD in FY70-71.



- Iron ore mine/s in the Liganga region Not known.

- Iron/steel comrplex in the Liganga region (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

S. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: A. Cracco/h. Cole

150,000 Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPDDate: February 8, 1971

9. STAFF'S COM4ENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY- Sheet Revised by: P. Engelmann

Item(s) Revised: 6, 9

Dept. or Agency: IBRD

Date: 7/20/71

69 -FoRo;, s. 366.01 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

(II.69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION



FTIENTATIVE STAFFING Type of Specialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Marketing Consultant 1 3

Geologist 1 3Mining Engineer 1 9Industrial Economist 1 3Financial Analyst 1 4Transport Consultant 1 3Production Engineer 1 3

Total 7 2 __ _


(c) Local SuDporting Staff Driver, Stenographer, etc. 2 18

2. TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency Toa

(a) Professional Staff Costs 98,000 98,000(b) Equipment 8,ooo .8,ooo

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 114,ooo 30,000 44,000

(d) Total 120,000 30,000 150,000

3. OTHER COM4ENTSI;cont'd from 4-4(i), item 3 "Scope"):

(2) estimate the capital requirements related to its development and the operatingcosts involved in the mining of iron ore;

(3) on the basis of estimated revenues and costs appraise its economic and financialviability;

(e) Recommend scope and budget for any further study.General Comments:The titaniferous magnetite deposits in the Liganga area are located 30 miles NE of theKetawaka/Mchuchuma coalfield. The deposits have been mapped in detail and some of themagnetite occurrences have been examined.T'otal iron reserves are estimated at 78 million tons and their quality is about 48.8% Fe,12.8% TiO2 and 0.67% V20In 1970, Atkins Hatch & issociates carried out a prefeasibility study which indicated thatthe ore deposits are of a sufficient magnitude and size to satisfy the future Tanzanian andEAC needs and to allow exports; the Liganga iron ore shows consistency in chemical analysis,vanadium, but no titanium, could be economically recoverable as a co-product; it is tech-nically feasible to produce steel from the Liganga iron ore.The Tanzanian Government d&dided to undertake, in 1971, bench and pilot testing usingTanzanian iron ore, coal andlimeatone. The tests have recently been conducted in Norway

and Germany, assessing the technical prerequisites for future steel production inranza;nia.

Supplement Prepared by: A. Cracco/W. ColeDept. or Agency: IBRDPIPDDate: February 8, 1971

Supplement Revised by: .__

Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

D;ate:

70 --F:,M _N(. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPM2F. NTERNATICkIAL BANK FOR INTERNAThONAL FINANCE

Ii 69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCT1Z4 AN[D DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: .4-5(J)Area'. Country: Sector(s)i


1. %1AWE OF PROPOSED STUDY. Iron and Steel Manufacturing ia Tanzania.

2- PuRPCSE: To determine the general feasibility of manufacturing steel in Tanzania using Ligang:ron ore and Ketawage/Mchuchuma coal and to recommend any additional studies deemednecessary.

_ A~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.13 SCOPE: (a) The study should commence with a review of the results of the bench and pilot

plant tests to be conducted in Norway and West Germany in early 1971 and determine if, tech,nically the development of a steel industry could proceed in Tanzania on the basis ofLiganga iron ore and Ketawaka/Mchuchuma coal as raw materials;

(b) if the results of (a) are positive the study should provide recommendations on thesteel process to be applied, the general location and size of the steel complex to be built1 nd the products to be manufactured. Finally, based upon estimates of infrastructure andtransportation costs, capital requirements, operating costs, sales and export potential,

I the stu,dy should also include an economic and financial assessment of the feasibility ofimplementing a steel manufacturing project in Tanzania;

(c, Define the scope and budget for appropriace additional studies.

4. BACKGROUND: (a) Related Studies (b) Other Available Data (c) Expected Data Problems- Prefeasibility study of the potential development of Liganga iron ore and Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal deposits. Atkins Hatch & Associates - Canada (1970)

- Ongoing regional of prospects for a multinational iron and steel industry (seeVol. V, -Chapter.2)


Phase I (a) - 1 monthsPhase II (b)&(c} 5 months (if conclusion of Phase I positive) FY72-3

6. COW4ENT ON POTENTIAL STUDY SPONSORS:

Ministry of Commerce & Industry (Civision of Mineral Resources)

7. FROJECI(S) EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM STUDY (if known):

(a) Description (b) Estimated Investment (US$ equivalent)h0, 000, 000

Steel complex in the Liganga region. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

B. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent). Sheet Prepared by: A, Cracco/W. Cole

15 0 000 Dept. or Agency: IBRD:IPDDate: Feb. 9, 1971

9. STAFF'S CO"MENT ON PRIORITY RANKING OF STUDY: Sheet Revised by: P. EaigelmannItem(s) Revised: |4(a), 9

Dept. or Agency: IBRD

t-____________________ G'_________ Date: 7/20/71

_ 71 _FORM No. 386.01 INTERNATICNAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATICNAL FINANCE

(11-69) ASSOCIATION RECONSTRUCT IoN AND DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SUPPLEMENT No.: 4- 5 (2)


I TENTATIVE STAFFING Type of SPecialist Number on Team Total Man-Months

(a) Foreign Professional Staff: Steel Consultant (includiLgChemical Engineer) 2 12

Marketing Consultant 1 3Economist 1 3Financial Analyst 1 4Transport Consultant 1 2Production Engineer 1

Total: 7 28


(c) Local Supporting Staff : Driver, steno, etc. 3 18

2- TENTATIVE STUDY BUDGET (US$ equivalent) Foreign Local TotalCurrency Currency

(a) Professional Staff Costs 98 ,000 98 ,000(b) Equipment 8 000 000

(c) Other (Travel. non-prof. staff, etc.): 1 ' °000

(d) Total 120 n .-

3. OTHER COMMENTS

General c amnents:

The Government of Tanzania has decided to undertake, in 1971, bench and pilot plant test-irig using Liganga iron ore and Mchuchuma/Ketawaka coal. The tests are to be conducted inNorway and West Germany and should provide information regarding:1) the technical conditions for steel making in Tanzania;2) the suitability of the Electrokemisk and the Stelco-Lurgi steel making processesi3) the potentiality of recovering vanadium from the Liganga ore;4) capital equipment requirements.The preliminary sampling and mining program will be conducted by contractors underthe supervision of Tanzanian personnel.

If this study results in a positive finding as to feasibility, it should beexplored further in the context of Proposed Regional Study 4-1, Volume V.

Supplement Prepared by: A. Cracco/W. ColeDept. or Agency: IBRD:IPDDate: February 8, 1971

Supplement Revised by: _

Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 72 -

CHAPTE'B' 5

TRANSPORTATION (Sector No. 8)

t13- r Lntgil r

Large areas of Tanzania are still not provided with modern.ransport links, and tha principal road, rail and air facilities have tendedto develop along fairly well-defined corridors, rather than as networksdesigned to serve whole areas. Each of the main corridors starts from the^apital, Dar es Salaam, whose seaport handles the preponderant proportion ofcLnternational freight traffic.

2. The "Northern" corridor to Tanga, Arusha and the Kenya border(about 950-km) is now served by a bitumenized trunk road, a railway lineand fairly extensive air services. A notable addition to its air facili-ties will soon be added when the Kilimanjaro International Airport comesinto operatian later this year.

3. The "Central" corridor (about l1,OO-km) to the Lake Victoria andLake Tanganyika areas is served principally by rail and lake serrices, theroad route being bitumenized for onl'y 200-ke out of Dar es Salaam.

4. The "Tan-Zamn corridor to the Zambian border (about l,OOO-km)will soon be served throughout by a fully bitumenized road and by the newrailway under conr;truction, both of which have the principal purpose ofDroviding the main route for Zambia's international traffic.

5. The "Southern" coastal link to Lindi., Htwara and Masai (about6OO-km) still has no reliable road cornection and has to rely largely oncoastal shipping and air services.

6. One result of the relatively limited surface transport facilities,and of the distances involved in a country of this size, is that Tanzanuiarelies on schedulod air trailsport to a much greater extent than the restof East Africa for internal passenger movements. The developmmcnt of airfreight transport, however, is still in its infancy.

Key Issues and Proposed Transport Studies

(a) Roads

7. Road development has to be directed towards two objectives. Thefirst is to extend the network of secondary and minor roads feeding into theexisting trunk routes. The most striking example of this need is along the"Tan-Zam" corridor, where the much improved trunk route has not yet beenaccompanied by plans for a supplementary feeder network needed to open uplarge areas cf the country. The feeder roads should be closely coordinatedwith agricultural and other development proposals for these areas. Thesecond objective is to extend and improve the linited trunk road network;;for exarwple, to provide an adequate link betueen the Lake Victoria areaand the eastern part of the country via either the

- 73 -

"Central" or "Northern" corridors, and between Dar es Salaam and Mtwara alongthe "Southern" corridor.

8. In total, therefore, there are likely to be numerous economicallyviable opportunities for road development competing for limited financialand physical resources during the next decade, and the task of determiningpriorities is urgent. So fa; the program in the Second Five-Year Plan, in

which some 25 percent of total expenditure was reserved for road construc-tion, has been dominated by the Tan-Zam road and two other transportationprojects (Kilimanjaro International Airport, and a deep water jetty at Tangafor a new fertilizer plant). In addition, the Economic Survey and AnnualPlan 1970-71 reports that "the feasibility of certain projects has comeinto question for a number of reasons, including upward revision in costs,reconsideration of benefits or other changes in local conditions".

9. A study to review road investment priorities is thereforeneeded (Study No. 8-1). The Government is confident that such a study canbe successfully undertaken by the newly-created planning unit of theMinistry of Works, Communications and Labour; however, a recent Bank -

mission to appraise a Third Highway Project in Tanzania requested employmentof consulting services if the study has not been successfully completedwithin a reasonable time. This study should be followed by individual andmore detailed feasibility studies (Study No. &-2) for the selected roadsbefore proceeding to detailed engineering.

10. Equally important is the need to improve and expand road main-tenance and to strengthen the highway organization generally. USAID isfinancing a study to assess specific requirements in this respect.

(b) Other Modes

11. Tanzania's railway, port and air services are provided bycorporations owned jointly, through the East African Community, with the twoother member countries of the Community. These sub-sectors and relatedpreinvestment studies are discussed in Volume V of this Report. Althoughthe airports are owned and operated by the individual Member States, theseare also considered in Volume V in the context of air transport as a whole.

List of Proposed Studies

Suggested Duration EstjimabedStuidy Starting in Cost

No. Name of Proposed Study Year Months (US$ millions)

8-1 Highway Development Program1974-79 FY71-2 9 0.30

8-2 Highway Feasibility Studies FY72-3 5 0.25

Total: 0.55

- 71 -FORm No. 386 [NTERNATIONAL CEVELOPMAENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINATCE

f(I-69) ASSOCJATICON RECONSTRUCTION A4D OEVELOPMENT CORPORA710N

PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET o: _ 1 _

Area. iCountry: Sector(s):

: nEast Africa Tanzania Transportation

1. NAME OF ROPOSED STUOY: Highway Development Progra3t 1974-79

2. PURPOSE: (a) To recommend road sections for construction and improvement in the developmentprograms for the period 1974-79.

(b) To review the design standards and construction specifications currently in use,and recommend cnanges as appropriate,-for all types of roads included in the

. _ . . _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~development program.3. SCOPE:(a) Review and comment on the procedures and criteria employed for selecting items of road

construction and improvement in the Five Year Development Plan 1970-74;(b) Recommend any changes Ln procedure and criteria considered desirable for future planning;(c) Identify future traffic generating sources and prepare traffic forecasts for the entire

road system for the years 1974-83, with due regard to competing transport modes;(d) Review the priorities for road construction and improvement Ln fiscal year 1974, and

recommend the priorities, selected cn grounds of their economic justification, forfiscal years 1975 to 1979;

(e) Recommend standards of geometric and engineering design for road construction, inaccordance with projected traffic levels.


(i) East African Transport Study (1969)


Nine months FY71-2

6. COMMENT ON POTENTiAL STUDY SPONSORS:



Highway Development Program 1974-1979 25 - 35 million(c) Financing Need and Potential Source

IBRD/IDA

B. ORDER OF MAGNITUOE Of STUOY COST (USs equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: FDT Reid/DH Bickers300, 000 Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PNEA

Date: February 1971

9. STAFF'S COMENT ON PRIORITY RANKIG OF STUDY: High priority, Sheet Revised by:

because tne study, and ensuing feasibility studies, Iter(s) Revised:should be available as soon as possible as a gaide Dept. or Agency:for Bank Group's and other financing of roadprojects. Oate:






Highway Engineers 4 30

Economists 3 23

Total: 7 53

(b) Local Professional Staff: 3 24

(c) Local Supporting Staff : 3 24z


(a) I'rofessional Staff Costs 212,000 >O,000 262,000(b) iquipment

(c) Other (Travel, non-prof. staff, etc.): 20,000 1 181, 38,000

(d) -rotal 232,000 68, ooo 300,000

3. OTHER COMMENTS

This study is considered to be of primary importance because it is needed to:

(a) ensure that efficient procedures are used in selecting priorities for roadconstruction and improvement, and that the economic case for including roadsections in the development program is known before political, social andother criteria are considered; and

(b) promote the use of optimum design standards and specifications in accordancewith traffic requirements and economic criteria.

In selecting priorities for the 1974-79 period the study should use broadestimates of construction costs and benefits to rank the road sections in order oftheir net economic return. More precise estimates, based on preliminary engineeringand more specific investigation of economic benefits, will follow at a later stagefor the roads which are selected for feasibility studies (See Sheet No. 8-2).

Supplement Prepared by: D.H. BickersDept. or Agency: IBFdX/FMEA

Date: February 1971


Item(s) Revised:

Dept. or Agency:

Date:

- 76 -FoRM No. 386 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL FINANCE


PREINVESTMENT PROGRAM - STUDY DATA SHEET No.: 8-2 CL)


East Africa Tanzania Transportation

1. NAME OF PROPOSED STUDY: Highway Feasibility Studies

2. PURPOSE: To determine the feasibility of constructing and improving specified road

sections identified as of high priority in Study 8-1.

3. SCOPE: For each selected road section, the studies should compare alternatives of:(1) alignments; (2) design and engineering standards; and (3) timing of

construction.

For the major alternatives, benefits should be estimated after a detailed review of

present and prospective traffic demands and of any indirect economic effects; construction

costs should be based on preliminary engineering, field investigations and estimates of

construction quantities accurate to within 20%. By estimating the incremental benefits

and costs of each alternative the final recommendation for each road section should be

made on the criterion of optimising net economic benefits and, for the recommended

solution, the economic return should be estimated on a "with and without" basis.



About 5 months for each project studied. FY72-3




Construction projects for various types 25-- 35 million

of roads. 1974-79. (c) Financing Need and Potential Source

IBRD/IDA

8. ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF STUDY COST (US$ equivalent): Sheet Prepared by: D.H. Bickers

Depends on projects selected; Dept. or Agency: IBRD/PMEA

$250,000 is a notional estimate. Date: February 1971


An essential development from Study 8-1, to precede Item(s) Revised:

final engineering for specific road projects. Dept. or Agency:

Date:

I _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ._

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ _

ANNEX

HEALTH AND POPULATION

(iM) Health(ii) Population

ANNEX

HEALTH AND POPULATION

TABLE OF CONTENTSPage No.

(i) HEALTH

INTR ODUCTION ................................ 1

ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION ..................... ............ .*.*** 1

EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SITUATION ................. .6............ 2

NUTRITIONt .......... o.o.-os ... @@@o*@@XX***** 3

ORGANIZATION OF HEALTH SERVICES ............... 4.................

MEDICAL FACILITIES. ...... . ................ . 4

MEDICAL LABORATORIES ........ ......

HEALTH UNIT ... o..... ...o... ...........7

CHEAMCAL LABORATORY............................................ 7

NUTRITION FACILITIES............. ...... . . ..... .o.... ... .. 8..

OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH .. ......... ... .... o..... o...... . ...... .. 8

HEALTH EDUCATION UNIT ....... o... o...ooss....... o........... . 9

CENTRAL MEDICAL STORE ................................ 9

DRUGS AND SUPPLIES. ... ... ... ... o . o ... ... ......... . 9

HEALTH MANPOWER ...oo.o...... .o...o ...o.o..o.......6.o..... 10

HEALTH BUDGET .......... o.......... ....... oeo. o 12

MEDICAL SERVICES ........... ......... ........ 14

PRENATAI AND CHILD HEALTH CLINICS ............................. . 18

EDUCATION AND TRAINING ................. ............... . 19

THE SECOND FIVE-YEAR HEALTH PLAN (1969-74)o ........ ....*.*...* 21

(ii) POPULATION

DEMWGRAPHIC SITUATION .......................... 22

FAMILY PLANNING......... . . . . ....... .o..oo . ....... . .. .... . . 24

Page 1

(i) HEALTH

Introduction

1. In Tanzania, /1 medical care is provided free-of-charge for thegreat majority of the population through hospitals, health centers, anddislpensaries which are owned by the Central Government, local authorities,and voluntary agencies. In some cases reasonable fees are charged. Thetarget of one dispensary per 10,000 population, established by the Government,has been largely met. However, geographical distribution is still unevenand some villages do not have easily accessible health facilities. In1969 there were 117 hospitals -- 52 were owned by the Government, 59 by vol-untary agencies, and 6 were privately owned. At that time the total numberof hospital beds available was 24,383 - 12,000 of these beds were in in-stitutions owned by voluntary agencies, while only 1,043 of them were inprivate hospitals. In the whole country there are approximately two bedsper 1,000 population, but due to the uneven distribution by region, ratiosof less than one per 1,000 are common.

2. Approximately one-third of the live births in the country receivesome kind of medical or paramedical supervision. Infant mortality is around160-165 per 1,000. Association of infection and malnutrition is found in alarge proportion of infant and child deaths. Death rates of children underfive years of age are particularly high in the rural areas; according topartial figures, infant mortality may be as low as 90 per 1,000 in urbanareas compared with 160 for the rural population. The difference is evenmore marked in deaths of children 1-4 years of age, which are known to beclosely associated with environmental conditions; it is estimated that from1,000 live births, 100 children die before they are five years of age in therural areas, while in the towns the proportion is almost half that amount.

Environmental Sanitation

3. Less than 10 percent of the Tanzanian population has an adequatewater supply; the rest draws water from natural sources which have notbeen adequately treated. Often water has to be transported in buckets forsetveral miles; since dwellings are widely scattered in the rural areas, itis difficult to devise a concentrated piped-water scheme. During the firstplan an average of 60,000 families per year was provided with water. Theproposed development of Ujamaa villages throughout the country will encour-age concentrated housing, and the provision of water supplies is one of thetop priorities in this new type of village.

4. The principal health problems related to inadequate water supplyand sanitation are bacterial pollution and proliferation of the bilharzia

/1 All statistics in this annex refer to the mainland only, and do notinclude Zanzibar.

Page 2

vectors which are found in almost all shallow wells and local streams. Al--though water analysis is carried out, it is inadequate and requires improve-ment and the establishment of an adequate follow-up system. The developmentof rural water supplies has been given high priority but there are many dif-ficulties which hamper the implementation of these plans, mainly caused bydelays in procurement of materials, insufficient plant and transportationfacilities, and lack of sk:llled manpower.

5. In the urban areas although approximately 70 percent of the house-holds have access to piped water, less than one-third of the urban popula-tion in D)ar es Salaam and 16 other towns are served with piped water insidethe houses.

6. Only four towns have a partial sewerage system and waste watertreatment is available in one town. As might be expected, rural sanitationis of a low standard and there is need to develop a program for building pitlatrines and simple devices. Without these facilities, the contaminationof underground water is inevitable.

Epidemiological Situation

7. Several endemic infectious diseases require priority action ofthe health services. A number of epidemics concur to aggravate the healthproblems. The relatively limited preventive measures taken so far have hadlittle impact on the thousands of cases of malaria, schistosomiasis, tuber-culosis, leprosy, dysentery, helminthic infections, and venereal diseases.The group of infectious and parasitic diseases accounts for the largest num-ber of cases of illness and death. Among the principal causes of death ofhospital inpatients about 38 percent are of infectious ethiology. In orderof importance, the causes are: respiratory diseases (mainly pneumonia) 15percent, malaria 8 percent, tuberculosis of the lung 5.4 percent, tetanus4.6 percent, dysentery 2.2 percent, measles 1.9 percent, whooping cough 0.7percent, and helminthiasis 0.3 percent. Malnutrition (especially Kwashiorkorand other nutritional deficiencies) constitutes about 5 percent of institu-tional deaths, anemias take 4.2 percent, complications of pregnancy 3.5 per-cent and injuries 4.3 percent. These figures reveal only a very partial pic-ture of the total situation throughout the country.

8. Tuberculosis of the lung has a high rate of prevalence throughoutEast Africa. It is estimated that 40 percent of the population are alreadyinfected, while 1.2 percent are suffering from active tuberculosis disease,mainly the pulmonary type. Concurrently with the smallpox eradication cam-paign, 700,000 BCG vaccinations have been carried out recently. Leprosyprevalence is estimated at a minimum of 10 persons per 1,000 population.

About 5 persons per 1,000 are disabled. Less than half of the estimatednumber affected by the disease were under specific drug treatment in 1969.

Page 3

No active case finding is carried out -- neither follow--up nor contact trac-ing activities. However, some voluntary agencies 1/ have been operating lep-rosy control schemes and treatment with government agreement.

9. Dysenteries continue to produce many cases. Together with gastro-enteritis, it remains a widespread problem among young children, aggravatedby poor hygiene and malnutrition. The number of children permanently crip-pled by poliomyelitis is growing every year. A total of 262,196 childrenwas vaccinated in 1969, but only 25 Percent returned for a second dose and18 percent for a third dose. Measles is one of the leading epidemic dis-eases. The actual number of cases and deaths from this disease is not known,but partial evidence indicates that it is an important cause of morbidityand mortality in the rural areas, in association with malnutrition. Itranks in the tenth place as a cause of death in hospitals.

10. Smallpox seems to be under control as a result of a widespread eradication campaign; in 1970 there were 32 cases compared to more than 3,000 in1966. The occurrence of malaria continues largely unabated. It is the sec-ond cause of morbidity and mortality in health institutions. All four spe-cies of malaria occur, but Plasmodium falciparum is the most frequent, rep-resenting 90 percent of total cases. Plasmodium malariae is found in about10-20 percent of cases, but usually occurs in children, frequently mixedwith Plasmodium falciparum. Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium ovale infec-tic)ns occur in about 5 percent of childhood infections.

11. Schistosomiasis is a very prevalent and widespread infection inTanzania. Probably about 10 percent of the population have or have had vesi-ca:L bilharziasis. About 80 percent of the cases are caused by S. haematobium,Infections by S. mansoni are less common. Because of the complicated lifecycle of the schistosome parasite, control of the disease is a many-sidedproblem which varies from one endemic area to another. About 60 percent ofthe land area of Tanzania is infected by tse-tee fly. The number of casesof trypanosomiasis reported each year vary between 300-900 despite the rou-tinae control measures. These measures include aerial and ground spraying ofinsecticides and bush clearing.

Nutrition

12. The food supply is from time to time locally inadequate and seriousshortages have been reported. While the seriousness of dietary deficienciesis often underestimated, it has been noted that deficiencies in proteins,

/1 Some of the voluntary agency projects are the Swedish Norwegian RaddaBarnen Leprosy project in West Lake Region, the Geita/Sengerema LeprosyScheme in Mwanza Region, operated with Dutch assistance and smaller con-trol schemes operated by local institutions in Dodoma, Tabora, Mara, andSingida regions,

Page 4

fats, and vitamins and -- more often than generally believed -- deficienciesin the quantity of calories are prevalent aiixong the population. Malnutritionaffects approximately one-third of the chilt population.

Organization of Health Services

13. At the central level, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare iscomprised of two divisions: (a) health, and (b) social welfare and probation.Assisted by a parliamentary secretary and a principal secretary, it providesgeneral administration, coordination, and implementation of the public healthprograms and administers the budget.

14. The Health Division is under the responsibility of a chief medicalofficer, with the following sections:

a. curative services, including medical institutions, nursing,pharmaceutical services, and training;

b. preventive services, which coordinate all preventive andpublic health services and include units of occupationalhealth, port health, health education, nutrition, environ-mental sanitation, and training of public health personnel;and

c. other services, including units of medical stores, chemicallaboratory, central pathology laboratory, and dentistry.

15. The Social Welfare and Probation Division has responsibility forsocial welfare services throughout the country with special emphasis on careof destitutes, physically-handicapped persons, and delinquents. The divisionalso encourages voluntary welfare agencies to participate in welfare activi-ties and coordinates actions.

16. The country is divided into 17 health regions, each with a regionalmedical officer. The regions are subdivided into 61 districts; the healthauthority in each district is the district medical officer, in charge of thedistrict hospital. In actuality, there are only 52 districts with a govern-ment hospital. In nine districts, a hospital operated by a voluntary agencyfunctions as a district hospital. Sixty-four mobile teams are attached todistrict hospitals for supervision and public health programs. Local author-ities are responsible for operating 1,077 dispensaries, which are progres-sively being taken over by the Government.

Medical Facilities

17. In Tanzania, medical facilities are roughly categorized accordingto the three sectors involved: government, local authorities, and voluntaryagencies. As indicated in the following tables the Government handles abouthalf of hospital services, 1 percent of the dispensaries, and all of therural health centers, whereas voluntary agencies account for slightly overhalf of hospital services and 11 percent of dispensaries. Local authorities

are responsible for 80 percent of the dispensaries.

Page 5

Table 1: HEALTH ESTABLISHMENTS BY OWNERSHIP AND TYPE, 1964-69

Ownership and Type 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

Hospitals

Government 51 51 52 51 52 52Voluntary Agencies 52 54 55 53 58 59Private - 11 12 7 5 6

TOTAL 103 116 119 111 115 117

Rural Health Centers 31 34 37 40 46 50

Dispensaries

Government 15 14 15 16 20 21Local Authorities 811 880 896 980 1,041 1,077Voluntary Agencies 202 228 245 241 264 264Private - 206 199 211 181 161

TOTAL 1,028 1,328 1,355 1,448 1,506 1,523

Table 2: HOSPITAL BEDS BY OWNERSHIP AND TYPE, 1964-69

Ownership and Type 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969

In Hospitals

Government 5,800 5,904 6,097 6,125 6,383 6,888Voluntary.Agencies 5,555 5,964 6,319 6,476 7,285 7,677Private - 1,471 1,500 1,237 1,028 1,043

Subtotal 11,355 13,339 13,916 13,838 14,696 15,608

In Other Units

Government 1,649 1,639 1,710 1,768 1,710 1,740Local Authorities 2,336 2,779 2,238 3,051 2,969 2,472Voluntary Agencies 3,979 4,246 4,720 4,611 4,701 4,563

Subtotal 7,964 8,664 8,668 9,430 9,380 8,775

TOTAL 19,319 22,003 22,584 23,268 24,076 24,383

Page 6

Table 3: HEALTH ESTABLISHMENTS AND HOSPITAL BEDSBY OWNERSHIP AND SPECIALTY 1yO4 and 1yoy/

Hospital Number of Hospital BedsOwnership Establishments Number Percentand Type 1T64 1969 1964 19 1964

TOTAL - - 20,790 24,383 100.0 100.0

Government - - 7,449 8,628 35.8 35.4

General 51 52 5,800 6,888 27.9 28.2Mental 2 2 992 1,069 4.8 4.4Leprosy 2 2 71 81 0.3 0.3Tuberculosis 1 1 238 256 1.1 1.0Dispensaries 15 21 348 334 1.7 1.4

Local Authorities - - 2,336 2,472 11.2 10.1

Rural Health /Centers 31 50-a - 1,289 - 5.3

Dispensaries 811 1,077 - 1,183 - 4.9

Voluntary Agencies - - 9,534 12,240 45.9 50.2

Hospitals 52 59 5,555 7,677 26.7 31.5Dispensaries 202 264 3,979 4,563 19.1 18.7

Enterprises/b - - 1,471 1,043 7.1 4.3

Hospitals 11 6 - - - -Dispensaries 206 161 - - - -

/a Data for 1965.

/b The Central Government has taken over the existing rural healthcenters during the Five-Year Plan Period.

Page 7

Table 4: POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BED AND DISPENSARYBY ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISION, 1969

PopulationRegion Population per Bed Per Dispensary

Arusha 795 10,650Coast 2,519 5,066Dar es Salaam 368 78,380Dodoma 1,134 10,723Iringa 931 9,752Kigoma 1,263 8,384Kilimanjaro 831 11,573Mara 1,438 9,683b¶beya 1,113 10,320Morogoro 719 6,019Mtwara 855 12,063Mwanza 1,080 10,763Ruvuma 441 6,780Shinyanga 2,010 8,814Singida 899 8,235Tabora 686 8,994Tanga 588 8,019W4est Lake 646 8,757

Total Country-a 533 8,527

/a Calculated on the basis of 12,987,000 population for 1969.

Medical Laboratories

18. A new central pathology block is under construction at MuhimbiliHospital, with the main assistance from the Swiss Government. This new lab-oratory will play a triple role as a medical laboratory for the Dar es Salaamhospitals, as a teaching laboratory for doctors and technicians, and as areference laboratory for the whole country.

19. Regional laboratories are designed to provide a whole range of lab-oratory facilities except histopathology and, initially, bacterial culture.Five new laboratories are scheduted in the development program, and the exist-ing units are to be re-equipped with modern equipment and techniques in orderto improve their efficiency.

Health Unit

20. The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare plans to establish an en-vironmental health unit as soon as possible. It is assumed that this unitwill be adequately staffed and equipped also to encourage projects directlyrelated towards improving the public health. There are many public healthofficers and auxiliaries working in rural areas and their work could be sup-

Page 8.

ported and coordinated from the central environmental health unit. An in-

crease in the staff responsible for the operation and maintenance of piped-

water supplies is needed in order to allow 'or spare capacity. Thus an in-

tensive training program is required. Another problem faced by this unit

is the slow procedure for procuring materials and equipment. Among the other

activities connected with environmental san tation, the malaria and sleeping

sickness services, although understaffed anui underequipped, perform a very

difficult and useful work.

Chemical Laboratory

21. During 1968 a total of 5,858 samples were examined as follows:

Foodstuffs 299Industrial 1,091 (water 512)Forensic 4,468

The existing laboratory is housed in a cluster of outmoded small bungalowswhich is not satisfactory for the expensive scientific equipment that will

need to be accommodated.

Nutrition Facilities

22. The nutrition unit has been established to provide nutritional

services in rural areas to improve the nutritional status of the population,

especially pregnant and lactating women, and children under five years of

age. Among the many functions of the nutrition unit are surveys, laboratory

and dietary services, investigations of protein-rich foods and special nu-

tritional problems, school needs, seminars, and nine-month courses for health

and other staff in order to produce nutrition instructors.

23. Nutrition services have so far been established in 11 districts.

In most of these districts, these services are run by a mobile nutrition

team headed by a nurse trained in nutrition and assisted by three or four

orderlies. The team's activities include operation of the clinic for chil-

dren under five years of age and education in health and nutrition (including

cooking demonstratioiLs) for the mothers.

Occupational Health

24. The Dar es Salaam Group Occupational Health Service (DGOHS), estab-

lished in 1967, has grown from about 9 to over 50 member firms in 1969 and at

present serves over 12,000 workers. The Arusha Group Industrial Nursing Ser-

vice Scheme was started in 1968 and a similar one was initiated for Tanga

during 1969 by the DGORS.

25. Employees in the public services sector receive "free" (i.e., tax

subsidized) medical care in government and public clinics throughout the

country. Employees in the private sector are usually provided with some form

of free medical care, ranging from simple first aid at the place of work (the

minimum required by law) to comprehensive medical care including hospitaliza-

tion.

Page 9

Health Education Unit

26. The health education unit produces materials required for use inhealth education and successfully continues to broadcast radio programson health topics for teachers and primary school children.

Central Medical Store

27. The receipt, storage, and distribution of purchased medical sup-plies and the distribution of UNICEF supplies and free gifts from variouscountries are the main functions undertaken by the Central Medical Store.The demand for these supplies has increased so much in recent years that theprcvision of extra storage space and mechanization is now a necessity. Withthe! exception of some hospital equipment, most of the drugs and equipmentare! manufactured and prepared outside the country. In accordance with thenational policy of self-reliance, it is proposed to establish a tabletingmachine and an intravenous solutions plant in the Central Medical Stores.

Drugs and Supplies

28. The total import of drugs for all services and the private sectorare as follows:

Table 5: IMPORT OF DRUGS FOR DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION(in Sb thousands)

Item 1968 1969

Vitamins and provitamins 423.7 381.8Antibiotics 1,952.4 2,588.1Opium, cocaine, caffeine, quinine

and other alkaloids 2,198.4 2,245.3Hormones 67.3 26.8Glycosides 18.7 54.4Organotherapeutic glands 0.3 1.7Bacterial products, sera, vaccine 1,072.6 1,610.5Medicaments 14,971.9 14,573.9

TOTAL 20,705.3 21,482.5

Per capita/a 1.64 1.65

/a Per total population.

29. Government expenditures for drugs and supplies amounted to Sh12. 9 million in 1967/68 (18 percent of health expenditures) and Sh 15.4mdllion for 1968/69 (20 percent of health expenditures). Normally, anaverage of 65 percent of these sums are allocated for drugs.

Page 10

Table 6: ESTIMATED GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE ON DRUGS,1967/68 AND 1968/69

1967/68 1968/69

Government expenditure on drugs 8.4 Sh million 10.0 Sh million

Percentage of total domesticconsumption 40.6 percent 46.4 percent

Percentage of health budget 11.8 12.8 percentExpenditure per capita (inpatients and

new outpatient cases) 0.4 Sh 0.5 Sh

Health Manpower

30. There is a shortage of medical and paramedical personnel in thecountry. Furthermore, the personnel available are often unevenly distributedgeographically and also among the sectors (government, voluntary agencies,and private sector). Of the 445 registered medical doctors, 43 percent areemployed in government services, 25 percent by voluntary agencies, and aboutone-third are working in private practice. Nearly 20 percent of the regis-tered medical doctors are Tanzanians. In addition, there are 102 licensedassistant medical officers, 83 of whom are employed by the Government. Thefollowing two tables show the distribution of medical and paramedical per-sonnel by region and sector, as well as the ratio of personnel to total popu-lation.

Page 1

Table 7: DISTRIBUTION OF HEALTH PERSONNEL, DECEMBER 1969

PercentN u m b e r in Percent Tanzanian

Dar es Rest of Country as Dar es In Total In Dar esCategories Salaam Country a Whole Salaam Country Salaam

Professional:Dentist 13 6 19 68.4 52.6 90.0Health Inspector 29 102 131 22.1 99.2 21.5Laboratory Technician 33 19 52 63.5 88.5 65.2Medical Doctor 125 320 445 28.1 20.0 33.8Mldwife NA NA 306 NA NA NANurse NA NA 919 NA NA NAPharmacist 35 16 51 68.6 30.8 93.8Physiotherapist 3 8 11 27.3 9.1 -Veterinarian 10 69 79 12.7 48.1 15.8Xray Technician 6 27 33 18.2 54.5 16.7

Assistant:Assistant MedicalOfficer 11 91 102 10.8 100.0 10.7

Auxiliary Midwife NA NA 614 0.2 NA NAAuxiliary Nurse 134 1241 1375 9.7 NA NADental Assistant 1 16 17 5.9 100.0 -Dispenser 15 87 102 14.7 100.0 14.7Hezalth Auxiliary 3 183 186 1.6 100.0 16.1Laboratory Auxiliary 12 56 68 17.6 100.0 17.6Medical Assistant 16 233 249 6.4 100.0 6.4Vet,erinary Assistant 34 628 662 5.1 98.6 47.5Rural Medical Aid - 481 481 - 100.0 -

Page 1 2

Table 8: RATIO OF POPULATION TO HEALTH PERSONNEL, DECEMBER 1969

Ratio of Population to PersonnelRest of the Country as

Categories Dar es Salaam Country a Whole

Dentist 21,000 2,146,667 692,260Health Inspector 9,414 126,274 100,404

Laboratory Technician 8,272 677,894 252,942Medical Doctor /a 2,673 29,222 29,973

Midwife NA NA 42,894Nurse NA NA 14,312

Pharmacist 7,800 805,000 252,942Physiotherapist 91,000 1,610,000 1,195,727Xray Technician 45,500 477,037 398,576Assistant Medical Officer 24,818 140,000 127,699Auxiliary Midwife NA NA 21,422Auxiliary Nurse 2,037 10,379 7,141Dental Assistant 273,000 105,000 733,706

Dispenser 18,200 148,046 128,951

Health Auxiliary 91,000 70,383 70,715Laboratory Auxiliary 22,750 230,000 193,426Medical Assistant 17,063 55,279 52,823Rural Medical Aid - 27,034 27,729

/a Government only; medical school excluded.

Health Budget

31. For 1970/71, the estimated capital expenditure in the health budget

was Sh 24.1 million. As indicated in Table 11, 43 percent of these expend-itures are allocated for hospital services, 22 percent for the public healthprogram, and 20 percent for training schemes. The percentage of the totalbudget spent on health is low (Table 9); from 1965 to 1969 it was between

6.4 percent and 7.1 percent, and during the years 1966-68 it was underthe 1965 level. hIL qsite of the high increase of population, the per capitaexpenditure is growing slightly faster than the proportion of total governmentexpenditures allocated to health.

Page 13

Table 9: RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, 1965/66-1970/71(in Sh millions)

Budget Health Budget Per CapitaSh Percent Sh Percent Percent Allocated Health

Year Million Increase Million Increase To Health Expenditure

1965/66 887.7 - 62.8 - 7.1 5.41966/67 979.7 10 62.7 - 6.4 5.21967/68 1,065.0 20 71.1 13 6.7 5.81968/69 1,186.0 34 78.2 24 6.6 6.21969/70 1,435.0 62 107.3 71 7.5 8.3

Table 10: ESTIMATES OF RECURRENT EXPENDITURES BY ITEM, 1970/71(in Sh millions)

Items Estimates Percent

Salaries 55.6 47.0Grants to Voluntary Agencies 9.3 7.9Ho;pital Services & Supplies 25.2 21.3Rural Health Centers 7.4 6.3Training 2.3 1.9Other 18.5 15.6

TOTAL 118.3 100.0

Table 11: CAPITAL EXPENDITURES ON HEALTH, 1964/65-1970/71(in Sh millions)

Year Estimated Actual Percent

1964/65 1.0 0.7 70.01965/66 1.7 0.3 17.61966/67 0.3 0.2 66.71967/68 4.4 3.9 88.61968/69 19.2 19.3 100.51969/70 - 17.1 -1970/71 24.1

Page 14

Table 12: ALLOCATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH, 1970/71

(in ShItem thousands) Percentage

Hospital Services 10,210 43Public Health Program 5,333 22Training Schemes 4,772 20Auxiliary and Special Services 1,720 7Welfare and Probation 2,058 8

TOTAL 24,093 100

Medical Services

32. Between 1965 and 1969 there was a substantial increase in the vol-ume of admissions to hospitals and in the number of outpatient consultationsin all institutions rendering health services. In 1964/65 there was a totalof 390,544 admissions and by 1968/69 the number was 486,836, a 25 percent in-crease in services. During the same period there was a corresponding increaseof 26 percent in the number of hospital beds, from 19,319 to 24,383. Thevolume of outpatient consultations grew by 41 percent between 1965 and1968. These increases represent a considerable extension in the coverageof medical services. The following tables provide information on the activitiesof hospitals and other institutions during the period 1965-69.

Page 15

Table 1 l: TOTAL NUMBER OF HOSPITAL ADMISSICNS AND DEATHS,1964/65 - 1968/69

Government Services Voluntary Agency ServicesGeneral

Hospitals Dispensaries Hospitals Disensaries Total

1 964-65

No. of Admissions 179,631 11,058 112,639 87,216 390,544No. of Deaths 6,o36 207Percent A 3.4 1.9

1965-66

No. of Admissions 198,669 11,982 140,797 96,041 44.7,489No. of Deaths 6,371 246Percent /a 3.2 2.1

1966-67

No. of Admissions 201,080 12,552 122.,480 101,489 437,601No. of Deaths 6,946 298Percent a 3.5 2.4

1967-68

No. of Admissions 223,395 14,388 132,851 93,374 464,008No. of Deaths 8,202 267Percent /a 3.7 1.9

1968-69

No. of Ailmissions 239,477 12,081 152,948 82,330 486,836No. of Deaths 8,554 335Percent /a 3.6 2.8

/a Percent. of deaths to ediissions.

Page 16

Table 1a: INPATIENT HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS,AVERAGE ANNUAL ADMISSIONS PER UNIT AND PER BED,

1964/65 - 1968/69

PercentIncrease/Decrease

1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1965-69

Hospitals

1. Number of Units:

Government 51 52 51 52 52 +2

Voluntary Agencies 54 55 53 58 59 +9

2. Annual Admissions:Government 179,631 198,669 201,080 223,395 239,477 +33Voluntary Agencies 112,639 140,797 122,480 132,851 152,948 +36

J. Average Annual Admis-sions per Unit:

Government 3,522 3,820 3,943 4,296 4,605 +31Voluntary Agencies 2,086 2,560 2,311 2,291 2,592 +24

4. Number of Beds:Government .5,904 6,097 6,125 6,_83 6,888 +17Voluntary Agencies 5,964 6,319 6,476 7,285 7,677 +29

5. Average Annual Admis-sions per Bed:Government 30 31 33 35 35 +17Voluntary Agencies 19 22 19 18 20 + 5

Dispensaries

1 . Number of Units:

Government 14 15 16 20 21 +50

Voluntary Agencies 228 245 241 264 264 +16

2. Annual Admissions:Government i1,050 11,982 12,552 14,388 1z,081 + 9Voluntary Agencies 87,216 96,041 101 ,489 93,374 82,330 - 6

3. Average Annual Admis-sions per Unit:Government 790 799 784 719 575 -27Voluntary Agencies 383 392 421 354 312 -19

4. Number of Beds:Government 311 332 390 334 334 + 7Voluntary Agencies 4,246 4,720 4,611 4,701 4,563 + 7

5. Average Annual Admis-sions per Bed:

Government j6 36 32 43 36 -

Voluntary Agencies 21 20 22 20 18 _14

Table 1 5: OUTPATIENTS IN HEhLTH ESTABLISHMENTS, NIW CASES, AND TOTAL ATTENDANCES,1965/65 - 1968/69

(i n thousands)

1964/65 1966/67 1968/69Total Total / Total

Institutions New Cases Attendances Ratio2- New Cases Attendances Ratio-L New Cases Attendances Ratio!-

Goverment Services

General Hospitals 2,335.0 6,403.6 2.7 2,792.3 6,926.2 2.5 3,884.8 9,919.3 2.5Dispensaries 1,188.5 2,656.3 2.2 1,167.9 29695.7 2.3 1,068.8 _2,734.3 2.6

Subtotal 3,523.5 9,059.9 2.5 3,960.2 9,621.9 2.4 4,953.6 12,653.6 2.6

Local AuthoritiesServices

Rural Health Centers 11,1140.0 21,577.7 1.9 15,250.9 26,948.3 1.8 15,128.6L 2 7 , 505. 9Lb 1.8and Dispensaries

Voluntary AgenciesServices

Hospitals 680.5 2,171.9 3.2 694.1 2,382.0 3.4 719.0 2,356.0 3.3Dispensaries 1,149.5 3,497.9 3.0 1,391.4 3,965.5 2.9 1,191.5 3,600.4 3.0

Subtotal 1,830.0 5,669.8 3.1 2,085.5 6,347.5 3.1 1,910.5 5,956.4 3.1

TOTAL 16,493.5 36,307.14 2.2 21,296.6 42,917.7 2.0 21,992.7L 46,115. 91 2.1

/a Average number of attendances per new case.

/b Rural health centers excluded. CD

Page l8

Table 16: DAILY ATTENDANCES TO OUTPATIENT CLINICS1964/65-1968/69

PercentIncrease

1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 196 1964-69 La

Hospitals

Government 21,345 21,347 23,087 26,467 33,064 55Voluntary Agencies 7,240 8,487 7,940 9,159 7,853 8

Dispensaries

Government 8,854 9,127 8,986 8,658 9,114 3Voluntary Agencies 11,660 13,006 13,218 13,597 12,001 3Local Authorities 71,926 72,231 89,828 112,599 NA 57 /b

Total Outpatientsper Day 121,025 124,198 143,059 170,480 NA 41 /b

/a During period 1964-69 total population increased by 15 percent.

/b Based on 1967/68 figures.

Prenatal and Child Health Clinics

33. About one-third of all pregnant women in Tanzania give birth undermedical or paramedical supervision. On the average, during 1965-67 therewere more than 312,000 first attendances to prenatal clinics and more than1,217,000 annual attendances. Thus the annual average of 141,000 confine-ments supervised by medical personnel during the same period indicates thatonly 45% of women attending prenatal clinics go to the medical units for de-livery. Maternal mortality among hospital deliveries is high; the annualrate for the period mentioned was 4.9 per 1,000 confinements. (In developedcountries the rate , of the order of 0.3 to 0.5 per 1,000 live births inthe total population.)

34. Child health clinics took care of over 224,000 first attendancesof children to clinics and a total of 1,080,000 average annual attendancesduring 1965-1967. Only 10 to 15% of children five years of age were receiv-ing medical care during that period.

Page 1 9

Table 17: PRENATAL AND CHILD HEALTH CLINIC STATISTICS,1967-69 /a

No. of First Visits Total No. of Visits

Prenatal Clinics 312,070 1,217,291

Child Health Clinics 224,333 1,079,729

Total With Complications Without Complications

Medically-supervisedrDeliveries 141,197 17,933 (13%) 123,264 (87%)

/a Average annual figures for the period.

Education and Training

35. Government and voluntary agencies are providing medical and para-

medical training in the country. The Faculties of Medicine at Dar es Salaam

and Kampala in Uganda train the majority of Tanzanian medical students. The

lorng-term general objective is to achieve a self-sufficiency in manpower by

1980. Progress has been made towards this objective in the period 1964/69,

but: greater efforts are planned for 1969/76 to train physicians, medical

auxiliaries, nurses, and auxiliary staff.

36. The emphasis in the plan for the period 1969-76 has been shifted

to postgraduate and specialist training. It is hoped that by 1980 each re-

gional hospital will have at least one specialist in each discipline such

as medicine, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, pediatrics, and public

health. High priority will also be given to the continuation of medical

stuidies -- especially for doctors working in rural health services.

Table 18: NEDICAL STUDENTS AT DAR ES SALAAM,1967-71

First 2nd 3rd 4th 5thYear Year Year Year Year Total Graduates

1967/68 - - - - - - 61968/69 23 29 13 10 9 84 9

1969/70 35 19 28 13 10 105 9

1970/71 33 30 18 27 16 124 -

Estimated Required Number of Medical Students

1971 - 166 1974 - 3531972 - 226 1975 - 4171973 - 294 1976 - 445

Page 20

37. Training schemes for auxiliary medical staff will be significantlyimportant in supplying the manpower needed for the rural health services.The Ministry of Health runs a four-year course for Form IV school leavers atMuhibili Hospital. Those who successfully complete this course are regis-tered as type "A" nurses. Training of type "B" nurses is conducted in manyvoluntary agency hospitals. Intended for primary school leavers, the programis comprised of three years of general nursing and one year of midwiferytraining.

38. Rural medical aids are also in short supply and in great demand.The training of these rural aids has been conducted at Mwanza/Bukoba jointly,and at Mnero Roman Catholic Hospital in Nachingwea District, and Kibaha. Itis hoped in the second five-year development period that new courses will beconducted. The course for laboratory technicians has been going on for sometime at the Central Pathology Laboratory. Students are selected from FormIV school leavers who have the necessary passes in science subjects. Thetraining of health inspectors requires completion of a three-year coursefor Form IV school leavers who have necessary passes in specific subjectsin the school certificate examination. Normally, about 20 students enrolleach year. The course requirement for health auxiliaries is 18 monthsin duration for primary school leaver8; the first six months are conductedat Ifakara, followed by six months of practical training in the field andsix months of training in Tanga. Normally, about 36 to 40 students enrolleach year. Also, from time to time the Ministry of Health offers a 6-month course for radiographic auxiliaries and also a 12-month dispensingauxiliary course for serving nursing assistants.

39. The first Five-Year Plan was mainly geared towards the developmentof the physical medical facilities in urban areas, although little wasachieved even in hospitals during the period concerned. Health programsstarted slowly and picked up only in the fourth year of the plan.

40. There was a small expansion from a total of 7,290 beds in govern-ment hospitals and dispensaries at the end of 1953 to 8,187 beds in theseinstitutions at the end of 1968, an increase of 12 percent. In contrast,good progress was made in the field of medical education with the establish-ment of national me:2cal schools in Dar es Salaam.

41. The actual expenditure of the first Health Plan during 1964-69 isabout 55.1 percent of planned expenditures. The actual development expendi-ture (in Sh thousands) which compared to health plan targets for 1964-1968is as follows:

EstimatedActual as Actual asPercent Percent

Actual Planned of Planned Total Planned of PlannedExpenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure Expenditure

1964-68 1964-68 1964-68 1964-69 1964-69

13,722 23,280 58.94 31,800 55.1

Page 2].The Second Five-Year Health Plan (1969-74)

42. The second Five-Year Health Plan (1969-74) emphasizes above all thedevelopment of preventive and rural health services. To implement this stra-tegy, the public health program is based on the following principal measures:

a. government assumption of full responsibility for runningthe existing rural health centers and for establishing atotal of 80 health centers;

b. establishment of a Public Health Institute to strengthenthe superstructure and coordinate all preventive services;(The institute will comprise the existing general healtheducation and nutrition units, together with new publichealth services such as communicable diseases controlunit, environmental sanitation unit, and epidemiologicalunit.)

c. preventive measures and campaigns to be taken against com-municable diseases such as smallpox, tuberculosis, polio-myelitis, tetanus, whooping cough, measles;

d. medlcal coverage by a chain of dispensaries, rural healthcenters, district hospitals, and extension to villages, inencouraging and supporting the establishment of villagehealth services, especially in Ujamaa villages;

e. achievement of a coordinated health service, utilizing thefacilities made available by the Central Government, thelocal authorities, and the voluntary agencies, having inmind the complete integration of all services;

f. improvement of existing hospital facilities and construc-tion of two new district hospitals and some other facil-ities for psychiatric, dental, and maternal and childhealth services;

g. improvement of auxiliary services; and

h. development and improvement of training to achieve a self-sufficiency in manpower by 1980.

Page 22

(ii) POPULATION

DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION

1. The population of Tanzania was enumerated in three censuses whichtook place in 1948, 1957, and 1967. Census figures are shown in Table 1together with the proportional increase and the average annual growth ratesfor the two intercensal periods.

Table 1: POPULATION IN CENSUSES, TOTAL INCREASE AND AVERAGEANNUAL GROWTH RATE, 1948, 1957, and 1967

Absolute Average AnnualCensus Increase Growth Rate

Year Population % %

1948 7,744,411 ... ...

1957 9,087,577 17.3 1.8

1967 12,313,469 35.5 2. 2

/a Rate estimated on basis of sample study of 1957 census (see para 2)Source: United Nations, Demographic Yearbook, 1969.

2. The 1967 census revealed a population of 12.3 million which com-pared to the 9.1 million enumerated in 1957 and would result in an annualgrowth rate of over 3 percent. However, there was evidence of underenumera-tion in the earlier census and in order to determine its extent, a sample ofcensus returns was drawn for analysis /1. The results showed that the inter-censal annual growth rate was on the order of 2.6 percent. Other demographicindicators derived from this study were a crude birth rate of 46-48 perthousand, a crude death rate of 21, an infant mortality of 160-170 per 1,000live births, a life expectancy at birth of 40-45 years and a total fertilityof 6.5 births /2. These indicators lead to an estimate of a gross repro-duction rate of 3.2 13.

3. On the basis of the same study an annual growth rate of 2.7 percentwas projected for the period 1967-75 as contrasted to 2.1 percent for 1948-57and 2.6 percent for 1957-67. This would lead to a population of 15.0 million

/1 Provisional Estimates of Fertility, Mortality, and Population Growth forTanzania, Central Statistical Bureau, 1968.

/2 Average number of children born to women reaching age 50 (completedfamily size)..

/3 Average number of daughters per woman at end of reproductive period.

Page 23

for 1975. The forecast for the year 1980 is stated at 17.6 million personson t:he basis of a 3.0 percent annual growth rate for the period 1975-1980.Of this total population, 17.1 million will be on the mainland and 476,000in Zanzibar. If fertility remains unchecked, and the growth of social andmedical services continues to lead to a further lowering of mortality rates,then the population growth rate after 1980 could exceed 3 percent a year.

4. The total land area of Tanzania is 341,150 square miles. Accordingto ithe 1948 census the population density was 22 per square mile; it rose to26 per square mile in 1957 and to 35 per square mile in 1967. In absoluteterms, the country cannot be considered overpopulated. According to the1967 census, only 7 out of the 17 regions in Tanzania had a population densityexceeding the national average of 35 per square mile.

5. As in the rest of East Africa, population in urban areas constitutesonly a small proportion of the total; in the intercensal period 1948-1957urban population increased at a growth rate of 6 percent per annum and at 6.3percent during the decade 1957-1967. Dar es Salaam itself has grown at 7.8percent; in the last two to three years the annual increase has acceleratedto 11 percent. Even though the urban population is growing at over twicethe rate of the national population, it accounts for a relatively small partof the population increase - about 15 percent. On mainland Tanzania, thenumber of towns and former townships increased from 27 in 1948 to 33 in 1957,and 35 in 1967; with the population increasing from 197,266 in 1948 to 364,072in 1957, and to 700,144 in 1967. By city, the range of growth has been froma low of 3 percent per annum (Tabora and Urwaba) to a high of 13 percent perannum (Arusha). On Zanzibar Island, however, the town has increased from45,284 in 1948 to 57,923 in 1958 and to 68,490 in 1967 (28 and 19 percentrespectively).

6. Tanzania, like Uganda and Kenya, has a high proportion of childrenunder 15 years of age -- a consequence of sustained high fertility. In 1967,44 percent were in that age group and the projections for 1980 /1, /2 based onassumptions of high fertility and falling mortality rates, give indicationsof an increase of 47 percent in that group. The number of children in school(5 - 14 years of age) is predicted to increase by 50 percent. As a consequenceof age redistribution the country will have an even higher dependency ratio(from 0.89 in 1967 it is estimated to climb to 0.97 by 1980). In addition tothis, the high proportion of population remaining on the land, and the highcost of developing marginal land may place severe strains on scarce resourcesand development efforts.

/1 United Republic of Tanzania: 1967 Population Census, Vol. I & II, Bureauof Statistics, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development Planning1969, 1970.

/2 Morgan, W.T.W. East Africa: Its People and Resources, Oxford UniversityPress, 1969.

Page 24

Table 2: AGE DISTRIBUTION ACCORDING TO 1967 CENSUSAND ESTIMATES FOR 1980, TANZANIA

vSe 1967 1980

0-4 17.9) 19.3)

) )5-9 14.3)44.4% 15.1) 47.0%

) )10-14 12.2) 12.6)

15-19 10.4 10.6

20-34 22.5 22.0

35-49 13.2 12.1

50-64 6.8 6.0

65 and over 2.6 2.3

7. Government officials are aware of the probable derivations of rapidpopulation growth, in spite of the fact that at present pressure is not evi-dent. In the preamble to the second Five-Year Plan (pp.6-12) the Presidentof Tanzania refers to the increased rate of population growth, the need fornew information from the census, and the impact of population on primaryeducation and on the quality of life. Increased emphasis on preventiveand rural health services through rural health center development isplanned, including maternal and child health services.

FAMILY PLANNING

8. The Family Planning Association of Dar es Salaam was founded in1959 and registered under the "Societies Ordinance". Some seven years later(1966) it became the Family Planning Association of Tanzania. The associa-tion is affiliated with the International Planned Parenthood Federation,from whom it derives 80 percent or more of its revenue (1969: Sh 590,048 =

US$84,300), the remainder being from local contributors. Its personnel areTanzanians, some full-time in Dar es Salaam, but mostly voluntary part-timeworkers. Although the association receives no direct subsidy from theGovernment, it is permitted to utilize government medical premises and per-sonnel, subject to the discretion of the local medical officers.

9. The Family Planning Association is primarily a service organiza-tion working through other bodies wherever possible, e.g., government medicalinstitutions, voluntary hospitals, and local authority facilities. It has

Page 25

established some 64 clinics throughout the country based on existing govern-menit and voluntary hospitals and their staff. Four clinics are in Dar esSalaam (Muhimbili, Karimjee, Aga Khan, University) together with a mobileunit. Demand is said to out-strip the capacity to supply devices, which arefree when rendered from government premises and require a small payment whensupplied from voluntary organizations. Statistics reveal, for the firstseven months of 1970, 1,295 primary clients and 4,866 re-visits for Dar esSalaam clinics. Returns from the rest of the country equal those of Dar esSalaam itself. In 1969, acceptances were 3,477, of whom 1,311 chose the IUD,1,974 chose oral contraception and 372 chose other methods.

10. The association is moving towards public information activity andis taking an increasingly active part in education and training. It plansto act with a pragmatic response as and where demands arise; it also includesin iits program the establishment of a training center (in association withmaternal and child health activities) and an increase in mobile units. Thelatter would operate on an area basis, working from family planning clinic-to-clinic on a regular schedule, offering training and service. Trainingwould cover medical,paramedical, and community development personnel andteachers.

11. The Ministry of Health's attitude is that family planning may bepromoted through voluntary organizations as part of the effort to improvematernal and child health services. It permits the voltntary use of itsperseonnel, its premises and facilities, and has issued a circular to thiseffect. The Ministry is concerned with developing its rural health servicesrapidly with specific emphasis on maternal and child health. The incorpora-tion of family planning training and research within the maternal and childhealth section of the projected Institute of Public Health is a possibility.

12. The university is already active in teaching and research in thearea of population. The Bureau of Resource Assessment and Land Use Planning(BRALUP) of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences is specifically concernedwith the population increase and land utilization, migration, demography, andanalysis of the census. It focuses on land in relation to population. TheFaculty of Medicine introduces students to demography and statistics in thefirst year, theory of family planning in the third year, and clinical prac-tice in the fourth year, including the insertion of IUDs. Nurses, midwives,medical assistants, and health inspectors get a brief exposure to familyplanning during training.

13. The university offers a favorable environment for promoting bothpopulation-related research and education. Activity in the Faculty of Artsand Social Sciences, and the Faculty of Medicine is well-oriented to popula-tion dynamics and family planning.

Page 26

14. Although Tanzania is a large country with plenty of land potential-ly productive at a relatively low cost, the long-run consequences of a rapid-

ly growing population on the economy are predictable on the basis of presentdemographic conditions and have been given recognition by government offi-cials at seminars and conferences. Population pressure against availableresources is not evident at present; however, given the rapid rhythm ofgrowth it may develop before the end of the century as a result of antici-pated declines in mortality and sustained high fertility. Changes in agestructure will tend to accentuate the already high dependency ratio. Theofficial recognition of the problem and the present government's approachare promising indications that adequate solutions will be sought in duecourse.

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