Results from the CaliforniaEnergy Efficiency Potential Study –

Existing Residential and Commercial

Jean Shelton

July 27, 2006

San Francisco, California

2

Presentation Overview

• Overview study goals• Overview of the types of potential• California energy savings potential

– Review of total savings potential from all sectors and utilities.

• Existing residential and commercial analysis– Overview of measures covered– Results– Utility specific results

• Conclusions

3

Study Goals

• Collect Input data– Measures saturations and technology density: RASS and CEUS– Cost and impacts from DEER– Load data from CEUS and Site Pro

• Estimate gas and electric energy efficiency potential for existing residential and commercial buildings– Technical– Economic– Market or achievable

• Estimate potential statewide, utility, climate zone, segment and measure specific.

• Study report incorporates the results from two additional studies: Existing industrial (KEMA) and new construction (Itron, RLW, AEC)

4

Types of Potential

• Technical potential: Highest efficiency feasible and applicable option. – Instantaneous potential: retrofit and conversions.– Phased-in potential: replace-on-burn out.

• Economic potential: Highest efficiency feasible and applicable option that is cost effective.– Instantaneous and phased-in potential.

• Market potential: Savings impacts that can be expected to occur with a given level of utility program activity.– Screens for feasibility, applicability, awareness, and willingness.– Calibrate to 2004 actual program accomplishments– Scenarios: 2004 incentives, full incentives, average incentives

California Statewide Potential ResultsAll Sectors

6

Statewide Gross Electric Energy Potential: All Sectors

63,814

53,150

23,974

20,065

16,226

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Technical Economic Full Average Current

GW

H

7

Statewide Gross Electric Demand Potential: All Sectors

15,483

11,151

4,887

3,772

2,594

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Technical Economic Full Average Current

MW

8

Statewide Gross Gas Potential: All Sectors

2,336

1,453

622

440

247

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Technical Economic Full Average Current

Mill

ions

of T

herm

s

.

9

Distribution of Current Market Energy Potential

Existing Residential53%

Existing Commercial18%

Existing Industrial14%

Ind. New Construction1%

Res. New Construction1%

Emerging Tech7%

Com. New Construction6%

10

Distribution of Current Market Demand Potential

Existing Commercial18%

Existing Industrial11%

Res. New Construction5%

Com. New Construction8%

Ind. New Construction2%

Emerging Tech11%

Existing Residential45%

11

Distribution of Gas Potential

Existing Residential36%

Existing Commercial11%

Existing Industrial27%

Res. New Construction7%

Com. New Construction4%

Emerging Tech15%

California Statewide Potential Existing Residential

13

• Fifty-one electric and 14 gas high efficiency measures– HVAC

• Central A/C and HP, duct and insulation measures, room A/C, evaporative coolers, and high-efficiency furnaces

– Lighting• CFLs, hard-wired fixtures, torchieres, etc.

– Water Heaters • DHW, dishwashers, clothes washers, pipe wrap, boiler controllers, etc.

– Pool Pumps– Refrigerators & Recycling

• Includes measures in IOU 2004 programs and other measures the IOUs are interested in potentially including.

Measures Included in the Existing Residential Analysis

14

Existing Residential Gross Electric Potential vs. Total Usage

21,873

5,365

2,729 2,233 1,8271,161

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

EnergyDemand

TechnicalPotential

EconomicPotential

FullIncremental

Cost

Average Current

MW

84,731

25,807

19,226

11,758 10,309 8,445

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Energy Usage TechnicalPotential

EconomicPotential

FullIncremental

Cost

Average Current

GW

h

15

Existing Residential Gross Market Energy Potential 2004-2016

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GW

h

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

16

Existing Residential Gross Market Demand Potential 2004-2016

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MW

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

17

Existing Residential Gross Energy Market Potential by End Use

4,990

12,330

7,880

606

1,215

12,056

5,654

302

1,821

5,774

4,019

143

1,325

5,358

3,512

114512

5,008

2,855

71

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

18

Existing Residential Gross Demand Market Potential by End Use

3,096

1,1691,039

62

805

1,143

757

24

1,156

548 512

17

856

509 449

13

312

476366

8

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

MW

Technical Economic Full Averrage Current

19

Discussion of Existing Residential Electric End Use Potential

• Nearly all lighting measures are cost-effective• All miscellaneous measures other than high-

efficiency refrigerators and dryers are cost-effective

• All water heater measures other than high efficiency clothes washers, dishwashers, and instantaneous water heaters are cost-effective

• Few HVAC measures are cost-effective – HVAC diagnostics, 13 SEER HP, wall insulation, and

windows– Changes in federal standards

20

Existing Residential Energy Usage and Economic and Technical Potential by Utility

40,428

35,837

8,466

11,96911,040

2,798

8,9968,100

2,130

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

PG&E SCE SDG&E

GW

h

Energy Usage Technical Potential Economic Potential

21

PG&E Gross Existing Residential Energy Potential

2,128

5,825

3,663

352465

5,728

2,629

174

580

2,314

1,573

88

403

2,140

1,247

72180

1,991

877

53

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

22

PG&E Gross Existing Residential Demand Potential

1,516

552

475

36

408

543

346

14

451

220 197

11

321

203156

9

141189

110

6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

MW

Technical Economic Full Average Current

23

SCE Gross Existing Residential Electric Potential

2,419

5,072

3,350

199

677

4,902

2,422

99

1,071

2,642

1,990

37

798

2,447

1,867

25

285

2,286

1,654

60

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

24

SCE Gross Existing Residential Demand Potential

1,269

481447

20

345

465

328

8

559

251 256

4

427

232 240

3

131

217 213

00

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

MW

Technical Economic Full Average Current

25

SDG&E Gross Existing Residential Energy Potential

443

867

5572

602

2946

730

324

12

125

772

399

16

170

819

456

18

1,433 1,426

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

GW

h

Technical Economic Current Average Full Incremental Cost

26

SDG&E Gross Existing Residential Demand Potential

312

136

117

5

52

135

82

2

40

69

42

1

108

73

52

2

145

78

59

2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

HVAC Lights Msc WHeat

MW

Technical Economic Current Average Full Incremental Cost

27

Discussion of Existing Residential Electric Scenarios

• Lighting measures have a short payback period – Little impact from increasing rebates.

• HVAC measures have a longer payback period – More sensitive to increasing rebates– Increasing rebates quickly leads to the adoption of non-

economic measures.

• Miscellaneous measures – Refrigerator and freezer recycling have a large gross energy

potential but a low net to gross ratio.

28

Existing Residential Costs and Benefits

Item Current Average Full

Gross Program Costs

$101,593,868 $125,481,099 $149,350,098

Net Measure Costs

$1,871,876,432 $3,128,023,800 $4,473,299,926

Gross Incentives

$1,471,506,688 $2,704,205,291 $5,239,323,202

Net Avoided Cost Benefit

$3,726,813,980 $4,891,134,045 $5,760,643,295

Program TRC 1.89 1.5 1.25

29

Existing Residential Gross Gas Potential vs. Total Usage

5,574

972

303 231 178 880

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Gas Forecast Technical Economic Full IncrementalCost

Average Current

Mill

ion

s o

f T

herm

s

.

30

Existing Residential Gross Market Gas Potential 2004-2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ions

of

Ther

ms

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

31

Existing Residential Gas Market Scenario by End Use

546

420

6

77

225

0

88

138

5

70

106

2

31

56

00

100

200

300

400

500

600

HVAC Water Heating Dryers

Mill

ion

s o

f T

her

ms

Technical Economic Full Average Current

32

Discussion of Residential Gas End Use Potential

• Very few gas measures are cost-effective• Wall insulation is cost-effective in some housing

types and climate zones.• Low cost water heating measures are cost-

effective– Faucet aerators, showerheads, boiler controllers, and

water heater wrap

• Increasing HVAC incentive levels will encourage the adoption of measures that are not economical.

33

Existing Residential Gas Usage and Gross Technical and Economic Potential by Utility

2,404

2,767

403376

521

76153 116

33

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

PG&E SCG SDG&E

Mill

ion

s o

f T

herm

s .

Gas Forecast Technical Economic

34

PG&E Existing Residential Gross Gas Potential by End Use

217

1

157

75

0

78

45

1

55

36

1

47

19

0

28

0

50

100

150

200

250

HVAC Dryers WHeat

Mill

ion

Th

erm

s

Technical Economic Full Average Current

35

SCG Existing Residential Gross Gas Potential by End Use

303.3

4.3

213.0

0.0 0.0

116.4

11.40.0

19.329.8

0.8

45.537.6

3.7

66.2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

HVAC Dryers Wheat

Mill

ion

Ther

ms

.

Technical Economic Current Average Full

36

SDG&E Existing Residential Gross Gas Potential by End Use

25.4

0.8

49.4

2.60.0

30.6

1.40.0

8.4

4.5

0.3

13.9

5.5

0.6

16.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

HVAC Dryers Wheat

Mill

ion

Th

erm

s .

Technical Economic Current Average Full Incremental Cost

37

Existing Residential Cost and Benefits Gas

Item Current Average Full

Gross Program Costs $27,262,306 $55,122,158 $69,446,476

Net Measure Costs $1,564,800,255 $4,105,185,958 $4,990,005,002

Gross Incentives $785,192,150 $3,289,974,300 $6,033,430,652

Net Avoided Cost Benefit

$264,879,468 $514,353,572 $647,561,596

Program TRC 0.17 0.12 0.13

Potential in Existing Commercial Buildings

39

• 82 commercial measures– HVAC

• Chillers, packaged A/C, tune-ups, VSDs, window film, thermostat controls, and high efficiency boilers

– Lighting• CFLs, HIDs, occupancy sensors, T8/T5s, exit signs, etc.

– Refrigeration • Glass doors, night covers, compressors, etc.

– Miscellaneous• Vending machine controls, cooking, copy machine, gas water heater

• Includes measures in the IOU 2004 programs and measures that the IOUs are interested in potentially including

Measures Included in the Commercial Analysis

40

Existing Commercial Usage with Economic and Technical Energy Potential

27,287

3,0961,996

982 787 4610

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Total Use Technical Economic FullIncremental

Average Current

MW

93,771

13,93211,290

4,720 4,104 3,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Total Use Technical Economic FullIncremental

Average CurrentG

Wh

41

Existing Commercial Gross Market Potential by Scenario 2004-2016

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GW

h

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

42

Existing Commercial Gross Demand Potential by Scenario 2004-2016

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

MW

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

43

Existing Commercial Gross Energy End-Use Potential

6,437

3,993

394

5,738

2,115

373570

51

550

45

655 528

37

3,1083,064

1,676

2,424

1,315

2,194

1,780

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Lighting HVAC Refrigeration Miscellaneous

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Incremental Average Current

44

Existing Commercial Gross Demand End-Use Potential

973

1,623

56

866

641

53807

776

108 745

443437

524

371367336

273

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Lighting HVAC Refrigeration Miscellaneous

MW

Technical Economic Full Incremental Average Current

45

Discussion of Commercial Electric End Use Potential

• Nearly all lighting, miscellaneous, and refrigeration measures are cost-effective in all climate zones and building segments.

• Many HVAC measures are cost-effective in selected climate zones and building segments.– Energy savings differ by building segment and climate

zone.– Only cool roofs are never cost-effective

46

Existing Commercial Electricity Usage and Gross Technical and Economic Potential by Utility

41,139 42,209

10,423

5,5536,938

1,442

4,583 5,557

1,151

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

PG&E SCE SDG&E

GW

h

Total Use Technical Economic

47

Existing Commercial Gross Demand Usage and Economic and Technical Potential by Utility

8,082

8,782

2,126

1,2751,535

286798 1,002

1960

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

PG&E SCE SDG&E

MW

Total Use Technical Economic

48

PG&E Existing Commercial Gross Energy Potential by End Use

2,632

1,411

165 152

850

694

246

28

743

552

236

26

574

287225

22

1,345

2,376

1,330

724

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

49

PG&E Existing Commercial Gross Demand Potential by End Use

390

665

23 21

128

254

35

4

112

174

344

86

4932

3

197

232

195

351

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

MW

Technical Economic Full Average Current

50

SCE Existing Commercial Gross Energy Potential by End Use

3,122

2,146

186

2,754

1,164

180

1,341

765

256

20

1,233

577

247

18

1,022

244 239

14

1,484 1,459

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

51

SCE Existing Commercial Gross Demand Potential by End Use

479

820

26

422

349

26

208 221

353

192156

342

159

37 332

209 205

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

MW

Technical Economic Full Average Current

52

SDG&E Existing Commercial Gross Energy Potential by End Use

682

437

279

43

608

226

275

42

233218

69

2

218185

66

2

184

124

64

10

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

GW

h

Technical Economic Full Average Current

53

SDG&E Existing Commercial Gross Demand Potential by End Use

104

138

38

6

93

60

37

6

35

49

9

0

3338

9

0

2822

9

00

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Lights HVAC REFG Miscellaneous

MW

Technical Economic Full Average Current

54

Commercial Costs and Benefits - Electric

Item Current Average Full

Gross Program Costs $29,069,379 $44,335,358 $54,985,758

Net Measure Costs $773,740,351 $1,656,789,933 $2,150,178,594

Gross Incentives $231,615,979 $1,020,263,075 $2,253,065,121

Net Avoided Cost Benefit

$2,031,445,156 $2,780,609,268 $3,171,958,939

Program TRC 2.53 1.63 1.44

55

Existing Commercial Usage and Gross Gas Potential by Scenario

2,070

10938 56 44 27

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Total Usage Technical Economic Full Incremental Average Current

Mil

lio

ns

of

Th

erm

s

56

Existing Commercial Gross Gas Market Potential 2004-2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

s o

f T

her

ms

Full - 2004 Measures Average - 2004 Measures Current

57

Existing Commercial Gross Gas End-Use Potential

51.4

57.6

26.6

11.8

28.2 27.6

23.8

19.7

16.0

10.7

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

HVAC Miscellaneous

Mil

lio

n T

her

ms

Technical Economic Full Average Current

58

Discussion of Commercial Gas End Use Potential

• Gas water heating measures are cost-effective– Water heaters and circulating pump time clocks.

• No gas cooking measures are cost-effective.• Two gas HVAC measures are cost-effective and

two gas HVAC measures are not cost-effective.– Boiler pipe insulation and thermostats are cost-

effective.– High efficiency boilers and boiler tune-ups are not

cost-effective.

59

Existing Commercial Usage and Gross Potential by Utility

778

1,145

147

3267

98 28 2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

PG&E SCG SDG&E

Mill

ions

of T

herm

s

Total Use Technical Economic

60

PG&E Existing Commercial Gross Gas Potential by End Use

15

17

8

4

6

23

1

44

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

HVAC Miscellaneous

Mill

ion

Th

erm

s

Technical Economic Full Average Current

61

SCG Existing Commercial Gross Gas Potential by End Use

3335

21

7

1821

16 16

13

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

HVAC Miscellaneous

Mill

ions

of

Th

erm

s

Technical Economic Full Average Current

62

SDG&E Existing Commercial Gross Gas Potential by End Use

3.3

6.0

1.1 1.2

1.8

2.5

1.5 1.5

0.0

0.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

HVAC Miscellaneous

Mill

ion

s o

f T

her

ms

Technical Economic Full Average Current

63

Existing Commercial Gas Costs and Benefits

Item Current Average Full

Gross Program Costs $21,876,929 $31,667,968 $38,766,114

Net Measure Costs $89,426,180 $196,284,482 $276,641,547

Gross Incentives $19,461,300 $110,101,772 $262,951,827

Net Avoided Cost Benefit $84,223,141 $141,877,389 $178,556,321

Program TRC 0.76 0.62 0.57