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Ricardo RamirezUniversity of Notre Dame
Department of Political Science
Transforming Politics, Transforming America:
Emerging Diverse Voters and Representatives
The Economist – Special Issue – March 2015 How to fire up America
The rise of Latinos is a huge opportunity. The United States must not squander it
View from outside UK
From minor to major -- DemographicsDreaming in English -- LanguageA suitable box to tick -- ClassificationNot our thing -- Political ParticipationCuba libre -- Foreign PolicyIn the shadows -- ImmigrationPick and mix -- ReligionThe dark side -- CrimeCollege or bust -- EducationHearts and minds-- MediaListen to this -- MusicHave faith in the -- Future outlook
melting pot
The Economist Special Issue – March 2015
Changing U.S. Population Requires Attention to ALL “emerging markets”
White Latino Black Asian0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 85
3.5
11
0.6
66
1713
5.1
43
31
15
8.2
196020122060
Turnout Rates of Adult Citizen Population By Race and Election Year
2000 2004 2008 2012
White
61.8 67.2 66.1 64.1
Black 56.8 60.0 64.7 66.2
Latino
45.1 47.2 49.9 48.0
Asian 43.4 44.2 47.6 47.3
Civic and Political Incorporation by Race
WhitesAfrican
Americans LatinosAsian
AmericansCitizen (among adults) 98 94 63 68Registered (among citizen) 74 70 59 55Turnout (among registered) 90 93 84 86Political contributor 13 8 5 13Contact government official 21 11 9 9
Community work 30 27 21 21
“These findings challenge the 'conventional wisdom’ about patterns of participation in America. They are best explained by recognizing that the opportunities for political action among the American citizenry are not fixed, but instead vary with changes in the political stimuli across different periods.”
(Beck and Jennings 1979, 737)
Think about voters as market opportunities. Not fixed Vary with changing technology and global economy
Moment in time
Latinos as a case study
Short break
Asian AmericansWhat is unique?
Breakout sessionDiscussion
What we’ll cover today….
Narratives about Latino Voters:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use
Narratives about Latino Voters:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use
Revolutionary Transformation?
Evolutionary Transformation?
Largest Racial/Ethnic minority since 2001
Concentrated in 10 States [ >78% ]
Percent Latino of State Population2010 Total
Latinos% of Pop.
Total U.S. 50,477,594 16.4%
California 14,013,719 37.6%
Texas 9,460,921 37.6%
Florida 4,223,806 22.5%
New York 3,416,922 17.6%
Illinois 2,027,578 15.8%
Arizona 1,895,149 29.7%
New Jersey
1,555,144 17.7%
Colorado 1,038,687 17.1%
New Mexico
953,403 46.3%
Nevada 716,501 26.5%
More than a third of 12.9 million new U.S. citizens were Latinos (1991-2011)
Number of 18-24 year old Latinos grew from 1.8 million in 1991 to 6.5 million in 2012.By 2010 almost 1 in 4 youth (under 18) is Latino
Latino turnout broke records in 2008 & 20129.6-11.8 million (up from 4.9 million in 1996)Percent of electorate: 9% (2008) 10% (2012)
Latino Citizens, Latino Voters
Increasing media attention
Increasing use of Spanish-language media
More visible role of Latino elite and organizations
Latino turnout & preferences more relevant
Latinos and Politics
The Evolving Latino Electorate
Understanding Latino politics
Unanswered questions
When and How Change Happens
Redefining American Democracy
Outline: Mobilizing Opportunities
How and when are Latinos mobilized?
How has this changed the nature of the Latino electorate?
What unique challenges and opportunities do Latinos face?
The Evolving Latino Electorate
Ethnic/National Origin Model
“Pivotal Voters”
“Demography is destiny”
Understanding Latino Politics
Where are Latinos present and growing?
What state contexts drive Latino influence?
Who can’t vote?
Unanswered Questions
AZ
CA
CO
FL
IL
NV
NJ
NM
NY
TX
Latino Population Presence & Growth
-15
7
0
1
55
% G
row
th (
1990
- 2
010)
Presence (% of the State Population, 2010)0 27 50
Emergent Dynamic
EstablishedModerate
Where are Latinos present and growing?
What state contexts drive Latino influence?
Who can’t vote?
Unanswered Questions
AZ
CA
CO
FLILNV
NJ
NM
NY
TX
Latino Electoral Presence & Growth
0 8
8
1
76
% G
row
th (
1990
- 2
010)
Presence (% of the State Registered Voters, 2010)0 15 32
Emergent Dynamic
Moderate Established
Where are Latinos present and growing?
What state contexts drive Latino influence?
Who can’t vote?
Unanswered Questions
Proactive Mobilization: A range of elite-sponsored activities targeting
political participation infrastructure
Reactive Mobilization: Mobilization of Latinos in response to real or
perceived political threat.
PM and RM Mobilizing OpportunitiesTactical Mobilization:
short-term mobilization focused on specific election outcome (e.g. partisan or candidate campaigns)
When and How Change Happens
In 1980 there were only 67 Spanish-language radio stations in the United States
Proactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20080
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
533
1041
Spanish-language Radio Stations, 1998-2008
Year
Nu
mb
er
of
Sta
tio
ns
Source: Arbitron 2005-2009
Radio is a ‘constant companion’
Time spent listening (TSL)
Linguistic isolation as a resource
Information-diffusion role
Community-support relationship with audience
Proactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio
Larger protests in cities with strong SL radio
SL DJs: information diffusion AND innovation
Synergy of PM and RM
Imminent threat subsided and “Corporatization” of DJs and Spanish-language Radio
Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: Spanish Language Radio
Proactive Mobilization: Since 1980s
Reactive Mobilization: Defensive Naturalization1990sSince 2006
Synergy of Proactive and Reactive Mobilization
Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: Naturalization
Proactive & Reactive Mobilization:Naturalization
Predictors of Intention to Naturalize
Pre-Immigrant
Marches Since Immigrant
Marches
Independent Variables % Chg. % Chg.
Age (Older)
Male Married High School Graduate Homeowner Residential Stability Television News Frequency Political Interest Trust In Government Resident in Protest Metro
Income >$24,999
"Very Well" Spoken English
U.S. Resident in years
Latino “participation puzzle”
Political context at the time of voter registration
Naturalized voters mobilized more
Reactive mobilization wanes after threat
The Changing California Voter: Case Study of Mobilizing Opportunities
Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort
Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort
Probability of voting predicted by nativity and registration cohort
From 1990 to 2010, the biggest changes in status quo was evident when there was a combination of reactive and proactive mobilization
Consequence is an evolving Latino electorate
Forthcoming changes, but from distinct sourcesYouth Immigrants
Will parties evolve in the extent to which they outreach to this changing population?
Redefining American Democracy
Symbolic partisan outreach vs mobilization
Mobilization and Microtargeting
Synergy of Proactive and Reactive Mobilization
Voter segmentation to segmented mobilizationHow is proactive voter mobilization impacted by
reactive mobilization effects?
Proactive & Reactive Mobilization: The Evolution of Latino Voter Mobilization
BREAK
Narratives about Asian Americans:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use
Narratives about Asian Americans:Rinse, Recycle, and Re-use
Apathetic Asian Americans? Why Their Success Hasn’t Spilled Over into Politics -- Washington Post 1992
Percent Asian-American of Population
1960: 1 million AAPI2012: 15.5 million AAPIFastest growing racial category (46%)
By comparison9 million LGBT Americans,~3% of the total U.S. population
6.5 million Jewish Americans~2% of the total U.S. population
Rapid Population Growth
Ethnic Diversity within Population16 primary distinct ethnic origins
Largest groups: Chinese, Asian Indian, Filipino, Vietnamese , Korean, Japanese, Pakistani
Fastest Growing Asian Indian and Vietnamese
Since 2003, naturalizations of Asian immigrants have outnumbered their counterparts from North America every year, except for 2008 and 2012
Median age of 36 means Asian Americans are significantly younger than whites (40.2) but are older, on average, than Latinos or Pacific Islanders
AAPI turnout broke records in 20123.9 million (up from 2.05 million in 2000)Percent of electorate: 2.6% (2008) 2.9% (2012)
AAPI Citizens, AAPI Voters
Lack of consistent media attention
Ethnic media more segmented
Visible role of AAPI elite
Asian American party ID deemed less rigid
AAPI and Politics
Politically apathetic?
Focus on home country?
Low party identification? Language barriers?
Why is voting lower?
Politically apathetic NO
Political Participation by Immigrant Generation
Politically apathetic? NO
Political Participation by Length of Stay
Focus on home country? NO
Does attention to the homeland REDUCE participation in the United States?
Likelyvoter Contribute Contact Protest
Solvecommunityproblems
Money home(36%) 46% 14% 11% 5% 25%
No moneyhome 44% 12% 8% 4% 19%
Homelandpolitics (4%) 38% 23% 33% 25% 21%
No homelandpolitics 46% 12% 8% 9% 6%
Language Barrier? some
Political Participation by English proficiency, among U.S. citizens
Low Party Identification? Yes
“Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, some other party, or do you not think in these terms?”
ASN IND CHIN FILIP JAPAN KOR VIET TOTAL
Republican 9% 8% 16% 13% 17% 31% 14%
Democrat 35% 25% 34% 40% 38% 20% 31%
Indep./Other 22% 28% 18% 16% 11% 18% 20%Do not think in these terms 34% 39% 32% 31% 34% 31% 35%
What explains Asian American political participation?
Asian American Political
ParticipationImmigrant
socialization
Racial/ethnic identity
Parties/political institutions
Political orientation
Civic engagement
Sociopolitical context
Proactive MobilizationReactive Mobilization
In 1990s defensive naturalization2006, perceived threat not as evident2012-now, Unauthorized immigrants
demobilized?ONLY 24% of eligible Koreans, 26% of eligible
Filipinos and 28% of eligible Indians applied for DACA.
Heterogeneous group
No unified ethnic media message
Mobilization important but different
The Economist – Special Issue – March 2015The rise of Latinos [AND Asians] is a huge
opportunity. The United States must not squander it
How to fire up America?