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Sovereign Debt Levels
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Fault Lines in Europe Haves and Have Nots
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GDP = C + I + G + (X M)
The Elements of Growth
Is that all there is?
Whole Clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyq7WRr_GPg&feature=player_embedded
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Quantitative Easing Whats in Your Wallet?
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Dynamics of Housing Price Bubble and Collapse
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When is an Asset not a Liability?
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The Problem with QE, QE2, QEn
MV = pY
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Velocity is NOT Constant
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Fed Expansion of U.S. Money Supply
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8/8/2019 Rickards Brief
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Sub-Critical and Critical StatesAssume 100 People repudiate the
dollar in each case
in total population of 311,001,000 people
Case 1
Sub-Critical Thresholds
1,000 people / T= 500
1 million people / T = 10,000
10 million people / T = 100,000
100 million people / T= 10 mil.
200 million people / T = 50 mil.
Case 2
Critical Thresholds
1,000 people / T= 100
1 million people / T = 1,000
10 million people / T = 100,000
100 million people / T= 10 mil.
200 million people / T = 50 mil.
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Sovereign Debt Rollover Risk
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The Rise of State Capitalism
Theory of Classical Mercantilism
Washington Consensus Countries in Convergence
Beijing Consensus Nationalism over Economics
Neomercantilism Victory in a Negative Sum Game
Cyber warfare Currency War Trade War Kinetic War
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The United States as Gold Superpower
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Which of these is not like the others?
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The Implied Price of Gold Window on Future
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8,133
3,406
2,966
2,451 2,435
1,054 1,040 765668
7,544
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Germany IMF Italy France China Switzerland Japan Russia All
Others
Official Gold Holdings Total 30,462 Metric Tonnes
MetricTon
nes
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United States 27%
Germany 11%
IMF 10%
Italy 8%
France 8%
China 3%
Switz. 3%
Japan 3%
Russia 2%
All Others 25%
Official Gold Holdings as a Percentage of
Total Global Gold Holdings
United States
Germany
IMF
Italy
France
China
Switzerland
Japan
Russia
All Others
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10,798
8,133
2,966
1,054 1,040 765 668 557 423
5,098
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Me
tricTonnes
Holdings with Eurosystem Total 30,462 Metric Tonnes
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Eurosystem 34%
United States 26%
IMF 10%
China 3%
Switzerland 3%
Japan 3%
Russia 2%
India 2%
Taiwan 1%
All Others 16%
Holdings with Eurosystem as a Percentage of Total
Global Gold Holdings
Eurosystem
United States
IMF
China
Switzerland
Japan
Russia
India
Taiwan
All Others
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75.0%72.8%
68.1% 67.0%
65.6%
16.6%
6.0%
7.5%
5.5%1.6% 0.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Greece UnitedStates
Germany Italy France UK Ireland India Russia China Brazil
Gold Reserves as a Percentage of Total Reserves for Selected
Countries
G ld R P f GDP f S l d C i
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5.00%
4.50%
2.90% 2.80%
2.30%
1.00%
0.80% 0.70%
0.10% 0.01%0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Germany France UnitedStates Russia India China Japan UK Brazil
Canada
Gold Reserves as a Percentage of GDP for Selected Countries
GDP
$3.3
T/Gold
$170B
GDP
$2.7
T/Gold
$121B
GDP
$14.1
T/Gold$
407B
GDP
$1.2
T/Gold$3
3.4
B
GDP
$1
.2T/Gold$27.9
B
GDP
$5T/Gold$52B
GD
P
$5T/Gold$38.3
B
GDP
$2.2
T/Gold$15.5
B
GDP
$1.6
T/
Gold$1.7
B
GDP
$1.3
T/G
old$.0
17B
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Policy and Prospects
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1:35 to 5:30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1aQ-XGWors&feature=related
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THANK-YOU
JAMES G. RICKARDSOMINS, INC.
[email protected]/JamesGRickards
