7/24/2019 Riding the Rollercoasters
1/1
vox populiMagazine forBusiness &Consumers
facebook.com/navhindtimes [email protected]
Navhind TimesIMonday November 2, 2015
Many enterpriseswith successfully designed business modhave gone
out of existence due to mismanagement of cash
BY ADV. JATIN RAMAIYA
Parvati V Mohite, Borda resi-dent recently approachedthe
Consumer DisputeRedressal Forum, South Goacomplaining against
tele-
com company Vodafone. She statedthat she was a prepaid
subscriberof Vodafone since2008 and hence aconsumer. Accord-ing to
her Voda-fone fraudulently
billed her Rs 0.26paise and Rs 0.15paise and thesame amount
wasillegally deductedfrom her prepaidaccount.
Mohite issued a legal noticehowever since Vodafone did notreply
or comply she had no otheroption but to approach the forum.The
Forum in its proceedings issuednotice of admission to Vodafoneand
Vodafone in its reply statedthat the telephone connection in
dispute is not registered in thename of complainant i.e.
Mohiteand hence she is not a consumer.Considering the entire case
at handthe Forum held that Mohite has nolocus standi to file the
present com-plaint as she is not a subscriber/
consumer. The advocate for the op-posite parties is brought to
noticethat the prepaid customer informa-tion form which is placed
on recordand says that the SIM card is nottransferable and that if
any misuseof SIM by the customer or anyperson is done it is illegal
and shallbe liable for criminal action. The
customer applica-tion was signed byUttam Lad.
The Forumwhilst dismiss-
ing the complaintsought to imposecost of Rs 5,000on Mohite
andpayable to theConsumer WelfareFund. However
considering that she was a unedu-cated women and other facets
ofcase refrained from imposing suchcosts.
This case in itself demonstratesa new trend in the Consumer
Fo-rums of frivolous and vexatious.The Consumer Protection Act,
itself
provides that in circumstance theConsumer Forums have
enormouspowers to impose costs upto Rs10,000 on persons who claim
to beconsumers and file frivolous andvexatious complaints with
ulteriormotives.
Vodafone winsagainstfrivolouscomplaint
BY TENSING RODRIGUES*
Ores, slag and ash
accounted for about 13
per cent of Brazilian
exports in 2014. While
iron and steel, sugar,tea, coffee and spices accounted
for another 21 per cent which
means that about 45 per cent of
Brazils exports are commodities.
So is the case with Algeria,
Republic of Congo, Nigeria, South
Africa and Zambia. And thecommodity prices are sinking.
Commodity prices move in cycles that
may extend across decades. That is why theyare often called
super cycles. These long term
swings in prices are driven by both supply and
demand, as well as the technological changes
that affect production and consumption.
In the last century we experienced fourcycles - the first from
1894 to 1932, it
peaked in 1917. The second cycle from 1932
to 1973 peaked in 1951, the third cycles
(1973-1999) peaked in 1974 and the fourth
started in 1999 and peaked in 2010. A
commodity cycle is driven by forces that alter
the long term demand or supply for one or
more commodities. For instance when Chinaembarked on a massive
infrastructure build
up, it created a huge surge in demand forsteel, cement, oil and
metals, fuelling a secular
commodity price boom. Remember that such
a price boom has cascading effect as it does
not remain confined to the initial increase in
demand. The income resulting from that boomflows into the
exporting economies triggering
a second round of demand
in those countries and other
commodities; and so on.The virtuous cycle feeds on
itself till a slowdown in the
initiating economy puts the
brakes on the process and
the cascade reverses. The
slowdown in the Chinese
economy is now pulling down
the commodity prices. Remember that
commodity prices are driven
by both actual demand
as well as the speculative
demand. China was not only buying steel and
copper metal, but was also hoarding thesethrough forward
contracts that were drivingthe future prices through the sky. Every
wise
commodity investor tried to have a share
in that pie in the sky. Like in all speculative
trading any small change in current demand
gets magnified in future demand. Since it
is a high risk game the players are very
sensitive to any changes in expectations. They
immediately unwind positions triggering acascading reaction.
More actively traded the
commodity the sharper is the fall.
Oil is a good illustration of how supply
side dynamics work. Oil prices remained
above US $100 a barrel for long spurring
technological innovation in oil exploration.Alternative sources
of oil existed all along
butwere deemed too costly when oil wasbelow US $50 a barrel.
High oil prices led to
high-pressure drilling (fracking) in the US and
oil sands extraction in Canada. That altered
the supply of oil.
What is likely to be the impa
commodity cycle rounding the pe
a still fragile world economy the
commodity prices is yet another
follow on effects of cuts in capit
and job cuts could be a drag on g
Nigeria for instance, has seen itsprojections for 2015 being
slash
half. Kazakhstans growth rate ha
to 1.5 per cent this year from 6 p
before the petroleum collapse. Th
GDP has actually contracted by 1
Commodity exporters have to no
further problem as investors pul
countries, leaving them in utter d The oil-price decline is
benefi
deficient economies like the US, Europe. India too is in a sweet
sp
oil prices have helped to modera
inflation. But while deflation in c
prices certainly gives us a lot of
have to also realise that the hug
destruction thats happening in crich countries will impact us as
w
indirectly. It is a bad news for ou
as we are already seeing month-
decline in our export performan
perspective of FII flows the sell o
emerging markets on growing re
the commodity party is over memarket also faces collateral
dam
large portion of emerging markeby global investors are into
fund
across EMs, including India.
>*The author is an investment consReaders can send their
comments [email protected]
Riding the rollercoast
