Risk Assessment of Ship Collision with Platform

8/10/2019 Risk Assessment of Ship Collision with Platform

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COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT OF VESSEL

AND PLATFORM: CASE STUDY OF

PLATFORM CONSTRUCTION PROJECT AT

BINTUNI BAY WEST PAPUA

Presented by: Muhammad Habib Chusnul FIkri

Department of Marine Engineering

Faculty of Marine Technology

Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember


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Purpose

- To identify impactconsequence

- To identify collisionfrequency

- To measure risk of

collision

- To give justification ofmitigation effort toreduce risk

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Description of FacilityThe closest distancebetween platforms tothe center of theshipping lane is around3000 m.

Platform A

Platform B

3


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MethodologySTART

PROBLEM

ANALYSIS

SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT

LITERATURE

STUDY

IMPACT

CONSEQUENCE

SIMULATION

USING FEM

COLLISION

FREQUENC

CALCULATION

EMPIRICAL

IMPACT

CONSEQUENCE

CALCULATION

VERIFIED ?nono

RISK

ACCEPTABLE

?

yes

CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATION

yes

MITIGATION

no

FINISH

4


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Passing Vessel Collision Geometry FCP = N x Fd x P

Where:

N = Total traffic in the lane (vesselmovements/year).

Fd = Proportion of vessels that are inthe part of the lane directedtowards the platform.

P = Probability of Collision per passing

vessel

Fd = D x [exp (-k2/2)]/ (2)

5

Human error Ship

control

failure

Platform Radar

Beacon Failure

80%

Ship Radar

Failure

15.4% Prop. system

failure

8% 2%

Prob of

Collision/passing8% Nav. system

failure

83.1%

1.66%


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Drifting Vessel Collision The mathematical equation is presentedas follow

FCD = Nb x P x D/BL

Where:

Nb = total traffic in the box(vessels/year)

P = breakdown or collisionprobability in box per passingvessel

D = collision diameter

BL = box length perpendicular to

wind direction

6

Wind/current

blow to

platform

10%

Human error Ship

control

failure

Platform Radar

Beacon Failure

80% Prob of

Collision/

passing8% Nav. system

failure

83.1%

0.17%

Ship Radar

Failure

15.4% Prop. system

failure

8% 2%


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Visiting Vessel Collision

A = arctan [(D1 + D2)/2L]

where:

A = angle subtended byplatform (rad)

D1 = width of tanker normalto drift track

D2 = width of platformnormal to drift track

L = initial distance oftanker from platform

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Failure Rate Data

8

Below data are used. These data are cumulative valuse for 376 observedobjects of ships

Source: Kiriya, Nobuo. Statistical Study on Reliability of Ship Equipment andSafety Management

=


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Impact Energy

There are two criteria of impact level as follows:

Global failure; very large impact collision, resulting in a

very massive deformation that led to failureof structure and facility shutdown

Local failure; produced impact has exceeded the powerof material elasticity, resulting in permanentdeformation. However, failure of structurestill can be avoided so as facility shutdown isnot necessary.

= 1

2

k=1.1 for head on collision

K=1.4 for drifting collision

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Platform Structure

Structure Detail

1. Outer Leg: 1600 x 60 WT mmSteel

2. Inner Leg : 1372 x 38 WTmm concrete pile

3. Braces : 762 x 25 WT

mm Steel

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Dent DepthThe denting of a tubular is described by the equation below. This equation forimpact energy (E), obtained from integration of the impact force as a function ofthe dent depth, are:

[Reference: Visser Consultancy. Ship collision and capacity of brace members offixed steel offshore platform. 2004]

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Inner Concrete Pile Energy AbsorptionThere are concrete piles inside every legs platform structure with particulardimension. There is a gap between inner pile outer diameter and platform leginner diameter. Once the dent produced by impact energy is more than this

value, there is a value of absorbed energy by concrete pile which is calculated byfollowing equation:

Y = concrete crushing strength, taken as 120 MPa

Maksimum absorbed energy = 0.95 MJ

[Reference: DNV RPF107, sub 4.6.1]

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Head-on Collision for External Vessel (1)

Scenario:

1. Human error by standby

watching officer2. Failure of platform location

identification by navigationsystem

3. Failure of propulsion system-deadship

4. Failure of determining theshipping lane, causing theship take voyage lane nearplatform (within 500 mprohibited radius)

Ship is engaged in voyage from Maluku sea,entering bintuni bay towards bintuni port (fromsouth to north)

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No

1

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Fishing Vessel 10

Crew boat/Pass engger ferry 8.2

Type of Vessel Annual Traffic Breadth (m)

15

A 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

B 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%C 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%

D 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

E 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1%

H 2880 3456 4032 4608 5184

J 1709 1709 1709 1709 1709

K 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

L 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36 1.36

N 2320 2320 2320 2320 2320

O 1709 1709 1709 1709 1709

P 0.223 0.267 0.312 0.357 0.401

0.47%

5 th

five

year

2%

0.47% 0.47% 0.47% 0.47%

1.66%

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1.66% 1.66% 1.66%

2 nd

five

year

3 th

five

year

4 th

five

year

2%

G

40

Nav System Failure = 1-(1-A)(1-B)

Human error

Ship Control Failure = 1-(1-C)(1-D)

Collision Diameter = length of platform +

w idth of passing Vessel40 40

1.66%

2% 2%2%

Ship Radar Failure

F

I

Platform Radar Beacon Failure

This calculation is done for 25 years

li fetime of pla tform, by consi dering traffic

increment by 5% per year

1 st

five

year

M

standard deviation in meter

f(A ) = (0.5)exp(-k^2/2)/J

Annual Passing Vessel

Prop. system failure

k = distance/standard deviation

Fd = proportion of passing vessel crash

tow ard platform = K x I

Width of Shipping Lane (m)

Annual Frequency of Collision = GxHxM

Distance betw een Centerlane and platform

Prob. Of Collission/passing = CxExF


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No

1

21152

Fishing Vessel 10

Crew boat/Pass engger ferry 8.2

Type of Vessel Annual Traffic Breadth (m)

16

A 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

B 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

C 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%

D 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

E 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1%

H 2880 3456 4032 4608 5184

J 2333 2333 2333 2333 2333

K 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

L 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62

N 3789 3789 3789 3789 3789

O 2333 2333 2333 2333 2333

P 0.110 0.132 0.154 0.176 0.197

40

0.23%





2% 2%

Prob. Of Collission/passing = CxExF 1.66% 1.66%

5 th

five

year

2%


40


f(A) = (0.5)exp(-k^2/2)/J


Fd = proportion of passing vessel crash

tow ard platform = K x I0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23%

40

Prop. system failure 2%



1.66%1.66% 1.66%

2%

Ship Radar Failure


3 th

five

year

Human error


4 th

five

year

1 st

five

year

This cal culation is done for 25 years

lifetime of platform, by considering traffic


2 nd

five

year

F

G

I

M


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Head-on Collision for Internal Vessel (1)

17

No

1

2

3 General Cargo 104 22

23

Type of Vessel Annual Trafffic Breadth (m)

LNG Tanker 105 46

Condensate Tanker 23

A 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

B 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

C 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%

D 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

E 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1%

H 580 696 812 928 1044

J 2333 2333 2333 2333 2333

K 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.01%

L 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62 1.62

N 3789 3789 3789 3789 3789

O 2333 2333 2333 2333 2333

P 0.042 0.050 0.059 0.067 0.076

76

0.44%

5 th

five

year

2%

1.66%



Human error


3 th

five

year

4 th

five

year


li fetime of pl atform, by consi dering traffic


1 st

five

year

2 nd

five

year

Ship Radar Failure

1.66%

Prop. system failure 2% 2% 2% 2%

Prob. Of Collission/passing = CxExF 1.66% 1.66% 1.66%

76 76

0.44% 0.44% 0.44%








f(A) = (0.5)exp(-k^2/2)/J


Fd = proportion of pass ing vessel crashtow ard platform = K x I

F

G

I

M 0.44%


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Drifting Collision for External Vessel (1)

Scenario:

1. Human error by standby

watching officer2. Failure of platform location

identification by navigationsystem

3. Failure of propulsionsystem-deadship

4. Ship became adrift becauseof wind and current whilelost control

5. Collision happened becauseof ship already nearby

platform (within 500 mprohibited radius)Ship is engaged in voyage from Maluku sea,

entering bintuni bay towards bintuni port (fromsouth to north)

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D if i C lli i f I l V l (1)


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Drifting Collision for Internal Vessel (1)

22

No

1

2

3

105

23

General Cargo 104 22

Condensate Tanker 23


LNG Tanker 46

A 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

B 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

C 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%

D 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

E 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1%

H 580 696 812 928 1044

J 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

K1064 1064 1064 1064 1064

L 7.14% 7.14% 7.14% 7.14% 7.14%

M 0.069 0.083 0.096 0.110 0.124

F

G

This cal culation is done for 25 years

li fetime of pl atform, by consi dering traffic


Ship Radar Failure

Probability of w ind/current tow ard platform

Width of Collision Lane (m)Prob of Vessel inside Collision Lane

Annual Frequency of Collision



w idth of passing Vessel7676I 76 76 76

2% 2% 2%

0.17% 0.17%

5 st

five

year

2%

0.17%

2%

Probability of Collision per passing vessel 0.17%

Nav. system failure

Human error

Ship control failure

Prop. system failure

4 st

five

year


1 st

five

year

2 st

five

year

0.17%

3 st

five

year

D if i C lli i f I l V l (2)


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Drifting Collision for Internal Vessel (2)

23

No

1

2

3

Offshore Supply Vessel 116 24.4

Multi Purpose Support Vessel 2 18.8


Landing Craft Transport 10 24

A 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

B 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

C 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4% 15.4%

D 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

E 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1%

H 320 384 448 512 576

J 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%

K 879 879 879 879 879

L 6.19% 6.19% 6.19% 6.19% 6.19%

M 0.033 0.039 0.046 0.053 0.059

2 st

five

year


3 st

five

year


lifetime of platform, by considering traffic


1 st

five

year

54.4

Probability of w ind/current toward platform

Width of Collision Lane (m)

Prob of Vessel inside Collision Lane

Annual Frequency of Collision

54.4Collision Diameter = length of platform +

w idth of passing Vessel54.4 54.4

Human error

Ship control failure

Prop. system failure 2%

Ship Radar Failure

Nav. system failure

2%2% 2%2%

4 st

five

year

0.17%

54.4

F

G

I


Probability of Collision per passing vessel 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17%

5 st

five

year

Vi i i V l C lli i


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Visiting Vessel Collision

D1 62 62 62 62

D2 30 30 30 30

L 50 60 70 80

A 0.744 0.654 0.581 0.522

0.118 0.104 0.093 0.083

Distance w here maneuvering begins

Length of Vessel

Offshore Supply Vessel

Maneuvering dis tance is used a s cal culation variabe l to find out how

near the maneuvering di stance considerably sa fe

1.184 1.041 0.925 0.831

Length of Platform

Angle of maneuvering (radian)

Probability of Collision per visit

Annual probability of collision

Multi Purpose Support Vessel

D1 92.4 92.4 92.4 92.4

D2 30 30 30 30

L 140 150 160 170

A 0.412 0.387 0.365 0.346

0.066 0.062 0.058 0.055

Annual probability of collision 1.115 1.048 0.935

Probability of Collision per visit

Length of Vessel

Length of Platform

Distance w here maneuvering begins

Angle of maneuvering (radian)

Mane uvering distance is us ed as calculation varia bel to find out how

near the maneuvering dis tance consi derably safe

0.988

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CollisionConsequence

Results at Pile Leg


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26

(m) /D

4 0.47 0.04 2% 0 0

6 1.05 0.07 4% 0.16 0.01

8 1.86 0.10 6% RUPTURE RUPTURE









10 14.56 0.38 24% RUPTURE RUPTURE4 2.67 0.12 8% RUPTURE RUPTURE












Types of

Vessel

Ship

Displacement

Speed

[knot]

Fishing

boats/

Trawlers/

Small crew

200

Passenger/

Ferry850

Impact

Energy

[MJ]

1,146OSV

Landing

Craft Unit4,000

Pile Dent

[m]

Absorbed

Energy by

Pile [MJ]

Dent Depth

Multi

Purpose

Support

Vessel

8,840

Tug 1,000

Head onCollisionConsequenceson Leg


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27

Head onCollisionConsequenceson Leg

(m) /D















10 1528.35 8.44 528% RUPTURE RUPTURE

Dent DepthAbsorbed

Energy by

Pile [MJ]

Pile Dent

[m]

Speed

[knot]

Impact

Energy

[MJ]

Pipelaying

Vessel10,000

Types of

Vessel

Ship

Displacement

General

Cargo14,500

Condensate

Tanker17,010

LNG Tanker 105,000


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29

Drifting CollisionConsequenceson Leg (m) /D

1 1.64 0.09 6% 0.82 0.03

















Types of

Vessel

Ship

Displacement

Speed

[knot]

Impact

Energy

[MJ]

Dent DepthAbsorbed

Energy by

Pile [MJ]

Pile Dent

[m]

LNG Tanker 105,000

General

Cargo10,000

General

Cargo14,500

Condensate

Tanker17,010

Multi

Purpose

SupportVessel

8,840


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30

Head onCollisionConsequenceson Brace

(m) /D

4 0.47 0.09 12%

6 1.05 0.16 21%

8 1.86 0.23 30%10 2.91 0.31 41%

4 1.98 0.24 32%

6 4.45 0.41 54%

8 7.92 0.61 80%

10 12.37 0.82 107%

4 2.33 0.27 35%

6 5.24 0.46 60%

8 9.32 0.68 89%

10 14.56 0.91 119%

4 2.67 0.29 39%

6 6.01 0.50 66%

8 10.68 0.74 97%

10 16.68 1.00 131%4 9.32 0.68 89%

6 20.96 1.16 152%

8 37.26 1.70 224%

10 58.22 2.29 301%

Landing

Craft Unit4,000

Passenger/

Ferry850

Tug 1,000

OSV 1,146

Dent Depth

Fishing

boats/

Trawlers/Small crew

200

Types of

Vessel

Ship

Displacement

Speed

[knot]

Impact

Energy

[MJ]

Impact


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31

Head onCollisionConsequenceson Brace

(m) /D

4 20.59 1.15 151%

6 46.32 1.97 259%

8 82.35 2.89 379%

10 128.67 3.89 511%

4 23.29 1.25 163%

6 52.40 2.14 281%

8 93.16 3.14 412%

10 145.56 4.23 555%

4 33.77 1.60 209%

6 75.98 2.74 360%8 135.08 4.02 528%

10 211.06 5.41 711%

4 39.61 1.78 233%

6 89.13 3.05 400%

8 158.46 4.47 587%

10 247.59 6.02 790%4 244.54 5.97 784%

6 550.20 10.26 1346%

8 978.14 15.05 1975%

10 1528.35 20.27 2660%

Dent DepthSpeed

[knot]

Impact

Energy

[MJ]

GeneralCargo

14,500

Condensate

Tanker17,010

LNG Tanker 105,000

Pipelaying

Vessel10,000

Multi

Purpose

Support

Vessel

8,840

Types of

Vessel

Ship

Displacement

Sim lation in 7 42 MJ impact energ


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32

Simulation in 7.42 MJ impact energy

Rather then modeling a ship or simplification of impact energysimulation, the colliding object simplified as shown above, withparticular mass, velocity, and impact energy

Simulation in 66 77 MJ impact energy


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33


This simulation aims to determine the depth of penetration of the steelstructure of the platform leg


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35





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36



Impact Analysis Result


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Impact Analysis Result

From this analysis, it canbe concluded that

estimate value of impactenergy absorbed byplatform structure isabout 37% of totalimpact energy (kineticenergy from ship)

37


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Conclusion


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Conclusion

39

By adding restricted area buoy marks, with following coordinates:Coordinate 1

20 21` 29.7`` S1330 4` 48.0`` E

Coordinate 220 21` 6.7`` S

1330 4` 48.0`` E


1330 5` 11.0`` E


1330 5` 11.0`` E


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Thank You Very Much

Documents

Risk Assessment of Ship Collision with Platform