Risk Assessment & Risk Risk Assessment & Risk Reduction in Environmental PolicyReduction in Environmental Policy

Risk in Environmental Risk in Environmental PolicyPolicy

„„The likelihoodThe likelihood of an adverse of an adverse outcomeoutcome

„„ To human healthTo human health„„ To ecological health (?)To ecological health (?)

„„Risk reduction prioritiesRisk reduction priorities„„Risk tradeoffsRisk tradeoffs & Risk-balancing& Risk-balancing

„„ Everything we do carries some riskEverything we do carries some risk„„ Case of chlorinated water [Putnam, Case of chlorinated water [Putnam, et al.]et al.]

„„Risk-based statutes & regulationsRisk-based statutes & regulations„„ E.O 12866 [Clinton 1993]E.O 12866 [Clinton 1993]

Risk Assessment & Risk Assessment & AnalysisAnalysis

„„Objective (Scientific) DimensionObjective (Scientific) Dimension„„Risk characterizationRisk characterization

„„Subjective (Value-based) Subjective (Value-based) DimensionDimension

„„What to do?What to do?„„Uncertain RisksUncertain Risks

„„Long-term v. short-term risksLong-term v. short-term risks

„„Distributional (environmental justice) Distributional (environmental justice) risksrisks

„„Costly Risk reduction programsCostly Risk reduction programs

Defining Characteristics of Defining Characteristics of “ “Environmental” RiskEnvironmental” Risk

„„The probability of an adverse outcomeThe probability of an adverse outcome

„„Type & severity of adverse outcomeType & severity of adverse outcome

„„The size of the exposed populationThe size of the exposed population

„„Certainty of risk estimatesCertainty of risk estimates

„„Timing of adverse outcomesTiming of adverse outcomes

„„Distribution of adverse outcomesDistribution of adverse outcomes

Source: John D. Graham & Jonathan Bert Wiener (1995) Risk vs. Risk (Cambridge, MA: Harvard UniversityPress)

Scientific Dimension of RiskScientific Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessment

1.1.Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification„„Could this substance pose a health threat & if so, what kind?Could this substance pose a health threat & if so, what kind?

2.2.Dose-Response AnalysisDose-Response Analysis„„How does the degree of exposure to the substance related How does the degree of exposure to the substance related to theto the degree of toxic effect?degree of toxic effect?

„„Missing data problemMissing data problem„„Uncertainties & long time frame of epidemiological studiesUncertainties & long time frame of epidemiological studies„„Uncertainties of animal studiesUncertainties of animal studies

3.3.Exposure AssessmentExposure Assessment„„What are the characteristics of public exposure to this substance?What are the characteristics of public exposure to this substance?„„Social/cultural “biases” in exposureSocial/cultural “biases” in exposure

4.4.Risk CharacterizationRisk Characterization„„Combining dose-response and exposure data, how is public Combining dose-response and exposure data, how is public healthhealth affected?affected?

Subjective Dimension of RiskSubjective Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessment„„What is What is “Sound” “Sound” Science?Science?

„„How much science do we need to make the “righHow much science do we need to make the “righ t” decisiot” decision?n?

„„Who should bear the regulatory burden until we have “eWho should bear the regulatory burden until we have “enoughnough information?”information?”

„„Risk PhilosophyRisk Philosophy„„Precautionary Principle: Assume toxicity until proven safe.Precautionary Principle: Assume toxicity until proven safe.

„„ If in doubt, then regulate.If in doubt, then regulate.„„ Business bears the burdenBusiness bears the burden

„„Free Market Principle: Assume it is safe until a hazard isFree Market Principle: Assume it is safe until a hazard is ididentified.entified.

„„ If in doubt, do not regulate.If in doubt, do not regulate.„„ Public bears the burdenPublic bears the burden

Subjective Dimension of RiskSubjective Dimension of Risk AssessmentAssessment„„Risk Reduction PrioritiesRisk Reduction Priorities

„„ Natural vs. human-induced risksNatural vs. human-induced risks

„„ Geographic, social, and class-biased Geographic, social, and class-biased riskrisk burdensburdens

„„ Immediate vs. long-term risksImmediate vs. long-term risks„„ Certain vs. uncertain risksCertain vs. uncertain risks

„„What is “Acceptable” Risk?What is “Acceptable” Risk?„„ EPA: 4000 additional lifetime deaths EPA: 4000 additional lifetime deaths fromfrom arsenic-induced cancerarsenic-induced cancer

• 1

Risk TradeoffsRisk Tradeoffs

Compared to Target Risk, thCompared to Target Risk, thee

Countervailing Ris k is:Countervailing Ris k is:Compared Compared

totoTarget Risk, Target Risk,

thetheCountervailiCountervaili

ng ng Risk Risk

Affects:Affects:

DIFFERENTDIFFERENT POPULATIOPOPULATIONN

SAMESAMEPOPULATIONPOPULATION

SAME TYPESAME TYPE

Risk OffsetRisk Offset

Risk TransferRisk Transfer

DIFFEREDIFFERENTNT

TYPTYPEE

Risk SubstitutionRisk Substitution

RiskRiskTransformationTransformation

Source: John D. Graham & Jonathan Bert Wiener (1995) Risk vs. Risk(Cambridge, MA: Harvard UniversityPress)

Policy Impact of Risk Policy Impact of Risk EmphasisEmphasis„„Forces policy makers to compare Forces policy makers to compare

environmentalenvironmental dangers to human health & solutionsdangers to human health & solutions inin similarsimilar termsterms„„Biases policy process toward human health Biases policy process toward human health andand away from ecological concernsaway from ecological concerns„„Delays in getting data/science can stall Delays in getting data/science can stall policypolicy making in name of “sound” sciencemaking in name of “sound” science

„„Favors “wait & see” approachFavors “wait & see” approach„„crisis-triggered policy makingcrisis-triggered policy making

„„Biases the policy process towards experts Biases the policy process towards experts andand away from the publicaway from the public

„„Tend to have opposite assessment of risksTend to have opposite assessment of risks

PerceptionsPerceptionsofofRiskRiskWhich Matters More: Science orWhich Matters More: Science or

Politics?Politics?

““Chemicals in the Environment Pose Chemicals in the Environment Pose and Increasing Risk to Society”and Increasing Risk to Society”

LiberLiberalal

ModeratModeratee

ConservatiConservativeve

AgreAgreee

DisagreDisagreee

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

““Animal Models are a Valid MethodAnimal Models are a Valid Methodfor Assessing Risk”for Assessing Risk”

LiberLiberalal

ModeratModeratee

ConservatiConservativeve

AgreAgreee

DisagreDisagreee

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

LiberLiberalal

ModeratModeratee

ConservatiConservativeve

AgreAgreee

DisagreDisagreee

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

DisagreDisagreee

AgreAgreee

TotalTotal

◎ No differences

between parties

or by gender

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

AgreAgreee

DisagreDisagreee

RepublicaRepublicann

DemocratDemocratTotalTotal

““Decisions about siting aDecisions about siting a HWFshoulHWFshouldd

be made primarily based on neighbors’be made primarily based on neighbors’concerns, not risk numbers…”concerns, not risk numbers…”

Source: Nevin Cohen (1997) “The Politics of Environmental Risk,” Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 470-484.

DisagreDisagreee

AgreAgreee

WomenWomenMeMenn

““It can never be too expensive toIt can never be too expensive toreduce the risks associated withreduce the risks associated with chemicals…”chemicals…”

RepublicaRepublica

nn

DemocratDemocratTotalTotal

TotalTotal

EnvironmentalEnvironmental CoverageCoverage NYT IndexNYT Index