Risk Management and Resilience Assessment of Protection ... · Natural hazards Seismic Flooding Subsidence Hurricanes X Landslides Volcanic eruption Wildfire Technological and manmade

Risk Management and Resilience Assessment of Protection Works against

Natural Hazards in Mountains

Petri Net based Approach for Prioritizing Preventive Maintenance strategies

Nour CHAHROUR1*

, Jean-Marc TACNET1, Christophe BERENGUER

2

1 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Irstea, ETNA, 38000 Grenoble, France.

2 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble-INP, GIPSA-lab, 38000 Grenoble, France.

* Email: [email protected]

Abstract

Natural hazards in mountain’s regions (e.g. torrential floods, landslides) generate danger and put people and assets at risk. Most of natural phenomena that occur in mountains correspond to a rapid mass movement hazards whose physical behavior induce severe and specific damage to ex-posed elements. These phenomena, such as torrential floods, are usually characterized in terms of magnitude (e.g. discharge rate), intensity (e.g. speed), effect (e.g. scouring), and frequency and may be very destructive. In the field of natural hazards, risk is defined as a combination of hazard (intensity and frequency) and vulnerability (potential damage of elements at risk). Generally, risk management involves identifying the risk level and then choosing the best strategy for prevention or mitigation. Risk reduction measures may be non-structural such as risk zoning maps and/or structural such as protection works. In France, since the 19th century, a huge number of torrential correction works were built. Checkdams, are the most used civil engineering structures in torrential watersheds. These structures aim in limiting the intensity of the hazard by acting on its causes. However, their aging with time requires evaluating their efficacy and resilience for assessing the reduced level of risk. Protection works are constructed in series constituting a complex system of systems. They are considered as critical infrastructures in which their failure increase risk to people and assets. The complexity is due to the interactions between structures, failure modes, and natural phe-nomena (cascade events). Therefore, identifying and analyzing such dependencies and under-standing system resilience and sustainability are key issues. Risk management decisions are based on imperfect information (uncertainty, imprecision, incom-plete knowledge, etc.) extracted either from historical data, expert assessments, or after numeri-cal simulations. It is essential to assess the effect of imperfect information on the decision in or-der to take the most appropriate management decision. Structures are aging and their deterioration can have dramatic consequences on protected stakes. Maintenance of these pro-tection works is costly. Therefore, one main decision-making issue consists in choosing the best maintenance strategy. This study combines different disciplines including civil engineering, safety and reliability analysis,

natural hazards, and decision sciences. It presents a new approach based on petri nets and Monte

Carlo simulation that is able to analyze dependencies and to assess the relevance of the proposed

2

decisions regarding maintenance of protection works. It offers a generic dynamic way to compare

maintenance, inspection, and reparation strategies in terms of time and cost.

Keywords

Natural hazards in mountains, risk management, cascade events, critical protection works, pre-

ventive maintenance, decision-making, Petri nets, checkdams.

3

MEETING FORMAT*

*Select an option (X).

Regular Poster Presentation

X

(2) Young Scientist Poster Presentation

Regular Oral Presentation

X

(1) Young Scientist Oral Presentation

Symposia

Roundtable

(1) First Priority

(2) Second Priority

4

AREAS*

Natural hazards

Seismic

X Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

X Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire

Technological and manmade hazards

Chemical and petrochemical industry

Nuclear industry

New and emergent technologies

Transportation

Natech

X Critical infrastructures

Cyber attacks

Terrorism

Complex hazard interactions and sys-

temic risks

Climate change and its impact

Natech

Epidemics / pandemics

X Critical infrastructures

TOPICS*

*Select an option (X)

Learning from experience

Organizations, territories and experience feedback

X Expertise and knowledge management

Weak signals

Early warning systems

Social and human sciences for risk

and disaster management

Human, organizational and societal factors

Risk perception, communication and governance

Systemic approaches

Risk and safety culture

Resilience, vulnerability and sustainability: concepts and

applications

History and learning from major accidents and disasters

Territorial and geographical approaches to major acci-

dents and disasters

Social and behavioral aspects

5

Cross-disciplinary challenges for inte-

grated disaster risk management

X Compound/cascading disasters (simultaneous and/or co-

located) and Mega-disasters

Connecting observed data and disaster risk management

decision-making

Practical applications of Integrated Disaster Risk Man-

agement

Development and disasters

Build Back Better (than Before)

Disaster-driven innovation and transformation

STGs and disaster governance

Complex systems

X Complexity Modeling

X System of Systems / Distributed Systems

X Critical Infrastructures

Probabilistic Networks

Economics and Insurance

X Disaster impacts and economic loss estimation

X Cost-benefit approaches

Insurance and reinsurance

Decision, risk and uncertainty

X Decision aiding and decision analysis.

Disaster risk communication

Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility

Governance, citizen participation and deliberation

Community engagement and communication

Scientific evidence-based decision-making, modelling

and analytics

Policy analysis

X Uncertainty and ambiguity

Multi-criteria decision aid and analysis

Operational research

Artificial intelligence, big data and text

data mining

Disaster informatics, big data, etc.

Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

6

Engineering Models

Numerical modelling & functional numerical modeling

Formal models / formal proofs

X Model-based approach

Safe and resilient design and management.

Legislation, standardization and im-

plementation

Certification and standardization.

Regulation and legislation.

Legal issues (scientific expertise, liability, etc.).

Precautionary principle and risk control and mitigation.

SIGNIFICANCE TO THE FIELD*


Demonstrates current theory or practice

Employs established methods to a new question

Presents new data

Presents new analysis

X Presents a new model

Groundbreaking

Assesses developments in the field, in one or more

countries

Other (Please specify)

EXPECTED CONTRIBUTIONS*


Theoretical

Applied

X Theoretical and Applied

Review

Perspective

Other (Please specify, e.g. success/failure practices, les-

sons learned, and other implementation evidence)

New individual risk measures for rockfall prone areas

Manon Farvacque1, Nicolas Eckert1, Franck Bourrier1, Christophe Corona2, Jérôme Lopez-Saez3, David Toe4

1 Université Grenoble Alpes, IRSTEA, UR ETNA, Grenoble, FR

2 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique CNRS, UMR 6042, GEOLAB, Clermont-Ferrand, FR

3 Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, CH

4 Université Grenoble Alpes, IRSTEA, UR LESSEM, Grenoble, FR

Email: [email protected]

Abstract

A rockfall corresponds to the detachment of a rock block from a vertical or sub-vertical cliff

and to its travel down the slope by rapid motions. Some rockfall have enough energy to reach urban-

ized areas, causing damages to buildings and critical infrastructure and/or injuring people. Rockfall

mitigation through rigorous land-use planning and/or design of defense structures is therefore a cru-

cial issue for authorities and stakeholders in rockfall prone areas. Specifically, hazard and risk zoning

require risk assessment approaches as specific and comprehensive as possible to optimize land use

in areas where real estate pressure is continuously increasing. However, the quantitative estimation

of rockfall risk remains challenging due to i) the spatially distributed nature of rockfall processes, for

which both the probability of an impact and intensity vary significantly along block trajectories, ii) the

scarcity of existing structural vulnerability functions available in the literature and iii) the numerous

variability and uncertainty sources at play. Mathematically consistent approaches are especially lack-

ing for evaluating individual risk as a continuous function of space usable in areas where new con-

structions are envisaged. As a consequence, existing quantitative risk assessments (QRA) methods

applicable in rockfall-prone regions remains scarce, making often use of various rules of thumbs and

shortcuts for the definition of hazard and they remain mostly limited to the evaluation of risk for al-

ready existing buildings and infrastructures. In addition, risk remains in this field – as for most of

natural hazards – always defined as the damage expectation. This risk measure has many suitable

properties, but also some limitations, among which a lack of flexibility to account for different prefer-

ences of decision-makers facing risk.

In this study, we aim at proposing an approach for estimating and mapping individual rockfall risk at

each location along a slope by combining a rockfall simulation model with the physical vulnerability

of potentially affected buildings and the complete distribution of block volumes in the range 1–20 m3.

In addition, by contrast to previous studies, we complement the damage expectation by estimating

two quantile-based measures, namely the value-at-risk (VaR) and the expected shortfall (ES). These

metrics, defined as the α-quantile and the expected-value above VaR of the damage distribution,

respectively, were successfully adopted by financial institutions to better assess the risk due to ex-

treme events. This approach has been applied to Le Brocey site (municipality of Crolles, French

Alps), frequently affected by rockfall events originated from a large limestone cliff. Results including

VaR and ES estimates expressing severity of losses beyond a confidence level demonstrate that a

portfolio of refined individual risk measures can thus be provided. The resulting panel of individual

risk maps constitutes an appropriate basis for land use planning choices corresponding to different

short term or long term constraints. This should help finding the right balance between the need for

safety and sustainable development in various contexts.

mailto:[email protected]

2

Keywords

Individual rockfall risk, Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), Quantile-based risk measures.

MEETING FORMAT*



Young Scientist Poster Presentation


X Young Scientist Oral Presentation

Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

X Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech

Critical infrastructures

Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*




Expertise and knowledge management

Weak signals






Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters


4



Compound/cascading disasters (simultaneous and/or co-



decision-making


agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling

System of Systems / Distributed Systems

Critical Infrastructures



X Disaster impacts and economic loss estimation

Cost-benefit approaches



Decision aiding and decision analysis.


Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility




and analytics

Policy analysis

Uncertainty and ambiguity




data mining


Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models



X Model-based approach



plementation









Presents new data

X Presents new analysis

X Presents a new model

Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied


Review

Perspective



Critical Lifeline Recovery

Reusable Infrastructure Systems Modeling for Urban Recovery Planning

Andrew Deelstra1, David N Bristow1

1 Cities and Infrastructure Systems Lab, Department of Civil Engineering University of Victoria,

Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

Email: [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract

Urban areas are heavily reliant on infrastructure systems that enable the normal function of their

residents, businesses, and daily operations. Natural hazards, such as earthquakes and floods,

threaten to disrupt these systems and the communities they support. The rapid restoration of criti-

cal infrastructure lifelines after disasters ensures that broader urban recovery can then proceed

smoothly. Emergency managers and others involved in recovery efforts must be aware of the criti-

cal infrastructure systems within their communities and the resources that are necessary to pro-

mote their prompt recovery if operations are disrupted after a disaster. In southwestern British Co-

lumbia, Canada, municipal and institutional partners are motivated to promote disaster risk

reduction strategies that protect communities in this region as they face rapid population growth in

the coming years. A federally supported research project has been established to support these

goals given the specific threats that floods and earthquakes pose in this region. One goal of this

research project is the development of a flexible, reusable tool that can model the interdependen-

cies between infrastructure systems and demonstrate how their performance and recovery pro-

gress over time after a disruption.

The work presented here involves the ongoing utilization of the Graph Model for Operational Resili-

ence (GMOR) for this purpose, using a previous case study involving the District of North Vancou-

ver, one of the municipalities in the region of the overall research project. The GMOR model for the

district includes water distribution, wastewater collection, electric power distribution, and road and

highway networks. Key findings from this study include the impact that resource availability and the

ordering of repair tasks have on recovery time. These findings will be used to: (1) inform efficient

processes for modeling infrastructure systems in GMOR; and (2) produce generic models that can

be populated with data from other communities. Models will be updated and tested with information

from municipalities regarding anticipated population and infrastructure changes. In collaboration

mailto:[email protected],

2

with insights from other project partners, these results will promote best practices for disaster risk

reduction strategies in the study area as part of local growth planning processes.

Keywords

Recovery Modeling; Critical Infrastructure; Resilient Systems

MEETING FORMAT*


x Regular Poster Presentation

x Young Scientist Poster Presentation

x Regular Oral Presentation

x Young Scientist Oral Presentation

Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

x Seismic

x Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech

x Critical infrastructures

Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals




x Human, organizational and societal factors


x Systemic approaches


x Resilience, vulnerability and sustainability: concepts and

applications



dents and disasters


4






decision-making

x Practical applications of Integrated Disaster Risk Man-

agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling

x System of Systems / Distributed Systems

x Critical Infrastructures

x Probabilistic Networks


Disaster impacts and economic loss estimation




x Decision aiding and decision analysis.


Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility



x Scientific evidence-based decision-making, modelling

and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models



x Model-based approach



plementation









x Presents new data

x Presents new analysis

Presents a new model

Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied

x Theoretical and Applied

Review

Perspective



Haiti, A Fragile State in Disaster

The international management of the 12th January Earthquake

Clément Paule1

1 PhD in Political Science, Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne University


Abstract

Based on a two-year fieldwork (drawing on interviews with local stakeholders, reporting and media

analysis), this presentation aims to analyze the transnational management of the 2010 Haitian earth-

quake. This catastrophe occurred in a country which was already in an emergency situation due to

a combination of political upheaval and several natural disasters. Between 2000 and 2010, Haiti was

indeed targeted by a significant increase of humanitarian assistance and international intervention

embodied by the deployment of a major peacekeeping operation. Thus, the 2010 mega-disaster

came to exacerbate those conditions while triggering a massive and unprecedented outpouring of

foreign funds, human resources and expertise in order to answer to this major crisis. However, this

response wasn’t only designed to handle the emergency and the immediate recovery. International

assistance also intended to build back better the capital of Port-au-Prince and its surroundings, as

well as enhancing the whole country development. I will argue that this case study highlights the

collateral effects and limits of standardized humanitarian aid within the context of a weakened and

fragile State. The role of the Haitian government remained deeply ambiguous since it was both de

jure sovereign and de facto sidelined in the management of the crisis. Among the main effects of

transnational intervention was the protracted marginalization of local actors during the recovery pro-

cess, well after the end of the acute emergency phase. Receiving little or no funding, Haitian actors

were all the more unable to compete with the highly standardized projects led by foreign NGOs or

for-profit contractors. On the other hand, international stakeholders relied partly on inadequate meth-

odologies which failed to take into account the complexity of the local context. Those core asymme-

tries between local and international actors can explain the weak sustainability of aid programs as

well as the escalation of a renewed political crisis that has been crippling the country reconstruction.

Far from building back better Haiti, transnational assistance had thus a limited impact in improving

the country’s ability to manage future disasters. Moreover, this kind of crisis management routinized

foreign-led emergency mechanisms while diluting accountability and responsibility within a complex

network of actors whose coordination remains an ongoing and disputed challenge. This case study

underlines how the dynamics of disaster and vulnerability management overstep the crisis itself since

they are deeply intertwined with long-term processes of state-building and governance, especially in

the case of fragile States.

2

Keywords

Natural Hazards and Disasters Management; Complex Emergencies in Fragile States; Humanitarian

Aid; Build Back Better and Reconstruction; Accountability

MEETING FORMAT*






Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

X Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech


Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals




X Human, organizational and societal factors


Systemic approaches



applications

X History and learning from major accidents and disasters


dents and disasters


4



X Compound/cascading disasters (simultaneous and/or co-



decision-making


agement

X Development and disasters

X Build Back Better (than Before)



Complex systems

Complexity Modeling











Ethics.

Gender

X Responsibility

X Governance, citizen participation and deliberation



and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models



Model-based approach



plementation









Presents new data



Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied


Review

Perspective



An Empirically Estimation of Lifeline Resilience Factors

Evidence from Business Recovery Process after the 2011 Great Japan Earthquake

HUAN LIU 1, 2 HIROKAZU TATANO1, 2 YOSHIO KAJITANI3

1 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

2 Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

3 Faculty of Engineering, Kagawa University, Japan

Email: [email protected]; [email protected];

[email protected]

Abstract

In this research, the remaining production capacity under lifeline disruptions after a disaster, which

is called lifeline resilience factor, is estimated in different business sectors. Recent studies have

provided reference results related to the resilience factors of industry under lifeline disruptions. How-

ever, those results are survey-orientation or experts-opinion-based estimation due to lack of real

data. In this research, the estimation function of lifeline resilience factors is established and then

implemented to the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake case study, which is post-disaster-based

data analysis. In addition, a comparison study between manufacturing and non-manufacturing sec-

tors is conducted because of the various resiliency and vulnerability in different sectors. Results have

attached different lifeline importance to different sectors, among which electricity ranked in the first

place both in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector. This significance of this research is ap-

plied a post-disaster business recovery case study for the lifeline resilience factors estimation for the

first time.

Keywords

Business recovery; Lifeline resilience factors; The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake; Empirical

case analysis

MEETING FORMAT*



X Young Scientist Poster Presentation


Young Scientist Oral Presentation

Symposia

Roundtable




2

AREAS*

Natural hazards

X Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech


Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals






Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters






3

X Connecting observed data and disaster risk management

decision-making


agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling











Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility




and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

Engineering Models



4




plementation









Presents new data



Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied


Review

Perspective



Analyzing and understanding the flood risk to buildings using virtual reality

simulation

Vitalijs Terentjevs1, Ahmed Atef1, David Dristow1

1 The Cities & Infrastructure Systems Lab, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria,

Victoria, BC, Canada


Abstract

Decision making in integrated disaster risk management relies heavily on risk communication with

the involved parties. In general, providing more complete information regarding potential disaster

impacts and economic losses, risk communication can support analysis and decision making. This

proves difficult in the design of buildings due to traditions embedded into planning processes in the

architecture, engineering and construction (AEC) industry. These practices are characterized by a

large number of participants and a high amount of planning information stored in distributed, hetero-

geneous and partial models of buildings.

The overarching goal of this work is to provide a means to create unified model of buildings for risk

communication and analysis. This paper pursues this goal through three principal objectives: creation

of a platform for advanced simulation of building operations; demonstration of the value of advanced

analysis to clients; and provision of an accurate depiction and account of the effect of hazards on

facilities.

Pursuing the aforementioned objectives, we present a risk-informed simulation engine that produces

a visualization of possible risks and consequences for a small-scale system (single or a group of

buildings). The engine is an integrated system that incorporates the Building Information Model

(BIM); a network-based risk engine that calculates risks based on dependencies of building compo-

nents; a real-time three-dimensional (3D) engine; and agent-based models (ABM). These elements

are transferred into a Virtual Reality (VR) environment to allows for better communication of vulner-

abilities. The resulting model is designed to be applied to a multitude of risk scenarios and mitigation

measures.

The initial test is for flooding hazards. To make a physically accurate visual rendering of flood prop-

agation through confined spaces of a building, a grid-based method in a 3D matrix is employed.

Water volume control at each time step ensures model accuracy but still allows real-time fluid path

calculations and rendering. Collision detection is used to correctly propagate the flood waters around

solid objects. The final model is tested on a range of facilities.


2

Future work concerns presenting the simulation to: (1) risk analysis specialists to gather assessment

of changes in their risk perception and valuation of risk mitigation measures; and (2) other parties

involved in decision making, such as clients, in order to assess their awareness of potential risks to

the property before and after experiencing the VR simulation. This work should increase risk aware-

ness of decision makers and help make risk-informed decisions.

Keywords

Risk management, Building Information Models, Virtual Reality, Flooding simulation, Risk awareness

MEETING FORMAT*


✔ Regular Poster Presentation

✔ Young Scientist Poster Presentation

✔ Regular Oral Presentation

✔ Young Scientist Oral Presentation

Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

Seismic

✔ Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry

✔ New and emergent technologies

Transportation

✔ Natech

✔ Critical infrastructures

Cyber attacks

✔ Terrorism


temic risks


✔ Natech


✔ Critical infrastructures

TOPICS*




✔ Expertise and knowledge management

Weak signals





✔ Risk perception, communication and governance

Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters


4






decision-making

✔ Practical applications of Integrated Disaster Risk Man-

agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling

✔ System of Systems / Distributed Systems

✔ Critical Infrastructures



✔ Disaster impacts and economic loss estimation




✔ Decision aiding and decision analysis.

✔ Disaster risk communication

Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility



✔ Scientific evidence-based decision-making, modelling

and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining

✔ Disaster informatics, big data, etc.

Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models



✔ Model-based approach



plementation









Presents new data


✔ Presents a new model

Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied

✔ Theoretical and Applied

Review

Perspective



Integrated Sakurajima Volcanic Ash Fall Distribution under Climate Change

An Analysis based on JRA-55 Data using Neural Network

Haris Rahadianto1,2, Subhajyoti Samaddar 2, Hirokazu Tatano2

1 Department of Social Informatics, Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, Japan

2 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan


Abstract

This study investigates the confirmation of Sakurajima volcanic ash fall distribution for the whole area

of Japan using JRA-55 data for the latest 60 years (1958-2018). Mount Sakurajima, located in Ka-

goshima, Japan, is the most active volcano and has been erupting continuously from 1955 onward,

hampering not only the local resident who lived near the volcano, but also the other citizen in farther

area that have possibility to get indirect impact from the ash dispersal and/or obstructed economic

activities caused by that. The volcano has been erupting with a series of ash-rich vulcanian eruptions,

small to moderate-sized, short eruptive burst, with the latest ash dropping activities as of March 2019,

which started since May 2017. Based on its rich eruptive history, many researches have been con-

ducting prediction and analysis for the ash dispersion phenomena using several different methods

and model, such as PUFF Model, a volcanic ash plume tracking model, and wind data to estimate to

the thickness of ash distribution throughout the nation and its probability which already reach state-

of-the-art accuracy. However, such prediction can be disruptively changed by the uncertainty of ty-

phoon occurrences and changes in wind direction and force caused by climate change, which could

have brought very different outcome from the estimation result. Such dynamically changing of expo-

sures could result mismanagement of the impact to the people and environment. Therefore, it is

observed that there is a need to introduce a confirmation mechanism to validate the prediction result

on how the ash will be dispersed, which in here it will be utilizing JRA-55. JRA-55 is an atmospheric

data conducted by Japan Meteorological Agency based on the reanalysis of past data from 1958, as

one of its main objectives is to produce a comprehensive atmospheric dataset suitable for the studies

of multidecadal variability and climate change. The emission rate of the ash mass from the vent will

be estimated on empirical formula and numerical simulation, then added with the likelihood estima-

tion of the ash plume outspread to other location brought by unintended wind and/or typhoon, built

by neural network. Lastly, it will also be used to confirm the implemented policies regarding evacua-

tion order and required preparation for affected people.


2

Keywords

ash fall prediction confirmation, climate change, JRA-55, neural network

MEETING FORMAT*




x Regular Oral Presentation


Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

X Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech


Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks

X Climate change and its impact

Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals

X Early warning systems




X Risk perception, communication and governance

Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters


4






decision-making


agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling









X Decision aiding and decision analysis.


Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility




and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

X Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models


X Formal models / formal proofs




plementation









X Presents new data



Groundbreaking

X Assesses developments in the field, in one or more

countries




Theoretical

Applied


Review

Perspective



Buildings damages at small spatial scale for integrated seismic risk model-

ing in Beirut (Lebanon)

Seismic risk modeling

Rouba ISKANDAR1,2,3, Bilal AL-TFAILY1, Christelle SALAMEH1, Kamel ALLAW4, Cécile

CORNOU1, Elise BECK2, Julie DUGDALE3, Pierre-Yves BARD1, Bertrand GUILLIER1, Stéphane

CARTIER2, Jocelyne GERARD4, Jacques HARB5

1 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, IRD, IFSTTAR. ISTerre, 38000 Grenoble,

France

2 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Science Po Grenoble, PACTE, 38000 Grenoble, France

3 Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP*, LIG, 38000 Grenoble, France

4 Univ. Saint-Joseph, Département de Géographie, Beyrouth, Liban

5 Univ. Notre Dame, Département de Génie Civil et Environmental, Zouk Mosbeh, Liban


Abstract

Lebanon is moderate seismicity country that is crossed by Levant Fault, that has already generated

many destructive earthquakes. Recent geological and seismological studies outline that the Levant

fault, although relatively quiet for almost a thousand years now, has accumulated enough energy

to rupture in a near future and generate major M7+ earthquakes. Additionally, the high seismic

vulnerability of the Lebanese buildings due to the absence of mandatory seismic regulation until

2012, and the high level of urbanization, combined with a lack of adequate spatial planning and risk

prevention policies, make Lebanon one of the highest seismic risk country in the Mediterranean

region. The development of a risk index including the different components of risk: seismic hazard,

physical and social vulnerabilities as well as the impact of risk perception and the individual human

behavior, requires an estimation of the buildings damages at a very fine spatial scale (almost at the

building or building blocks scale). To achieve this goal, Artificial Neural Networks are adopted to

find relations that predict building damages from simple indicators describing the seismic solicita-

tion, the vibrational properties of soils and buildings as well as building typologies. Therefore, dam-

age are estimated using a large data set of synthetic accelerograms, soil profiles and elasto-plastic

oscillators. The soil behavior is considered non-linear and the buildings damages are estimated fol-

lowing the mechanical model proposed by Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi (2006). Once the damages

are computed, different combinations of input variables for the Neural Networks are tested to find

the model that gives the best damages prediction. The best results are obtained with the following

indicators: peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, soil and building resonance frequencies

and soil H/V peak amplitude. This approach is applied to the city of Beirut for which we have the

2

soil resonance frequency and H/V amplitude maps as well as the inventory of around 11000 build-

ings. The buildings stock is completed by extracting additional buildings from high-resolution Pleia-

des satellite images. Different plausible seismic scenarios are considered and damage maps at fine

spatial scale are generated in each case. These results are integrated in an agent-based model for

seismic risk in Beirut, that takes into account human behaviors and mobility during crisis. The final

goal is to propose a seismic risk index that quantitatively incorporates the social component of risk

as well as operational risk management tools tuned to the particularities of the local context.

Keywords

Seismic risk, integrated risk modeling, building damages, Neural Networks, Agent-based modeling,

risk indices, Beirut

MEETING FORMAT*






Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

x Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

Wildfire



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech


Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals






Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters






4

x Connecting observed data and disaster risk management

decision-making


agement





Complex systems

x Complexity Modeling





x Disaster impacts and economic loss estimation






Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility




and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

x Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

Engineering Models

x Numerical modelling & functional numerical modeling


5




plementation









Presents new data

x Presents new analysis


Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

x Applied

Theoretical and Applied

Review

Perspective



The crisis representation between heterogeneous stakeholders in avalanche

management

Aurélie PEILLON1, Sandrine CAROLY2, Yann LAURILLAU3, Didier RICHARD4

1 LIP, University Grenoble Alpes

2 PACTE, University Grenoble Alpes

3 LIG, University Grenoble Alpes

4 ISRTEA


Abstract

In this study, we tried to identify the representation that the actors involved in the avalanche issue

have of the "crisis". So we interviewed 13 actors in avalanche prevention and management in the

Northern French Alps: associations, high mountain police, mountain experts, local authorities,

mountain guides. It appears then that during an avalanche, whether one is victim, witness, first-aid

or operations manager, there are similar elements that tilt people into crisis:

- The size of the event: the size of the avalanche, the number of victims, the duration of the

period of time to find a person, the bad weather and the snow conditions which delay the

arrival of the helpers or which complicate the rescue. All the interviewees said the fact that

looking for a single person buried in an equipped and experienced group (practitioner or

rescuer) is not a crisis situation because it resolves "very quickly".

- The resources available, in terms of equipment and men, in relation to the event gravity. In

an avalanche that is more buried than survivor, the feeling of overcoming and therefore

crisis (source) will soon be felt. This is also the case for rescuers in case of over avalanche.

- The need for effective communication and reliable information about the event. For e.g.,

for rescuers, uncertainty about the number of burials is an additional stress factor.

- The lack of equipment and / or training of the victims complicates the rescue.

However, the representation that every stakeholder has of the crisis in the context of an avalanche,

also varies according to several elements:

- Depending on the level of responsibility. The more the respondent has responsibility in the

avalanche, the more it will be in a "state of alert" as soon as the snow falls. Example "for us

the avalanche is not a crisis, since we do not have to manage it".

- Depending on the level of the event. For example, the prefecture is involved only during a

very large event. The last time the Prefect took over the relief operations was during the

avalanche of Montroc in 1999.

It appears that the avalanche representation is "relative to a system of activity" as presented in the

literature (Rogalski, 2004). So, to improve avalanche management, we are going to help the stake-

holders to create a collective work (Caroly,2010).

2

Source:

Caroly, S. (2010). Activité collective et réélaboration des règles: des enjeux pour la santé au tra-vail. Document d'habilitation à diriger des recherches en ergonomie, Université de Bordeaux II. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00464801/fr/

Rogalski, J. (2004). 32. La gestion des crises. In P. Falzon, Ergonomie (1r éd., p. 531-544). https://doi.org/10.3917/puf.falzo.2004.01.0531

Keywords

Representation; Risk assessment; Dynamic situation

MEETING FORMAT*






Symposia

Roundtable

3

AREAS*

Natural hazards

Seismic

Flooding

Subsidence

Hurricanes

Landslides

Volcanic eruption

X Avalanche



Nuclear industry


Transportation

Natech


Cyber attacks

Terrorism


temic risks


Natech



TOPICS*





Weak signals





X Risk perception, communication and governance

Systemic approaches



applications



dents and disasters


4





X Connecting observed data and disaster risk management

decision-making


agement





Complex systems

Complexity Modeling











Ethics.

Gender

Responsibility




and analytics

Policy analysis





data mining


Deep learning

Neural networks

Experts systems

Text data mining

5

Engineering Models






plementation







X Demonstrates current theory or practice


Presents new data



Groundbreaking


countries




Theoretical

Applied

Theoretical and Applied

Review

X Perspective



Documents

Risk Management and Resilience Assessment of Protection ... · Natural hazards Seismic Flooding Subsidence Hurricanes X Landslides Volcanic eruption Wildfire Technological and manmade