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Seriousness of Outcome 10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance Overestimating Capability/Experience Familiarity with the Task Seriousness of Outcome Voluntary Actions and Being in Control Personal Experience with an Outcome Cost of Non-Compliance Confidence in the Equipment Confidence in Protection and Rescue Potential Profit & Gain from Actions Role Models Accepting Risk “How bad could it be?” When we believe that the outcome of our actions will not be serious, we are prepared to accept more risk. If we believe the outcome to be serious, risk tolerance goes down. This risk tolerance factor deals with the question ... “How bad could it be?” It is based on the premise that something could go wrong but we under estimate or discount how bad or serious the outcome could be. We may believe a ‘scratch’ or bruise could be the worst thing to happen where in fact it could actually be an amputation or broken bone.
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Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
Strategies for Understanding and AddressingStrategies for Understanding and Addressing
Risk ToleranceRisk Tolerance
Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome Factor # 3 Seriousness of the Outcome
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
“How bad could it be?”
When we believe that the outcome of our actions will not be serious, we are prepared to accept more risk. If we believe the outcome to be serious, risk tolerance goes down.
10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance10 Factors That Influence Risk Tolerance
1.1. Overestimating Capability/Experience Overestimating Capability/Experience
2.2. Familiarity with the TaskFamiliarity with the Task
3.3. Seriousness of OutcomeSeriousness of Outcome
4.4. Voluntary Actions and Being in ControlVoluntary Actions and Being in Control
5.5. Personal Experience with an OutcomePersonal Experience with an Outcome
6.6. Cost of Non-ComplianceCost of Non-Compliance
7.7. Confidence in the EquipmentConfidence in the Equipment
8.8. Confidence in Protection and RescueConfidence in Protection and Rescue
9.9. Potential Profit & Gain from ActionsPotential Profit & Gain from Actions
10.10. Role Models Accepting RiskRole Models Accepting Risk
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
The seriousness of the outcome from an action may be underestimated or understated due to:
• Having seen a negative outcome but the consequences were minimal:
- i.e. seen H2S leaks but nothing worst than a bad smell was experienced
- over pressured a vessel but nothing worse than a PSV releasing occurred
2. Using language and descriptors that trivialize the true nature of the risk:
- referring to a consequence as a ‘pinch’ when it is actually a ‘crush’
- referring to gas as ‘sweet’ when it is actually ‘explosive’.
Seriousness of the OutcomeSeriousness of the Outcome
‘‘Pinch’ or ‘Amputation’??Pinch’ or ‘Amputation’??
‘‘Low speed incident’ or ‘fatality’??Low speed incident’ or ‘fatality’??
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
Common language that discounts the Common language that discounts the seriousness of the outcome includes: seriousness of the outcome includes:
1.1. ‘‘Pinch Point’Pinch Point’- Is a ‘pinch’ the worst that could happen or is Is a ‘pinch’ the worst that could happen or is
it a ‘crush’ that will brake bones or result in it a ‘crush’ that will brake bones or result in an ‘amputation’an ‘amputation’
- Could this ‘pinch point’ result in a fatality?Could this ‘pinch point’ result in a fatality?
2.2. ‘‘Sweet Gas’Sweet Gas’- Is it really ‘sweet’ or should we refer to it as Is it really ‘sweet’ or should we refer to it as
‘explosive’ or ‘flammable’‘explosive’ or ‘flammable’
3.3. ‘‘Hot Water’Hot Water’ - - Is it just ‘hot’ like a Jacuzzi or hot tub Is it just ‘hot’ like a Jacuzzi or hot tub or is it ‘scalding’ hot like condensed steam?or is it ‘scalding’ hot like condensed steam?
Seriousness of the OutcomeSeriousness of the Outcome
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
1. Use incident communications and safety alerts to demonstrate the seriousness of the outcome:
2. Use language that more appropriately describes how serious the outcome could be:
- ‘crush’ instead of ‘pinch point’
- ‘industrial or scalding hot’ instead of just ‘hot’
- ‘explosive’ instead of ‘sweet gas’
- ‘death trap’ instead of ‘unguarded rotating equipment’
Seriousness of the OutcomeStrategies for addressing risk created by under estimating the seriousness of the outcome:
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
Exercise and Discussion onExercise and Discussion on
“ “Seriousness of the Outcome”Seriousness of the Outcome”
1.1. Ask the question for Ask the question for each of the pictured each of the pictured scenarios scenarios “How bad “How bad could it be?”could it be?”
2.2. Relay actual events Relay actual events similar to these similar to these shown where the shown where the outcomes have been outcomes have been extremely serious. extremely serious.
What are we going to do about these?What are we going to do about these?
Cable suddenly tightened andIP’s hand became trapped between cable and wench drum.
11 22
33 44
Imperial Oil Resources D.J.FennellD.J.Fennell
Stop and Think ... Stop and Think ...
How bad could it be ...How bad could it be ...
really, how bad?really, how bad?
