RISKS AND BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES FOR FUTURE GLOBAL FOOD DEMANDS

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph

IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03

RISKS AND BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES

FOR

FUTURE GLOBAL FOOD DEMANDS

Dr. Gerry Stephenson

Department of Environmental Biology

University of Guelph

Guelph, Ontario, Canada

[email protected]

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Class Percent US Dollars (billions)

Herbicides 44 15.40

Insecticides 29 10.15 & acaricides

Fungicides 21 7.35

Nematicides 6 2.10plant growth regulators

Total 100 35

APPROXIMATE WORLD MARKET FOR CHEMICAL PESTICIDES

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


West Europe28.0%

Latin America 7.0%

Rest of World 7.0%

East Europe &Former USSR 8.0%

US 25.0%Asia 25.0%

W ORLD PESTICIDE MARKET

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph

IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Insecticides Fungicides Herbicides

Pe

rcen

t o

f W

orl

d U

se50

20

10

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

PERCENT OF W ORLD USE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


North Americathousands of accidental poisonings each yearnumerous accidental deaths each year

World wide3 million reports of serious poisoning each year(how many are unreported?)220 thousand accidental deaths each yearincidence of health problems is 13 times higher in developing countrieschronic effects??

Donald J. Ecobicon, 1998

PESTICIDES CAN BE A RISK TO HUMAN HEALTH

(Particularly for pesticide applicators)

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


HEALTH RISKS WITH PESTICIDES

DEPEND ON

PESTICIDE and HUMAN TOXICITY EXPOSURE

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


More women are choosing research careers in agriculture

But this a poor illustration of how to dress when using a research sprayer

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Applicators of unregistered

pesticides in research

Should wear full protective clothing

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


In industrialized countries,

Most growers are trained and certified pesticide applicators

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Fortunately,

Mistakes and accidents like this are rare

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Advances in sprayer technology are reducing risks

For the applicator and for the environment

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Especially in landscape situations

How much protective clothing is required for safety?

HAND-HELD PESTICIDE SPRAYERS ARE STILL USED IN NORTH AMERICA

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Pesticides are commonly applied with hand held sprayers in

“Developing countries”

Notice the bare skin, especially the hands!

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


EXPOSURE PROBLEMS

Aren’t limited to hand held equipment

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


HEALTH RISKS WITH PESTICIDES ARE A PREVENTABLE PROBLEM

•Proper pesticide use rarely causes a health problem

•Problems can be prevented by the continued development of even safer pesticides

•Industrialized countries have effective regulatory, educational and training programs for applicators

•These programs are expensive to maintain and will be a challenge to implement in developing countries

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


PESTICIDES CAN BE AN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

Risk depends on

• volume of use

• persistence

• mobility

• non-target toxicity

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


EVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES

1960’s Today

Insecticides Herbicides

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


EVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES

Spray Drift

Early studies on 2,4-D drift

More recent studies on glyphosate or clomazone drift

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES

Early concerns about 2,4-D, atrazine, metolachlor

Less concern with new “low rate” pesticides

PESTICIDE CONTAMINATION OF WATER

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES

SOIL RESIDUE CARRY OVER PROBLEMS

Earlier studies with triazine herbicides

More recent concerns with sulfonylurea or imidazolinone herbicides

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


NEW LOW-RATE HERBICIDES (<100 g/ha)

•Are reducing environmental risks in general

•However, soil residue carry-over concerns

are environmental problems for the farmers

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ROTHAMSTEAD SOIL STUDY SHOWS EFFECTS OF PESTICIDES IN SOIL ARE REVERSIBLE

17 months after applying five pesticides per year for 20 years

• no detectable pesticide residues

• no differences in microbial activity

• no effect on barley yield, as indicator crop

Evans(IUPAC)1998

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM?

_________________________________________

Numbers

Chemical companies Very small

Growers Small

Consumers Large

Society Vast

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


First Sales Patent Expiry

Direction of current pressures

Years0 10 15 20 25

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

$10 6

TYPICAL CUMULATIVE DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW FOR A SUCCESSFUL

NEW PRODUCT

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES

-TO WHOM?

________________________________

Numbers


Growers Small

Consumers Large

Society Vast

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Growers expect a $4 return on each $1 spent on pesticides

Is this still true?

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


BANNING PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA

•Would reduce agricultural output by 30%

•At pesticide & commodity prices in 1997

•There would be a $3 to $4 return for each $1

spent on pesticides

Fernandez-Cornejo et.al., 1998

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Governments in a number of industrialized countries have set goals for reducing the use of pesticides in agriculture

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


FOOD SYSTEMS 2002 IN ONTARIO, CANADA

OBJECTIVES

•To reduce total Kg of pesticide use by 50% by the year 2002

•While maintaining agricultural productivity

METHODS

•Improved grower education, IPM and development of more alternatives

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


FOOD SYSTEMS 2002

Reduction in Kg of agricultural pesticides between 1983 and 1998

•For all agricultural crops 38%

•For maize (our largest crop) 48%

Reasons

•Better grower education, IPM, alternatives

•Shift to new “low-rate” pesticides

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


DT = dermal toxicityC = chronic toxicitySY = system icityF = fish toxicityL = leaching potentialR = surface loss potential

EIQ = ( c [(DT*5)(DT*P)] + (C *((S+P)/2)*SY) + (L) +

(F*R) + (D*((S+P)/2)*3) + (Z*P*3) + (B*P*5) )/3

D = bird toxicityS = soil half-lifeZ = bee toxicityB = beneficial arthropod

toxicityP = plant surface half-life

(Kovach et al., 1992).

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT QUOTIENT (E.I.Q)

Farm worker risk Consumer risk

Ecological risk

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


FOOD SYSTEMS 2002

Reduction in E.I.Q./ha between 1983 and1998

For all crops 34%

For corn(maize) 40%

The next survey is for this year, 2003

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph



-TO WHOM?

________________________________

Numbers


Growers Small

Consumers Large

Society Vast

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Year Pesticide CropPurchased Value

Econom ic benefit of pesticide use assum ing10% increase in yield 30% increase in yield

($ x 10 ) ($ x 10 ) (crop $ (Per $ (crop $ (per $ x 10 ) pesticide) pesticide)

1973 113.1 3.32 287.2

1978 70.8 1802.4 163.9 2.31 415.9 5.87

1983 133.7 2642.4 240.2 1.80 609.8 4.56

1988 146.1 2599.8 236.3 1.62 600.0 4.11

1993 176.1 2765.3 251.4 1.43 638.1 3.62

1998 194.0 1.27 746.3

6

6

6

6x 10 )

34.1 1244.4 8.42

231.9 3234.1 3.22

ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF PESTICIDE USEIN ONTARIO AGRICULTURE

All data are in Canadian Dollars

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph



-TO WHOM?

________________________________

Numbers


Growers Small

Consumers Large

Society Vast

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph



-TO WHOM?

________________________________

Numbers


Growers Small

Consumers Large

Society Vast

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


SOCIETAL BENEFITS MINUS COSTS OF PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA

•The annual use of $6.5 billion worth of pesticides

•Prevents $26 billion in crop losses due to pests

•About a $4 return per $1 spent on pesticides to the growers

Pimentel and Greiner, 1997

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


SOCIETAL BENEFITS MINUS COSTS OF PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA

•Estimated indirect costs of pesticide use is $8 billion per year (regulation, training, health & environmental losses)

•$26 billion in benefits/$14.5 billion in costs equals about a $2 return to society for each $1spent on pesticides

Pimentel and Greiner, 1997

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


AGRICULTURAL PESTICIDE USE

SAVES ENERGY

HUMAN ENERGY FOSSIL FUELS

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Nu

mb

er o

f p

eop

le f

ed b

y o

ne

farm

er

AGRICULTURAL EFFICIENCY IN RELATION TO ADVANCES IN W EED CONTROL

50

40

30

20

10

010,000B.C.handremoval

1

6,000B.C.hand tools

1.5

1,000B.C.anim alpower

3

1920A.D.tractorpower

8

16

1947A.D.chemicalcontrols

50

1985A.D.to presentday

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


PESTICIDES SAVE HUMAN ENERGYProportion of population involved in food production:

N. America 2% 1 in 50

Brazil 20% 1 in 5

Mexico 25% 1 in 4

World wide 45% 1 in 2

Kenya 70% 2 in 3*

*Mostly women and children.

African women spend half of their waking hours working in the fields

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ENERGY USE FOR GRAIN CORN (ZEA MAYS) PRODUCTION IN ONTARIO: 1975 VS. 1991

Energy Source Energy use (GJ/ha) % Change1975 1991 1975 vs. 1991

TillagePrimary 0.9 0.6 - 33.3Secondary 0.5 0.8 +62.5

Fertilizer mfg 14.4 8.3Herbicide mfg 1.8 0.8Herbicide appl 0.1 0.1 0.0Other 1.7 1.1 - 35.3Total 19.4 11.7

- 42.4- 55.6

- 39.7

(Swanton, Murphy, Hume & Clements, Ag Systems, 1996)

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


PESTICIDES REDUCE WORLD HUNGER

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ESTIMATED CONTRIBUTION OF CROP PROTECTION CHEMICALS TO WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION OF THE EIGHT

PRINCIPAL FOOD AND CASH CROPS (1990 vs 1965)

Oerke et. al., 1994

We harvest only 58% of the theoretical, world-wide yield

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Oerke, et. al., 1994

LOSSES DUE TO PESTS IN W ORLD MAIZE PRODUCTION BY REGION AND

OVERALL

Region % losses 1988-1990 due to Actual total Loss if NoDiseases Pests W eeds Loss Crop Protection

52.8

24.8

Africa 15.7 19.6 17.5 71.6Am ericas 9.7 12.3 13.3 35.4 57.9Asia 12.0 18.4 12.0 42.5 60.8Europe 6.4 9.1 9.3 51.9USSR 12.7 12.7 15.3 40.8 57.4Oceania 7.4 8.5 8.5 24.4 51.9

World 10.8 14.5 14.5 38.3 59.5

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


LOSSES DUE TO PESTS IN W ORLD W HEAT PRODUCTION BY REGION AND OVERALL


26.541.8

Africa 7.6 12.2 20.1 39.9 53.2Am ericas 13.6 10.4 11.0 35.0 49.7Asia 13.5 8.9 15.2 37.6 50.8Europe 9.5 7.6 9.4 52.7USSR 17.0 10.2 14.4 55.4Oceania 17.2 10.3 11.2 38.6 60.7

World 13.3 9.3 13.1 35.7 51.9


Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


LOSSES DUE TO PESTS IN W ORLD RICE PRODUCTION BY REGION AND OVERALL


Region % losses 1988-1990 due to Actual total Loss if NoDiseases Pests Weeds Loss Crop Protection

55.758.254.8

25.0

Africa 15.5 17.6 22.6 83.1Americas 22.3 14.6 21.4 86.4Asia 15.8 22.1 16.9 83.1Europe 9.3 13.0 13.7 36.1 74.5USSR 12.7 12.7 16.9 42.2 70.0Oceania 5.7 5.2 14.1 60.4

World 15.9 21.5 17.2 54.6 83.2

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


LOSSES DUE TO PESTS IN W ORLD SOYBEAN PRODUCTION BY REGION

AND OVERALL



42.8

20.2

Africa 14.0 12.7 16.1 70.1Am ericas 8.0 10.8 13.1 32.2 57.4Asia 14.5 13.3 11.8 39.5 64.9Europe 5.0 5.3 10.0 45.2USSR 13.0 10.4 13.0 36.4 58.2Oceania 13.2 8.8 10.6 32.7 59.2

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Year1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

(431)

(415)

(316)

(251)

(200)

(158)

(126)

(100)

Index 1961 + 100)(Log Scale)

TRENDS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES GROSS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

AND PRODUCTION CAPUT

K lassen (A C S ) 1995

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Mill

ion

Per

son

s

A frica (S . Sah)

S. A sia

N. East/ N . Africa

L. Am erica/ CaribbE. A sia

843

47

285

359

23

129

79/81

781

59

271

252

24

175

88/90

63740

202

7029

296

2010

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

941

54

497

42

94

69/71

254

NUMBERS (MILLIONS)OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRY REGIONS:

HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TO 2010

K lassen (A C S ) 1995

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


“MANY PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT

THE IMPACT OF

PESTICIDES ON THE ENVIRONMENT”

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


“MORE PEOPLE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT

THE IMPACT OF

AGRICULTURE ON THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT”

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


PESTICIDES HELP SAVE LAND

•Since 1960, world agricultural production has tripled on 6 million square miles of land

•We would need to find new land for agriculture equivalent to all the agricultural land in Brazil, EU and USA combined

Avery, 1997

•Advances in crop protection, breeding & fertility

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


“If agricultural pesticides had not been available since 1950, we would have already lost half of today’s forested land to food production”

Lester Brown, 2001

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


W O R LD PO PU LATIO N

TR EN D S

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Bill

ions

16

18

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mil

lio

ns

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. (September 17, 2003)

EXPECTED POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA, 1950-2050

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ions

Japan

North Korea

South Korea

Indonesia

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. (September 17, 2003)

EXPECTED POPULATION TRENDS IN OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES, 1950-2050

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


After 2050, will world population actually decline?

Or, will politicians encourage women to resume having three or more children to sustain a growth economy?

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


FOR MOST OF THIS 21ST CENTURY

•50% more people will need food (9 vs 6 billion)

•With industrialization, they may have 50% more buying power

•There will be a need for twice as much foodThompson,1998

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


IF DIETARY TRENDS IN JAPAN ARE A GOOD EXAMPLE

PEOPLE WILL CONSUME

•more soybeans,vegetables, fruits

•more dairy products

•more animal protein

•less rice, wheat, maize, sorghum

These trends will require much higher yields or more land for agriculture

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


HOW MUCH AGRICULTURAL LAND WILL THERE BE?

We may be able to increase agricultural land about 10% (S. America etc.)

However,

We may increase the amount of land used to produce fuel, fiber and other non-food crops

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


HOW CAN WE DOUBLE “NET” YIELDS OF FOOD CROPS AGAIN ON ABOUT THE SAME LAND AREA?

Oerke et. al.,

Can we achieve 90% instead of 60% of our theoretical yield?

(harvest 20% more and prevent 10% losses in storage)

Better pest controlthroughoutthe world?

50% MORE FOOD?

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


We need advances and better application of both,

INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENTand

CROP GENETICS

TO DOUBLE WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION

BY 2050

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


“Technically, this may be possible”

“Psychologically, it may be impossible”

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


THE MENTAL AFFLUENCE TRAP

“People’s willingness to accept change is inversely proportional to their affluence”

“This eventually leads to mental immobility for the affluent, who become critical of the new technology that was originally responsible for their affluence.”

“Conversely, the less affluent will readily accept change in an effort to improve their prosperity.”

Hans Mohr, Univ. Freiburg, 1990

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


THEREFOREPeople in developing countries will want to increase pesticide use to improve their standard of living

People in industrialized countries will want to decrease pesticide use and purchase more organic food to preserve their health and prosperity

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WANT TO PRODUCE MORE FOOD FOR THEMSELVES AND HAVE SOME TO SELL TO OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL

Developing countries will increase pesticide use

We must help them develop suitable regulations and training programs to prevent adverse health effects and environmental problems

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


CONCLUDING COMMENTS

I favor a 100% reduction in pesticide use when they aren’t needed to increase crop yields.

Is prohibiting “needed pesticide” use, morally correct in view of world food needs?”

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ORGANIC FARMING?

I would hate to see a large shift to organic farming in industrialized countries in an attempt by farmers to make more money by catering to the more affluent

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


A GOAL FOR THIS 21st CENTURY

TO PREVENT HUMAN HUNGER WITHOUT IRREVERSIBLE HARM TO

THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


WORLD POPULATION

If world population peaks at 9 billion in 2050

and

declines to <6 billion during the 22nd century

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Future generations may have the choice between organic farming or reducing land for agriculture

It would be very selfish and narrow-minded to think that we have that choice today!

BEYOND 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


THANK YOU

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


The text of this talk was recently published as Chapter 15, in:

ACS Symposium Series 853,

American Chemical Society, Washington D.C., 2003

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


IM PACT OF CROP PROTECTION ON THE W ORLD PRODUCTION OF EIGHT PRINCIPAL FOOD AND CASH CROPS (1988-90)

Eight Actual Theoreticalm ajor w ith with no yields yield world no crop w ith crop increase crops losses protection protection w ith crop (tonnes x 1000) (tonnes x 1000) (% )

M ean increase 119

Theoretical crop yields

Rice 1087 184 520 182W heat 902 286 595 108Barley 253 134 180 34Maize 211 85 129 52Potatoes 466 121 275 127Soybeans 157 65 107 65Cotton 87 14 54 285Coffee 10 3 6 100

Developed from data by Oerke et. al., 1994

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


ENERGY USE FOR W EED MANAGEMENT IN SOYBEAN W ITH VARYING HERBICIDE INPUTS

Input Source Herbicide input (MJ/ha) systemsLow Minimum

Glyphosate 517 5172,4-D 176 176Imazethepyr 14 -Inter-row cultivation - 324 324Rotary hoeing - - 131

Totals 1031 1148

High

517176 33

726

(Swanton, Murphy, Hume & Clements, Ag Systems, 1996)

Years1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


FOR THE 10 MAJOR AGRICULTURAL STATES IN THE USA

Economic benefits of pesticide use to growers

declined

from $8 per $1 spent on pesticides in 1949 to

$4 per $1spent on pesticides in 1991

Teague and Brorsen, 1995

G.R.S. Univ. Guelph


Documents

RISKS AND BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES FOR FUTURE GLOBAL FOOD DEMANDS