ROAD ACCIDENTS COSTING IN INDIAtripp.iitd.ernet.in/assets/newsimage/SBPaul_Road... · The Road Accidents impose a huge social and economic cost in terms of untimely deaths, injuries,

12-12-2019

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S

Indian Institute of Technology - DelhiTransportation Research and Injury

Prevention Programme (TRIPP)

The presentation is based on a sponsored project by GoI

The results are preliminary. Please do not cite.

PROJECT CONSORTIUM PARTNERS

ROAD ACCIDENTS COSTING IN INDIA

Delhi Integrated Multi Modal Transit System Limited(Joint Venture of Govt. of NCT of Delhi and IDFC Foundation)

An ISO 9001, 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO 27001 & CMMI L3 Certified Company

International Course on Transportation Planning and Safety

05-12 December 2019, IIT Delhi

12 December 2019, IIT Delhi

Sourabh B. Paul, IIT Delhi

Socio- Economic cost of Road Accidents in INDIA

OBJECTIVES

To develop a Common Framework that work as a tool to estimate the cost of Road Traffic

Accidents

To Undertake Estimation of Socio-Economic Costs of Road Accidents in-terms of various

cost parameters

To provide estimation of cost for each category of road traffic injuries and fatalities

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SOME POLICY QUESTION• MICRO:

• Households – What impact does road accident have on household income?, How mush do people pay for medical and other expenses due to accident related death and injury?

• Firm – What are the impacts of accidents on firm's productivity, profits, and operating costs?

• Government – What proportion of government expenditure could have been saved and utilised in alternatives? What impact do accidents have on the government workforce and government’s efficiency to deliver public services?

• MACRO:

• Society– What impact do road accidents have on GDP and its rate of growth? Social welfare? How much does society pay for medical and other expenses?

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The Road Accidents impose a huge social and economic cost in terms of

untimely deaths, injuries, disabilities and loss of potential income

1,50,785 persons were killed and 4,94,624 people were injured in 2016 in the

Country (MoRTH 2016).

Estimates by : Global Burden Disease : 2,54,000

Estimates by World Health Organization: 2,99,100

THE CONTEXT

leading cause of DEATH

leading cause of overall HEALTH LOSS.

4th Leading cause of death for the YOUNG ADULTS between 15-49 years

8th9th

(from Public Health Foundation of India-Million Death Study run by the Registrar General of India

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PREVIOUS ACCIDENT COST STUDIES IN INDIA

RUCS included only a section on Road Accident costs, sponsored by World Bank (1982) :

• The First major Road User Cost Study was published in 1982 based on Delhi city data.

• The costs included were: medical expenses, legal fees, property damage, insurance costs, and loss of

output due to death. The study estimated the cost of the road accidents about 0.29% of GDP (Approx. Rs

3000 millions, 1978 prices).

Overseas Road Note 10, Costing Road accidents in developing countries, TRL (1995) :

• Covered FOUR countries including India.

• Advised a workable method that could be used for accident costing for developing countries.

Accident Cost Study sponsored by MOST, Research Scheme R-79 (2000):

• Used Gross Output Approach. Data coverage includes Insurance data for 16 cities across India, and one

government hospital data. The study estimates economic cost of road accidents in India about 0.69 % of

GDP( about Rs 69,502 million rupees 1996 prices).

Working Group Estimates as part of Sundar Committee:

• Estimates about 3% of the country GDP i.e about Rs 55,000 Crores (year 2000 prices)5


PREVIOUS ACCIDENT COST STUDIES IN INDIA – COMPARISIONType of accident Estimated Average Costs (in Rupees) for the year of study

1968 study for

Delhi

1978 study for

Madras city

1978 Road user

cost study for India

1999 Evaluation of

road accident costs

for India

Fatal 27,805 129,987 49,804 535,489

Serious injury 7,470 35,447 29,510 106,959 – 242736*

Minor injury 870 10,503 321 18,855

Property damage 1,155 10,033 - -

Damage to buses - - 5,467 47,100

Damage to trucks - - 6,111 48,700

Damage to cars - 1,200 16,200

Damage to 2-wheelers - - 300 4,100

Total cost as per cent of GDP 0.29% 0.69%6

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• Victims data was collected only from one government hospital (RML Delhi),

which is highly subsidised

• Accident Ratios are highly underestimated

• The “Life Expectancy” of Indians was assumed to be 54 years in RUCS

study, and 62 in TCS study . This is a serious technical error, as this was the

life expectancy at birth at that time.

• The actual cost of permanent disability, pain and grief was not included or

assumed certain percentage.

LIMITATIONS OF THE PAST STUDIES

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• Covers both Government and Private hospitals, hence benefits from assessing the

component of amount of subsidy by the government in treating accident victims.

• Covers both Urban and Rural regions, covering all major states

• Ratios for Fatality: (Serious injury: Minor injury) was highly underestimated. This

study attempts to estimate the realistic ratios.

• As against constant life expectancy, this study will use Life Expectancy Charts for

different age groups, such that realistic estimate of loss productivity is estimated.

• Judgements passed by Motor Vehicle Claim Tribunal will be used to account for

amount of Pain and Grief instead of fixed percent assumed in the previous studies.

• Both government and private insurance company’s data would be used for the

estimation of the accident costs.

GAPS TO BE ADDRESSED IN THE PRESENT STUDY

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DIRECT AND INDIRECT COST

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• Direct cost arises directly from the accidents – requires actual payment by

individuals or institutions. Further divided into medical and non-medical

• Indirect cost refers to lost resources and opportunities resulting from the

accidents. Further divided into tangible and intangible

• Tend to focus on tangible costs such as reduced productivity or output by the

victim

• Usually calculated from average gross earnings and the amount of work time

lost

Three main approaches of measuring indirect cost – human capital, friction-

cost and willingness-to-pay


APPROACHES

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• Direct cost – calculated by multiplying the number of accidents (different injury

types) in a given period by unit cost (Incidence- vs prevalence-based

estimates).

• Indirect cost – three approaches

Human capital approach - measures the value of time lost due to absence

from work or reduced productivity.

Friction-cost approach – measures the cost of replacing those killed or

temporarily or permanently disabled with other existing workers. Here cost

is due to labour market frictions.

Willingness-to-pay approach – measures the total sum what individuals are

willing to pay to reduce the risk of becoming a victim

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STUDY APPROACH

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Victim related costs Property damage costs Administrative Costs

Medical cost

Lost Labour cost

Funeral cost

Pain Grief & Suffering cost

• Vehicle Damage cost

• Infrastructure Damage cost

• Vehicle Lost Productivity

• Police Investigation cost

• Legal cost

• Insurance Administration cost

• Court Administration cost

The ‘Human Capital Approach' estimates the loss to society caused by a traffic accident. Considers the Lost Productivity of the victim and care giver.


STUDY APPROACH – Accident Cost Data Components

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STUDY APPROACH – Accident Cost Data Components

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SAMPLING STRATEGY- GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE & DATA SOURCES

• 20 State Capitals

• Covering All Types of Socio-economic regions.

Pan India Coverage

• Two trauma centres identified per city

• Urban and sub-urban region

• 250 samples in each city, Total about 5000 samples

• 1-2 Private Hospitals per city

• Post discharge Follow-up with victims/families

• Hospital Administrative expenses, Direct and indirect costs

Sampling Strategy for Hospitals

• Interviews with various stakeholders such ULB’s, PWD,

Motor Vehicle Service Centres, Claim Tribunals, Traffic

Police and Insurance Companies

Sampling Strategy for Secondary

Data Collection

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DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- HOSPITAL SELECTION

Identified Trauma Centers in cities

TRAUMA CENTRES

• One Trauma centres in each Urban area

• One Trauma centre in Sub-urban area

• Total 38 Trauma centres in 19 cities

PRIVATEHOSPITALS

• 1-2 Private hospitals each city,

• Information of patients through data records, OPD’s

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DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- SOURCES & DATA ELEMENTS

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DATA COLELCTION STRATEGY- SOURCES & DATA ELEMENTS

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Questionnaire Design

Total 16 Questionnaires Designed

Pilot Testing done for Delhi Hospital (AIIMS)

Refined the Questionnaires Based on Pilot Tests

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SAMPLE

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Data Sample

Accident Victim data Collection. 54 Hospital from 20 Cities, 6610 samples

Victim Follow-up Survey Calls made 6610 Responses obtained 4015

FIR Data 6412 FIRs

Vehicle Damage Data 3693 vehicles from 4 service centre and 30 workshops, 5 bus organisations. Vehicle Insurance claims for accidental damages from Insurance Information Bureau (IIB) published report.

Administrative Data Interactions with traffic police (Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Shimla, and Bhopal) Interactions with officials of insurance companies and lawyers.


COST DISAGGREGATION FRAMEWORK

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Identify the value by Road User type

Accident Severity Type Road User Type Cost Element Type

• Fatal Accident

• Minor Injury Accident

• Pedestrian

• Cyclist

• 2Wheeler Rider/ Pillion Rider

• Car and Taxi occupant

• Bus Passenger

• Auto rickshaw passenger/Driver

• Goods Vehicle Occupant

• Victim Related Costs

• Accident Administration Costs

• Property Damage Costs

• Grievous Injury Accident(Serious +Major Injury)

Identify the economic value per accident by Severity Type

Identify the type of cost element

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FINDINGSVictim Hospital Data Analysis

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Victim Sample Coverage

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11%

24%

27%

17%

15%

6%

Accident Victim by Age Group(Total Samples- 5956)

0 to 18

18 to 25

25 to 35

35 to 45

45 to 60

> than 60

6%

64%

30%

Accident Victims by Severity of Injury(N=5956) Minor

Grievous

Fatal

17%

83%

Gender Distribution (N= 5956)

Female

Male

0.62%

1%

2%

4%

6%

12%

15%

60%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Other

Bus

Truck

Auto-rickshaw/E-Rickshaw

Bicycle/Rickshaw

Car/SUV/Taxi

Pedestrian

Motorised Two Wheeler

Victim Travel mode by Accidents ( N= 5956)

Fatal

Grievous Injury

Minor Injury

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VICTIM MEDICAL COSTS

23Source: Victim Primary & Follow Up Data

Medical Cost-Government Hospitals Medical Cost-Private Hospitals

• Grievous Injury CaseCost of Private Hospital is approx. 3 times Government Hospital Cost

SeverityDuring

HospitalisationDuring Post

Hospitalisation

Out of pocket

expenses

Total Medical Cost

Fatal 49,142 - 3,384 52,526

Grievous Injury 52,625 36,589 6,136 95,350

Minor Injury2,353 2,272 1,309 5,933

SeverityDuring

Hospitalisation

During Post

Hospitalisation

Out of

pocket

expenses

Total

Medical

Cost

Fatal2,61,060 - 4,553 2,65,613

Grievous Injury1,87,925 89,935 8,567 2,86,427

Minor Injury6,327 3,998 1,287 11,612


VICTIM LOST OUTPUT ESTIMATION

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A. Lost Days for Fatal , Grievous & Minor.

B. Victim Age for Fatal

C. Per capita income (CSO)

D. Life Expectancy at different age(Census of India)

VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR INJURIES = A x C

VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR FATALITIES = D f(B) x C

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VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT FOR INJURIES

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LOC- Injury (INR) Grievous Minor

A Total Lost Days 120 16C Per Capita Income (FY2018-19 @ current prices) 391 391

( A) x (C) Lost Output (INR) per Casualties46,920 6,256

Source: Victim Primary & Follow Up Data

Victim Lost Days

Lost Output Costs (LOC)- Injury Case

Severity Hospitalisation

Post Hospitalisation/

Convalescence/ Recovery

period

Total Care Giver Lost

DaysTotal Lost Days

Fatal 5 - 6 11

Grievous 13 73 34 120

Minor 1 10 5 16


VALUE OF LOST FUTURE OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES

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Value of Lost Output Costs for Fatal Casualty:

Scenario-1: Lost future years based on Life expectancy and per Capita GDP

Scenario-2: Lost Future years based on work years and per capita labour force income

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Scenario-1:

Victim Lost Future

Output based on Life

Expectancy and per

Capita Income

Step 1

• Calculate age group wise number of people killed in accidents

Step 2

• Use the life expectancy tables and calculate the total lost years in each age group

Step 3

• Use the per capita GDP growth rate (g) and Discount rate (i) to calculate the future incomes in each age group at present values

Step 4

• Calculate the total lost future output by multiplying number of persons killed with the respective lost income in each age group

Step 5

• Calculate the Lost Future Output by dividing the total lost output by the total persons killed



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Age Group-wise Life

Expectancy by Residence

in India (2013-2017)

Lost Future Output for

remaining life( discounted)

current 2018-19 prices

No. of People

Killed ( MoRTH

2018-19)

Total Lost

Future output

(Lakhs)

Age group wise %age

People Killed

Age-Interval No. Years INR Lakhs INR Lakhs

0-1 69.00 134.41 740 99,417 0.50%

29.50%

1-5 70.80 139.11 1479 2,05,792 1.00%

5-10 67.30 130.04 2219 2,88,553 1.50%

10-15 62.50 118.04 3698 4,36,530 2.50%

15-20 57.70 106.52 15976 17,01,873 10.80%

20-25 53.00 95.71 19527 18,68,828 13.20%

25-30 48.30 85.33 19675 16,78,762 13.30%

48.90%

30-35 43.60 75.39 19823 14,94,496 13.40%

35-40 39.00 65.99 16568 10,93,364 11.20%

40-45 34.50 57.19 16272 9,30,565 11.00%

45-50 30.10 48.90 11834 5,78,724 8.00%

15.20%

50-55 25.80 41.11 7397 3,04,054 5.00%

55-60 21.90 34.29 3254 1,11,582 2.20%

60-65 18.10 27.86 2663 74,180 1.80%

6.40%

65-70 14.70 21.16 2367 50,077 1.60%

70-75 11.50 17.19 2219 38,142 1.50%

75-80 8.80 13.00 1923 24,995 1.30%

80-85 6.30 9.20 148 1,362 0.10%

85+ 4.50 6.52 148 965 0.10%

147930 1,09,82,260

Average Lost Output per Fatality is INR 74,23,957.

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VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES

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Scenario-2:

Victim Lost Future

years Based on

Work years and per

Capita Labour Force

Income

Step 1

• Calculate age group wise number of people killed in accidents

Step 2

• Calculate the total lost years in each age group by considering legal age for working i.e age band between 15 years and 65 years.

Step 3

• Calculate the per capita workforce income (GDP/total work force) for the past years and calculate the growth rate

Step 4

• Use the per capita workforce income growth rate (r) and Discount rate (i) to calculate the future incomes in each age group, considering the remaining work life years.

Step 5

• Calculate the Lost Future Output by dividing the total lost output by the total persons killed including persons below age 15 as well as above age 65


VALUE OF LOST OUTPUT (LFO) FOR FATALITIES

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Age Group-wise Working

Life Expectancy

Lost Future Output

for remaining life(

discounted)

current 2018-19

prices

No. of People

Killed ( MoRTH

2018-19)

Total Lost Future

output (Lakhs)

Age group wise %age

People Killed

Age-

Interval

No. of

YearsINR Lakhs INR Lakhs

0-1 50.00 174.98 740 1,29,424 0.50%

29.50%

1-5 50.00 174.98 1479 2,58,849 1.00%

5-10 50.00 169.76 2219 3,76,681 1.50%

10-15 50.00 164.69 3698 6,09,060 2.50%

15-20 50.00 160.74 15976 25,68,109 10.80%

20-25 45.00 142.39 19527 27,80,412 13.20%

25-30 40.00 124.58 19675 24,51,154 13.30%

48.90%

30-35 35.00 107.31 19823 21,27,165 13.40%

35-40 30.00 90.55 16568 15,00,273 11.20%

40-45 25.00 74.29 16272 12,08,925 11.00%

45-50 20.00 58.52 11834 6,92,557 8.00%

15.20%

50-55 15.00 43.22 7397 3,19,668 5.00%

55-60 10.00 28.37 3254 92,341 2.20%

60-65 5.00 13.97 2663 37,204 1.80%

6.40%

65-70 0.00 0.00 2367 - 1.60%

70-75 0.00 0.00 2219 - 1.50%

75-80 0.00 0.00 1923 - 1.30%

80-85 0.00 0.00 148 - 0.10%

85+ 0.00 0.00 148 - 0.10%

147930 1,51,51,823

Average Lost Output per Fatality is INR 102,42,563.

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OTHER VICTIM RELATED COSTS

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Motor Accident Claim Tribunal (MACT) judgments award average INR 25,000

Typically, lawyers charge 5% to 10% of the compensation amount. Based on average compensations, legal

costs used are:

Casualty Type Average Legal Charges (Rs)

Fatal case1,50,000

Grievous Injury Case50,000

Source: Indian Kanoon MACT Judgements

Funeral Costs

Legal Costs


Costs Towards Pain, Grief & Suffering

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Pain, Grief and Sufferings for the fatal accident case is calculated as %age of Lost Future Output

Pain and sufferings for the grievous injury case varies case to case and the average cost is calculated on the basis of the MACT judgements for different types of injury cases.

Source: Indian Kanoon MACT Judgements

20% of Lost Output of the Victim

Average compensation awarded for Grievous Injury cases by MACT Judgements

INR 1,06,000

Fatality Case

Grievous Injury Case

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Property Damage Costs Analysis• Vehicle Damage

• Civil Property Damage

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Vehicle Category-wise Average Accident Repair Costs

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S.No. Vehicle Category

Vehicle Damage Repair Cost Data Sources All Sources

As per IIB Motor

Annual Report

2016-17

Service Centre

Local

Workshops/Repa

ir Centres

Telephonic

Follow-up

Average Repair

Cost (INR)

Avg. Repair Cost Avg. Repair Cost Avg. Repair CostAvg. Repair

Cost

Average Repair

Cost (INR)

1Motorised Two

Wheeler7,189 8,166 7,386 8,466 7,802

2Car/SUV/ Van/

Taxi27,495 29,699 31,111 32,179 30,121

3 Auto Rickshaw - - 8,586 - 8,586

4 Buses 35,845 - 54,262 - 45,054

5 Truck 82,146 - 1,35,156 79,889 99,064

6 Pedal Cycle - - 812 - 812 Source: Data Collected Through Service centres, Local Workshop , follow-up Survey, IIB Motor Annual Report

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Vehicle Property Damage Costs Per Crash

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Vehicle Type

Average Vehicles Involved per Crash

Unit Vehicle Damage Costs

Average All

Motorised Two Wheeler0.618 7,802 4,825

Auto-Rickshaws0.109 8,586 933

Car/SUV/ Van/ Taxi0.588 30,121 17,706

Buses0.053 45,054 2,399

Trucks/ Freight vehicles0.095 99,064 9,455

Non-Motorised vehicles( Cycle/ TriCycle)0.058 812 47

1.522 35,365

Vehicle Property Damage Costs Per Crash = INR 35,365


SUMMARY ROPERTY DAMAGE COSTs

36Source: FIR Collected Through Various Cities

Property Damage CostsTotal Costs

(INR)

Average Vehicle Damage Cost per Crash 35,365

Average Civil Infrastructure Damage Cost 365

Average Property Damage Cost per Crash 35,730

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Administration Costs Average Police Administration Per Crash

Average Insurance Claim Administration per Crash

Court Administration Cost per Crash

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POLICE ADMINISTRATION COSTS

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S.No.

Per Accident

Staff Efforts ( Time Efforts)Hourly Staff

Cost (INR)

Cost Estimate

(INR)

1 ACP 1 398 398

2 Police Inspector 18 341 6,138

3 Police Sub Inspector 38 284 10,792

4 ASI/Head Constable 16 227 3,632

5 PCR Vehicle Driver 6 142 852

6 PCR Operator 15 142 2,130

7 Body Vehicle Driver 1 142 142

Total Cost (INR) 24,084

Source: Primary Data collected in Cities ,Interview with police officers, insurance officer, STU Officers and lawyers

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INSURANCE ADMINISTRATION COST

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S.No.

Per Insurance Claim Process


Cost

Cost Estimate

(INR)

1 Inspection Surveyor 9 170 1,530

2 Officer Assistant 1 170 170

3 Officer 1 284 170

4 Manager 1 511 170

5 Accounts Officer 1 341 170

6 File Keeper 1 227 170

Average Insurance Administration cost per claim (INR) 2,380



COURT ADMINISTRATION COST

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S.No.

Per MLC Accident


Cost

Cost Estimate

(INR)

1 Judge 5 966 4,830

2 Reader 5 287 1,435

3 Ahlmad (File Keeper) 6 227 1,362

4 Steno 5 287 1,435

Average Court Administration costs per MLC case (INR) 9,062


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SUMMARY ADMINISTRATION COSTS

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Administration Costs Total Cost (INR)

Average Police Administration Per Crash 24,084

Average Insurance Claim Administration per Crash 1,190

Court Administration Cost per Crash 1,812

Average Administration Cost per Crash 27,086



FIR Analysis Findings

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Type of Victims Involved in Fatal Crashes in Select cities

43

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Chandigarh Dehradun Hyderabad Delhi Shimla Patna Vizag Raipur

Unknown

Non-Motorized Vehicle

Trucks, Tempo, Tractors

Buses

Cars, Jeep, Taxi, SUV

Three Wheelers/Auto-RickshawsTwo Wheelers

Pedestrian


Type of Victims Involved in Fatal Crashes

44

42.4%

38.1%

2.4%

8.4%

0.9%2.9%

5.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

% C

ou

nt

Percentage of Fatal

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Summary Costs

45


Grievous Injury Minor InjuryFatality

Summary Costs- Victim Related Costs

46

Lost Output Costs 74,23,957 46,921 6,256

Medical costs 21,552 2,86,427 11,612

Pain, Grief and Suffering 14,84,791 1,06,500 63

Other Costs 70,000 5,000 -

Total Costs 90,00,300 4,44,848 17,931

Lost Output Costs 102,42,563 90,760 12,858

Medical costs 21,552 2,86,427 11,612

Pain, Grief and Suffering 20,48,513 1,06,500 130

Other Costs 70,000 5,000 -

Total Costs 123,82,627 4,88,687 24,598

Scenario-2

Scenario-1

Summary Victim Related Costs

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Summary Costs- Property Damage and Administrative Costs

47

Administrative Cost Per Crash Total Costs (INR)

Property Damage Costs Per Crash 35,730

Administrative Cost Per Crash 27,086

Summary Property Damage & Administrative Costs per Crash


48

Documents

ROAD ACCIDENTS COSTING IN INDIAtripp.iitd.ernet.in/assets/newsimage/SBPaul_Road... · The Road Accidents impose a huge social and economic cost in terms of untimely deaths, injuries,