Road to War Bold Alligator Overall Classification:
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
Slide 2
US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Agenda
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Introduction Orientation Political
Dynamics Military Dynamics VEO Dynamics Social Influences External
Influence Crisis Assessment Alternative Futures
Slide 3
Introduction UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
Slide 4
Recent Events MAY 2014: Anti-government demonstration 5 NGO
sponsored IDP camps established 1 NGO sponsored refugee camp in Ft.
Bragg Gernatian rhetoric claims ethnic persecution Platoon-sized
border incursions from Garnet into Amber Minor violence escalates
as the government ignores the publics demands
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 2 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 1
Slide 5
Recent Events JUN 2014: Ji Stern Militia (JM) in Western
Amberland involved in PHARM rearm-refit effort SOF conducts
operations in Amberland, Amber, Pyrope and Mica Fishing vessels
robbed along Amberland coastline Sanitation workers go on strike
NGO medical supplies hijacked from IDP camps Smalls arms seized by
government forces in a Jacksonville warehouse
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 2 6 1
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Recent Events JUL 2014: PHARM sponsored riots Anti-government
groups begin fighting amongst themselves PHARM seizes petroleum
infrastructure 3 Bomb explosions outside government facilities in
Jacksonville Mass demonstration occurs in Amberland announcing
Government policy Deputy Mayor of Wilmington assassinated Foreign
investors withdraw workers and money from Amberland
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 26 1 7 7
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Recent Events 1-10 AUG 2014: Naval Expeditionary Force (NEF)
begins to conduct Theater Security Cooperation UN compound under
imminent unconventional attack Government request coalition aid to
reduce uprising Coalition presence in the Treasure Coast denounced
Government announces rationing of fuel Food riot in IDP camps at
Fort Bragg Sporting events cancelled due to security concerns
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 2 6 7 7
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Recent Events 21-27 AUG 2014: Amberland requests US assistance
NEF conducts MPF off-load MEU conducts Long Range Raid in Beaufort
targeting HVI NEF concludes MPF off-load MEU conducts TLAM/TACAIR
strike on PIA weapons cache and assembly area MEU conducts
reinforcement of Wilmington Oil pump station MEU establishes FOB at
Wilmington Naval Base 2 to conduct FID/COIN UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL
USA, MNFA 1 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 2 6 1 7 7
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Orientation UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Area of Operations
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Historical Background
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Granted independence in
1949 Garnet received land in the Northern portion of Amber (North
Garnet) 2013, Lakeland Silence Movement began 2014, Spiritual
Leaders reached an agreement to form Republic of Pyrope Amber In
1960, The Republic of Amber formed Conflicts constantly reoccurring
In1993, United Nations established a multinational peacekeeping
force Transitional Affiliated National Government (TANG) created to
represent all ethnic factions in Amber, which later failed
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Historical Background
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Amberland Independent state formed
when internal fighting spread throughout Amber Four clans attempted
to create a religious government Immediately after secession, PHARM
took the role of governing forces of Amberland PHARM was later
removed from government
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Economic
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Estimated GDP at $145
billion Exports are estimated at $15.8 billion Imports are
estimated at $8.2 billion Major Trade partners Oil exports accounts
for 20% GDP Industrial manufacturing accounts for 15% Service
industry accounts for 35% of GDP Agriculture and mining accounts
for 35% of GDP Amber Estimated GDP at $15 billion since 1992 Stock
rearing accounts for 50% of GDP and 45% of export earnings
Petroleum accounts for 35% of GDP and 40% of export revenue
Manufacturing and Services is 15% of GDP Exports are estimated $9
billion annually Imports estimated at $8 billion annually
Neighboring countries imposed export band on Amber livestock
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Economic Cont.
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Estimated GDP at $750 million
Exports are hides, skins, coffee Imports are food, beverages,
chemicals, petroleum products, 11,330 barrels of oil per day
Several moderate sized coal mines and one oil refinery Industrial
manufacturing accounts for 15% of GDP Service industry accounts for
35% of GDP Agriculture Limited rainfall and recent droughts have
made crop production difficult Rurally herding goats, sheep, meat,
and milk production Amberland
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Political Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Political Structure
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Executive Branch President:
Gamal Wakil, received public ridicule after cooperating with US
Defense Minister: Karim Sulaiman Foreign Minister: Hosni Siraj
Legislative Branch National Upper Assembly: Alaad al-Burr National
Lower Assembly: Gareel Mulsoor National Courts Grand Spiritual
Leader: Hamzah Mahdi An emergent factor is the Student Solidarity
Union (SSU) Amber Executive Branch President: Dr. Edjear Hapsalu
Prime Minister: Andres Rakvere Defense Minister (also the
Commander- in-Chief of Armed Forces) Legislative Branch Parliament:
The Peoples Assembly 245 members Judicial Branch Clan-based
militias establish Shahida courts Clans enforce street law Divided
into 4 regions Population felt betrayed when Amberland seceded from
Amber and in response TANG support increased
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Political Structure
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Amberland Executive Branch
President: Ahmed Polva Two appointed prime ministers Legislative
Branch Consists of fifty seat unicameral assembly Council of elders
appoints current representatives Judicial Branch Council of elders
establish the supreme court Courts resort to shahida and have no
experience in secular law
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Military Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL
USA, MNFA Legend Naval base: Airfields: Legend Airfields: Navy
Bases: Garnet Military Orientation
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Amber Military
Orientation UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Legend Coastal Missile
Defense/radar sites:
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Amberland Military
Orientation UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Legend Airfields: Navy
Bases:
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VEO Dynamics UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Clans
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Lovisa: 700 Active members
Internal threat to Amberland Supports the ideal of the PHARM Self
sufficient Hamina: 625 active members Close ties with Paldiski clan
Paldiski: Has approximately 600 active members Paldiskis current
strength is mostly due to Haminas assistance Kuresare: Is the least
active clan in their involvement in the PHARM Amber Tartu: Tartu
supports the TANG Valga: Second largest clan Primary focus is
strengthening and reinforcing the clan Lahti: Largest of the clans,
but not considered the most powerful Guerrilla warfare Rauma: Most
influential and pro-TANG Focused primarily on bettering the TANG
and strengthening Amber
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Clans
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Amberland Lovisa: Hostile towards
western rhetoric 60,000 members 2,200 are 15-50 old potential
combatants Hamina: Supporter of western influence Estimated 120,000
members Paldiski: Supporter of western influence Estimated 110,000
members Kuresare: Supporter of western influence Estimated 50,000
members Smallest participation with PHARM during separation
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces VEO Orientation
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Legend RMR AO: PHARM AO: PIA
AO:
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Social Influences
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Culture
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Country population: 27
million Language: Garnetian Religion: 96% of the population is
Shahida Quality is deteriorating and doctors are assessed to be
less qualified Amber Country Population: 10 million Language:
Ambertine Majority of Ambertines speak in regional dialect
Religion: Majority of the population is Shahida Education: No
formal education system No central medical system
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Amberland Culture
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA AMBERLAND
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External Influence UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces External Influence 30
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Garnet Garnet is distrustful of
Onyx Pyrope contest Garnets occupation of Weasel Island Maintains a
close relationship with Amberland, sharing common fundamental
religious beliefs and opposition to Amber Amber Receives
considerable support from Onyx Maintains diplomatic relations with
every country except Garnet Treaty of Seperation between Amber and
Amberland Treaty of Lovisa: main focus is to halt hostilities
towards Amberland, United States, UN, and Amber
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces External Influence
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Amberland Common opposition to
Amber Close ties with Garnet Garnet gives their support solely to
the Lovisa clan Factions with Garnets military funnel money and
equipment to the Lovisas
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Crisis Assessment UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces Crisis Assessment 33
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Broad IndicationsIndicators
Observed Comments 1. VEOs are willing, able and capable of
conducting violent attacks (U) Reporting has shown that PIA and
PHARM disagree with western influence and have shown the
willingness and capability to conduct attacks. 2. Anti-Western
Rhetoric (U) Rhetorical dialogue within Garnet will continue to
spread anti-western propaganda. Amber will continue to promote
western influence, as long as the continuation of US resources
remains. Legend Indicators Routine: Abnormal: Significant:
Critical:
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces 34
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Broad IndicationsIndicators
Observed Comments 3. Political Instability (U) Due to the political
significance of PHARM, PIA, and various VEOs; political stability
is likely to decrease substantially in the near future. 4. General
Disorder (U) VEOs conduct operations on vital infrastructure,
mostly consisting of explosive attacks. (U) PHARM continuously uses
drug smuggling as a means of income to obtain weapons. (U) Piracy
off the coast of Amber has resulted in the seizure of an oil tanker
by PHARM affiliates. Crisis Assessment Legend Indicators Routine:
Abnormal: Significant: Critical:
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Alternative Futures UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces 36
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA US Assistance in Amber
Anti-Western protests Greater public outcry for US assistance
Regional stability increased Gradual security improvement Positive
impact Low level of assistance Negative impact High level of
assistance
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US Fleet Forces US Marine Corps Forces 37
UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO/REL USA, MNFA Increased tension regarding
borders and natural resources Closed borders and tribal friction
Increased trade relations, border security and improved tribal
relations Combined effort to reduce VEO influence Positive impact
Military Intervention Negative impact Political Diplomacy Garnet
Influence in Amber
