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2010 Market Update/Outlook. Robert F. Carey, CFA Chief Investment Officer First Trust Portfolios L.P. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Robert F. Carey, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
First Trust Portfolios L.P.
2010 Market Update/Outlook
This report was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice. This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security.
Money Flowing Into Equities: Block Trades
-10000
10000
30000
50000
70000
90000
110000
130000
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
4/14/09 6/14/09 8/14/09 10/14/09 12/14/09 2/14/10 4/14/10
S&P 500 Block (millions USD)
Source: Bloomberg
Money Flowing Into Equities: Non-Block
Source: Bloomberg
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
4/15/09 6/15/09 8/15/09 10/15/09 12/15/09 2/15/10 4/15/10
S&P 500 Non-Block (millions USD)
Bond FundsStock Funds
Source: Investment Company Institute
Open-end Funds Net InflowsJanuary 2009 to Feb 2010
$50b
$40b
$30b
$20b
$10b
0
-$10b
-$20b
-$30b
Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
V =
Market Valuation Equation
Asset TurnsAsset Turns X MarginMargin
X X TAXESCredit Spread
Bond Spreads Over 10-Year Treasury
Source: Citigroup Global Markets / Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Merrill
0
5
10
15
20
25
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
10-Year Treasury
Corporate Junk Bond
BBB Bonds
Muni Bonds
percent
CDS Spreads
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10
Investment Grade Hi Yield Emerging Market
basis points
Source: CDS, Bloomberg
Market Valuation & S&P Chart1986 to Current
4.23.10
Monthly Index Closes S&P 500 Index
Market Valuation & S&P Chart
S&P 500Cash Flow ROI
Discount Rate
Median CFROI
4.23.10
Globalization and Correlation
Correlation of Foreign Stocks to the S&P 500
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
NIKKEI 225 Index
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg, AAII
AAII Bearish Index
20
30
40
50
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
percent
52 Week Average
Source: Bloomberg
AAII Bearish Index / S&P 500 Total Return
Where’s The Value?
4.23.10
Web Resources
Jeffrey K. Schroeder
Senior Managing Consultant
PFM Asset Management, L.L.C.
2010 Investment Overview
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields1965 - 2010
Long-Term Treasury Yields
Source: Bloomberg
3.45% on 05/17/2010
Longest Bull Market in History
Yield Curve Flattens On Concerns In Europe
4/1/10 5/14/10 Change
3 month 0.15% 0.15% - 0.01%
6 month 0.23% 0.21% - 0.02%
1 year 0.39% 0.33% - 0.06%
2 year 1.06% 0.78% - 0.27%
3 year 1.60% 1.29% - 0.31%
5 year 2.59% 2.16% - 0.43%
10 year 3.87% 3.45% - 0.42%
30 year 4.73% 4.34% - 0.39%
U.S. Treasury Yield CurveApril 1, 2010 versus May 14, 2010
Source: Bloomberg
• Concerns, that Greece and other European countries will be unable to repay debt, led longer-term U.S. Treasury rates lower by more than 0.40% from April to May.
• At the same time, short-term rates remained unchanged, leading to a flattening of the yield curve. Still, from a historical perspective, the yield curve remains steep.
Yield Curve Continues To Flatten
2-Year and 10-Year U.S. Treasury SpreadMay 1, 2000 – May 14, 2010
• The debt crisis in Europe weighed more heavily on long-term yields than short-term yields as the prospects for long-term growth in Europe have diminished. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have dropped between 0.40% and 0.50% from the beginning of April, with 10-year U. S. Treasuries yielding below 3.5%. In that same period 2-year yields dropped about 0.30% to yield under 0.80%.
Source: Bloomberg
Current Short-Term Investment Rates
Source: Bloomberg
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%$1mm FDIC Insured CDs
Commercial Paper
Federal Agencies
U.S. Treasuries
Investment Rates as of May 17, 2010
• Allocation to longer-term strategies should be based on the each entity’s investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs
*Illinois Funds Money Market Fund**Source: Bloomberg, Illinois Funds Website
Longer-Term Portfolios Outperform over Time
Risk/Return of Various Benchmarks10 Years Ended 3/31/2010
Cumulative Quarters WithOverall Value of Negative
Merrill Lynch Index Duration Return $25,000,000 Returns
3-Month Treasury Bill 0.23 Years 2.84% $33,097,427 0 out of 40
6-Month Treasury Bill 0.48 Years 3.25% $34,429,160 0 out of 40
1 Year Treasury Index 0.99 Years 3.69% $35,941,198 3 out of 40
0-3 Year Treasury Index 1.55 Years 3.93% $36,779,215 3 out of 40
1-3 Year Treasury Index 1.92 Years 4.42% $38,540,345 4 out of 40
1-5 Year Treasury Index 2.65 Years 4.93% $40,478,470 10 out of 40
1-10 Year Treasury Index 3.94 Years 5.39% $42,266,968 11 out of 40
3-5 Year Treasury Index 3.88 Years 5.96% $44,620,953 14 out of 40
Wendy J. Flaherty
Senior Vice President
First Trust Portfolios L.P.
2010 Debt Market Overview
Municipal Market Overview
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0.0%
25.0%
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
125.0%
150.0%
175.0%
200.0%
225.0%
07/0
3/07
01/0
1/08
09/1
5/08
01/0
1/09
05/1
4/10
% Muni's to Treasuries
10 y Treas
10 y Muni MMAI
JP Morgan takes over Bear Stearns
Lehman Brothers Collapses
Build America Bonds go to Market
Insurers in Transition
Deterioration of once Aaa rated bond insurers has changed the market for municipalities:
Today, to obtain low interest rates and sell your bonds in the market it is necessary to have and maintain a strong underlying rating.
Insurer Moody's Rating S&P's Rating 2 Years AgoAmbac Caa2 R Aaa/AAAAssured Gty Aa3 (NEG) AAA (NEG) Aaa/AAABHAC Aa1 AA+ Aaa/AAACIFG WR NR Aaa/AAAFGIC WR NR Aaa/AAAAGM (f. FSA) Aa3 (NEG) AAA (NEG) Aaa/AAANATL (f.MBIA) Baa1 A Aaa/AAAXLCA (Syncora) Ca R Aaa/AAARadian Ba1 BB- Aaa/AAA
Updated 3/26/2010
Ratings in Transition
Prior to credit crisis, investors relied on insurance to enhance the value of their bonds60% of new issues were insured at its peak.
Today, less than 10% of new issues are backed by insurance.
Credit ratings and understanding of municipal credit is more important today than ever before.
Rating agencies are recalibrating municipal credit ratings – resulting in higher ratings for most government agencies.
Why? Municipal credits default rates are so low only .03% as compared to nearly 1% in corporate bonds.
What does this mean for your District? It is more important than ever to maintain financial policies and procedures that will preserve the credit quality of your District today and in the future.
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Signed into law on February 17, 2009, the ARRA created significant opportunities for school districts to finance school construction projects.
The ARRA is a “Federal” law. The bonds described in the Act are those that may be issued under federal laws. The bonds must also be issued in accordance with Illinois laws, including the School Code, the Local Government Debt Reform Act, Bond Issue Notification Act and Property Tax Extension Limitation Law.
New Types of Bonds for School Construction
Qualified School Construction Bonds Build America Bonds Recovery Zone Economic Development Bonds Qualified Zone Academy Bonds
Most Popular – Build America Bonds
Issued Taxably vs. traditional Tax Exempt
Issuer receives a 35% subsidy from the IRS
Over $103 Billion in issuance since inception in April 2009 BABs provide taxable fixed income investors with a new
investment option, taxable municipal debt, an alternative to corporate bonds
$0.00
$2,000,000,000.00
$4,000,000,000.00
$6,000,000,000.00
$8,000,000,000.00
$10,000,000,000.00
$12,000,000,000.00
$14,000,000,000.00
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep-
09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
BABs Issuance By Month
Amount
Total BABs issued thru April 2010 is over $103 Billion!
BABs Issuance Update
19
190
459
383
198
420
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
< 1MM 1MM - 5MM 5MM - 25MM 25MM -100MM
100MM -500MM
> 500MM
Num
ber o
f dea
ls
BAB Deals Sold by Size
BAB Deals Sold by Purpose Class
State/Local34%
Education22%
Transportation22%
Water & Sewer10%
Power7%
Recreation3%
Hospital2%
Solid Waste / Resource Recovery
0%Industrials
0%
No Purpose Class0%Housing
0%
BAB Coupons – Interest Rates
$0
$5,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$15,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$25,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$35,000,000,000
Zero 0% to 0.9%
1% to 1.9%
2% to 2.9%
3% to 3.9%
4% to 4.9%
5% to 5.9%
6% to 6.9%
7% to 7.9%
8% to 8.9%
> 9%
BABs are issued Taxably and the Issuer receives a 35% subsidy from the IRS
BAB by Rating
$0
$10,000,000,000
$20,000,000,000
$30,000,000,000
$40,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$60,000,000,000
AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C SD D NA
Since the majority of ratings are in the A range or better, only 2% of the issues have insurance as an added credit enhancement
Sample Interest Rates
Dated 4/28/2010Delivery 4/28/2010 35%
Maturity PriceTaxable
YieldRate with BABs
35% CreditComparable Tax
Exempt Yield Difference12/15/2010 100.000 1.00% 0.65% 0.80% 0.15%12/15/2011 100.000 1.07% 0.70% 1.20% 0.50%12/15/2012 100.000 1.75% 1.14% 1.40% 0.26%12/15/2013 100.000 2.45% 1.59% 1.70% 0.11%12/15/2014 100.000 2.85% 1.85% 2.05% 0.20%12/15/2015 100.000 3.60% 2.34% 2.37% 0.03%
12/15/2016 100.000 3.97% 2.58% 2.87% 0.29%12/15/2017 100.000 4.70% 3.05% 3.18% 0.13%12/15/2018 100.000 4.90% 3.18% 3.40% 0.22%12/15/2019 100.000 5.20% 3.38% 3.60% 0.22%12/15/2020 100.000 5.30% 3.44% 3.75% 0.31%12/15/2021 100.000 5.50% 3.57% 3.90% 0.33%12/15/2022 100.000 5.60% 3.64% 4.00% 0.36%12/15/2023 100.000 5.70% 3.70% 4.10% 0.40%12/15/2024 100.000 5.85% 3.80% 4.20% 0.40%12/15/2025 100.000 5.85% 3.80% 4.25% 0.45%12/15/2026 100.000 5.85% 3.80% 4.30% 0.50%12/15/2027 100.000 6.25% 4.06% 4.35% 0.29%12/15/2028 100.000 6.25% 4.06% 4.40% 0.34%12/15/2029 100.000 6.25% 4.06% 4.45% 0.39%
Sample Rate SavingsComparative Interest Rates
Build America Bonds
Conclusions
BABs have dramatically changed the municipal bond market– Issuers have a cost effective means of funding capital expenditures– Investors have a new high quality taxable debt option
A temporary event? Remains to be determined:– Many market participants are calling for a permanent extension– The cost to the Federal government is substantial during a
challenging budget environment YET many in Washington believe the Tax Credits are much more efficient than traditional tax-exemption
Given the historical difference in default rates:– The yield differential between BABs and corporate bonds seems
counter-intuitive…will this change over time? – We believe extension will be made at least through 2013