1

Roger DerrienManaging Director, Wireless Business Development A/P

Lucent Technologies

2

What are our end-users expecting?

3

Is it UMTS? What’s that!

Is it cdma2000? Could be but I don’t know what that is either.

Is it harmonization? Maybe but what are we harmonizing.

Is it cheap, high speed, reliable service with killer applications?Yes, most definitely!!

4

Wireless Usage Will Soar

$0.00

$0.05$0.10

$0.15$0.20

$0.25

$0.30$0.35

$0.40$0.45

$0.50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

$/ M

inut

e of

Use

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Subs

crib

ers

(Mill

ions

); M

inut

es o

f Use

(Bill

ions

)

Cost/ MOU ($)

MOU (B)

Subscribers (M)

[Source: Merrill Lynch]

Rapidly declining costs per MOU and new services will drive subscriber growth and usage

5

Wireless Market Perspective

Early 80’s: How many cars need a telephone?

Late 90’s: How many people need a telephone?

Wireless market consistently underestimated because of unanticipated market changes.

Time

Premium Service

‘92 Conventional Wisdom

‘94 CW

‘97 CW

‘98CW

50% _ 40%_

30%_

20%_

10%_

0% _

% P

enet

ratio

n

Did not anticipate portable phone.

Did not anticipate pre-paid

‘99CW

Did not anticipate ???

6

How do we take them there?

Networks - today’s networks are data capable. Operators need to start there migration today to keep up with the future network demands of tomorrow.

Through an evolution of: Applications - internet, location based services and

transaction based applications over WAP will drive demand

Markets - operators need to determine what type of role they want to play in wireless data and what market segments to go after

7

09 February, 20000% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

USA

Japan

Asia/Pacific

West Europe

ROW MobileSubsrciberPenetrationInternetPenetration

Internet and Mobile Subscriber Penetration - 2004

Source: ARC Group

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Data Rates for Wireless Services

30

Mas

s M

arke

t Dem

and

(5 y

ear v

iew

)

CreditCard

Verification

ShortMessageServices

RemoteOffice

IntegratedMessaging

LargeFile Transfer

MultimediaWWW

WirelessPostcard

Data rates assume lightly loaded packet channel. Optimized mediaaccess control necessary to assureadequate response time in highusage case.

Video/MultimediaConference

LimitedBroadcast

Video

Networkedcomputing

Fax

44-64 Kbps 144 Kbps 2 Mbps384 Kbps14.4 Kbps9.6 Kbps

Data Rate<9.6 Kbps

E-Banking/E-Commerce

Web Clipping

InteractiveGames &

Entertainment

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• 2.5G & 3G enables personalization and integration– Individualized services across multiple networks– Seamless personal service delivery– Online, anywhere, anytime -- always on– m - commerce

Today’sToday’s communications are via multiple devices with the dependence on interfacing with intranets for timely

business information

Where The Internet And Mobility Intersect

InternetMobility

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Buildings

Computers

People

Homes Appliances

TransportationVehicles & Systems

VendingMachines

$$

....

..

Communications Network Transformation

Multiple Connections per Person Networking Embedded in Household and Business Devices Full Time, “Always On” Connectivity, At Home, At Work, and On the Go:

Wireline: Fixed Broadband for Business, Entertainment & High End Applications Wireless: Mobility for Convenience & Portability Converged Services available via multiple forms of access.

IntelligentSubscriber Devices

People to People People to Things Things to Things

11

Influences on IMT-2000 “Family of Systems”

A “Family of Systems” for IMT-2000 services, ensuring network standards interoperability.

Cdma2000 & DoCoMo WCDMA

ARIB & TTC

ANSI-41 / WIN &GSM-MAP/CAMEL

Asia/Pacific

Cdma2000 & UWC-136

ANSI-41/ WIN

TIA TR 45

North America

UTRA

GSM-MAP / CAMELEuropeETSI

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Network Options for GSM & cdmaOne Data Evolution per Ovum Research

cdmaOne Network Options

3X3X

No 3XNo 3X

cdmaOnecdmaOneIS-95AIS-95A

1998 1999 2000 2001

1X1X

GSM Network OptionsSource: Ovum ResearchPublished: Mobile Communications International

UMTSUMTS

No UMTSNo UMTS

HSCDHSCD

GPRSGPRS

GSMGSM

1998 1999 2001 2003

EDGEEDGE

IS-95BIS-95B

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IMT-2000 Evolution Path Options

2G 2.5G 3G/ IMT-2000 ServicesExisting Spectrum

GSM900,1800

GPRS

GSM MOU

GSM

GSM 1900

GPRS

ETSIW-CDMA

3G NNIGSM N. America

Existing Spectrum New Spectrum

EDGE

IS-95A ANSI-95IS-95B

cdma2000Phase 11.25MHz

cdma2000Phase 2

5MHz

CDG

ANSI-41New Software

Changes toBS and Mobile

New HW and/or SWNew Mobiles/Data Device

Utilize Existing Voice Channels

New Software New Circuit Packs

New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still

Compatible

New BS & SWNew Mobiles/Data Device

Utilize Existing Voice Channels

New SoftwareNew BS Modules

New MobilesExisting Mobiles Still

Compatible

New SpectrumNew Air Interface

New MobilesBackward

Compatibility with GSM-MAP

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Summary• It’s critical that we do not get consumed by the technology but stay

focused on the END-USER needs

• DoCoMo has shown us all that the issue is not access but providing key marketable applications to the end-user

• Even with all the efforts of the OHG there are still at least 3 distinct paths in supporting an evolution to IMT - 2000

Existing cdmaOne operators should deploy a 1XRTT solution migrating to 3G3X (CDMA2000)

Existing GSM operators will migrate to GPRS/EDGE migrating to UMTS through the purchase of new spectrum

Existing TDMA operators will follow a similar path as GSM stopping at EDGE

• Bottom line is that migration to a digital wireless network should begin “TODAY” regardless of the access network that you are operating