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Rohit TalwarCEO
Fast [email protected]
Kellen Euroconference
Brussels
April 29th 2009
How to Design Your Association’s Future
Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
Objectives
• Understand the key patterns and drivers of
change
• Examine how to win in a downturn
• Provide ideas for mapping your preferred
future
• Mobilising the stakeholders
Program Concept and Objectives
• Fast Track research program
• Provide practical insights and tools to help members:
– Prepare for the future
– Develop future strategy, and
– Drive innovations to help associations stay relevant to the changing needs and expectations of their members.
• Scanning at the core
1. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
445 665
769
5266
4034
731
965
339
572
Source : United Nations2008 2050
2. Economic Power ShiftsThe Top 20 in 2025?
Purchasing Power Parity Models help create fair pricing in each country
The Middle East – Against the Wind?
US$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025
170 million Tourists by 2020
Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012
Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025
1130 new aircraft by 2030
King Abdullah Economic City – US$120Bn
3. Politics gets Complex
4. Expanding Business Agenda
5. Science and Technology go Mainstream
6. Generational Crossroads
7. Rethinking Talent, Education and Training
• Online, on-demand delivery
• Accelerated learning
9. Global Internet Expansion
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
9. A Society in Transition
Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com
10. Natural Resource Challenges
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stm
“Companies that are not adequately managing the consequences of climate change on their business will not be welcomed as our customers in the future”
Rick MurrayChief Claims Strategist
Swiss Rehttp://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg
Winning in a Downturn
• Sticky and
Magnetic
• Thought
Leadership
• Innovation
What Future are we Creating?
• Big Picture Insights
• Core Customers/ Segments
• Conversations that Energise
• Key Choices
Lead or Follow?
Running on Empty
Rethinking Talent, Education and Training
• Networks
• Secondments
• Collaborative
E-learning
• Accelerated
Learning
• Volunteering
All in it Together
Creating Evangelists – Are you Sticky and Magnetic?
Thought LeadershipServing the Value Chain
Challenge 1 - Know Thyself
Purpose, Strategic Direction
and Vision
Core Products
and Service Offerings
Delivery Model
OrganizationModel
Current ContextFuture Landscape
PurposeMembers
Serving other StakeholdersGlobal Ambitions
CultureVision and Direction
Purpose, Strategic Direction and Vision
Core Products and ServicesGlobal OfferingsRepresentation
Sharing Foresight and Best PracticeCommunity and NetworkingLearning and Development
One Stop ShopMarkets of 1Life Solutions
Core Products and Service Offerings
ChannelsTechnology
Social NetworksResponsibility
Business Model
Delivery Model
ResilienceResponsiveness and Agility
SustainabilityTalent
PartnershipsMeasurementLegal Structure
OrganizationGovernance, Effective Boards and
Volunteer Leadership
Organization Model
Challenge 2
What’s our Leadership Paradigm?
Envisioning Tomorrow’s Organization
• Purpose - what are we her for?
• Markets - who should we serve?
Love is in the Air
Road to Nowhere
Suspicious Minds
Dancing in the Dark
GDP Growth India and China
8-10%
6-7%
3-4%
Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3%
GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
Challenge 3 - Prepare for Alternative Scenarios
What does the timeline of developments look like for your
key markets?
Challenge 5 -Innovating New Solutions
• Low cost innovation approaches
• Industry changing ideas
Challenge 6 – Challenge 6 – Exploring Emerging EmpiresExploring Emerging Empires
• Nationalisation Nationalisation opportunitiesopportunities
• Conventions Conventions market market
Going International – Key Assumptions
Why - We know why we are doing this
Who - We are clear on who’s leading it
What - We have a view on what value we can add and who we want to serve
When - This is a long-term commitment
China India USA UK Japan S. Korea Taiwan
Population 1,313,973,713 1,095,351,995 300,000,000 60,609,153 127,463,611 48,846,823 23,036,087
Soft Drink - litres per capita
25 3 240 222 150 90 90
Food consumption per capita
3000 calories 2100-2400 calories
3800 calories 3700 calories 2898 calories 3303 calories 3000 calories
Food consumption % of p c income
26% 55% 9.9% 16% 15% 28% 26%
Total no. of Internet Users
137 million 40 million 210 million 37.6 million 86.3 million 33.9 million 13.21 million
No. of Internet Users (per 100k)
10,462 3651 70,000 62,046 67,739 69,467 57,434
Total no. of cell phones
450 million 140 million 219 million 61.091 million 94.75 million 38.342 million 22.17 million
No. of cell phones
(per 100k)
34,246 12,781 70,000 100,810 74, 372 78,569 96,391
Total no. of colour TV's
460 Million 105 million 290 million 40 million 107 million 23 million 10 million
No. of colour TV's. (per 100k)
35,000 9586 96,666 66,006 84260 47,660 43900
Total no. of cars. 30 million 10 million 240 million 33 million 70 million 15 million 18 million
No. of cars.
(per 100k)
2283 912 80,000 54,455 54,945 30,737 78,260
There is considerable growth potential in emerging economies
Challenge 7 - Explore New Business Models
Challenge 8Embedding Environmental Scanning,
Scenario Planning and What-if Thinking.
• Engaging members in scanning
• Leveraging the insights
Choosing the Scale of Change
Know Your Starting Point
• Future insights
• Capability / Limitations
• Membership Needs
• Unmet opportunity
• Risks / threats
• How decisions get made
• Tolerance of uncertainty
Developing a Future Roadmap
• Environmental scanning
• Trend analysis
• Scenario workshop
• Identify the ‘vital few’
• Create action teams or Strategic Task Force
• Conduct strategic review
• Identify gaps and opportunities
Working with the Trends and Patterns of Change
• Pick specific trends / patterns to focus on
• Test against current activity and future plans
• How could member needs be affected?
• What could the direct impact be – strategy and functions
• Scale, timescale, warning signs
• Possible responses
Create Tolerance of Uncertainty
Building Board Ownership and Engaging Stakeholders
Staying the Journey
• Clarity
• What does ‘do nothing’ cost you
• Embed the thinking
• Innovation architecture
• Tolerance of uncertainty
• Tap the network
MOHANDAS KARAMCHAND GANDHI 1869 - 1948
“First they ignore you.
Then they laugh at you.
Then you win.”
• Direction and Purpose
• Trends and Challenges
• Foresight Culture
• Organize for Innovation
• ‘Call to Action’
ConclusionsDesigning the Future