Role of Gas in Future Sustainable Energy Systems · Page 10 2019-05-16 Sweden Gasdagarna –European Gas Supply PG ST Siemens Hydrogen Gas Turbines for our sustainable future

Sweden Gasdagarna | 16. May 2019

Role of Gas in Future

Sustainable Energy SystemsPeter Klüsener, Siemens Gas & Power Strategy GP ST

siemens.tld/keywordConfidential © Siemens AG 2019

Confidential © Siemens AG 2019

2019-05-16 Sweden Gasdagarna – European Gas SupplyPage 2 PG ST

Future sustainable energy landscape will be more manifold

rather than pure electrification

Common statements:

• 100% renewable energy systems by 2050, realistic?

• Renewables in combination with battery storage capable to secure security of supply?

• Gas power plants only bridge technology?

• Synthetic fuels not applicable due to high cost and low efficiency?

… but current markets already indicate development in a more manifold direction!



Gas in power will expand globally even in decarbonization

case, for EU it will be stable or shrinking depending on

decarbonization level

0.9

1.6

2016

2.6

Solar

4.0

1.0

9.6

0.7 0.7

9.9

1.1

4.1

10.7

3.6

2.6

5.9

0.9

0.2

2017

7.8

10.3

3.7

1.8

4.1

Other RE6.2

5.4

9.1

0.5

IHS

Autonomy

IEA NPS

0.4

3.7

5.3

5.7

5.3

0.6

11.7

2.5

7.3

7.0

IEA SDS

5.0

39.7

6.72.0

5.8

1.8

0.3

6.8

4.1

4.7

Wind

Hydro

IHS Rivalry

Nuclear

7.7

6.3

0.6Oil

Coal

24.9 25.6

40.442.4

37.0

Gas

World: power generation (1,000 TWh) Europe: power generation (1,000 TWh)

0.07

0.06

Other RE

0.79

0.23

IEA SDS

0.32

0.94

2016

0.250.37

0.45

0.36

0.61

0.31

0.93

0.48

0.87

0.07

0.95

2017

0.40

1.22

0.78

0.71

0.40

0.89

0.57

1.56

0.010.96

0.69

0.51

IEA NPS

0.51

0.82

1.33

0.66

0.75

IHS Rivalry

0.65

0.03

4.47

0.36

0.99

Wind

1.47

0.01

0.370.34

0.69

0.52

0.410.00

0.08

IHS

Autonomy

Solar

Hydro

0.68

Gas

Oil

Coal

4.30

4.784.65

5.00

4.23

Nuclear

2040 2040

Green Scenarios

(ambitious energy policy)

Blue Scenarios

(current energy policy)

Green Scenarios

(ambitious energy policy

Blue Scenarios


• Increase of power generation by gas by 80% in ‘blue scenarios’

• At least stable or increase in gas demand by 35% in ‘green scenarios ‘

• Stable power generation by gas in ‘blue scenarios’

• Decrease in power generation by gas by 35-50% in ‘green scenarios‘



Gas power plant capacity is expected to grow by 40-60%

globally in all scenarios, also for Europe capacity will

increase but more moderate

2.8

2.2

0.10.5

0.2

0.3

0.4

1.6

4.5

0.4

2.3

IEA SDS

0.4 0.3

2.7

2.0

1.8

1.7

2016

0.5

1.7

0.20.40.5

2017

1.3

1.7

0.4

0.4

2.1

0.3

2.6

Oil

1.8

Solar

0.2

1.5

IEA NPS

1.9

IHS

Autonomy

0.3

0.5

2.1

IHS Rivalry

0.5

2.8

2.1

0.7

2.4

2.5

2.3

1.1

3.8

0.6

1.2

Other RE

Wind

Hydro

0.2

Gas

Coal

6.7 7.0

12.2 11.9

14.3

12.9

Nuclear

231 228108

30

264 265

378 284 377189

145 142108

141

244 246277

277291

279

162 178407

485535

528

210 228

299 406

409

495

62

15

88

2016

49

75

2017

40

61

Hydro

1,667

76

15

IEA NPS

77

Gas 97

46

Nuclear

IHS Rivalry

15

IEA SDS

90

35

IHS

Autonomy

Other RE

Wind

Oil

Coal

1,364 1,397

1,760

1,896

1,707

Solar

104

World: power generation capacity (1,000 GW) Europe: power generation capacity (GW)

2040 2040

Green Scenarios


Blue Scenarios


Green Scenarios


Blue Scenarios


1)

1) Typical peak load level in Europe 530 GW



Beside RE expansion significant new build of gas power

plants required for global energy transition

2018-2040 NPS / Rivalry SDS / Autonomy

Retirements 600-650 GW

Capacity additions 1700 GW 1350 GW

Installed Capacity +1050-1100 GW +700-750 GW

2018-2040 NPS / Rivalry SDS / Autonomy

Retirements 100-150 GW

Capacity additions 150-260 GW 60-260 GW

Installed Capacity +50-110 GW -40..+110 GW

Green Scenarios


Blue Scenarios


Green Scenarios


Blue Scenarios


World: gas power generation capacity in detail Europe: gas power generation capacity in detail

New build of gas power plants driven by:

• Replacement of coal and nuclear power plants (Coal-to-Gas shift)

• Accompanying expansion of fluctuating renewables (firm, dispatchable capacity)

• Ageing of existing gas power plants

• Split of new builds into CHP, CCPP and peaker plants (GTPP)



Wind and Solar power are the dedicated pillars of a decarbonized

energy system, but fluctuation is challenging

Source: Agora Energiewende, Agorameter

April 2018 May 2018

Installed Wind/Solar Capacity:

Status December 2016:

Wind Power 59 GW

Solar PV 46 GW

Projections for 2050:

Wind Power 190-210 GW

Solar PV 110-180 GW

~7 consecutive days with

very low feed-in from RE

(~1 to 15 GW wind/solar feed-in

from ~100 GW installed capacity)

~10 consecutive days with very low

feed-in from RE

(2 to 20 GW wind/solar feed-in from ~100

GW installed capacity)

Contribution of Wind/Solar to firm capacity at time of

peak load:

• Wind Power typically <5 GW for periods of 8-10

consecutive days several times a year

• Solar PV always 0 GW at time of peak load (7 p.m.)

every winter day

Nearly full coverage of power demand by RE for

part of the day for several consecutive days

December 2018 January 2019

Germany: Daily power generation profiles for Renewables and Conventional Power Plants

Curtailment

risksShowcase Germany

Dark

doldrums

BiomassHydroWind Offsh.Wind Onsh.SolarConv. Plants



Phase-out of coal in power generation is targeted in numerous

countries in Europe, in some for nuclear power as well

2035

43 GW

2025

10 GW

2021

3 GW

2025

0.6 GW

2030

2 GW

2025

1 GW

2025

11 GW

2029

5 GW

2030

2 GW

2022

0.8 GW

2029

3 GW

under discussion

11 GW

under discussion

1 GW

Coal phase-out announced or

no coal in electricity mix

Coal phase-out under discussion

Coal phase-out not under

discussion

Numerous countries in Europe have committed on coal phase-out

159

87

72

Remaining

Capacity

Installed

Capacity 2018

Phase-outs

Reduction in Coal power capacity in Europe (GW)

123

8934

Installed

Capacity 2018

Phase-outs Remaining

Capacity

Reduction in Nuclear power capacity in Europe (GW)

Germany, Belgium,

Switzerland, Nether-

lands, France

(reduction to 50%)



Sweden: retirement of thermal power plants causes decrease

in dispatchable capacity despite renewable installations

6.7

8.3

3.13.1

2017

7.2

16.4

8.3

2.23.1

2018

5.6

8.0

2019

16.4

Oil8.3

44.7

1.85.6

8.6Wind

5.5

Gas

11.8

7.5

3.1

Other RE

2020

42.35.9

4.9

16.7

43.3

6.7

14.4

16.8

6.7

Coal0.6

2025 2030

16.4

Solar

Hydro 16.4

Nuclear

5.5

0.6

41.843.2

48.0

1.2 1 1 1 11 1

6258 61 54 49 48

6466

6867

68 68

1717

1921 29 38

1114

1414 14

14

1

2018

1

1

Other non-RE

1

20202019

160

1

1 0

1

1

1

2030

3

Other RE

1

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

2017

Gas

1

Oil

2025

Coal

160 157165 163

172

1 0 0 0 0

11

Sweden: power generation capacity (GW) Sweden: power generation (TWh)

Dispatchable

Capacity

20302017

30.8

2018 2019

Peak Load

31.1

20252020

30.9 29.8 27.4 27.8

21%<10%

Reserve Margin<10%

6,300 7,200Nuclear

900 1,600Gas

Power plant load factors:

Source: IHS Markit, July 2018

Increasing load factors for

conventional power plants

(Nuclear, Gas) foreseen

Decreasing (national) reserve margin

25.7 GW



Power-to-Hydrogen as a basis for sector coupling – Convert

electricity in chemical form as energy carrier and feedstock

Solar (PV)

Wind

H2O

O2H2

Haber-Bosch

N2

Ammonia(and secondary products, Urea,

DAP)

Methane

Methanol(and secondary products, e.g.

MTBE, gasoline, kerosene)

Fischer-Tropsch products (diesel, wax)

➢ Fertilizer

➢ Chemical feedstock

➢ As carrier for hydrogen or direct use

for energy

➢ Carbon-neutral fuels - mobility, heat

➢ Chemical feedstock

➢ Re-electrification (long-term storage)

Hydrogen

➢ Direct use for mobility (fuel cell) and

electricity (turbines, engines = long-

term storage)

➢ Chemical feedstock (e.g. refinery)

Power Generation Conversion Applications

Air separation

CO2

Geothermal

Intermittent Renewables

Continuous RES

N2

Syntheses,

e.g. Fischer-Tropsch

Direct air capture

Capture from flue gases(power, industry)

Water

electrolysis

Hydro

Biomass

Power-to-Hydrogen

Power-to-Ammonia

Power-to-Carbon Fuel

Electrical

energy

CO2



Siemens Hydrogen Gas Turbines for our sustainable future –

The mission is to burn 100% hydrogen

Heavy-duty

gas turbines

Industrial

gas turbines

Aeroderivative

gas turbines

50H

z5

0H

z o

r60H

z60H

z450 MW

329 MW

187 MW

310 MW

215 to 260 MW

117 MW

60 to 71/58 to 62 MW

27 to 37/28 to 38 MW

4 to 6 MW

48 to 57 MW

40/34 to 41 MW

33/34 MW

24/25 MW

10 to 14/11 to 15 MW

8/8 to 9 MW

5/6 MW

41 to 44 MW

SGT5-9000HL

SGT5-8000H

SGT5-4000F

SGT5-2000E

SGT6-9000HL

SGT6-8000H

SGT6-5000F

SGT6-2000E

SGT-A65

SGT-800

SGT-A45

SGT-750

SGT-700

SGT-A35

SGT-600

SGT-400

SGT-300

SGT-100

SGT-A05

593 MW

405 MW

5

10

15

27

5

10

25

27

15

50

100

40

55

15

60

10

30

30

2

100

15

65

65

100

Diffusion burner with unabated NOx emissionsDLE burner WLE burner1 ISO, Base Load, Natural GasVersion 2.0, March 2019

Higher H2 contents

to be discussed

on a project

specific basis

Values shown are indicative

for new unit applications and

depend on local conditions and

requirements. Some operating

restrictions/special hardware

and package modifications

may apply. Any project >25%

requires dedicated engineering

for package certification.

H2 capabilities in vol. %Gas turbine model Power Output1



Gas turbines can burn hydrogen after implementation of

some modifications in burner and combustion systems

• Increased creation of NOx for high

amounts of H2

• Risk of flashbacks for high amounts of

H2

• Larger fuel flows to be handled in fuel

system

• Change of explosion risk characteristics

• Requirement to use a standard fuel for

startup and shutdown (for 100% H2)

• Higher flame temperature/velocity

• Lower Wobbe index (40.6 vs. 48.5

MJ/Nm3) > larger volumes for same

energy content

• Different behavior of hydrogen/air

mixtures compared to gas/air

• Unstable flame for very low loads

Physics of burning hydrogen in a gas turbine compared to methane

Differences of using hydrogen and natural gas as fuel in gas turbines

Resulting effects to be managed

with H2

w/o H2

flame location closer to the burner



2011

20152018

2023+2030+

Silyzer portfolio scales up by factor 10 every 4-5 years driven

by market demand and co-developed with our customers

Silyzer 100

Lab-scale demo

~4.500 op.h1,

~150k Nm³ of H2

Silyzer 300

Biggest PEM cell in the world

built by Siemens!

First investigations

in cooperation with

chemical industryNext generation

Under development

Silyzer 200

~86.500 op.h

~7.3 mio Nm³ of H2

World’s largest Power-to-Gas

plants with PEM electrolyzers

in 2015 and 2017

built by Siemens!

Silyzer portfolio roadmap

1) op.h.: operating hours; Data op.h & Nm³ as of Jan. 2019

Documents

Role of Gas in Future Sustainable Energy Systems · Page 10 2019-05-16 Sweden Gasdagarna –European Gas Supply PG ST Siemens Hydrogen Gas Turbines for our sustainable future