Role of Science in Global Climate Change Policy, Environmental Security, and Sustainability

Role of Science in Global Climate Change Policy, Environmental Security, and Sustainability

Richard A. Marston Department of Geography Kansas State University

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Climate Change and Conflict •  Climate change issues in HKH region

–  Temperature: heat waves, change in growing season –  Precipitation: timing, extremes, variability –  Glacier changes water supply, GLOFs –  Permafrost melt land surface instability, changes to

springs/rivers/lakes and surface water

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Climate Change and Conflict •  Climate change issues in HKH region (cont.)

–  Agricultural yields –  Engineering responses: reservoirs, transfer schemes –  Develop strains of crops that are most resistant to

climate stress

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Climate Change and Conflict •  Climate change issues in HKH region (cont.)

–  Himalayan hydropower potential •  40% of Nepal population has no access to electricity

–  Estimated 80,000 MW of untapped hydropower

–  only 700 MW harvested so far

•  Bhutan only using 390 MW (1.3%) of 30,000 MW potential •  China & India looking to develop Himalayan hydropower

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Environmental Security

•  What turns a climate change issue into an environmental security issue? –  Threat posed by environmental event to individuals,

communities, nations –  Esp. when problem crosses international borders

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•  As of late 2011, 33-50% of population in South Asia countries reported to be food insecure –  Due in part to flood, drought, environmental

emergencies (World Food Programme 2011)

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•  Number of disasters in South Asia (1900-2010) dominated by floods

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•  People killed/event in last 30 years in South Asia dominated by earthquakes (2005 Kashmir), coastal storms

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•  Water treaties effective at reducing conflict, but do not incorporate climate change –  Proposed dam & diversions by China on Tsangpo

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•  Indus River Treaty 1960 •  Data exchange, but tensions

remain (Wuller Barrage) •  Does not include

Afghanistan (Kabul River à Indus)

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–  Nepal has 4 water treaties with India •  Kosi River agreements 1954, 1966, 1978 •  Gandak Power Project 1959

–  Ganges River Treaty (India-Bangladesh) does not include Nepal

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•  Future climate extremes (IPCC 2012) –  Heat waves will increase in most regions –  Heavy precipitation events will increase –  Tropical cyclone wind speeds will increase but

frequency of cyclones may remain unchanged –  Coastal damage from sea level rise –  Climate extremes water systems, population

mobility & relocation

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Science and Environmental Security

•  Very few people in international relations have a deep understanding of science –  Excited about ideas…don’t want explanation –  Ask “will it work?”

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•  Himalayan climate change response of snow/ice/monsoons human and water security –  Impact of these changes remain uncertain, but will

vary… •  geographically: east-west, and high-low elevation •  season-to-season, year-to-year

–  Limited capacity of communities to adjust to changes in…

•  quantity/timing of water supply •  droughts & floods •  glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs)

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•  Siachen Glacier: “World’s Highest Battleground” –  Eastern Karakoram

Range •  Just NE of point where Line

of Control between India and Pakistan ends

•  Longest glacier in Karakoram •  Elevations 18,875 ft. to

11,875 ft.

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Science and Environmental Security •  Siachen Glacier

–  India & Pakistan claim soverignty over Siachen region

•  India has held control since 1984 •  More soldiers have died from exposure than from combat •  Dumping of non-biodegradable waste, arms & ammunition à

Nubra River à Shyok River à enters Indus River near Skardu (used for drinking & irrigation

•  Glacier shrinking rapidly

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•  7 April 2012: 138 Pakistani soldiers and civilians killed by ice-rock avalanche

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•  Proposal to DoS by Sandia Labs to designate the area a World Peace Park: “Siachen Science Center” “

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•  Address issues of climate change policy and environmental security with “best available science” or “sound science” –  Seek decisions that are objective and unbiased –  Need to recognize that science is not static

•  Science is a process, not an outcome or product •  Ongoing consultation is desirable •  Best available science is often inconclusive or incomplete


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•  Assess data accuracy –  What kinds of data and amounts of data must be

collected to assess… •  climate change? •  mitigation activities?

–  How long will it take to have confidence that an action is or is not working?

–  Are adequate experimental designs being used to answer specific questions, or are data being collected based on other constraints?


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•  What is the threshold on certainty before agency should act? –  Not the same as burden of proof within scientific

community (e.g., 95%) –  Agencies should act when they are “not likely” to

cause adverse effects


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•  Science is not the only basis for policy formation!

•  Other criteria –  Economics > Politics > Science –  Common sense –  Trial and error (incrementalism) –  Professional rubrics, accepted practices –  Direct experience, beliefs, tradition –  Voting –  Lawsuits


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•  Ability to build resilience in HKH communities is limited by –  Communities most affected are not engaged

•  Involve the stakeholders –  Example: High Mountain Glacial Watershed Program

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•  Bridge Fund: “Climate Change—Impacts on the Tibetan Plateau”

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“One of the marks of the value of a scholarly discipline is the extent to which it has something to say about matters of social significance”

–  Saul Cohen, 1990


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Communicating Science

•  Climate change skeptics •  Scientific skepticism is healthy, in general •  “Climate change denial” is different

•  Vigorously criticize any evidence for climate change, esp. if it involves human

•  Embrace any arument, op-ed, blog, article that refutes climate change

•  Exercise: points and counterpoints www.skepticalscience.comm/argument.php

Documents

Role of Science in Global Climate Change Policy, Environmental Security, and Sustainability