Upload
steve-roman
View
128
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
1
Discussion Outline
• Introduction
• Speed in the Thoroughbred
• The classification of aptitudinal type
• The expression of aptitudinal type
• Aptitudinal type and the American classic horse
• Q & A
22011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference
September 2011, Lexington, KY
Expressions of speed:
• Speed over a distance
(e.g., 8f in 1:35.0)
• Average speed
(e.g., 55.58 feet-per-second)
• Fractional speed and pace
(e.g., :22.0, :46.1, 1:10.3, 1:35.0)
(e.g., :24.0, :47.3, 1:11.1, 1:35.0)
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
Speed in the Thoroughbred
3
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
4
What is stamina?
Merriam-Webster dictionary: “the ability to sustain a
prolonged stressful effort or activity”
Prolonged and stressful are relative terms
Routes are more prolonged than sprints (distance)
Sprints are more stressful than routes (pace)
Speed in the Thoroughbred
Observations on stamina:
• Speed over the distance or winning at a long
distance?
• The opposite side of the “class” coin from speed
• Speed or stamina is always sacrificed for the other
• Stamina’s importance is determined by culture
• Danny Perlsweig, trainer of champion Lord Avie,
once noted that a horse can get any distance if you
give it enough time
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
Speed in the Thoroughbred
5
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
DISTANCE (FURLONGS) RECORD HOLDER RECORD TIME PREDICTED TIME SPEED (FPS)6.00 Twin Sparks 1:06.49 1:06.38 59.567.00 Rich Cream/Time to Explode 1:19.40 1:19.28 58.198.00 Dr. Fager/Najran 1:32.20 1:32.18 57.278.50 Hoedown’s Day 1:38.40 1:38.63 57.019.00 Simply Majestic 1:45.00 1:45.08 56.57
10.00 Spectacular Bid 1:57.80 1:57.98 56.0312.00 Secretariat 2:24.00 2:23.78 55.00
Correlation Coefficient = 0.99998
Record Time = 12.90 x Distance - 11.02
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Tim
e (
seco
nd
s)
Distance (furlongs)
North American Dirt Records (2010)
The Genetic “Frontier of Speed”
Speed in the Thoroughbred (2010)
6
• It is a visualization of the current state of Thoroughbred speed
• No single horse can hold all records because of variation in
aptitudinal type
• Record holders are part of the same gene pool but differ in such
things as biomechanical properties and/or cardiovascular
characteristics
• The line represents the current evolutionary limit of speed
• Records will continue to be broken and linearity will be retained
while the “Frontier of Speed” shifts
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY 7
Speed in the ThoroughbredThe significance of time-distance linearity
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Tim
e (
seco
nd
s)
Distance (furlongs)
North American Dirt Records (1976)
Record Time = 12.82 x Distance – 9.95
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
DISTANCE (FURLONGS) RECORD HOLDER RECORD TIME PREDICTED TIME SPEED (FPS)6.00 Grey Papa 1:07.20 1.06.95 58.937.00 Triple Bend 1:19.80 1:19.77 57.898.00 Dr. Fager 1:32.20 1:32.59 57.278.50 Swaps 1:39.00 1:39.00 56.679.00 Secretariat 1:45.40 1:45.41 56.36
10.00 Noor/Quack 1:58.20 1:58.22 55.8412.00 Secretariat 2:24.00 2:23.86 55.00
Correlation Coefficient = 0.99997
The Genetic “Frontier of Speed”
Speed in the Thoroughbred (1976)
8
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
9
Record Time = 12.90 x Distance - 11.02
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Tim
e (
seco
nd
s)
Distance (furlongs)
North American Dirt Records (2010)
Correlation Coefficient = 0.99998
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Tim
e (
seco
nd
s)
Distance (furlongs)
North American Dirt Records (1976)
Record Time = 12.82 x Distance – 9.95
Correlation Coefficient = 0.99997
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
10
79.40
81.40
83.40
85.40
87.40
89.40
91.40
93.40
95.40
97.40
7.00 7.10 7.20 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60 7.70 7.80 7.90 8.00 8.10 8.20 8.30 8.40 8.50
Tim
e (
seco
nd
s)
Distance (furlongs)
The Evolving Genetic Frontier of Speed
2010
1976
Measuring Aptitudinal Type Using Dosage
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
What contemporary Dosage methodology is not:
• A breeding theory
• A handicapping system
• A betting scheme for the Kentucky Derby
Dosage is a methodology applied to large populations of Thoroughbreds for classifying pedigrees by aptitudinal type and, as a research tool, correlating that type with real-world track performance.
11
Lt. Col. J. J. Vuillier – France, early 20th century (Les Croisements Rationnels dans la Race Pure)
• Observed over 10-20 year time frames that very few stallions (“chefs-de-race") appear with great frequency in extended Thoroughbred pedigrees of Europe’s best runners
• Applied a diminishing influence in successively remote generations
• Found over time a constant percentage of inheritance from each chef-de-race
• The percentages "fixed" the breed and those percentages represented the goal of proposed matings
• Theory used in the breeding program of H. H. Aga Khan
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
12
A Brief History of Dosage
Dr. Franco Varola – Italy, mid-20th century (Typology of the Race Horse; Functional Development of the Thoroughbred)
• Shifted the emphasis from a quantitative (Vuillier) analysis to a qualitative (aptitudinal) analysis using an expanded list of chefs-de-race in which all generations are treated equally
• Grouped sires by aptitudes defining qualities of “essence or character” passed on at stud
• Focused on the “type” of horse resulting from the combined influence of his chefs-de-race where “type” is best understood in terms of structural and physiological differences between, for example, Sea-Bird II and Tudor Minstrel.
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
13
A Brief History of Dosage
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
Contemporary Dosage Methodology (Dosage: Pedigree and Performance):
• Retains the concept of relatively few defining ancestors
• Fuses the quantitative and qualitative aspects of Vuillier and Varola.
• Emphasizes the influence of inherited prepotent speed
• Makes the analysis more accessible by limiting it to four generations
• Includes statistical methods to facilitate interpretation and to observe patterns
There are five aptitudinal groups aligning with positions on the speed spectrum:
Speed “Stamina”
Speed at shorter distances Speed at longer distances
BRILLIANT INTERMEDIATE CLASSIC SOLID PROFESSIONAL2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
A Brief History of Dosage
14
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
15
A Brief History of DosageContemporary Dosage Methodology
Every chef-de-race is assigned a predictable aptitudinal type based on the real-world performance of his descendants
The contribution to type of a chef-de-race declines with each succeeding remote generation
The result is a Dosage Profile (DP) in the format:
B Points - I Points - C Points - S Points - P Points (e.g, Zenyatta, DP 6-3-14-1-0)
The Dosage Index (DI) is the speed/stamina ratio (e.g., Zenyatta, DI 2.00)
The Center of Distribution (CD) is the point along the speed spectrum corresponding to the combined influence of all chefs-de-race in the pedigree (e.g., Zenyatta, CD 0.58)
For both the DI and CD, the higher the number the greater the shift to speed.
Speed “Stamina”
Speed at shorter distances Speed at longer distances
BRILLIANT INTERMEDIATE CLASSIC SOLID PROFESSIONAL2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
16
Sire Pedigree/Racing Career vs Stud Performance
SLEWPY’S PEDIGREE: KINGMAMBO’S PEDIGREE:
By Seattle Slew By Mr. Prospector
Triple Crown winner; Classic sire Sprinter; Sire of sprinter/milers
Out of Rare Bouquet Out of Miesque
Dam of SWs at 8 1/2f, 9f and 10f Two-time BC Mile winner
SLEWPY’S RACE RECORD: KINGMAMBO’S RACE RECORD:
At 2: 1st Young America S (G1); 8 1/2f At 3: 1st Poule d’Essai des Poulains (Fr-1), 8f
At 3: 1st Meadowlands Cup (G1); 10f At 3: 1st Prix Du Moulin de Longchamp (Fr-1); 8f
At 3: 1st Paterson H (G2); 9f At 3: 1st St. James Palace S (Eng-1); 8f
SWs BY SLEWPY: SWs BY KINGMAMBO:
66% stakes wins under a mile 5% stakes wins under a mile
AWD 7.07f AWD 8.95f
SIRE AWD AS RUNNER (F) AWD AS SIRE (F) DIFFERENCE (F)MARQUETRY 9.07 6.65 -2.42LOST CODE 8.91 7.06 -1.85THEATRICAL 11.00 9.23 -1.77IN EXCESS 8.94 7.63 -1.31SLEW O' GOLD 9.88 8.64 -1.24CRYPTOCLEARANCE 9.38 8.29 -1.09TABASCO CAT 9.40 8.32 -1.08AWESOME AGAIN 9.50 8.44 -1.06GULCH 7.00 8.01 1.01CITY ZIP 6.13 7.35 1.22DISTORTED HUMOR 7.10 8.39 1.29CHIEF'S CROWN 8.20 9.60 1.40MORE THAN READY 5.92 7.55 1.63
Track Performance vs Stud Performance for Some Prominent Sires(5+ Stakes Wins as a Runner and 30+ Progeny Stakes Wins)
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
17
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
18
CATEGORY AWD ADI ACDALL RACES 8.10 3.25 0.71BY SURFACE:DIRT 7.76 3.56 0.77SYNTHETIC 7.85 2.76 0.69TURF 8.83 2.57 0.58
BY GENERAL DISTANCE:<8F 6.27 4.01 0.848 TO 10F 8.68 2.94 0.67>10F 11.78 2.11 0.46
BY AGE:2YO 7.22 3.65 0.793YO 8.16 3.22 0.72OLDER 8.27 3.14 0.69
BY SEX:MALE 8.21 3.23 0.71FEMALE 7.94 3.23 0.71
BY GRADE:G1 9.08 2.80 0.64G2 8.57 2.97 0.67G3 8.24 3.09 0.70UNGRADED 7.63 3.50 0.75
Summary Dosage Data (1983-2010)
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
19
CATEGORY ADI ACDALL RACES 3.25 0.71BY SPECIFIC DISTANCE:
5.50F 4.05 0.826.00F 4.29 0.876.50F 3.78 0.827.00F 3.76 0.828.00F 3.01 0.698.32F 3.31 0.738.50F 3.06 0.699.00F 2.87 0.649.50F 2.52 0.57
10.00F 2.51 0.5711.00F 2.11 0.4812.00F 2.04 0.43
Summary Dosage Data (1983-2010)
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
20
DI= -0.36xDistance + 6.13
Correlation Coefficient = 0.95
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Avera
ge D
I
Distance (furlongs)
Average DI vs Distance
North American Open Stakes, 1983-2010
CD = -0.07xDistance + 1.28
Correlation Coefficient = 0.97
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 12.00 13.00
Avera
ge C
D
Distance (furlongs)
Average CD vs Distance
North American Open Stakes, 1983-2010
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
21
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
22
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00
Avera
ge C
D
Distance (furlongs)
Avg. CD vs Distance(North America, Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, Japan & South Africa
Linear (Australia)
Linear (Europe)
Linear (Hong Kong)
Linear (Japan)
Linear (North America
(Dirt))
Australia
Europe
Hong Kong
Japan
North America (Dirt)
North America (Turf)
South Africa
The Universality of Dosage
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
23
Generic Aptitudinal Types
Distance: Sprint Route
Generic Aptitudinal Types
Distance: Sprint Route
Surface: Dirt Turf Dirt Turf
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
24
Generic Aptitudinal Types
Distance: Sprint Route
Surface: Dirt Turf Dirt Turf
Maturity: Early Late Early Late Early Late Early Late
SDE SDL STE STL RDE RDL RTE RTL
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
25
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
26
DP PATTERN SYMBOL ACD %SPR %TURF %2YODOMINANT APTITUDE P>B,I,S,C -0.56 14.7% 55.3% 7.6%CLASSIC (C) PTS C>20 0.46 13.5% 50.8% 8.1%"DOWN-THE-LADDER" B>I>C>S>P 1.11 45.7% 18.6% 15.2%"TRIPLE ZERO" I=0,S=0,P=0 0.94 35.9% 32.2% 16.5%
"WING" BREEDING B,P>I,C,S 0.18 26.7% 41.7% 7.5%
ALL PATTERNS 0.71 31.3% 31.2% 13.0%
Extreme DP PatternsDosage Profile patterns for the highest and lowest percentage of:
sprint SWs (%SPR),
turf SWs (%TURF) and
juvenile SWs (%2YO)
They represent the extremes of aptitudinal type in the distance,
surface and maturity sub-categories
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance Conference September 2011, Lexington, KY
27
Dosage and Aptitudinal TypeAPTITUDINAL TYPE TRAITS ACD
%SPR↑ 1.11EARLY-DEVELOPING DIRT SPRINTERS (SDE) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 1.05
%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↑ 1.11
LATE-DEVELOPING DIRT SPRINTERS (SDL) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 1.02%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↑ 1.11
EARLY-DEVELOPING TURF SPRINTERS (STE) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.83%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↑ 1.11
LATE-DEVELOPING TURF SPRINTERS (STL) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.66%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↓ 0.46
EARLY-DEVELOPING DIRT ROUTERS (RDE) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 0.75%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↓ 0.46
LATE-DEVELOPING DIRT ROUTERS (RDL) %T↓ 1.11 Avg CD = 0.65%2YO↓ 0.18%SPR↓ 0.46
EARLY-DEVELOPING TURF ROUTERS (RTE) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.53%2YO↑ 0.94%SPR↓ 0.46
LATE-DEVELOPING TURF ROUTERS (RTL) %T↑ -0.56 Avg CD = 0.32%2YO↓ 0.18
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
28
Northern Prospect 7688% SPR, 4% TURF, 27% 2YO
Mr. Prospector 70 (BC)
Raise a Native 61 (B)Native Dancer 50 (IC)
Raise You 46
Gold Digger 62Nashua 52 (IC)
Sequence 46
Sleek Dancer 68
Northern Dancer 61 (BC)Nearctic 54
Natalma 57
Victorine 62My Babu 45 (B)
Pandora 47
Fortunate Bid 71
Lucky Debonair 6264% SPR, 5% TURF, 9% 2YO
Vertex 54The Rhymer 38
Kanace 45
Fresh As Fresh 57Count Fleet 40 (C)
Airy 45
Biddy Big 66
Palestinian 46Dolly Whisk 36
Gemma
Spoony 52Devil Diver 39
Bimlette 44
Fortunate Prospect, dkb/br.h., 1981DP 12-2-10-0-0, DI 3.80, CD 1.08Won sprint stakes at 2, 3, 4 and 5
A model SDE type
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
29
His Majesty 68 (C)2% SPR, 63% TURF, 4% 2YO
Ribot 52 (CP)
Tenerani 44Bellini 37
Tofanella 31
Romanella 43El Greco 34
Barbara Burrini 37
Flower Bowl 52
Alibhai 38 (C)Hyperion 30 (BC)
Teresina 20
Flower Bed 46Beau Pere 27
Boudoir 38
Aletta Maria 85
Diesis 8011% SPR, 89% TURF, 0% 2YO
Sharpen Up 69 (BC)Atan 61
Rocchetta 61
Doubly Sure 71Reliance 62 (SP)
Soft Angels 63
Pharlette 80
Pharly 74Lyphard 69 (C)
Comely 66
Gantlette 74Run The Gantlet 68 (P)
Her Honor 54
Cetewayo, b.h., 1994DP 3-0-29-1-7, DI 0.78, CD -0.23
Won turf marathon stakes at 4, 5, 6 and 8A model RTL type
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
CATEGORY ADI ACD PTSKENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS, 1983-2011 (29) 2.84 0.66 26.34HORSE OF THE YEAR, 1983-2010 (28) 2.83 0.77 24.93 LEADING EARNERS, 1983-2010 (28) 2.70 0.66 28.00 PERFORMANCE HORSES (85) 2.82 0.70 26.39LEADING SIRES, 1983-2010 (28) 3.13 0.79 39.50 LEADING BROODMARE SIRES, 1983-2010 (28) 2.64 0.60 43.79 KENTUCKY BROODMARES OF THE YEAR, 1983-2010 (28) 3.50 0.64 36.96 BREEDING HORSES (84) 3.05 0.67 39.69
TOTAL ELITE (169) 2.92 0.68 33.02
OPEN STAKES WINNERS, 1983-2010 (25,926) 3.25 0.71 23.82
Dosage Figures for ElitePerformance and Breeding Thoroughbreds Since 1983
Elite breeding horses have about 50% more total points in their Dosage Profile
30
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Dis
trib
uti
on
DI Range
DI Distribution Among Open SWs Since 1983
DI<2.00 DI>4.00
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
31
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Dis
trib
uti
on
DI Range
DI Distribution Among Steeplechase Champions Since 1948
DI<2.00 DI>4.00
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
32
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
1 2 3 4 5
Dis
trib
uti
on
DI Range
DI Distribution Among Open SWs and Steeplechase Champions Since 1948
Open SWs
Steeplechase Champions
DI<2.00 DI>4.00
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
33
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Avera
ge D
I an
d A
bera
ge D
ista
nce
Number of Races
Moving Average of DI and Distance for Juvenile Races
Throughout the Year (1983-2010)
Distance
DI
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
34
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
35
DI = 0.032 x Year - 61.66
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
DI of
Derb
y W
inn
er
Year
DI vs Year for Kentucky Derby Winners
CD = 0.012 x Year - 22.95
-1.00
-0.75
-0.50
-0.25
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
CD
of
Derb
y W
inn
er
Year
CD vs Year for Kentucky Derby Winners
Dual Qualifiers
Strict Definition (for the purpose of statistical analysis):
A three-year-old with a DI of 4.00 or less which was
weighted within 10 pounds of the EFH highweight or
was named champion in another country at two.
Conceptual Definition (expressing aptitudinal type):
A three-year-old notionally bred to stay a classic distance
and which demonstrated extraordinary ability as a two-
year-old (i.e., a pedigree for distance; inherent high
class; early maturity).
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
36
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
YEARS DERBY PREAKNESS BELMONT ALL TC RACES
2010-2019DQ WINNERS 50.0% 100.0% 0.0% 50.0%
IV 1.77 3.00 0.00 1.85
2000-2009DQ WINNERS 11.1% 42.9% 60.0% 33.3%
IV 0.61 1.87 3.20 1.72
1990-1999DQ WINNERS 55.6% 66.7% 60.0% 60.7%
IV 2.17 3.47 3.00 2.77
1980-1989DQ WINNERS 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 50.0%
IV 4.15 1.45 3.71 3.08
1973-1979DQ WINNERS 100.0% 71.4% 57.1% 76.2%
IV 5.05 2.67 2.81 3.34
1973-2011DQ WINNERS 59.5% 50.0% 54.5% 54.8%
IV 2.80 2.46 3.09 2.73
Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973
37
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973
TC RACE DQs $BET $WON $PROFIT ROIDERBY 135 270.00 367.20 97.20 36%PREAKNESS 67 134.00 130.60 -3.40 -3%BELMONT 64 128.00 256.90 128.90 101%ALL SINCE 1973 266 532.00 754.70 222.70 42%
38
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
Dual Qualifiers in Triple Crown Races Since 1973
TC RACE DQs $BET $WON $PROFIT ROIDERBY 135 270.00 367.20 97.20 36%PREAKNESS 67 134.00 130.60 -3.40 -3%BELMONT 64 128.00 256.90 128.90 101%ALL SINCE 1973 266 532.00 754.70 222.70 42%
ALL SINCE 1990 152 304.00 435.50 131.50 43%
39
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE DERBY1973-1989 1990-2011
Races 17 20DQ Wins 15 7%DQ Wins 88.2% 35.0%DQ Starters 54 83All Starters 267 378%DQ Starters 20.2% 22.0%IV 4.37 1.59
40
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE DERBY1973-1989 1990-2011
Races 17 20DQ Wins 15 7%DQ Wins 88.2% 35.0%DQ Starters 54 83All Starters 267 378%DQ Starters 20.2% 22.0%IV 4.37 1.59
DUAL QUALIFIERS IN THE PREAKNESS & BELMONT1973-1989 1990-2011
Races 34 33DQ Wins 16 19%DQ Wins 47.1% 57.6%DQ Starters 53 72All Starters 308 350%DQ Starters 17.2% 20.6%IV 2.74 2.80
41
“Conceptual Dual Qualifiers” As Juveniles
• Winning Colors – was 2-for-2, handily defeating eventual
champion Epitome in first start; maintained form as early three-
year-old.
• Sunday Silence – broke maiden by 6 in 1:09.2 then lost by a head to
the Derby winter book favorite; also maintained form at three.
• Grindstone – broke maiden in June with best juvenile speed figure
until October and was injured in stakes debut; returned to form at
three.
• Funny Cide – competing in state-bred races, earned 4th best juvenile
Beyer speed figure; reproduced form in open company early at
three.
• Smarty Jones – also competing in state-bred races, earned highest
juvenile Beyer speed figure and remained undefeated through the
Preakness.
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
42
General Aptitudinal Type of Derby WinnersSince 1981
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
43
DI<2 DI>=2 DI<2 and 4th or Better in Final Prep
% Wins 42 58 42
IV 1.5 0.8 1.8
% ROI -3 -46 +20
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
DI<3 DI=3+Mean 110.2 106.8Observations 10 11P(T<=t) two-tail 0.05
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
44
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117
DI
BSF
Kentucky Derby Winner DI vs BSF (1991-2011)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
-80 -75 -70 -65 -60 -55 -50 -45 -40
DI
PF
Kentucky Derby Winner DI vs PF (1995-2011)
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
45
DI<3 DI=3+Mean -64.9 -54.3Observations 8 9P(T<=t) two-tail 0.03
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
46
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
CD
Year
Derby Winner CD by Year
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
BSF
Year
Derby Winner BSF by Year
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
47
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Avera
ge D
I
Finish Position
Kentucky Derby Average DI by Order of Finish (1946-
2011)
t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Unequal Variances
Finish 1-3 Finish 10+Mean DI 2.57 3.05
Observations 196 439
P(T<=t) two-tail 0.03
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
48
Final Comments
• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general
performance type as defined by distance, racing surface
and age.
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
49
Final Comments
• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general
performance type as defined by distance, racing surface
and age.
• Aptitudinal type can be measured using Dosage, a
pedigree classification method based on the speed
inherited from aptitudinally prepotent sires relatively
close up in a Thoroughbred pedigree.
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY
50
Final Comments
• Aptitudinal type correlates universally with general
performance type as defined by distance, racing surface
and age.
• Aptitudinal type can be measured using Dosage, a
pedigree classification method based on the speed
inherited from aptitudinally prepotent sires relatively
close up in a Thoroughbred pedigree.
• The aptitudinal type of contemporary American
classic horses is unique (early maturity, breeding for
distance and exceptional class from the start of their
racing career) and distinguishes them from the majority
of their peers.
2011 Thoroughbred Pedigree, Genetics & Performance ConferenceSeptember 2011, Lexington, KY