ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS ... · FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS & STRATEGY UPDATE LONDON, JANUARY 31 2013 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC ... Qatar: Pearl GTL Oman: Qarn

Copyright of Royal Dutch Shell plc 31 January 2013 1

FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS & STRATEGY UPDATE

LONDON, JANUARY 31 2013

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

DELIVERING COMPETITIVE & INNOVATIVE PERFORMANCE


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P and 2C definitions. Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact. The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this announcement "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Royal Dutch Shell" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this announcement refer to companies in which Shell either directly or indirectly has control, by having either a majority of the voting rights or the right to exercise a controlling influence. The companies in which Shell has significant influence but not control are referred to as "associated companies" or "associates" and companies in which Shell has joint control are referred to as "jointly controlled entities". In this announcement, associates and jointly controlled entities are also referred to as "equity-accounted investments". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect (for example, through our 23 per cent shareholding in Woodside Petroleum Ltd.) ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This announcement contains forward looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell and the Shell Group. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell and the Shell Group to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and the Shell Group and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. All forward looking statements contained in this announcement are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. Additional factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell's 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2011 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These factors also should be considered by the reader. Each forward looking statement speaks only as of the date of this announcement, 31 January 2013. Neither Shell nor any of its subsidiaries nor the Shell Group undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward looking statements contained in this announcement. Shell may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this announcement that the SEC strictly prohibits Shell from including in its filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in Shell's Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. You can also obtain these forms from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330.

DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE


ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS Maintaining our long term focus; managing short-term headwinds 2012 reported CCS earnings $27 billion, total CFFO $46 billion; delivering growth Expected Q1 2013 dividend increase 4.7%, $0.45 per share, reflecting growth momentum GROWTH DELIVERY 12 billion boe resources on stream + 20 billion boe in development funnel Exploration & deals add ~4 billion boe resources potential 2012 Growth priority: integrated gas, deep-water, resources plays

CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD 2010-12 start-ups reach >10% of 2012 CFFO & ~20% of 2012 production; more to come Robust 2013-17 project flow Strong build in optionality - capital constraints driving hard portfolio choices

RECONFIRMING OUR GROWTH AGENDA


‘GOAL ZERO’ ON SAFETY injuries – TRCF/million working hours million working hours

ENERGY INTENSITY - REFINERIES Energy Intensity Index (EEITM)

SPILLS - OPERATIONAL Volume in thousand tonnes

FOCUS ON SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY 2012 UPDATE

HSSE PRIORITY PERFORMANCE + TRANSPARENCY

Working hours TRCF


ROBUST LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTALS ENERGY DEMAND OUTLOOK

million boe/d

MANAGING SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY $/bbl $ per unit of measurement

ENERGY MARKET

Brent (LHS) WTI (LHS)

Henry Hub $/mmbtu (RHS)

Oil Gas Biomass Wind

Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Solar

Shell activities

Weighted average refining margin $/bbl (RHS)

Western Canada Select (LHS)


TOTAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT

$ billion

UPSTREAM Growth strategy; price upside Priority: deep-water, integrated gas, resources plays DOWNSTREAM Optimize re-shaped portfolio Selective growth CLIMATE CHANGE Grow gas and biofuels CCS and energy efficiency FINANCIAL OUTLOOK Investing for growth and competitive payout Through-cycle returns and risk management

STRATEGY AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION

SUSTAINED INVESTMENT: ~80% UPSTREAM

Europe Africa, Middle East, CIS

Asia Pacific Americas

Upstream Downstream + Corporate Acquisitions Divestments

DS + Corp.


RECONFIRMING OUR OUTLOOK

2012 OUTLOOK

Cash flow from operations $46 billion ($43 billion ex W/C)

2012-15: $175-200 billion

Net capex $30 billion 2012-15: $120-130 billion

Dividends distributed $10.8 billion 2013 >$11 billion

Oil and gas production outcome 3.3 million boe/d 2017/18: ~4.0 million boe/d

Gearing 9% 0-30%

NO CHANGE TO SHELL’S AMBITIOUS TARGETS DIVIDEND INCREASE REFLECTS DELIVERY EXPECTED STRONG PROJECT PIPELINE AND OPTIONS CAPITAL CEILING DRIVES HARD CHOICES

CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/bbl Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements


EARNINGS $ billion CCS

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS $ billion

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN

TSR is averaged across year-end. Source: Datastream

VOLUMES million boe per day million tonnes per annum

Oil + Gas production volumes

2010-2012 asset sales

LNG sales volumes

IMPROVING OUR PERFORMANCE

Other majors

Upstream Downstream

Corporate 2010 2011 2012

Shell

Divestments/other

+45%

+ ~70%


UPSTREAM FACILITIES COMPONENT COST (IPA) BENCHMARK QUARTILE

UNPLANNED DOWNTIME: DOWNSTREAM %

Oil Products Chemicals

LNG RELIABILITY %

OPERATIONAL EXCELLENCE

IMPROVING ASSET UPTIME MANAGING COSTS

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q


FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: ~20 START-UPS 2010-12 $ billion

million boe per day

Cash flow Organic capex

2010-12 TRACK RECORD

North America: tight gas

Norway: Gjoa

Canada: AOSP-1

Singapore: Chemicals

Nigeria: Gbaran Ubie Ph1

USA: Perdido

Netherlands: Schoonebeek

Qatar: Qatargas 4 LNG

Qatar: Pearl GTL

Oman: Qarn Alam

Iraq:West Qurna

NA: tight gas

Australia Pluto LNG T1

2010

2011

2012

Production (RHS)

2012 IMPACT FROM 10-12 PROJECTS >10% OF GROUP CFFO ~20% OF PRODUCTION

FURTHER GROWTH POTENTIAL

Brasil: Raízen

CFFO and capex outlook at $100 Brent

Qatar + AOSP-1 CFFO impact

Qatar: Pearl GTL ramp-up

USA: Caesar Tonga Ph 1 Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap (early production)

Oman: Harweel

Raízen

Qatar: Pearl GTL

START-UPS 2010-12

Malaysia: Gumusut-Kakap

NA: tight gas/shales Eagle Ford


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Q4 + 2012 RESULTS SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER


EARNINGS Q4 2011 TO Q4 2012 $ billion

Q4 AND 2012 FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

FY 2011 FY 2012

UPSTREAM 20.6 20.0

DOWNSTREAM (CCS) 4.3 5.3

BUSINESS SEGMENTS TOTAL 24.9 25.3

CORPORATE & MINORITIES (0.2) (0.2)

CCS NET EARNINGS 24.7 25.1

BASIC CCS EARNINGS, $ PER SHARE 3.97 4.02

CASH FROM OPERATIONS 36.8 46.1

SHARE BUY BACKS 1.1 1.5

DIVIDENDS 10.5 10.8

DIVIDEND, $ PER SHARE 1.68 1.72

Earnings CCS basis; earnings and EPS excluding identified items

EARNINGS 2011-12 $ billion


Net Debt Gearing (RHS)

CASH GENERATION $ billion $ billion

Cash flow from operations Asset sales

Acquisitions Capex + equity acc. investments

STRONG BALANCE SHEET $ billion

DIVIDEND TRACK RECORD $ billion

$ billion

Dividends declared

FTSE 100 total dividends paid (RHS)

CASH FLOW AND PAYOUT

Gearing range

STRONG BALANCE SHEET

GENERATING SURPLUS CASH

SUSTAINED DIVIDEND PERFORMANCE

Sources Uses Sources Uses

Dividend and buyback

UP STREAM

DOWN STREAM

UP STREAM

DOWN STREAM

2010-12 2012

CFFO excluding working capital movements


DIVESTMENTS 2010-2012 ACQUISITIONS 2010-2012

GROWTH OIL + GAS: Resources plays Increased stakes in Shell fields New exploration acreage

SELECTIVE GROWTH DOWNSTREAM: Brazil biofuels, retail, Gasnor gas to transport

REFOCUSED DOWNSTREAM: Europe; Africa; Latin-America

LATE LIFE/NON-STRATEGIC UPSTREAM: Upstream ~130 kboe/d Strategic partnering

WORKING OUR PORTFOLIO FOR GROWTH & CAPITAL EFFICIENCY

Upstream Downstream

Upstream Downstream

Permian, USA

Beryl, UK Holstein, Gulf of Mexico

Onshore assets, Nigeria


2010-12 RESERVES ADDITIONS

2012 RESERVES PERFORMANCE 2012 RRR 44% 2010-12 RRR 84% Reserves life at end 2012 ~ 11

years 2010-12 RESERVES AVG. PERFORMANCE Organic2 additions ~ 4.2

billion boe Production ~ 3.7 billion boe Organic reserves replacement

115%

SEC PROVED RESERVES POSITION

Major reserves additions

1 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders 2 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and price impacts Expected SEC proved reserves; final volumes will be reported in 2012 20-F annual report

RESERVES REPLACEMENT 2010-12 2012

ORGANIC 115% 85%

ORGANIC INCL. PRICE EFFECTS 92% 50%

SEC PROVED RESERVES (BILLION BOE) 2010 2011 2012

ORGANIC RESERVES ADDITIONS 1.7 1.5 1.0

PRODUCTION 1.2 1.2 1.2

NET RESERVES1 14.2 14.2 13.6


CONVERTING RESOURCES TO PRODUCTION…

billion boe

Capital in service Capital other

Return on capital in service (RHS) Return on capital employed (RHS)

HYDROCARBON MATURATION + RETURNS

…AND RETURNS

$ billion %

SUSTAINED PROJECT FLOW 12 BILLION BOE ON STREAM 20 BILLION BOE IN ~60 PROJECTS IN FUNNEL

Longer-term upside

Pluto (Woodside) Harweel NA tight gas/shales Eagle Ford Caesar Tonga Gumusut-Kakap (early oil)

Tempa Rossa Fram Malikai Forcados Yokri Southern Swamp AOSP debottl. NA tight gas/shales

Abadi FLNG Phase 1 Tukau Timur Zaedyus Zabazaba

2008 2009 2010 2011

On-stream Under Construction

Study Production

2012

Gbaran Ubie Ph2 Rab Harweel Erha North ph3 ML South BC-10 ph3 Eagle Ford Permian

Majnoon FCP Petai Amal Steam Kashagan Ph1 BC10 Ph2 NWS North Rankin 2 AOSP debottlenecking

2013 E


EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH % growth 2010-2012

EPS + CFPS: four quarters rolling to Q3, earnings on reported CCS basis

CAPITAL INVESTMENT $ billion

% growth 2009-2012

CASHFLOW PER SHARE GROWTH % growth 2010-2012

Dividends four quarters rolling to Q3 , payout ratio DPS declared/EPS CCS reported

COMPETITIVE PAYOUT Dividend $ billion

%

COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE

SECTOR-LEADING EARNINGS AND CASHFLOW GROWTH MAINTAINING THROUGH CYCLE INVESTMENT PACE + CAPITAL DISCIPLINE INDUSTRY-LEADING DIVIDEND + PAYOUT RATIO

2009 2010 2013E 2012 payout ratio (RHS) 2012/ target

2011


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC REFRESHING OUR GROWTH OUTLOOK PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


INVESTMENT PRIORITIES

LONGER TERM

GROWTH PRIORITY

ENGINES

Reserves-rich plays with long-term drivers Iraq, Nigeria, Kazakhstan, Heavy Oil & Arctic Slower pace + capital allocation

Integrated infrastructure + global capabilities

Standardized developments + technology

Extending cash flows through technology Focused exploration + licence renewals

Long-term engine; taking steps to enhance profitability Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets

Leveraging Shell’s scale + market growth

ORGANIC CAPEX 2013 $ billion

INVESTMENT CHOICES DRIVEN ON A GLOBAL THEMATIC BASIS MORE EFFICIENT DEPLOYMENT OF CAPITAL, PEOPLE, TECHNOLOGY

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

RESOURCES PLAYS

DEEP-WATER

INTEGRATED GAS

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM


US gas-to- chemicals

Long-term engine Cost + portfolio steps to

enhance profitability

Selective growth in chemicals, biofuels, growth markets

DOWNSTREAM ENGINE

Under development Options

Qatar chemicals

Gas-to-chemicals US

China

Singapore chemicals Raízen Port Arthur Nanhai chemicals

2006 2010 2011 2013 FUTURE

2012+ deals

Qatar chemicals

Lubes Russia

LNG to transport

Rhineland Connect

China Retail + Lubes China refining and chemicals

Gasnor acquisition

Clyde refinery conversion to terminal

Key country

Singapore Chemicals Cracker debottleneck

SADAF expansion


UPSTREAM GROWTH PORTFOLIO UNDER CONSTRUCTION

2012 FID Shell operated

Kashagan Phase1

Majnoon FCP

2017+ 0.1 mboe/d

Amal Steam

Bab THG &HB-2

Bonga North West

Forcados Yokri

Fram

Gumusut - Kakap

North Rankin 2

SAS

Southern Swamp AG

Corrib Clair Ph2

Gorgon LNG T1-3

Malikai

NWS Gas – GWF – Phase A

Sabah Gas Kebabangan (KBB)

Schiehallion Redevelopment

Tempa Rossa

Prelude

Wheatstone

AOSP debottlenecking

Eagle Ford

BC-10 phase 2

Cardamom Mars B, W.Boreas, S. Deimos

North American tight gas

North American liquids rich shales

2015-2016 0.3 mboe/d

2013-2014 0.5 mboe/d

2012 start-ups 0.2 mboe/d

DEEP-WATER

UPSTREAM ENGINE

INTEGRATED GAS

RESOURCES PLAYS


Caesar Tonga Ph 1

Pluto (Woodside)

Harweel

Start-up/ Peak Production

Production @ $80 Brent scenario

~30 PROJECTS 7 BILLION BOE

RESOURCES 0.9 MBOE/D

North American tight gas

Petai


2013-14 START-UPS 0.5 MBOE PER DAY

Kashagan Phase 1, Kazakhstan Majnoon FCP, Iraq

MarsB Olympus hull arrives in Texas, USA North Rankin, Australia

2013 EXAMPLES


Design 0.7 mboe/d

MATURING >30 NEW OPTIONS 2013+ >1MBOED POTENTIAL; 13 BILLION BOE RESOURCES

Concept Selection 0.4 mboe/d

Phase Peak Production

Bosi Field Development Geronggong

Gorgon T4 Expansion

Nigeria NLNG Train 7 Pearls - Khazar

Sunrise LNG

Tukau Timur

Zabazaba

Zaedyus

Abadi FLNG Phase 1 Arrow Energy LNG

Bokor Phase 3

Browse (BCT) LNG

Erha North Ph 3 ML South

North American Tight Gas

Rabab Harweel Integrated Project

Appomattox Bonga North

Majnoon FFD /West Qurna FFD

Vito BC-10 Massa (Phase 3)

Bonga South West

Carmon Creek Expansion Ph 1 & 2

Linnorm

Shell operated

LNG Canada North American Gas to Transport

STRONG BUILD IN OPTIONALITY

CAPITAL CONSTRAINTS DRIVING HARD CHOICES

PORTFOLIO CAN SUPPORT GROWTH TO ~2020

Production @ $80 Brent scenario

AOSP Debottlenecking

North American Liquids Rich Shales

DEEP-WATER

UPSTREAM ENGINE

INTEGRATED GAS

RESOURCES PLAYS


Gbaran Ubie Ph 2

Stones


MAXIMIZING VALUE IN OUR UPSTREAM ENGINES EXAMPLE: EUROPE UPSTREAM

Under construction

On stream

Corrib

Schiehallion Clair

Fram

Tempa Rossa

Increased stake from 36% to 55% Redevelopment

underway

Beryl + Draugen stakes increased

2012 progress

2012 FID

PRODUCTION million boe per day

Netherlands UK

Denmark Other Asset Sales 2010-12 Norway

SELECTIVE ACQUISITIONS: BERYL, SCHIEHALLION,

DRAUGEN 2012 NEW GROWTH HUBS BRENT DECOMMISSIONING

CAPEX $ billion

Draugen, North Sea, Norway


Leveraging Shell’s scale + market growth

Technology and project delivery capabilities

Potential doubling of capacity

2012: ~0.8* mboe/d; 20 mtpa LNG

INDUSTRY-LEADING INTEGRATED GAS PORTFOLIO

Green Corridor GTT

Hazira

CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion

On stream Under construction

8.2 billion boe

Study

Under construction

On stream

Liquefaction Regas Gas-to-transport GTL

North America: developing new gas value chain options

Pearl GTL Ramp up 2012

2012 progress

Australia: major growth projects under construction

SHELL GLOBAL LNG GROWTH

On stream Options Under construction 2012 ~2020+ 2007

million tonnes per annum

* includes feedgas from non-integrated ventures


Established production leadership

Standardized developments + production technology

Frontier exploration potential

2012: 0.3 mboe/d

GLOBAL DEEP-WATER LEADING IOC DEEP-WATER PORTFOLIO

Under construction On stream

New exploration

Malaysia / Brunei Gulf of Mexico

Brazil

Mars-B Cardamom

BC-10 ph2

Gumusut-Kakap Malikai Sabah Gas Kebabangan KBB Petai

CAPEX RESOURCES $ billion

On stream Under construction

3.3 billion boe

Study

Nigeria

Perdido Spar

Bonga North West


DEEP-WATER GULF OF MEXICO 0.2 MBOE/D 2012; GROWTH POTENTIAL

Auger

Mars

Ursa

Nakika

Brutus

Perdido

Vito ~100 kboe/d potential >300 million boe resources Shell 51.33% (operator) Final appraisal well underway

Appomattox ~150 kboe/d hub potential 500 million boe resources Shell 80% (operator) 2013 appraisal of Vicksburg (Shell 75%)

Stones ~60 kboe/d FPSO >250 million boe resources Shell 60% (operator, increased stake)

Caesar Tonga

Cardamom Deep

Mars-B

W.Boreas, S. Deimos

100 km

Mars-B, Olympus tension leg platform

Under construction On stream

Options

Mars B ~100 kboe/d Shell 71.5 % (operator)

Cardamom Deep ~50 kboe/d potential Shell 100% (operator) Tie – back to Auger

FID START-UP DISCOVERY

Mars B

Cardamom

Stones

Appomattox

Vito


FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES MAJOR POSITIONS IN LONGER TERM PLAYS

Under construction

On stream

AOSP debottlenecking + CCS

Heavy Oil

2012 progress

NIGERIA 2 onshore FIDs Completed $1.1 billion divestments

IRAQ Majnoon FCP 2013 Basrah Gas

Company JV 2013

CAPEX RESOURCES $ bln

On stream Under construction Study

8.1 billion boe RESOURCE RICH PLAYS LONG LEAD TIMES SLOWER DEVELOPMENT PACE + CAPITAL ALLOCATION 2012: 0.5 MBOE/D

KAZAKHSTAN Shell operatorship

post start-up 2013

SPDC PHOTO OF NEW PROJECT PLEASE. DISCO = RUST BUCKET

Forcados Yokri, Nigeria

Arctic

2013 includes ~$1 billion for Basrah Gas Company (BGC) EAI injection


2 top holes drilled

>20 vessels and 2,000 employees/contractors, ~12,000 employee rotations

Positive support from regulators + community

Kulluk rig incident

2012 ALASKA PERFORMANCE

DRILLING FLUID BLOW OUT PREVENTER

CAPPING STACK ARCTIC CONTAINMENT SYSTEM

1

1

2

2

3 4

3 4

MULTIPLE DRILLING BARRIERS

Kulluk towed to safe harbour in Kiliuda Bay, Jan. 2013 Photo credit to Unified Command

300 km


BUILDING CONVENTIONAL ACREAGE ‘000 km2 cumulative gross acreage

cumulative spend $ billion

Liquids Gas

RELOADING OUR CONVENTIONAL PORTFOLIO C

onve

ntio

nal

Engi

nes

Fron

tier

Acreage

Entry cost

2010 2011 2012

Building new acreage

RESOURCES ADDED

2007-2009

Tanzania

Nova Scotia

Greenland

Brunei DW

Albania Iraq

South Africa DW

Kalmykia New Zealand

Australia Canning

Nile Delta

Qatar (block D)

Philippines

GOM

Timan Pechora

Abadi

French Guiana

Malaysia

Turkey

UK North Sea

GOM

Yinggehai

Egypt

Benin

Brunei

billion boe

2010-2012 DELIVERY: ~5 BILLION BOE ~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS)

Abadi

Iraq Australia

Gabon

Italy

Colombia

Guyana

Libya

Norway

UK

US GoM

Tunisia

Indonesia

Alaska US GoM

Deals

Newfoundland

Browse North Sea


BUILDING UP GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN RESOURCES PLAYS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS

E&A

Changbei

Karoo Neuquen

Ukraine Turkey

Sichuan

Positive initial exploration

Germany

Egypt Oman

Colombia

On stream

Liquids rich shale

Gas Liquids Rich

Tight gas

CAPEX RESOURCES $ bln

Future potential (prospective resources)

10.6 billion boe

2012 Portfolio Build

On stream Under construction Study LRS Dry gas

BUILDING NEW TIGHT/SHALE ACREAGE

Acreage

Entry cost

RESOURCES ADDED

Liquids Gas Resources-Based Deals

2010-2012 DELIVERY: ~7 BILLION BOE ~$3/BOE (E&A+DEALS)

Permian Marcellus Eagle Ford

Arrow

billion boe

‘000 km2 cumulative gross acreage

cumulative spend $ billion

LRS

Sao Francisco Arrow

*2012 includes $3.5 billion acreage deals


PRODUCTION

NORTH AMERICA RESOURCES PLAYS PROGRESS TIGHT/SHALE OIL AND GAS

~30,000 km2 portfolio, 60% liquids-rich

Eagle Ford LRS development underway

Drilling focus shifted to LRS from dry gas

~10,000 km2 new acreage 2012 Permian acquisition $1.9

billion Additions to existing positions

Integrated gas options

Liquids

mboe/day

Gas LRS

$ billion CAPEX

Dry gas

bcfe/day

Divestments

Piloncillo, Eagle Ford

Acquisitions

Gas

Positive initial exploration / appraisal

Pinedale

Groundbirch Deep Basin

Foothills

Utica

Permian

Exshaw

Niobrara

Mississippi Lime

Eagle Ford

Montney

Canol

Monterey

Haynesville

Marcellus

Liquids Rich Shales

Duvernay

Onstream


GROUP PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Region Theme

CONVERTING RESOURCES TO CASH FLOW 12 BN BOE ON STREAM 20 BN BOE IN FUNNEL

Europe

Asia Pacific

Americas

Middle East,

Africa, CIS

Mars B TLP on its way to Gulf of Mexico

Prelude cutting first steel in South Korea

Outlook at $80 Brent, assumes improved US gas prices from 2012 and 250,000 boe/d divestments and lease expiries 2012+

Upstream Engine

Integrated Gas

Resources Plays

Deep-water

Future Opportunities


2013 CAPEX & OUTCOME

$ billion

CFFO outlook @$100 Brent and assumes improved US gas environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements

TURNING NEW INVESTMENT INTO CASH FLOW

SPENDING PROGRAMME + NEAR-TERM CASH FLOW

Exploration & Appraisal

2017+

2015-16

Key

Proj

ects

Star

t-up

Upstream Base, Downstream +

Corporate

Longer Term 2012-15 CFFO

2013-14

~50% of capex on stream by 2015

IMPACT OF KEY UPSTREAM START-UPS

$ billion

2010-12

2013+

2010-12

2013+

ORGANIC CAPEX

CFFO


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK SIMON HENRY CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER


ON TRACK FOR AMBITIOUS CFFO GROWTH + INVESTMENT PLAN ($100 scenario)

$ billion

1 Portfolio/Choice negative impact on 2012 cash flow target: reduced NA gas drilling, divestments, project slippage

2 CFFO & capex outlook at $100, assumes improved US gas, WTI and Downstream environment from 2012; CFFO excludes working capital movements 3 Potential impact in $100 scenario from continuation of 2012 Downstream environment, Henry Hub, WCS and WTI discounts

Cash flow from operations/ex working capital Net Capital Investment

Dividends + buybacks Macro sensitivity3

Growth outlook: New projects Enhanced unit cash flow Macro uplift

Investment for sustained growth 2012-15: ~$120-130 billion net spend >$16 billion asset sales

PRIORITY ON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

2009 – 2012 average

2012 – 2015 average potential 2

2012

macro Portfolio/ Choice1

$91/bbl

$112/bbl

$100/bbl

2012 trend

Free cashflow


KEY WELLS

EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL 2013-14

Exploration & Appraisal Acreage/Deals

CONVENTIONAL $ billion

2010-12: 12 BILLION BOE AT ~$3/BOE (E&A + DEALS)

INCREASED CONVENTIONAL DRILLING ACTIVITY: HIGH POTENTIAL WELLS; 18 BASINS

CONTINUED DRILLING IN NEAR-FIELDS

MORE LRS AND TIGHT GAS DRILLING: 10+ KEY PLAY TESTS 2013-14; MULTI-TCFE POTENTIAL

Exploration & Appraisal Acreage/Deals

RESOURCES PLAYS $ billion

Frontier conventional

US GoM

French Guiana Brunei Nigeria

Albania

Canning + Exmouth

Alaska

Neuquen LRS

China

Colombia Benin Gabon

Ukraine

Tight/shale

North America LRS

‘13 ‘14

Turkey Qatar

Yinggehai

Kazakhstan

Malaysia

Tanzania

New Zealand

Oman

Russia

Germany

Egypt

Arrow

Permian Zitong East,

Eagle Ford NA

LRS

Brazil

Abadi Iraq

Browse North Sea


MAINTAINING OUR FINANCIAL FRAMEWORK

CASH PERFORMANCE

$175-$200 billion CFFO 2012-15 Grow free cash flow CFFO drives investment + payout

INVESTMENT

$120-$130 billion net capex 2012-15 ~$33 billion net capex 2013 Affordability, profitability, portfolio

PAY-OUT

Dividend linked to business results Scrip dividend with buy back offset Expected dividend growth 2013

BALANCE SHEET

0 – 30% gearing through cycle Balance sheet underpins investment Capital employed grows steadily

CFFO & capex outlook @$80-$100/BBL Brent and assumes improved US gas and Downstream environment from 2012


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS AND STRATEGY UPDATE PETER VOSER CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER


SHELL

ON TRACK FOR 2012-15 TARGETS GROWTH DELIVERY CAPITAL DISCIPLINE + TRACK RECORD

LONGER TERM

GROWTH PRIORITY

ENGINES


RESOURCES PLAYS

DEEP-WATER

INTEGRATED GAS

UPSTREAM

DOWNSTREAM


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC Q&A


ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC BACK UP


Movements 2010 2011 2012

Organic1 reserves additions 1,653 1,545 1,047

Year average price effect -198 -235 -431

Production -1,242 -1,212 -1,234

Acquisition & divestment -85 -105 -74

Total subsidiaries and affiliates movements 1,370 1,205 542

Year end positions

Total subsidiaries and affiliates reserves 14,273 14,266 13,573

Non-controlling interests 24 16 18

Net Shell reserves2 14,249 14,250 13,555

2010-2012 RESERVES SUMMARY

2010 2011 2012 2010-12

RRR Organic 133% 127% 85% 115%

RRR Organic incl. price effects 117% 108% 50% 92%

RRR Reported 110% 99% 44% 84%

RESERVES IN MILLION BOE3

1 Excludes acquisitions, divestments and year-average price impact 2 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders 3 Based on 12-month average price

Documents

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS ... · FOURTH QUARTER 2012 RESULTS & STRATEGY UPDATE LONDON, JANUARY 31 2013 ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC ... Qatar: Pearl GTL Oman: Qarn