RRO Adequacy Assessment Practices-Survey Responses 08-14-08 2

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    Survey for Inventory of NERC Regional R

    Survey QuestionsRegion ->

    Describe the latest resource adequacy studies(i.e. Loss-of-Load Expectation, Expected

    Unserved Energy, etc.)

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    1 What criterion do you use to determine whether

    existing and planned resources provide an

    adequate level of reliability?

    2 What is the methodology for assessing resource

    adequacy? What model is used?

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    3 What are the results of the assessment used for?-

    - i.e. to inform resource planning, to incentivize

    market participants, or for use by

    state/provincial/local regulators?

    4 What data is used? How is data provided?

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    5 Are transmission constraints modeled? If so,

    how?

    Load

    6 What method is used to aggregate internal peak

    demands of individual members actual loads for

    use in the forecast?

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    7 How do you categorize load uncertainty?

    8 How is load forecast uncertainty incorporated into

    your assessment?

    9 Are any loads within your geographic area

    excluded?

    Supply-Side Resources

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    10 For Planned and Proposed capacity resources,

    what is process used to select resources for

    reliability analysis/capacity margin calculations

    (i.e. forward capacity markets, obligation to serve

    activities, low certainty classes of resources

    under consideration, etc.)? Quantify this resourceselection if possible.

    11 What criteria do you use to include future

    resources in your resource adequacy

    assessments?

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    12 Given your definition of resource certainty above,

    how does your region map resources to

    "existing", "planned" and "proposed" capacity, as

    defined in the 2008 LTRA instructions? (See

    Footnote Column)

    13 How would you recommend the uncertainty of

    existing and future resources be categorized? Do

    you have suggestions for improving the NERC

    capacity definitions?

    14 Do Loss of Load Probability problems occur in

    unexpected months due to maintenance outage

    scheduling assumptions?

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    15 How are energy-limited resources, such as hydro

    or environmentally-constrained thermal,

    modeled?

    16 Describe how energy-only, existing-uncertain

    wind and transmission-limited resources are

    considered in your resource adequacy

    assessment.

    17 Is there a rating system for wind resources?

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    18 How are temperature impacts on resources

    modeled? Is there a formal process for rating

    generators?

    19 Have you considered fuel supply vulnerability in

    your region/subregion? If so, are there any

    anticipated concerns. If not, explain why this is

    not a concern. What percentage of your

    generation is either natural gas or coal-fired and

    are any fuel supply and delivery problems

    anticipated for either fuel type?

    20 Explain and/or reference documentation, and

    provide the definition of deliverability used in yourregion/subregion. If there is none, explain what

    is done to ensure that the resources are sufficient

    and deliverable to meet your load requirements

    at the time of system peak.

    Demand-Side Management Resources (DSM):

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    21 Describe and specify the current and forecast

    demand response programs in your region that

    reduce peak demand i.e. interruptible demand;

    direct control load management; critical peak

    pricing with control; load as a capacity resource,

    etc.

    ENERGY EFFICIENCY (EE) (non-dispatchable)

    22 Are historical levels of EE assumed to continue

    into the future? Or is EE assumed to erode?

    23 What types of EE improvements are included in

    the 10-year load forecast?

    24 Are any types of EE improvements tabulated

    separately? If so, what improvements?

    25 How do you determine the peak demand

    component of EE improvements?

    26 Are the EE-associated peak demand reductions

    incorporated into the resource adequacy

    assessments?

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    27 How are the certainties/uncertainties of EE

    resources modeled?

    28 What criteria do you use to include future EE inyour assessments?

    NON-DISPATCHABLE DEMAND RESPONSE (ND2R

    29 Are any ND2R resources included in the 10-year

    load forecast?

    30 Are any ND2

    R resources tabulated separately? Ifso, what resources?

    31 How do you determine the peak demand

    component of ND2R?

    32 Are the ND2R-associated peak demand

    reductions incorporated into the resource

    adequacy assessments?

    33 How are the certainties/uncertainties of ND2R

    resources modeled? How is retention and

    diversity modeled?

    34 What criteria do you use to include future ND2R

    in your assessments?

    DISPATCHABLE ECONOMIC DEMAND RESPONSE

    35 Are any DEDR resources included in the 10-year

    load forecast?

    36 Are any DEDR resources tabulated separately? Ifso, what resources?

    37 How do you determine the peak demand

    component of DEDR?

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    38 Are the DEDR-associated peak demand

    reductions incorporated into the resource

    adequacy assessments?

    39 How are the certainties/uncertainties of DEDR

    resources modeled? How is retention and

    diversity modeled?40 What criteria do you use to include future DEDR

    in your assessments?

    DISPATCHABLE CONTROLLABLE DEMAND RESP

    41 Are any DCDR resources included in the 10-year

    load forecast?

    42 Are any DCDR resources tabulated separately? If

    so, what resources?

    43 How do you determine the peak demand

    component of DCDR?

    44 Are the DCDR-associated peak demand

    reductions incorporated into the resource

    adequacy assessments?45 How are the certainties/uncertainties of DCDR

    resources modeled? How is retention and

    diversity modeled?

    46 What criteria do you use to include future DCDR

    in your assessments?

    Emergency Operating Procedures (EOPs)

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    47 What are your categories of emergency operating

    procedures?

    48 Are any emergency operating procedures

    included as measures to avoid a loss of load in

    resource adequacy assessments? If so, which

    rocedures?Imports/Exports

    49 How do you categorize imports and exports?

    50 How are each of these categories considered in

    your resource adequacy assessment?

    51 Is there a process in place to ensure that there is

    consistency of export/import assumptions

    between and among regions and areas?

    52 What criteria do you use for including future

    imports, exports?

    Tie Benefits

    53 How are tie benefits considered in your resourceadequacy assessment?

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    54 Is there a process in place to ensure that there is

    consistency of tie benefit assumptions between

    and among regions and areas?

    55 What criteria do you use for including future tie

    benefits?

    Assessments

    56 How often are probabilistic assessments

    performed?

    57 What is the time horizon for the assessments?

    58 What type of probabilistic metric is used to

    assess resource adequacy? (see footnote

    column for possible choices and existing

    inventory for definitions)

    59 For probabilistic assessments, what parameters

    are treated as stochastic variables?

    60 Does the assessment include scenarios? How

    are these modeled?

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    61 Discuss resource adequacy and operational

    measures available if peak demands are higher

    than expected due to weather or other conditions.

    62 Does the assessment include a threshold below

    which misses are not included in the analysis, or

    which denotes flexibility in reserve margin

    capacity?

    Reserve Margin Calculations

    63 Is non-dispatchable DSM subtracted from peak

    demand?

    64 Is dispatchable DSM modeled as a resource or

    subtracted from load forecast?

    65 Is there a different PRM target "with EOP" and

    another "without EOP"?

    66 Are there different PRM targets with and without

    tie benefits/imports/exports?

    67 Are supply-side resources such as hydro and

    wind derated for reserve margin presentation? If

    so, how?

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    Implementation

    68 How is resource adequacy implemented in your

    Region, sub-regions or sub-areasthrough

    organized markets (ISOs, RTOS), planning

    reserve sharing pools, state regulatory

    mechanisms, other mechanisms or notimplemented using an organized approach?

    69 Have the entities responsible for assuring

    resource adequacy in your Region established

    metrics and benchmarks (e.g. planning reserve

    margin of 12%) with which to measure resourceadequacy? If so please list those entities and the

    associated metrics and benchmarks.

    70 Are there jurisdictions in your Region with

    prescribed Resource Adequacy requirements? If

    yes, please list those jurisdictions.

    71 If resource adequacy is implemented using an

    organized market approach, what is thetimeframe when a demonstration of sufficient

    resources to meet the metric is required? (e.g.

    month out, year out, several years out?)

    Other Questions?

    72 In reviewing the attached spreadsheet and the

    list of questions above, have we missed any

    questions, which because of their non-inclusion

    preclude a complete description of the Regionsresource adequacy assessment methodology?

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    source Adequacy Assessment Crit

    Response to SurveyERCOT

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    Previous LOLP studies have led to stakeholder

    agreement that a reserve margin of 12.5% is

    adequate to ensure a minimal risk of loss of load

    events.

    The most recent ERCOT LOLP study was

    conducted by Global Energy Decisions. They

    utilized the ProSym model to determine the

    probability of unserved energy in each hour

    throughout a year.

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    To inform regulators, market participants, and

    other stakeholders

    These studies have been subcontracted to

    outside engineering firms. These firms have

    used their own databases.

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    Not in previous studies.

    The forecasted peak demands are produced by

    ERCOT for the entire ERCOT Region (which is a

    single Balancing Authority area) based on

    coincident actual demands.

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    Primary sources of load uncertainty are weather

    and economic trends.

    Probability distributions are developed based on

    historical data and expected future trends.

    No.

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    Planned capacity additions include new

    generation that has a signed interconnection

    agreement and air permit, with wind generation

    counted at its effective load carrying capability.

    Proposed capacity additions include all other

    generation that has requested interconnectionagreement, with wind generation counted at its

    effective load carrying capability.

    Future generation facilities for which there is a

    signed transmission interconnection agreement

    and a completed air permit are included in our

    resource adequacy assessments.

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    in ERCOT, we consider existing units and units

    with signed interconnection agreements and air

    permit to be equally certain.

    Yes. LOLP events can occur during peak

    months, during very hot periods in shoulder

    months, or during winter severe cold snaps,

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    ERCOT does not have a significant amount of

    energy-limited resources.

    Existing Uncertain capacity includes the portion

    of the wind generation that is not counted as

    Certain due to its variability and the existing

    generating capacity that is mothballed

    Based on previous LOLP studies, wind resourcesare considered to have an effective load carrying

    capability of 8.7% of nameplate rating for

    resource adequacy studies in ERCOT.

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    ERCOT maintains summer and winter ratings for

    generating units.

    Over 60% of the generating capacity in ERCOT is

    fueled by natural gas, resulting in some concern

    about the adequacy of natural gas supply during

    winter months when winter heating demand

    peaks. Natural gas interruptions are not typically

    a concern during the summer, when electric

    power demand peaks. ERCOT has a procedure

    in place to request current status of fuel supply

    contracts, back-up fuel supplies and unit

    capabilities if severe cold weather is in the sevenday forecast. This information would be used to

    prepare operation plans. However, there is

    currently no market incentive or non-market

    mechanism for gas generation to maintain dual

    fuel capability and storage, typically with fuel oil,

    that could be critical to maintaining generation

    adequacy during extended periods of gas

    curtailments. .

    ERCOT does not have a definition of

    deliverability at this time. The deliverability ofresources at system peak is evaluated as part of

    the Five-Year transmission planning process.

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    ERCOT has no demand response programs

    specifically designed to deploy at system peaks.

    ERCOT ISO administers two market-based DR

    services (Loads Acting as a Resource providing

    Ancillary Services, and Emergency Interruptible

    Load Service) in which Loads are available fordispatch in emergency conditions during all

    hours. Emergency conditions do not necesssarily

    correlate to system peaks.

    Historically, EE initiatives are assumed to have

    been assimilated into econometric load

    forecasting.

    Per statutory requirement, projected peak

    demand reductions due to EE are now required

    to be reported as part of long-term planning.

    Only EE programs administered by IOU

    transmission & distribution service providers for2008 and 2009, per statute. These include EE

    standard offer and market transformation

    programs, and load management standard offer

    programs.

    As reported by the Public Utility Commission of

    Texas, based on data provided by IOU

    transmission & distribution providers.

    Yes

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    n/a

    Texas Legislature is expected to revisit EEstatutes in 2009; requirements may change at

    that time.

    ):

    No.

    No.

    n/a

    No.

    n/a

    n/a

    (DEDR):

    No.

    No.

    n/a

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    No.

    n/a

    None.

    ONSE (DCDR):

    Yes, Loads Acting as a Resource (LaaR)

    providing Ancillary Services.

    Yes. See above.

    Three year average of the hourly procurement of

    LaaR providing Ancillary Services during the

    Summer months for HE 1600 thru HE 1800.

    Yes.

    There are currently in excess of 2000 MW

    qualified to perform these services. Limits are

    placed on the maximum participation at 1150

    MW. In addition the historical average is adjusted

    to show a 95% confidence level based on the

    normal distribution of these Resources in the

    Generation/Load Resource mix.

    None at present.

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    Excerpt of Current ERCOT EECP procedures are

    attached. Full version can be viewed at

    http://www.ercot.com/mktrules/protocols/current/0

    5-100107.doc

    Previous LOLP studies have included an

    assumption that a loss of load event would not

    occur until after the Loads Acting As Resources

    LAARs have been tri ed.

    ERCOT does not have any synchronous import

    or export capability.

    n/a

    n/a

    n/a

    ERCOT has 1,106 MW of asynchronous tiecapacity with adjoining interconnections. One-

    half of this capacity is assumed to be available

    for reserve margin analysis purposes.

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    No

    n/a

    LOLP studies have been performed every 2 - 3

    years.

    These studies have looked at current conditions

    only.

    The most recent study used a 1 event in 10 years

    metric (see attached).

    Loads, thermal generation availability, wind

    generation availability.

    No scenarios were performed in the last LOLP

    study.

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    ERCOT will initiate its Emergency Electric

    Curtailment Plan (EECP) if available capacity

    gets below required levels due to gas

    curtailments or any other reason. The EECP

    maintains the reliability of the interconnection by

    avoiding uncontrolled load shedding.

    No

    No

    No

    N/A

    N/A

    Wind resources are assumed to have an

    effective load carrying capability of 8.7% of

    nameplate rating.

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    N/A. ERCOT has a deregulated, energy-only gen

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    No

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    ria by Regional Reliability Organiza

    Response to SurveyFRCC

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    Minimum 20% Reserve Margin for IOUs;

    remaining utilties maintain at least a 15%

    Reserve Margin.

    The periodic loss-of-load probability (LOLP)

    assessment validates that the Reserve Marginrequirement is adequate.

    Develop resource plan that maintains FPSC

    mandated Reserve Margin.

    FRCC conducts periodic loss-of-load probability

    (LOLP) assessments for the region using the Tie-

    Line and Generation Reliability (TIGER) model

    which calculates the LOLP values for the ten-

    year planning horizon, with the criteria not to

    exceed 0.1 days/year.

    FRCC conducts annual reliability assessment by

    monitoring trends in load forecasting accuracy,

    unit Availability Factors, and unit Forced Outage

    Rates.

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    To confirm Reserve Margin criteria is adequate to

    utilities and state regulators.

    LOLP Analysis - Data includes load forecast,

    loadshape, resource plan, unit Forced Outage

    Rates, maintenance schedules, available tie-lineassistance (regional imports), and energy

    management programs. Each utility provides

    data to the FRCC in an online database.

    Annual Reliability Assessment - Data includes

    trending historic unit Forced Outage Rates and

    unit Availabilities, and comparison of load

    forecast to actual. Each utility provides data to

    the FRCC in an online database.

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    No.

    Member seasonal peaks are aggregated with

    care taken not to double count. The members'

    individual seasonal peaks are summed to

    determine a Regional non-coincident peak.

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    Load uncertainty is left to the member

    companies, and is not analyzed on the Regional

    level.

    The FRCC Load Forecast is an aggregation of

    the load forecast of each of its member utilities.FRCC has pursued this avenue since it is only

    logical to assume that each utility is most familiar

    with its own service territory. The load forecast

    evaluation process undertaken by FRCC ensures

    that each utility in preparing this outlook is

    availing itself of the best available information in

    terms of data, forecasting models and to a

    certain degree consistency of assumptions

    across all utilities.

    FRCCs Load Forecasting Task Force (LFTF)

    reviews in detail each utilitys forecast

    methodology, input assumptions and sources,

    and output of forecast results. Sanity checks are

    performed comparing the historical past with the

    projected load growth, use per customer, weather-

    normalized assumptions, and load factors.

    Does not apply.

    Some members exclude load served by self-

    service generation since this generation is

    assumed to be in-service during monthly peaks.

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    All Planned and Proposed capacity additions are

    based on the obligation to serve and are included

    in the Reserve Margin calculation. Non-firm

    energy resources are not included in calcuation

    of Reserve Margins.

    Minimum 20% Reserve Margin for IOUs;

    remaining utilties maintain at least a 15%

    Reserve Margin.

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    For 'Existing - Certain' capacity, the region will

    include all existing committed firm generation.

    For 'Existing - Uncertain' capacity, the region

    includes existing units that have been mothballed

    or placed into operational standby, and any IPPswith generation that does not have a firm contract

    for service.

    For future generation, all generation will be

    mapped as 'Planned'.

    See response to question 12 above on 'Planned'

    capacity.

    No.

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    Energy-limited resources in the region are not

    significant in the FRCC Reserve Margin

    calculation, and are not always modeled.

    N/A

    N/A

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    Models contain a winter and summer rating for

    each unit in the region.

    The FRCC has established a Fuel Reliability

    Working Group (FRWG) whose purpose is to

    examine matters related to fuel and impacts to

    Bulk Electric System (BES) reliability. The

    FRWG provides the administrative oversight of a

    Regional fuel reliability forum that studies the

    interdependencies of fuel availability and electric

    reliability and supports coordinated Regional

    responses to fuel issues and emergencies.

    The generation fuel mix is approximately 18%

    Coal, 51% Natural Gas, 21% Oil, and 8%

    Nuclear.

    The FRCC Transmission Working Group

    (composed of transmission planners from FRCCmember utilities) conducts regional studies in

    accordance with the FRCC Regional Planning

    Process to ensure that all dedicated firm

    resources are deliverable to loads under forecast

    conditions and other various probable scenarios

    to ensure the robustness of the BES. In addition,

    the FRCC Transmission Working Group

    evaluates planned generator additions under

    stressed conditions to ensure that the proposed

    interconnection and/or integration are acceptableto maintain the reliability for the BES within the

    FRCC Re ion.

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    Interruptible, Curtailable, Residential critical peak

    pricing and Commerical demand response direct

    load control and standby generation.

    EE is assumed to continue in the future, and

    planning assumes replacement in kind. The

    impact of the U.S. Energy Policy Act of 2005

    increases through time as sufficient time is

    allowed for the current stock of less efficientappliances to be depleted and replaced by more

    efficient ones.Most Utilities are required per Florida Statute to

    file plans each year with the Public Service

    Commission detailing efforts in EE improvements

    as outlines in the Florida Energy Efficiency and

    Conservation Act (FEECA). Some entities

    account for EE within the load forecast and

    others account for it se aratel .Most Utilities are required per Florida Statute to

    file plans each year with the Public ServiceCommission detailing efforts in EE improvements

    as outlines in the Florida Energy Efficiency and

    Conservation Act (FEECA). Some entities

    account for EE within the load forecast and

    others account for it separately (i.e., incremental

    conservation, residential versus commercial

    conservation .There are approved programs registered with the

    Florida PSC that have both demand and energy

    reduction goals assocaited with their

    implementation. Those goals are the amounts

    included in the EE forecast.Yes

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    Most Utilities are required per Florida Statute to

    file plans each year with the Public Service

    Commission detailing efforts in EE improvements

    as outlines in the Florida Energy Efficiency and

    Conservation Act FEECA .

    Most Utilities are required to file plans each yearwith the Public Service Commission detailing

    efforts in EE program and improvements

    FEECA .

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

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    N/A

    N/A

    N/A

    Some of the entities in the Region include DCDR

    resources in their forecast.

    Some of the entities in the region include DCDR

    resources separately such as Residential Load

    Management, Commercial Load Management,Interruptible Service, Curtailable Service and

    Stanb Generation.Time-Temp Matrix - Residential Load

    Management & Commercial Load Management.

    Sum of estimated available MW from

    Iinterruptible Service and Curtailable Service.

    Sum of MW capacity for Standby Generation.

    Yes.

    Participation is tracked and end-use study

    verifies diversified impacts and results are

    reflected in future DCDR forecasts.

    Cost benefit analysis includes Participant Test,

    Total Resource Cost Test, and Rate Impact

    Measure.

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    Interruptible/Curtailable load, DSM (HVAC, Water

    Heater, Pool Pump), Voltage Reduction, 10

    minute fast start units, 10 minute reserve sharing,

    customer stand-by generation, emergency

    contracts, unit emergency capability and load

    shed. (The categories described above can varyfrom entit to entit .Same as above. The inclusion of the categories

    described above can vary from entity to entity in

    resource adequacy assessments.

    Generally, sales contracts are not expected to

    renew, purchase contracts from QFs, Cogens

    and Renewables are expected to renew, and

    speculative contracts are not included. However,each entity in the region can account for sales

    and purchase differently. The FRCC only

    aggregates the information provided by each

    entit .The FRCC Region only includes firm imports and

    exports in the resource adequacy assessment.

    The FRCC Region only includes firm imports and

    exports in the resource adequacy assessment.

    There is a process for coordination between the

    FRCC and SERC Regions addressing import andexport transactions.

    Generally, only executed contracts for firm import

    and exports are included.

    The FRCC Region only includes firm imports andexports in the resource adequacy assessment.

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    The FRCC Region only includes firm imports and

    exports in the resource adequacy assessment.

    There is a process for coordination between the

    FRCC and SERC Regions addressing import and

    export transactions.

    Generally, only executed contracts for firm import

    and exports are included.

    Performed as needed by evaluating input data

    such as forced outage rates and availability

    factors for significant changes.

    Annually.

    Loss Of Load Probability (1 day in 10 years).

    Occurences of forced outages.

    Scenarios such as change in load forecast may

    be modeled as needed.

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    Generally, the reserve margin includes:

    Interruptible/Curtailable load, DLC (HVAC, Water

    Heater, Pool Pump), Voltage Reduction, 10

    minute fast start units, customer stand-by

    generation, (These operational measures can

    vary from entity to entity) which are availableduring unexpected conditions. Additionally, 10

    minute reserve sharing, emergency contracts,

    unit emergency capability and public appeal are

    operational measures that can be implemented

    to meet the unexpected demand.

    The probabilistic assessment does not include

    extreme events. However, the FRCC studies the

    impact of extreme fuel shortages and/or fuel

    deliverability issues (pipeline event). These

    studies are used to construct regional mitigation

    procedures.

    Yes (Individual entity practice may be different).

    Subtracted from load.

    No.

    No.

    No.

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    State Regulatory Mechanisms

    The Florida Public Service Commission requires

    IOUs (PEF, FPL, TEC) to maintain a Reserve

    Margin of at least 20% and all other entities at

    least 15%. Individual entities within the FRCCmay utilize LOLP metrics for their resource

    adequacy assessment.

    The Florida Public Service Commission requires

    IOUs (PEF, FPL, TEC) to maintain a Reserve

    Margin of at least 20% and all other entities at

    least 15%.

    N/A

    No response

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    tion (August 14, 2008)

    Response to SurveyMRO

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    The MRO does not set a resource adequacy

    level. The MRO requires that an assessment be

    performed annually based on an LOLP of no

    greater than 0.1 day in one (1) year.

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the PlanningCoordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area(MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area(MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the PlanningCoordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the PlanningCoordinators within the MRO geographical area

    MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPowerSee the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the PlanningCoordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the PlanningCoordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See MRO standard (RES-501-MRO-01)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area(MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

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    MRO standard is applicable to the LSE or its

    delegate. Midwest PRSG, MAPP PRSG,

    SaskPower will be performing the studies

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area

    (MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    state of Wisconsin

    See the responses from the Planning

    Coordinators within the MRO geographical area(MISO, MAPP, MHEB, ATC, SaskPower)

    No response

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    Response to Survey

    NPCC

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    Each Areas probability (or risk) of disconnecting

    any firm load due to resource deficiencies shall

    be, on average, not more than once in ten years.

    Compliance with this criteria shall be evaluated

    probabilistically, such that the loss of load

    expectation [LOLE] of disconnecting firm loaddue to resource deficiencies shall be, on

    average, no more than 0.1 day per year.

    The evaluation makes due allowance for demand

    uncertainty, scheduled outages and deratings,

    forced outages and deratings, assistance over

    interconnections with neighboring Areas and

    Regions, transmission transfer capabilities, and

    capacity and/or load relief from available

    operating procedures. General Electric's Multi-

    Area Reliability Simulation (MARS) program is

    used.

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    The annual NPCC Multi-Area Summer

    Probabilistic Reliability Assessments verifies

    NPCC members' (Areas) compliance to the

    NPCC Document A-02 (resource adequacy

    criteria), as well as demonstarting their

    compliance to governmental and regulatoryofficials. Periodically, NPCC also performs an

    Interregional Long Range Adequacy Overview,

    extending the annual Probabilistic Multi-Area

    Reliability Assessment out five years in the

    future. In addition, NPCC has established a

    Reliability Assessment Program to bring together

    work done by the Council, its member systems

    and Areas relevant to the assessment of bulk

    power system reliability. As part of the Reliability

    Assessment Program, the Task Force onCoordination of Planning is charged, on an

    ongoing basis, with conducting reviews of

    resource adequacy of each Area of NPCC.

    NPCC Areas follow the requirements outlined in

    NPCC's Document B-08 - Guidelines for Area

    Review of Resource Adequacy. See:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    See:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/regStandards/Gu

    ide.aspx - Document B-08

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    Yes - The GE MARS program models the

    transmission system through transfer limits on

    the interfaces between pairs of areas. The

    transfer limits are specified for each direction of

    the interface and can be changed on a monthly

    basis. Random forced outages on the interfacesare modeled in the same manner as the outages

    on thermal units, through the use of state

    transition rates.

    The GE MARS model uses hourly (8760) load

    data that is forecast by the Areas, based on the

    year 2002 load shape.

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    Load forecast uncertainty is modeled. The

    effects on reliability of uncertainties in the load

    forecast, due to weather and economic

    conditions, are captured through the load

    forecast uncertainty model in the GE MARS

    program. The program computes the reliabilityindices at each of the specified load levels (seven

    load levels are modeled) and calculates weighted-

    average values based on the associated

    probabilities of occurrence. The per unit

    variations in Area and sub Area load can vary on

    a monthly basis.

    Through the load forecast uncertainty model in

    the GE MARS program. The forecast of load

    uncertainty can change, depending on the nature(short term (annual) or long term (five year)) of

    the analysis.

    No - in fact a GE MARS representation of

    neighboring regions (PJM/FRC and the

    MISO/MRO) is included.

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    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resource.aspx

    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

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    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resource.aspx

    For short term (annual) analysis, resource

    certainty can be addressed through scenario

    analysis; for longer term analysis (five year), a

    probabilistic representation for the expected

    value of resources can be developed that

    eliminates the need for characterizations such as

    " lanned" or " ro osed."The NPCC LOLE criteria is an annual index that

    accounts for the risks in all hours (8760)

    modeled.

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    Type 1 energy-limited units are modeled as

    thermal units whose capacity is limited on a

    random basis for reasons other than the forced

    outages on the unit. This unit type can be used

    to model a thermal unit whose operation may be

    restricted due to the unavailability of fuel, or ahydro unit with limited water availability. It can

    also be used to model technologies such as wind

    or solar; the capacity may be available but the

    energy output is limited by weather conditions.

    Type 2 energy-limited units are modeled as

    deterministic load modifiers. They are typically

    used to model conventional hydro units for which

    the available water is assumed to be known with

    little or no uncertainty. This type can also beused to model certain types of contracts. A Type

    2 energy-limited unit is described by specifying a

    maximum rating, a minimum rating, and a

    monthly available energy. This data can be

    changed on a monthly basis. The unit is

    scheduled on a monthly basis with the unit's

    minimum rating dispatched for all of the hours in

    the month. The remaining capacity and energy

    can be scheduled in one of two ways. In the first

    method, it is scheduled deterministically so as to

    reduce the eak loads as much as ossible. InNPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

    Development of NPCC guidelines for ratingintermittent resources (wind) for resource

    adequacy assessments is a NPCC 2009

    Corporate Goal.

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    Yes - see NPCC Document A-13 Verification of

    Generator Gross and Net Real Power Capability

    at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/regStandards/Cri

    teria.aspx

    Handled through scenario analysis - dependence

    on natural gas for gas-fired generation is more of

    a concern in the winter period - see: Multi-Area

    Probabilistic Reliability Assessment For Winter

    2007/08 at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reports/Seasonal

    .aspx

    Refer to the NPCC A-02 Document - NPCC

    Members' are obligated to its conditions underthe NPCC Bylaws - see:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/aboutus/BusPlan

    Bylaws.aspx

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    No response

    Refer to the individual NPCC Area responses for

    more detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

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    See above

    See above

    Refer to the individual NPCC Area responses for

    more detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.as x

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    Refer to the individual NPCC Area responses for

    more detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

    See above

    See above

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    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

    See above

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    Refer to the individual NPCC Area responses for

    more detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

    Yes -the annual LOLE index is calculated after all

    Areas' EOPs are exhausted.

    Firm sales/purchases of ICAP (installed capacity)

    are modeled.

    See: pre-seasonal assessments at

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reports/Seasonal

    .aspxNeighboring Regions (PJM/RFC and MISO/MRO)

    participate in the studies and review the

    purchase/sale assumptions.

    Only known, firm contracts are modeled.

    NPCC Multi-Area modeling of its Areas with theGE MARS program and neighboring regions

    precludes the need for explicit Tie Benefit

    assumptions. NPCC periodically reviews the Tie

    Benefits assumptions used by its Members for

    reasonability - see:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/publications/Assi

    s.as x

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    See:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/publications/Assi

    s.aspx

    See:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/publications/Assi

    s.aspx A range is estimated based on "As Is' and

    "At Criteria"

    Annually for the pre-seasonal and interim Area

    reviews of resource adequacy and every three

    years for the comprehensive Area reviews of

    resource adequacy

    Pre-seasonal assessments - current year; interim

    and comprehensive - five year

    annual LOLE

    Refer to:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reports/Seasonal.aspx (pre-seasonal multi-area assessments) and

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx (interim and comprehensive reviews of

    resource adequacy)

    Yes - scenarios are modeled with separate multi-

    area probabilistic assessment

    assumptions/simulations

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    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resource.aspx

    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.as x

    NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer to

    the individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.as xSee above

    NPCC does not have a reserve margin

    requirement

    NPCC does not have a reserve margin

    requirement

    See above

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    Through the NPCC Areas (ISO-NE, NYISO,

    IESO, NBSO, Hydro-Quebec)

    Consistent with the NPCC A-02 resource

    adequacy criteria; refer to the individual NPCC

    Area responses for more detail or the latest

    NPCC Review of Area Resource Adequacy at:http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.aspx

    New York State, the Ontario Energy Board, the

    Quebec Energy Board, NECPUC, and the New

    Brunswick commission have all either mandated

    or accepted the NPCC A-02 resource adequacy

    criteria.NPCC modeling is consistent with each NPCC

    Areas' resource adequacy assumptions - refer tothe individual NPCC Area responses for more

    detail or the latest NPCC Review of Area

    Resource Adequacy at:

    http://www.npcc.org/documents/reviews/Resourc

    e.as x

    Many of the questions are "reserve margin"

    centric, NPCC's criteria is based on a

    probabilistic multi-area LOLE index; reserve

    margins in NPCC may vary by area, but eachArea adheres to the NPCC criteria when

    calculating there installed capacity and resource

    re uirements.

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    Response to SurveyRFC

    The PRSGs within ReliabilityFirst conduct LOLEanalyses to determine the required reserve

    margins for their respective areas. Information on

    the reserve margin requirement can be found at

    the following URLs: PJM -

    http://www.pjm.com/markets/rpm/downloads/plan

    ning-period-parameters.xls Midwest PRSG -

    www.midwestmarket.org/page/Regulatory+and+E

    conomic+Standards

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    ReliabilityFirst has a Regional Standard that

    requires all LSEs to determine their level of

    reserve margin needed to satisfy a Loss of Load

    Expectation (LOLE) of 1 occurrence in ten years

    (.1/year LOLE). The evaluation can be made for

    individual LSEs or groups of LSEs known asPlanned Reserve Sharing Groups (PRSGs).

    The choice of a particular LOLE model is up to

    the LSE or PRSG.

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    The ReliabilityFirst standard requires that LSEs

    or PRSGs perform an LOLE analysis. The

    reserve margins derived from that analysis is

    used by ReliabilityFirst to assess the resource

    adequacy of the region. Results from this

    assessment are reported within theReliabilityFirst region and in the NERC

    assessments.

    Each evaluation utilizes demand data,

    DSM/Demand response data, Generator capacity

    and availability data, and interconnection/importcapability data. Data can be provided by

    whatever functional entity has the applicable

    data, or the PRSG can develop or collect the

    applicable data as needed.

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    Transmission constraints are required to be

    factored into import capability. Internal

    constraints are as determined and included by

    the LSE/PRSG in their analysis.

    The demand forecast for an LSE or PRSG is to

    be coincident demand.

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    Weather, economic forecast, and load forecast

    uncertainty are the listed categories in the

    regional standard.

    This is incorporated into the analysis as

    determined by the PRSG or LSE.

    The only demand not included in the analysis is

    behind the meter and customer supplied

    demand.

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    The two RTOs in the ReliabilityFirst region (MISO

    and PJM) provide this data based on the

    definitions in the NERC LTRA.

    ReliabilityFirst assesses long term adequacy by

    comparing the required reserves to the Planned

    and Proposed capacity resources identified by

    the RTOs.

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    Existing capacity- Certain: Deliverable resources

    included as Capacity or DNR in the RTO

    markets. - Uncertain: Existing capacity not in the

    certain category. All resources are to be mapped

    to Planned and Proposed categories based on

    the definitions and the RTO's judgement.

    Planned resources should be resources that

    have a reasonable expectation of commercial

    operation in the next few years. Proposed

    resources are uncertain and should be

    recocnized as uncertain without trying to assign a

    precise probability of operation.

    In planning studies this does not occur.

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    The modeling is determined by the LSE or PRSG

    conducting the study.

    Energy only and transmission limited resources

    would be included as a type of future year

    planned resources. Uncertain wind or other

    variable generation would be included as a type

    of proposed resources.

    The rating of wind generation facilities isdetermined by the PJM and MISO market

    requirements.

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    ReliabilityFirst is developing a rating standard

    that will require verification of seasonal capacity

    ratings. Ratings will be adjusted to expected

    seasonal ambient temperatures.

    The ReliabilityFirst region monitors, at a high

    level, the general fuel supply situation in the

    region. About 46% of the fuel supply is coal,

    about 29% is gas. As of 4-15-08 there are no

    anticipated fuel supply concerns.

    Both RTOs, MISO and PJM have procedures to

    evaluate deliverability of generation to load withintheir respective markets. There is no regional

    definition of deliverability.

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    The ReliabilityFirst RTOs currently identify

    interruptible demand and direct control load

    management as their demand response

    programs.

    Energy efficiency is built in to the demand

    forecasts based upon the the demand

    forecasting methodology used by the RTOs and

    their members. ReliabilityFirst does not have any

    information on EE programs and forecasts.

    See response to #22

    See response to #22

    See response to #22

    See response to #22

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    See response to #22

    See response to #22

    No

    No

    Not applicable

    No

    Not applicable

    Not applicable

    Unknown

    No

    Not applicable

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    No

    Not applicable

    Not applicable

    Yes

    No

    From RTO data responses

    Yes

    Modeling is assumed to be the net reduction

    available at the time of the regional peak.

    The current level of reduction is assumed to

    continue indefinitely.

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    The categories of emergency operating

    procedures are determined by the RTOs.

    No.

    PJM and MISO provide data only for "firm"

    imports and exports.

    Firm imports and exports are included in

    resource adequacy assessments.

    No.

    Whatever criteria the RTOs use for firm imports

    and exports.

    Tie benefits are not included in the assessments.

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    Not applicable

    Not applicable

    Regional assessments utilize the reserve margins

    of the PRSGs. Reserve margins are based upon

    probabilistic analyses that are conducted

    annually.

    The regional assessments have seasonal and

    ten year horizons according to NERC standards.

    The PRSG analyses have a ten year horizon.

    The PRSG analyses are required to calculate an

    LOLE based on a minimum of the weekday peak

    LOLPs.

    Random generator outages are included in the

    PRSG analyses

    The region's seasonal assessments include an

    exteme weather scenario.

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    When peak demands exceed expectations for

    any reason, the operational response will vary

    from nothing (adequate reserves), to rolling

    blackouts (inadequate reserves, no available

    purchase power, and demand response, public

    appeals and voltage reductions unable to restoredemand and capacity balance).

    Not applicable

    Yes, when included in the demand forecast.

    Load reduction

    No.

    No.

    Yes, based upon expected operation at peak.

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    PJM has a provision to implement through the

    RTO tariff. MISO is approved by FERC to

    implement through the RTO tariff beginning in

    2009.

    Yes. PJM 15 % reserve margin. MISO uses 12%,

    13.7%,14.2%, 14.3% and 18% depending on the

    specific PRSG zone or state requirements.

    The state of Wisconsin requires a 18% reserve

    margin.

    The PJM timeframe is one year. The MISO

    timeframe is one month.

    No.

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    Response to SurveySERC

    SERC as a region does not perform probabilisticresource adequacy studies, however many of

    SERC's members do perform probabilistic

    resource adequacy studies to project future

    resource needs. These underlying probabilistic

    studies will therefore influence SERC's

    deterministic assessment. Under the supervision

    of the SERC Engineering Committee (EC), the

    SERC Reliability Review subcommittee (RRS)

    conducts reviews of regional and subregional

    margin assessment; assesses the adequacy and

    security of each of the SERC subregions; and

    reports its findings to the SERC EC. The RRS

    reviews and assesses the overall reliability

    (adequacy and security) of the SERC bulk

    electric systems, both existing and as planned, to

    ensure that each SERC member conforms to

    applicable NERC Reliability Standards, as well as

    any related SERC criteria. The RRS is a

    permanent subcommittee of the SERC

    Engineering Committee. These reviews and

    assessments: 1) consider trends in planning,operations, and external influences as they affect

    reliability, both overall and subregion specific; 2)

    are conducted annually and as requested by the

    NERC Planning Committee; and 3) consider

    seasonal variations, near-term ears one

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    There is no regional criteria specified. Resource

    planning and criteria are left to the members and

    their respective state or other jurisdictions. The

    RRS determines if resource information

    submitted represents a reasonable and attainable

    plan. The transmission systems within SERC areplanned, designed, and operated such that the

    regions generating resources with an obligation

    to serve load or have firm contracts to serve load

    are not constrained. Typical resource adequacy

    studies (LOLE studies) do not consider

    transmission constraints

    Some SERC members perform some sort of

    probabilistic studies. Others consider their

    approach deterministic. Some consider their

    approach a combination of deterministic and

    probabilistic methods. At least one member uses

    Loss of load expectation and percent reserves.

    The RELY model is used by at least one

    member.

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    Determining resource adequacy in each

    capability period (summer/winter). Results are

    used to determine if additional capacity and

    energy need to be procured. State and local

    regulators generally rely on company specific

    studies for those companies within theirrespective jurisdictions.

    The data used is the data gathered through a

    twice yearly survey of SERC members in support

    of NERC LTRA, Winter and SummerAssessments along with EIA data filings. Within

    member companies expected forced outage

    rates for all generation units are provided by , i.e.

    nuclear, fossil, hydro, etc.

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    The transmission systems within SERC are

    planned, designed, and operated such that the

    regions generating resources with an obligation

    to serve load or have firm contracts to serve load

    are not constrained. Typical resource adequacy

    studies (LOLE studies) do not considertransmission constraints. But limits are modeled

    by some members indirectly through limits on

    amount of off-system purchases.

    Summation of non-coincident peaks on a monthly

    or annual basis.

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    Load uncertainty related to many factors

    including economic conditions and weather is

    generally considered by SERC's members. Most

    produce a 50/50 forecast, Some use a 90/10

    forecast.

    SERC members are questioned and asked to

    quantify load forecast uncertainty. Information

    received is used in assessments. Memberstypically consider short term load uncertainty as

    including the impacts of extreme weather. Long

    term uncertainties include high and low economic

    scenarios, high and low electric prices, high and

    low gas prices, and outlook for large industrial

    customers.None to the best of our ability to determine.

    SERC staff extensively test the data received to

    determine if any data is missing.

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    All load serving entities within SERC report

    existing and future resources through the EIA-

    411 reporting process. This includes owned

    resources as well as merchant resources with a

    contractual arrangement. Only capacity reported

    through the EIA-411 is used in capacity margincalculations. Because significant capacity exist

    within SERC with no obligation to serve or firm

    contractual arrangement, there will continue to be

    additional generation above that which is

    reported in the capacity margin trend. Capacity

    margin calculations also assume the use of load

    management and interruptible contracts at the

    time of the annual peak. Market based

    mechanisms for capacity assurance are generally

    not applicable to SERC except in a few areasthat are part of organized markets (MISO, SPP,

    PJM). All resources reported in the region are

    tabulated as being a portion of the resource mix.

    Resources are being categorized consistent with

    the NERC LTRA guidelines. The load serving

    entities (LSE) may have their own selection

    process, including RFPs, to evaluate the capacity

    options. Capacity resources included in reliability

    assessments are generally proven technologies.

    See answer above. For the purposes of NERC

    Reliability Assessment reporting, SERC members

    are generally using the NERC Planning

    Committee and RAS guidance from the

    December 2007 meeting: "Planned" means

    construction has started with at least one of the

    following regulatory permits approved: Site

    permit, Construction permit, Environmental

    permit

    Or: Corporate management has approved atleast one of the following: Included in a capital

    budget BOD approved. All other resources are

    considered Uncertain

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    SERC members have been instructed to follow

    the NERC definitions for resource certainty in the

    current year's (2008) reporting.

    We do not have a recommendation at this time,

    but note that very few SERC members reported

    any "uncertain" capacity for the Summer 2008

    and the 2008 LTRA reporting cycle.

    Yes. SERC members monitor and develop

    contingency plans as needed to address these

    operational issues.

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    SERC members are aware of energy-limited

    resources that could impact resource availability

    and use various tools and practices to develop

    short-term operational and long-term plans to

    address these issues.

    SERC is not specifically assessing transmission

    limited resources as a result of the NERC

    Planning Committee decision to not do so this

    year. Some members may calculate accredited

    capacity of 4-6 hours duration based on legacy

    region (MAIN) criteria. At this time there is not

    much wind resource in SERC although in some

    portions of SERC it is expected to develop.

    There is no SERC standard approach. Projectedwind (or any other fuel type plant) project output

    is taken as reported by each SERC reporting

    member. MISO is using a rating for capacity

    determination set at 20% of the rated output of

    wind plants. Wind resources should be

    connected to the Ameren system in late 2008 or

    earl 2009.

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    Ratings for generating plants are reported based

    on the seasonal ratings established based on

    peak season ambient temperature, water, or

    other constraining conditions. Based on recent

    history, water temperatures and water availability

    would be included.Yes, for instance we have developed a drought

    study which examines the impact of the

    Southeast US drought on hydro and thermal

    plants (environmental permit related cooling

    system impacts) in the region. The NERC 2007

    LTRA reported for 2006 showing natural gas at

    15%, Coal at 44% , Nuclear at 16% and Hydro at

    6% of Summer peak demand. Also, some

    members have conducted interdependency

    studies between fuel delivery and resourceavailability. Specifically the RRS performed a

    gas-electricity interdependence assessment two

    years ago. No fuel supply problems are

    anticipated except for the recent drought related

    issues which may be abating.

    Deliverability to load is generally assessed

    through regional transmission assessmentstudies and studies carried out by Transmission

    Planning entities within the SERC region. Some

    sub areas have other approaches, for instance in

    MISO, generators that pass a deliverability test

    can be considered as a network resource for any

    of the MISO loads that choose to designate

    them. The load serving entities (LSE) may have

    their own selection process, including RFPs, to

    evaluate the capacity options.

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    In general within the SERC region there are

    significant demand response programs. These

    programs allow demand to be reduced or

    curtailed when needed to maintain reliability.

    Traditional load management and interruptible

    programs such as air conditioning load controland large industrial interruptible services are

    utilized within the region.

    EE is considered at the member level. SERC

    does not generally obtain this information,

    however for 2008 there are categories of

    reporting which include such information.

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    NDDR is considered at the member level.

    DEDR is considered at the member level.

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    DCDR is considered at the member level.

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    Emergency Operating procedures vary by

    member.

    Some members rely on public appeals to reduce

    load for capacity reserve deficiencies.

    SERC takes the assessments of such

    transactions as put forward by our SERC

    members in the data survey process.

    Import and export categories are considered

    certain as reported

    Yes- we strive to match up buyers and sellers

    reporting transactions when reporting

    transactions. These are reconciled at the regional

    reporting level.

    Past experience with import plans and

    projections made by members through the twice

    yearly surveys.

    They are not

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    There is no process in place.

    Probabilistic assessments are not performed by

    SERC, although some members perform such

    assessments at the member level. They are

    typically performed on an annual basis by

    members10,15, or 20 years depending on the member.

    Some members use probability methods others

    use deterministic methods. Some use LOLP

    others LOLE, others use a capacity or reserve

    margin approach not driven by a probabilistic

    assessment.Answer not available at this time for those

    members performing such assessments.

    Scenarios are modeled from time to time

    depending on the issue. For instance for Summer

    2008 SERC has prepared a Drought

    Assessment. SERC is also at the time of this

    submittal considering participating in arenewables assessment.

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    In general, operating procedures seek voluntary

    load reduction through public appeals, reactive

    power dispatch and generation redispatch are

    tools that are available to operators in the SERC

    region. We would not be pursuing operating

    remedies if peak demands are higher thanexpected. Typically, only if operating reserves are

    at risk would there be implementation of DSM or

    public appeals, or voltage reduction, etc.

    Not Applicable in the SERC region.

    SERC members have generally adopted the

    NERC 2008 LTRA definitions which identifies this

    component separately

    SERC members are generally applying the

    NERC 2008 LTRA model definition which

    identifies this component separately

    Yes, by each reporting member company

    consistent with their respective experience.

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    resource adequacy is assessed on a state

    jurisdictional basis by each member company

    and generally not through organized markets,

    ISOs, RTOs except where such exist (MISO,

    SPP, PJM) in parts of the SERC footprint

    No there are no benchmarks or established

    metrics but, depending on the company, state

    and subregion; for the SERC region as a whole

    one can say that there is general acceptance ofcapacity margins in the range of 10-15%

    Yes, the state of Georgia.

    Not generally applicable in the SERC region

    except for portions of SERC in SPP, MISO andPJM.

    No response

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    Response to SurveySPP

    The lastest study is under progress. It will bemade available at a later date.

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    SPP uses a 12% reserve margin which based on

    historical LOLE studies(approximately a 1 day in

    ten years)

    To verify LOLE, a 3-5 year out case is used, with

    Monte Carlo simulations.

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    To inform resource planners who are SPP

    members.

    Data is used from member data submissions

    annually relevant to forecast and historical figures

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    Interface limits are modeled as well as significant

    OTDF flowgates. Binding transmission forces

    local generation to serve load, if none is available

    then load is shed

    Each SPP member annually provides a tenyear

    forecast of peak demand and net energy

    requirements. The forecasts are developed in

    accordance with generally recognizedmethodologies.The resultant SPP forecast is the

    total of the member forecasts. High and

    lowgrowth rates and unusual weather scenario

    bands are then produced for the SPP regional

    and subregional demand and energy forecasts

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    Based on weather, economic trends, etc.

    Changes over time

    No

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    EIA-411,LTRA,Supply Adequacy Audit

    EIA-411 data submitted by members

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    Existing Capacity includes Certain and Uncertain

    Capacities. Planned Capacity is a resouce that is

    already under construction or has a signed

    interconnection agreement in place. Proposed

    Capacity is a resource that has been announced

    but does not have a signed interconnectionagreement.

    No suggestion at this time

    Studies show LOLP problems throughout the

    year based on standard FOR and results of the

    simulation. Maintenance is done on SPP

    generating units in the off peak season, whereenough generation is present in the surrounding

    system to cover any unexpected system

    conditions based on the reserve sharing

    re uirements.

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    They are included with a uncertainty distribution

    in the program

    These resources are currenly being derated

    appropriately for resource adequacy assessment.

    Wind is rated based on historical data, and astandard uncertainty distribution

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    Units that have a specific derating for peak load

    conditions are modeled as such on an individual

    basis.

    SPP consults its generation owners and

    contolling members each year to monitor fuel

    supplies. SPP criteria requires members to keep

    a sufficient amount of standby fuel on hand to

    help if there are any deliveribilty concerns. There

    are no concerns known to SPP at this time.Coal-

    fired plants make approx. 48% and natural gas

    power plants make up approx. 44% of SPP total

    generation.

    SPP defines firm deliverability as electric power

    intended to be continuously available to the buyereven under adverse conditions; i.e., power for

    which the seller assumes the obligation to

    provide capacity (including SPP defined capacity

    margin) and energy. Such power must meet

    standards of reliability and availability as that

    delivered to native load customers. Power

    purchased can be considered to be firm power

    only if firm transmission service is in place to the

    load serving member for delivery of such power.

    SPP does not include financial firm contractstowards this category

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