Upload
jordan-dawson
View
223
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
RTT Analysis WorkshopSpecies Status and Trend
(Chapter 1)
Casey BaldwinRTT Chairperson
WDFW Research Scientist
Session 1. Species status and trend
How are the fish doing with respect to the VSP parameters?
VSP = Viable Salmonid Population1)Abundance2)Productivity3)Spatial structure4)Diversity
Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?
• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is juvenile productivity of naturally produced fish increasing within each population?
Presentations / papers
1) Cooney et al. update to status assessments since the Recovery Plan.
2) Weigel et al.- genetic variation of O. mykiss for a portion of the Methow Population
3) RTT- after the workshop- Juvenile productivity (smolt trap summaries)
UC Spring Chinook = high riskUC Steelhead = high risk
Species status and trend
Species status and trend
Species status and trend
UC Spring Chinook: Updated AP Status Metrics
Wenatchee River Spring ChinookViability Curve
Species status and trendWenatchee
OkanoganEntiat
Methow
Spatial Structure
Spring Chinook = Low Risk for all populations
Steelhead = Low Risk for all populations, except Okanogan
•Recent restoration efforts in Salmon Creek and Omak Creek are likely to reduce the risk level in future status updates.
Homogenization
11 01 1 10 0 0 00 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 00 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 00 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 10 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 10 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 00 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0
Upper Columbia Chinook
0
0 0
0 0 0.01
0 0 0.1 0.06
0.02 0 0.02 0.37 0.19
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.22
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0.04 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.04 0.45 0.21 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.15 0.14 0 0 0.03
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.01 0 0 0.01 0.18 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.63 0 0.48
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.09 0.02 0 0 0.02 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.01
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0.11
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.26 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.62 0.01
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.41 0 0
0 0 0 0.02 0.01 0.08 0 0.04 0.06 0.02 0 0.01 0.05 0.06 0 0.01 0 0.04 0 0 0.08 0.01 0.07 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0 0.31 0.36 0.09 0.16 0.02
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.51 0.19 0.46 0 0.03 0.03
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.04 0.01 0.21 0 0.06 0
0.01 0 0 0 0.02 0.21 0 0 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.99 0.09 0.44 0 0.23 0.1 0.62 0.05
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.17 0 0.08 0 0.04 0.12 0 0.06
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.01 0.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.36 0.13 0 0.87 0.03 0.22 0.06 0.52 0.03 0.04
0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.02 0 0 0 0 0.01 0 0.01 0 0.02 0 0 0.02 0.48 0 0 0.15 0.2 0.23 0 0.06 0 0.04
Snake River Chinook
Diversity UpdateGenetic Homogenization
Spawner Composition TrendsWenatchee Spring Chinook
Year
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
pHO
S
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Annual estimateLinear regression12 yr geomean
pHOS = % hatchery spawners. high = bad
DiversityManagement Action: ENFH stopped releasing out-of-ESU origin hatchery spring Chinook (2007).
Species status and trend
SS/D ratingVery Low Low Moderate High
A/P
ratin
g
Very Low (<1%)
highly viablemaintained
Low (<5%) viable
Moderate (<25%)
maintained
High high riskSteelheadEntiatMethowWenatcheeOkanogan Spring Chinook
EntiatMethowWenatchee
Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?
Summary: Current trends in the data have little adaptive management significance given that populations are still so far from recovery levels and that they are based on such a short time series.
Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters
1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed
2. Need to define a “trend”
Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?
• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters
1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed
2. Need to define a “trend”
Adaptive Management RecommendationsVSP parameters
1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed
2. Need to define a “trend”
3. Need to incorporate Canadian Okanogan
Key Management Questions:• Is the status of the population/ESU/DPS improving?
• Is the abundance of naturally produced adult fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the population productivity of naturally produced fish trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the spatial structure of the populations trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is the phenotypic and genotypic diversity of the population trending to the recovery criteria for each population?
• Is juvenile productivity of naturally produced fish increasing within each population?
Juvenile Productivity
• Summary table (smolt trap summary)• Snapshot of some data (smolts/redd)• Discuss the future
Juvenile Productivity
Juvenile ProductivitySummary
Table
Watershed/River Operator Years of operation
Estimate total smolt
production?
Smolts / redd
Source/comments
White River YN 2007-present Yes Yes Data is reported to GPUD.
Nason Creek YN 2004-present (7)
Yes Yes Data is reported to BPA and ISEMP
Chiwawa R WDFW 1991-present
(19) Yes Yes CPUD Hatchery M&E report
Lake Wenatchee Trap
WDFW 1997-present
(14) Yes No
Only valid for Sockeye, CPUD Hatchery M&E report
Monitor (lower Wenatchee)
WDFW 2000-present Yes Yes
WDFW database, CPUD Hatchery M&E report does
not report smolt production for spring Chinook or
steelhead from the Monitor trap.
Lower Entiat USFWS 2007-present (lower trap)
Yes? Yes? ISEMP is planning to estimate production estimate after 5 yrs.
Lower Methow WDFW 2002-present
(9) Yes Yes
only reported through 2007 (WDFW annual report to
DPUD)
Twisp WDFW 2002-present
(9) Yes Yes
only reported through 2007 (WDFW annual report to
DPUD)
Lower Okanogan CCT 2006-present
(4) Yes No
OBMEP annual reports; high uncertainty on the
total production estimates due to low trap efficiency
Omak Ck CCT 2007-present
(4) No No
Unpublished data available through the Colville Tribes
Adaptive Management RecommendationsJuvenile Productivity
1. Change will be slow, more actions are needed
2. Need to define a “trend”
3. Evaluate statistics (variance, autocorrelation, duration) within and between trapping locations.
Questions?