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RUSSIA: AFTER THE 1998 CURRENCY CRISIS Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. - In: International Financial Governance under Stress. Global Structures versus National Imperatives. Edited by Geoffrey R. D. Underhill, Xiaoke Zhang, Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Economic Growth (co-authored with V. Polterovich). In: Slavic Eurasias Integration into the World Economy. Ed. By S. Tabata and A. Iwashita. Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 2004.
Chart2
-3-315
-5-5160
-14.5-14.52510
-8.7-8.7840
-12.7-12.7215
-4.1-4.1131
-3.4-3.421.8
0.90.911
-4.9-4.984.4
5.45.436.5
8.38.320.2
5518.6
4.34.315.1
7.37.312
7.27.211.7
6.4200510.9
GDP growth rates
Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)
CPI
GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increase
199015
1991160
19922510
1993840
1994215
1995131
199621.8
199711
199884.4
199936.5
200020.2
200118.6
200215.1
200312
200411.7
200510.9
CPI, monthly rates
Jan-9517.8
Feb-9511
Mar-958.9
Apr-958.5
May-957.9
Jun-956.7
Jul-955.4
Aug-954.6
Sep-954.5
Oct-954.7
Nov-954.5
Dec-953.2
Jan-964.1
Feb-962.8
Mar-962.8
Apr-962.2
May-961.6
Jun-961.2
Jul-960.8
Aug-96-0.3
Sep-960.3
Oct-961.2
Nov-961.9
Dec-961.4
Jan-972.3
Feb-971.6
Mar-971.4
Apr-970.9
May-970.9
Jun-971.1
Jul-970.9
Aug-97-0.1
Sep-97-0.4
Oct-970.2
Nov-970.7
Dec-970.9
Jan-981.5
Feb-980.9
Mar-980.7
Apr-980.4
May-980.5
Jun-980.1
Jul-980.1
Aug-983.7
Sep-9838.4
Oct-98
Nov-98
Dec-98
GDP growth rates
1990-3
1991-5
1992-14.5
1993-8.7
1994-12.7
1995-4.1
1996-3.4
19970.9
1998-4.9
19995.4
20008.3
20015
20024.3
20037.3
20047.2
20056.4
ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP
1990378.8
199120.8
19921.9107.785.4
199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5
199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1
199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3
199690.567.423.112.1-8.111.2-7.3125429.2
199788.971.717.32.9-7.312.9-7.5135447
1998 (1st half)72.5714.3-12-5.311.2-7159.6450
1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6
1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6
1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7
1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5
1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2
1998/211.2
1998/38.5
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR
199336.143.3-7.20.2
199434.645-10.410.6
199532.237.7-5.576.657.79435.7
199626.135-8.9237.158.40775.74
199727.936.3-8.4384.90.374136
199824.530.4-5.9436138
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP
19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.7
19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.81585
199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2
199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586
July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8
Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689
Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454
Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65
Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346
Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--
Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484
China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412
Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081
Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89
Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353
Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308
Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845
Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761
Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754
Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024
Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779
Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805
Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972
Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477
Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508
Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562
Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963
Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558
Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033
Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31
Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007
Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198
Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698
Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916
Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292
Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792
Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926
Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828
Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213
Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84
Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027
Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846
Sheet1
17.8
11
8.9
8.5
7.9
6.7
5.4
4.6
4.5
4.7
4.5
3.2
4.1
2.8
2.8
2.2
1.6
1.2
0.8
-0.3
0.3
1.2
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.6
1.4
0.9
0.9
1.1
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.7
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
3.7
38.4
36069
36100
36130
Monthly inflation
Sheet2
15
160
2510
840
215
131
21.8
11
84.4
36.5
20.2
18.6
15.1
12
11.7
10.9
2510
Figure 2. Annual inflation rates in Russia (December-to-December increase in CPI, log scale)
Sheet3
9.52.1-5.219935.85.8
21.110.4-4.7-0.444
17.54.5-6.7-7.914.414.4
23.112.1-7.3-8.111.211.2
17.32.9-7.5-7.312.912.9
4.3-12-7-5.311.211.2
&A
Page &P
Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*Year end,excluding gold
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
44.434.9
69.648.5
81.564
90.567.4
88.971.7
72.571
Export
Import
Trade surplus
(1st half)
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
Exp
Gov rev
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
0.7357131161117.164286883944.5
2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8
7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4
9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732
12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
GKO-OFZ
CBR credits to the government
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
7.27.2
6.42005
Fig. 1. GDP growth rates in Russia, %, 1990-2004
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100121.6
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%, and gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $
. 1. , %, 1990-2004
GDP growth rates
Inflation (CPI, Dec. to Dec.)
CPI
GDP growth rates and inflation (right axis, log scale) in Russia, %, 1990-2005
Chart2
-31990
-51991
-14.51.95
-8.75.8
-12.76.5
-4.117.2
-3.415.3
0.917.8
-4.912.2
6.412.5
1028
5.134.5
4.747.8
7.376.9
7.2124.5
6.4182.2
GDP growth rates
FOREX
GDP growth rates
Gross reserves
Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale) and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $, left log scale
Sheet1
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
Poland142
Slovenia126
Slovakia121
Hungary120
Uzbekistan115
Czech Republic114
Turkmenistan112
Estonia112
Belarus111
Kazakhstan103
Romania100
Armenia98
Croatia94
Latvia90
Bulgaria89
Lithuania89
Russia82
Kyrgyzstan80
Azerbaijan72
Tajikistan69
Ukraine57
Georgia45
Moldova44
CAUCASUS
CENTRAL ASIA
Real incomesReal wagesProductivity
20018.719.95.8
200211.116.25.1
20031510.97.3
20049.910.65.2
20058.89.74.9
Sheet1
100100100100100100100100100100
88.495.397.596.598.894.490.99696.61990
82.286.883.38587.482.280.391.285.41991
84.38277.982.484.67574.47873.71992
87.684.37581.985.176.171.171.263.21993
92.188.878.684.38779.172.362.248.71994
98.692.584.185.592.184.773.959.642.71995
104.695.789.686.696.588.266.457.538.51996
111.8100.195.190.695.682.161.75837.21997
117.1103.999.29594.676.163.955.336.61998
121.9109.3101.199.395.175.265.457.136.51999
126.8114.3103.3104.598.276.568.96338.72000
128117.8106.7108.3101.380.671.76642.22001
129.8121.5111.4111.9103.384.575.16944.22002
133.7124.3115.7115.3106.488.178.573472003
CentralEurope
South Eastern Europe
FSU (Russia, Ukraine)
Poland
Slovenia
Slovak Republic
Hungary
Czech Republic
Romania
Bulgaria
Russia
Ukraine
Aver
Fig. 2. GDP change in selected transition economies, 1989 = 100%
Sheet2
14.788.1650654
15.687.7106063
19.387.98328176
17.287.98328176
15.187.89238994
15.986.52901264
15.786.8016881
15.586.16544536
15.186.89257992
14.387.43793084
15.586.52901264
15.386.89257992
1488.3467205357
15.289.1498725405
16.588.4359596473
18.289.3283507639
2088.0790032007
24.588.8821552056
24.589.5960680988
23.988.8821552056
23.188.9713943172
22.989.6853072105
16.890.577698327
17.891.0238938852
15.489.6853072105
1590.3992201037
16.989.4175898755
1690.0422636571
14.686.204981856
16.286.6511774143
18.481.1183524919
12.578.6196573656
12.776.0317231277
13.679.6905267054
12.882.2784609433
12.285.0448734045
11.686.7077695201
11.485.9065683643
10.888.3101718315
11.288.2211494809
11.990.5357305975
12.292.3161776102
11.993.6515128697
11.294.8978257786
11.295.8770716357
11.890.8027976494
11.594.0966246229
12.594.0076022723
12.995.7
13.799.4
15.597.8
17.196.8
19.699.1
21100.2
23.3100.5
23.7101.5
25101.8
25.9101.8
27.7102.7
27.9102.7
27.5103.1
27.6102.5
29.1102.4
30.9103.6
32.8106.1
34.3103.9
35.8105
36.8106.6
36.9105.7
36.8107
35.9107.5
34.5105.4
36.6105.4
36.4104.5
36.9106.2
37.3108.1
39.2109
42.2108.5
43.6113.2
43.3110.2
44.3110.0001996761
45.6109.4357212668
46.8108.9216178811
48.2108.9392336869
47.8109.9177899649
49.2111.0061549032
53.1112.2092835358
55.5113.0284185065
59.8113.564927961
64.9114.125543255
64.4114.9902629863
64.5116.325355638
62.8116
62.1116.8
64.9117.7
68.2118.8
76.9119.6
84120.1
86.338047
FOREX
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
Source: Russian Economic Trends, Goskomstat, CBR.
Fig. 8. Index of industrial output (2000 = 100%, left scale) and foreign exchange reserves, bln dollars (right scale)
Sheet3
15.15.615.331985
13.23.410.11.81989
15.432.91.85
8.914.93.24.70.5
9.77.55.92.20.5
8.22.11.51.21.1
22.321.819898.11989
16.47.719962.82
POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
Source: (Popov, 2000).
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 5. Government expenditure, % of GDP
87
63
68
189
89
69
86
45
52
52
42
35
83
104
88
51
90
96
57
42
84
156
39
38
70
31
56
37
China (1979-86)
Vietnam
Armenia
Source: (Popov, 2000).
Decrease in the share of government revenues in GDP from 1989-91 to 1993-96, p.p.
1996 GDP as a % of 1989 GDP
Fig. 4 Change in government revenues and GDP
65.844.2-21.61992
43.336.1-7.21993
4534.6-10.41994
37.732.2-5.51995
3526.1-8.91996
36.327.9-8.41997
30.424.5-5.9-11000
26.325.1-1.226.3
26.529.42.926.5
26.729.62.926.7
27.330.22.927.3
29.831.11.329.8
27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
Surplus
Exp
Gov rev
Def
Figure 2. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.69799.693.510288.3102.99598.49610392.696.687.697.6
84.94101.195.886.780.897.287.792.289.691.491.297.8576.785.469.680.5
82.2489.986.684.169.392.167.96070.564.97879.336.473.738.457.1
82.7887.880.176.463.182.852.251.159.157.771.266.63163.228.656.4
86.1684.17066.861.868.541.951.253.352.662.253.232.748.725.438.8
90.5683.463.761.364.563.6375155.146.159.650.334.942.72638.3
94.684.764.461.66759.337.452.557.64457.553.93738.528.735.3
98.6486.871.162.774.152.639.65761.844.85859.238.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.161.577.655.343.659.26547.255.360.540.836.632.732.7
105.3494.379.762.677.164.146.859.362.348.957.162.742.236.533.731.2
109.4297.984.368.782.875.45263.364.8536366.144.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.37888.184.357.168.36958.46669.64942.23633.8
115.58102.492.485.493.488.663.272.573.663.76969.255.444.23836.2
119.08102.99693.197.697.269.177.27868.87372.860.3474138.2
12411010610310510477858476787866534441
128.411511411311211193929082828073554844
Central Europe
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Kazakhstan
Estonia
Turkmenistan
Azerbaijan
Latvia
Lithuania
Tajikistan
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Ukraine
Georgia
Moldova
Fig. 2. GDP change in FSU economies, 1989 = 100%
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
Slovakia
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100124.5
110182.2
RER
FOREX
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
Fig. 8. Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%(left scale), and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $ (right log scale)
133.513.518.214.8
138.319.51020
132.815.77.721.5
117.212922.3
104.29.711.323.8
97.77.514.233.8
997.824.850.3
97.48.232.576.4
72.29.243.5103.4
Government
CB (including government debt to IMF)
Banks
Non-financial enterprises
Fig. Russia's external debt, billion $
-31990
-51991
-14.51.95
-8.75.8
-12.76.5
-4.117.2
-3.415.3
0.917.8
-4.912.2
6.412.5
1028
5.134.5
4.747.8
7.376.9
7.2124.5
6.4182.2
GDP growth rates
FOREX
GDP growth rates
Gross reserves
Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale) and year end gross foreign exchange reserves, including gold, bln. $, left log scale
8.77.2197019701970
9.810.3197519751975
1112.91980198034.8
11.310.5991.838.5431.1
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.7
11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4
11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5
12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731
14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1
15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1
1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4
14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939
13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738
13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935
14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139
15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539
15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940
16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6
16.429.5190721.865457184335.9
1627.32007.420249653321.844660194234.3
16.124.82477.142857142921.463414634132
Mortality rate (per 1000)
Murder rate (death statistics)
Crime rate
Murder rate (crime statistics)
Suicide rate
Crime rate (left scale), mortality rate (per 1000), murder rates and suicide rate (right scale) per 100,000 inhabitants
1994Q11994Q3
1994Q21994Q4
1994Q31302
1994Q41588.3333333333
-3.34101848051690.6666666667
-0.42178933941629.3333333333
-4.20599655161699.3333333333
0.62483090361824.6666666667
6.82199406141678
4.77661308231690.3333333333
4.26994498581848.3333333333
1.84993127812051.6666666667
3.40074247742075.3333333333
4.12671009832308.3333333333
0.93592158932168.3333333333
4.87698830651831.3333333333
1.19372104691805.6666666667
-0.33815686961820
9.69431637981395.3333333333
-3.85313926251265
-11.54082010981222.6666666667
-14.38728306751132.6666666667
-22.06188781081103.6666666667
-9.0799290021565.3333333333
-3.03893972951977.3333333333
-1.46397941862318.6666666667
-1.13343629142715
0.60967041882685.3333333333
2.29928714872962.6666666667
5.63605156582931.3333333333
4.64510112752519.6666666667
6.61154624372470
5.46303228462397.6666666667
3.38920939471793.3333333333
4.99084228841927
3.29717782062439.3333333333
1.86912339482633.6666666667
1.42740226242607.6666666667
0.5108013563139
-0.00170982822656
3.23256119632803
4.03393640752843.6666666667
5.05887887593191
6.48661472263480.6666666667
2005Q13943.3333333333
2005Q24149.6666666667
2005Q3
2005Q4
Cons-GDP
Oil price, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters
Difference between annual (quarter to previous year quarter) real private consumption and GDP growth rates (left scale)) and oil prices, cents a barrel, lagged 2 quarters (right scale)
2004 as a % of 1989 - EBRD Tr.Rep 2005
GDP in 2004 as a % of 1989
Hungary
19851985198519850.593
19900.8130.7850.7980.627
19950.7710.7520.7510.683
200020000.7750.7620.721
0.8090.7950.790.7770.745
0.8170.7950.7860.7660.755
Cuba
Russia
Belarus
Ukraine
China
Human Development Index for China, Belarus, Russia and Ukraine
9.71950
19511951
19521952
9.11953
19541954
8.267
7.61956
7.81957
7.268
195968.6
7.11960
196169
196269
19631963
19641964
7.370
196670
19671967
19681968
19691969
8.268.93
197169.5
19721972
19731973
19741974
9.368.13
9.568
9.61977
9.71978
10.167.9
10.367.61
10.268
10.168.2
10.41983
10.867.9
10.668.4
9.869.6
9.969.8
10.169.5
1069.5
10.369.3
11.469.01
12.267.89
14.565.14
15.763.98
1564.64
14.265.89
13.866.64
13.667.02
14.765.93
15.465.27
15.665.3
16.364.8
16.465.1
1665.2
16.465
Mortality (left scale)
Life expectancy (right scale)
Mortality rate (per 1000)
Life exp
Moratlity rate, per 1000 inhabitants
Average life expectancy, years
Mortality rate (per 1000) and average life expectancy, years
Real wages
Real incomes
Productivity
Annual growth rates of real wages, real incomes and productivity, %
40921-12589
1461-244413866
16574411-11584
168145775-35834
14928618-5434
1102-946-14108
-463-10334-21832
216-653-6449
-722960-1755
-1769-48806180
2073597-9419
FDI
Portfolio investment
Other investment
Inflows (+) abd outlows (-) of capital to and from Russia, mln. $
-12159
12883
-5516
11622
4676
-13952
-32629
-6886
1133
-469
-6749
Foreign investment, total
5014.285714285735.71428571430
35.675675675714.054054054135.675675675717.0886075949
46.30186410117.9194227327.84125075178.6218158067
47.09570957122.557755775625.74257425744.8261546445
52.089604480219.075953797725.43927196363.5144927536
52.332281176419.610200911923.80880805654.4372351002
54.753468516521.067235859121.97652081112.2523898904
58.739845298719.147199440315.29521514367.3165644684
53.543290761314.579532260714.830403051920.5498625344
46.187855891415.091162943518.693878668425.0423620026
49.166258515516.362037490521.852041497814.4422221939
51.317350836217.737419809420.121815552312.1370577901
50.401301028517.547320393320.742670421212.7506409277
49.589562478416.712801116821.07369978414.4478202984
48.670597657316.195431745521.131806835116.2819954253
Private consumption
Government consumption
Investment
Net export
Structure of Russian GDP, %
100100
94.863.1
93.944.5
90.930.6
88.527.3
86.223.5
88.622.5
86.712.4
85.711.5
90.520.2
96.723.6
103.423
109.926
12029.6
130.3233
Consumption
Investment
Growth of real investment and total (private and government) consumption, 1991=100%
5.71
2.70
80
2.70.396039604
6.9-0.1972386588
-1.62.9644268775
5.62.6871401152
10.23.9252336449
7.35.5755395683
61.7035775128
5.7-0.5025125628
9.61.0101010101
10.92.1666666667
15.211.0929853181
12.64.845814978
8.55.4621848739
11.212.7490039841
10.78.7161366313
4.18.3423618635
2.75.1
10.69.5147478592
14.314.5091225022
13.519.6509863429
12.813.1896005073
10.55.9383753501
9.60.7403490217
8.8-2.3622047244
7.8-2.1505376344
7.10.9340659341
7.90
7.3-0.8
81.2
9.1
GDP growth
GDP deflator
GDP growth rates (lagged one year) and inflation (GDP deflator) in China, % a year
19901990
-3160
-52509
-14.5840
-8.7215
-12.7131
-4.122
-3.411
0.984
-4.936.5
6.420.2
1018.6
5.115.1
4.712
7.311.7
7.210.9
6.4
GDP growth rates
Inflation
GDP growth rates
Inflation,%( CPI,Dec-to-Dec)
Fig. GDP growth rates (%, right scale, lagged 1 year) and inflation, % ( left log scale)
100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
95.3101.693.51029799.695102.99610388.398.492.696.687.697.6
84.94101.180.897.295.886.789.692.291.297.8587.791.476.785.469.680.5
82.2489.969.392.186.684.170.5607879.367.964.936.473.738.457.1
82.7887.863.182.880.176.459.151.171.266.652.257.73163.228.656.4
86.1684.161.868.57066.853.351.262.253.241.952.632.748.725.438.8
90.5683.464.563.663.761.355.15159.650.33746.134.942.72638.3
94.684.76759.364.461.657.652.557.553.937.4443738.528.735.3
98.6486.874.152.671.162.761.8575859.239.644.838.137.231.835.7
101.9690.677.655.377.161.56559.255.360.543.647.240.836.632.732.7
105.3494.377.164.179.762.662.359.357.162.746.848.942.236.533.731.2
109.4297.982.875.484.368.764.863.36366.1525344.738.734.331.9
112.4298.388.184.388.3786968.36669.657.158.44942.23633.8
115.58102.493.488.692.485.473.672.56969.263.263.755.444.23836.2
119.08102.997.697.29693.17877.27372.869.168.860.3474138.2
: EBRD.
. 1. , 1989 .= 100%
65.844.2-21.61992
43.336.1-7.21993
4534.6-10.41994
37.732.2-5.51995
3526.1-8.91996
36.327.9-8.41997
30.424.5-5.9-11000
26.325.1-1.226.3
26.529.42.926.5
26.729.62.926.7
27.330.22.927.3
29.831.11.329.8
27.805206570232.34619281474.540986244527.8052065702
: .
Exp
Gov rev
Def
. 4. , %
133.513.518.214.8
138.319.51020
132.815.77.721.5
117.212922.3
104.29.711.323.8
97.77.514.233.8
93725.567.6
97.1832.573.7
: .
( )
. 5. , . .
-3-3
-5-5
-14.5-14.5
-8.7-8.7
-12.7-12.7
-4.1-4.1
-3.4-3.4
0.90.9
-4.9-4.9
5.45.4
8.38.3
55
4.34.3
7.37.3
20047
: .
. 3. , %, 1990-2004 .
4.21991
15.31.95
63.65.8
59.76.5
82.417.2
100.115.3
104.417.8
91.612.2
64.912.5
71.528
7534.5
8547.8
9576.9
100124.5
: .
Real effective exchange rate, Dec. 1995=100%
. 6. (1995=100%) - , . .
8.77.2197019701970
9.810.3197519751975
1112.91980198034.8
11.310.5991.838.5431.1
10.4
10.5
10.7
10.7
11.214.31246.675355450210.572511848326.4
11.415.21458.123893805310.828318584126.5
12.222.81856.753982300915.469026548731
14.530.61899.506873614219.811973392538.1
15.731.61736.81252609621.30855949942.1
1530.71867.549448123621.483222958141.4
14.226.61785.87365728920.001023017939
13.823.91637.013428571420.007714285738
13.6231767.372023809520.261904761935
14.726.22058.75759162321.330366492139
15.428.32032.917761557221.89635036539
15.629.82061.89603729623.339860139940
16.330.91782.25273972622.786986301438.6
16.429.5190721.865457184335.9
1627.32007.420249653321.844660194234.3
16.124.82477.142857142921.463414634132
( )
( )
100 .
(), 100 .
, , 1970-2004.
Chart2
6.17.65.625.361961
1.916.424.777.551962
-2.257.347.0681963
3.455.363.456.831964
0.957.685.278.181965
2.857.824.4311.121966
1.123.865.328.621967
12.037.984.958.121968
7.484.894.656.551969
8.155.993.7711.411970
75.755.434.91971
7.889.385.454.281972
9.7811.78.9210.241973
8.268.313.564.471974
6.180.85.574.971975
5.9911.568.819.331976
8.647.765.69.841977
9.216.655.1710.31978
7.099.355.645.371979
8.727.445.155.171980
8.156.943.425.911981
1.15.943.625.351982
8.456.251.875.581983
7.177.76-7.325.751984
3.48-1.12-7.314.651985
5.961.153.425.531986
5.35.394.319.521987
6.369.946.7513.291988
9.089.066.2112.191989
99.013.0411.17-3
8.939.55-0.588.56-5.05
7.228.890.348.08-14.53
7.259.892.128.25-8.67
7.549.214.398.99-12.57
8.49.834.689.24-4.14
7.64105.855.9-3.6
4.77.325.19-1.371.4
-13.13-7.36-0.58-10.51-5.3
0.796.143.44.456.4
4.928.865.974.7510
3.830.321.762.175.09
4.384.154.455.324.74
4.15.34.56.97.3
5.17.16.16.27.1
5.955.14.56.4
1997
1998
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Russian Federation
GDP growth rates in selected SEA countries and in Russia, %
SEA-Growth
COUNTRY_NAME196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005COUNTRY_NAME
Indonesia6.11.91-2.253.450.952.851.1212.037.488.1577.889.788.266.185.998.649.217.098.728.151.18.457.173.485.965.36.369.0898.937.227.257.548.47.644.7-13.130.794.923.834.384.15.15.9Indonesia
Malaysia7.66.427.345.367.687.823.867.984.895.995.759.3811.78.310.811.567.766.659.357.446.945.946.257.76-1.121.155.399.949.069.019.558.899.899.219.83107.32-7.366.148.860.324.155.37.15Malaysia
Philippines5.624.777.063.455.274.435.324.954.653.775.435.458.923.565.578.815.65.175.645.153.423.621.87-7.32-7.313.424.316.756.213.04-0.580.342.124.394.685.855.19-0.583.45.971.764.454.56.15.1Philippines
Russian Federation-3-5.05-14.53-8.67-12.57-4.14-3.61.4-5.36.4105.094.747.37.16.4Russian Federation
Thailand5.367.5586.838.1811.128.628.126.5511.414.94.2810.244.474.979.339.8410.35.375.175.915.355.585.754.655.539.5213.2912.1911.178.568.088.258.999.245.9-1.37-10.514.454.752.175.326.96.24.5Thailand
SEA-Growth
1997
1998
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Russian Federation
GDP growth rates in selected SEA countries and in Russia, %
Chart4
97
96.5
96.8
96.8
96.7
95.2
95.5
94.8
95.6
96.2
95.2
95.6
97.1998586184
98.0834936967
97.2980402938
98.2798570475
96.9053135923
97.7889486706
98.5744020736
97.7889486706
97.887130346
98.672583749
99.6544005027
100.1453088796
98.672583749
99.4580371519
98.3780387229
99.0653104505
94.8434984095
95.3344067863
89.2471429132
86.4980560028
83.650787417
87.6762361073
90.5235046931
93.5671366296
93.7634999804
95.7271334878
99.7525821781
97.0617042116
99.6082272282
101.5670910872
103.0362389814
104.4074436827
104.9951028404
100.0979431929
103.5259549461
103.4280117532
105.582761998
107.541625857
106.4642507346
102.3506366308
109.3046033301
110.2840352595
111.361410382
115.05695
112.5547
Devaluation
Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%
Sheet1
CPIDec. to Dec., % increaseTrade debts to enterprisesTrade arrears to enterprisesArrears/debts ratio, %Trade arrears of enterprisesAll arrears of enterprises
1990156/1/9221212257.5471698113
19911607/1/9224415061.4754098361
199225108/1/9225115260.5577689243
19938409/1/9219512162.0512820513
199422010/1/921057268.5714285714
199513011/1/921567749.358974359
199621.812/1/921406546.4285714286
1997111/1/931446243.0555555556
199884.42/1/931285442.1875
199936.53/1/931134539.8230088496
2000184/1/931254737.6
CPI, monthly rates5/1/931406042.8571428571
J-9517.86/1/931355742.2222222222
F-95117/1/931315340.4580152672
M-958.98/1/931315541.9847328244
A-958.59/1/931395841.726618705
M-957.910/1/931446041.6666666667
J-956.711/1/931566742.9487179487
J-955.412/1/931607245
A-954.61/1/941939448.7046632124
S-954.52/1/942069948.0582524272
O-954.73/1/942001005093
N-954.54/1/9423211850.8620689655108
D-953.25/1/9424813052.4193548387147
J-964.16/1/9425313653.7549407115100144
F-962.87/1/9427514954.1818181818108164
M-962.88/1/9426614353.7593984962106160
A-962.29/1/9426215057.2519083969110166
M-961.610/1/9423414160.2564102564106163
J-961.211/1/9422113259.7285067873100157
J-960.812/1/949982128
A-96-0.31/1/959681131
S-960.32/1/959271129
O-961.23/1/957859111
N-961.94/1/958163119
D-961.45/1/958463126
J-972.36/1/957659117
F-971.67/1/959671142
M-971.48/1/958770137
A-970.99/1/959168144
M-970.910/1/958665138
J-971.111/1/959473156
J-970.912/1/958870148
A-97-0.11/1/96
S-97-0.42/1/96
O-970.23/1/96
N-970.74/1/96134157227
D-970.9
J-981.5
F-980.9
M-980.7
A-980.4
M-980.5
J-980.1
J-980.1
A-983.7
S-9838.4
O-984.5
N-985.7
D-9811.6
J-998.4
F-994.1051660517
M-992.7913159061
A-993.0172413793
M-992.2426778243
J-981.8988377803
J-982.8112449799
A-991.171875
S-991.46566
O-991.36194M3 (left scale)Prices (left scale)*Industrial output (right scale)*
N-991.221491Q199212.614.0-7.1
D-991.246982Q199215.615.01.5
J-002.344063Q199228.926.01.1
F-001.04813
M-000.65309
A-000.83069
M-001.7411
J-002.56696
J-001.81356
A-000.96188
S-00
GDP growth rates
1990-3
1991-5
1992-14.5
1993-8.7
1994-12.74Q199217.223.7-0.4
1995-4.11Q199315.120.0-5.9
1996-4.92Q199314.122.31.1
19970.63Q199317.016.3-3.4
1998-54Q199310.19.6-0.5
19993.21Q19946.86.0-1.3
200072Q199415.39.02.7
3Q19948.016.00.0
4Q19945.09.0-0.9
ExportsImportsTrade balanceCA balanceErrors & omissionsFOREX reserves, excluding gold, end of the periodDebt service paidExternal gov. debtGDP
1990378.8
199120.8
19921.9107.785.4
199344.434.99.52.15.8-5.2112.783.5
199469.648.521.110.4-0.44-4.7119.9277.1
199581.56417.54.5-7.914.4-6.7120.4363.3
199690.567.423.112.1-8.411.2-7.3125429.2
199788.971.717.53.6-7.612.9-7.5135447
1998 (1st half)73.568.94.6-11.7-6.811.2-8.2159.6450
1998 (2nd half)7154171-77.8-6
1997/184.815.163.9-2.512.4-1.6
1997/282.817.13.5-0.2-120.3-1.6
1997/386.818.33.4-1-1.218.7-1.7
1997/493.221.14.30.2-2.612.9-2.5
1998/17216.81.1-1.5-1.611.9-2.2
1998/211.2
1998/38.5
Gov revExpDef
199244.265.8-21.6
199336.143.3-7.2
199434.645-10.4
199532.237.7-5.5
199626.135-8.9
199727.936.3-8.4
199824.530.4-5.9
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBR
GKO-OFZCBR credits to the governmentGKO held by CBRDomestic nonGKO debtTotal domestic debtExternal debtGDP0.2
19941.73571311610.7357131161117.164286883918.944.5610.710.6
19954.8328075712.58044164042.25236593069.56719242914.433.8158576.657.79435.7
199610.77629306437.33387873833.4424143269.123706935719.928.42200.2237.158.40775.74
199714.88399071939.62490332565.25908739370.116009280715322586384.90.374136
July 1,199818.413717374812.58552242595.82819494890.58628262521935.52367.8436138
Table External indebtness in selected transition economies, Asian and Latin American countries, 1996, %
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Albania323.57536.245550656112.01190033472.240.3232.689
Armenia2710.70.314264.608487442111.55433287480.0810.1681.454
Azerbaijan101.33.61605.78386605785.78082191780.360.2113.65
Belarus2129.5121.51748128722.42427375171.9950.46919.346
Bosnia and Herzegovina53--000--
Bulgaria8920.59.2111.26135973339.1100801358.1880.8649.484
China178.719.7409.137963112613.70203038463.349111.728815.412
Croatia245.510532.816239540212.7875897492.42.4419.081
Czech Republic428.329.6191.751820008323.838586263412.43213.08554.89
Estonia91.326.4618.792256743114.70250402022.3760.644.353
Georgia26-4.7001.222-4.308
Hungary624112.5282.895565010721.92440628837.759.83244.845
Kazakhstan149.97.6887.74390095959.44559510621.0641.96120.761
Kyrgyz Republic379.21.173247.8098498623298.11858608890.4075.2291.754
Latvia92.39.41755.168571471614.84872611460.8460.7465.024
Lithuania162.912.2553.850320008310.81115824661.9520.8417.779
Moldova396.23.21393.920022728917.39612188371.2480.3141.805
Mongolia659.71.31960.211361920816.56378600820.8450.1610.972
Poland316.40.221611.802186103513.39931735540.06218.019134.477
Romania2312.69.8392.70303534088.85152641662.2543.14335.508
Russia259.69.5155.38048411373.69028649772.37516.258440.562
Slovak Republic4111.938.3130.803024551520.539998945315.7033.89518.963
Slovenia218.71.44210.003863599512.3774113590.2942.29718.558
Tajikistan240.11.9000.456-2.033
Turkmenistan1810.634.8006.264-4.31
Ukraine186.14.8518.64644429464.48110527870.8641.97244.007
Uzbekistan98.13.9000.351-25.198
Vietnam1233.514.531.8063636275.672664952917.8351.32423.34
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Argentina3144.213166.03614918266.69125681214.0319.719294.698
Brazil2641.119.8154.80805382487.96951861095.14859.685748.916
Chile4832.325.5170.674346660420.890540031212.2415.5274.292
Mexico4435.419.169.40238748935.83257664468.40419.527334.792
Peru4335.422.1189.816646756918.03827594139.50310.9960.926
Venezuela5116.88.2569.10505161323.79997325854.18216.0267.311
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
Indonesia6436.82553.68023451488.58883752241619.396225.828
Malaysia528.227.8194.474621524928.113251287614.45627.89299.213
Philippines5113.719.3142.346965681814.01121183219.84311.74783.84
Thailand5611.541.490.078376023720.883770697323.18438.645185.048
CountryDebt/GDPDebt service payments/export of goods and servicesShort term debt/total debtReserves/Short term debtReserves/GDPShort term debt/GDPReservesGDP
India2224.17.5423.68254161186.99076193661.6524.889356.027
Pakistan3927.49.454.97939227672.01554452093.6661.30764.846
Sheet1
1
Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
Sheet2
1
2510
Forecast
Figure 3. Annual (December-to-December) inflation rates in Russia
Sheet3
1
Forecast
Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %
111111
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Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*End of period,excluding gold
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
11
Export
Import
Trade surplus
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
11
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
#REF!
#REF!
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
1111
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
#REF!
#REF!
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
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Figure 4. Monthly inflation rates in Russia, %
%
Fig. 4. Monthly inflation rates, %
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2510
Forecast
Figure 3. Annual inflation rates in Russia (CPI, December-to-December increase)
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Figure 5. Russia's GDP growth rates, %
00000
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Trade balance
Current account
Debt service
Errors and omissions
Foreign exchange reserves*
*End of period,excluding gold
*End of the period, excluding gold.
Trade balance
Figure 9. Russia's balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves*, billion dollars
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Export
Import
Trade surplus
Figure 8. Russia's foreign trade, billion dollars
65.844.2
43.336.1
4534.6
37.732.2
3526.1
36.327.9
30.424.5
Revenues
Expenditure
Deficit
(1st half)
Exp
Gov rev
Figure 7. Consolidated government revenues and expenditure, % of GDP
0.7357131161117.164286883944.5
2.58044164042.25236593069.56719242933.8
7.33387873833.4424143269.123706935728.4
9.62490332565.25908739370.116009280732
12.58552242595.82819494890.586282625235.5
Short-term debt (GKO-OFZ) held by the banks
Short-term debt held by CBR
External debt
CBR credits to the government
CBR credits to the government
CBR credits to the government
GKO held by CBR
Domestic nonGKO debt
External debt
Figure 11. Government debt, % of GDP
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
*Lagged 4 months.
M3 (left scale)
Prices (left scale)*
Industrial output (right scale)*
Fig. 2. Average monthly growth rates of money supply (M3), prices and industrial output by quarters, %
00000
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Trade debts to enterprises
Trade arrears to enterprises
Arrears/debts ratio, %
Trade arrears of enterprises
All arrears of enterprises
%
Fig. 3. Trade debts and trade arrears of industrial enterprises, as a % of monthly industrial output
Stock prices $ indices, Dec. 1993=100%
Czech RepublicHungaryPolandRussia
D-199268.24790
J-1993
F-1993
M-1993
A-1993
M-1993
J-1993
J-1993
A-1993
S-1993
O-1993
N-1993
D-1993100100100100
J-1994100100
F-1994117.2109
M-1994137.9144.1134.1
A-1994114.8126.994.7
M-1994102.4123.295.6
J-199496.4114.560.9
J-199494.1116.578.3
A-199498.5127.395.2
S-199494114.664.6
O-199489.4119.564.1
N-199480.5108.148.5
D-199472.3103.953.3313
J-199569.782.143.4
F-199567.184.545.7
M-199562.483.551.4
A-199561.287.268.1188.4
M-199559.983.653.5231.3
J-199556.593.762.4261.1
J-199558.693.361.3299.3
A-199560.593.161.8247.6
S-199565.8100.950.6255.1
O-199564.389.655.4215.6
N-199559.58955.3205.3
D-199573.289.653.8216
J-199662.599.661.7224.4
F-199679.2115.770201.5
M-199684.2137.477.6203.1
A-199686.9145.482.3247.6
M-199691.3160.680.9280
J-199690.7172.989.2501.2
J-199692.4165.881.6350.2
A-199697.3168.579.9439.4
S-199697.8188.193.3423.4
O-199694.3188.691.8403.4
N-199686.5190.984.9429.9
D-199686.6194.485459.2
J-199790.5209.287.4485.5
F-199793.3250.699.4803.6
M-199783.7226.988.9737.5
A-199779.8238.786.7697.4
M-199766.9254.982.1825.6
J-199769270.881.6919.3
J-199764.3296.872.91077.7
A-199768.4297.879.71300
S-199771.8307.286.71204
O-199775.4314.388.21303.7
N-199758.5268.569.8800.4
D-199759.2308.366.9990.5
J-199856.8283.267.7815.5
F-199862.2298.979.5761.5
M-199864.2307.988.6790.5
A-199859.9303.383.5643.4
M-199862.327382.1573.3
J-199854254.972.7375.1
J-199862.626982.5378.4
A-199858231.167.2159
S-199851.1147.856.557.1
O-199849.8145.349.943.2
N-199854.5208.760.248.5
D-19985321454.341.6
J-199953238.963.536.6
F-199944.820755.741.8
CzechHungPolRus
0000
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Fig. 10. Dollar stock prices indices, Dec. 1993 = 100%
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor
12/199437.2100100
1/199538.1704347826118115
2/199538.3716535433131127
3/199538.0028776978142139
4/199539.5089655172154145
5/199543.7492957746167142
6/199551.3302325581178129
7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5
8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5
9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5
10/199562215129123.3140.5
11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5
12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5
1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6
2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6
3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6
4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6
5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6
6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6
7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5
8/199666.984717608271150.5
9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5
10/199666.213592233275154.5
11/199666.5559105431280156.5
12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8
1/199769.285298160
2/199769.5628482972302161.5
3/199770.063803681307163
4/199770.3170731707310164
5/199770.598540146312164.4
6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6
7/199771.486746988319166
8/199771.5128358209322167.5
9/199771.6485207101325.5169
10/199771.7818181818329170.5
11/199771.8046511628332172
12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96
PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio
Dec. 199410010037.2
Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5
Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8
Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 200015120537518077.5
1995=100%
1996.197
1996.296.5
1996.396.8
1996.496.8
1996.596.7
1996.695.2
1996.795.5
1996.894.8
1996.995.6
1996.1096.2
1996.1195.2
1996.1295.6
1997.197.1998586184
1997.298.0834936967
1997.397.2980402938
1997.498.2798570475
1997.596.9053135923
1997.697.7889486706
1997.798.5744020736
1997.897.7889486706
1997.997.887130346
1997.1098.672583749
1997.1199.6544005027
1997.12100.1453088796
1998.198.672583749
1998.299.4580371519
1998.398.3780387229
1998.499.0653104505
1998.594.8434984095
1998.695.3344067863
1998.789.2471429132
1998.886.4980560028
1998.983.650787417
1998.1087.6762361073
1998.1190.5235046931
1998.1293.5671366296
1999.193.7634999804
1999.295.7271334878
1999.399.7525821781
1999.497.061704211699.1
1999.599.6082272282101.7
1999.6101.5670910872103.7
1999.7103.0362389814105.2
1999.8104.4074436827106.6
1999.9104.9951028404107.2
1999.10100.0979431929102.2
1999.11103.5259549461105.7
1999.12103.4280117532105.6
2000.1105.582761998107.8
2000.2107.541625857109.8
2000.3106.4642507346108.7
2000.4102.3506366308104.5
2000.5109.3046033301111.6
2000.6110.2840352595112.6
2000.7111.361410382113.7
2000.8115.05695
2000.9112.5547
2000.10
2000.11
PolandChinaUSSR/Russia
19851989199519781985199419891996
"Ordinary government"15.113.215.48.99.78.222.316.4
Investment5.63.4314.97.52.121.87.7
Subsidies15.310.12.93.25.91.5
Defence31.81.84.72.21.28.12.8
Debt service50.50.51.12
Total3928.528.132.225.814.152.228.9
11111111
Consumer prices
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
Forecast (assuming
1% monthly inflation)
Ratio of Russian to US prices
Fig. . Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%, right scale) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars, left scale)
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
Proclaimed targets
Ratio of Russian to US prices,%
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
CPI
Fig. 6. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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Devaluation
Fig. 12. Index of industrial output, seasonally adjusted, 1995 = 100%
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POLAND
CHINA
USSR/ RUSSIA
"Ordinary government"
Investment
Subsidies
Defence
Debt service
Fig. 13. Government expenditure, % of GDP
In Argentina, like in Russia, and unlike in SEA, output fell before devaluation (2002), not after
Chart4
2.90999344.4941514659
-2.55690551.6457387996
-7.4961931.117570858
-2.39895959.0820221371
12.6697168.9207453712
11.9407773.4995205633
5.90691970.6071840935
5.83620171.0572103298
-2.8452171.4876419105
5.5266969.9723056532
8.11104768.4475637819
3.85017966.2860630315
-3.38545764.031905953
-0.788998963.3086443222
-4.4088461.116098049
-10.8944924.3883879152
8.830
930
7.52005
2002
GDP growth (annual %)
RER
Argentina - GDP growth rates (%, left scale) and RER vs the US$ (ratio of national to US prices, right scale)
1
COUNTRY_NAMEIND1_DESC1960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
ArgentinaGDP growth (annual %),,5.427844-0.852026-5.30819710.130310.56944-0.65972623.1919974.8225019.6795263.0456435.6581311.6284172.8117545.533804-2.84E-02-2.0182516.934148-4.50612510.222764.151762-5.689528-4.9571793.8751242.211773-7.5866777.875782.909993-2.556905-7.49619-2.39895912.6697111.940775.9069195.836201-2.845215.526698.1110473.850179-3.385457-0.7889989-4.40884-10.894498.897.5
ArgentinaOfficial exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average),,,,8.72E-121.39E-111.40E-111.70E-112.09E-113.33E-113.50E-113.50E-113.79E-114.52E-115.00E-115.00E-115.00E-113.66E-101.40E-094.08E-097.96E-091.32E-081.84E-084.40E-082.59E-071.05E-066.76E-066.02E-059.43E-052.14E-048.75E-044.23E-020.48758910.95355440.99064170.99894580.99900840.999750.99966250.99950.99950.99950.99950.99953.063257
ArgentinaPurchasing power parity conversion factor (LCU per international $),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.00E-119.00E-092.00E-095.00E-092.00E-082.00E-094.00E-080.00000010.00000050.000042.51E-054.32E-059.54E-054.52E-040.01317330.28807750.65719680.72811690.70532750.70986750.71469770.69948690.68413340.66252920.63999890.63276990.61085540.747079
RER0000000000000002.7341079973642.93383567949.063705050662.8338045869151.864093785210.886379941290.853505082838.576481539447.4835611911591.286331588641.71994769145.844333758944.494151465951.645738799631.11757085859.082022137168.920745371273.499520563370.607184093571.057210329871.487641910569.972305653268.447563781966.286063031564.03190595363.308644322261.11609804924.38838791523030
ArgentinaInflation, consumer prices (annual %),,13.3943428.3198823.8993722.1965828.6253831.9142729.2009816.210167.57485913.5868834.732558.4458861.2490823.47489182.9268443.9655176.0018175.5147159.5071100.7644104.476164.7768343.8107626.7186672.180790.0966131.327342.95513079.812313.965171.671724.8999510.611494.1773473.3761170.15569590.52725830.9203365-1.166896-0.9359394-1.06663525.8685
ArgentinaInflation, GDP deflator (annual %),,20.310728.8718525.5911528.7746221.2329325.6034629.0182610.275317.795836.46787531.2710664.2447965.5352930.63044197.6974438.3228159.4272161.3722147.37790.84081106.3641207.6177382.3494606.736625.802174.46149127.0864388.49133057.6292076.793132.953211.92076-1.4666572.849323.165194-5.24E-02-0.4639577-1.705203-1.8365861.037275-1.09577930.5552810.79.28.2
1
2002
GDP growth (annual %)
RER
Argentina - GDP growth rates (%, left scale) and RER vs the US$ (ratio of national to US prices, right scale)
2
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
Argentina - inflation rates, %
3
Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)
Inflation, GDP deflator (annual %)
Argentina - inflation rates, %
Russia's 1998 financial collapseIn a matter of days the exchange lost over 60% of its value more than in all most Latin American and Southeast Asian countries (except for Indonesia) Prices increased by nearly 50% in only 2 months after the crisisas compared to less than 6% annual inflation July 1998 to July 1997 before the crisisReal output fell by about 6% in 1998 after registering a small increase of 0.6% in 1997 for the first time since 1989, it fell in January - September 1998, i.e. mostly before the August 1998 crisis
Chart1
100100100100100100100100100100100100
341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.5145425701104.6891996892101
237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.1443680592110.8702408702102
221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.726070862119.662004662103
219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.4616604971140.7498057498104
238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.2548915918126.0916860917105
255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.2020095188125.7381507382105
263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.1491274458134.3667443667105
256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.4135378107137.9020979021106
251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.9423585405146.62004662107
247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.3654151243153.3954933955108
254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.2115282919157.0163170163109
258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.3220518244160.7964257964110
258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.600740349168.3760683761111
260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.8265468006182.5990675991111
259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.1967213115209.7902097902112
253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.6197778953May-1998113
255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.201480698Jun-1998114
254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.0042305658Jul-1998114
Aug-1998113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.5454514399Aug-1998123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.1771549445Aug-1998115
Sep-1998Sep-1998111.9186046512132.4503311258122.6386089571Sep-1998166.5773968934Sep-1998Sep-1998146.483342147Sep-1998115
Oct-1998Oct-1998106.1046511628128.8380493679120.2473268883Oct-1998283.8778789502Oct-1998Oct-1998203.0671602327971.250971251116
Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998Nov-1998282.0924834851Nov-1998Nov-1998175.56848228451165.5011655012180
* CBR and street market rate
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Belarus*
Kyrgyzstan
Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)
Sheet1
BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBelarusBulgariaCroatiaCzechHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*Belarus**
1/1/94111%8/1/96104%109%101%101%102%8/1/968/1/9619971997Republic19971997199719971997199719978/1/96
2/1/94111%9/1/96104%108%101%101%102%9/1/969/1/96Actual exchange rate, units of national currencies per $19/1/96
3/1/94105%10/1/96104%107%100%100%101%10/1/9610/1/9610/1/96
4/1/94103%11/1/96104%107%100%100%101%11/1/9611/1/9611/1/96
5/1/94104%12/1/96103%106%100%100%101%BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBelarus*Kyrgyzstan12/1/9612/1/96
6/1/94102%1/1/97102%105%101%100%100%Jan-19971001001001001001001001001001001001001/1/97698.65.6827.52166.12.92734963560132.24145.71.891257401/1/9715500
7/1/94101%2/1/97102%103%101%100%99%Feb-1997341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.5145425701104.68919968921012/1/9723875.9628.17173.323.02796896565432.76152.21.844269472/1/97
8/1/94102%3/1/97101%99%102%100%99%Mar-1997237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.1443680592110.87024087021023/1/9716606.0629.2176.833.07937236570433.23154.71.837285383/1/97
9/1/94101%4/1/97101%100%101%100%99%Apr-1997221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.726070862119.6620046621034/1/9715466.1129.86179.773.12127049574733.26155.91.848308014/1/97
10/1/94101%5/1/97100%100%100%100%100%May-1997219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.4616604971140.74980574981045/1/9715336.0931.02181.43.17137091577033.26155.21.843362295/1/97
11/1/94100%6/1/97100%100%100%100%100%Jun-1997238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.2548915918126.09168609171056/1/9716686.1632.38185.043.23857172578033.46156.71.858324566/1/97
12/1/9488%7/1/9797%100%98%95%85%Jul-1997255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.2020095188125.73815073821057/1/9717886.3733.58191.913.39657164578734.14162.61.857323657/1/97
1/1/9562%8/1/9792%99%91%90%82%Aug-1997263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.1491274458134.36674436671058/1/9718446.5534.24197.893.48177445581134.83169.51.856345868/1/97
2/1/9561%9/1/9782%98%84%82%72%Sep-1997256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.4135378107137.90209790211069/1/9717926.3433.63195.963.45667529587534.43166.81.861354969/1/97
10/1/9784%98%86%83%77%Oct-1997251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.9423585405146.6200466210710/1/9717596.2232.92195.593.42237702590233.72165.61.8713774010/1/97
11/1/97Nov-1997247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.3654151243153.395493395510811/1/9717316.133.14196.193.50337808591433.53163.61.8793948411/1/97
12/1/97Dec-1997254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.2115282919157.016317016310912/1/9717756.2534.73201.473.52567960599534.53167.61.8954041612/1/97
1/1/98Jan-1998258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.3220518244160.79642579641101/1/981805.56.3735.32206.013.531682936.02435.14171.31.916413891/1/98
2/1/98Feb-1998258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.600740349168.37606837611112/1/981804.16.3834.3208.413.538682316.094535.32171.31.978433402/1/98
3/1/98Mar-1998260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.8265468006182.59906759911113/1/9818196.4434.1210.623.459382176.07435.041712.039470013/1/98
4/1/98Apr-1998259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.1967213115209.79020979021124/1/981811.56.4933.88210.963.41983866.12835.04169.72.046540004/1/98
5/1/98May-1998253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.61977789531135/1/981770.96.4132.65211.323.426184616.14734.28166.12.0545/1/98
6/1/98Jun-1998255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.2014806981146/1/981784.56.5233.47215.943.464385716.19834.86168.52.0656/1/98
7/1/98Jul-1998254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.00423056581147/1/981779.36.5231.63217.313.455387086.23534.9169.42.1187/1/98
8/1/98Aug-1998113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.54545143990123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.17715494451158/1/986.4432.28220.843.5586.93235.361682.1788/1/98
9/1/98Sep-199800111.9186046512132.4503311258122.63860895710166.577396893400146.4833421471159/1/9830.82203.599.332.779/1/98
10/1/98Oct-199800106.1046511628128.8380493679120.24732688830283.877878950200203.0671602327971.25097125111610/1/9829.22143.5215.93.8425000010/1/98
Nov-1998000000282.092483485100175.56848228451165.501165501218011/1/9815.83.3230000011/1/98
........
........
Ukraine - from January 1996 through August 1996, Ukranian exchange rates were divided
by a factor of 100,000.
Currency reform was implemented September 1996.
* Street market rate , January 1997 = 100%
.
.
.
.
.
IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilipinesThailandMexico
Jan-97100100100100100100Jan-94
Feb-9796.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244Feb-94
Mar-9797.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001Mar-94
Apr-9797.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836Apr-94
May-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251May-94
Jun-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354Jun-94
Jul-97101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001Jul-94.
Aug-97106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354Aug-94.
Sep-97119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001Sep-94.
Oct-97116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001Oct-94104%109%101%101%102%8/1/96
Nov-97112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901Nov-94104%108%101%101%102%9/1/96
Dec-97158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751Dec-94104%107%100%100%101%10/1/96
Jan-98311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195Jan-95104%107%100%100%101%11/1/96
Feb-98288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.68867227885.68Feb-95103%106%100%100%101%
Mar-98312.7160131.7147143.4173.43021637326.67Mar-95102%105%101%100%100%1/1/97
Apr-98256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.80964964796.3Apr-95102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97
May-98319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.96912887325.96May-95101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97
Jun-98436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.72952711276.22Jun-95101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97
Jul-98450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.64940457756.14Jul-95100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97
Aug-98424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.9494811626.19Aug-95100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97
Sep-98361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.80964964796.3Sep-9597%100%98%95%85%7/1/97
Oct-98309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.9502470076.69Oct-9592%99%91%90%82%8/1/97
Nov-987.66Nov-9582%98%84%82%72%9/1/97
Dec-987.66Dec-9584%98%86%83%77%10/1/97
Jan-9611/1/97
Feb-9612/1/97
1/1/98
2/1/98
3/1/98
4/1/98
5/1/98
6/1/98
7/1/98
8/1/98
9/1/98
10/1/98
Mexico
Jan-94100
Feb-9481.1622433244
Mar-9485.8000858001
Apr-9487.4661068836
May-9486.6250866251
Jun-9488.3236177354
Jul-9489.1981090001
Aug-9488.3236177354
Sep-9489.1981090001
Oct-9489.1981090001
Nov-9490.0900900901
Dec-94102.3751023751
Jan-95145.3065969195
Feb-95147.6886722788
Mar-95
Apr-95
May-95
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95
Oct-95
PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio
Dec. 199410010037.2
Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5
Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8
Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 200015120537518077.5
Sheet1
1.041.091.011.011.021.11
1.041.081.011.011.021.11
1.041.07111.011.05
1.041.07111.011.03
1.031.06111.011.04
1.021.051.01111.02
1.021.031.0110.991.01
1.010.991.0210.991.02
1.0111.0110.991.01
111111.01
111111
0.9710.980.950.850.88
0.920.990.910.90.820.62
0.820.980.840.820.720.61
0.840.980.860.830.77
( )
. 3. (, , 1994. =100%; - , , 1997.= 100%)
Sheet2
354313543135431354313543135431354313543135431354313543135431
354623546235462354623546235462354623546235462354623546235462
354903549035490354903549035490354903549035490354903549035490
355213552135521355213552135521355213552135521355213552135521
355513555135551355513555135551355513555135551355513555135551
355823558235582355823558235582355823558235582355823558235582
356123561235612356123561235612356123561235612356123561235612
356433564335643356433564335643356433564335643356433564335643
356743567435674356743567435674356743567435674356743567435674
357043570435704357043570435704357043570435704357043570435704
357353573535735357353573535735357353573535735357353573535735
357653576535765357653576535765357653576535765357653576535765
357963579635796357963579635796357963579635796357963579635796
358273582735827358273582735827358273582735827358273582735827
358553585535855358553585535855358553585535855358553585535855
358863588635886358863588635886358863588635886358863588635886
359163591635916359163591635916359163591635916359163591635916
359473594735947359473594735947359473594735947359473594735947
359773597735977359773597735977359773597735977359773597735977
360083600836008360083600836008360083600836008360083600836008
360393603936039360393603936039360393603936039360393603936039
360693606936069360693606936069360693606936069360693606936069
361003610036100361003610036100361003610036100361003610036100
* CBR and street market rate
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Belarus*
Kyrgyzstan
Figure 1. Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)
Sheet3
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philipines
Thailand
Mexico
Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)
10010037.2Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994
23313265.6636363636123.3140.5Dec. 1995Dec. 1995Dec. 1995
291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8Dec. 1996Dec. 1996Dec. 1996
317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 1998Dec. 1998Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.1999Dec.1999Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 2000Dec. 2000Dec. 200015120537518077.5
Fig. 4. Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
Proclaimed targets
Ratio of Russian to US prices,%
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
Chart3
100100100100100100
96.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244
97.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001
97.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836
98.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251
98.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354
101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001
106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354
119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001
116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001
112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901
158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751
311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195
288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.6886722788
312.7160131.7147143.4173.4302163732
256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.8096496479
319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.9691288732
436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.7295271127
450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.6494045775
424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.949481162
361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.8096496479
309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.950247007
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philipines
Thailand
Mexico
Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)
Sheet1
BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraineBulgariaCroatiaCzechHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*Belarus
1/1/94111%8/1/96104%109%101%101%102%8/1/968/1/9619971997Republic1997199719971997199719971997
2/1/94111%9/1/96104%108%101%101%102%9/1/969/1/96Actual exchange rate, units of national currencies per $1
3/1/94105%10/1/96104%107%100%100%101%10/1/9610/1/96
4/1/94103%11/1/96104%107%100%100%101%11/1/9611/1/96
5/1/94104%12/1/96103%106%100%100%101%BulgariaCroatiaCzech RepublicHungaryPolandRomaniaRussiaSlovakiaSloveniaUkraine*12/1/96
6/1/94102%1/1/97102%105%101%100%100%1/1/971001001001001001001001001001001/1/97698.65.6827.52166.12.92734963560132.24145.71.891
7/1/94101%2/1/97102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97341.6833667335104.9295774648102.3619186047104.3467790488103.4366139446138.9482168044100.9462595965101.6129032258104.461221688497.51454257012/1/9723875.9628.17173.323.02796896565432.76152.21.844
8/1/94102%3/1/97101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97237.6180933295106.6901408451106.1046511628106.4599638772105.1924982065145.7989119484101.838957329103.070719603106.177076183997.14436805923/1/9716606.0629.2176.833.07937236570433.23154.71.837
9/1/94101%4/1/97101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97221.2997423418107.5704225352108.5029069767108.2299819386106.6238513306142.0310296192102.606677379103.1637717122107.000686341897.7260708624/1/9715466.1129.86179.773.12127049574733.26155.91.848
10/1/94101%5/1/97100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97219.4388777555107.2183098592112.7180232558109.2113184828108.3353260684142.8772919605103.017318336103.1637717122106.52024708397.46166049715/1/9715336.0931.02181.43.17137091577033.26155.21.843
11/1/94100%6/1/97100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97238.7632407672108.4507042254117.6598837209111.402769416110.6309568544144.5093693331103.1958578825103.7841191067107.549759780498.25489159186/1/9716686.1632.38185.043.23857172578033.46156.71.858
12/1/9488%7/1/9797%100%98%95%85%7/1/97255.9404523332112.1478873239122.0203488372115.5388320289116.0284220954144.3481765061103.3208355651105.8933002481111.599176389898.20200951887/1/9717886.3733.58191.913.39657164578734.14162.61.857
1/1/9562%8/1/9792%99%91%90%82%8/1/97263.9564843974115.3169014085124.4186046512119.1390728477118.9389539849150.0100745517103.7493304767108.0334987593116.334934797598.14912744588/1/9718446.5534.24197.893.48177445581134.83169.51.856
2/1/9561%9/1/9782%98%84%82%72%9/1/97256.5130260521111.6197183099122.2020348837117.9771222155118.0815085574151.7025992343104.8919835744106.7928039702114.481811942398.41353781079/1/9717926.3433.63195.963.45667529587534.43166.81.861
10/1/9784%98%86%83%77%10/1/97251.7892928715109.5070422535119.6220930233117.7543648405116.9097803437155.1883941165105.3740403499104.5905707196113.658201784598.942358540510/1/9717596.2232.92195.593.42237702590233.72165.61.871
11/1/9711/1/97247.7812768394107.3943661972120.4215116279118.1155930163119.676835309157.3241990731105.5882878057104.0012406948112.285518188199.365415124311/1/9717316.133.14196.193.50337808591433.53163.61.879
12/1/9712/1/97254.0795877469110.0352112676126.199127907121.2944009633120.4386294538160.3868627846107.0344581325107.1029776675115.0308853809100.211528291912/1/9717756.2534.73201.473.52567960599534.53167.61.895
1/1/981/1/98258.4454623533112.1478873239128.3430232558124.0276941601120.6435964882167.0965142051107.5522228174108.9950372208117.5703500343101.32205182441/1/981805.56.3735.32206.013.531682936.02435.14171.31.916
2/1/982/1/98258.2450615517112.323943662124.636627907125.4726068633120.8827246951165.8472697965108.8109266202109.5533498759117.5703500343104.6007403492/1/981804.16.3834.3208.413.538682316.094535.32171.31.978
3/1/983/1/98260.3778986545113.3802816901123.9098837209126.8031306442118.1737437229165.5651823494108.4449205499108.6848635236117.3644474949107.82654680063/1/9818196.4434.1210.623.459382176.07435.041712.039
4/1/984/1/98259.3043229316114.2605633803123.1104651163127.0078266105116.7970484747168.9703808181109.4090341011108.6848635236116.4722031572108.19672131154/1/981811.56.4933.88210.963.41983866.12835.04169.72.046
5/1/985/1/98253.4926996851112.8521126761118.6409883721127.224563516117.0395927988170.4815635704109.7482592394106.3275434243114.0013726836108.61977789535/1/981770.96.4132.65211.323.426184616.14734.28166.12.054
6/1/986/1/98255.4394503292114.7887323944121.6206395349130.0060204696118.3445495849172.6979649406110.6588109266108.1265508685115.6485929993109.2014806986/1/981784.56.5233.47215.943.464385716.19834.86168.52.065
7/1/987/1/98254.6951044947114.7887323944114.9345930233130.8308248043118.0370990332175.4583921016111.3194072487108.2506203474116.2663006177112.00423056587/1/981779.36.5231.63217.313.455387086.23534.9169.42.118
8/1/988/1/98113.3802816901117.2965116279132.9560505719121.54545143990123.7636136404109.6774193548115.3054221002115.17715494458/1/986.4432.28220.843.5586.93235.361682.178
9/1/989/1/9800111.9186046512132.4503311258122.63860895710227.637921799700126.91697514549/1/9830.82203.5912.752.4
10/1/9810/1/9800106.1046511628128.8380493679120.24732688830286.555972147800185.087255420410/1/9829.22143.5216.053.5
0000000000
........
........
* from January 1996 through August 1996, Ukranian exchange rates were divided
by a factor of 100,000.
Currency reform was implemented September 1996.
.
.
.
.
.
IndonesiaKoreaMalaysiaPhilipinesThailandMexico
Jan-97100100100100100100Jan-94
Feb-9796.116878123894.259590913498.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010181.1622433244Feb-94
Mar-9797.068530382498.068059233197.0685303824101.0101010101101.010101010185.8000858001Mar-94
Apr-9797.068530382497.087378640898.0296049407101.0101010101101.010101010187.4661068836Apr-94
May-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010086.6250866251May-94
Jun-9798.039215686397.087378640899.009900990110010088.3236177354Jun-94
Jul-97101.071356377697.0873786408101.0305112144117.6470588235117.647058823589.1981090001Jul-94.
Aug-97106.564364876498.0680592331108.8020890001121.9512195122121.951219512288.3236177354Aug-94.
Sep-97119.560019129699.0687537151117.8689297501138.8888888889138.888888888989.1981090001Sep-94.
Oct-97116.713352007599.0687537151115.127791849129.8701298701129.870129870189.1981090001Oct-94104%109%101%101%102%8/1/96
Nov-97112.7110.2119130.1136.590.0900900901Nov-94104%108%101%101%102%9/1/96
Dec-97158.4150.9133.1140.1157.3102.3751023751Dec-94104%107%100%100%101%10/1/96
Jan-98311.8182.9154.9160.8186.8145.3065969195Jan-95104%107%100%100%101%11/1/96
Feb-98288.9174.8134.5152.3160.1147.68867227885.68Feb-95103%106%100%100%101%
Mar-98312.7160131.7147143.4173.43021637326.67Mar-95102%105%101%100%100%1/1/97
Apr-98256.6149.2131144.9137.2163.80964964796.3Apr-95102%103%101%100%99%2/1/97
May-98319.4150.5134.1148.1136154.96912887325.96May-95101%99%102%100%99%3/1/97
Jun-98436.8149.9140152.2147.1161.72952711276.22Jun-95101%100%101%100%99%4/1/97
Jul-98450.6139.8145.7157.4143159.64940457756.14Jul-95100%100%100%100%100%5/1/97
Aug-98424.4143.3147.5163.2145.5160.9494811626.19Aug-95100%100%100%100%100%6/1/97
Sep-98361.5147.9133.4165.1141.7163.80964964796.3Sep-9597%100%98%95%85%7/1/97
Oct-98309.8148.4133.4164.7134.7173.9502470076.69Oct-9592%99%91%90%82%8/1/97
Nov-987.66Nov-9582%98%84%82%72%9/1/97
Dec-987.66Dec-9584%98%86%83%77%10/1/97
Jan-9611/1/97
Feb-9612/1/97
1/1/98
2/1/98
3/1/98
4/1/98
5/1/98
6/1/98
7/1/98
8/1/98
9/1/98
10/1/98
Mexico
Jan-94100
Feb-9481.1622433244
Mar-9485.8000858001
Apr-9487.4661068836
May-9486.6250866251
Jun-9488.3236177354
Jul-9489.1981090001
Aug-9488.3236177354
Sep-9489.1981090001
Oct-9489.1981090001
Nov-9490.0900900901
Dec-94102.3751023751
Jan-95145.3065969195
Feb-95147.6886722788
Mar-95
Apr-95
May-95
Jun-95
Jul-95
Aug-95
Sep-95
Oct-95
Sheet1
1.041.091.011.011.021.11
1.041.081.011.011.021.11
1.041.07111.011.05
1.041.07111.011.03
1.031.06111.011.04
1.021.051.01111.02
1.021.031.0110.991.01
1.010.991.0210.991.02
1.0111.0110.991.01
111111.01
111111
0.9710.980.950.850.88
0.920.990.910.90.820.62
0.820.980.840.820.720.61
0.840.980.860.830.77
( )
. 3. (, , 1994. =100%; - , , 1997.= 100%)
Sheet2
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine*
Figure 1. Exchange rates in transition economies (national currencies per $1, January 1997=100%)
Sheet3
354313543135431354313543135431
354623546235462354623546235462
354903549035490354903549035490
355213552135521355213552135521
355513555135551355513555135551
355823558235582355823558235582
356123561235612356123561235612
356433564335643356433564335643
356743567435674356743567435674
357043570435704357043570435704
357353573535735357353573535735
357653576535765357653576535765
357963579635796357963579635796
358273582735827358273582735827
358553585535855358553585535855
358863588635886358863588635886
359163591635916359163591635916
359473594735947359473594735947
359773597735977359773597735977
360083600836008360083600836008
360393603936039360393603936039
360693606936069360693606936069
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Philipines
Thailand
Mexico
Figure 2. Exchange rates in South East Asia (national curren-cies per $1, Jan. 1997 =100%) and in Mexico (Jan.1994 =100%)
Macroeconomic stabilisation of 1995-98 High inflation of several hundred and more percent a year in 1992-94during the period immediately following the deregulation of prices on January 2, 1992 In mid 1995 the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) introduced a system of the crawling peg an exchange rate corridor with initially pretty narrow boundaries The program of exchange rate based stabilization: to peg the exchange rate to the dollar and to use it as a nominal anchor for stabilization (prudent monetary policy)Pre-conditions: to contain within reasonable limits the government budget deficit and to find non-inflationary ways of its financing
Macroeconomic stabilisation of 1995-98The government stood up to its promises for three long years:No increase in the budget deficitEven though this required drastic expenditure cuts, since the budget revenues, despite all efforts to improve tax collection, continued to fallFinance the deficit mostly through borrowings Selling short-term ruble denominated treasury bills (GKO)Borrowing abroad in hard currency from international financial institutions, Western governments and banks and at the Eurobond market
Diagramm1
10010037.2Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994Dec. 1994
23313265.6636363636123.3140.5Dec. 1995Dec. 1995Dec. 1995
291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8Dec. 1996Dec. 1996Dec. 1996
317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 1998Dec. 1998Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.1999Dec.1999Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 2000Dec. 2000Dec. 200015120537518077.5
&A
Page &P
Consumer prices, exchange rate of the dollar (Dec. 1994 = 100%) and the ratio of Russian to US prices (%, bars)
Proclaimed targets
Ratio of Russian to US prices,%
Exchange rate
Exchange rate
corridor
EX-RATE
Price ratioPr ratio-foreCons pricesExch. rateCons pr-foreExch rate-foreExch rate corridor
12/199437.2100100
1/199538.1704347826118115
2/199538.3716535433131127
3/199538.0028776978142139
4/199539.5089655172154145
5/199543.7492957746167142
6/199551.3302325581178129
7/199555.2095238095187126123.3140.5
8/199557.8666666667196126123.3140.5
9/199559.578125205128123.3140.5
10/199562215129123.3140.5
11/199563.6091603053224131123.3140.5
12/199565.6636363636233132123.3140.5
1/199667.8410526316242.55133130.4147.6
2/199669.219761194249.34134130.4147.6
3/199670.6331555556256.33135130.4147.6
4/199670.618261.97138130.4147.6
5/199670.7225142857266.16140130.4147.6
6/199670.0686713287269.35143130.4147.6
7/199669.0493150685271146143.3160.5
8/199666.984717608271150.5
9/199666.2281967213271.5152.5
10/199666.213592233275154.5
11/199666.5559105431280156.5
12/199668.4532692551291158.14157.6174.8
1/199769.285298160
2/199769.5628482972302161.5
3/199770.063803681307163
4/199770.3170731707310164
5/199770.598540146312164.4
6/199771.4167679222316164.6316164.6
7/199771.486746988319166
8/199771.5128358209322167.5
9/199771.6485207101325.5169
10/199771.7818181818329170.5
11/199771.8046511628332172
12/199771.8270893372335173.5164.76181.96
PricesEX-ratePrice ratioCorrCorrPricesExch ratePrice ratio
Dec. 199410010037.2
Dec. 199523313265.6636363636123.3140.5
Dec. 1996291158.1468.4532692551157.6174.8
Dec. 1997317173.567.9677233429164.76181.96317173.567.9677233429
Dec. 199815120533517670.8068181818
Dec.199915120535317873.7730337079
Dec. 200015120537518077.5
EX-RATE
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
00000000
000