Russia and NATOA New Chapter?

Presented by: Harry Bethke &

Max Harrington

November 16, 2010

Presented for:State Dept. Policy

Planning Staff

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How could this happen?!?A history of ad-hoc cooperation

1991: North-Atlantic Cooperation Council

1997: Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

2010: Medvedev signals that he is willing to cooperate on ABM shield 2

June 24, 2010:

A successful “reset” sealed with burgers and fries

Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective

Of the top 6 importers of Russian crude; 5 are NATO members

› Russia uses natural resources in line with its foreign policy goals

Russia will provide 1/3 of China’s natural gas imports beginning in 2015

› Russia signaling Europe that they are not the only game in town

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Why this should happen: the U.S. perspective, continued

Gas isn’t the only thing China is buying from Russia› In 2005 over 50% of

arms exports from Russia went to China

› From 2005-2009 China was Russia’s third largest importer of arms

The Point: China is getting stronger

Democracy!› Pevehouse (2002)

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India: 3.22 Billion Algeria: 2.4

BillionChina: 1.65 Billion Malasi

a875 Million

Chief importers of Russian arms transfers 2005 – 2009Sales in U.S. dollars

Why this should happen: the Russian perspective

Russia needs a friend› Multiple security

challenges of its own: Demographic Economic Narcotic

Military modernization Reduced need to

posture NATO will cease to be

the anti-Russia club5

China: 680,492,931

Russia’s Military

Expenditures:

$82 Billion(2009, PPP)

Russia’s Military

Expenditures:

$82 Billion(2009, PPP)

Russia: 70,744,194

Manpower available for Military Service

To Recap:

Expand NATO to include Russia WHY?

› It’s good for Russia Provides a partner for Russia’s security Repurposes NATO; no longer the anti-Russia club Provides avenue for military transformation Permits more direct dialogue with the west

› It’s good for the U.S. New partner in NATO operations Useful partner in balancing PRC influence Can influence the flow of Russian arms and energy Fosters democratic growth in Russia

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Thank You.

Questions?

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