Russia

Past and Future

The Uneasy Alliance

2008-2013

2008: Choosing a Successor

• The speculation that Putin would stay on.

• The candidates: Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov (KGB, Minister of Defence, fluent English) made Vice-Presidents

• The result: Medvedev more popular, endorsed by Putin

The “Tandem”

“Name of Russia” Program 2008TV Channel Rossiya

Ranking of the twelve greatest “Russians”

1. Alexander Nevsky

2. Pyotr Stolypin

3. Josef Stalin

4. Alexander Pushkin

5. Peter I

6. Vladimir Lenin

7. Fyodor Dostoevsky

8. Alexander Suvorov

9. Dmitry Mendeleev

10. Ivan the Terrible

11. Catherine II

12. Alexander II

Pyotr Stolypin (1862-1911)

• 1906 became prime minister under Nicholas II

• Nationalist, believer in strong state power

• 1909 carried out reforms of agriculture to create a productive peasant class

• 1911 assassinated in Kiev by terrorist

• Name associated with efficient, pragmatic reforms

The New Monarchy: President as Monarch

Dmitry Medvedev (1965-)

• St Petersburg law professor

• Served in administration of Anatoly Sobchak (liberal mayor of St Petersburg)

• New, “young” image to the Kremlin

• Has internet blog

Medvedev’s Presidency

• Took care of international issues, general direction of government

• Medvedev’s mistake: trusted the Americans on Libya.

• Putin as prime minister took care of the nuts and bolts of government, economy, budget

• Putin and his team brought Russia through 2008 crisis

Medvedev’s Program

• Law reform• Police reform (draft legislation placed on

internet for commentary)• Firing corrupt officials – notably Luzhkov, Mayor

of Moscow• Modernization: visited Silicon Valley, friends

with Schwarzenegger, developed idea of Russian Silicon Valley in Oskolkovo near Moscow

The Conflict of 2008

During Olympic Peace 8 August 2008

• Georgia invades South Ossetia, kills civilians, Russian peacekeepers

• Russian troops drive Georgians out of S. Ossetia, destroy Georgian army bases

• Abkhazia seizes Georgian-controlled valley, now has complete control of its territory

• Russia, citing the recognition of Kosovo by US and allies, recognizes the independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia

The Reset: Rebooting the Relationship

• After coming to power in 2009 Obama decides to “reboot” the relationship with Russia

• Arms agreements signed• US transports materiel to

Afghanistan through Russia

• Russia joins embargo on Iran

Patrimonial Russia

Richard Pipes has argued that Muscovy differed from every state in Europe in that it had no concept of private property: everything was regarded as the property of the Tsar. This separate path undertaken by Russia ensured that Russia would be an autocratic state with values fundamentally dissimilar from those of Western civilization. This "patrimonialism" of Imperial Russia started to break down when Russian leaders attempted to modernize in the 19th century, without seeking to change the basic "patrimonial" structure.

“Patrimonial Capitalism”

• Putin’s control of law courts, FSB, police, and army through an army of corrupt bureaucrats creates a personalized form of power that is resistant to change.

• Paradoxically, elements of liberal capitalism coexist with this structure, exerting unpredictable outside influence.

• Dependence on hydrocarbon revenues seems likely to persist.

• Such a system makes rampant corruption inevitable.

2011 The New Paradigm• The breakdown of the coalition of forces:

“siloviki” – esp. FSB – and liberal economists.• Aleksei Kudrin, Minister of Finance, leaves the

cabinet.• Putin’s renewed candidacy for presidency badly

received.• Medvedev agrees to become premier under

Putin.

The political system post 2011

• Four parties in Duma:- United Russia – “officially” 49.32% of the vote, 238

seats (estimated vote: around 30%)- This result was down from 64.30% of the vote and

70% of the seats in the 2007 elections.- CPRF received 19.19% of the vote and 92 seats, while

A Just Russia received 13.24% and 64 seats.- LDPR got 56 seats with 11.67% of the vote.

Demonstrations 10 December 2011 after falsified elections to the Duma

Putin’s Inauguration

• 7 May 2012. Empty streets: Police beat up demonstrators, or even people sitting in cafés…

• Vampire-like drive through Moscow to Kremlin.

The “extrasystemic” opposition

• Leading figures blogger Aleksei Navalny, TV personalities Ksenia Sobchak and Leonid Parfyonov, opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, writer Boris Akunin, Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov.

• Communicates through internet: Live Journal (Zh Zh), internet TV Dozhd (Rain).

Some of the issues

• Sergey Magnitsky death in prison: sparked the Magnitsky Act in US.

• Dima Yakovlev law in Duma: bans adoption of Russian children by American families.

• Exposure of members of Duma with property abroad.

Gudkov in Washington March 2013

• Dmitry Gudkov’s speech

• (begins at 39.00)

• Text of Gudkov’s speech

25 years later – what has changed?

• Russians today… • …can travel freely• …can start a business• …can read any books they want• …can go on the internet• …can study abroad• …can emigrate• …can buy a car or an apartment

What is next?

• Does Russia face a crisis if price of oil goes down?

• Will controls be placed on travel of Russian citizens?

• Will controls be placed on movement of capital?

• Will the FSB impose controls on the internet in Russia?