Russia Resurgent

Russia Resurgent Russia Resurgent

• Should we Should we again fear again fear the Russian the Russian bear?bear?

• bare?bare?• Russia’s Russia’s

return to return to “not free”“not free”


The Russian Style of DemocracyThe Russian Style of Democracy

1. The State of Russian Democracy - Bad News/Good News

2. A Russian Democracy – Russian Political Culture

3. Brief Overview of Russian/Soviet History

4. The Demise of the USSR – The Power of Ideas

5. Why Do We Care – Implications

6. Shameless Book Plug


The Bad NewsThe Bad News

1.1. The Appointment of The Appointment of Regional GovernorsRegional Governors

2.2. The The YukosYukos Prosecution Prosecution

3.3. Interference in Ukraine’s Interference in Ukraine’s ElectionElection

4.4. Increased Media ControlIncreased Media Control

5.5. Abuses in Chechnya & the Abuses in Chechnya & the MilitaryMilitary

6.6. Georgia incursionGeorgia incursion

7.7. Putin’s return in purported Putin’s return in purported fraudulent electionfraudulent election


The Good NewsThe Good News1.1. Public Opinion on PutinPublic Opinion on Putin2.2. The Recent Protests The Recent Protests 3.3. Response to the Kursk Response to the Kursk

TragedyTragedy4.4. Ukraine’s Orange Ukraine’s Orange

RevolutionRevolution5.5. Cooperation on GWOTCooperation on GWOT6.6. Putin’s Apparent Putin’s Apparent

Willingness to Step Willingness to Step Aside, (sort of) for Aside, (sort of) for Medvedev, but come Medvedev, but come back.back.


Last year: in four Russian cities thousands took to the streets to protest cuts in pensions.

Hundreds blocked key highways in Northern Ossestia to protest government handling of the Beslan tragedy.


Russian Government’s Response to the 2000 Sinking of the Submarine Kursk

Soviet Response to the Previous 24 Cold War Accidents


Elements of Russian Political Elements of Russian Political CultureCulture

1.1. Paranoia of InvasionParanoia of Invasion

2.2. Inferiority/Superiority ComplexInferiority/Superiority Complex

3.3. Relative Value of Human Relative Value of Human Life/Value of numbersLife/Value of numbers

4.4. Stoic Acceptance of Authority Stoic Acceptance of Authority & Hardship& Hardship

5.5. AlcoholAlcohol


The Impact of Russian History• 9th Century Kievan Rus• Genghis Khan & Mongol Rule• Czarist Expansion

1. Ivan the Terrible, 16th Century2. Peter the Great, 17th Century3. Catherine the Great, 18th

Century• Napolean’s Invasion


Revolution•The Russo-Japanese War 1904•The Failed Revolutions of 1905•Creation of the First Duma•WWI & the Abdication of Nicolas II•The Kerensky Government•The October Revolution


Stalinization•NEP•Consolidation/Elimination of Trotsky•Forced Collectivization•Five-Year Plans•Molotov-Ribbontrop 1939•The Great Patriotic War


Khrushchev’s Thaw

•De-Stalinization and the Secret Speech•“We will bury you”•Virgin Lands Program•Cuban Missile Crisis•Peaceful Coexistance•“The Thaw”•Brezhnev’s Stagnation


The Demise of the USSR – The Power of Ideas

1. Gorbachev and his Generation

2. Glasnost, Perestroika and New Thinking

3. The Reagan Revolution

4. The War in Afghanistan

5. Chernobyl

6. The August 1991 Coup


Yeltsin’s Kleptocracy•Yeltsin on the tank saves democracy•Potemkin Democracy•Privatization and the New Oligarchs•Forgiveness of debt


Yeltsin’s Kleptocracy•Attack on the White House 1993•The Ruble crisis of 1998•The First Chechan War 1996


Putin’s Arrival•The Second Chechan War 99•NATO expansion (Particularly Georgia & Ukraine)•Bombing of Serbia•9/11•Bush Administration•Overpowered the Oligarchs•Russian sense of betrayal


August 2008 Georgia: Who invaded whom?



Obama’s Arrival•Hillary resets the relationship – Peregruzka (reset)/Perazagruzka (overcharge)•Georgia/Ukraine in NATO•Sanctions on Iran’s nuclear ambitions•Veto of condemnation of Syria


Implications for the West and What the U.S. Should Do

•Russian Paranoia

•Russian Superiority/Inferiority

•Russian Respect for Authority

•Russian Value on Human Life

Russia Resurgent Russia Resurgent Recognize this tourist in Red Square? (1988)

Is the American guy better?Is the American guy better?


Questions?

Documents

Russia Resurgent