Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues

Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big LeaguesRyan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues

John D. CappelloJohn D. [email protected]@optimal-design.com

Cell 609-970-4779Cell 609-970-4779

1

mailto:[email protected]

Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big LeaguesRyan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big LeaguesBy John D. Cappello

Introduction

• SABR Member since 2007• Stats & Strat-o-matic fanatic in ’70s• MSEE Drexel University – Comp HW Engineer• “Stealing Greatness” coming March 2010

2


The Great Ones Arrive Early

3

• Bill James: “Any hitter who is destined to become a great ballplayer will reach the majors at an early age. I know of no clear-cut exception to this rule in the history of baseball.”

• 27 years ago in 1982 Abstract• One exception: Ryan Howard• Late arrival defies all that he’s accomplished so far• Delay more complicated than just Jim Thome


4a

• Power hitter• Comparison to greats• 500 HR club• Ruth: pitcher to hitter• McGwire/Schmidt

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

Age player broke into starting lineup

42 43

Barry Bonds18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

Hank AaronBabe RuthWillie MaysKen Griffey Jr.Sammy SosaFrank RobinsonMark McGwireHarmon KillebrewRafael PalmeiroReggie JacksonAlex RodriguezMike SchmidtJim ThomeMickey MantleJimmie FoxxManny RamirezWillie McCoveyFrank ThomasTed WilliamsErnie BanksEddie MathewsMel OttEddie Murray

Age player played last game

Age

Age

504511512512521521521527534536541548553563569572583586609611660714755762

Career Spans for the 500 Home Run Club

(pitcher)


4b

• Howard 2+ yrs later• Starter at 26 1/2

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41


42 43

Barry Bonds18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

Hank AaronBabe RuthWillie MaysKen Griffey Jr.Sammy SosaFrank RobinsonMark McGwireHarmon KillebrewRafael PalmeiroReggie JacksonAlex RodriguezMike SchmidtJim ThomeMickey MantleJimmie FoxxManny RamirezWillie McCoveyFrank ThomasTed WilliamsErnie BanksEddie MathewsMel OttEddie Murray


Age

Age

504511512512521521521527534536541548553563569572583586609611660714755762

Career Spans for the 500 Home Run Club

(pitcher)

Ryan Howard 177


18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41


42 43

18 2019 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43


Age

Age

Career Spans for the 400 Home Run ClubPresent and Future

Gary SheffieldLou GehrigFred McGriffStan MusialWillie StargellCarlos DelgadoDave WinfieldJose CansecoCarl YastrzemskiJeff BagwellDave KingmanAndre DawsonJuan GonzalezCal RipkenMike PiazzaBilly WilliamsDarrell EvansChipper JonesDuke Snider

Vladimir GuerreroAlbert PujolsAdam Dunn 278

319392

407408414426427431434438442449452462465469475475493493499

Mark Teixeira 203

PROJECTED:

44

44

4c

• 400 HR club• Active projections• McGriff


18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41


42 43

18 2019 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43


Age

Age

Career Spans for the 400 Home Run ClubPresent and Future

Gary SheffieldLou GehrigFred McGriffStan MusialWillie StargellCarlos DelgadoDave WinfieldJose CansecoCarl YastrzemskiJeff BagwellDave KingmanAndre DawsonJuan GonzalezCal RipkenMike PiazzaBilly WilliamsDarrell EvansChipper JonesDuke Snider

Vladimir GuerreroAlbert PujolsAdam Dunn 278

319392

407408414426427431434438442449452462465469475475493493499

Mark Teixeira 203

PROJECTED:

44

44

Ryan Howard 177

4d

• Howard still 2+ yrs later• RH “latest bloomer”


5

Mark McGwire2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0

Ryan HowardBabe RuthBarry BondsJ im ThomeAdam DunnHarmon KillebrewAlex RodriguezManny RamirezAlbert PujolsSammy SosaTed WilliamsMickey MantleDave KingmanJ uan GonzalezKen Griffey, J r.Mike SchmidtJ immy FoxxCarlos DelgadoJ ose Canseco

%

15.315.315.215.215.215.115.115.114.814.514.414.414.214.213.913.612.911.811.710.6

Top 20 Home Run Averages

%

2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0% %

(RED: Active)

1986-1994 1995-2001

AB/HR HR/AB

HR/AB

• Other half of story• HR Rate• McGwire: 2 halves• RH: mind-boggling• Disclaimer • RH: Expect a drop


YEAR AGE GAMES AB RUN

S HR RBI AVE SLG AWARDSRalph

Kiner’sHRs

2004 24 19 39 5 2 5 .282 .564Eastern League MVP(2003 FlaStLg MVP)

--

2005 25 88 312 52 22 63 .288 .567 ROY 23 (age 23)

2006 26 159 581 104 58 149 .313 .659 SS, MVP 51 (age 24)

2007 27 144 529 94 47 136 .268 .584 MVP-5 40 (age 25)

2008 28 162 610 105 48 146 .251 .543 MVP-2 54 (age 26)

TOTALS 572 2071 360 177 499 .279 .590 168

Ryan’s HUGE Career Numbers

6

• Start like Kiner’s• Fastest to 100 games• Benchmark – MVP voting• 56 HRs on 9/8/2006


Ryan Howard’s Home RunsYEAR HOME AWAY TOTAL

2004 1 1 2

2005 11 11 22

2006 29 29 58

2007 23 24 47

2008 26 22 48CAREE

R 90 (50.8%) 87 (49.2%) 177

CITIBANK MYTH – Raw HRs

7a

• Exaggerated influence• Citibank Park great place to hit• RH: No preference


Ralph Kiner’s Home Runs*YEAR HOME AWAY TOTAL

1946 8 15 23

1947 28 23 51

1948 31 9 40

1949 29 25 54

1950 27 20 47

1951 26 11 37

1952 22 13 35

’47-’52 163 (61.7%)

101 (38.3%) 264

Forbes Field and Ralph Kiner

7b

*SABR HR Log – David Vincent

• Demo of sig. ballpark effect• 1946 – Forbes Left Field 365’• 1947 – Greenberg, bullpen (18/25)• “Greenberg’s Gardens” => “Kiner’s

Korner”• Kiner: 62% HRs at Forbes ’47-’52• RH: ballpark not so obvious


Ryan Howard’s Home Run Rate(AB/HR)

YEAR HOME AWAY TOTAL

2004 13.0 26.0 19.5

2005 13.0 15.4 14.2

2006 9.7 10.3 10.0

2007 10.9 11.6 11.3

2008 11.5 14.1 12.7CAREE

R 11.0 12.5 11.7

CITIBANK MYTH – HR Rate

7c

• Get around “absolute-ness” raw #’s• Slight favor to Citibank Park• 14.1 still 40+ HRs in 600 AB• RH: Monster HR hitter anywhere


8a

Howard’s Scatter Plot - 2006 season - (hittrackeronline.com)

• Excellent distribution• Typical pwr hitter will pull - smaller

“wheelhouse” in strike zone• RH: no safe spot horizontally



8b



8c


8d

Pujols’s Scatter Plot - 2006 season - (hittrackeronline.com)

• > 50% pulled• Even for high-average hitter


9a

King of the K• Write down 180-200 K’s• MReynolds, JCust• Theory: HRs come at expense of K’s, lower AVE• But, wait a minute…he did hit .313 in ’06

Charlie Manual, 2004: “He doesn’t strike out because he strides He doesn’t strike out because he strides too quick and tries to hit the ball too hard…he strikes out too quick and tries to hit the ball too hard…he strikes out because he waits to see the ball. He lets the ball get too because he waits to see the ball. He lets the ball get too deep on him, and hedeep on him, and he kind of rushes. And that’s a good sign. kind of rushes. And that’s a good sign. That’s very good.”That’s very good.”


Ryan’s Hot and Cold Streaks

2005APR MAY J UN J UL AUG SEP/OCT

2006

2007

2008

9b

• Examined game-by-game #’s for trends• Difficult with Pujols, Musial, Gwynn• RH: #’s show definite ON-OFF switch• Judgment call


HOT.331 – 155 HR – 431 K

(66 HR, 182 K per 600 AB)

COLD.159 – 20 HR – 248 K

(20 HR, 240 K per 600 AB)

9c

(Career Split: 70/30)

Ryan’s Hot and Cold Streaks

• RH: Individual seasons have similar splits• Batting AVE correlated with HRs• Don’t talk about GThomas, RDeer, DKingman• RH: Different breed


Jeff Manto (Howard’s manager at single-A in Jeff Manto (Howard’s manager at single-A in Lakewood): Lakewood):

““Too raw – no fundamentals”Too raw – no fundamentals” ““Far from major league ready – no sure thing”Far from major league ready – no sure thing” ““Had to hit his way to the big leagues”Had to hit his way to the big leagues” ““Developmental joy.”Developmental joy.”Mike Arbuckle (Phils asst. GM during Howard’s development): Mike Arbuckle (Phils asst. GM during Howard’s development): ““Club philosophy: Player development takes time” (see Utley, Chase)Club philosophy: Player development takes time” (see Utley, Chase) ““Ryan had contact issues”Ryan had contact issues” ““Flier in the 5Flier in the 5thth round” round” ““Rather have Thome for new ballpark”Rather have Thome for new ballpark” ““Other teams also concerned” (trade rejections)Other teams also concerned” (trade rejections)

10

Historically great success, so…WHAT TOOK HIM SO LONG?• We know about Thome• Elite HR Hitters in history + Bill James• RH: What was so “un-special” early on?


How did Albert do it?

11

• Practically same age• 4 years difference ROYs• Pujols: Unwanted to Superstar in < 2 years

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 AGE

Ryan Howard - The Scenic Route

Albert Pujols - The Accelerated Path

4 Years DifferenceBetween ROYs


Concluding Remarks…Concluding Remarks…

Questions?Questions?

Two basic observations• With HR spread to all fields + .331 AVE during HR streaks = “NEVER TRY TO PULL!” • With late arrival + dominating performance, RH one-of-a-kind in history, will follow

WStargell, WMcCovey into HOF


Special thanks to:• www.baseball-reference.com• SABR HR Log (David Vincent)• www.hittrackeronline.com (Greg Rybarczyk)• www.highbeam.com• Jeff Manto• Mike Arbuckle

http://www.baseball-reference.com/

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/

http://www.highbeam.com/


AB H AVE HR AB/HR K AB/K HIGHLIGHTSHOT 223 73 0.327 20 11.2 67 3.3 ROY

COLD 89 17 0.191 2 44.5 33 2.7 22 HR - 88 RBI - .288

HOT 528 178 0.337 57 9.3 153 3.5 MVPCOLD 53 4 0.075 1 53.0 28 1.9 58 HR - 149 RBI - .313

HOT 355 114 0.321 41 8.7 127 2.8COLD 174 28 0.161 6 29.0 72 2.4 47 HR - 136 RBI - .268

HOT 310 104 0.335 37 8.4 84 3.7 MVP RunnerupCOLD 300 49 0.163 11 27.3 115 2.6 48 HR - 146 RBI - .251

HOT 1416 469 0.331 155 9.1 431 3.3COLD 616 98 0.159 20 30.8 248 2.5

CAREER

2005

2006

2007

2008


YEAR SWUNG %SWUNG %MISS HR/SWING AB/HR HR/CONTACT

2004 93 49.2% 34.4% 2.2% 19.5 7.7%

2005 656 47.5% 30.5% 3.4% 14.2 10.3%

2006 1251 43.3% 33.1% 4.6% 10.0 14.3%

2007 1181 42.5% 35.5% 4.0% 11.3 13.9%

2008 1316 46.5% 34.0% 3.6% 12.7 11.5%

4497 44.7% 33.6% 3.9% 11.7 12.6%

Ryan Howard: pitch-by-pitch breakdown

YEAR %SWUNG %MISS HR/SWING AB/HR HR/CONTACT

2001 42.4% 21.0% 3.1% 15.9 7.3%

2002 40.3% 15.7% 3.2% 17.4 6.5%

2003 42.1% 13.9% 4.0% 13.7 8.1%

2004 42.1% 12.7% 4.3% 12.9 8.4%

2005 39.4% 13.8% 3.8% 14.4 7.8%

2006 39.8% 13.8% 5.1% 10.9 10.0%

2007 36.7% 11.0% 3.1% 17.7 6.2%

2008 38.0% 9.8% 3.9% 14.2 7.7%

Albert Pujols: pitch-by-pitch breakdown


YEAR AGE HRS AVE SWUNG %SWUNG %MISS HR/SWING AB/HR HR/CONTACT

1993 28 46 0.336 971 38.7% 14.6% 4.7% 11.7 10.0%

1994 29 37 0.312 669 39.2% 14.6% 5.5% 10.6 11.1%

1995 30 33 0.294 857 37.7% 15.4% 3.9% 15.3 8.7%

1996 31 42 0.308 883 35.7% 14.2% 4.8% 12.3 10.2%

1997 32 40 0.291 899 35.3% 18.1% 4.4% 13.3 9.5%

1998 33 37 0.303 899 37.3% 15.6% 4.1% 14.9 8.8%

1999 34 34 0.262 686 40.6% 15.3% 5.0% 10.4 11.7%

2000 35 49 0.306 918 37.6% 16.1% 5.3% 9.8 12.0%

2001 36 73 0.328 883 32.7% 17.0% 8.3% 6.5 19.0%

2002 37 46 0.370 762 31.4% 14.7% 6.0% 8.8 12.8%

2003 38 45 0.341 746 33.9% 16.8% 6.0% 8.7 13.5%

2004 39 45 0.362 680 27.7% 12.5% 6.6% 8.3 13.4%

2005 40 5 0.286 78 36.1% 14.1% 6.4% 8.4 13.5%

2006 41 26 0.270 679 34.0% 13.8% 3.8% 14.1 8.2%

2007 42 28 0.276 628 32.6% 13.9% 4.5% 12.1 9.7%

Barry Bonds: pitch-by-pitch breakdown


YEAR %SWUNG %MISS HR/SWING AB/HR HR/CONTACT

2001 42.4% 21.0% 3.1% 15.9 7.3%

2002 40.3% 15.7% 3.2% 17.4 6.5%

2003 42.1% 13.9% 4.0% 13.7 8.1%

2004 42.1% 12.7% 4.3% 12.9 8.4%

2005 39.4% 13.8% 3.8% 14.4 7.8%

2006 39.8% 13.8% 5.1% 10.9 10.0%

2007 36.7% 11.0% 3.1% 17.7 6.2%

2008 38.0% 9.8% 3.9% 14.2 7.7%

Albert Pujols: pitch-by-pitch breakdown

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Ryan Howard’s Unique Journey to the Big Leagues