Ryan Spackman (STC/ESRL), Marty Ralph (Scripps), Chris Fairall (ESRL), Allen White (ESRL), Janet Intrieri (ESRL)

CalWater 2 Early Start G-IV Flights

“AR Experiment”

3 – 25 Feb 2014

Science Highlights

GFS Analysis5 - 10 Feb

2014

Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs

Targets: 2 major landfalling AR events

along West Coast Tropical Moisture Export

(TMEs) events from Hawaii Poleward developing AR

between Hawaii and Alaska Occluded front in Gulf of AK

and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Science Highlights

GFS Analysis5 - 10 Feb

2014

Tropical Moisture

Export Events18-19 Feb

Landfalling ARs

8 Research

Flights

7-15, 24 Feb

Developing ARs and Extratropi

cal Cyclone Flights

21-22 Feb

Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs

Targets: 2 major landfalling AR events

along West Coast Tropical Moisture Export

(TMEs) events from Hawaii Poleward developing AR

between Hawaii and Alaska Occluded front in Gulf of AK

and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Science Highlights

7-Day Observed Precipitation8 - 14 Feb 2014

Science Priority – Evolution and Structure of ARs

Targets: 2 major landfalling AR events

along West Coast Tropical Moisture Export

(TMEs) events from Hawaii Poleward developing AR

between Hawaii and Alaska Occluded front in Gulf of AK

and midlatitude offshore AR between Hawaii and CA

Forecast Improvements? – CrIS and ATMSItem 1: AR landfalling forecast errors are large (500 km at 5 days, 200 km at 1 day from Wick et al. 2013)

➤ Preliminary analysis suggests retrievals from CrIS and ATMS could improve landfalling forecasts

AR Developing on 21 Feb

GFS Integrated Vapor TransportInit 6Z 8 Feb, Valid 21Z 8 Feb

Flight Plan, 8 Feb 2014AR Mesoscale Frontal Wave

Item 2: Vertical structure of water vapor in ARs is crucial to getting integrated vapor transport correct

➤ Numerous discrepancies between model and dropsonde data were observed in vertical profiles of water vapor across ARs

Dropsondes

NOAA G-IV Payload Dropsondes – T, P, RH, wind speed and direction Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) – Reflectivity and wind field SFMR (Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer) – Surface winds and rain rate

G-IV in Anchorage, Feb 2014

12 research flights + 3 ferry flights (no science) for total of ~94 flight hr 190 sondes + 7 IR test sondes deployed with:

• 75% of project sondes released in first 7 research flights due to prime atmospheric river (AR) science opportunities from NorCA

• Focus on precipitation regions near associated with ARs near Hawaii/Alaska on last 5 research flights to take advantage of TDR capabilities

Flight Operations

Final approach into Travis after AR Box Module Flight11 Feb 2014

Final approach into Honolulu after Kona Low Flight19 Feb 2014

NOAA G-IV on the ramp at Anchorage before Flight into Gulf of AK22 Feb 2014

Flight Operations

7-Day Observed Precipitation8 - 14 Feb 2014

Research Flight 2 –Mesoscale Frontal Wave, 8 Feb 2014

Research Flight 12 – Midlatitude AR, 24 Feb 2014

Flight Operations

Final approach into Travis after AR Box Module Flight11 Feb 2014

Final approach into Honolulu after Kona Low Flight19 Feb 2014

NOAA G-IV on the ramp at Anchorage before Flight into Gulf of AK22 Feb 2014

Base of Operations: Travis AFB (Primary): 7 research flights Honolulu: 3 research flights (including science ferry to ANC) Anchorage: 2 research flights (including science ferry to TAFB)

Flight Planning: AR box modules IVT stacked flight modules Mesoscale frontal wave transects TDR modules AR transects

Flight Operations

Research Flight 4 – IVT 2-Layer Stacked Module

12 Feb 2014

2 stacked flights in coastal FIR were conducted with

flight levels above and below the icing layer to

evaluate TDR performance

Flight OperationsStaffing: PI – Chris Fairall Mission Scientists – Ralph (7 flights) and Spackman (5 flights) Onboard Scientists – White (3 flights) and Intrieri (1 flight) Guest Scientists – David Reynolds (NWS Monterey), Jay Jasperse

(SCWA), Gary Barnes (U of HI), U of HI graduate students Lead Forecaster – Cordeira

Research Flight Summary

RF01 – RF127 – 24 Feb 2014

Project Date – Flight

Base Mission Scientist

AR characteristics Flight Hours & Drops

Type of mission Notes

5/6 Feb – No fly TAFB Ralph Down Day for G-IV crew

7 Feb – RF01 TAFB Ralph Well-defined AR with IWV > 3 cm and IVT > 600 units

6.1 h, 23 drops 3 box moduleUsed 23 sondes; all good

3 boxes, each one about 1 hour to execute; Janet Intrieri onboard with Ralph

8 Feb – RF02 TAFB Ralph Well-defined AR with IWV > 3.5 cm and IVT > 700 units

8.1 h, 29 drops Mesoscale frontal waveUsed 29 sondes

Mesoscale frontal wave;Dave Reynolds and Jay Jasperse onboard with Ralph

9 Feb – No fly TAFB Ralph Moderate AR makes landfall on central CA coast

Cancelled Mission cancelled – Down day Near-shore track planned with military warning areas; Precip predicted to be onshore early; G-IV repair needed in Vegas

10 Feb TAFB Ralph None Maintenance G-IV in Vegas under repair; return to TAFB

11 Feb – RF03 TAFB Spackman Strong AR Offshore NorCal

6.1 h, 36 drops 3 AR boxes Box 2 is 50 nm larger north-south than IOP-1 due to uncertainty in AR axis position

12 Feb – RF04 TAFB Spackman AR Landfall NorCal 4.2 h, 15 drops IVT Stacked Flight (2 levels) Allen White onboard as Met support and familiarization

13 Feb – RF05 TAFB White Moderate AR off OR 5.9 h, 24 drops Far offshore IVT Cross Section

14 Feb – RF06 TAFB White Moderate AR off OR 4.1 h, 4 drops IVT Stacked Flight (3 levels) TDR survey at cruise and immediately above/below icing layer

15 Feb – RF07 TAFB Ralph Moderate AR near OR 7.0 h, 14 drops

17 Feb – To HNL TAFB Spackman No science 6.0 h Ferry Flight

Research Flight Summary

Project Date – Flight

Base Mission Scientist

AR characteristics Flight Hours & Drops

Type of mission Notes

18 Feb – RF08 HNL Spackman AR development 7.0 h, 14 drops IWV Remnants of Kona Low Gary Barnes and Vanessa Almanza (PhD student) onboard with Spackman

19 Feb – RF09 HNL Spackman AR development 6.7 h, 13 drops AR Source Region 3 UH graduate students flying; Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground

20 Feb – No fly HNL Spackman Down Day

21 Feb – RF10 to ANC

HNL Spackman AR forming and elongating NNE from HI toward AK

7.9 h, 14 drops Multiple transects across high IWV region

Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground

22 Feb – RF11 ANC Spackman Midlatitude AR in Gulf of Alaska

6.8 h, 1 drop TDR Survey along occluded front of extratropical cyclone

Painted precip with TDR for ~4 hr; Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground

24 Feb – RF12 to TAFB

ANC Spackman Moderate AR near OR ~7.5 h, 3 drops TDR Survey along Midlatitude AR Chief Scientist (Spackman) on ground

25 Feb – To FL TAFB NA No science ~5 h Ferry Flight

Research Flight Summary

400 km

Enhanced vapor flux in Atmos. river

coldair

Warm,HumidAR core

Dropsonde leg: 1000 kmStart: FL410

FL150; T < -12C

End: FL060

Adapted from F. M. Ralph (Scripps)

ExecutionPlan

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked FlightTAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb 2014

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked FlightTAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb 2014

1915-1954 Z: FL410Reflectivity

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked FlightTAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb 2014

1915-1954 Z: FL410North-south vertical cross-section of a east-west-wind-component analysis approximately along the flight track

RF06 – IVT Module, 3-Level Stacked FlightTAFB, 4.1 h, 4 drops, 14 Feb 2014

2058-2117 Z: ~FL200Higher-resolution vertical cross section of reflectivity

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

F+24 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

Way point determinations: NCEP – GFS Init 0600 UTC 21 Feb 2014F+18 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

Way point determinations: NCEP – GFS Init 0600 UTC 21 Feb 2014F+18 h valid for Friday valid 00Z 22 Feb 2014

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

21 Feb 18 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

22 Feb 00 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

22 Feb 06 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

22 Feb 12 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

22 Feb 18 UTC

RF10 – Poleward Developing ARScience Ferry from HNL to ANC, 7.9 h, 14 drops, 21 Feb

2014

23 Feb 00 UTC